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[QUOTE="AWP, post: 426220, member: 18"]
Grab your tinfoil.

I've seen the radar data and watched their history prior to that day. They were line-stepping with every mission in that area, pushing it further and further. One reason the Turks could respond so quickly is because they had -16's within 20 miles, they had full radar coverage of that area and none of this was a surprise to anyone. They had those -16's in place because of previous incidents.

After the shootdown the war changed dramatically. The Russians moved in their best SAM's, intercepts increased, and areas we worked with impunity found us sharing the airspace with a potential missile threat and Russian aircraft. We backed off and ceded control of the skies to the Russians. Their bombing stepped up in the aftermath of the shooting, which they could do because they were the sole users of supposedly joint airspace. Remember too that their bombing was largely unguided munitions against civilian areas.

The shootdown gave them cause to move in their best SAM's, upgrade their strike packages, and intended or not forced us to blink and give them the skies. It also let Putin see what we'd do if one of our allies stepped on its dick. The Russians won every battle in the aftermath of the shooting, planned or not.

I think they goaded the Turks into shooting at them.
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