# Insurgency Research



## Dienekes (Oct 4, 2016)

I am in a political science methods class this quarter, and a research topic I came up with was to examine insurgencies over the past century to attempt to discover any factors that determine the success or failure of an insurgency. Much has been done in the recent decade and some before on the factors of counterinsurgency success specifically with manpower and force densities, but I would like to take the 4 types of insurgency(political, military, traditional/religious, urban) as described in the "Guide to the Analysis of an Insurgency", and discover which factors directly affect chances of success such as type vs regions, manpower, # of state allies, funding, etc and whatever else I can find data on. This will unfortunately be fairly limited as a quarter is only 10 weeks, and as of now, I've only got 8 weeks left. As such, I won't be able to do an exhaustive literature review (Mao, Kilcullen, etc) or code any sort of strategic approaches for the actors in any conflict.

I was hoping that some of the history/military/academic buffs that frequent this corner of the forum might be able to point me toward some organizations with solid data sets on both insurgencies and counterinsurgencies or point out some scholarly articles they might remember. I'm making my way through Small Wars Journal (which is a wealth of information) and found a great article that mentioned a lot of similar research for me to check out, but it can only help to ask people who have had a vested interest in this sort of conflict from firsthand experience.

SWJ article: Woodford, Shawn. "Manpower and Counterinsurgency." _Small Wars Journal _(2016): 27 Sept. 2016


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## AWP (Oct 4, 2016)

Take a look at RAND.

RAND Corporation Provides Objective Research Services and Public Policy Analysis | RAND


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## Marauder06 (Oct 4, 2016)

I'd argue that all insurgencies are "political."

the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point might have some useful information.


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## JAG2 (Oct 4, 2016)

If you can get your hands on a copy of Inside Terrorism by Bruce Hoffman, you'll find a lot of great info and case studies.  It primarily discusses terrorism but dives into insurgencies as well.  In fact, I'm sure Hoffman has a few articles you can look up that specifically address insurgencies as well.


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## BloodStripe (Oct 4, 2016)

Freefalling said:


> Take a look at RAND.
> 
> RAND Corporation Provides Objective Research Services and Public Policy Analysis | RAND



I'd also recommend Center for a New American Security. https://www.cnas.org


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## JAG2 (Oct 4, 2016)

This might help a little: http://www.cfr.org/wars-and-warfare/invisible-armies-insurgency-tracker/p29917


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## AWP (Oct 4, 2016)

You have to admit, it is kind of cool the OP came here looking for help with a single paper and we just sourced 50% of a Master's thesis.


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## x SF med (Oct 4, 2016)

Freefalling said:


> You have to admit, it is kind of cool the OP came here looking for help with a single paper and we just sourced 50% of a Master's thesis.



Here?  Expecting to find brainpower here?  What was the OP thinking?  How many people come here and scream that we don't give out enough information?  :wall:


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## Marauder06 (Oct 4, 2016)

It's amazing what people can get if they come here with a little humility and a little prior research.


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## Marauder06 (Oct 4, 2016)

Unless you're being directed otherwise by your professor, I think a better way to frame your paper is to examine insurgencies by their goals instead of their organizational models.  Many insurgencies have flexible organizations; here they're "cellular," here they're "militarily organized."  But generally speaking, their goals are much more fixed.

Ted Robert Gurr's "Why Men Rebel" and the their of relative deprivation is old, but very useful.


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## Dienekes (Oct 4, 2016)

Freefalling said:


> You have to admit, it is kind of cool the OP came here looking for help with a single paper and we just sourced 50% of a Master's thesis.



Exactly why this is place was on the top of my list



Marauder06 said:


> Unless you're being directed otherwise by your professor, I think a better way to frame your paper is to examine insurgencies by their goals instead of their organizational models.  Many insurgencies have flexible organizations; here they're "cellular," here they're "militarily organized."  But generally speaking, their goals are much more fixed.
> 
> Ted Robert Gurr's "Why Men Rebel" and the their of relative deprivation is old, but very useful.



I agree with you, sir. I'm doing the literature review now, but I'll be confined to whatever established data sets that I can find. I have found a decent number with 100+ insurgencies since WWI with what seems to be plenty of relevant data so things look promising. The definition for insurgency for the study will be a version of the most occurring definition that I find while examining existing relevant research. I based the aforementioned 4-types  on that guide supposedly published by the CIA, but I see your point about focusing on the goals. Regardless, I appreciate all the help, especially the speed with which it was offered.


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## Marauder06 (Oct 4, 2016)

Dienekes said:


> Exactly why this is place was on the top of my list
> 
> 
> 
> I agree with you, sir. I'm doing the literature review now, but I'll be confined to whatever established data sets that I can find. I have found a decent number with 100+ insurgencies since WWI with what seems to be plenty of relevant data so things look promising. The definition for insurgency for the study will be a version of the most occurring definition that I find while examining existing relevant research. I based the aforementioned 4-types  on that guide supposedly published by the CIA, but I see your point about focusing on the goals. Regardless, I appreciate all the help, especially the speed with which it was offered.



Don't use that version of the guide, use this one.  As far as I can tell, it's more current. more legible, and makes more sense.  It's where the "goals" I mentioned in my last post come from (they immediately precede the listing of the "types").

IMO all insurgencies are innately political, calling an insurgency "political" is lot like saying "ATM machine."  It's unnecessarily redundant.  I know what it says in the book, but part of being in college is to challenge the "conventional wisdom," right?


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## policemedic (Oct 4, 2016)

You may want to look at:

Laqueur's The New Terrorism
Alexander's Combating Terrorism
Taylor's Behind the Mask (excellent source on the IRA and Sinn Fein)
Clarke's Terrorism Inc. (if you have an interest in following the money that feeds these groups)
Combs's Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century (good case studies; background)

I'm going to assume you're doing your research using your school's electronic library resources.  These are often excellent and let you get full-text of almost any article you need.  If you're not, I highly suggest going to the library and personally engaging the services of a professional librarian.  You would be amazed at how good they are at research and finding what you need.


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