# So What is Next?



## Marauder06 (Jun 28, 2012)

Let's assume for a second that Iraq isn't going to blow up in our faces, and that we ease out of the new westernmost province of Pakistan... I mean "Afghanistan, " on time.  What do you forsee as the next major conflagration involving US troops, against what enemy, in what location, and most importantly, when?


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## fox1371 (Jun 28, 2012)

Oh man, this is a tough one haha.  So many choices...


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## IT101 (Jun 28, 2012)

I don't know of a who, where, or when, but I predict it will start with a nuke (whether full-blown or a dirty bomb) that our weak economic sanctions failed to prevent.


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## AWP (Jun 28, 2012)

Whatever it is, whoever we fight, if it is an insurgency then we can go ahead and put an "L" up on the scoreboard. If it involves massive amounts of armor and aircraft with 3-6 months' lead time for a buildup then we're looking like the '72 Dolphins.

I almost expect some Grenada or Panama type nonsense to go down so we can rack up a "W" like the Harlem Globetrotters.


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## goon175 (Jun 28, 2012)

My money is on Africa.
-We have an increasingly larger presence there
-Public sentiment for the plight and suffering of the average African is building
-It's only a matter of time before some sort of terrorist attack is carried out on one of our bases there

Something going down in the Pacific AO is my second choice, just because we have seen a shift in emphasis to that area. We shall see...


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## Marauder06 (Jun 28, 2012)

goon175 said:


> My money is on Africa.
> -We have an increasingly larger presence there
> -Public sentiment for the plight and suffering of the average African is building
> -It's only a matter of time before some sort of terrorist attack is carried out on one of our bases there
> ...


 
Forgot to add something else, that may be the most important:

-They are starting to have things (oil, minerals, basing rights) that we GAS about.


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## goon175 (Jun 28, 2012)

I actually thought about that, but couldn't think of specifics and didn't want to write something I couldn't defend without more research first.


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## SpitfireV (Jun 28, 2012)

Nothing on the immediate horizon.


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## CDG (Jun 28, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Let's assume for a second that Iraq isn't going to blow up in our faces, and that we ease out of the new westernmost province of Pakistan... I mean "Afghanistan, " on time.


 
Well shit sir, if we're just gonna go off into fantasy land   ....... I predict we are engaged in a full scale space war on Tattoine within 6-10 years while also fighting a major land war in Asia.


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## AWP (Jun 28, 2012)

CDG said:


> Well shit sir, if we're just gonna go off into fantasy land  ....... I predict we are engaged in a full scale space war on Tattoine within 6-10 years while also fighting a major land war in Asia.


 
Better hope Etype's Team is sent to Asia...


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## RackMaster (Jun 28, 2012)

I don't want to give any thing away due to OPSEC but I hear there's going to be an anniversary bonfire in DC. ;)


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## Brill (Jun 28, 2012)

Syria.  We will be in a shooting war in Syria before the year is out.  This is not based on any classified info of course but just a hunch with the election close by.

This is all predicated IF Libya doesn't go to hell in a hand basket.


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## SpitfireV (Jun 28, 2012)

RackMaster said:


> I don't want to give any thing away due to OPSEC but I hear there's going to be an anniversary bonfire in DC. ;)


 
I'll bring a lamb for the BBQ!


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## pardus (Jun 28, 2012)

lindy said:


> Syria. We will be in a shooting war in Syria before the year is out. This is not based on any classified info of course but just a hunch with the election close by.
> 
> This is all predicated IF Libya doesn't go to hell in a hand basket.


 
If we go to Syryia we are either going to get our asses handed to us or it will be a conflict like Korea where we walk away limping and bleeding .
Russia, China and Iran will be side by side with the Syrians, not good for us with the state of the economy and the condition of the US armed forces at present.

I think Iran is still high on the list of a conflict zone if Israel lets loose in an attempt to stop a nuclear armed Iran. That we could deal with.


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## Brill (Jun 28, 2012)

My krystal ball says we'll be invited then get fucked handing out humanitarian supplies while searching for a war lord who controls the distribution of the aid.

Wait...that shit sounded really familiar.


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## QC (Jun 28, 2012)

Africa for me, Syria not do much. Africa has a lot of untapped resources in quite a few places, Congo for example. Not only mines and minerals, but also agriculturally as well. Personally I think the tyre kicking has already started there.


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## Brill (Jun 28, 2012)

China will not allow the US to cause any major issues in Africa.  War complicates the profit margin.


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## Scotth (Jun 28, 2012)

I don't see a major engagement anytime soon (at least the remainder of the decade). Special Ops will continue to have a high ops tempo and drones etc, basically a continuation of our foreign policy outside of Afghanistan. Low visibility and low causalities will be the goal.

Outside of another 9/11 type event there is no public support for a major engagement in Iran or Syria or anywhere else for that matter.


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## Brill (Jun 28, 2012)

Scotth said:


> *Low visibility* and low causalities will be the goal.


 
Really?


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## Marauder06 (Jun 28, 2012)

Scotth said:


> I don't see a major engagement anytime soon (at least the remainder of the decade). Special Ops will continue to have a high ops tempo and drones etc, basically a continuation of our foreign policy outside of Afghanistan. Low visibility and low causalities will be the goal.
> 
> Outside of another 9/11 type event there is no public support for a major engagement in Iran or Syria or anywhere else for that matter.


 
I've learned that the US population is fickle, and VERY easily influenced.  "Oh noes, there is a bad person in Africa!  We should send in the Marines!"   "We should be supporting the people of Syria!"  This is especially true since most Americans will never serve, and many Americans don't know anyone who has ever served.

I think we're one humanitarian disaster or one highly-publicized war crime away from another military misadventure.


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## pardus (Jun 28, 2012)

Africa will be easy if it goes down there.


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## SpitfireV (Jun 29, 2012)

It's nice to able to point at a region and say "Africa/Syria/Tattoonie" but at the end of the day there's no evidence *today* that these places *will* be the next place. All testicle gazing really.


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## pardus (Jun 29, 2012)

SpitfireV said:


> It's nice to able to point at a region and say "Africa/Syria/Tattoonie" but at the end of the day there's no evidence *today* that these places *will* be the next place. All testicle gazing really.


 
No shit Sherlock?  You going to tell us what colour the sky is too?


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## SpitfireV (Jun 29, 2012)

pardus said:


> No shit Sherlock? You going to tell us what colour the sky is too?


 
Depends on weather and shit and sometimes dark from the mass of drones over Pakistan


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## JBS (Jun 29, 2012)

After Iraq & Afghanistan taper off, Syria & Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan then Iran. The only thing that will change this is in the case of a massive terrorist attack at some key event or international city- in which case only the order or sequence will change. Timetables would just be greatly accelerated.

If you sticky this thread, we can come back to this topic in 2 years to see the accuracy of our analysis.


Russia will fold on Syria, and it is going to cost us something strategically.  Where Russia folds, China will follow.  The danger is that we've already shown our hand and Russia knows how juicy and succulent Syria has become, and so their bargaining posture has been greatly enhanced by the gleam in Clinton's eye.


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## DA SWO (Jun 29, 2012)

Too many possibilities:
Turkey drags us into Syria via Article V.
North Korea implodes, then explodes.
Piss-ant ops in Africa
U.K. vs Argentina


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## Brill (Jun 29, 2012)

SOWT said:


> Too many possibilities:
> Turkey drags us into Syria via Article V.
> North Korea implodes, then explodes.
> Piss-ant ops in Africa
> U.K. vs Argentina


 
"Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!"


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## SpitfireV (Jun 29, 2012)

SOWT said:


> U.K. vs Argentina


 
Won't happen and even if it did you guys wouldn't help.


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## pardus (Jun 30, 2012)

SpitfireV said:


> Won't happen and even if it did you guys wouldn't help.


 
What do you consider help? Did the USA help last time?


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## SpitfireV (Jun 30, 2012)

pardus said:


> What do you consider help? Did the USA help last time?


 
The US helped last time with imagary and Sidewinders. Supposedly Weinberger offered an aircraft carrier but it 1. turned down 2. doubtful it would have been approved by Congress. It sounds like they offered a lot of hardware. But that's in the past and I do think that with Obama's recent wording about the Falklands being Argentinian and the budget crisis that if AR were to try for round two that little would be forthcoming from this Administration. That's only my opinion though, and we all know what that's worth


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## pardus (Jun 30, 2012)

Gotcha, I don't necessarily think you're wrong either.


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## goon175 (Jun 30, 2012)

All I have to say, is that if we get another shindig going, I would like to request that it be in a country where air conditioning is prevalent, and the women aren't covered head to toe. Also, if we could also manage to find a country that does not keep their cattle in the living room, that would be fine by me as well.


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## Brill (Jun 30, 2012)

Did you just invade Scandinavia?


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## goon175 (Jun 30, 2012)

I didn't realize that that is what I just described, but being of Norse heritage, I can completely see why my subconscious would lead me there...haha


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## Salt USMC (Jun 30, 2012)

Yemen, or various east african countries.


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