# Election Forecast



## CQB (Jul 5, 2020)

The Economist newspaper has a nifty poll which I’ve been looking at for a bit. It has some fine grained sections & explanation.

Forecasting the US 2020 elections


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Jul 5, 2020)

I don't know, throw Kanye in the mix and we'll see LOL. I think these polls are similar to last election about this time. I registered as a Republican and voted for Marco Rubio in the primaries because he was forecasted as the most likely to beat Hillary...


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## Dame (Jul 5, 2020)

CQB said:


> The Economist newspaper has a nifty poll which I’ve been looking at for a bit. It has some fine grained sections & explanation.
> 
> Forecasting the US 2020 elections


Yeaaahhh, I wouldn't take that seriously. I don't know a single person who doesn't agree that Joe ain't all there.


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## Salt USMC (Jul 5, 2020)

As of this moment, the country is in a deep recession with unemployment at levels higher than the 2008 economic crisis, a pandemic killed 130,000 Americans in less than five months, and massive civil unrest is gripping the country.  

Whether or not you think that these things are the fault of the incumbent, it would be very difficult for anyone to win re-election under these conditions.  There’s only four months until the election, and things certainly can change, but it’s going to be difficult to overcome all of these negative externalities.


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## RackMaster (Jul 5, 2020)

I want to see a Kanye/Kardashian win.  No specific Kardashian, just rotate them in each week.  It's not the leadership you need, it's the leadership you deserve.


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## LimaPanther (Jul 5, 2020)

Ever time I get those party donation calls I always say that I am Independent and they hang up. To bad we can't seem to get a third party in the race.


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## RackMaster (Jul 5, 2020)

Think of it.  A Whitehouse Twitch channel and a 24hr Kardashian live feed.  You'll never get more people tuning into politics.


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## Devildoc (Jul 5, 2020)

I seem to recall some questions about the polls 4 years ago, Clinton was going to win in a landslide.

Now, with economy, the virus, the civil underest, a lot can happen in the next 4 months, but I am to believe these poles, when I can't believe the weather forecast 3 days out?


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## ThunderHorse (Jul 5, 2020)

I know we talked about this.  But especially more now.  The polls are bullshit. I no longer believe the people running polling companies are using the scientific process to get a wide enough sample.  Especially now since we're doxing and shaming people for being republicans.


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## CQB (Jul 5, 2020)

The article attached to the poll which I’ll try & locate pointed out that Bush Jnr., Clinton & Obama were behind at the same time as we are now. Also Trump hasn’t started campaigning & hasn’t accepted the nomination yet. It’s just an interesting poll from a source that has no love for Mr. 45. It’s updated pretty regularly & I‘m curious to see how accurate it turns out to be. I’m over the ditch with no skin in this one.


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## Marauder06 (Jul 5, 2020)

It's an interesting poll.  It reminds me a lot of very similar polls about four years ago.

Like Salty said, however, there are some concerning conditions relating to the economy, COVID, and agitation from the political left that are particularly concerning and are damaging President Trump.  If the election were today I'd still vote for him and I hope he wins, but I'm less confident about that outcome than I was 2-3 months ago.


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## AWP (Jul 6, 2020)

A Trump-Biden debate is the worst thing Joe can do. My money's on the Biden camp finding a way to cancel the debates because there's no way Biden can hang with Trump in a series of one-on-one debates. No amount of media moderator bias can save Joe under those circumstances and Trump will surge in the polls.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Jul 6, 2020)

^I certainly hope you're right. I want to watch because these debates are going to be a riot!


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## Devildoc (Jul 6, 2020)

I don't know this guy Helmut Norpoth, nor his models. I don't know his methodology or science. However, he's apparently extraordinarily accurate.  He is calling for a Trump win, like he did 4 years ago, and according to him it's not even close.

The Primary Model


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## Ooh-Rah (Jul 6, 2020)

ThunderHorse said:


> Especially now since we're doxing and shaming people for being republicans.


I keep hearing that word; had no idea what it meant.

Doxing - Wikipedia


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## Isiah6:8 (Jul 6, 2020)

The Doxing is atrocious.  It is why a lot of people refuse to post almost anything out there on social media or participate/give opinions on their actual thoughts.  Besides, there is a lot of opportunity in obscurity & volatility. 

Trump winning showed that both parties didn't really expect anyone other than Hillary to win the last election and hold office for 8 years.  They have pretty much just tossed up one and done candidates and thrown anything at the wall to see if it would stick against Trump.  

The only thing I see Biden doing that could potentially flip things on the head would be appointing a VP who will end up taking over the race.  Say the Dems try to pull the prep for person A and they go a shoot the moon route Trump isn't prepared for.  It would have to be outrageous, say Michelle Obama as VP, Biden bows out, Michelle runs as the ticket with Hillary as VP or Barack as VP.   Something outrageous like that which could set the game of musical chairs back in place as they were pre-Trump.


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## Marauder06 (Jul 6, 2020)

Isiah6:8 said:


> The only thing I see Biden doing that could potentially flip things on the head would be appointing a VP who will end up taking over the race.  Say the Dems try to pull the prep for person A and they go a shoot the moon route Trump isn't prepared for.  It would have to be outrageous, say Michelle Obama as VP, Biden bows out, Michelle runs as the ticket with Hillary as VP or Barack as VP.   Something outrageous like that which could set the game of musical chairs back in place as they were pre-Trump.



That would certainly make things VERY interesting.  

I think Joe Biden really wants to be president, though, and thinks that he can win.  So I could see (and have talked about on this site) Michelle Obama getting the nod for VP, but I can't see a situation where Biden steps down... at least not before the election.


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## AWP (Jul 6, 2020)

I think Biden picks a Black woman for his VP. If he wins, I more and more think he steps down at some point (between the 2-3 year mark sounds good) and the VP is "invested with the purple" to quote Gibbon.

First, he has to survive the debates. If Trump could get out of his own way for the next 6 months (about as likely as a cure for cancer), he'd steamroll Biden.


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## Devildoc (Jul 7, 2020)

The DNC, especially the left/fringe, see Biden as a placeholder, nothing more.  I think he understands his role in this.


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## SpongeBob*24 (Jul 7, 2020)

No science can predict the amount of crazy that will happen in the next 4 months.


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## Archangel27 (Jul 7, 2020)

SpongeBob*24 said:


> No science can predict the amount of crazy that will happen in the next 4 months.



I'm sure that this year will continue to surprise us.  I fear that a close contested election would be a very sour cherry on top of the 2020 sundae.


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## AWP (Jul 7, 2020)

Templar27A said:


> I'm sure that this year will continue to surprise us.  I fear that a close contested election would be a very sour cherry on top of the 2020 sundae.



I don't want Biden to win, but if he does it needs to be by a considerable margain. If Trump wins it needs to be by a considerable margain. 

I have doubts either outcome is possible.


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## Cookie_ (Jul 7, 2020)

The absolute worst thing that could happen in regards to election results is another "won electoral college but lost popular vote" type outcome.

That sort of split happening in the past 2 of 4 elections caused concerns, but in 3 of 5?

You'd see a much more concentrated push for a massive upheaval in our election process.


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