# Saudi-Iran Conflict



## ThunderHorse (May 15, 2019)

So, we doing this?  

Our coalition partners are suspending operations in Iraq-
German, Dutch military suspend training operations in Iraq amid...


And we're ordering non-essential personnel out of Iraq-
State Department Orders Nonessential U.S. Government Employees Out Of Iraq


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## amlove21 (May 15, 2019)

ThunderHorse said:


> So, we doing this?
> 
> Our coalition partners are suspending operations in Iraq-
> German, Dutch military suspend training operations in Iraq amid...
> ...


I sincerely hope not.


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## Devildoc (May 15, 2019)

Not in the mood for another life-sacrificing, good-money-after-bad foray in the ME that gets us...back to exactly where we are now...


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## Florida173 (May 15, 2019)

I appreciate the opportunities for my continued employment


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## Gunz (May 15, 2019)

From _Politico_:

"The New York Times first reported on Monday that Trump was considering sending as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East. The president on Tuesdaydismissed the report as “fake news,” adding that he would send *“a hell of a lot more troops than that”* if he decided to get aggressive with Iran."


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## CQB (May 15, 2019)

The sabotage of four oil tankers is an interesting development. It may be too early, but it doesn't look like Iran.

Claim of Attacks on 4 Oil Vessels Raises Tensions in Middle East

What we know about the 'sabotage' attacks off UAE's coast

Two Saudi oil tankers targeted in Sunday's 'sabotage attack' near Iran


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## Marauder06 (May 15, 2019)

Wrong enemy, wrong theater of operations.


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## Brill (May 15, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> Wrong enemy, wrong theater of operations.



Agree.

I think we should remain cognizant of the sources for these reports, given our experience over the last 3 years. Iran is a PITA but not a strategic enemy of the US.


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## Gunz (May 15, 2019)

We need to carpet-bomb Pakistan. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (May 15, 2019)

I was wondering when these tanker attacks were going to get a thread. 

Even if these keep happening, and we send some escorts along with getting some drones/recon over there to make sure it's Iran doing it, I still don't see the President doing much more than some targeted strikes.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (May 15, 2019)

Fuck Iran, I'll go... They got some payback for their efp-ied's.


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## AWP (May 15, 2019)

Smoking Jesus titty cinnamon, could we PLEASE have a war in Costa Rica or some such place? I hate the desert and could really use a change in climate. Can a brother profit from a war someplace nice for once?


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## Brill (May 16, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> If we get into a hard scrap with Iran, China is going to seize Taiwan. ..



Russia would take (back?) the Baltic’s...


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## Brill (May 16, 2019)

Note the networks and perfectly synced talking points across the board. Reminiscent of the Trump is a Russian puppet, no?


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## Gunz (May 16, 2019)

lindy said:


> Note the networks and perfectly synced talking points across the board. Reminiscent of the Trump is a Russian puppet, no?




OMG Trump's a war mongering dictator as well as a Russian spy, we better elect Joe Biden before the NRA and the Ku Klux Klan take over the internet and make us get jobs.


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## Brill (May 16, 2019)

Opposing opinion of “Trump’s beating the war drums”:

Here's how you'll know we're about to go to war with Iran — right now, we're not


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## Gunz (May 16, 2019)

It's just saber-rattling rhetoric from the Ronald Reagan school of How to Intimidate Your Enemies by Scaring the Shit Out of Them. Trump did it with North Korea. He gives them a taste of the same crap they spew out daily--only unlike _their _threats--they know we can turn their whole gridsquare into a smoking wasteland in about three days.


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## Cookie_ (May 16, 2019)




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## Gunz (May 16, 2019)

Cookie_ said:


> View attachment 27861




We're gonna send a hell of a lot more than that.


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## 11Bull (May 16, 2019)

More lions fighting for lambs. lets pack up and go home.


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## ThunderHorse (May 16, 2019)

Cookie_ said:


> View attachment 27861


Shinseki, for all his faults said that force plan was fucking stupid and that we needed a full mobilization plus coalition forces.  Iran, a much different animal.


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## AWP (May 16, 2019)

I moved the China/ Taiwan discussion to this thread:

China and Taiwan


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## Diamondback 2/2 (May 16, 2019)

I love how everyone acts like Iran is some big deal. They literally had a stalemate with Iraq, and we walked over Iraq twice. Iran isn't shit in a straight up conventional war... Hints their proxy terrorism bullshit.

We could bring them to their knees with just airwar alone, much less a full on land war. Iran is the kid that acts tough in school until the true tough kid knocks him on his ass.

Why we didn't kick the fuck out of them during G.W's days is fucking beyond me.  As many of my buddies who are dead and disfigured because of those sons of bitches...

FUCK IRAN!


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## Marauder06 (May 17, 2019)

I think our main concern isn't so much that Iran can hurt us directly (although we shouldn't kid ourselves about their ability to do that), it's that they can hurt people and things we care about.

A war between the US and Iran would cause the price of oil to go through the roof and would cause economic drama throughout the world.  Our economy can probably take it, it will be a lot harder for a lot of our allies.

Iran and its proxies have the ability to make life very hard for the regimes we care about in Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, among others.  Their terrorist wing is adept and deeply experienced, and has the ability to carry out attacks worldwide.  

And finally, there's nothing like a big war with a major enemy to shore up a despotic regime's hold on power.  Any chance of a "Persian Spring" or genuine reformers seizing power in Iran goes out the window once Tomahawks start coming in.

I don't like Iran and I'm not saying they don't deserve a good helping of Freedom.  I just think there are a couple of actors who deserve it more, and are more of a threat to us in the long term.


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## Brill (May 17, 2019)

In my opinion.

@Marauder06 , the Mullahs understand asymmetric warfare and will accept the martyrs inside Iran proper but hit us at our weakest points.

Attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities - Wikipedia


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## Gordus (May 17, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> .... it will be a lot harder for a lot of our allies.



Indeed. It would for instance be very bad news for the South Caucasus and some nations around the Caspian Sea, which are partialy severely dependent on energy supply from Iran and latter is generaly an important trade partner to other countries in the region. Could be very dramatic.

lindy is right. The cost of occupying Iran would in all likelyhood dramaticaly outweigh the benefits moreso than past operations. The invasion may not be a great issue but a consequent decade of grueling guerilla war with far more experienced, sophisticated and fanatical insurgency groups.


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## ThunderHorse (May 17, 2019)

How exactly would you propose an Invasion of Iran?  

Invading would be dumber than shit.  They'd fight us conventionally, it wouldn't be some shit like Iraq was over in three weeks either.  We'd probably win a tactical fight, but the insurgency there would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like pre-school.


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## Marauder06 (May 17, 2019)

I don't think we would invade.  God I hope we wouldn't.  There is nothing at all that we need in that country, and I don't want to get into another civil war in someone else's country.  

If someone were to ask me (no one has, and no one will) I'd suggest we bomb the crap out their Air Force, Navy, intelligence infrastructure, party HQ, missile force, atomic program, and every bit of the IRGC-QF (and anything similar) that we could find.  I'd try to leave the economy, police, army, and major institutions intact so the country doesn't complete disintegrate.  I'd also go hard after proxies in places like Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Venezuela, and Yemen (and anything we know about in the US) in order to mitigate their response.  I'd try to set conditions for a regime change but I think that's going to be a lot less likely after things get kinetic.


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## R.Caerbannog (May 17, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> I don't think we would invade.  God I hope we wouldn't.  There is nothing at all that we need in that country, and I don't want to get into another civil war in someone else's country.
> 
> If someone were to ask me (no one has, and no one will) I'd suggest we bomb the crap out their Air Force, Navy, intelligence infrastructure, party HQ, missile force, atomic program, and every bit of the IRGC-QF (and anything similar) that we could find.  I'd try to leave the economy, police, army, and major institutions intact so the country doesn't complete disintegrate.  I'd also go hard after proxies in places like Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Venezuela, and Yemen (and anything we know about in the US) in order to mitigate their response.  I'd try to set conditions for a regime change but I think that's going to be a lot less likely after things get kinetic.


On top of what you said, what about killing off Iran's political/religious elite and their families? It's kinda hard to derkha derkha and lead an islamic revolution when your holy figureheads and their families are atomized in their palaces.


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## Marauder06 (May 17, 2019)

Martyrdom is very powerful, especially in that culture.  I'd rather leave them in place and have to lead their country out of this mess.  If we start whacking their leaders, even more-radical peeps will probably take their place, and the populace could be motivated to fight longer, and harder, out of vengeance.

Also, we saw in Iraq what happens when you remove everyone who knows how to run a country, from the country.  Third-tier and under, with maybe some top-tier military targets.


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## Gordus (May 17, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> If someone were to ask me (no one has, and no one will) I'd suggest we bomb the crap out their Air Force, Navy, intelligence infrastructure, party HQ, missile force, atomic program, and every bit of the IRGC-QF (and anything similar) that we could find.  I'd try to leave the economy, police, army, and major institutions intact so the country doesn't complete disintegrate.  I'd also go hard after proxies in places like Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Venezuela, and Yemen (and anything we know about in the US) in order to mitigate their response.  I'd try to set conditions for a regime change but I think that's going to be a lot less likely after things get kinetic.



In similar discussions in 2008 when things were heating up in Georgia and not even a day into the war, when I lost color on my face knowing perfectly well the Russians are about to stomp us, I kept asking why such retaliatory action were not considered and done in place of letting things escalate into a full blown war and the idiocy of decision making really plaguing me for years.
It's never just about that. There is always some profit and benefit of whatever shape or form to gain from a conflict for at least one if not a multitude of entities.


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## R.Caerbannog (May 17, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> Martyrdom is very powerful, especially in that culture.  I'd rather leave them in place and have to lead their country out of this mess.  If we start whacking their leaders, even more-radical peeps will probably take their place, and the populace could be motivated to fight longer, and harder, out of vengeance.
> 
> Also, we saw in Iraq what happens when you remove everyone who knows how to run a country, from the country.  Third-tier and under, with maybe some top-tier military targets.


I mean we don't have to kill everyone. As much as the Mullahs like to play up the martyrdom card, not sure they want that for themselves and their immediate families. We don't have to kill everyone, just the guys with the biggest mouths and the key personnel that excel at spreading terrorism abroad.

Or is that what you meant by the 'third tier and under with some top tier... targets' part?


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## Brill (May 18, 2019)

Gordus said:


> Indeed. It would for instance be very bad news for the South Caucasus and some nations around the Caspian Sea, which are partialy severely dependent on energy supply from Iran and latter is generaly an important trade partner to other countries in the region. Could be very dramatic.



Uh, no. The West would not allow Iranian participation in developing the oil & gas fields led by BP.

Azerbaijani oil production is still increasing and both Georgia and Turkey are enjoying transit fees from the BTC pipeline. Kazakhstan will most likely ship their oil via the pipeline too.



> The oil production in Azerbaijan in 2019 will remain at the same level as last year and will average 800,000 barrels per day, the OPEC January report says.
> 
> The cartel’s report says that according to the Ministry of Energy, in 2018, Azerbaijan produced an average of 792,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day, which is 2 percent more than in 2017.



OPEC announces forecasts on oil production in Azerbaijan in 2019


Regarding passive income via pipeline:

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.525.1518&rep=rep1&type=pdf



> On the economic and social benefits account, once the pipeline becomes fully operational, Azerbaijan will be the main beneficiary of the sale of its oil in international markets, collecting (at prices of 2005) about $29 billion per year in oil revenues, while Georgia and Turkey, in the long run, will respectively collect transit fees of $600 million and $300 million per year on average during the lifetime of the project. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, the countries the pipeline will traverse, as well as part owners in the fields, could collect more than $150 billion in revenue from oil, gas and transit fees from 2005 to 2024, according to estimates by BP.



http://sam.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Tuncay-Babal%A6-.pdf

But, the Iranians may yet stir up trouble in the area. From 2012:



> The arrests come two months after two men were arrested in Azerbaijan, Iran’s northern neighbour, on suspicion of plotting to attack foreigners, including the Israeli ambassador and a rabbi, and after *bomb plots in India, Thailand and Georgia* that Israel blamed on Tehran.



Azerbaijan arrests 22 suspected of spying for Iran


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## Brill (May 18, 2019)

Gordus said:


> In similar discussions in 2008 when things were heating up in Georgia and not even a day into the war, when *I lost color on my face knowing perfectly well the Russians are about to stomp us*,..





საქართველი ხარ?


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## Gordus (May 18, 2019)

lindy said:


> Uh, no. The West would not allow Iranian participation in developing the oil & gas fields led by BP.



Fact is, the entire South Caucasus is on very good terms with Iran in regards to ongoing and planned bilateral and trilateral trade agreements, energy supply, transit development. Georgia due to it's strategic location has also been aiming to become a transmission hub for electricity to the entire region. That sphere has been a focal point for economic cooperation, with talks and deals extended to Iran for years now.

Iran and Armenia propose gas transit to Georgia 
Power Experts from Armenia, Russia, Iran and Georgia to Consider Electricity Corridor - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator 

My point is. 
If you insist on making a move, than it would be 'probably' better to do so before much greater and more wide spread damage is dealt. 
Or don't do anything of the sort, at all. 
Just my 2 cents.



lindy said:


> საქართველი ხარ?



It's *ქართველი  

and yes. Why, you too ?


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## Brill (May 18, 2019)

Gordus said:


> My point is.
> If you insist on making a move, than it would be 'probably' better to do so before much greater and more wide spread damage is dealt.
> Or don't do anything of the sort, at all.
> Just my 2 cents.







> Georgia due to it's strategic location has also been aiming to become a transmission hub for electricity to the entire region.



Chechens in Pankisi aren’t too keen on that! Or new hydroelectric plants anyway.

I know the recent rescinding of the visa requirement for Iranians there definitely raised some eyebrows.

მე ქართულ ენას ვსწავლობ. პატარა ვლაფარაკობ, მაგრამ ცუდად.

Does that ^^^ make sense?


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## Gordus (May 18, 2019)

lindy said:


> Chechens in Pankisi aren’t too keen on that! Or new hydroelectric plants anyway.



Oh yeah, I've seen that, and Georgian law enforcement has certainly *felt* it.

Those people are lucky they are not dealing with an MIA under the the former administration. Throwing massive rocks at the police, people who are just doing their job, burning their equipment ? they wouldn't have taken that lightly 10 years ago.



> I know the recent rescinding of the visa requirement for Iranians there definitely raised some eyebrows.



Georgia has been way too lax with it's border policies anyway since .... forever.

I think some serious assistance in that area and state security service would be very appreciated and beneficial also for the US. Particularily when it comes to fighting terrorism.



> მე ქართულ ენას ვსწავლობ. პატარა ვლაფარაკობ, მაგრამ ცუდად.



Yes. Not bad at all actualy. Are you deployed / planning to deploy there ? heard exercise Agile Spirit is around the corner.


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## AWP (May 18, 2019)

R.Caerbannog said:


> On top of what you said, what about killing off Iran's political/religious elite and their families? It's kinda hard to derkha derkha and lead an islamic revolution when your holy figureheads and their families are atomized in their palaces.





Marauder06 said:


> Martyrdom is very powerful, especially in that culture.  I'd rather leave them in place and have to lead their country out of this mess.  If we start whacking their leaders, even more-radical peeps will probably take their place, and the populace could be motivated to fight longer, and harder, out of vengeance.



If the change is internal, the people will take care of the elite and their families. No hand wringing, just body stackin'. We can help create those conditions doing just what Mara said: kill off the government's ability to project power and that allows the common man a chance at success.

Our SEAD/DEAD campaign with -22's and -35's would obilterate their air defenses and that's before we talk about standoff capabilities in the B-52's, B-2's, and our Navy in the Arabian Gulf. The UAE has arguably the best F-16's flying and the Saudi F-15's aren't shabby. Qatar is trash and I wouldn't consider them as part of any strategy. 72 hours and Iran's air defenses are sooty craters and smears in the desert. Local AAA/ SAM's would get eaten alive by SDB's and our Air Force has a LOT of experience deploying those against ISIS.

If we stay off the ground, our exposure is minimal.


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## amlove21 (May 18, 2019)

@AWP hit on this but I’d like to highlight- Iran isn’t a new and special threat. We have done this before, learned from AAR and gotten better. These last 17 years, we have learned and gotten more lethal, at least as far as DEAD/SEAD is concerned. Styles make fights- their style matches up poorly against our strengths.

I have no desire to get into this fight; but it’s Iran’s first fight with our tactics. It’s not our first fight against an enemy like Iran’s tactics will most likely be.


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## Brill (May 19, 2019)

AWP said:


> If the change is internal, the people will take care of the elite and their families. No hand wringing, just body stackin'. We can help create those conditions doing just what Mara said: kill off the government's ability to project power and that allows the common man a chance at success.
> 
> Our SEAD/DEAD campaign with -22's and -35's would obilterate their air defenses and that's before we talk about standoff capabilities in the B-52's, B-2's, and our Navy in the Arabian Gulf. The UAE has arguably the best F-16's flying and the Saudi F-15's aren't shabby. Qatar is trash and I wouldn't consider them as part of any strategy. 72 hours and Iran's air defenses are sooty craters and smears in the desert. Local AAA/ SAM's would get eaten alive by SDB's and our Air Force has a LOT of experience deploying those against ISIS.
> 
> If we stay off the ground, our exposure is minimal.



You’re in a much better position than I, hence the question.

What about their S-300s? TOMBSTONE ain’t no joke although the IAF appears to be able to defeat it...better than the that IL-20 crew.


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## AWP (May 19, 2019)

lindy said:


> You’re in a much better position than I, hence the question.
> 
> What about their S-300s? TOMBSTONE ain’t no joke although the IAF appears to be able to defeat it...better than the that IL-20 crew.



Modern Russian stuff is good, but they've also painted our a/c with their RF.  I don't see our AF sitting around and ignoring the threat and a counter. -35 pilots walk around with a "Wild Weasel/ YGBSM" patch...I can't envision them without a means to defeat modern Russian SAMs.

I bust on the AF, but I refuse to believe it's threat model stops at SA-2's and/or SA-6's with radar guided AAA as a secondary layer. Syria isn't just about keeping Assad in power, the technical battle is immense and unheralded; Russian ELINT isn't half-assed.


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## ThunderHorse (May 19, 2019)

amlove21 said:


> View attachment 27917
> 
> Quit it. Seriously.



Alright, Mr. President.  Issue the recall orders.


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## Ooh-Rah (May 22, 2019)

Oh goodie.  

US officials: Plan may send up to 10,000 troops to Mideast


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## Gunz (May 23, 2019)

lindy said:


> საქართველი ხარ?



Tongues on the Cauc?





AWP said:


> If the change is internal, the people will take care of the elite and their families. No hand wringing, just body stackin'. We can help create those conditions doing just what Mara said: kill off the government's ability to project power and that allows the common man a chance at success.
> 
> Our SEAD/DEAD campaign with -22's and -35's would obilterate their air defenses and that's before we talk about standoff capabilities in the B-52's, B-2's, and our Navy in the Arabian Gulf. The UAE has arguably the best F-16's flying and the Saudi F-15's aren't shabby. Qatar is trash and I wouldn't consider them as part of any strategy. 72 hours and Iran's air defenses are sooty craters and smears in the desert. Local AAA/ SAM's would get eaten alive by SDB's and our Air Force has a LOT of experience deploying those against ISIS.
> 
> If we stay off the ground, our exposure is minimal.




Even a limited, punitive strike at their nuke sites would solve a few issues. By that I mean using their belligerence as an excuse to wipe their nuclear ambitions out for decades. Then drop the mike and go home.


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## Kheenbish (May 23, 2019)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Oh goodie.
> 
> US officials: Plan may send up to 10,000 troops to Mideast



Looks like this isn't the case from a recent report. 

Trump doubts U.S needs to send more troops to the Middle East


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## RackMaster (Jun 10, 2019)

Seems a coincidence that this is released after Trump visits Britain.  Building evidence against the Iranian's. 

The biggest part of this story, that probably won't get much coverage is that it all went down during the Iran Deal.  And kept quiet to protect the deal. 



> His identity was kept secret, as were the whole findings until now - possibly in an effort to keep the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 alive.



Hizbollah 'stockpiled tons of explosives on outskirts of London


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## R.Caerbannog (Jun 10, 2019)

RackMaster said:


> Seems a coincidence that this is released after Trump visits Britain.  Building evidence against the Iranian's.
> 
> The biggest part of this story, that probably won't get much coverage is that it all went down during the Iran Deal.  And kept quiet to protect the deal.
> 
> ...


Whoop! One more notch of goodwill and understanding for the religion of peace, death cults gonna death cult. Sucks that so many of our politicians are willing to sell us out to appease these savages.


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## Gunz (Jun 10, 2019)

"An appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile; hoping it will eat him last." -- Churchill


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## AWP (Jun 13, 2019)

First the two ships off the UAE and now...another two ships, this time off the coast of Iran.

2 oil tankers damaged in suspected attack in the Gulf of Oman, crew evacuated



> Two oil tankers were damaged in a suspected attack off the Gulf of Oman early Thursday, according to multiple reports.
> 
> The U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet told Reuters it was assisting two tankers in the Gulf of Oman after receiving two distress calls. Details of the incident were unclear, but one of the operators made an unconfirmed report that a torpedo had hit its ship, Reuters reported.



ETA: Geography matters...


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## Gunz (Jun 13, 2019)

Secret Scuba Quds Force with Great Prophet limpet mines?

Obviously, they don't want a catastrophic oil spill in their backyard so they're doing just enough damage to intimidate. They need to man up and attack a US warship and let the 5th Fleet get some hammer time.


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## Brill (Jun 13, 2019)

AWP said:


> First the two ships off the UAE and now...another two ships, this time off the coast of Iran.
> 
> 2 oil tankers damaged in suspected attack in the Gulf of Oman, crew evacuated
> 
> ...



Not trolling but serious question: why do We care? It’s not our ships or our fracking oil.

Weekly Preliminary Crude Imports by Top 10 Countries of Origin (ranking based on 2017 Petroleum Supply Monthly data)

We should left the Saudis and Emiratis take ALL of Yemen and just ask Tehran how are things in Damascus and Beirut. Just send the tweet from POTUS account but in Hebrew.


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## Phoenix15 (Jun 13, 2019)

lindy said:


> Not trolling but serious question: why do We care? It’s not our ships or our fracking oil.
> 
> Weekly Preliminary Crude Imports by Top 10 Countries of Origin (ranking based on 2017 Petroleum Supply Monthly data)
> 
> We should left the Saudis and Emiratis take ALL of Yemen and just ask Tehran how are things in Damascus and Beirut. Just send the tweet from POTUS account but in Hebrew.



With our recent energy independence and our reliance on ME oil nearly eliminated, what is the USA's new primary national interest in the ME? 

GWOT?
Israeli/Arab peace process? 
Sunni/Shia proxy wars?

Side thought: Since we don't absolutely need Sunni stability/oil anymore, do we even need to pick a side in these proxy wars and arms deals? Or does our relationship with Israel dictate that we continue to push back Tehran and defacto side with the Sunnis?


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## Brill (Jun 13, 2019)

Phoenix15 said:


> With our recent energy independence and our reliance on ME oil nearly eliminated, what is the USA's new primary national interest in the ME?
> 
> GWOT?
> Israeli/Arab peace process?
> ...



I’d argue it’s a FID thing, not GWOT, in the Gulf area but Iraq doesn’t want us there anymore. Let Iran & Russia have it. Jordanian chicks are hotter anyway. At least King Abdullah has chicken (ref to KFC in Amman)!

Somebody’s gotta buy all of NRAs guns!!!


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## AWP (Jun 13, 2019)

lindy said:


> Not trolling but serious question: why do We care? It’s not our ships or our fracking oil.



Global economic implications, exisiting relationships with Gulf nations, plus the saber-rattling coming from Bolden. Stuff like this can suck us in whether we like it or not. That's probably what Iran wants, they are smart and have watched Putin's global line-stepping where the US is concerned.

The Saudis and UAE have slowly diverging ideas of what to do in Yemen. They can't handle Yemen so we know they can't do anything with Iran. If this keeps up we're getting sucked in like we were in the late 80's.


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## ThunderHorse (Jun 13, 2019)

If they do a few more of those, maybe my CHK holdings will recover and I can get out...


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## Brill (Jun 14, 2019)

AWP said:


> Global economic implications, exisiting relationships with Gulf nations, plus the saber-rattling coming from Bolden. Stuff like this can suck us in whether we like it or not. That's probably what Iran wants, they are smart and have watched Putin's global line-stepping where the US is concerned.
> 
> The Saudis and UAE have slowly diverging ideas of what to do in Yemen. They can't handle Yemen so we know they can't do anything with Iran. If this keeps up we're getting sucked in like we were in the late 80's.



I really hope we sit this one out.


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## Kraut783 (Jun 14, 2019)

*US releases video it claims shows Iran removing unexploded mine from Gulf tanker*

"In the video, a smaller boat is shown coming up to the side of the Japanese-owned tanker. An individual stands up on the bow of the boat and can be seen removing an object from the tanker's hull. The US says that object is likely an unexploded mine."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/us-images-iranian-boat-removing-mine/index.html


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Jun 14, 2019)

So...what do we think guys??

I'm going to say it was Iran, not some random attack from jihadists trying to start another war. Oil prices barely budged, so there's that.


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## Box (Jun 14, 2019)

"PULL DOWN THE FLAG AND PUT ON CIVILIAN CLOTHES SO NOBODY KNOWS ITS US" actually sounds like a viable deception plan that might be employed by the Iranians.


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## Brill (Jun 15, 2019)

Iran tried to shoot down US Reaper drone that arrived on scene of oil tanker attacks: officials

All Iranian drone launch and support vehicles in the Gulf region should be rendered “inoperable”.

Any Farsi linguists able to translate “You fuck on me? I gonna fuck on you!”


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## Gunz (Jun 15, 2019)

They fire a _Strela_ at one of our drones...and miss...then it's only fair that we respond with an excessive strike package. I suggest taking out all their nuclear installations and capabilities...and get back in time for Happy Hour.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Jun 15, 2019)

If I see one more "Iran has nothing to gain" or "the guys weren't wearing Iranian military uniforms" comment I'm going to blow a gasket...


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Jun 15, 2019)

Fuck Iran.


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## AWP (Jun 16, 2019)

My Facebook feed is lit up with the best one yet: Bolton and Trump orchestrated a false flag operation to draw us into a war with Iran.

We bombed two tankers and the Iranians played into our hands by coming out to pick up the unexploded mine and attempting to shoot down an MQ-9?

I'm no fan of Trump's, but this is absurd.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Jun 16, 2019)

^Go look at Reddit...


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## Kaldak (Jun 16, 2019)

lindy said:


> Any Farsi linguists able to translate “You fuck on me? I gonna fuck on you!”



Sent to my wife for you.


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## amlove21 (Jun 16, 2019)

Hot take- no matter how hard everyone wants to push it, we aren’t going to war with Iran. In any real sense.


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## Kraut783 (Jun 16, 2019)

Nope, probably just some proxies wars/conflicts/skirmishes..etc.


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## amlove21 (Jun 16, 2019)

Kraut783 said:


> Nope, probably just some proxies wars/conflicts/skirmishes..etc.


Man. If you think we aren’t engaged in those already. 

But seriously, we aren’t doing shit with Iran. This is the late 80’s all over again.


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## Kraut783 (Jun 16, 2019)

No, I know we are...but believe there is more coming. Iraq govt is nothing but Shia and Iran’s puppets.


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## CQB (Jun 17, 2019)

I have said it some time ago here 'don't do Iran'...blech...fun fact: the Orange Man has not instigated war on a major scale, unlike a Clinton or a Bush, but (digression) his weaponising of economic tools is the boss. Mexico: a threat of tarriffs over immigration; preferential rules over trade with India cancelled; Chinese tarifffs increased (sukadik CCP) & an embargo on Iran...the USA has not fired a shot.  BOOYAH!


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## Gunz (Jun 17, 2019)

Nothing but saber-rattling with regard to Iran. The same MO with NK a while back. But Trump is perceived by some of our adversaries, allies and a number of Liberals as maybe crazy enough to back up the big talk.

And I don't believe the Iranians are insane enough to provoke my fantasy excessive retaliatory strike package. Although it's fun to think about.


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## Box (Jun 17, 2019)

I think the real danger lurking in the shadows is behavior that triggers an overt and deliberate cyber attack.  None of the real "players" want anything that remotely looks like a shooting war because everyone loses the minute primers start getting dented. 
Launch a cyber attack that shuts down a major power grid or a communications hub if you really want to see some uncontrollable global destruction. 

Use the interwebz to "Turn off" all the power in Tehran - even if it is only for a few hours.  Global markets will go batshit crazy and people will start rioting in the streets.  Think of the recent protests in Hong Kong but then inject a little bit of Stephanie Rawlings-Blake level "_we also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well_" and see how it impacts the entire planet. 

Turn off the power in Los Angles for just 45 minutes during rush hour - and try to convince me that 63 million clint0n voters wont march on DC with torches and pitchforks.
...they wont want retaliation brought on Iran or Russia or China - they will turn all of that hatred inward.

Just like the tankers are Trumps fault now - not surrendering to Iran's bully tactics are why those tankers were hit; the peace loving Iranians are just signaling OrangeManBad.   Turn off the internet for 20 minutes so modern day america cant rant and rave about the President Trumps Tweets and every purple haired vagina hat wearing nut job in the US will be at the steps of city hall looking for blood.  Not because a belligerent force attacked the USA but because OrangeManBad.  THAT is the clear and present danger that I see from my foxhole.

Shooting wars aren't as much of a threat as they used to be - nobody wants to get into a shooting war because its just so damn messy.  Now that Twitter has been weaponized the next "real" war will be fought in binary.  Halting the the global Twitter Feed would be worse than crossing the streams on a Ghost-Busters proton-pack...
*Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light. Total protonic reversal. *


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## RackMaster (Jun 17, 2019)

Box said:


> I think the real danger lurking in the shadows is behavior that triggers an overt and deliberate cyber attack.  None of the real "players" want anything that remotely looks like a shooting war because everyone loses the minute primers start getting dented.
> Launch a cyber attack that shuts down a major power grid or a communications hub if you really want to see some uncontrollable global destruction.
> 
> Use the interwebz to "Turn off" all the power in Tehran - even if it is only for a few hours.  Global markets will go batshit crazy and people will start rioting in the streets.  Think of the recent protests in Hong Kong but then inject a little bit of Stephanie Rawlings-Blake level "_we also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well_" and see how it impacts the entire planet.
> ...



If there's a significant enough of a cyber attack, primers will be dented.


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## Box (Jun 17, 2019)

Yes indeed - if and when such a significant and successful cyber attack ever DOES happen - it is going to cause A LOT of dented primers...
The level of chaos caused by a "real" cyber attack will make it a monumental task to stop the denting of primers.


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## Brill (Jun 17, 2019)

Box said:


> Yes indeed - if and when such a significant and successful cyber attack ever DOES happen - it is going to cause A LOT of dented primers...
> The level of chaos caused by a "real" cyber attack will make it a monumental task to stop the denting of primers.



The Box is half full...at least we’d have an excuse to not send up the +20 slide CONOPs!!!


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## AWP (Jun 17, 2019)

lindy said:


> ...at least we’d have an excuse to not send up the +20 slide CONOPs!!!



It would be denied regardless.


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## SpitfireV (Jun 18, 2019)

I get the feeling this isn't the Iranian government, as such, but rather one of the RG strands going a bit rogue.


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## Gordus (Jun 18, 2019)

I'm pretty sure the Israelis have already tried almost everything that was proposed here. Why not ask them ?  

About single rogue RG faction. That sounds too novel-y. Really I don't think anything happens without Khamenei's knowledge or approval.


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## Gunz (Jun 18, 2019)

Let's see...page 241, Vol. 6, DHS National Cyber Incident Response Plan:


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## AWP (Jun 20, 2019)

Iran smoked a $130 million US Navy drone that was in international airspace... pretty sure that's a bombin'.


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## RackMaster (Jun 20, 2019)

AWP said:


> Iran smoked a $130 million US Navy drone that was in international airspace... pretty sure that's a bombin'.



Just saw on CNN that Trump authorized strikes but then "pulled back immediately".  Whatever that's supposed to mean and how much we can trust CNN.


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## ThunderHorse (Jun 21, 2019)

I saw the NYT reported it first.  Would be nice if these assholes just held their copy and allow the operation to happen instead of just trying to get some clicks.  If I can't trust the DoD or White House to shut up...you'd hope some other, "smarter" people would do it for them...I guess not.


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## Brill (Jun 21, 2019)

AWP said:


> Iran smoked a $130 million US Navy drone that was in international airspace... pretty sure that's a bombin'.



Looking forward to hearing about this weeks meeting!..minus the bathroom SITREP.


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## Brill (Jun 21, 2019)

ThunderHorse said:


> I saw the NYT reported it first.  Would be nice if these assholes just held their copy and allow the operation to happen instead of just trying to get some clicks.  If I can't trust the DoD or White House to shut up...you'd hope some other, "smarter" people would do it for them...I guess not.



But he’s so mentally unstable that he’ll bumble us into a war with Iran? I’m confused: he’s either a lunatic with an itchy trigger finger who wants to exterminate all the brown people or he’s a mentally unstable fascist dictator who just wants wage war.


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## Gunz (Jun 21, 2019)

RackMaster said:


> Just saw on CNN that Trump authorized strikes but then "pulled back immediately".  Whatever that's supposed to mean and how much we can trust CNN.




It smacks of Trump's exaggerated interpretation of Ronald Reagan's sound-check: "Bombing begins in five minutes..." In other words, talk openly about retaliatory strikes, watch the Iranians soil themselves, then act like you got talked out of it.


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## AWP (Jun 21, 2019)

I'd be willing to bet that we pulled back on strikes because we had to sort out targeting, proportionality, etc. If something doesn't cook off in the next 24 hours I will be surprised.

And no, I'm not gleaning any of this from work, just stepping through timelines and logic. Creating the ATO will be a massive undertaking in its own right.


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## Gunz (Jun 21, 2019)

AWP said:


> I'd be willing to bet that we pulled back on strikes because we had to sort out targeting, proportionality, etc. *If something doesn't cook off in the next 24 hours I will be surprised.*
> 
> And no, I'm not gleaning any of this from work, just stepping through timelines and logic. Creating the ATO will be a massive undertaking in its own right.



When you say stuff like this, deferring to your experience, I start heading for the bomb shelter.


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## Devildoc (Jun 21, 2019)

POTUS this morning on the news said military action is the last thing he wants, he campaigned on getting us out of "endless wars in the middle east."  Not sure if he is pushing back-channel diplomacy, sanctions, arm-twisting, all of the above or what, but I am having a hard time reading the tea leaves, er, 4D chess.


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## Gordus (Jun 21, 2019)

Don't think it's gonna escalate over the downing of a single drone. But it does call for proportionate retaliation if it was international waters, imo.

I admit that I would also not be against putting an end to the contineous antagonistic behaviour and shadow wars of Iran. Following the incident they have announced to speed up their nuclear programs and I genuinely doubt it's all for good intentions.

Doesn't have to be a full blown war. Would probably also not be the best decision if you want to be re-elected.

But there are probably other ways to make them reconsider their policies, and yeah I think that's necessary.


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## AWP (Jun 21, 2019)

Ocoka said:


> When you say stuff like this, deferring to your experience, I start heading for the bomb shelter.



Even something as "simple" as hitting an IRCG naval base and a few SAM sites, especially the one that downed the Triton is what I envision. You could go "whole hog" with a response including taking our their nuclear facilities. OR...a small strike that goad's Iran into something larger and THEN go after the big targets. There are a lot of different ways to go.

Think of the timeline too: Meetings CONUS yesterday which is the nighttime here.Planners can have options, but until the word comes down they have an "80% solution" so to speak. By the time the meeting breaks up, the sun's rising or about to rise over here...and we wouldn't strike during the day. An overnight pause in the US gives CENTCOM time to pull together options for the JCS and SECDEF to present to POTUS.

You also don't wait a week before retaliating, so you have to go within the first 24-48 hours, maybe 72, before your window passes.

We'll see. Maybe there is a desire to do absolutely nothing militarily and we'll sort out sanctions or something. My money's on the F-35A's combat debut (Marines already took the B into combat)....but I really hope I'm wrong.

ETA: Fox is saying we were ready to go last night and almost did. Interesting. Targeting and planning cells must have been humping...


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## 757 (Jun 21, 2019)

“The Iranian national leadership was furious with the tactical commander who shot down the drone because they clearly did not want that provocation to take place,” he said.  “Based on those facts, new information to the president, he called off the strike. And I don’t think there will be a re-attack based on now the conclusion by the intelligence community that this was not the national leadership’s intention to conduct this provocation.” -Source


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## BloodStripe (Jun 21, 2019)

Were they really or is this just a way for deconfliction? 150 lives seems really high for a few radar and SAM sites.


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## Devildoc (Jun 21, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> Were they really or is this just a way for deconfliction? 150 lives seems really high for a few radar and SAM sites.



If I had to take a scientific wild-ass guess, I would think that they are legit concerned that someone had an itchy trigger finger.  You don't see a carrier strike group and all of that US military hardware and watch American news and not be a little nervous.


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## Blizzard (Jun 21, 2019)

Eh, fuck it.  Proportional is for pussies.  Launch one massive strike to just wipe out their Navy, which is mostly PT boats, then call it a day.  Solves a lot of problems and gets rid of the mosquitoes. I hate mosquitoes. 😊


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## Brill (Jun 21, 2019)

So this homicidal dictator stood down the retaliation BECAUSE of CDE? I don’t understand.

Maybe he actually thinks and cares about people?


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## Gunz (Jun 21, 2019)

Blizzard said:


> Eh, fuck it.  Proportional is for pussies.  Launch one massive strike to just wipe out their Navy, which is mostly PT boats, then call it a day.  Solves a lot of problems and gets rid of the mosquitoes. I hate mosquitoes. 😊





Ocoka said:


> They fire a _Strela_ at one of our drones...and miss...then it's only fair that we respond with an excessive strike package. I suggest taking out all their nuclear installations and capabilities...and get back in time for Happy Hour.




Great minds think alike. Navy and nukes on the ATO.


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## DocCallahan (Jun 21, 2019)

Oh boy I bet deployment is going to be frustrating with all this news. I can only imagine family trying to contact with concerns over all the sporadic news. 

Seems like a very split administration from my perspective. Big wigs in the pent want to slam Iran and Trump is worried about having a war smear his re election. Either way it goes, we’re chilling.


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## AWP (Jun 21, 2019)

I'm glad to be 100% wrong for once.


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## Marauder06 (Jun 21, 2019)




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## Ooh-Rah (Jun 22, 2019)




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## Kaldak (Jun 22, 2019)

@lindy here is the best translations my wife had. She is a former Farsi linguist with 3/3.

نابودتون میکنم

or


نکنبا من کل کل

She said the computer and email messed with formatting on her. And I may have messed up the second one more with copy+paste.


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## CQB (Jun 23, 2019)

757 said:


> “The Iranian national leadership was furious with the tactical commander who shot down the drone because they clearly did not want that provocation to take place,” he said.  “Based on those facts, new information to the president, he called off the strike. And I don’t think there will be a re-attack based on now the conclusion by the intelligence community that this was not the national leadership’s intention to conduct this provocation.” -Source


...and we’re done for now.


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## GOTWA (Jun 23, 2019)

The ground war wasn't triggered, but that didn't stop the Cyber war from starting.


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## Devildoc (Jun 24, 2019)

CQB said:


> ...and we’re done for now.



In an apparent move of doublespeak or being hypocritical, Iran said that they would shoot down more drones.  I was like, "wow, that's an about face after being angry that it was a long trigger-puller."  Then shortly after I read that, news came out about a cyber attack.

To put some meat with @GOTWA post:
US military launched cyberattacks against Iran after drone shot down: officials


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## AWP (Jun 24, 2019)

I'm innocent, that's all y'all need to know.


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## Devildoc (Jun 24, 2019)

AWP said:


> I'm innocent, that's all y'all need to know.


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## CQB (Jun 24, 2019)

Devildoc said:


> In an apparent move of doublespeak or being hypocritical, Iran said that they would shoot down more drones.  I was like, "wow, that's an about face after being angry that it was a long trigger-puller."  Then shortly after I read that, news came out about a cyber attack.
> 
> To put some meat with @GOTWA post:
> US military launched cyberattacks against Iran after drone shot down: officials


Looks suspiciously like I spoke too soon. Economic sanctions to follow.


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## Phoenix15 (Jun 26, 2019)

Philly Refinery Explosion

Timing seems suspicious. Seems like a fishy weekend in the energy world. Any relation to cyber stuff going on?


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## Phoenix15 (Jun 26, 2019)

Phoenix15 said:


> Philly Refinery Explosion
> 
> Timing seems suspicious. Seems like a fishy weekend in the energy world. Any relation to cyber stuff going on?




Do give more context to those who won’t read the article: company crippling explosion happened at 0400 EST on Friday the 21st.


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## BloodStripe (Jun 26, 2019)

Edit.


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## Gunz (Jun 27, 2019)

Phoenix15 said:


> Philly Refinery Explosion
> 
> Timing seems suspicious. Seems like a fishy weekend in the energy world. Any relation to cyber stuff going on?



A bit too far of a reach, I think.


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## coolusername (Jul 1, 2019)

So what do y'all think about Iran going over the Uranium limit


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## Box (Jul 2, 2019)

That Iran sucks?

That they were planning on doing that all along - they just couldnt afford to because they had 150 billion dollars in assets frozen to keep them from doing it?

That the reason they can finally afford to go over the Uranium limit is because they found 150 billion dollars laying around that they had already earmarked for their nuke program??

....that they are just poor innocent victims of OrangeManBad ??


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## RackMaster (Jul 2, 2019)

coolusername said:


> So what do y'all think about Iran going over the Uranium limit


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## Gunz (Jul 4, 2019)

coolusername said:


> So what do y'all think about Iran going over the Uranium limit




I think the IAF should bomb the shit out of them in preemptive self-defense...and get back in time for beer call.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Sep 14, 2019)

If they were smart, this would have happened on Monday when the markets open. Attack on oil refinery will likely be forgotten unless something else drastic happens this weekend or they really affected output.


Pompeo: Iran Behind Oil Attack in Saudi


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## Gunz (Sep 16, 2019)

BlackSmokeRisinG said:


> If they were smart, this would have happened on Monday when the markets open. Attack on oil refinery will likely be forgotten unless something else drastic happens this weekend or they really affected output.
> 
> 
> Pompeo: Iran Behind Oil Attack in Saudi




My guess would be Iran based solely on the weaponry. And incidentally, when you fuck with Saudi oil production you're fucking with a percentage of global oil, hence it's terrorism, hence rates retaliatory punishment.


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## BlackSmokeRisinG (Sep 17, 2019)

So output is coming back sooner than expected. SA is back to 70% of pre attack output. 

Saudi production back up


And to hell with the speculators that predicted hard core supply line disruptions as a way to artificially jack up the damn price!


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## ThunderHorse (Sep 17, 2019)

BlackSmokeRisinG said:


> So output is coming back sooner than expected. SA is back to 70% of pre attack output.
> 
> Saudi production back up
> 
> ...


This annoys me...I needed one of my holdings to go up so I could exit.


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## Brill (Sep 19, 2019)




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## AWP (Sep 19, 2019)

You don't think about Iran has being so active until you see the graphic above. Sure am glad we invaded Iraq in 2003....


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## GOTWA (Sep 19, 2019)

Puts Trump in a real pickle given it's election season.  Last thing he wants is to put us in another conflict right before people head to the polls.  Last thing he needs is to sit idly by as Iran does what they want.


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## R.Caerbannog (Sep 20, 2019)




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## Devildoc (Sep 20, 2019)

We don't need to do anything besides turn up the heat with more sanctions. Their economy is in the toilet right now because of it, their pensions are running dry, a lot of their military is parked because they don't have enough money for fuel.  If Trump wants to come out of this smelling like a rose, he would call from more and harsher sanctions.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Sep 20, 2019)

Mehhh, we should straight fuck Iran off back to the stone age. There is no country more deserving of some rape, kill, pillage and burn, then those sorry motherfuckers. Kill off the males, burn out the villages, breed out the woman, raise our flag and our middle finger to the world.

That's what Iran deserves. Hell I'd come back as E nothing for that...


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## R.Caerbannog (Sep 20, 2019)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Mehhh, we should straight fuck Iran off back to the stone age. There is no country more deserving of some rape, kill, pillage and burn, then those sorry motherfuckers. Kill off the males, burn out the villages, breed out the woman, raise our flag and our middle finger to the world.
> 
> That's what Iran deserves. Hell I'd come back as E nothing for that...


As much as I agree with you, I think we're better off letting them cannibalize themselves. Like @Devildoc said, Iran's economy is in the toilet. The Iranian people are probably restless too and starvation in conjunction with economic collapse are the best ingredients for bloody revolution.

It also looks like the PRC is trying to breath some life into Iran, via trade and money, but they won't be able to with their own economy in the shitter. All we need to do is sit back and watch Iran tear itself apart.


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## Gunz (Sep 20, 2019)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Mehhh, we should straight fuck Iran off back to the stone age. There is no country more deserving of some rape, kill, pillage and burn, then those sorry motherfuckers. Kill off the males, burn out the villages, breed out the woman, raise our flag and our middle finger to the world.
> 
> That's what Iran deserves. Hell I'd come back as E nothing for that...



We should've done it when Carter was president. An ultimatum: release the hostages in 48 hours or we make one giant, smoking crater out of your country. Period.

As it is now, we've got to continue overtly and covertly to disrupt and weaken, support opposition, foment rebellion. And maybe encourage the IDF to find a pretext to smoke suspected nuke targets...and be back in time for beer call.


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## JacktheShortKid2001 (Sep 20, 2019)

Anybody have thoughts on US moving troops to Saudi Arabia? It was released roughly an hour ago, they say that it's for air defence bolstering.


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## Kraut783 (Sep 20, 2019)

Looks like we are sending air defense troops to Saudi....


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## AWP (Sep 20, 2019)

Sending ADA to Saudi...yawn. We have Patriots all over the AOR andthey come in different blocks with different capabilities, the Saudis have Patriots, plus other factors. Much ado about nothing unless you're a Patriot soldier deploying at near record rates for those units.


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## Jaknight (Sep 21, 2019)

Question why would Iran do such a ballsy ass move as this? Isn’t this inviting retaliation for them?


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## R.Caerbannog (Sep 21, 2019)

Jaknight said:


> Question why would Iran do such a ballsy ass move as this? Isn’t this inviting retaliation for them?


Think of Iran as an evil bitch of an ex-wife (or husband may as well be progressive). Now think of ex-wife as having lost custody of the kids, is broke, and is about to lose all the child support bennies that have been funding her coke/weed habit.

Having lost leverage the ex-wife is now trying to get you to smack her ass down; so she can put you behind bars and take your kids away. Hence the crazy ex-wife (Iran) keying your car, stealing your lawnmower, and busting up your side-hoe's car windshield.

Question is, do we smack that hoe's ass into the ground so hard that Jesus says 'Oh Lawd Dat Ass', or do we play it smart and laugh at the crazy bitch when she's reduced to selling blowies and rub & tugs at the local truck stop?

Add on: I may need to lay off the soap opera's for a bit...


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## Brill (Sep 21, 2019)

Jaknight said:


> Question why would Iran do such a ballsy ass move as this? Isn’t this inviting retaliation for them?



They want concessions from the EU who will be hit hardest by high oil prices. The US now exports more than we import so, comparatively, we will be less so.


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## AWP (Sep 21, 2019)

Every contractor NOT in the Arabian Gulf wants a war.

Every contractor IN the Arabian Gulf area wants Iran to STFU and leave us alone.

"35% uplift! Woo hoo!"
(Checks number of TBMs)
"We oughta bomb North Korea."


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