# The Turkey-Russia Incident



## Ooh-Rah (Nov 24, 2015)

So is this as much of an "oh fuck, this ain't a good thing" moment as I think it is?

Russian Plane Shot down by Turkey, Aircrew Potentially Captured | SOFREP


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 24, 2015)

Update -

Turkey shoots down RUSSIAN jet on Syrian border, video show dead pilot


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## Red-Dot (Nov 24, 2015)

E


Ooh-Rah said:


> Update -
> 
> Turkey shoots down RUSSIAN jet on Syrian border, video show dead pilot


Echos of Blackhawk down. Any pilot going down in that no mans land will not have a favorable outcome.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

The Russians have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace and were repeatedly warned not to do it again. Putin is a habitual linestepper and the Russians have repeatedly pushed the envelope here. This should come as no surprise to anyone. If anything, I'm surprised it took this long.


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## Devildoc (Nov 24, 2015)

....and seems that old-style posturing with bombers is passe' now as Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft.  The article I read said that the Turks warned them "10 times in 5 minutes" that they were in Turkish airspace. 

So far Putin seems to be exercising appropriate restraint.


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## 104TN (Nov 24, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> The Russians have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace and were repeatedly warned not to do it again. Putin is a habitual linestepper and the Russians have repeatedly pushed the envelope here. This should come as no surprise to anyone. If anything, I'm surprised it took this long.



At some point NATO is going to become a factor in one of these "incidents".


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2015)

LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!

It's starting to look a lot like WW3, every time I read the news...

I've often wondered if the Russian pilots were intentionally fucking with the Turkish border, or if they are just actually that bad at navigation.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

The Russians also lost a helo or had one seriously damaged today.

If Putin doesn't do something he'll look weak.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

Turkey smokes a Russian plane. "Pari-what? Pari-who?" Done, this never happened.


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## Phoenix15 (Nov 24, 2015)

Russian media claiming the plane was shot down less than a mile over the Turkish border. For those who know the standard progression of in flight comms-to-shoot down: how likely is it that the su-24 was only 1 mile over the border? those things haul ass, yes?

And thought I'd ask if we're still flying F-22's over syria since russian air systems have moved in. Not that we wouldn't fly in fear of being shot down, but I'd assume we wouldn't want them to get a chance at figuring out that baby's RCS.

Mod edit.


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## Gunz (Nov 24, 2015)

Putin's pissed. He'll rant and rave but would he risk retaliation against a NATO member, especially since it looks like the pilot was warned 10 times? With everything he has on the front burner in Syria right now, why would he want to start shit with NATO?  

It seems to me that of all the participants in the largely ineffective air war against ISIL, Russia's on the verge of being the first to go in with ground troops. They're backing a government-in-place (admittedly an embattled one) but one that has the best chance of filling the infrastructure void once ISIL is defeated.


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## Blizzard (Nov 24, 2015)

Devildoc said:


> ....and seems that old-style posturing with bombers is passe' now as Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft.  The article I read said that the Turks warned them "10 times in 5 minutes" that they were in Turkish airspace.


Play with fire and you're bound to get burned.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 24, 2015)

I fucking hate this  uncoordinated cluster fuck situation. All of these planes and helicopters flying through the air space over there, something like this was bound to happen, it's going to get really ugly when it is us who takes out a Russian jet or vice a versa. 

I feel like the brain wizards of ISIS are in a cave somewhere giggling their asses off, because  they are getting exactly what they want.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2015)

I agree, and think it would be very easy to get coordinated.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

Phoenix15 said:


> And thought I'd ask if we're still flying f-22's over syria since russian air systems have moved in. Not that we wouldn't fly in fear of being shot down, but I'd assume we wouldn't want them to get a chance at figuring out that baby's RCS.



Think about what you just asked and why that should be public knowledge? We're flying -22's in the theater and if the Air Force is discussing more than that, so be it. Yes, the Russians have ADA on top of the Syrian systems.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

Ooh-Rah said:


> I fucking hate this  uncoordinated cluster fuck situation. All of these planes and helicopters flying through the air space over there, something like this was bound to happen, it's going to get really ugly when it is us who takes out a Russian jet or vice a versa.





Diamondback 2/2 said:


> I agree, and think it would be very easy to get coordinated.



I don't think you guys know how that portion of an air war is handled. I'm not trying to be a dick or rude (for once), but we have an entire facility with dozens and dozens of people whose job it is to manage the airspace. Limitations on "uncontrolled" airspaces are 100% Iraqi, Syrian, Russian, and Turkish in origin. We have flat out been told by Iraq, this is over Iraq mind you, that we are to "request" (ask permission) Iraqi aircraft to vacate a ROZ (think a series of killboxes) in which we were striking. No shit, we had a trainer fly into an active airspace and we couldn't do anything about it. That was on the heels of several incidents involving Iraqi F-16's.

Coalition aircraft listen to us, but other nations do whatever they feel like and have repeatedly stated as much to us. I could go on and on, but the air war is "a sham." We're doing some things beautifully (like the above) which are undercut by US, coalition, allied, or "other" parties like Russia (also like the above). This is a military and diplomatic shit show of epic proportions.

The airspace though is locked down to the extent we control.


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## Queeg (Nov 24, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> ..Putin is a habitual linestepper and the Russians have repeatedly pushed the envelope here. This should come as no surprise to anyone. If anything, I'm surprised it took this long.


 
My ghetto side was going, "Yo, stomp this motherfucker out right here."


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## Ranger Psych (Nov 24, 2015)

Coordination = Cooperation
Do you really think with the commanding personality, rock hard determination and steadfast resolve of the soaking wet paperbag turned half cooked pancake we have as president, anyone that has the OPTION of listening to us, would? 

I can think of a few presidents prior to this one that would have been man enough to flat out call up Putin and go "YO, you want to hit them and keep your birds straight? Let's work together on something other than the ISS for once" and figure the shit out. Hell, maybe actually make a new friend since sometimes, you find out how good a friend really is when you're back to back in a barfight.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2015)

Ranger Psych said:


> Coordination = Cooperation
> Do you really think with the commanding personality, rock hard determination and steadfast resolve of the soaking wet paperbag turned half cooked pancake we have as president, anyone that has the OPTION of listening to us, would?
> 
> I can think of a few presidents prior to this one that would have been man enough to flat out call up Putin and go "YO, you want to hit them and keep your birds straight? Let's work together on something other than the ISS for once" and figure the shit out. Hell, maybe actually make a new friend since sometimes, you find out how good a friend really is when you're back to back in a barfight.



The second paragraph is what I was thinking. Just sit down hammer out the bullshit and work together on it. Obama may not be able to do it, but he is on his way out the door.

@Freefalling, no I do not know how air traffic control or air space coordination works. I'm not in the loop on what's taking place over there in the air. Just seems to me that, you have a bunch of different governments dropping bombs and not much understanding and or coordination between all involved.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 24, 2015)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> @Freefalling, no I do not know how air traffic control or air space coordination works. I'm not in the loop on what's taking place over there in the air. Just seems to me that, you have a bunch of different governments dropping bombs and not much understanding and or coordination between all involved



Yep - this is what I was trying to say. Sounds like everything would be fine if all the players followed the rules - but if they don't, things can get a little FUBAR.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

I understand what you're saying and I'm onboard. The problem is you have a bunch of parties and almost every nation here is doing what is in their interests. The French are helping Assad  so their "massive" retaliatory strikes are a show, but plays well on TV. I hope we're not underwriting some of  their commitment (we did this for other NATO nations in Afghanistan) but the French have major equipment limitations which marginalizes their integration with the coalition. The Russians' are well known. The Turks...fuck the Turks. That whole slice is a dumpster fire and I'd love to sing about that abortion. The Iraqis aren't a dumpster, they are a burning landfill. No one's in charge and no one will be in charge so there's no incentive or requirement to play nice; it is a free-for-all.

Then there's us. On top of the ROE and a bunch of other issues adding Turkey to the fight is problematic. Think about it: This is a CENTCOM war but Turkey belongs to EUCOM. Do you think EUCOM has abrogated their authority and given those pieces to CENTCOM to manage? Who is paying for it?

I can't speak to the diplomatic attempts and failures, I only see the end result and even that is akin to looking at the campaign through the proverbial paper towel tube. I was involved before the Turks and Russians showed up to the party and have seen the resulting changes through my tube. They aren't pretty.

The guys and gals responsible for the "go here and do this" portion are killing it, but I question the other pieces.


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## DA SWO (Nov 24, 2015)

Devildoc said:


> ....and seems that old-style posturing with bombers is passe' now as Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft.  The article I read said that the Turks warned them "10 times in 5 minutes" that they were in Turkish airspace.
> 
> So far Putin seems to be exercising appropriate restraint.


The Russians have been violating Turkish Airspace since they arrived, essentially giving Turkey the middle finger.
The Turks got lucky and had planes available, in the right spot to do something this time.

I want shoot down details though, Sidewinder missiles would be my first bet.


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## DA SWO (Nov 24, 2015)

Phoenix15 said:


> Russian media claiming the plane was shot down less than a mile over the Turkish border. For those who know the standard progression of in flight comms-to-shoot down: how likely is it that the su-24 was only 1 mile over the border? those things haul ass, yes?
> 
> And thought I'd ask if we're still flying f-22's over syria since russian air systems have moved in. Not that we wouldn't fly in fear of being shot down, but I'd assume we wouldn't want them to get a chance at figuring out that baby's RCS.


How far in Syrian Airspace was the Turkish RF-4 that was shot down?


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## Brill (Nov 24, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> The Russians have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace and were repeatedly warned not to do it again. Putin is a habitual linestepper and the Russians have repeatedly pushed the envelope here. This should come as no surprise to anyone. If anything, I'm surprised it took this long.



Did you just call Obama a vuh-jay-jay?


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## Blizzard (Nov 24, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> The Russians have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace and were repeatedly warned not to do it again. Putin is a habitual linestepper and the Russians have repeatedly pushed the envelope here. This should come as no surprise to anyone. If anything, I'm surprised it took this long.


I don't have huge love for the Turks but as you stated, Russia decided to play this serious game.  Their cavalier approach to intercepts and air space intrusion was destined to result in a mid-air or something like this.   It was stupid/childish and they just got bit.  I'd like to think this will lead the Russians to a more responsible approach but we'll see...they tend to let their pride cloud their judgement quite a bit.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 24, 2015)

Makes me wonder...would we do it?  I mean we send some intercepts up when Bear gets too close to Alaska, but if that bird kept going, would we shoot it down?  I have a very difficult time believing that we would; quite honestly I'm surprised Russia has not probed further in, just to see if they could.


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## AWP (Nov 24, 2015)

lindy said:


> Did you just call Obama a vuh-jay-jay?



If the lack of a foreign policy or strategic plan and our inability to address Russian actions over the last few years makes one a certain body part...

How dare you insinuate my opinions of our Commander in Chief are anything less than laudatory! My good man that is scandalous!


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## Red-Dot (Nov 24, 2015)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!
> 
> It's starting to look a lot like WW3, every time I read the news...
> 
> I've often wondered if the Russian pilots were intentionally fucking with the Turkish border, or if they are just actually that bad at navigation.


Next we will see T-90's coming through the Fulda Gap! Better not retire that A-10 quite yet!


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## Blizzard (Nov 24, 2015)

DA SWO said:


> I want shoot down details though, Sidewinder missiles would be my first bet.


Fox Two, bitches!


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## Centermass (Nov 24, 2015)




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## DA SWO (Nov 24, 2015)

Centermass said:


>


Funny, but the person who wrote that doesn't know Turks.
Has the story changed to say they were in Syrian Airspace?
Otherwise this falls into the Russian Propaganda for $200.00 Alex category.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 25, 2015)

So looks like Russian SAR rescued the pilot and got him back to the Homeland...

Downed Russian pilot picked up by Syrian army - envoy


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## Blizzard (Nov 25, 2015)

I'd be curious to see the President and  State Department's comments on the fate of the other Russian pilot since it was reported, and video was made available, of Turkmen firing on them while under canopy - actually considered a war crime for those bound to Geneva Conventions.  I'm not defending Russia's actions but I'm not going to justify the subsequent actions of these "rebels" either.  Not cool.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 25, 2015)




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## Rapid (Nov 25, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> Turkey smokes a Russian plane. "Pari-what? Pari-who?" Done, this never happened.



And yet I don't understand why there isn't an actual thread on here about such a huge development.

I saw an analogy about this. Your neighbor's house is burning. You stand in your back yard with a gun. The fire brigade arrives and takes one single step on the very corner of your property while taking the hose to the burning house. You shoot the firemen. _WOOHOOO I'M THE GREAT DEFENDER OF NATO BORDERS, ALLAHU AKBAR!_

Yeah, yeah, not fully comparable, but come on you fucking Turks... They were there for 17 seconds max by Turkey's own admission (it may have been even shorter). They were already on their way out and posed no threat.

Edit: ok, ok, it's in the Iraq and ISIS thread.


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## Rapid (Nov 25, 2015)

DA SWO said:


> Bold face part:  You must have seen a different video than I, as the video I saw showed a helicopter on the ground, rotors stopped getting destroyed.



The video you watched must have cut off the first part, where they're setting up.



Embedded media from this media site is no longer available









Devildoc said:


> Read it, did not see it.  So not surprised that different media reporting different things.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 25, 2015)

I don't like alarmist journalism, but this is a pretty tense situation.  Many of the major countries that are at play here are experiencing some severe internal crises, and creating an external threat is a great way to get the population focused on something else other than how shitty their lives are due to the people in power in their own countries.  When that happens, sometimes the mob gets hard to control and unintended consequences result.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 25, 2015)

@Marauder06 - that is very well written.


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## AWP (Nov 25, 2015)

Anyone watch the last season of House of Cards?

We don't know if the pilots were set up, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 25, 2015)

Ooh-Rah said:


> @Marauder06 - that is very well written.


I agree. This is a pretty bad situation.  Anyone who knows history or understands international relations, or basic human nature for that matter, knows how easy it is for things to escalate out of control.


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## DA SWO (Nov 25, 2015)

Rapid said:


> And yet I don't understand why there isn't an actual thread on here about such a huge development.
> 
> I saw an analogy about this. Your neighbor's house is burning. You stand in your back yard with a gun. The fire brigade arrives and takes one single step on the very corner of your property while taking the hose to the burning house. You shoot the firemen. _WOOHOOO I'M THE GREAT DEFENDER OF NATO BORDERS, ALLAHU AKBAR!_
> 
> ...


How long was the Turkish RF-4 in Syrian Airspace?

I have minimal interactions with Turks, those interactions convinced me they were ultra-nationalists, this is a saving face action.


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## DA SWO (Nov 25, 2015)

Marauder06 said:


> I agree. This is a pretty bad situation.  Anyone who knows history or understands international relations, or basic human nature for that matter, knows how easy it is for things to escalate out of control.


Agreed, backing into a war is the wrong way to go to war.
Gee 100 years ago a multitude of treaties led to a great war.
Glad we can not make that mistake again.


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## Frank S. (Nov 25, 2015)

Freefalling said:


> Turkey smokes a Russian plane. "Pari-what? Pari-who?" Done, this never happened.



That'd be my cue to change my profile pic back on FB...


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## Gunz (Nov 26, 2015)

Marauder06 said:


> I don't like alarmist journalism, but this is a pretty tense situation.  Many of the major countries that are at play here are experiencing some severe internal crises, and creating an external threat is a great way to get the population focused on something else other than how shitty their lives are due to the people in power in their own countries.  When that happens, sometimes the mob gets hard to control and unintended consequences result.


 

"Big things have small beginnings," to borrow a quote from _Lawrence of Arabia..._Even very bad things. With so many diverse killing elements, so many different agendas all in such close proximity and all kinds of metal flying through the air, things are poised to go to hell in a hurry. Good article.


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## Brill (Nov 27, 2015)

Rapid said:


> And yet I don't understand why there isn't an actual thread on here about such a huge development.
> 
> I saw an analogy about this. Your neighbor's house is burning. You stand in your back yard with a gun. The fire brigade arrives and takes one single step on the very corner of your property while taking the hose to the burning house. You shoot the firemen. _WOOHOOO I'M THE GREAT DEFENDER OF NATO BORDERS, ALLAHU AKBAR!_
> 
> ...



Press has been reporting that Russians were bombing Turkmen forces.  That tells me this really has nothing to do with airspace.

Russian raids repeatedly hit Syrian Turkmen areas, Moscow's data shows


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## DA SWO (Nov 27, 2015)

lindy said:


> Press has been reporting that Russians were bombing Turkmen forces.  That tells me this really has nothing to do with airspace.
> 
> Russian raids repeatedly hit Syrian Turkmen areas, Moscow's data shows


Maybe, but by zipping through Turkey the Russians gave the turks an opportunity to take a plane down.
Putin had to expect some pushback, 25% (maybe) of the strikes are against DAESH.


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## JBS (Nov 27, 2015)

Might be the case, but then why would Turkey say it's a reaction to airspace violation, instead of admitting that they were sustaining casualties among forces they support?

In either case, there isn't a satisfactory response.  If they are lying, it's because they want to conceal the nature of their involvement; if telling the truth, morons are behind the controls.


What a mess.

We are on the verge of WWIII.


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## AWP (Nov 27, 2015)

The Russians have repeatedly violated Turkey's airspace and even intercepted our a/c. They have barley, if at all, deconflicted their cruise missile strikes. Turkey made repeated calls on Guard in both English and Russian multiple times in a 3 hour window because of airspace or potential airspace violations. Those Turkish F-16 were able to respond so quickly because none of this was a surprise to the Turks thanks to the Russians' own behavior.

I have no love for Turkey and while I question IF they should have fired, the Russians are flat-out lying and if anything they've had it coming. They brought this on themselves.


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## AWP (Nov 27, 2015)

I've tried to merge all of the post related to the shootdown into this thread. It bridges the gaps between other threads, but we started to have discussions in two different places. This is just a housekeeping move. I didn't delete any posts so if they are gone from the original thread, check here.


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## Frank S. (Nov 27, 2015)

JBS said:


> What a mess.
> 
> We are on the verge of WWIII.



Nothing is fucked. nothing is fucked, Dude...


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## Rapid (Nov 30, 2015)

Russia says Turkey 'shot down plane for IS oil' - BBC News

*Russia says Turkey 'shot down plane for IS oil'*

Oh shit, Russia's calling out Turkey on their bullshit. We all knew it for a long time, but world leaders weren't saying shit.

Whether or not that's why the plane was shot down, I'm glad the fucking Turks don't get away with this unscathed. I positively hate Russia in nearly everything else they do, but yeah...


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## Gunz (Nov 30, 2015)

The Turks are probably making a fortune from the flow of black market ISIL crude oil smuggled in by truck. So many money-making possibilites from any angle, bribes, payoffs, tolls, taxes, a percentage of profits, all under the table. 

This is an interesting paper on the IS crude oil smuggling routes.

http://www.marsecreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PAPER-on-CRUDE-OIL-and-ISIS.pdf


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