# US intelligence Budget



## mike_cos (Mar 14, 2011)

Today it was made ​​public the amount of the National Intelligence Program (NIP) U.S. Intelligence Community. The NIP is one of two macro-aggregates that form the overall balance of​American intelligence services (the other is the Military Intelligence Program). This year the NIP is growing amounts to 53 billion dollars. The last year was 48 billion the year before and 47.5 more years​previous was 43 billion. Last year the total budget (NIP + MIP) was 75 billion dollars. Will be made public as soon as the Military Intelligence Program we know the total for 2010.​​ 
​http://www.odni.gov/press_releases/20101028_2010_NIP_release.pdf​


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## DA SWO (Mar 14, 2011)

Why do you consider this important?
i.e. please comment when you post a story or link.


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## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2011)

We're studying this is school right now, some mind-boggling figures when it comes to intel funding.


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## mike_cos (Mar 15, 2011)

SOWT said:


> Why do you consider this important?





SOWT said:


> i.e. please comment when you post a story or link.


you're right.. i'm sorry... I think these figures are confirmation that an Obama administration, not a break with the previous one, but simply its continuity and investment in new military technology and weapons continued to prevent terrorist attacks (I think the average voter obama did notexpect this ). I believe that a country like America should invest in these figures intelligence, but it is difficult to justify to ordinary people when there is an economic crisis of this magnitude. Some of my friends think that despite all those billions of dollars the United States failed to anticipate the riots in North Africa .... but I do not think so ...Indeed, you were the first to know ...:cool:... or not? what do you think about?


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 15, 2011)

I think it’s fucking terrible, and that we should be getting better product for what we are paying. No doubt a good majority of this budget is chewed up by technology, but holy shit, really $75 “Billon” on Intel?


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## Marauder06 (Mar 15, 2011)

I think that's proportional when you look at say the overall budget for the military ($685+ billion) and consider that the intel budget covers the entire IC, not just military intel.


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## mike_cos (Mar 15, 2011)

Marauder06 said:


> I think that's proportional when you look at say the overall budget for the military ($685+ billion) and consider that the intel budget covers the entire IC, not just military intel.


Based on the data that we know we can try to arrange a table with the budgets of the last three years (in billions of U.S. dollars).

YEAR.................NIP....MIP ...TOTAL
2010 ...................53.....27..........80
2009 ..................48 ....26,4.......74,4
2008...................47,5..22,9.......70,4

WTF i can't arrange a table here....LL


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 15, 2011)

Marauder06 said:


> I think that's proportional when you look at say the overall budget for the military ($685+ billion) and consider that the intel budget covers the entire IC, not just military intel.



Are you serious? Did you know that current DoD formula is $1 million per a US soldier, per a year deployed (and that has been consistent as per the white house)? WTF? How can that be proportional in anyway? I remember reading that it cost the Army $250k to deploy a soldier to OIF/OEF with all equipment needed. That’s not including sustaining the soldier, or paying that soldier.

Mara, I know you’re an Intel officer, but come on…. Do you really think any of this is realistic? Do you really feel we could not cut that cost down dramatically? Do you really think the Intel community is producing $75 billion is quality information? No disrespect meant towards you, but I think these number are crazy...


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## Scotth (Mar 15, 2011)

Actually I thought the numbers would be bigger.  I think we get a good ROI when it comes to intelligence.  It will never be 100% like people demand.  There are two recent cases that come to mind the first one was about the bomb making house in San Diego and the other would be the wanna be terrorist they grab in Oregon.  Think about everything that needs to be monitored 24/7/365.  Your monitoing the whole world.  We're monitoring whats going on in Japan as well as Libya, Eygpt and every other middle east country.  Monitoring drugs in Mexico and Chavez in South America.  Monitoring what NK is up to along with China and the Russian.

It never stops.  Different events might get more priority but you can never walk away from monitoring the whole world.  It's a big complex job with all kinds of threats and I think our country gets a pretty good ROI.


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## DA SWO (Mar 15, 2011)

Technically our Intel is the best; our analysis needs improvement.
We can detect, id, etc; but if the White House wants it spun different, it get spun different.
I really think intel should not be an entry level MOS.
Bring Capt's/NCO's in from Combat Arms and give them the technical training, they have the operational training/experience to know what is importent.
J.A.B.-How would you improve the system?


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## Brill (Mar 15, 2011)

JAB said:


> Do you really think the Intel community is producing $75 billion is quality information?



I noticed that you wrote your post in English and not Russian, Chinese, or Arabic.  I also assumed that after your posting, the secret police or "morality police" did not break down your door to take you away to their secret prison.

Yep...I think we're doing ok but there is ALWAYS room for improvement.  Just imagine what could be accomplished if the budget were increased?

What was the bill for TARP? :-"


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## mike_cos (Mar 15, 2011)

Scotth said:


> It's a big complex job with all kinds of threats and I think our country gets a pretty good ROI.


Interesting... how do you calculate ROI?


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 15, 2011)

SOWT said:


> J.A.B.-How would you improve the system?



I would not even know where to start. I have only been exposed to the tactical end product and it was normally plain wrong or too old to do anything with.



lindy said:


> I noticed that you wrote your post in English and not Russian, Chinese, or Arabic. I also assumed that after your posting, the secret police or "morality police" did not break down your door to take you away to their secret prison.
> 
> Yep...I think we're doing ok but there is ALWAYS room for improvement. Just imagine what could be accomplished if the budget were increased?
> 
> What was the bill for TARP? :-"



Really? You noticed all that eh? lol;)

I won’t even get into the TARP stuff, but if you are comparing the Intel community to the private banking organizations in the United States, we might be able to look at it…lol

For $75 Billion I would expect to know when and where OBL takes his morning shit…


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## SpitfireV (Mar 15, 2011)

You guys do a pretty good job catching agents, too, it seems. That's a pretty important part of the intel equation. Whether that's mostly down to the FBI being pretty good at it, sloppy tradecraft or your own agents or highly likely a combination of all three, who knows.

Either way, it's good work.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 15, 2011)

I would agree that we have a very good intelligence community across the board, but my question is, is it cost efficient? Does the end product of information outweigh cost of $75 “billion”. That is a pretty big number if you ask me and for all the excellent work that is done, there are just as many down falls. That is part of any organization, so I am not pointing a finger say ‘’you guys suck” but I am wondering why it cost so much. I don’t think the Intel community is doing anything wrong or different than any other government organization, big Army will spend money on having dirt piles moved to make sure they get next year’s budget. That doesn’t mean they should be, or that it’s sustainable for a nation that is supposedly going broke. 

SOWT ask’ed what would I do to improve the system, and I truly have no damn idea. But I am more than confident that if I had the data in front of me along with the stats on effectiveness, I could find some ways to cut the budget down. I have seen the amount of waste all over the Army and I can promise I could tear the Army’s budget down by 25-30% (probably a lot more) without losing combat effectiveness. 

Could you imagine if you owned a business and ran your budgeting like the US Government? lol I guess it would be going broke like the US gov… :confused:


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## Manolito (Mar 15, 2011)

How to calculate ROI. I wish I could just quantify Return. It was like listening to one of our members talking about the Secret Service. I took for face value they were good. Then I listen to somebody who I trust and has worked with them and hear a different story completely. I hear on the board people don't need to know what is happening. Our operations should not be publicised or known. So I am left with trusting the same people that alllowed TARP, Billions to left wing spending, ETC.
I can only trust that the intel community is staffed by good hard working Americans that give me or us the US a good ROI.
What if we know exactly where Binladen is? Would we be better off watching who comes and goes than we would hanging one person? I don't know the answer but if I am hunting coyotes I keep bait in the trap.
If I look at Fort Hauchuca somebody had to pay for those antennas. :-"
If I grade them on allowing a Private to copy and steal thousands of documents my return sucks.


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## SpitfireV (Mar 15, 2011)

JAB, from a casual look from the outside it would seem to me that a lot of efforts are duplicated across several different agencies or departments. I could imagine that would up the costs considerably.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 15, 2011)

I am sure that has some to do with it, I would guess that there are more areas to look at than we could list on the forum. At the end of the day I don’t have enough knowledge to make the list, so I am pissing in the wind. There are a few on here that could make that list though, not that they should (probably be a bad idea).


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## SpitfireV (Mar 15, 2011)

Well all Intel do is pull guesses out of a hat, why can't we?


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## AWP (Mar 15, 2011)

JAB said:


> I could tear the Army’s budget down by 25-30% (probably a lot more) without losing combat effectiveness.



We aren't terribly effective right now, but even a 30% reduction would cripple us.

The problem when you start cutting is that the cuts impact the rank and file of the organization, not management. Our flaws in intel are largely driven by management. Until leadership is accountable for their actions, we can't expect the product to improve.


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## SpitfireV (Mar 15, 2011)

I think everyone's flaws in intel are mostly driven by management. My friend got told to add something in a report the other day, even though the analysis didn't support what the manager wanted him to put in. It seems be a worldwide problem.


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## Scotth (Mar 15, 2011)

mike_cos said:


> Interesting... how do you calculate ROI?



Quantifying ROI on intelligence spending is, at least from the outsider looking in, more opinion than anything. Not being priveledged to the information makes it difficult. In the computer field that I work in it easy to layout the returns in terms of cost versus things like network security, added efficiencies, bells and whistles on upgrade software etc.

I think the biggest problem for intelligences is effectively analyzing the data we are able to collect.  I think only a fraction of the data we are able to collect gets analyized in a timely manner.  But unanalyized intell may still be useful in the future so the collection is still important.

At the end of the day the simplest measure for the outsider looking in, we haven't had a major attack in the US since 9/11. People are working hard each an everyday to ensure that so I think that is a pretty good investment.


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## Teufel (Mar 15, 2011)

JAB said:


> Are you serious? Did you know that current DoD formula is $1 million per a US soldier, per a year deployed (and that has been consistent as per the white house)? WTF? How can that be proportional in anyway? I remember reading that it cost the Army $250k to deploy a soldier to OIF/OEF with all equipment needed. That’s not including sustaining the soldier, or paying that soldier.
> 
> Mara, I know you’re an Intel officer, but come on…. Do you really think any of this is realistic? Do you really feel we could not cut that cost down dramatically? Do you really think the Intel community is producing $75 billion is quality information? No disrespect meant towards you, but I think these number are crazy...



I will echo what Mara has already said, that number is for the entire intelligence community, not just military intelligence.  We know about all of the intelligence failures but there are successes every day that no one will ever hear about.  Without getting into OPSEC, keep in mind that there are a lot of technical collection means that cost money to develop and sustain.  Also, the intel community is an bureaucracy like any other and even the CIA has to hire secretaries and janitors.  Guess what, non-sexy but vital jobs like that janitor's payroll is probably part of that budget.


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## pardus (Mar 15, 2011)

So I can sweep halls but produce a CIA card to the chicks in the bar?

I'm fucking there dude!  :cool:


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## pardus (Mar 15, 2011)

SpitfireV said:


> You guys do a pretty good job catching agents, too, it seems. That's a pretty important part of the intel equation. Whether that's mostly down to the FBI being pretty good at it, sloppy tradecraft or your own agents or highly likely a combination of all three, who knows.
> 
> Either way, it's good work.



Yeah? Well the FBI wasn't too  good at intel or rules of engagement at Ruby Ridge from what I remember...


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## Dame (Mar 15, 2011)

pardus said:


> So I can sweep halls but produce a CIA card to the chicks in the bar?
> I'm fucking there dude!  :cool:



Huh. My DHS badge doesn't have that effect. Must be doing it wrong.


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## pardus (Mar 15, 2011)

Dame said:


> Huh. My DHS badge doesn't have that effect. Must be doing it wrong.




You don't a have a dick...


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## SpitfireV (Mar 16, 2011)

pardus said:


> Yeah? Well the FBI wasn't too  good at intel or rules of engagement at Ruby Ridge from what I remember...



Don't really care about something that happened 20 years ago. It's not really relevant since presumably we're talking about national security intelligence here, not criminal intelligence.


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## AWP (Mar 16, 2011)

Dame said:


> Huh. My DHS badge doesn't have that effect. Must be doing it wrong.



Maybe you're an ugly lesbian?


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 16, 2011)

I am not attempting to take any glory away from the Intel community as a whole, but when it costs just over $209 million per a day (24 hour period) I tend to think there is some mega waste going on…


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## Dame (Mar 16, 2011)

Freefalling said:


> Maybe you're an ugly lesbian?



As the amazing voice of experience you are, I can only surmise you are passing along nuggets of wisdom that someone gave you in your quest for answers while you were _Chasing Amy_.


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## mike_cos (Mar 16, 2011)

Manolito said:


> If I grade them on allowing a Private to copy and steal thousands of documents my return sucks.



US intel is the biggest over the world,but actually not the best, for me there is something to improve.
http://www.shadowspear.com/vb/threads/julian-paul-assange.8154/


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## Crusader74 (Mar 16, 2011)

I think people forget just how big the US Intelligence Community are..would they be over 10,000? I'd say so.  Apart from the few here who are within that circle no one can say it is a waste of money.. I'm sure  a lot of that money is for paid informants from all over the world. Equipment is expensive to run and update ., I would also guess monies is used to develop new UAV's and stuff like that.. That is all big bucks.. I know it doesn't add up to the amount above but i'm sure it would add to quite a lot.


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## Marauder06 (Mar 17, 2011)

JAB said:


> Are you serious? Did you know that current DoD formula is $1 million per a US soldier, per a year deployed (and that has been consistent as per the white house)? WTF? How can that be proportional in anyway? I remember reading that it cost the Army $250k to deploy a soldier to OIF/OEF with all equipment needed. That’s not including sustaining the soldier, or paying that soldier.
> 
> Mara, I know you’re an Intel officer, but come on…. Do you really think any of this is realistic? Do you really feel we could not cut that cost down dramatically? Do you really think the Intel community is producing $75 billion is quality information? No disrespect meant towards you, but I think these number are crazy...



Fair enough questions.  I'll start by saying it's very, very hard to quantify "intel successes," especially in an unclassified forum, so I won't even try to justify return on investment (ROI) when it comes to intel; either you believe it's worth it or you don't.  Moreover, I'm not a budget expert.  In fact, intel budget issues confuse me so much that I'm taking a class on intel budgeting and accountability right now for my master's.  Unfortunately it just started so I'm not an expert... and even more unfortunately given the way class is going I'll never be,  but that's not important for this post.

That said, yes I do think the budget is proportional.  Given the importance of intel, what would you think an appropriate expenditure ratio would be between intel and the rest of the operational budge, 25%, 10%, 5%?  When considering the MIP ($27 billion in 2010) against the budget of the DoD ($533.7 billion baseline plus $130 supplemental in 2010 = ~$663 billion), it works out to under 4% $27 billion divided by $663 billion).  Simply put, when you compare the overall MIP to the overall DoD budget, it works out that the MIP is 4% of the DoD budget.  I think that's pretty good.

The above is not an exact apples-to-apples comparison but I think it's good enough to show how "small" the military intelligence budget is compared to the overall DoD budget.  Moreover, even if you use the entire $75 billion figure, you've got to spread that out through all sixteen members of the intel community, which includes organizations you'd expect but probably some you didn't, like the Department of Energy, DEA, and State Department.

I've heard the "$1 million to deploy a Soldier" figure before, but I wasn't able to find it in anything I consider credible during a quick online search.  I ascribe it to the "lies, damn lies, and statistics" school of journalism (an excellent example of which was on display on the front page of the Washington Post earlier this week).  In short, I think what happened was someone figured that the war cost XXX billion a year, that there were YYY personnel deployed, so therefore it "cost" ZZZ per Soldier.  That is misleading because it overlooks some very conspicuous and costly expenses, such as infrastructure, rebuilding, etc. that are not directly related to the true cost of deploying an individual Soldier.  Moreover, I'm not sure that the cost per Soldier is really relevant in a discussion about the intel budget; no matter how much it costs to get those Soldiers cost to deploy, someone has to figure out where they need to go, and who they need to fight once they get there, right?

$75 billion is A LOT of money, no doubt.  But when considered against what the intel community accomplishes compared to the cost of what happens when the security structure fails, I think the investment is worth it.


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## Marauder06 (Mar 17, 2011)

Irish said:


> I think people forget just how big the US Intelligence Community are..would they be over 10,000? ...



According to Wikipedia, it's a little bit bigger than that ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Intelligence_Community




> the intelligence community as a whole includes_ 854,000 people_ who hold top-secret clearances


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## Crusader74 (Mar 17, 2011)

Marauder06 said:


> According to Wikipedia, it's a little bit bigger than that ;)
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Intelligence_Community




Well there you go JAB... I think that answered your question..:)


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## DA SWO (Mar 17, 2011)

Let's watch what happens in Libya.  French and British smash ADA sites, then our intel is pretty spot on. French and British lose a bunch of planes; then the intel was weak.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 17, 2011)

Very good points Mara.


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## mike_cos (Mar 18, 2011)

mmmh...in recent years this figure are not so clear... 'couse strategy is not clear... for example:"The Minister of Defense Robert Gates announced in Washington a temporary increase of 22 thousand units' in the overall U.S. military strength. The increase will allow 'the Pentagon to ease the staffing problems caused by the need' to keep troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The temporary increase will bring '547.000 from a total of 569 000 of the U.S. military." (Source DoD *july 2009*)
And in *2011 january* :"The U.S. defense secretary, Robert Gates, announced cuts of 78 billion dollars in the U.S. defense budget by 2015 and a reduction of staff in the army and the marines. The cuts announced will be added to one hundred billion it expects to save over the next five years in areas already 'identified by Army, Navy and Air Force and then reallocate them to other military programs. Gates's plan calls for a reduction of 15-20 thousand units 'in the Marine Corps, of 27 thousand in the army personnel reduction is in addition to that already 'planned for 22 thousand units', for a total of less 49mila military. These measures will not enter into force before 2015. "One of the main targets - said Gates - in addition to the savings and 'Department to make this less cumbersome more' agile and effective in 'execution of its responsibilities'." "I hope that the result of these changes correspond in time to move from a culture of money without limits, where costs are rarely taken into account to a culture of savings and containment," said the head of the Defense, quoted the American media. Sitting next to Gates during a briefing at the Pentagon, the 'Admiral Mike Mullen, chief of the Joint Chiefs, dismissing early criticism of the reduction of troops, and spoke of "modest changes" and compatible with the commitments of the country in particular "compared to where we should be in Afghanistan in 2015." "My message to allies and friends," echoed Gates "is that the president understands and accepts our global responsibilities and will continue to invest in defense so that it can support our military strength and 
fulfill our global commitments. " (Source: DoD)
Now I discover that 845.000 people are involved in intel community.... but, what is the ratio between intel and military in terms of units? It seems a little bit unbalanced towards intel... or not? (with reference also to other countries)

P.S. I agree with Mara: it's imbossible to calculate intel ROI... (intel it's not investment... but simply a security cost... )


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