# How good is the Syrian Military?



## DA SWO (Jun 26, 2012)

With Turkey and Syria seemingly headed to war, the question is; How good is the Sryian Military?


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 26, 2012)

SOWT said:


> With Turkey and Syria seemingly headed to war, the question is; How good is the Sryian Military?


 
Not good enough to fight off NATO.


----------



## QC (Jun 26, 2012)

Haven't some of the Syrian brass started to desert?


----------



## Scotth (Jun 26, 2012)

Turkey has really upped it's rhetoric.  The Prime Minister's weekend comments were almost apologetic for the F-4 flying into Syrian air space to now he considers it an act of war.  I wonder what has changed or if the Prime Minister was just that unprepared to respond to what happened this past weekend?


----------



## DA SWO (Jun 26, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Not good enough to fight off NATO.


NATO has had an easy time (air war-wise) in it's previous engagements; would we be able to overwhelm the Air defense Net, and what role does Russia play?

Do Syrian proxy's (aka Hamas and Hezbollah) get involved?


----------



## dknob (Jun 26, 2012)

like all Arabic militaries.

shit probably


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 26, 2012)

dknob said:


> like all Arabic militaries.
> 
> shit probably


 
They would say that they're not Arabs, they're Turks ;)

I would have to pick Turkey to win this one, especially against a country who pretty much everyone seems to hate, and already has a civil war going on.


----------



## dknob (Jun 26, 2012)

Syrian's consider themselves Turks?

We should attack them just for being ignorant


----------



## QC (Jun 26, 2012)

Yep, I'd pick the Turks, Aussies have a history there.


----------



## Brill (Jun 26, 2012)

Interesting article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ning/2012/06/26/gJQAlYNy4V_story.html?hpid=z3
*Syrian downing of Turkish jet serves as warning*

At least on paper, U.S. military officials said, the Syrian air defenses appear to be far more robust than those encountered by NATO in Libya and stronger than even Iran.
“I can name you worse [systems], but they are in places like China,” said an Air Force official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Concerns about the capability of the Syrian military are only one reason that the international community has refused to intervene in President Bashar al-Assad’s bloody crackdown on opposition groups.
But defense officials and military analysts say defeating Syria’s air defenses would require a sustained U.S. military effort, which would probably lead to civilian casualties.

In the wake of the 2007 raid by Israel on the al-Kibar nuclear reactor, Syria spent billions of dollars to upgrade its 1960s- and 1970s-era missile defenses. Among those purchases was the SA-22 Pantsir armored rocket system, which some defense officials speculated may have been used against the Turkish jet.


----------



## CDG (Jun 26, 2012)

lindy said:


> said an Air Force official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.


 
Shocking.  Absolutely shocking.


----------



## Brill (Jun 26, 2012)

CDG said:


> Shocking. Absolutely shocking.


 
DNI has had enough.  Although his policy doesn't cover the White House.

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/...sures-aimed-at-plugging-leaks/?iref=allsearch


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 26, 2012)

dknob said:


> Syrian's consider themselves Turks?
> 
> We should attack them just for being ignorant



Lol,  my mistake, I was referring to the turks.  I assume the syrians consider themelves Arab.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 26, 2012)

lindy said:


> DNI has had enough.  Although his policy doesn't cover the White House.
> 
> http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/...sures-aimed-at-plugging-leaks/?iref=allsearch




Yep.  Clapper can investigate inside the IC all he likes, but there are some major issues in the political realm that he can not control.


----------



## Brill (Jun 26, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Yep. Clapper can investigate inside the IC all he likes, but there are some major issues in the political realm that he can not control.


 
Just like DHS: semblance of security.  Gotta do something so we can tell Congress "See, I did something about the leaks!"


----------



## AWP (Jun 27, 2012)

Syria would love a war against Turkey right now, something to rally the people around their murderous gov't.


----------



## Brill (Jun 27, 2012)

Nah, Bashir's on his way out.  He's just making sure his stuff is deposited into the right accounts and preparing his loyalists (wanna guess which political party they belong to?) for a long protracted insurgency.


----------



## AWP (Jun 27, 2012)

You're probably right, but human nature being what it is I thought I'd mention it. It isn't like a nation has ever trumped up a war to rally the locals...


----------



## Brill (Jun 27, 2012)

Freefalling said:


> You're probably right, but human nature being what it is I thought I'd mention it. It isn't like a nation has ever trumped up a war to rally the locals...


 
You shouldn't talk about Kosovo like that.  Remember the song "Good Old Shoe"?


----------



## RetPara (Jun 29, 2012)

At one time the Syrian military was probably the best of Arab armies.  This was due largely I believe to the large Soviet MAAG in Syrian that worked with their Army and Air Force.  They actually have the best track record against their primary competition IDF.  In the 1973 meeting, Syrian forces got to within 12 miles of the Israeli coast, but "choked" instead of executing a first string (T-62) play against a reserve defense (a Battalion of M-4 Shermans with 105MM guns).  Their next match up in 1982 went much worse as the IAF completely outclassed the then start of the art air defense that Syrian had brought in.  Then in 1984 a possible ground rematch was postponed indefinitely.  So after the 2007 non-match up, there was probably an upgrade put in place.  Unlike any place else since 1991, any new festivities will require a well planned and executed SEAD at kickoff.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 29, 2012)

I wonder how impressive that really is, though.  Israel isn't that wide to begin with, it's something like 71-85 miles at its widest point, which isn't the border with Syria.  Combine this with the fact that the war started as a surprise attack by the Arabs, and that the Israelis were fending off more than one attacker, I'm not sure Syria's performance was all that good.  That's especially true since the Israelis counterattacked into Syria.

I was actually far more impressed with the Egyptians' ability to pull off a surprise contested river crossing of the Suez.


----------



## RetPara (Jun 29, 2012)

Point In Fact.  However, the Syrian made a deliberate assault through a prepared, deliberate defense in depth.  This is an absolute classic modern assault on a well prepared defense.   Meanwhile in Sinai, the Egyptians waited till AFTER the Syrians attacked to kick their assault off.  Also the flow of initial reinforcements from the IDF call up initially went to the Golan, while trading land for time in Sinai.

I also spent some time talking with some of ODA that was assigned to 'liaison' with the Syrian Armour Division during DS/DS.  Of all the other coalition forces, the Syrians were the most disciplined.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 29, 2012)

Roger.  I never worked with the Syrians, but I dealt with the Iraqis (post-invasion) the Egyptians and the Jordanians, I kind of felt the Jordanians had their act together the best.  Their country was cleanest, at least. ;)


----------



## RetPara (Jun 29, 2012)

The Jordanians are 'nice' but the Syrians are the most ruthless and have more combat experience.


----------



## Etype (Jul 7, 2012)

RetPara said:


> any new festivities will require a well planned and executed SEAD at kickoff.


No problem.


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 7, 2012)

RetPara said:


> The Jordanians are 'nice' but the Syrians are the most ruthless and have more combat experience.


US Navy didn't fare so well the last time the flew over Syrian trained ADA folks....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Goodman


----------



## talonlm (Jul 8, 2012)

This would be more like the war with Serbia in 1999--lots of standoff work, cruise missiles, and patience.

The Syrian IADS is nothing to trifle with.Syria uses a lot of older single-digit SAM systems--SA-2/3/5/6--capable enough, but older systems with known weaknesses and exploitations, as demonstrated by Orchard in 2007.Syria started upgrading their IADS after that, but never really got the chance to finish before this rebellion flared up. They did, however, get their hands on some good equipment. The Pantsir is probably what popped the Turkish RF-4C.Short ranged, but a very, very good system there.Like a Tunguska on steroids.They also bought the S-300; export version of the SA-10 or SA-20, depending on the missile purchased and upgrades.Good long range SAM system.And, of course, the requisite mega-sh!t ton of various MANPADS, everything from the SA-7 to the SA-18, and every form of AAA ever created by the Soviets. There are questions regarding maintenance practices and training, but it's probably smarter to assume they know what they're doing with the equipment until we know for certain that's not the case. By no means a walk in the park, but certainly not unbeatable, either.


----------



## Brill (Jul 8, 2012)

RetPara said:


> any new festivities will require a well planned and executed SEAD at kickoff.


 
Or an email. :nerd:


----------



## AWP (Jul 8, 2012)

One would think that our forays into RP6 during the late 60's and early 70's taught the world the validity of a layered air defense network.

Except the US...AAA is apparently beneath us.


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 8, 2012)

Freefalling said:


> One would think that our forays into RP6 during the late 60's and early 70's taught the world the validity of a layered air defense network.
> 
> Except the US...AAA is apparently beneath us.


Army and AF are geared towards Offense, AAA is a defensive weapon.


----------



## talonlm (Jul 8, 2012)

SOWT said:


> Army and AF are geared towards Offense, AAA is a defensive weapon.


 
Been a loooonnngggg time since US troop have had to contend with enemy air.  Artillery (rockets and the like) yeah, but it's been since '91 that an enemy air force has even _tried_ to launch an air attack on us.   It's hard to get them to even launch interceptors on us any more.  Air superiority is nice, so long as we can keep it.


----------



## pardus (Jul 8, 2012)

talonlm said:


> Air superiority is nice, so long as we can keep it.


 
So is GPS...


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 9, 2012)

talonlm said:


> Been a loooonnngggg time since US troop have had to contend with enemy air. Artillery (rockets and the like) yeah, but it's been since '91 that an enemy air force has even _tried_ to launch an air attack on us. It's hard to get them to even launch interceptors on us any more. Air superiority is nice, so long as we can keep it.


I thought it was 1998, Kosovo, 2 kils via F-15.  Serb pilots E&E'd back home.


----------



## talonlm (Jul 9, 2012)

MiG-29s launched towards Bosnia, but I never found out if they were on a strike or simply intercept; I am not sure about that one.  The one I'm referring to is the Iraqi Mirage F-1 run down the gulf in '91 the Saudis ended with an F-15.  Last one I know of that actually got close-ish.


----------



## SpitfireV (Jul 10, 2012)

I've got a book written by an ex fighter pilot who describes all the US kills from after Vietnam to the present. I'm sure there were quite a number of close ones but I'll have a read tonight and see.


----------



## Crusader74 (Jul 10, 2012)

War games recently held....


----------



## RetPara (Jul 10, 2012)

SpitfireV said:


> I've got a book written by an ex fighter pilot who describes all the US kills from after Vietnam to the present. I'm sure there were quite a number of close ones but I'll have a read tonight and see.


 
The USAF did a study about all USAF air to air engagements and USN/USMC engagements where guns or missiles are actually fired called Project Red Baron.   Apparently it has been declassified. The documents in their original form were each in their own 3 inch binder.  It will take a few minutes to down load.


Volume 1- http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADC003627

Volume 2- http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADC003628

Volume 3- http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADC003629


The stuff is kinda geeky, but if your into air to air shit this stuff right up there with cold beer, rolled toilet paper, and sex (with a human female weighing less than 150lbs).


----------



## talonlm (Jul 10, 2012)

Less than 150?  Fat chicks need love, too!


----------



## SpitfireV (Jul 10, 2012)

RetPara said:


> The USAF did a study about all USAF air to air engagements and USN/USMC engagements where guns or missiles are actually fired called Project Red Baron. Apparently it has been declassified. The documents in their original form were each in their own 3 inch binder. It will take a few minutes to down load.
> 
> 
> Volume 1- http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADC003627
> ...


 
Yeah I am into that geeky shit, thanks for the links


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 13, 2012)

So what do you all think?  Is Syria really dumb enough to overtly use chem weapons on its own people right now?

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...-syria-moving-chemical-weapons-stockpile?lite




> A U.S. official confirmed Friday that the Syrian regime has been moving elements of its chemical weapons stockpile in recent days, an action that has U.S. officials both concerned and perplexed.
> "We don't know why" they have begun moving chemical weapons from storage, the source said, refusing to speculate whether President Bashar Assad's regime could be preparing to use the weapons on the civilian uprising.


----------



## AWP (Jul 13, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> So what do you all think? Is Syria really dumb enough to overtly use chem weapons on its own people right now?


 
I don't put it past anyone anymore, but it makes me wonder: If we invaded Iraq because it "had" WMD and then Syria who really has WMD USES it against its own people...

Amerrricaaaaaaaa, (Insert Mandarin Chinese translation of 'Fuck yeah')!!!!!


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 13, 2012)

Freefalling said:


> I don't put it past anyone anymore, but it makes me wonder: If we invaded Iraq because it "had" WMD and then Syria who really has WMD USES it against its own people...
> 
> Amerrricaaaaaaaa, (Insert Mandarin Chinese translation of 'Fuck yeah')!!!!!


 
Well, you know what happened, right?  All those WMDs got moved OUT of Iraq and INTO Syria.  Now the Syrians don't want the rebels to capture the WMDs from Iraq and prove Bush right, so they're moving them.  With all of the stable, helpful countries bordering Syria, I'm sure they will have no problem getting them covertly out of the country.


----------



## AWP (Jul 13, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Well, you know what happened, right? All those WMDs got moved OUT of Iraq and INTO Syria. Now the Syrians don't want the rebels to capture the WMDs from Iraq and prove Bush right, so they're moving them. With all of the stable, helpful countries bordering Syria, I'm sure they will have no problem getting them covertly out of the country.


 
We could chase WMD's all over the ME like Billy in the Family Circus cartoon or at the end of the Benny Hill show.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 13, 2012)

It wouldn't surprise me if all those WMDs were on the long road to Moscow.


----------



## talonlm (Jul 14, 2012)

Syria's or Saddam's? 

Is Asad moving them out of security concerns?  This rebellion certainly seems annoying to the average loyalist Syrian, but I don't think Asad would be so desperate as to acutally use them.  He may not want to run the risk of them falling into rebel hands.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 14, 2012)

talonlm said:


> *Syria's or Saddam's?*
> 
> Is Asad moving them out of security concerns? This rebellion certainly seems annoying to the average loyalist Syrian, but I don't think Asad would be so desperate as to acutally use them. He may not want to run the risk of them falling into rebel hands.


 
Both.


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 15, 2012)

RackMaster said:


> It wouldn't surprise me if all those WMDs were on the long road to Moscow.


That would be great news.
I think Putin would do a better job not using them.
Could they get used, yes.
Some Commander gets pissed enough he could decide to eliminate a small section of Syria (who'd know?)


----------



## RetPara (Jul 18, 2012)

That would correlate nicely with the Russian naval and troop presence.  It would also buy a Bashir et al a ticket to Russia for an extended vacation.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 18, 2012)

I doubt even if we had pictures of Putin and Asad shaking hands with WMD's in the background and their signatures/DNA/fingerprints for authenticity; the public wouldn't believe it. 

Shit that's a run on sentence. lol


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 18, 2012)

Fox is reporting that there is anticipation of "something big" about to happen in Damascus; big as in maybe the government is about to collapse.  I also saw that suicide bombers got their SECDEF (or was it their Chairman of the Joint Chiefs equivalent?).  At any rate, looks like things are about to "get real" in Syria.


----------



## AWP (Jul 18, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Fox is reporting that there is anticipation of "something big" about to happen in Damascus; big as in maybe the government is about to collapse. I also saw that suicide bombers got their SECDEF (or was it their Chairman of the Joint Chiefs equivalent?). At any rate, looks like things are about to "get real" in Syria.


 
The Red Cross finally declared it a war this week. Thanks guys! It was nothing until then...


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 18, 2012)

Did they say it was a a civil war?  If so, then everyone is going to start crying about "responsibility to protect," the UN (i.e. the US) is then going to get involved, and extremists everywhere are going to thank us for toppling yet another semi-secular strong man and turning yet another country into a haven for religious zealots.


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 18, 2012)

Bad for Obama as they don't need this before November.


----------



## AWP (Jul 19, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Did they say it was a a civil war?


 
Yes they did....because it was a few angry students playing D&D before then I guess.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 19, 2012)

Well then, you can expect to start hearing the clamoring for "responsibility to protect," or as I am starting to consider it, "why is it my" responsibility to protect.


----------



## AWP (Jul 19, 2012)

Marauder06 said:


> Well then, you can expect to start hearing the clamoring for "responsibility to protect," or as I am starting to consider it, "why is it my" responsibility to protect.


 
There's a scene in Red Dawn where after the AF Colonel is shot down the kids are asking him about the war. One of them says something like "What about the rest of Europe?" The Col. replies that they figured two world wars in the same century was enough so they are going to "sit this one out."

I'm starting to wonder how many "police actions" we need before we sit one out.

What's in it for us?


----------



## DA SWO (Jul 19, 2012)

Freefalling said:


> There's a scene in Red Dawn where after the AF Colonel is shot down the kids are asking him about the war. One of them says something like "What about the rest of Europe?" The Col. replies that they figured two world wars in the same century was enough so they are going to "sit this one out."
> 
> I'm starting to wonder how many "police actions" we need before we sit one out.
> 
> What's in it for us?


We are not there yet; we will sit it out when the welfare checks start bouncing, and not before that.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 19, 2012)

Freefalling said:


> There's a scene in Red Dawn where after the AF Colonel is shot down the kids are asking him about the war. One of them says something like "What about the rest of Europe?" The Col. replies that they figured two world wars in the same century was enough so they are going to "sit this one out."
> 
> I'm starting to wonder how many "police actions" we need before we sit one out.
> 
> What's in it for us?


 
Part of the problem, IMO, is that most of the people making the decisions to intervene militarily 1) have never served in the armed forces, in any capacity, much less in combat; and 2) never have to pay a price in any meaningful way when their decision to intervene goes off the rails.  So "doing something" plays well with their electoral base (which, by the way, have never served and don't have to pay a meaningful price, either) and makes for good sound bites on the international news, without consideration of the unintended consequences of those actions, even if the intervention is successful.

I strongly dislike the government of Syria, but I dislike Islamic extremists, which are the mostly alternative (just like in Egypt), even more.


----------



## Chopstick (Sep 8, 2013)

I found this thread while looking for something else.  Last posted in July 2012.  It makes for an interesting re read at this point in time.


----------



## CQB (Sep 9, 2013)

Ah, the ME, a great place for a nuclear war.


----------

