# Ukraine - Russia Conflict



## pardus (Feb 25, 2022)

So by now we all know that Russia has invaded Ukraine. 
NATO is refusing to join the conflict unless it spills over into a NATO country. The west is mobilizing some forces for such an eventuality. 
Chechnya is sending troops to fight with Russia against Ukraine. Ukraine is asking for military trained volunteers to come and fight with them. 

What do you think Putin’s ultimate goal is? Conquer and annex Ukraine? A limited offensive to weaken Ukraine so much that he will be able to manipulate them to his will? Limited territorial gains to secure a land bridge and water for Crimea and secure a buffer zone for Russia’s security?
Something different?

Tell us your thoughts, post updates, pics and videos.


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## Gunz (Feb 25, 2022)

Annex Ukraine like he did with the Crimea.


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## Isiah6:8 (Feb 25, 2022)

I believe the end goal is to take over Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and potentially Kazakhstan on this go around.  It will be interesting given the high percentage of Russia's military force being concentrated to Ukraine if other powers make Putin "feel" the effect of being so concentrated.


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## Devildoc (Feb 25, 2022)

Interesting comments Putin made about Sweden and Finland and NATO.  Finland, who is the honey badger of Europe, is seriously considering membership now.

I don't think he'll go for any NATO country, but the others are in his optic.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

Honestly, very hard to tell what his aims were.  I thought that the intent was maximum resources for limited aims and taking all of Donbass Region (Donetsk and Luhansk).  But then he opened a full assault on multiple fronts, in some sense the Ukrainians were spread thin, but this also kept the Russian Army thin.  

The weird part about deploying Chechens means Ukraine didn't fall fast like he thought it would and we're talking about some pretty nasty dudes that may be as effective as a poorly paid conscript tactically but is there more for the rape and pillage portion.  

But we kept chirping saying we knew this was going to happen and we did nothing about it, now as far as western sanctions? Pretty worthless unless you shut off the spice.  Treasury has exempted the Russian Energy sector from Sanctions and this Administration along with the EU has chosen not to kick them out from SWIFT.  Those should have been the first moves on the table, but hey don't worry Germany is buying tons and tons of NG and Gasoline from pipelines that traverse through the Ukraine.


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## Devildoc (Feb 25, 2022)

Sanctions won't work unless all the countries are all in, and right now there's a lot of resistance to that. If we freeze that assets and the UK freezes assets, that helps, but he can just move money in other ways.


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## Flagg (Feb 25, 2022)

It’s not good.

The rational decision for Putin was to maximise tension for profit(Nord Stream pipeline revenue going up from the tension he created) and influence, beneath the threshold of war. 

Instead Putin chose the seemingly irrational decision that reminds me of Heath Ledger’s Joker burning the mountain of money in Batman: 




Putin is displaying a willingness to sacrifice anything/everything to achieve his objectives.

Putin refers to the collapse of the Soviet Union as the worst geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.

I would say how the collapse was managed was the bigger crisis.

$250 billion or so of grey money was stripped out of the former Soviet Union in the 90’s(back when that was a lot of money) and sucked into western banks, most comfortably in The City of London.

That was like kicking Russia in the head while it was already down in the gutter.

Putin reportedly drove a taxi cab or at least considered it to keep food on the table, or so the story goes.

I think the extreme emasculation/humiliation the Soviet Union suffered, as well as Putin personally, has been a key driver towards this tipping point.

I think it is supported by Putin’s absolute disregard for, and disrespect of, the UK with Polonium Tea and Novichok state sanctioned targeted killings that are seemingly sloppy from a tradecraft perspective, but are effective in geopolitical signalling.

Ukraine is several levels of magnitude higher.

I think Putin could have humbled the US/NATO by staying beneath the threshold of war by simply playing with the tension dial  for profit and influence. That was the rational/logical choice. 

Instead Putin appears to be trying to emasculate/humiliate the US/NATO with his seeming willingness to sacrifice anything/everything to achieve his objectives with the seemingly irrational/illogical choice.

Putin has $600B in cash reserves, more than the US and Germany combined. He is going to need that as strategic depth to get thru after he lit his Nord Stream pipeline cash flow on fire.

What are we missing from the risk calculus?


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## Locksteady (Feb 25, 2022)

pardus said:


> What do you think Putin’s ultimate goal is? Conquer and annex Ukraine? A limited offensive to weaken Ukraine so much that he will be able to manipulate them to his will? Limited territorial gains to secure a land bridge and water for Crimea and secure a buffer zone for Russia’s security?
> Something different?


Contain, by force if needed, any non-NATO neighboring countries whose leaders resist being controlled by Putin and whose democratic examples expose in stark relief the shortcomings of the Russian kleptocracy and its related narrative of supremacy.

In the case of Ukraine, a full invasion and absorption of the region will contain NATO encroachment while keeping its European members off-balance by expanding Russian territory that much closer to NATO boundaries.

Ukraine is also replete with natural resources, and Germany's freeze of Nord Stream II owing to the invasion further incentivizes Russia to go full Leroy Jenkins and completely annex Ukraine.


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## RackMaster (Feb 25, 2022)

That's a win!


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## RackMaster (Feb 25, 2022)

So Canada has already airlifted some "lethal aid" to Ukraine.  We're about to send another 460 troops to add to the 800 already in Latvia.  We have 850'ish troops in Iraq still.  We're short 1000 sailor's and unable to man our new Arctic Patrol Ships.  But they scrounged up 3400 troops, on high readiness to deploy to support NATO.  Canada is punching above its weight, there's no way we could sustain that beyond a few month's.  Less if we had casualties.

8 Wing Trenton airlifts military equipment to Ukraine to fend off Russian invasion


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## The91Bravo (Feb 25, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> View attachment 38850
> 
> That's a win!


That’s AWESOME. That will work better than financial sanctions for sure


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## RackMaster (Feb 25, 2022)

Canada is going to win this for the world!  Not the vodka!!

Liquor stores in Canada, including LCBO, pull Russian products from shelves


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## Devildoc (Feb 25, 2022)

I think Russia is going to need almost every bit of that 600 billion of cash reserve. They're going to end up overextending themselves if this thing is not wrapped up in a week, and that military doesn't have the size or teeth to follow Putin's ambitions the way the military did in the '50s, '60s, and '70s.  Add their stock marking taking a major hit, assets being frozen, other sanctions, babushka sniping their soldiers in the street, and all the riots back home, the thing does not add up well for Putin.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

Russia vetoes resolution that would condemn their invasion...unsurprised. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497342131358285827


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## Gunz (Feb 25, 2022)

Flagg said:


> I think the extreme emasculation/humiliation the Soviet Union suffered, as well as Putin personally, has been a key driver towards this tipping point.



There's certainly merit in that. It irked the "old guard" something awful to see the Iron Curtain go NATO.

In the past few days Putin has been spewing belligerent testosterone toward the US, reminiscent of the old Soviet days and Khrushchev's famous "We will bury you" outburst. It's almost as if he's high on Soviet nostalgia, all pumped up to see the tanks rolling again, just like the bad old days of the Cold War...like rolling into Hungary in '56 and Czechoslovakia in '68, cracking down on the reformists with T-55s.

In the meantime he'll wipe his ass with sanctions, even if they hurt his people...a minor inconvenience...and congratulate himself that the EU/NATO-loving Nazi's on his southern flank will soon be back in the fold.


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## Devildoc (Feb 25, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Russia vetoes resolution that would condemn their invasion...unsurprised.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497342131358285827



China abstained.  That cannot make Russia feel the least bit comfortable in their relationship right now.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

Interestingly China has actually sanctioned Russia...

China State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities


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## Ooh-Rah (Feb 25, 2022)

Ummm…this is not friendly. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497360661084622860


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## CQB (Feb 25, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> China abstained.  That cannot make Russia feel the least bit comfortable in their relationship right now.


The PRC stance is interesting though not unusual as it’s a core belief not to interfere in a sovereign state.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Ummm…this is not friendly.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497360661084622860


Second one of those of I've seen.  Ivan definitely has a completely different ROE. . .


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## Marauder06 (Feb 25, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Interestingly China has actually sanctioned Russia...
> 
> China State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities



I read that earlier and thought it was interesting.  This isn't my field, but it seems to me that China is merely cutting them off from dollar borrowing, and that they are more than willing to loan in yuan.  To me this is part of China's bid to take over as the world's fiat currency.


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## SpitfireV (Feb 25, 2022)

I think they can't keep this up. Ukraine is already giving them a good run, even if they might lose in the very end. The pressure at home from both political leaders and the public might invite a movement against Putin eventually.


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## Devildoc (Feb 25, 2022)

CQB said:


> The PRC stance is interesting though not unusual as it’s a core belief not to interfere in a sovereign state.



Copy that, looks like they're interfering a little bit with at least limited sanctions.  I think they want to be best buddies and all, but I think they're also smart enough to hedge their bets until they see what the outcome is going to be.b


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## CQB (Feb 25, 2022)

Yep, an astute play.


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## SpitfireV (Feb 25, 2022)

They will also want Russia's energy and Russia needs to export it if it's not going to Europe so they'll potentially have a strong position to negotiate there.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

From an IO Perspective, if you want to somehow make your war a just cause.  If we look at what Putin has done post 2008 regarding preparations.  Brought industries back to Russia to insulate itself from sanctions.  Post 2014 the government has gobbled up the independent press. Every major outlet in Russia is now State Owned and for months they've been making Ukraine into a bogeyman.  In the near parts of Russia on the border of Ukraine people who are being interviewed on the street either think this is a training exercise or that the Ukrainians are Nazis and committing injustice.  It seems the only place where people are able to get outside information is in the large cities where the protests are, _and those are being dealt with like Trudeau dealt with truckers. /sarc_

If you remove Russia from SWIFT it will have a massive impact, but for the populace in the short term they'll be insulated due to the introduction of the MIR card in 2019 for Russia only transactions: Russia's Alternative to Western Credit Cards Debuts in London


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## RackMaster (Feb 25, 2022)

Looks like it could end quickly. 

Ukraine ready to negotiate with Russia


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 25, 2022)

How does this guy still have a platform?  

John Kerry urges Putin to not let Ukraine invasion distract from combating climate change


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## digrar (Feb 25, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Ummm…this is not friendly.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497360661084622860



Surprisingly, I did see a pic of an old bloke crawling out of the wrecked car.


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## Archangel27 (Feb 25, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Ummm…this is not friendly.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497360661084622860


Geez. Everything going sideways next door.  Palpable sense of frustration here on everyone's part.


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## Sigaba (Feb 26, 2022)

Flagg said:


> What are we missing from the risk calculus?


Maybe considerations centered around domestic politics? While I am not a big believer in the "lessons of history," it would not be the first time that a strong man resorted to war because of his reading of domestic affairs.


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## Locksteady (Feb 26, 2022)

Sigaba said:


> Maybe considerations centered around domestic politics? While I am not a big believer in the "lessons of history," it would not be the first time that a strong man resorted to war because of his reading of domestic affairs.


Agreed.

His popular support has gradually waned following the initial spike from the annexation of Crimea, and he is using nationalist rhetoric to gloss over increased domestic corruption and economic failures in order to try and galvanize those same affected Russians against a supposed external existential threat.

The Russian public's response to his pivot towards full-scale invasion appears to reflect the accuracy of Putin's reading of his own domestic support:

Prominent Russians join protests against Ukraine war amid 1,800 arrests

Note*: *Those 1800+ arrests just account for _*Thursday night*_ across 50+ Russian cities.


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

This is a good YouTube channel with footage inside Ukraine.


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

So at D+2 I've noticed some little things:

1. Russian logistics suck.
2. Russian night fighting capabilities are almost nil.
3. SEAD isn't a thing.
4. Anecdotal video of Russian troops saying they they thought they were on a training ex, they were just told to "go" etc. This could be just standard CAC talking points but we'll see.

An absolutely horrific situation for the people of UKR but we're seeing Russian doctrine at work, and I'm kinda underwhelmed.

*Edit* Additional thoughts: Putin cannot afford to have this turn into a COIN fight when you've got a supply chain from Poland flooding the country with NLAWs/Javs/Stingers and everything else.  10th Group must be salivating...


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## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

Domestic unrest? 

The T-72B3.


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## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

Queeg said:


> So at D+2 I've noticed some little things:
> 
> 1. Russian logistics suck.
> 2. Russian night fighting capabilities are almost nil.
> ...



It hasn't turned into the juggernaut many expected.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Apparently we asked Zelensky to evacuate.  He said naw, send ammo. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497428052988641281

@Gunz homie has been arresting protestors all week.


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

I think the effectiveness of Ukrainians, is also a testament to the training the we've provided in the past 8 year's.


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## ShadowSpear (Feb 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I think the effectiveness of Ukrainians, is also a testament to the training the we've provided in the past 8 year's.


It’s also nice to see it not turn into an Iraqi/Afghan army scenario where they all just pop smoke when the rounds start flying.


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

Anybody else on Twitter? The blow by blow accounts are fire!


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

Junk logistical tail, no airhead at D+2.  If the Ukr can hold Kyiv, they can wait out the Russkies as they shut down from fuel starvation etc.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Queeg said:


> Anybody else on Twitter? The blow by blow accounts are fire!


Yeah seeing a lot of it. 

The interesting bit is if Putin inserted green units...who the hells has green units?  What weird doctrinal shit do you have to not vary your experience?  Well I guess the sort that deploys 50k infantry to act as fodder.  Although this has been previously a heavy part of doctrine Russian Army Doctrine.  Russia started redploying troops from Grozny including ethnic Chechen units. 

So he's violated doctrine without a heavy fires campaign, SEAD and other fires which is normal.  They got bogged down in Kharkiv and then started bombardment instead of bombardment first. [shrugs]

New doctrine was focusing on creating a BCT like formation that had sustainment internally for a period of time...but apparently that doesn't work and the Russian support logistics is nothing like a Division Sustainment Brigade...

The whole IO Campaign against your own people and Army is interesting.


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## Dame (Feb 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Apparently we asked Zelensky to evacuate.  He said naw, send ammo.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497428052988641281
> ...


Oh right. Cuz the U.S. didn't humiliate themselves enough with their last "evacuation."


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

If multiple Twitter feeds are to be believed, Putin greatly underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians.  According to Riho Terras:

Putin is furious.  Putin was expecting this to be done in 1-4 days.  This war is costing them about $20 billy per day.  There are 3-4 days worth of rockets at most. The Tula and Rotenberg plants can't fulfill orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.  The raw materials they imported from Slovenia, Finland, and Germany have been cut off.  If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations because they have no money, weapons, or resources.  Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since 18 Feb.  The goal was to take Kyiv and install a puppet regime.  They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians to sow panic.  This is their trump card.  Russia's whole plan relies on panic-that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees.  They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed.  The Rusians are in shcok of the fierce resistance they have encountered.


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

This one off Twitter is good.   Can't fight a war on fumes.  lol


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497519061554630658


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## Archangel27 (Feb 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Apparently we asked Zelensky to evacuate.  He said naw, send ammo.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497428052988641281
> ...


This was posted as a quote on a CUB slide.


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## Archangel27 (Feb 26, 2022)

Queeg said:


> $20 billy per day. There are 3-4 days worth of rockets at most.



I know wars are expensive but an all out effort like this, damn that is one hell of a price tag.  Wasn't their foreign reserves at like $680 billion before this kicked off?


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Templar27A said:


> This was posted as a quote on a CUB slide.


Weird, wonder if we'll do more than put the quotes of brave men on CUB slides.

Zelensky: We will enter peace talks if they are genuine. 
Puty: Give Me Half your Country!
Zelensky: Hard Pass


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497565502377496576


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

Interesting development.  It seems to be still up, is Reuters spreading Russian misinformation?

Internet in Ukraine disrupted as Russian troops advance


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Interesting development.  It seems to be still up, is Reuters spreading Russian misinformation?
> 
> Internet in Ukraine disrupted as Russian troops advance


I think there was a disruption overnight due to a cyber attack, but I suppose Ukrainians have good cyber people.


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## Raksasa Kotor (Feb 26, 2022)

For those of you prone to "doomscrolling" (apparently the term du jour) the Instagram account realnewsnobullshit has consistently been 12-24 hours ahead of all of the news networks and is refreshingly devoid of, well, bullshit. Another decent account is northernprovisions.


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## Raksasa Kotor (Feb 26, 2022)

Cav people - talk to me about tracks on asphalt/concrete. If I recall correctly, if a tracked vehicle is going to be using road surfaces they have track pads installed to minimize damage to the road surface and increase traction - is that accurate?


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Raksasa Kotor said:


> Cav people - talk to me about tracks on asphalt/concrete. If I recall correctly, if a tracked vehicle is going to be using road surfaces they have track pads installed to minimize damage to the road surface and increase traction - is that accurate?



More like to minimize wear on the track, in my time with Tanks, Brads, 113s not a single track could be ordered without pads.  I don't think they exist in our supply chain.  Israeli Merkavas are on roads all the time on road marches without pads.  The biggest thing about minimizing wear on roads from a load perspective is what the road is rated for.  If it's a Heavy-Duty Road it can take a tank.  Medium Duty roads aren't rated for heavy shit, which is why you end up HMMTing tanks on trailers places.

That's my experience, but YMMV on schoolhouse spewing.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Apparently Anonymous chose a side: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497574730282541060


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## Raksasa Kotor (Feb 26, 2022)

Germany OKs weapons for Ukraine in major shift on military aid​Germany OKs weapons for Ukraine in major shift on military aid


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

I guess we're sending more troops to Latvia.


CBC News: NATO sending part of response force to shore up European allies threatened by invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-ukraine-russia-invasion-1.6364411


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## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

Raksasa Kotor said:


> For those of you prone to "doomscrolling" (apparently the term du jour) the Instagram account realnewsnobullshit has consistently been 12-24 hours ahead of all of the news networks and is refreshingly devoid of, well, bullshit. Another decent account is northernprovisions.



Viper1 shared the app LiveUAMap which also is way ahead and updating every 15m or so.


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## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

Turkey's Erdogan is telling Zelensky he'll deny Russian warships access to the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus. Not sure why the Black Sea Fleet would feel the need to send ships through those straights at a time like this...but it could pose more logistics problems for Putin.


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## Cookie_ (Feb 26, 2022)

Raksasa Kotor said:


> For those of you prone to "doomscrolling" (apparently the term du jour) the Instagram account realnewsnobullshit has consistently been 12-24 hours ahead of all of the news networks and is refreshingly devoid of, well, bullshit. Another decent account is northernprovisions.


The OAF_Nation instagram has been really good about documenting this as well. 

I've suspected for a few weeks that Putin's "we recognize the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories and will provide support" was probably what would happen, but the full scale invasion of Ukraine wasn't something I'd have put money on.

I also would have never imagined an invasion to happen with as poor logistical support as is being demonstrated by the Russians.  It's a good real world example to point at to my joes and remind them just how important support operations are to frontline troops.


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## Cartoonjunkies (Feb 26, 2022)

Russian transport aircraft shot down

Apparently the Russians tried to do some airborne insertions. Seems like it didn’t go too well for them. 

Makes me wonder how the morale of the Russian troops is doing if they’re doing as poorly as stuff like this leads me to believe. Especially if that IL-76 was fully packed. That’s a lot of guys.


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## Jaknight (Feb 26, 2022)

Not sure if entirely true but if so that is a lot men and equipment gone in just a few days of fighting. 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497472372055576577


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## Ooh-Rah (Feb 26, 2022)

deleted. Bad link.


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## Cookie_ (Feb 26, 2022)

Cartoonjunkies said:


> Russian transport aircraft shot down
> 
> Apparently the Russians tried to do some airborne insertions. Seems like it didn’t go too well for them.
> 
> Makes me wonder how the morale of the Russian troops is doing if they’re doing as poorly as stuff like this leads me to believe. Especially if that IL-76 was fully packed. That’s a lot of guys.



If these reports of Conscripts being forced to sign contracts is anywhere close to true, I imagine morale is currently through the toilet and into the sewer system.  

It really seems like Putin vastly underestimated Ukrainian troops resolve and current level of training and figured he could just send in a meat wave of young soldiers to take Kyiv. It's a brutal strategy, and I feel bad for the lower enlisted/younger Russian troops if that is the case. They're truly pawns in this fight.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Starting to wonder how inaccurate all those threat temps I wrote were...


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

2132 GMT. Kyiv is bracing for imminent aerial bombardment.


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## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Starting to wonder how inaccurate all those threat temps I wrote were...


It doesn't matter.  The decision-makers would have just ignored them, like they did our assessment of the Afghanistan pullout, or just not do anything about it, like our warnings about the Russian buildup along Ukraine's borders.


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## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

"I saw you on the news, loading your family onto a train, sending your wife and daughter to safety after a Russian air raid.

But you stayed.

I watched you say goodbye to your wife and little girl. Kneeling, you lovingly looked into your daughter’s eyes and then began to sob.

Overcome with emotion, you took a moment to get composed before embracing them one last time and bidding them farewell.

Then you pressed your splayed hand to the window to stay close to your wife and child for as long as possible until the train pulled away from the platform.

I could feel your desperation through the phone as you watched them go. The pain on your face was strong enough to be felt by everyone; I cried in return.

But, still, you stayed."

*link*


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## DA SWO (Feb 26, 2022)

I am sure the Ukraine kill claims are higher than actual Russian losses, BUT; Russia isn't releasing killed/destroyed claims.
That speaks volumes.

Wish we had sent some offensive aid, and that the Ukraine's would have laid sea mines down.


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## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I am sure the Ukraine kill claims are higher than actual Russian losses, BUT; Russia isn't releasing killed/destroyed claims.
> That speaks volumes.
> 
> Wish we had sent some *offensive aid,* and that the Ukraine's would have laid sea mines down.


 Didn't we send a bunch already?
U.S. shipment of 'lethal aid' reaches Ukraine amid Russia tensions


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## Chopstick (Feb 26, 2022)

Not trying to make light of what the Ukrainians are enduring by any means,  but this is so stinking true.


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## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

Elon Musk doing his part. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497701484003213317


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## Dame (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Didn't we send a bunch already?
> U.S. shipment of 'lethal aid' reaches Ukraine amid Russia tensions


Just in case the Ukrainian President told the U.S. State Dept "Um, noooo," when asked if he wanted help unassing the AO? You know. Like Putin expected/wanted?


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## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

With Russia disconnected from the SWIFT network Putin is going to turn start vibrating because now they’re messing with his access to his money LOL.


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## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Not sure if entirely true but if so that is a lot men and equipment gone in just a few days of fighting.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497472372055576577


Over the course of 21 years in Afghanistan we lost something like 2400 KIA and 20,000+ wounded. If those casualty figures are anything close to accurate, it's going to be a very bloody war for the Russians.


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## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

I'm looking for anything accurate but I've been seeing rumors that 5000 Russian troops rioted at the border, refusing to cross.  Not wanting to die.  If the talk of forced contract signing, is true; this could be as well.


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## AWP (Feb 26, 2022)

I want to believe the initial reports, however optimistic. Reality is those reports are often wrong, sometimes grossly overstated.

I’d tend to look at what cities are under Russian control as a decent barometer of who is winning. Time is not on Russia’s side though. Putin needed a quick victory and I don’t see that happening unless Ukrainian forces collapse like the Afghans.


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## pardus (Feb 26, 2022)

IMHO...

China's sanctions etc... are smoke and mirrors. They want things to get messy, for the US to get embroiled in a 2 way range with the Russkies, when that happens (or things just get out of control) China is going to pounce on Taiwan. It's the perfect situation for China. To complicate things, Japan has said it will fight to defend Taiwan (the USA has no agreement to defend Taiwan), then what does Kimbo Un do? Try to take out/on Japan and ROK?

I'm not an intel guy with insider knowledge so I'm quite surprised at how badly the Russians are doing, like this is super embarrassing for Vlad, armoured columns running out of fuel, entire convoys abandoned intact, no air supremacy, a massive propaganda fail.
What happend to the unbeatable Spetsnaz, the hard as nails Airborne and Naval Infantry, the masses of advanced weapons that would send the US Military reeling, let alone Ukraine's tiny Military? Vlady you naughty boy, have you been bullshitting us!? 

The Chechen commander was supposedly killed today which is awesome. 
I'm not buying the 5K Russian Soldier's mutiney until I see it from a reputable non Ukrainian source, but shit, I hope it's true. All of the Russians i've seen have had zero animus, in fact a cordial relationship with the Ukrainians so far, even buying food from them. 

Part of me think's Putin is brilliant and will release his evil plan, the full strength of his Military, his secret wonder weapons, but then again I remember reading some history books that mentioned that same thing about 70 years ago... 

I think it might be time for Finland to take back the land it lost in the Continuation War in 1945!


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 26, 2022)

I believe squat.shit until confirmed by 2 or more sources....


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

AWP said:


> I want to believe the initial reports, however optimistic. *Reality is those reports are often wrong, sometimes grossly overstated.*
> 
> I’d tend to look at what cities are under Russian control as a decent barometer of who is winning. Time is not on Russia’s side though. Putin needed a quick victory and I don’t see that happening unless Ukrainian forces collapse like the Afghans.


I read a headline yesterday that the 74th Motorcycle Brigade had been captured.

A whole BRIGADE?  Well gee, that's interesting.

I opened the article (on a site I'd never heard of before) and it was "a platoon" from the brigade.

OK, significantly smaller than a brigade, but that's still a notable number of troops.

Further in the article, a purported Ukrainian spokesman said he didn't know the number.

If it happened at all, it was probably two dudes from the scout platoon that turned left when they should have turned right and got balled up.

But yay, they captured a brigade!!


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 26, 2022)

One piece of social media I read said a Ukraine sniper killed over "3,000" Russians.  Maybe they forgot to move the decimal over a couple places....


----------



## pardus (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read a headline yesterday that the 74th Motorcycle Brigade had been captured.
> 
> A whole BRIGADE?  Well gee, that's interesting.
> 
> ...


So what you're saying is, a Brigade was captured? Got it!


----------



## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

Apparently some of the 1.5-billion in gear and weapon systems we’ve sent to Ukraine in the past—since the Russians took the Crimea—is being put to good use. The Javelins especially. Because these new pledges of arms from the US, Germany, France etc are only good if they get into the right hands before the Russians roll over them.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 26, 2022)

This would not be good but it wouldn't surprise me.

Putin prepares to use 'father of all bombs' as Ukraine fights advance


----------



## pardus (Feb 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This would not be good but it wouldn't surprise me.
> 
> Putin prepares to use 'father of all bombs' as Ukraine fights advance


That would be a great PR move for Ukraine. What damage is that bomb really going to do? 100-200-300m? at a cost of 16mil? PR if he drops it in a civi area? Bring it Vlad!


----------



## DA SWO (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Didn't we send a bunch already?
> U.S. shipment of 'lethal aid' reaches Ukraine amid Russia tensions


I view Stingers and Javelins as defensive.  I am talking MLRS, land based Harpoon type aid.

UK President waited too long for some defensive measures.


----------



## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This would not be good but it wouldn't surprise me.
> 
> Putin prepares to use 'father of all bombs' as Ukraine fights advance



The Russians love the blunt objects over precision, the more brutal the better. Why bother with finesse when you can obliterate? Nothing subtle about the way they make war. See Afghanistan, 79-89


----------



## pardus (Feb 26, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> UK President waited too long for some defensive measures.


What do you mean exactly? I'm not getting the meaning.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I view Stingers and Javelins as defensive.  I am talking MLRS, land based Harpoon type aid.
> 
> UK President waited too long for some defensive measures.


In what sense? They've been at this for months.  You know helps?  Stacked air support.


----------



## SpitfireV (Feb 26, 2022)

The thaw can't be too far away.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 26, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> The thaw can't be too far away.


Neither is sunflower-growing season ;)


----------



## pardus (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Neither is sunflower-growing season ;)


I know that is a big crop there but how will that affect things?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 26, 2022)

pardus said:


> I know that is a big crop there but how will that affect things?


Ukrainian woman offers seeds to Russian soldiers so 'sunflowers grow when they die' – video


----------



## Gunz (Feb 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ukrainian woman offers seeds to Russian soldiers so 'sunflowers grow when they die' – video



Once their buddies start getting blown up and the frustration hits the peak, brave old ladies like this will get a rifle butt in the face, or worse. These are Russians. They don’t have lawyers on their Six enforcing ROE


----------



## SpitfireV (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Neither is sunflower-growing season ;)


Ha!


----------



## Queeg (Feb 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read a headline yesterday that the 74th Motorcycle Brigade had been captured.
> 
> A whole BRIGADE?  Well gee, that's interesting.
> 
> ...





pardus said:


> IMHO...
> 
> China's sanctions etc... are smoke and mirrors. They want things to get messy, for the US to get embroiled in a 2 way range with the Russkies, when that happens (or things just get out of control) China is going to pounce on Taiwan. It's the perfect situation for China. To complicate things, Japan has said it will fight to defend Taiwan (the USA has no agreement to defend Taiwan), then what does Kimbo Un do? Try to take out/on Japan and ROK?
> 
> ...


Russia was supposed to be this EW super jamming boogeyman, able to DF you and obliterate your grid square faster that you can say “radio check” if you were dumb enough to key your mic. Where are they? Ran out of petrol en route?


----------



## Blizzard (Feb 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ukrainian woman offers seeds to Russian soldiers so 'sunflowers grow when they die' – video


When I saw that video, I thought it was powerful.  If an old lady walked up to me, handed me some sunflower seeds and said that to me, I'd find it pretty creepy. LOL.

A lot of misinformation floating around (the psy op game is strong) but, in terms of analysis, this thread by Gen Mark Hertling (ret.) is pretty good:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497035826139738125
The comments on poorly trained/inexperienced (most Russian troops reportedly 1 yr conscripts, poor NCO corps, etc) and incredibly poor logistics (overstretched supply lines, no gas, no food, etc) seem to be ring true based on recurring reports.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 27, 2022)

Ukraine's IO game is savage.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497871771466412039


----------



## Gunz (Feb 27, 2022)

Ukraine army retakes Kharkiv, expelling Russian troops: governor
https://liveuamap.com//en/2022/27-february-ukraine-army-retakes-kharkiv-expelling-russian


----------



## Chopstick (Feb 27, 2022)

I had not considered this aspect.     The Most Immediate Nuclear Danger in Ukraine Isn’t Chernobyl


> The most immediate nuclear danger, however, comes from Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already stated that “Russian occupation forces are trying to seize” the Chernobyl nuclear plant, site of the infamous 1986 accident, and footage purportedly shows Russian forces there. Various storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste are located nearby. However, the bigger risk comes from the potential for fighting around Ukraine’s four active nuclear power plants, which contain fifteen separate reactors and generated over half of the country’s electricity in 2020.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Feb 27, 2022)

According to my First Alert, Belarusian Special Forces are staging for an air assault on Kyiv, and Putin has ordered for Russian deterrence forces to transfer to a combat mode.


----------



## Archangel27 (Feb 27, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> According to my First Alert, Belarusian Special Forces are staging for an air assault on Kyiv, and Putin has ordered for Russian deterrence forces to transfer to a combat mode.



Seems like everyone but me already has their accounts set up on that   Anything else crazy that you're seeing?

Deterrence forces meaning nukes?


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 27, 2022)

In case anyone is planning a "vacation" in Ukraine.


----------



## Archangel27 (Feb 27, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> In case anyone is planning a "vacation" in Ukraine.
> 
> View attachment 38885



I've already got a number of "what are the penalties if I go AWOL to fight in Ukraine" questions by now.  I imagine there will be a line out the door of my office tomorrow.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Feb 27, 2022)

Templar27A said:


> Seems like everyone but me already has their accounts set up on that   Anything else crazy that you're seeing?
> 
> Deterrence forces meaning nukes?


Nothing too crazy. Ukrainian and Russian delegates are meeting near the Belarus border for talks.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 27, 2022)

It is the nuclear deterrence forces.


----------



## Raksasa Kotor (Feb 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read a headline yesterday that the 74th *Motorcycle* Brigade had been captured.



I wish _we_ had a motorcycle brigade.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 27, 2022)

So, the Spetznatz did not have a good night in the Kyiv ?  Is that true?


----------



## Gunz (Feb 27, 2022)

Sweden gets into the act…it’s Christmas for Zelensky if he can keep the Russians away from all the incoming gear. 

Sweden just announced it will deliver 5000 anti-armour rocket launchers, 5000 body armour kits, 5000 helmets, and 135,000 field rations to the Ukrainian armed forces
Sweden just announced it will deliver 5000 anti-armour rocket launchers, 5000 body armour kits, 5000 helmets, and 135,000 field rations to the Ukrainian armed forces Grästorp, Sweden - Ukraine Interactive map  - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


----------



## Gunz (Feb 27, 2022)

But how to get all the goods there? Russian warplanes are engaged in CAPs; NATO cannot provide air cover for military/charter flights without getting involved in the fight. The Black Sea fleet can control ports and interdict attempts by water. So what’s left? Covert ground transport through Poland? Slow, dangerous and limited.

Honestly, all this good shit might end up stagnating in Polish staging areas while Russia conquers and consolidates. The Ukrainians will have to hold on, protect supply routes and reception areas, keep up an effective logistics system for distribution amid Russian attacks and cyberwarfare.

I don’t know, man. Ukrainian defiance is inspiring. And the pledges of support are great. But the road to hell is paved with good intentions.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 27, 2022)

Gunz said:


> But how to get all the goods there? Russian warplanes are engaged in CAPs; NATO cannot provide air cover for military/charter flights without getting involved in the fight. The Black Sea fleet can control ports and interdict attempts by water. So what’s left? Covert ground transport through Poland? Slow, dangerous and limited.
> 
> Honestly, all this good shit might end up stagnating in Polish staging areas while Russia conquers and consolidates. The Ukrainians will have to hold on, protect supply routes and reception areas, keep up an effective logistics system for distribution amid Russian attacks and cyberwarfare.
> 
> I don’t know, man. Ukrainian defiance is inspiring. And the pledges of support are great. But the road is paved with good intentions.



Russia has air superiority, not supremacy.  Poland delivered massive shipments via ground on Friday.  Land Bridge to the west where there is limited Russian activity is where this will go, but once it crosses the border how do you get things to the front.  It seems that Ukraine is continuing to get airframes in the air and their ADA capabilities although damaged are still quite active.


----------



## The91Bravo (Feb 27, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This one off Twitter is good.   Can't fight a war on fumes.  lol
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497519061554630658


Also a reason all the Russian forces are getting lost is that local jurisdictions have been taking down all street signs and highway signs… Strong Work!


----------



## The91Bravo (Feb 27, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> If these reports of Conscripts being forced to sign contracts is anywhere close to true, I imagine morale is currently through the toilet and into the sewer system.
> 
> It really seems like Putin vastly underestimated Ukrainian troops resolve and current level of training and figured he could just send in a meat wave of young soldiers to take Kyiv. It's a brutal strategy, and I feel bad for the lower enlisted/younger Russian troops if that is the case. They're truly pawns in this fight.


It’s like the Russians and Germans in Stalingrad…. But with the roles reversed..


----------



## DA SWO (Feb 27, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> According to my First Alert, Belarusian Special Forces are staging for an air assault on Kyiv, and Putin has ordered for Russian deterrence forces to transfer to a combat mode.


Fear mongering. US and Russian land based systems went off alert in 1992.
The "special" mode means they are reactivating nuke comm links.


----------



## The91Bravo (Feb 27, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> In case anyone is planning a "vacation" in Ukraine.
> 
> View attachment 38885


Anyone with a DD-214
.
CIF for equipment issue @0430 lol


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 27, 2022)

Most of the “heroism” we are reading about right now is bullshit.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 27, 2022)

I read a short piece earlier that Turkey was considering excercising  their treaty right to restrict access to the Black Sea.  Have not seen corroboration.  If true, this is serious risk of an Article 5 issue if Russia decides it doesn’t want to be restricted.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read a short piece earlier that Turkey was considering excercising  their treaty right to restrict access to the Black Sea.  Have not seen corroboration.  If true, this is serious risk of an Article 5 issue if Russia decides it doesn’t want to be restricted.



Turkey Says War Exists in Black Sea, Allowing It to Block Russian Navy

Under the Montreux Convention of 1934, it states they can block Non-Black Sea Fleet Vessels.  I'm guessing Russia has to register the ships assigned to the Black Sea Fleet.  All other vessels can eff off.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 27, 2022)

Now I want a tank.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498079659220770817


----------



## pardus (Feb 27, 2022)

Some good news!


----------



## pardus (Feb 27, 2022)

Not so good news...


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 27, 2022)




----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 27, 2022)

This is a good thread on the situation.  Learned a bunch of things.  He's missing some things, but pretty solid: 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497993363076915204


----------



## pardus (Feb 27, 2022)

Ukraine is refusing to meet for peace talks in Belarus due to Belarus's role in the war, it has offered other locations such as Turkey, Poland etc...
Reasonable I think under the circumstances, though a good reason for the talks to not happen at this time.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Feb 27, 2022)

pardus said:


> Ukraine is refusing to meet for peace talks in Belarus due to Belarus's role in the war


Just saw this article regarding Belarus and their role….looks like they are going all in?

https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-belarus-to-join-russias-war-on-ukraine-within-hours/


----------



## Blizzard (Feb 27, 2022)

I really have to take many/most reports with a heavy grain of salt.  Why would Russia need Belarus to get involved? Like a number of things this far, it doesn't really make sense (they're approach is much different than actions they were involved with in Syria, seem to not be using their "best" technologies, etc.}.  There may be some reasonable explanations but it's just...strange.  Keep in mind, this offensive has only been underway for ~4 days. 

Very difficult to make an accurate assessment of things based on media reports.  Clearly, Russia has made some level of progress.  Similarly, Ukraine hasn't been completely steamrolled yet. 

The question/concern I have is, what/how does Putin's "exit" look like -- whether Ukraine falls or not.


----------



## pardus (Feb 27, 2022)




----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 27, 2022)

What is with the absurd COVID takes?  Don't they know this is over? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498129206600945665


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Feb 27, 2022)

From the “for what it’s worth” file…

I follow @alexplitsas .  He offers a well-sourced summary of the Ukraine situation.


----------



## Locksteady (Feb 27, 2022)

I will be happier if this doesn't happen, but I am a 'true believer' that Putin will do good on his word to deploy nukes at every conceivable target possible (including us) the point he feels that Russia and, by extension, he are beyond the point of recoverability as a non-democratic superpower worthy of respect by fear - even to harm of everyone around him if surrender is the only other option.

My larger concern is that he will conclude that ship has already sailed sooner than many anticipate, if it hasn't for him already.


----------



## Blizzard (Feb 27, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> I will be happier if this doesn't happen, but I am a 'true believer' that Putin will do good on his word to deploy nukes at every conceivable target possible (including us) the point he feels that Russia and, by extension, he are beyond the point of recoverability as a respectable, non-democratic superpower - even to harm of everyone around him if surrender is the only other option.
> 
> My larger concern is that very soon, if not already, he feels that ship has already sailed.


That's my concern as well.  Putin has seemingly misplayed this to the point he may have no "off ramp".  He may switch approach to a Russian insurgency but to what end? He's still weakened the Russian position in the world, even if he steps down.  That's incredibly important and personal to him.  

We'll need to stay tuned to see exactly how much the Russian people truly support him -- there are reportedly some demonstrations in Russia.  Will they grow and become more widespread?


----------



## SpitfireV (Feb 28, 2022)

I don't think he'll launch, and if he tries to I suspect his orders will get lost and or misheard. At least, I hope so. 

Re his support, it's anecdotally pretty low and has been for ages. My old flatmates were Russians and they said that he hasn't done anything to improve the country so many people dislike him.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 28, 2022)

Peace talks have begun. 

Zelensky warns next 24 hours will be "crucial" as Ukraine-Russia peace talks begin

Now this is funny, no matter who you are. 

Ukrainian fighters grease bullets against Chechens with pig fat

It's also interesting how Western media is now changing the narrative around the Azov Battalion. 

'Just Total Fiction': How Putin Is Using Nazi Propaganda to Defend Invasion of Ukraine

Facebook is reversing its ban on posts praising Ukraine's far-right Azov Battalion, report says


----------



## Queeg (Feb 28, 2022)

Before we get vaporized, I just want to say you can all lick deez nutz.

"Alexa, play 'Till We Meet Again.'"


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 28, 2022)

Just in case we get nuked, make sure you wear a mask and social distance in the bomb shelter.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498149606600978435


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

All of that training to fight the Krasnovians finally pays off for me.  ;)


----------



## Steve1839 (Feb 28, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> What is with the absurd COVID takes?  Don't they know this is over?


Well, Kerry already played the climate change card...


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 28, 2022)

Yes it's Buzzfeed...

A Team Of American And British Special Forces Veterans Are Preparing To Join Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 28, 2022)

And for those of you wanting to "vacation" in Ukraine. 

How to join International Legion to defend Ukraine - algorithm


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 28, 2022)

I have received a bunch of emails recruiting medical folks, some paying $1K-$2K/day (depending on quals and licensure).


----------



## AWP (Feb 28, 2022)

Time for the next gen AWP’s to earn their stripes.


----------



## Queeg (Feb 28, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Yes it's Buzzfeed...
> 
> A Team Of American And British Special Forces Veterans Are Preparing To Join Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia


"We're putting the band back together."


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

Yesterday I got a message from an officer who used to work from me when she was a captain.  She was on a plane to Europe to support... whatever it is we're doing there right now.  It was an interesting feeling being the one back in the rear when other people are heading out.  I felt anxious and uncertain in ways I never did when  I was the one doing the deploying.


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Yesterday I got a message from an officer who used to work from me when she was a captain.  She was on a plane to Europe to support... whatever it is we're doing there right now.  It was an interesting feeling being the one back in the rear when other people are heading out.  I felt anxious and uncertain in ways I never did when  I was the one doing the deploying.



It lessens over time but never really goes away.  It's who we are, it's part of our DNA.  We spend time being on the spear and now we are in a position of having to watch the spear-chucker toss that spear.  Sometimes hard to watch, and hard to not want to participate.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1007543336825390


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Yesterday I got a message from an officer who used to work from me when she was a captain.  She was on a plane to Europe to support... whatever it is we're doing there right now.  It was an interesting feeling being the one back in the rear when other people are heading out.  I felt anxious and uncertain in ways I never did when  I was the one doing the deploying.



I didn't even bring it up but my wife told me she knows I would go, if it wasn't for kid's.   She's seen in a few times in me with recent events.  It's hard to fight that urge.


----------



## Gunz (Feb 28, 2022)

Re nuke launch: never. This is textbook Cold War, page 146 paragraph 2, Brinksmanship 101. Having a bad day? Threaten nukes.



Marauder06 said:


> All of that training to fight the Krasnovians finally pays off for me.  ;)
> 
> View attachment 38899



Wouldn’t be surprised to see some upgraded T-55s or 62s chugging around Ukraine.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I didn't even bring it up but my wife told me she knows I would go, if it wasn't for kid's.   She's seen in a few times in me with recent events.  It's hard to fight that urge.


The other interesting feeling I had yesterday was the realization that I don't feel the slightest urge to go fight in Europe.  I don't know any Ukrainians, I have no direct financial interests in Ukraine, the closest I've ever been to Ukraine is the Republic of Georgia.  That's a change from how I felt about Afghanistan, Iraq, and even Kosovo (ended up not going to the latter).

While I feel enormous empathy for what the people of Ukraine are going through, after many years of fighting "wars of national liberation" for other people, and seeing how it all ended (esp. Afghanistan), I'm personally in no hurry to sign up for more.

I care about what's happening in Ukraine, but mainly because with our globalized economy and world system, what happens there could eventually have a very major impact on my family and my country.


----------



## Gunz (Feb 28, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I didn't even bring it up but my wife told me she knows I would go, if it wasn't for kid's.   She's seen in a few times in me with recent events.  It's hard to fight that urge.



I came this close to taking an NCO contract with the RLI in 1976 because I was still jonesing hard for the adrenalin fix; and was helping a former FBI guy with recruitment…out of the back room of a gun store in J’ville. But the pay was low and the political situation was vastly in favor of the black nationalists and it was beginning to look like another Lost Cause…

But…

It never goes away. I had to sit on my hands during the Falklands War when I was in the ANG; through Grenada, Just Cause, Desert Storm (when I was at CENTCOM news conferences every week), and throughout OEF/OIF (again going through the gates at MacDill AFB every other day), being so close to the military and yet not in it anymore but wanting to be.

It’s tough to sit on the bench, guys & girls. No matter how old you get. 😉


----------



## Grunt (Feb 28, 2022)

Yep...you simply can't take the "Warrior DNA" out of a Warrior.


----------



## RetPara (Feb 28, 2022)

Been asked a few times today if I was subject to Retiree Recall.  I aged out of that a couple of years ago.  Not really sure how I feel about it.  Then I was Intell... I can still run to the coffee pot.  I can still lift a full 30oz cup of coffee.  So I should be good to go.

I am really surprised people think this was serious.  No way in hell would I go back as MSG.  Contractor...  maybe...  Like many others I am a Retired War Horse merely pawing the ground in the pasture.

I've been posting a LOT about this on FaceBook for like two weeks now.  DM me and I send you to the the location.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

"Critical Geography Theory?"


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 28, 2022)

RetPara said:


> Been asked a few times today if I was subject to Retiree Recall.  I aged out of that a couple of years ago.  Not really sure how I feel about it.  Then I was Intell... I can still run to the coffee pot.  I can still lift a full 30oz cup of coffee.  So I should be good to go.
> 
> I am really surprised people think this was serious.  No way in hell would I go back as MSG.  Contractor...  maybe...  Like many others I am a Retired War Horse merely pawing the ground in the pasture.
> 
> I've been posting a LOT about this on FaceBook for like two weeks now.  DM me and I send you to the the location.


I have no interest in being recalled if it's to go man a range...which has been a few of the mobilization emails I've gotten over the past 6 months.  But nothing that isn't standard Reserve Officer Recruiting guys off the IRR, even last week.  We'll see what this week brings.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> "Critical Geography Theory?"


That chick is wild.  The worst thing about that platform is there are tons of people that need to sit this one out...and never do.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> That chick is wild.  The worst thing about that platform is there are tons of people that need to sit this one out...and never do.


There certainly have been a lot of bad takes on the Ukraine situation, including recent statements from President Trump   But I read a HuffPo piece earlier today with a headline that appeared to indicate that a "small" nuclear war would be a good way to curb global warming climate change.  The article was a little more nuanced than that--but not much.  I think that takes the cake for "worst hot take" over the last couple of days.


----------



## RackMaster (Feb 28, 2022)

Honestly, I wouldn't even consider going with the wife and kid's around.   I waited until I was leaving the Army before I got serious with anyone for a reason.   

Thankfully my injuries excluded me from the Supplemental Reserve List, so I shouldn't get a call; when Trudeau drags us into this further.
Canada is already fucked.  I know of a few people that are finally accepting injuries and having them documented.  The amount of early retirements or straight up releases in the past few year's, has crippled us. The losses in leadership with combat experience, is staggering.


----------



## pardus (Feb 28, 2022)

This seems to be the tone for this war from the Ukrainians and I love it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497836917647360000


----------



## Gunz (Feb 28, 2022)

My company wanted to send me to K2 in Uzbekistan in early 2002 on a military flight “for an undetermined duration.” And though it was a semi-safe civilian gig and would’ve been kind of cool, my boys were 6, 9, and 12 and my wife was working long hours. So I regretfully declined. 

But… I made all those little league games I would’ve missed.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

Gunz said:


> My company wanted to send me to K2 in Uzbekistan in early 2002 on a military flight “for an undetermined duration.” And though it was a semi-safe civilian gig and would’ve been kind of cool, my boys were 6, 9, and 12 and my wife was working long hours. So I regretfully declined.
> 
> But… I made all those little league games I would’ve missed.


Good call brother.  FAR more important.


----------



## Blizzard (Feb 28, 2022)

pardus said:


> This seems to be the tone for this war from the Ukrainians and I love it
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497836917647360000


I can imagine Zelensky's representatives traveling 4 hours round trip (or however long it was) to meet for "negotiations" with Russian representatives today, only to spend about 2 minutes looking around the room pointing at each one and saying, "Fuck you!", (point to the next) "Fuck you!", (point to the next), and "Fuck you!". Then turning around and walking out.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

Just announced:  "War Council" on Ukraine.  The below image is a picture, so here's the Teams link:
Join conversation


----------



## Gunz (Feb 28, 2022)

Ukraine has lifted visa restrictions for people wanting to join the fight against Russia. So there ya go. Or not.

But don’t. It ain’t gonna end well.

Save your strength for PRC vs Taiwan, NK vs ROK, coming soon to a theater near you.


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 28, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Ukraine has lifted a visa restrictions for people wanting to join the fight against Russia. So there ya go. Or not.
> 
> But don’t. It ain’t gonna end well.
> 
> Save your strength for PRC vs Taiwan, NK vs ROK, coming soon to a theater near you.



If on a scale on 1-100 in difficulty (for either side) if this is a, say, 50, Taiwan/PRC will be 100+.  200 miles long, almost 80, 90 wide, 15,000 square miles, 100+ miles of water between them.  Glad I'm not in plans and ops.

UK has greased the way for volunteers to go.

In other news Shell has pulled out of Russia, ceasing it's operations, and Maersk is considering not delivering to/from Russia or transporting Russian goods.


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)




----------



## JedisonsDad (Feb 28, 2022)

Ukrainian sailor sinks Russian boss’s $7.7 million luxury superyacht


----------



## SpitfireV (Feb 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> If on a scale on 1-100 in difficulty (for either side) if this is a, say, 50, Taiwan/PRC will be 100+.  200 miles long, almost 80, 90 wide, 15,000 square miles, 100+ miles of water between them.  Glad I'm not in plans and ops.
> 
> UK has greased the way for volunteers to go.
> 
> In other news Shell has pulled out of Russia, ceasing it's operations, and Maersk is considering not delivering to/from Russia or transporting Russian goods.



That difficulty and those details are the reason I don't think China is going to use this as a cover for an invasion because of the amount of equipment and men that will need to be assembled- and that would be seen by all sorts of people, govt and NGO, very quickly. That's not to say a blockade couldn't happen to choke them.


----------



## CQB (Feb 28, 2022)

So if Ukraine joins NATO now, does that automatically trigger Article 5?


----------



## Marauder06 (Feb 28, 2022)

CQB said:


> So if Ukraine joins NATO now, does that automatically trigger Article 5?



I don't think that's the way NATO membership works.  IIRC you have to have uncontested control of your territory, plus you have to get voted in... which would trigger Art 5 and Europe clearly isn't ready for that.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 28, 2022)

FIFA and World Rugby Suspend Russian Federations. 

World Rugby confirms sporting sanctions for Russia and Belarus | World Rugby

FIFA/UEFA suspend Russian clubs and national teams from all competitions


----------



## CQB (Feb 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I don't think that's the way NATO membership works.  IIRC you have to have uncontested control of your territory, plus you have to get voted in... which would trigger Art 5 and Europe clearly isn't ready for that.


Ok cheers.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 1, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Yesterday I got a message from an officer who used to work from me when she was a captain.  She was on a plane to Europe to support... whatever it is we're doing there right now.  It was an interesting feeling being the one back in the rear when other people are heading out.  I felt anxious and uncertain in ways I never did when  I was the one doing the deploying.



Don't worry too much.  She will be fine.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 1, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Ukrainian sailor sinks Russian boss’s $7.7 million luxury superyacht



I hope that boat-owning, arms-dealing tycoon isn't the one I get my good Russian steel-case ammo from.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 1, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I hope that boat-owning, arms-dealing tycoon isn't the one I get my good Russian steel-case ammo from.



I think the prices of Russian ammo is going to skyrocket as it's not imported any more.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 1, 2022)

An assessment of Russia's campaign, from the Institute for the Study of War.


----------



## pardus (Mar 1, 2022)

As Devil Doc said…

 Consider the source but…


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 1, 2022)

The reported losses seem... extreme to me.  Pardus what do you think?


----------



## Ranger Psych (Mar 1, 2022)

if those numbers are right, then they've like lost, what... the Entire Iraq war/occupation's worth of manpower/material losses, in like 2-3 days?

I mean, I would LOVE for that to be right on a geopolitical level, because then that means that Ching su yong over in north korea (or whatever his damn name is) is higher on the adversarial list, save numbers.

Seeing the amount of chucklefuckery that is obvious with regards to all the first person published videos of disabled vehicles due to stupidity, etc?

I'd love to hear the big bad bear spent too much time on it's ass than in the gym.


----------



## pardus (Mar 1, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> The reported losses seem... extreme to me.  Pardus what do you think?


Yeah I think there’s  a touch of optimism in there lol 
It is a fairly conventional conflict so far, which will include losses significantly higher than what we’ve experienced in the GWOT, but one of Ukraine’s biggest weapons right now is PR, so their propaganda machine is working overtime and that must be taken into account. My .02c ✌️


----------



## pardus (Mar 1, 2022)

Login • Instagram


Ugh I’m having trouble doing this on my phone. It’s a video of 30 rotary wings coming in from Belarus. 
Putin is yet to really squeeze Ukraine, it will hurt when he does. Electricity and gas for heating seems to be intact so far, life is really going to suck when that is cut off…


----------



## Ranger Psych (Mar 1, 2022)

I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what, 
about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving.  I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.

Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning. 

I mean, I like rooting for an underdog and Ukraine has that in spades anyway. I genuinely don't understand the mindset that fueled this whole shitshow... at least our own shitshow started off with us getting suckerpunched. Of course one of our wild swings hit a neighbor and got us into a 2 for one fight down the line, yadda yadda..... but this is just plain wtf.

Putin needs someone to hook him up with some polonium or something.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 1, 2022)

Ranger Psych said:


> I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what, View attachment 38945
> about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving.  I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.
> 
> Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning.
> ...



I dig ricin, but yeah, polonium works fine, too.

I have also been amazed and how myopically forward-looking AND blind in hindsight we've been.  When this started and people started clutching their pearls I was asking, "are you really that surprised?", and often the answer was 'yes'.  What in the hell have you been doing for the, oh, I don't know, past 30 years?  20?  10?  Not paying attention to anything past CNN or Fox News.

This also goes for our friends in the intelligence community, those guys who just swore that the Red Menace of the 50s-80s were both large in number and so technologically advanced and we found out neither was really true, and have fallen in the exact same trap today.  What's that axiom about the definition of insanity?  Yeahhhhh.......


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 1, 2022)

So a couple of things that's going on.  There's a division sized column approaching Kyiv on a road out of Belarus.  Putin is committing the second echelon after getting bogged down.  Hopefully some javelins and Bayraktar TB2's can be deployed to cause some havoc. That long of a column without air supremacy is ripe to getting hit. Hopefuly UKRA has some forces to maneuver to harass it. 

I just watched the French PM's speech in Parliament this morning, basically what occurred almost never happens in French Parliament.  There were three standing ovations for the Ukrainian people.  The Ukrainian Ambassador to France was invited in attendance as a VIP.  It was effectively a war speech.  He did stress diplomacy in it and direct messaging to the Russian people.  BUT, my gut tells me the longer this goes on the higher chance of it going kinetic with NATO forces increases significantly.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 1, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So a couple of things that's going on.  There's a division sized column approaching Kyiv on a road out of Belarus.  Putin is committing the second echelon after getting bogged down.  Hopefully some javelins and Bayraktar TB2's can be deployed to cause some havoc. That long of a column without air supremacy is ripe to getting hit. Hopefuly UKRA has some forces to maneuver to harass it.
> 
> I just watched the French PM's speech in Parliament this morning, basically what occurred almost never happens in French Parliament.  There were three standing ovations for the Ukrainian people.  The Ukrainian Ambassador to France was invited in attendance as a VIP.  It was effectively a war speech.  He did stress diplomacy in it and direct messaging to the Russian people.  BUT, my gut tells me the longer this goes on the higher chance of it going kinetic with NATO forces increases significantly.



France has come out as bellicose as they ever have.  They are frosty, and in many ways leading Europe.

RE: the column, I understand that Russia owns Anatov Airport, which can support the column.  Now, drone strikes....


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 1, 2022)

Ranger Psych said:


> I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what, View attachment 38945
> about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving.  I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.
> 
> Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning.
> ...




Tactical Road Marches are not thunder runs, those things were kinda lucky when you think about it.  He actually tried to do a bunch of "Thunder Runs" and believed his own bullshit that Ukrainian people would take them with open arms.  And then they started getting rockets to the dome.


pardus said:


> As Devil Doc said…
> View attachment 38942
> Consider the source but…
> View attachment 38943



Based on what we've seen with how bogged down the advance has gotten and the lack of protection log convoys have had, the number of fuel trucks hit seems woefully low.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 1, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Tactical Road Marches are not thunder runs, those things were kinda lucky when you think about it.  He actually tried to do a bunch of "Thunder Runs" and believed his own bullshit that Ukrainian people would take them with open arms.  And then they started getting rockets to the dome.



And he outran his log train.  I mean, that's never happened in the history of war /sarc.....


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 1, 2022)




----------



## Ooh-Rah (Mar 1, 2022)




----------



## Gunz (Mar 1, 2022)

If you're going to Ukraine to fight you have to start at the Ukrainian embassy. You can email them to get the process started. Then you get your documents in order (Proof of military or law enforcement service, yada yada.)

Then you have to go into the embassy for an interview with your paperwork. You speak to the Defense Attache. If he thinks you're the real deal, he'll give you an application for enlistment. Voluntary service on a contract basis in the Territorial Defense for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You'll probably end up in the Georgian Legion. (I think it's for 3 years).

If that goes well, they'll give you instructions on how to get there and what to bring. If you have your own gear that's great...helmet, body armor, belts, vests, all that tacticool shit that's been collecting dust in your closet. Then they'll give you what assistance you need, who to contact, etc.

Bring your own cigs.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 1, 2022)

FOAB's?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498736235145273353


----------



## Ranger Psych (Mar 1, 2022)

Miscellanea: Understanding the War in Ukraine

Anyone care to share their thoughts on this?


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 1, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> FOAB's?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498736235145273353


Ammo dump?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 1, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> FOAB's?



Yeah, ammo dump, air-launched kalibr cruise or…fucking huge bomb.




Ranger Psych said:


> Miscellanea: Understanding the War in Ukraine
> 
> Anyone care to share their thoughts on this?



I agree that this was planned way in advance and that negotiations were pointless. I agree that since every country’s economy is inextricably interconnected in the web of the Global Economy, that sanctions can hurt even the countries that impose them.

I also agree the Ukraine has traditionally been a fiercely independent region of the Empire and the Soviet state since the days of the Cossacks, and has never really been a voluntary heart and soul part of Russia.

I also agree that this will not become a nuclear exchange between superpowers.


----------



## Dame (Mar 1, 2022)

Just FYI... If any of you old farts go without taking my better half, I will hunt you down. 😂


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 1, 2022)

Sadly, this may represent the full depth of her understanding:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498746249591373831


----------



## Gunz (Mar 1, 2022)

Dame said:


> Just FYI... If any of you old farts go without taking my better half, I will hunt you down. 😂



I would be honored to go with the Major. I’d even go with Pardus if he promised to leave the sheep alone.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 1, 2022)

Us old farts need to go to give some rank and experience. I have been reading about all the volunteers from the US and Canada that are going with no military or combat experience. They are being assigned to the International Regiment. Wonder how many senior NCOs and officers from the US and Canada that wear beards will be in those positions.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 1, 2022)

It appears the Ukrainian figures on Russia's losses is sort of accurate.  This guy is attempting to document those losses independently. 

Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 1, 2022)

This is friggin' awesome. I need to start stockpiling truckloads of tape. 🤣

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498688774640914433


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 1, 2022)

Dame said:


> Just FYI... If any of you old farts go without taking my better half, I will hunt you down. 😂


Well, I assure you it won't be me.  At least not willingly.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 1, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Sadly, this may represent the full depth of her understanding:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498746249591373831



I read a story about that earlier and listened to it in the posted link.  I'm not particularly a fan of the Vice President, but given the context, I'm not upset about the way she broke it down.  I mean, at the very least it was 100% accurate, unlike almost everything else coming out about the war in Ukraine right now.


----------



## pardus (Mar 1, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read a story about that earlier and listened to it in the posted link.  I'm not particularly a fan of the Vice President, but given the context, I'm not upset about the way she broke it down.  I mean, at the very least it was 100% accurate, unlike almost everything else coming out about the war in Ukraine right now.


I think she's also being politically correct to the point of being racist, assuming that a certain population are so ignorant that it needs to be broken down Barney style. Has she used the same framing to other audiences?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> I think she's also being politically correct to the point of being racist, assuming that a certain population are so ignorant that it needs to be broken down Barney style. Has she used the same framing to other audiences?



Well she used to keep people in prison past their sentences when she was AG of California, so I doubt she cares for the people who elected her.


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## pardus (Mar 1, 2022)

An interesting take from someone with an accent...


----------



## Dame (Mar 2, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Well, I assure you it won't be me.  At least not willingly.


Not fer nuthin', Sir, but you soooo ain't an old fart.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 2, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Us old farts need to go to give some rank and experience. I have been reading about all the volunteers from the US and Canada that are going with no military or combat experience. They are being assigned to the International Regiment. Wonder how many senior NCOs and officers from the US and Canada that wear beards will be in those positions.



Ultimately that is my concern.  This will turn into war tourism or something for all the gear hoarders or wannabe militiamen in Reddit or /k/ to finally serve in a way that fits their fantasies.  I hope that the Ukrainians are able to do some screening to ensure that they are getting legit people.


----------



## Dame (Mar 2, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Ultimately that is my concern.  This will turn into war tourism or something for all the gear hoarders or wannabe militiamen in Reddit or /k/ to finally serve in a way that fits their fantasies.  I hope that the Ukrainians are able to do some screening to ensure that they are getting legit people.


Here's to hoping the Ukranians make short work of the Russians so it doesn't get to having to use them.


----------



## AWP (Mar 2, 2022)

I hope those clowns go over there and get merked out. Big boy rules. All of the high speed, Gucci, pseudo-operator gear in the world can’t save stupid. If they want to go over, I hope they are treated like the clowns they are. Idiots, children playing adult games.


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 2, 2022)

pardus said:


> I think she's also being politically correct to the point of being racist, assuming that a certain population are so ignorant that it needs to be broken down Barney style.


The host specifically asked her to "break it down in layman's terms for people who don't understand what's going on".

Where are you picking up racism in her response?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 2, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Ultimately that is my concern.  This will turn into war tourism or something for all the gear hoarders or wannabe militiamen in Reddit or /k/ to finally serve in a way that fits their fantasies.  *I hope that the Ukrainians are able to do some screening to ensure that they are getting legit people.*



Good question. Desperate times lead to desperate measures, often including lowering the bar for enlistees. If you need cannon fodder, just about anybody will do.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 2, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> The host specifically asked her to "break it down in layman's terms for people who don't understand what's going on".



Yeah, that's my understanding too.  It's another example of the media taking something out of context and blowing it up.  Unfortunately she also has a habit of distracting mannerisms (cackling when she's nervous) and saying things people think are silly, so this just adds to it.


----------



## AWP (Mar 2, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Yeah, that's my understanding too.  It's another example of the media taking something out of context and blowing it up.  Unfortunately she also has a habit of distracting mannerisms (cackling when she's nervous) and saying things people think are silly, so this just adds to it.



She's dug such a deep hole over the years with her..."less than intelligent" responses and behavior. She's made herself an easy target for spicy out-of-context soundbites that are unfavorable to her.

Make no mistake, I cannot stand the woman on so many levels Qbert would tire of jumping between them, but everyone deserves a fair shake. Besides, give her 24 hours and she'll say something legitimately stupid.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 2, 2022)




----------



## Grunt (Mar 2, 2022)

I seriously have no issues with all the basement gamers going over there. After all, they think they are commandos - so, go commando and reap your rewards.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 2, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Ultimately that is my concern.  This will turn into war tourism or something for all the gear hoarders or wannabe militiamen in Reddit or /k/ to finally serve in a way that fits their fantasies.  I hope that the Ukrainians are able to do some screening to ensure that they are getting legit people.


My mention of Senior NCOs and Officers with beards was another way of saying that our government's special operators might be used to hold these positions. When you are Regiment size you are going to need high ranking and experienced personnel to not only be commanders but staff personnel from Regiment down to Bn and companies. I do not believe the Ukrainians will be taking individuals away from their own units to man an International Regiment. Plenty of privates and lower ranking, former military personnel volunteering but cannot see that many E-7s and above volunteering. Shall we say that we are not having troops on the ground when we are.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 2, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> My mention of Senior NCOs and Officers with beards was another way of saying that our government's special operators might be used to hold these positions. When you are Regiment size you are going to need high ranking and experienced personnel to not only be commanders but staff personnel from Regiment down to Bn and companies. I do not believe the Ukrainians will be taking individuals away from their own units to man an International Regiment. Plenty of privates and lower ranking, former military personnel volunteering but cannot see that many E-7s and above volunteering. Shall we say that we are not having troops on the ground when we are.



I know there are some former Canuck Senior NCO's with beards, already there.  But not enough to make a huge difference.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 2, 2022)

Seems to me Putin is just creating fertile ground for another insurgency that's going to drain Russian lives, money and resolve for years to come. Like Afghanistan. Surely he must've realized this going into it.

*Do the benefits of this adventure make it worth fighting another long counter-insurgency?* Or is his ego so big that he feels confidant he'll be able to keep any resistance contained or reduced to manageable levels? For years?


----------



## Grunt (Mar 2, 2022)

I seriously think that Putin wants his legacy to be that he brought back the USSR of old. He has nothing else to offer. I don’t necessarily think he cares one bit about his people.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 2, 2022)

Grunt said:


> I seriously think that Putin wants his legacy to be that he brought back the USSR of old. He has nothing else to offer. I don’t necessarily think he cares one bit about his people.



I think he's looking further back to the Imperial Russia.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 2, 2022)

Hey look...the UN did something useful.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499087708039397386


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 2, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Mar 2, 2022)




----------



## Gunz (Mar 2, 2022)

Grunt said:


> I seriously think that Putin wants his legacy to be that he brought back the USSR of old. He has nothing else to offer. I don’t necessarily think he cares one bit about his people.





RackMaster said:


> I think he's looking further back to the Imperial Russia.




Well he ain't gonna get it. This is gonna be the downfall of Putin's Russia. Because besides sanctions, there's a shitload of countries who will probably be willing to subsidize a Ukrainian insurgency. His economy will tank, the casualty lists will grow and I think eventually his own people will get rid of his ass.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Well he ain't gonna get it. This is gonna be the downfall of Putin's Russia. Because besides sanctions, there's a shitload of countries who will probably be willing to subsidize a Ukrainian insurgency. His economy will tank, the casualty lists will grow and I think eventually his own people will get rid of his ass.


I am in total agreement...however, that's his mindset for what it's worth and I feel it will be his downfall as well.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 2, 2022)

Watching all this play out, I am wondering why the UN is still in operation. They voted to condemn Russia, but all the votes and sanctions are not going to change Putin's mind. So, one country after another will fall to Russia, and because they are not NATO or EU, nothing will be done. After it is all over then things will return back to normal, and we will have a Cold War.

This reminds me of something my son told me the other day. He said it is like a Loan Shark going into a church during services and beating up the pastor and no one stopping him. The reason - They all owe the Loan Shark.


----------



## Sigaba (Mar 2, 2022)

pardus said:


> I think she's also being politically correct to the point of being racist, assuming that a certain population are so ignorant that it needs to be broken down Barney style. Has she used the same framing to other audiences?



Many Americans do not center their lives around Europe, international affairs, or war.  I think Vice President Harris understands that people have different frames of reference and answered the question as asked in the allotted time.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 2, 2022)

Anyone realize that Ukraine is a charter member of the UN and still a member. Yet the UN cannot help one of their own or will not..


----------



## pardus (Mar 2, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> The host specifically asked her to "break it down in layman's terms for people who don't understand what's going on".
> 
> Where are you picking up racism in her response?


Sigh... OK.

KH "Yes my people are dumb, so let me explain..."

She was not putting that in layman's terms, she was talking to a kindergarten audience. 'The big mean one, hit the little one, that's bad. M'Kay?'

Have you looked at The Morning Hustle? Do you realize who the audience overwhelmingly is, and more importantly who the show is targeted at?
Think about it.


----------



## pardus (Mar 2, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Anyone realize that Ukraine is a charter member of the UN and still a member. Yet the UN cannot help one of their own or will not..


Hey hey, slow down! That would require action, and money and...


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 2, 2022)

Russia’s secret documents: war in Ukraine was to last 15 days


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 2, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Russia’s secret documents: war in Ukraine was to last 15 days


I read that earlier. Guess they have to put on an extension since they are bogged down on the road.


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Sigh... OK.
> 
> KH "Yes my people are dumb, so let me explain..."
> 
> ...



We'll have to agree to disagree on whether there's a functional distinction between "simple language that anyone can understand" and adequately explaining something to what you call a "kindergarten audience".

We should also probably discontinue the segue at this point since it is veering more and more off-topic.



Jaknight said:


> Russia’s secret documents: war in Ukraine was to last 15 days





LimaPanther said:


> I read that earlier. Guess they have to put on an extension since they are bogged down on the road.



An extension would be optimal, assuming Putin permits himself the humility to accept anything less than success within that timeline instead of accelerating it and ultimately taking anyone else conceivable down with him on the sinking Putinic.


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 3, 2022)

Edit to the last post:  

The first line should finish as, "adequately explaining something to a kindergarten audience".

I realize you were neither calling them that nor saying she called them that, but rather suggesting that she spoke to them as if they were that.  My phrasing was inaccurate and this is the correction to it.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Anyone realize that Ukraine is a charter member of the UN and still a member. Yet the UN cannot help one of their own or will not..


I think there’s a Chappelle’s Show sketch about that ;)


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 3, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> My mention of Senior NCOs and Officers with beards was another way of saying that our government's special operators might be used to hold these positions. When you are Regiment size you are going to need high ranking and experienced personnel to not only be commanders but staff personnel from Regiment down to Bn and companies. I do not believe the Ukrainians will be taking individuals away from their own units to man an International Regiment. Plenty of privates and lower ranking, former military personnel volunteering but cannot see that many E-7s and above volunteering. Shall we say that we are not having troops on the ground when we are.



I think those options are actively being discussed in Congress, judging from the desire to do more to help out.  However, I just am very concerned about people taking the wrong idea about what this is going to mean.

Completely agree that there is a lot we can be doing to help in a deniable way and that the NCO corps there needs to be strong.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 3, 2022)

Top Russian general killed by Ukrainian sniper
This must be a huge blow to their morale losing such a high ranking officer


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Watching all this play out, I am wondering why the UN is still in operation. They voted to condemn Russia, but all the votes and sanctions are not going to change Putin's mind. So, one country after another will fall to Russia, and because they are not NATO or EU, nothing will be done. After it is all over then things will return back to normal, and we will have a Cold War.
> 
> This reminds me of something my son told me the other day. He said it is like a Loan Shark going into a church during services and beating up the pastor and no one stopping him. The reason - They all owe the Loan Shark.



International institutions like the UN exist because powerful nations--the only real power in the international system--find them useful.  But at about 3:05 of the following video, we see the limits of the UN and "soft power."  ;)


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Russia’s secret documents: war in Ukraine was to last 15 days



If there's a post-occupation insurgency they'll be lucky if it lasts 15 years.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 3, 2022)

Most people who have had dealings with the UN will absolutely speak up that it's an awful organization, a cabal, of self-interest and good-old-boy back slapping.  It needs to burn to the ground, and the sub organizations that actually do any good saved and supported as such (i.e., WHO, UNICEF, etc.).

RE: Ukraine, man, the wheels fell off of that D-day +3.  No wonder Putin has gone lunatic.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2022)

US is still buying 600,000 Barrels per day from Russia. 

If we cut that off and Europe stops their shit this ends rapidly.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> US is still buying 600,000 Barrels per day from Russia.
> 
> If we cut that off and Europe stops their shit this ends rapidly.


And raise gas prices in an election year?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> And raise gas prices in an election year?


Bro, he already raised it with his policies. Normal gas price for me this time of year? Sure 2.25. But it's 3.50. And he already told us we had to "sacrifice". But we have plenty of wells that are uncapped that can come online if he ends a bunch of stupid policies and changes his rhetoric. 

Build Back Better needed 500B for Nuclear Power Plant investment.


----------



## pardus (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> And raise gas prices in an election year?


Because they are low now right? 
Biden screwed the US when he took us away from energy independence.


----------



## AWP (Mar 3, 2022)

Gunz said:


> If there's a post-occupation insurgency they'll be lucky if it lasts 15 years.



Considering their “intervention” in Afghanistan was one big war crime, I can’t imagine the Ukraine will go well for the Russians. Right now there are civilians, in broad daylight, tossing Molotov’s at tanks. An insurgency will bleed the Russians dry. We can make Javelins faster than Russia can build tanks.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Bro, he already raised it with his policies. Normal gas price for me this time of year? Sure 2.25. But it's 3.50. And he already told us we had to "sacrifice". But we have plenty of wells that are uncapped that can come online if he ends a bunch of stupid policies and changes his rhetoric.
> 
> Build Back Better needed 500B for Nuclear Power Plant investment.



In my area gas prices have gone up .40 cents in 2 days.

Of all the things I despise about Biden, near the top of the list is his green-at-all-costs-screw-energy-independence policies.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Because they are low now right?
> Biden screwed the US when he took us away from energy independence.


I agree with you 100% But I wouldn’t be surprised that the thought has crossed their mind


ThunderHorse said:


> Bro, he already raised it with his policies. Normal gas price for me this time of year? Sure 2.25. But it's 3.50. And he already told us we had to "sacrifice". But we have plenty of wells that are uncapped that can come online if he ends a bunch of stupid policies and changes his rhetoric.
> 
> Build Back Better needed 500B for Nuclear Power Plant investment.


Your right. I was just trying to be sarcastic with the comment.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> In my area gas prices have gone up .40 cents in 2 days.
> 
> Of all the things I despise about Biden, near the top of the list is his green-at-all-costs-screw-energy-independence policies.


I am feeling your pain here too my friend. The station near my house went up .30 cents a gallon last night.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2022)

AWP said:


> Considering their “intervention” in Afghanistan was one big war crime, I can’t imagine the Ukraine will go well for the Russians. Right now there are civilians, in broad daylight, tossing Molotov’s at tanks. An insurgency will bleed the Russians dry. We can make Javelins faster than Russia can build tanks.


It's crazy.  Like you said, people are driving right up to tanks with molotovs in the middle of the day...or apparently even farm tractors and towing tanks away. 

There are a lot of head scratchers with this campaign so far.

As just one example, it's tough to imagine a reportedly 40-mile long convoy -- in a country they border by land, mind you -- stalled out for, what, 3+ days now?  Are their loggies really so bad they can't figure out how to get this done?  Certain dudes are drooling all over themselves over stuff like this.  They write songs about it:
"When I saw me close to 69 trucks parked in a row
I knew I shouldn't do it, but I just could not say no
So, I called up twenty mike-mike and I rolled in for the pass
Knowing my commander, he was going to chew my ass"

At the same time, the Ukrainians apparently haven't done anything about it either.

Russian Air?  Maybe it's there but just not visible and that's what's allowing to the convoy to still exist?

With all the misinformation out there, who knows what's really happening but so much of it just seems odd.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 3, 2022)

Ukraine war: Putin says ‘worst is to come’ as Kyiv rejects Russia conditions

So Putin wants the whole thing not surprised


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

Grunt said:


> I am feeling your pain here too my friend. The station near my house went up .30 cents a gallon last night.



$4.19 this morning for diesel. Half a tank for my old flatbed truck cost me $90. When gas prices go up, the cost of everything goes up. Yeah, fuck this ridiculous push for electric cars.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Ukraine war: Putin says ‘worst is to come’ as Kyiv rejects Russia conditions
> 
> So Putin wants the whole thing not surprised



He'll get everything he wants and a whole shitload more that he doesn't want.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 3, 2022)

Gunz said:


> He'll get everything he wants and a whole lot more.


Unconditional surrender….


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> It's crazy.  Like you said, people are driving right up to tanks with molotovs in the middle of the day...or apparently even farm tractors and towing tanks away.
> 
> There are a lot of head scratchers with this campaign so far.
> 
> ...


First of all, love the proposed song lyrics.

Also, I wonder if those columns are actually stalled out, or if they're simply staging on the roads in advance of forward movement?  I'm not tracking the situation closely so I don't know.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 3, 2022)

One thing I know for certain is that none of them are going Genghis Khan on the enemy….


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> First of all, love the proposed song lyrics.
> 
> Also, I wonder if those columns are actually stalled out, or if they're simply staging on the roads in advance of forward movement?  I'm not tracking the situation closely so I don't know.



Apparently instead of attacking the point ends of these columns, the Ukrainian Army went after the log in the rear...which is why the "fuel truck" count is so high.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

It is very interesting.  If they are in fact stopped their due to logistics, why?  I mean I know logistics are hard, but if you control the air and the roads, and you've had literally months to build up and stock pile supplies, why is it hard now?  Do they really suck so bad at this, or are they being degraded/intercepted/interdicted somehow?

And if Russia doesn't control the air, why isn't Ukraine going all "highway of death" on the convoys?  And if the air is contested and we know literally exactly where these convoys are--big fat targets stuck for days--why isn't Ukraine massing forces on the ground to get after them?


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 3, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> It is very interesting.  If they are in fact stopped their due to logistics, why?  I mean I know logistics are hard, but if you control the air and the roads, and you've had literally months to build up and stock pile supplies, why is it hard now?  Do they really suck so bad at this, or are they being degraded/intercepted/interdicted somehow?
> 
> And if Russia doesn't control the air, why isn't Ukraine going all "highway of death" on the convoys?  And if the air is contested and we know literally exactly where these convoys are--big fat targets stuck for days--why isn't Ukraine massing forces on the ground to get after them?



I'm pretty sure there have been issues with a log train before...Patton, G Khan, Alex the Great, Napoleon, and 1st MARDIV in Iraq.  In these cases they outran the log train, went further faster than the log train could keep up.  You know this, just looking at it with the question of, if history has shown us these case studies, what happened to them?  They could/should have anticipated and prepared for an eventuality.  Kinda same question you have.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I'm pretty sure there have been issues with a log train before...Patton, G Khan, Alex the Great, Napoleon, and 1st MARDIV in Iraq.  In these cases they outran the log train, went further faster than the log train could keep up.  You know this, just looking at it with the question of, if history has shown us these case studies, what happened to them?  They could/should have anticipated and prepared for an eventuality.  Kinda same question you have.


The odd part is that they seemingly shouldn't be outrunning anything; the distance from Kiev to the Russia border is ~230 miles.  They're something like 20 miles outside Kiev with a 40 mile train...for 3+ days. 

If this video and translation is true, maybe it explains some of the problem but it raises probably that many more questions:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499352556300079109


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 3, 2022)

Could be they used up just about everything during the 30 day exercise and figured they would hop over the border and take the capital in a few days.  They didn't expect the resistance they got, thus the long line that was to roll in. I agree on where is the air power. It would only take a few planes and a short run. And where is Russia's air force to protect the convoy? I'm not hearing of any dog fights either.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I'm pretty sure there have been issues with a log train before...Patton, G Khan, Alex the Great, Napoleon, and 1st MARDIV in Iraq.  In these cases they outran the log train, went further faster than the log train could keep up.  You know this, just looking at it with the question of, if history has shown us these case studies, what happened to them?  They could/should have anticipated and prepared for an eventuality.  Kinda same question you have.


Just another follow up, in looking back, I guess it took ~2 weeks to get from Kuwaiti border to Baghdad in '03 -- that's about 350 miles. Large forces don't move fast.  So, maybe it's like @Marauder06 suggests, maybe they're staging?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

Just in case America has to get involved in a land war in Europe, the United States Marine Corps would like you to know that—while we’d love to help out—we gave all our tanks to the Army.

Thank you.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 3, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Just in case America has to get involved in a land war in Europe, the United States Marine Corps would like you to know that—while we’d love to help out—we gave all our tanks to the Army.
> 
> Thank you.



Armor?  Who needs armor? /sarc


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Just another follow up, in looking back, I guess it took ~2 weeks to get from Kuwaiti border to Baghdad in '03 -- that's about 350 miles. Large forces don't move fast.  So, maybe it's like @Marauder06 suggests, maybe they're staging?



I have no idea.  If there is no relative threat, staging makes sense.  I brought up outrunning the log train only because it has happened a billion times before.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I have no idea.  If there is no relative threat, staging makes sense.  I brought up outrunning the log train only because it has happened a billion times before.


I'm with you.  Like I said earlier, a bit of a head scratcher; who knows?!


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 3, 2022)

I just read that Ukraine is now hitting the columns with planes, artillery, and missiles.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 3, 2022)

Anyone hear any more on this?

Loud explosion heard in Washington, DC, near Russian Embassy: report


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Mar 3, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Anyone hear any more on this?
> 
> Loud explosion heard in Washington, DC, near Russian Embassy: report


This?

Over a dozen injured, 5 seriously, in a Maryland residential building fire, explosion, fire department says


----------



## pardus (Mar 3, 2022)

So the official word is lower enlisted can’t be over 45yrs old, senior NCOs 55yrs, and Officers can be old fucks because they really don’t do anything anyway 😉


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Mar 3, 2022)

This is the shit that legit keeps me up at night.

US doesn't stand 'a fighting chance' if Russia and China combine cyber tech, former Pentagon official says — Fox News

_China may already be sharing data with Russia, and America wouldn't stand "a fighting chance" if the two superpowers combined their cyber warfare capabilities, the U.S. Air Force's former chief software officer told Fox News.

"Not many nations would be able to push back," Nicolas Chaillan told Fox News. "I don't even think the United States would be able to push back if tomorrow Russia and China decide to come together against us."

"I think it would be very difficult for us to be able to even have a fighting chance, let alone a nation like Ukraine," he added.  _


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 3, 2022)

As a general musing, I think there has been a propensity (at least I've seen it here and there) to attribute this lack of results on the part of the Russians as some kind of brilliant master play to trick the world into thinking Russia is less than organised or capable. But I would say I think they've made some major strategic mistakes and they're exactly that, mistakes and not some 8d chess moves. 

I feel like a lot of this comes from people looking at Putin and saying "oh he was a KGB officer so everything must have a hidden meaning" but in fact that doesn't necessarily mean anything; he wasn't a particularly high rank and the publicly available information at least doesn't show he was responsible for running operations. So my thoughts are, have people extrapolated information wrongly over the years so he's got this aura of masterful deceit around him? Something to chew on.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> ...Officers can be old fucks because they really don’t do anything anyway 😉


It's better that way...


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Top Russian general killed by Ukrainian sniper
> This must be a huge blow to their morale losing such a high ranking officer


There was a British general from WW II who said something to the effect that there was nothing better for a foot soldier's morale than occasionally seeing a dead general. 
Anyway, I'm wondering if that 40 mile "convoy" is getting hit, would it be more effective to hit the front, the end or the middle? Answer gently please, I'm just an old civilian interested in professional opinions. (In other words, if I ask an ignorant question, it's because I'm ignorant) Thank you!


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 3, 2022)

Ukraine is saying that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was struck during a shelling and fighting. Currently on fire.


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 3, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> This?
> 
> Over a dozen injured, 5 seriously, in a Maryland residential building fire, explosion, fire department says


That one happened sometime around mid-morning in Silver Spring. 

The one @RackMaster is asking about happened late last night in NW DC, and to answer his question both police and USSS left after they couldn't find anything near the site where it was heard going off.  Also, unlike the explosion in Maryland, there were no buildings damaged or people injured.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 3, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Ukraine is saying that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was struck during a shelling and fighting. Currently on fire.


I read that also. That Russia plans on taking control of it. A nuclear plant shelled and on fire that size can cause major fallout for not only Ukraine but also surrounding countries. Being the largest plant in Europe you would think there would be worries. But still chirps. Wonder why no country wants to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine but are for their own country. Even the US is against a no-fly zone being declared.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 3, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I read that also. That Russia plans on taking control of it. A nuclear plant shelled and on fire that size can cause major fallout for not only Ukraine but also surrounding countries. Being the largest plant in Europe you would think there would be worries. But still chirps. Wonder why no country wants to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine but are for their own country. Even the US is against a no-fly zone being declared.


Ukrainian officials now claiming increasing radiation levels in the area. Chernobyl 2.0


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Mar 3, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Ukrainian officials now claiming increasing radiation levels in the area. Chernobyl 2.0


Sounds like the Russians are willing to destroy Ukraine to "save" it from the "Fascists".


----------



## TurniketTheNeck (Mar 3, 2022)

I thought this breakdown was insightful:


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 3, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Ukrainian officials now claiming increasing radiation levels in the area. Chernobyl 2.0


Ukrainian State Emergency Service is claiming that levels are currently in the “normal” range, but still elevated.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2022)

SOWFMike said:


> There was a British general from WW II who said something to the effect that there was nothing better for a foot soldier's morale than occasionally seeing a dead general.
> Anyway, I'm wondering if that 40 mile "convoy" is getting hit, would it be more effective to hit the front, the end or the middle? Answer gently please, I'm just an old civilian interested in professional opinions. (In other words, if I ask an ignorant question, it's because I'm ignorant) Thank you!



Front, middle, and end.

Current SitRep: Institute for the Study of War

So apparently the Russian are idiots and want to kill themselves by causing a Nuclear Meltdown. 

Ukrainian nuclear plant, Europe's largest, ablaze after Russian attack - minister


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> As a general musing, I think there has been a propensity (at least I've seen it here and there) to attribute this lack of results on the part of the Russians as some kind of brilliant master play to trick the world into thinking Russia is less than organised or capable. But I would say I think they've made some major strategic mistakes and they're exactly that, mistakes and not some 8d chess moves.
> 
> I feel like a lot of this comes from people looking at Putin and saying "oh he was a KGB officer so everything must have a hidden meaning" but in fact that doesn't necessarily mean anything; he wasn't a particularly high rank and the publicly available information at least doesn't show he was responsible for running operations. So my thoughts are, have people extrapolated information wrongly over the years so he's got this aura of masterful deceit around him? Something to chew on.


He rides horses bare chested and at some point may have personally injected a few people with polonium 210. He’s shrewd and ruthless enough to survive Russian political intrigue and remain in power. But he’s not a diabolical mastermind; maybe just a bit more underhanded and cunning than the average weak suck politicians we tend to elect in the West. He’s tougher than they are and they’re intimidated by him. 

This ain’t no master play. He’s royally fucked himself internationally with this political and strategic dumpster fire in Ukraine. Any blunt dumbass with an Army can kill a shitload of people and bomb cities into rubble. And that’s what he’ll win.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 3, 2022)

One thing that has stood out to me is that the   vaunted Russian Spetsnaz is not as  effective as the internet made them seem for so many years


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> This is the shit that legit keeps me up at night.
> 
> US doesn't stand 'a fighting chance' if Russia and China combine cyber tech, former Pentagon official says — Fox News
> 
> ...



This strikes me as a bit of "If this completely implausible and unrealistic event were to occur, and we weren't at least marginally prepared for it, ZOMG!!!" alarmism from Mr Chaillan.  Although I do freely admit he probably knows a little bit more about cyber than I do.


----------



## AWP (Mar 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> One thing that has stood out to me is that the   vaunted Russian Spetsnaz is not as  effective as the internet made them seem for so many years



Bruh, there’s no way all of those gun bro YouTubers are wrong.


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 3, 2022)

@Jaknight Speztnaz is a bit of a cover all term for anything basically not regular infantry, it basically covers anything from like an infantry recon team through to the FSBs Alfa. I'm just saying be a bit way of making a blanket statement like that. I have no idea what the other units are like that didn't, um, get destroyed and it could well be that the other units are arse too but we don't know that at this stage.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 3, 2022)

Ouch.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2022)

As mentioned earlier, the Russians are lobbing ordinance at a Nuclear Powerplant.  There are significantly easier and safer ways to cut people off from power...than causing a Nuclear Meltdown.  Get your linesmen in the air and cut the wires.  No reason to even attack this thing. 

Russian Fires Rocket Directly into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Campus


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

I take it for granted that just about everything Russian is a bit more fucked up than we’re led to believe. Except their Olympic figure skaters…Oh wait—


----------



## Gunz (Mar 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> As mentioned earlier, the Russians are lobbing ordinance at a Nuclear Powerplant.  There are significantly easier and safer ways to cut people off from power...than causing a Nuclear Meltdown.  Get your linesmen in the air and cut the wires.  No reason to even attack this thing.
> 
> Russian Fires Rocket Directly into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Campus



There are things in there that don’t react well to bullets.— Marko Ramius


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> As mentioned earlier, the Russians are lobbing ordinance at a Nuclear Powerplant.  There are significantly easier and safer ways to cut people off from power...than causing a Nuclear Meltdown.  Get your linesmen in the air and cut the wires.  No reason to even attack this thing.
> 
> Russian Fires Rocket Directly into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Campus


Concur.  Add to the list of things that don't seem to make a lot of sense. If, for a moment, we were to believe that everything else was going according to plan, as Putin and others suggest, then why shell the nuclear plant?


----------



## AWP (Mar 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Concur.  Add to the list of things that don't seem to make a lot of sense. If, for a moment, we were to believe that everything else was going according to plan, as Putin and others suggest, then why shell the nuclear plant?



Tell me you have a scorched earth policy without telling me you have a scorched earth policy.


----------



## DA SWO (Mar 3, 2022)

Late to the discussion, but I'll hit a number of topics if able.



Jaknight said:


> And raise gas prices in an election year?


Sarcasm, got it.


Marauder06 said:


> It is very interesting.  If they are in fact stopped their due to logistics, why?  I mean I know logistics are hard, but if you control the air and the roads, and you've had literally months to build up and stock pile supplies, why is it hard now?  Do they really suck so bad at this, or are they being degraded/intercepted/interdicted somehow?
> 
> And if Russia doesn't control the air, why isn't Ukraine going all "highway of death" on the convoys?  And if the air is contested and we know literally exactly where these convoys are--big fat targets stuck for days--why isn't Ukraine massing forces on the ground to get after them?


Late freeze, Early thaw, forcing road usage.  I think they are targeting log stuff (that's what I would do).


LimaPanther said:


> I read that also. That Russia plans on taking control of it. A nuclear plant shelled and on fire that size can cause major fallout for not only Ukraine but also surrounding countries. Being the largest plant in Europe you would think there would be worries. But still chirps. Wonder why no country wants to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine but are for their own country. Even the US is against a no-fly zone being declared.


I spent two weeks flying through the remains of Chernobyl, nuke plant going up will impact everyone in the Northern Hemisphere. (Gen McPeek single handily destroyed our ability to monitor these events).

UK President didn't (publically) seem to take our warnings seriously, WTFO?  Naval mines dropped (unannounced) into probably amphib landing zones might have made an impact.  Lots of defensive munitions, no artillery of missiles to help the offensive team?


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 4, 2022)

It appears Russian forces have taken the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Russia-Ukraine war latest news: Putin’s forces seize nuclear power plant after shelling starts fire – live


----------



## CVX (Mar 4, 2022)

China has dedicated a lot of cheddar to developing their Cross-Border Interbank Payment System with the intent of blunting any negative effects from SWIFT getting shutdown. Russia will also be undeterred as long as the US pays billions each month buying crude oil from them. I hate sounding like a talking-head,  but we certainly are funding Russia’s efforts in a way.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 4, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> UK President didn't (publically) seem to take our warnings seriously, WTFO?  Naval mines dropped (unannounced) into probably amphib landing zones might have made an impact.  Lots of defensive munitions, no artillery of missiles to help the offensive team?


Don't think this is true. Yeah, this administration was messaging in the media without also showing proof. But it doesn't appear like they were doing anything to help Ukraine than they already had. In fact they were withdrawing troops from the country. This administration and the staff of the JCS seem more than willing to screw up a climax than actually effectively plan something. See: Afghanistan retrograde embarrassment.


----------



## pardus (Mar 4, 2022)

Senator Lindsey Graham needs to STFU. 

Stupid Fuck Flaps His cockholster


----------



## Grunt (Mar 4, 2022)

pardus said:


> Senator Lindsey Graham needs to STFU.
> 
> Stupid Fuck Flaps His cockholster


Never mind ….


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 4, 2022)

pardus said:


> Senator Lindsey Graham needs to STFU.
> 
> Stupid Fuck Flaps His cockholster



This ironically came up next.

Warmongers


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 4, 2022)

Based on everything I'm seeing, Ukrainian Army morale continues to be high.  They're winning a ton of little victories that is making Russia lose men and material while ceding some control of territory, but that territory remains contested and you have regulars and territorial defense continuing to hit supply lines and also steal equipment.  Air is still very contested, although the Russians are able to execute bombing runs and the like, they don't control it at all.  What Ukraine doesn't have is enough airframes to replace what's lost.  If the West could sell/transfer/whatever significant air power to NATO trained Ukrainian pilots they can contest and possibly win some air fights. 

What we're seeing in Kharkiv and Mariupul is a win at all costs mentality and seeking to raise both cities to the ground.  Rather than just isolating and bypassing, this is a major strategic mistake as it will embolden Ukrainian Civilians to fight for generations.  If they wanted a "neutral" Ukraine, well Ukraine will never be neutral to Russia now. 

The Russian economy is still going because Europe and the US are still buying oil.  Although much of sanctions are having a heavy impact, over 50% of their economy is oil...so he's not running out foreign currency reserves since we're continuing to spend dollars and euros on oil.  Need to cut that off and things will change dramatically, either internal regime change, he pulls out and remains president but never leaves since he's now a war criminal, or this goes nuclear. Not sure.  But based on the speed of information I'd say Ukrainian Mod figures are pretty darn close.  Geolocation in metadata is a helluva thing.

ETA: Zelensky has now survived 3 assassination attempts. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499641005779435520


----------



## Gunz (Mar 4, 2022)

Eventually—probably sooner than later—he’s going to get some opposition pushback from Russian corporations and billionaire industrialists who’s businesses are facing potential financial ruin because of boycotts and sanctions.

Russian currency has dropped 30% in value since the start of the invasion; interest rates at Russian banks are running at 20% and there’s a run on banks as people line up at ATMs to get their money out before it all goes to shit.

Soldiers are expendable. But when the fat cats and powerbrokers start losing their shirts, things start to change.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 4, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Eventually—probably sooner than later—he’s going to get some opposition pushback from Russian corporations and billionaire industrialists who’s businesses are facing potential financial ruin because of boycotts and sanctions.
> 
> Russian currency has dropped 30% in value since the start of the invasion; interest rates at Russian banks are running at 20% and there’s a run on banks as people r line up at ATMs to get their money out before it all goes to shit.
> 
> Soldiers are expendable. But when the fat cats and powerbrokers start losing their shirts, things start to change.



One bank has lost more than 90% of its value, in fact, they can't afford to keep the lights on so they're probably closing down.  Their economy's worth is almost half of what it was 2 weeks ago.  

They've had I think 1800 people arrested for rioting and demonstrating against this? Yeah, they're in a prime spot to destabilize Putin, but it seems no one, no leader or country, wants to knock in the home winning run.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 4, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> One bank has lost more than 90% of its value, in fact, they can't afford to keep the lights on so they're probably closing down.  Their economy's worth is almost half of what it was 2 weeks ago…



I figure Russia’s in for a Great Depression…hopefully a tanking Russian economy doesn’t take the rest of the world down with it. Which is a possibility.

Diesel here for my truck is 4.50 a gallon. In my life, I have never seen it over 4.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 4, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I figure Russia’s in for a Great Depression…hopefully a tanking Russian economy doesn’t take the rest of the world down with it. Which is a possibility.
> 
> Diesel here for my truck is 4.50 a gallon. In my life, I have never seen it over 4.



I don't know how much diesel is here. Cheap unleaded is $3.79 a gallon.  My nephew's mother-in-law is in San Diego visiting family, she said that unleaded is $5.09.  We are approaching hurricane interruption level prices.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 4, 2022)

I can only imagine what the prices will be like this summer if something isn't done soon. Our diesel went up over 0.50 /gallon overnight. I hope Joe is happy now....


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Mar 4, 2022)

Interesting that in the same thread we have calls for cutting off oil imports and also fingerpointing at Biden for high prices at the pump. Personally, I think higher gas prices are a reasonable price to pay for putting Putin's nuts in a vice, but this is a case where everyone's milage will vary.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 4, 2022)

SOWFMike said:


> Interesting that in the same thread we have calls for cutting off oil imports and also fingerpointing at Biden for high prices at the pump. Personally, I think higher gas prices are a reasonable price to pay for putting Putin's nuts in a vice, but this is a case where everyone's milage will vary.


My prices went up before the war....


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 4, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Well he ain't gonna get it. This is gonna be the downfall of Putin's Russia. Because besides sanctions, there's a shitload of countries who will probably be willing to subsidize a Ukrainian insurgency. His economy will tank, the casualty lists will grow and I think eventually his own people will get rid of his ass.


I am concerned about him doing something really stupid.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Mar 4, 2022)

Grunt said:


> My prices went up before the war....


So did mine. Of course they were really low when our economy was in the dumper.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 4, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> One bank has lost more than 90% of its value, in fact, they can't afford to keep the lights on so they're probably closing down.  Their economy's worth is almost half of what it was 2 weeks ago.
> 
> They've had I think 1800 people arrested for rioting and demonstrating against this? Yeah, they're in a prime spot to destabilize Putin, but it seems no one, no leader or country, wants to knock in the home winning run.



That bank has entered bankruptcy:

European Subsidiary of Russia's Sberbank to Enter Bankruptcy - The Moscow Times

The Russians are arrested grandmas like Trudeaus mounties are trampling them.  Over 7,000 people have been arrested. 

Watch: Elderly woman in anti-war protest arrested in Russia - CNN Video




SOWFMike said:


> Interesting that in the same thread we have calls for cutting off oil imports and also fingerpointing at Biden for high prices at the pump. Personally, I think higher gas prices are a reasonable price to pay for putting Putin's nuts in a vice, but this is a case where everyone's milage will vary.



What do you find "interesting"?  On day one he killed energy independence with his rhetoric.  Wells got capped overnight.  His policies compounded this issue through the next year of COVID idiocy and oil companies couldn't do anything.  And then in a massive reversal, he issued more permits between 1 OCT 21 and 31 JAN 21 than Trump did in his entire administration.  Yet no one is drilling and no one is uncapping wells because there is no incentive as his rhetoric and policies haven't changed, other than the run up on permits.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 4, 2022)

SOWFMike said:


> Interesting that in the same thread we have calls for cutting off oil imports and also fingerpointing at Biden for high prices at the pump. Personally, I think higher gas prices are a reasonable price to pay for putting Putin's nuts in a vice, but this is a case where everyone's milage will vary.



Both things can be true. Biden's energy policy is an unmitigated work of shit, and this current crisis in Ukraine is increasing prices.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 4, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> I am concerned about him doing something really stupid.



We’ll, there’s always that, isn’t there? And any prognostications about the downfall of Putin by coup change dramatically if he launches nukes.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 4, 2022)

I think this is yet another "feeler" to test how far he will be tolerated and allowed to go. He wants the "breakaway" states back in order to bring back the glory of the "old days." The concern about how far he is willing to go is a valid one. Imagine what he would do if he found out he was sick or something along those lines. No one truly knows what's in the tyrant's mind....


----------



## Gunz (Mar 4, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> …What do you find "interesting"?  On day one he killed energy independence with his rhetoric.  Wells got capped overnight.  His policies compounded this issue through the next year of COVID idiocy and oil companies couldn't do anything.  And then in a massive reversal, he issued more permits between 1 OCT 21 and 31 JAN 21 than Trump did in his entire administration.  Yet no one is drilling and no one is uncapping wells because there is no incentive as his rhetoric and policies haven't changed, other than the run up on permits.



QFT. Bravo.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 4, 2022)




----------



## Devildoc (Mar 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> View attachment 38995



1st MarDiv remembers.

"Hey Staff Sergeant, where's the MREs?"

"75 mi behind us..."


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 4, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> I am concerned about him doing something really stupid.


The irony, of course, is that Putin claims to take these actions in the interest of Russia. Yet, in one week, he's single-handedly done more damage to the Russian people than anyone else in the past 35+ years.  The ability of the Russian people to work, travel, and participate with the rest of the "free" world has instantly evaporated through his actions.  A quarter of the Russian population is young enough to not even know what it was like in the "old days" of the Soviet Union. So now what? 

It's always a dangerous position when a person feels trapped/cornered.  The possible off ramps for Putin have become incredibly limited and I don't think any exist where he retains power.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 4, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The irony, of course, is that Putin claims to take these actions in the interest of Russia. Yet, in one week, he's single-handedly done more damage to the Russian people than anyone else in the past 35+ years.  The ability of the Russian people to work, travel, and participate with the rest of the "free" world has instantly evaporated through his actions.  A quarter of the Russian population is young enough to not even know what it was like in the "old days" of the Soviet Union. So now what?
> 
> It's always a dangerous position when a person feels trapped/cornered.  The possible off ramps for Putin have become incredibly limited and I don't think any exist where he retains power.


He is going to head south after Ukraine, imo. He is not stopping there.  He has to find additional wealth and resources for Russia. His economy is going to collapse eventually otherwise. He has been very critical of the Jews and their role in the first Bolshevik party. I would not be surprised.............Israel has some natural resources he might want. Anyways recently he took at shot at the commies for creating the Ukrainian state and how it made no sense to him.


----------



## 757 (Mar 4, 2022)




----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 4, 2022)

I have no way of knowing if this is true, never heard of "NEXTA_TV" before and I'm not going to take the time to Google Sen. Narusova.

But if this is true, even of just one company... just, wow.  96% casualties is like some WWI-level stuff.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I have no way of knowing if this is true, never heard of "NEXTA_TV" before and I'm not going to take the time to Google Sen. Narusova.
> 
> But if this is true, even of just one company... just, wow.  96% casualties is like some WWI-level stuff.
> 
> ...


Crazy numbers, if true. When they say conscripts were withdrawn, it would be interesting to see how this ties to the info I posted a few pages back. In that post, again, entirely reliant on the translation provided and assuming it's accurate, one complaint of the Russian soldiers is that they're being asked to sign and backdate some paperwork.  Essentially, the implication is they're conscripts and the backdating is to deny their service and participation in the offensive. They truly were cannon fodder.


----------



## Cartoonjunkies (Mar 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I have no way of knowing if this is true, never heard of "NEXTA_TV" before and I'm not going to take the time to Google Sen. Narusova.
> 
> But if this is true, even of just one company... just, wow.  96% casualties is like some WWI-level stuff.
> 
> ...


If true, that’s fucked. Poor guys forced to go fight in Ukraine for reasons they didn’t want and just thrown at the enemy in a human wave. Their morale must be rock bottom right now.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 4, 2022)

757 said:


> View attachment 38999


Entire fortune was built off strip mining precious metals, as if Tesla is building something sustainable...


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I have no way of knowing if this is true, never heard of "NEXTA_TV" before and I'm not going to take the time to Google Sen. Narusova.
> 
> But if this is true, even of just one company... just, wow.  96% casualties is like some WWI-level stuff.
> 
> ...


I wonder why such high casualties are occurring it’s insane


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

I have my doubts. Russia will have it locked down before April. They have about 600 casualties total.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

We also need to quit making a hero out of a crook.

Pandora Papers Reveal Offshore Holdings of Ukrainian President and his Inner Circle - OCCRP


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> We also need to quit making a hero out of a crook.
> 
> Pandora Papers Reveal Offshore Holdings of Ukrainian President and his Inner Circle - OCCRP



It is not binary. Both things can be true.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> It is not binary. Both things can be true.


Yep.  He may have been (probably was) a crook before the war, and may be a crook after.  Right now we need him to be a hero, because it serves our interests.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 5, 2022)

And if the Russians manage to kill him he’ll be a martyr and the Ukrainian National hero for the next 300 years.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> We also need to quit making a hero out of a crook.
> 
> Pandora Papers Reveal Offshore Holdings of Ukrainian President and his Inner Circle - OCCRP



Did you even read the article? There is nothing there. Cool, he HQ'd his production company in BVI.  It's a pretty bad smear job if it's a smear job of an article as all those funds transferred was for licensure of programs. Which went out to various television networks (as explained in the article).

So how dirty does that make him?  Not any dirtier than any US based politician.

That amount of Corporations HQd in Delaware because it's a tax haven and has friendly corporation laws in case there's a dispute is innumerable, even though 99% of companies incorporated in Delaware have never set foot there.  Oh, and we have a lifelong senator from Delaware currently fumbling about in the White House. 

AND, even if he was a "crook" that doesn't stop him from being a HERO for the world and his people.  Democratically elected leader of a country who was invaded without provocation by Russia?  His crookedness becomes wholly irrelevant.



Eagle 92-94 said:


> I have my doubts. Russia will have it locked down before April. They have about 600 casualties total.



Using a Russian based number is not accurate, and it's peddling disinformation. 

Putin vs. the web: Russia tries to hide casualties and searing war images

Russian Troop Deaths Expose a Potential Weakness of Putin’s Strategy


----------



## Dame (Mar 5, 2022)

While looking for information on the conscript situation. I found this tidbit. This won't go well for Putin if true.
"Ms Narusova spoke as the Russian Duma passed a new law punishing citizens with 15 years in prison if they are peddling "fake" information about the actions in Ukraine.
These mainly refer to calling the conflict a "war" rather than the Putin-approved "special operation"."
'96 percent dead' Russian senator opens up on huge soldier losses in one military company

ETA: True. News media are the target but reports say little old ladies are being arrested at protests as well.
Russia Targets Media Outlets With ‘Fake News’ Law, Blocks Facebook


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Did you even read the article? There is nothing there. Cool, he HQ'd his production company in BVI.  It's a pretty bad smear job if it's a smear job of an article as all those funds transferred was for licensure of programs. Which went out to various television networks (as explained in the article).
> 
> So how dirty does that make him?  Not any dirtier than any US based politician.
> 
> ...



LOL. You are fine with corrupt American politicians? I'm not. On your last comment and the Ukrainian one is? There is no truth during war.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

Gunz said:


> And if the Russians manage to kill him he’ll be a martyr and the Ukrainian National hero for the next 300 years.


In 50 years hipsters will be wearing t-shirts with his face on them ;)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> LOL. You are fine with corrupt American politicians? I'm not. On your last comment and the Ukrainian one is? There is no truth during war.


I guess it depends on how you've followed the war.  Western and Ukrainian sources are far more accurate, they may be some propaganda on estimates of dead bodies, but the equipment numbers wholly check out. 

Oryx

There's tons of sources you can look at that don't come close to backing up any bullshit that comes from Russia.  To include the French and UK MoDs. 

Here's a guy on twitter who has whole threads documenting Russian losses. 

https://twitter.com/RALee85


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I guess it depends on how you've followed the war.  Western and Ukrainian sources are far more accurate, they may be some propaganda on estimates of dead bodies, but the equipment numbers wholly check out.
> 
> Oryx
> 
> ...


You link me an article about a drone to support your argument? Twitter? Rob Lee?  Ok. Have a good day.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

This whole things seems like such an unnecessary own-goal for Putin.  His country is in a situation that we could have only dreamed of even just a year ago.  The whole thing seems to be on the edge of falling completely apart.  

Diplomatically, few countries that matter are backing him.  He is getting totally wrecked on the Information front, which is something Russia usually does somewhat well.  He's getting embarrassed Militarily by a (strongly Western-backed) Ukrainian military that he should have been able to completely steamroll.  And Economically?  Holy shit are things about to get bad for the Russians.  Putin dorked this up so bad that even the Europeans are agreeing to meaningful sanctions.  Hell Putin even motivated some freeriding European countries to start taking their own defense seriously and to start paying their NATO 2%.  He's even got the king of electric cars calling for increased fossil fuel production in the US.  

So far, all of this seems to be good for US national security interests, and very bad for Russia.  Short of an all-out war with Russia, it's hard for me to see right now how this doesn't end up being a net win for the US.  Maybe Russia will fuck themselves up so bad over this that they'll be sidelined for the next 20 years, which will give us the opportunity to focus on the real threat, which is China.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> You link me an article about a drone to support your argument? Twitter? Rob Lee?  Ok. Have a good day.



@ThunderHorse has many faults; mainly, he is ugly.  That said he's pretty objective about the stuff he posts and will call out all sides.  Instead of scoffing and engaging in _ad hominem_, why not check it out and assess the veracity for yourself?  Best case (for you) is you maintain your rightness; worst case you change your mind.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This whole things seems like such an unnecessary own-goal for Putin.  His country is in a situation that we could have only dreamed of even just a year ago.  The whole thing seems to be on the edge of falling completely apart.
> 
> Diplomatically, few countries that matter are backing him.  He is getting totally wrecked on the Information front, which is something Russia usually does somewhat well.  He's getting embarrassed Militarily by a (strongly Western-backed) Ukrainian military that he should have been able to completely steamroll.  And Economically?  Holy shit are things about to get bad for the Russians.  Putin dorked this up so bad that even the Europeans are agreeing to meaningful sanctions.  Hell Putin even motivated some freeriding European countries to start taking their own defense seriously and to start paying their NATO 2%.  He's even got the king of electric cars calling for increased fossil fuel production in the US.
> 
> So far, all of this seems to be good for US national security interests, and very bad for Russia.  Short of an all-out war with Russia, it's hard for me to see right now how this doesn't end up being a net win for the US.  Maybe Russia will fuck themselves up so bad over this that they'll be sidelined for the next 20 years, which will give us the opportunity to focus on the real threat, which is China.



He does seem to have totally underestimated the level of support he would get as well as the level of military engagement it would take to be successful.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> @ThunderHorse has many faults; mainly, he is ugly.  That said he's pretty objective about the stuff he posts and will call out all sides.  Instead of scoffing and engaging in _ad hominem_, why not check it out and assess the veracity for yourself?  Best case (for you) is you maintain your rightness; worst case you change your mind.


Twitter? No thanks.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> Twitter? No thanks.



LOL, you have never dealt with intelligence have you?


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> LOL, you have never dealt with intelligence have you?


I'm smart enough not to believe social media and most media in general. But thanks. Have at it.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> He does seem to have totally underestimated the level of support he would get as well as the level of military engagement it would take to be successful.


What I'm wondering is maybe whatever his end goal is, and I won't pretend to know what it is, if he just thinks it's worth all of this.  And how much is China in bed with him on this?  If those two worked in close concert it would definitely make life hard for the US.  But maybe China is looking at the world's reaction right now and are like, "You now, maybe we hold off for a little while on our little Pacific land grab."


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> What I'm wondering is maybe whatever his end goal is, and I won't pretend to know what it is, if he just thinks it's worth all of this.  And how much is China in bed with him on this?  If those two worked in close concert it would definitely make life hard for the US.  But maybe China is looking at the world's reaction right now and are like, "You now, maybe we hold off for a little while on our little Pacific land grab."


Look up Kievan Rus. Vlad sees himself as a Prince. Look at the nations that made that empire up. He secured Belarus two months ago without war. This goes back further than the Russian Empire.

Deepening Ties: Belarus and Russia Sign Union State Treaty

Kievan Rus' - Wikipedia

The modern nations of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine all claim Kievan Rus' as their cultural ancestors,[6] with Belarus and Russia deriving their names from it.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> I'm smart enough not to believe social media and most media in general. But thanks. Have at it.



OK, I will break it down Barney style.  You want to think in binary terms?  That's OK.  But you will always be wrong.  I have not been around S2 types (civ or mil) in, well, a long time, but 'back in the day' they looked at WSJ, NYT, Pravda, CNN, Fox, now Twitter, Insta, and every other source they could get.  Then they start looking for trends and patterns.  Then they start digging.  If YOU want to discount Twitter (or any other source) as lying twaddle, well, OK then.  Remember, even The National Enquirer and Drudge Report broke real, hard stories.  But if you are comfy wearing the tinfoil crown and going all dark web to find your truth, then to quote you, "have at it."  But maybe I have it all wrong.  You told me you smart enough, so I guess I will go back to being a knuckle-dragging troglodyte.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> OK, I will break it down Barney style.  You want to think in binary terms?  That's OK.  But you will always be wrong.  I have not been around S2 types (civ or mil) in, well, a long time, but 'back in the day' they looked at WSJ, NYT, Pravda, CNN, Fox, now Twitter, Insta, and every other source they could get.  Then they start looking for trends and patterns.  Then they start digging.  If YOU want to discount Twitter (or any other source) as lying twaddle, well, OK then.  Remember, even The National Enquirer and Drudge Report broke real, hard stories.  But if you are comfy wearing the tinfoil crown and going all dark web to find your truth, then to quote you, "have at it."  But maybe I have it all wrong.  You told me you smart enough, so I guess I will go back to being a knuckle-dragging troglodyte.


You are adorable. Have a good day.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> What I'm wondering is maybe whatever his end goal is, and I won't pretend to know what it is, if he just thinks it's worth all of this.  And how much is China in bed with him on this?  If those two worked in close concert it would definitely make life hard for the US.  But maybe China is looking at the world's reaction right now and are like, "You now, maybe we hold off for a little while on our little Pacific land grab."



I agree that China may be thinking "if Russia can't waltz into Ukraine, how are we going to mount an historic amphibious assault on the biggest island an amphibious assault has been launched against, successfully?"

It's hard to divine what Putin's end game is for sure.  But you know what he has is not what he was expecting.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> You are adorable. Have a good day.



Hey, you want to take this off line, I am happy to do so.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Hey, you want to take this off line, I am happy to do so.


I'm not looking for a date. No thanks. Have a nice weekend.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> OK, I will break it down Barney style.  You want to think in binary terms?  That's OK.  But you will always be wrong.  I have not been around S2 types (civ or mil) in, well, a long time, but 'back in the day' they looked at WSJ, NYT, Pravda, CNN, Fox, now Twitter, Insta, and every other source they could get.  Then they start looking for trends and patterns.  Then they start digging.  If YOU want to discount Twitter (or any other source) as lying twaddle, well, OK then.  Remember, even The National Enquirer and Drudge Report broke real, hard stories.  But if you are comfy wearing the tinfoil crown and going all dark web to find your truth, then to quote you, "have at it."  But maybe I have it all wrong.  You told me you smart enough, so I guess I will go back to being a knuckle-dragging troglodyte.



There is an art to open-source mining and if you know how to go about it the right way you'll find some gold.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle 92-94 said:


> I'm not looking for a date. No thanks. Have a nice weekend.



WTF, dude.... you are acting unhinged.  Take a breather.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> WTF, dude.... you are acting unhinged.  Take a breather.


Says the guy who wants to "take it offline." The irony. Have a good weekend.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 5, 2022)

@Eagle 92-94 I may not be staff anymore but you need to calm the fuck down.   There's some very experienced and highly intelligent people here, with extensive G2 work.


----------



## Deleted member 12579 (Mar 5, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> @Eagle 92-94 I may not be staff anymore but you need to calm the fuck down.   There's some very experienced and highly intelligent people here, with extensive G2 work.


That's fine but nobody is going to convince me Twitter is a valid source.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 5, 2022)

@Eagle 92-94 then leave it and move on.  You're stuck in your bubble, stay there and ignore anyone counter to your narrative.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> What I'm wondering is maybe whatever his end goal is, and I won't pretend to know what it is, if he just thinks it's worth all of this.  And how much is China in bed with him on this?  If those two worked in close concert it would definitely make life hard for the US.  But maybe China is looking at the world's reaction right now and are like, "You now, maybe we hold off for a little while on our little Pacific land grab."


China is shrewd and always looking out for itself.  It's interesting to keep an eye on their reactions. So far their responses have been very measured. Thought this article was an interesting read:
China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

What'd I miss?  Went to my local fat pill shop to get an apple fritter.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

Oh damn who called in the black Chinook??


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> What'd I miss?  Went to my local fat pill shop to get an apple fritter.



Not a thing but riveting discussion and  intellectual engagement. You know, the usual.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

On a side note, I've been away from the site for so long I forgot what the "Report" button was for.  Someone posted an interesting comment and I saw "Report" and thought it was an attachment with additional information so I clicked on it :)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Generally in war today, the speed of information as such with Social Networks as they are and tied to your phone.  If you want to be tuned into what's going on, unless we're actually the ones fighting.  The best information will be from independent analysts.  

GBR and FRA MoDs are issuing threat assessments and maps in daily briefings and are thinking left of bang with information flow.  Something the Pentagon is not, if anything they're still doing shit that was normal in the 1960s and only telling/leaking information to "trusted" sources.  You can find the daily maps from GBR and FRA MoDs on the internet freely.  

Twitter Threads, independent blogs, and freaking TikTok through independent analysts has the best information right now, sure some of it is wrong.  But that's why you need to read multiple sources and beer math your own numbers.  What I can definitely tell you is based on the amount of information out there, UKRA figures are likely a "best case" scenario, but the Russian equipment and personnel losses that they've released seems to be accurate based on the independent sources I've looked at.  +- 20%.  

Russian MoD Numbers and Maps?  Not remotely accurate.  The Russian version of the FCC is de-platforming any outlet that calls this thing a "war", let alone reports higher casualty figures.  It's a "Special Operation" and it's going according to plan, according to all the Russian sources.  Yet the amount of dead that UKRA is attempting to repatriate far exceeds the Russian numbers.  Is Russia trying to repatriate Ukrainian dead? No, they're looking to level cities that are 500 years old.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

I'm sorry, I just thought this was funny:  ;)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

13 days after SP and the west is still buying Russian oil.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 5, 2022)

The Chinook was self inflicted.   I tried to defuse it but he just wanted someone on his side.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Internal Transport within Russia will take a hit with these sanctions.  

First Aeroflot was pulled from the SABRE GDS: Russia's largest airline yanked from global reservation systems

Then yesterday Aeroflot ended all international flights (not that they could go anywhere with the skies closed): Aeroflot says it will suspend international flights.

Well, so more than 50% of the Russian Airline fleet is leased from European companies, most of them HQd in Ireland?  Ireland is a tax-haven btw. Well the EU says lessors have to retake possession of their aircraft by 28 MAR: European lessors have until March 28 to end all rental contracts in Russia, about 500 aircraft have to be returned - AIRLIVE


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 5, 2022)

First, we kick Russia out of NATO...


We have a winner! Actress Patricia Arquette scores the dumbest tweet of the week [screenshot]


----------



## AWP (Mar 5, 2022)

Eagle is a multi-time offender going back to my days on staff. He always returns with a mea culpa ( this time wasn’t necessary of course) and always catches the Hammer. I’m only sorry I wasn’t the one to do it again.


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 5, 2022)

In my opinion Putin’s decision to invade was the smart move as the West seemed very divided and full of political turmoil plus the pandemic. Also Europe was suckling on the Russian oil tit. It was the best time to make a move to prevent Ukraine from getting more closer to the west and joining NATO.  He however vastly underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated his own forces


----------



## Gunz (Mar 5, 2022)

Deleted member 12579 said:


> I'm smart enough not to believe social media and most media in general. But thanks. Have at it.


There’s not enough bandwidth on this website for me to list all the reasons why social media is a fucking goldmine for intel—and much of it very current or real-time information.

Half the dudes in prison right now are there because cops busted them through social media.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> Eagle is a multi-time offender going back to my days on staff. He always returns with a mea culpa ( this time wasn’t necessary of course) and always catches the Hammer. I’m only sorry I wasn’t the one to do it again.



In my new "new year/new me post-cancer" enlightenment I am much freer in what I say.  I was 'this' close to saying something to him that would have gotten me banned.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Putin agrees to Humanitarian Corridors, agrees to localized ceasefire for certain towns...immediately shells humanitarian corridors at the agreed upon times of evacuation.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500051855287664644


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 5, 2022)

@AWP I was kind of surprised he chose self destruction this time.


----------



## AWP (Mar 5, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> @AWP I was kind of surprised he chose self destruction this time.


As long as the trash is gone, I don’t care who takes it out of our house.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Was thinking about the situation for Putytanks. He started this war and all the other BS in 2014 because he wanted Ukraine to fall under his influence like Belarus.  People are saying Belarus came under his control two months ago, that's fully revisionist.  Belarus has been a puppet state of Russia's at least 10 years and heavy Russian Rotation of troops for the last five years.  Why else has Lukashenko been able to keep power after losing an election eh?  

So he wanted to declaw Ukraine.  Well this is the exact opposite.  Whenever this ends and Ukraine retakes every inch of territory including the separatist region and possibly Crimea. He will have a heavily hostile and militarized neighbor. So, if anything he's getting the polar opposite of what he wants.  All the while destroying his own economy.


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## Gunz (Mar 5, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So he wanted to declaw Ukraine.  Well this is the exact opposite.  Whenever this ends and Ukraine retakes every inch of territory including the separatist region and possibly Crimea. He will have a heavily hostile and militarized neighbor. So, if anything he's getting the polar opposite of what he wants.  All the while destroying his own economy.



I agree. Not sure about the Ukrainians retaking every inch, but if the Russian economy really collapses, combined with military losses and perhaps even widespread domestic unrest…and Ukraine continues to get massive support it’s certainly possible.


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I agree. Not sure about the Ukrainians retaking every inch, but if the Russian economy really collapses, combined with military losses and perhaps even widespread domestic unrest…and Ukraine continues to get massive support it’s certainly possible.


I think they get pretty close, I just don't have a timeline.  Could be a year?  Two years?  Ten years.  But when Russia beats retreat it will be bloody.

And to be clear, I never thought Putin would attempt to drive on Kyiv either.  I thought he was still doing rational piece meal things when it came to territory grabs.  Clearly I was wrong.  But based on how Ukraine has fought, they will fight to take what's theirs.

Putin is clearly no longer a rational actor.


----------



## Polar Bear (Mar 5, 2022)

Good Movie
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom (2015) - IMDb


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 5, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> Good Movie
> Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom (2015) - IMDb



Watching that now.  I don't remember Maidan as much as it was a thing, weirdly remember the Orange Revolution much more.  But holy shit.  Where do these people find so many cops?

ETA-
So, the Berkut, which was some quasi Special Force Police, a huge organization.  Quasi FBI.  But also basically a hardcore security apparatus that was a relic of the USSR.  Was dissolved in 2014, the units in Crimea helped Russia annex the peninsula and defected to Russia.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 5, 2022)

Netflix put it on YouTube last night, so anyone can watch it.  Just remember to use CC and turn on English subtitles.


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## CQB (Mar 5, 2022)

Demi Hass on TikTok

That’s it for us, all we got.


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## CQB (Mar 5, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> China is shrewd and always looking out for itself.  It's interesting to keep an eye on their reactions. So far their responses have been very measured. Thought this article was an interesting read:
> China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts.


The PRC has also quietly said to Russia that sovereignty is to be respected. Not exactly word for word but as didling like that is no-no & keeping out of nations affairs a core belief of theirs. Ive read several opinions on what China will do & it looks like no-one knows. I don’t think their politburo knows either. Xi had a plan as part of the B&R to join the Pacific to the Atlantic with a rilly Kewl railway…running through Ukraine.


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## Gunz (Mar 5, 2022)

CQB said:


> Demi Hass on TikTok
> 
> That’s it for us, all we got.


Crikey. Dainger, dainger, dainger.


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## SpitfireV (Mar 5, 2022)

CQB said:


> The PRC has also quietly said to Russia that sovereignty is to be respected. Not exactly word for word but as didling like that is no-no & keeping out of nations affairs a core belief of theirs. Ive read several opinions on what China will do & it looks like no-one knows. I don’t think their politburo knows either. Xi had a plan as part of the B&R to join the Pacific to the Atlantic with a rilly Kewl railway…running through Ukraine.



I think B&R is going to struggle considerable in the next few years and they might need to either temper their expectations or scale it back. (I feel like that's the wrong temper). 

But what will they do? Who knows. They keep everything pretty close to their chest up there. I think the CCP is having one of their big meetings at the moment so might learn more shortly.


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## CQB (Mar 5, 2022)

The Wolf Warrior diplomacy didn’t work, here the big players have folded their tents & the B&R is likely to stall. Did Xi move to quickly? I’d say yes.


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## Ooh-Rah (Mar 6, 2022)

Germany.  Shots fired….


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## Marauder06 (Mar 6, 2022)




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## ThunderHorse (Mar 6, 2022)

Mariupul Evacuation halted, second consecutive day that Russians have shelled the agreed upon evacuation corridor. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500467187533979657


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## Grunt (Mar 6, 2022)

Are there any thoughts out there that people are possibly growing tired of Putin and he is realizing it and upping his tyrannical game?


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 6, 2022)

I don't know, but there are a lot of people, many Americans who seem to have bought into Russian bullshit out there tweeting about how Zelensky is a crook and a tyrant that "put his political opponent in prison".  

Which 1. Isn't true. 2. The State did have a warrant for Poroshenko's arrest. 3. When he was arraigned the court denied prosecution and he was released.  He was in jail less than 48 hours. And guess where Poroshenko is now?  Leading a Battalion in the Territorial Defense Force.


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## Blizzard (Mar 6, 2022)

Grunt said:


> Are there any thoughts out there that people are possibly growing tired of Putin and he is realizing it and upping his tyrannical game?


My impression is that Putin still has considerable backing of the Russian people.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 6, 2022)

So, buying Chinese Truck Tires is bad, mmmmkay?!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500327305977249794


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## Gunz (Mar 6, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> My impression is that Putin still has considerable backing of the Russian people.



His domestic propaganda machine is working overtime pounding out the “We’re fighting the Ukrainian Nazis” line. And that Nazi angle is still able to strike a deep cord in the Russian psyche. I’d guess the majority of lower to middle-class Russians are buying everything Putin’s selling.

But just wait. It’ll take time before the effects of sanctions, boycotts and military losses hit home for the average Russian. Then things may get interesting.


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## Blizzard (Mar 6, 2022)

Gunz said:


> His domestic propaganda machine is working overtime pounding out the “We’re fighting the Ukrainian Nazis” line. And that Nazi angle is still able to strike a deep cord in the Russian psyche. I’d guess the majority of lower to middle-class Russians are buying everything Putin’s selling.
> 
> But just wait. It’ll take time before the effects of sanctions, boycotts and military losses hit home for the average Russian. Then things may get interesting.


From the Germans in re: repeated "Nazi" angle - seems to be a fair call out:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500032894261211138


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 6, 2022)

Appparently, zee varrr iz a goin vewy well...



> WASHINGTON—Moscow is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukraine as Russia’s invasion is poised to expand deeper into cities, according to U.S. officials.
> 
> An American assessment indicates that Russia, which has been operating inside Syria since 2015, has in recent days been recruiting fighters from there, hoping their expertise in urban combat can help take Kyiv and deal a devastating blow to the Ukraine government, according to four American officials. The move points to a potential escalation of fighting



WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say


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## Gunz (Mar 6, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Appparently, zee varrr iz a goin vewy well...
> 
> 
> 
> WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say



The Russian conscripts must be farm boys.


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## Chopstick (Mar 6, 2022)

I know @Raksasa Kotor  previously posted about Germany sending military aid to Ukraine so please forgive me if this is redundant.  I found this rather cheeky on Germany's part.  If you can picture Germans being cheeky that is. Germany donates Soviet-made 9K32 Strela-2 MANPADS to Ukraine





> Germany has decided to open warehouses with old Soviet weapons from the Cold War era and the Berlin Wall, and to help Ukrainians in their war against Russia. 2,700 units of Man-portable air-defense systems 9K32 Strela-2 will be immediately delivered to Kyiv.
> 9K32 Strela-2 is a legend in the Soviet-Afghan war, which ended in 1989 with the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the Asian country. During the conflict, Egypt and China, as well as other CIA-assisted third countries, supplied Soviet-made 9K32 Strela-2s to the mujahideen. 9K32 Strela-2 began shooting down Soviet Mi helicopters and low-flying aircraft during the Soviet-Afghan war. This encouraged the mujahideen, and although many of the 9K32 Strela-2s donated to them were old or broken, the balance of power began to tilt in favor of the mujahideen.
> 
> Germany’s decision to open the old warehouses from the time of Eastern Europe was taken today, March 3, 2022. NATO’s 9K32 Strela-2 name is SA-7 Grail. At the end of February, Berlin had already approved the supply of 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger air defense systems to Ukraine.


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 6, 2022)

Say what you want about Russia and their prisons...but how does Navalny get a phone to tweet stuff?


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## Chopstick (Mar 6, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Say what you want about Russia and their prisons...but how does Navalny get a phone to tweet stuff?


That is very perplexing.   
The Man Putin Fears



> From the confines of his barracks, he still runs a network of dissidents devoted to ousting President Vladimir Putin. Its top leaders are fugitives from Russian law, though they were not hard for me to find while reporting this story. Some met me while they were fundraising in New York City or lobbying in Washington. Others showed me the TV studio they built in Eastern Europe, just outside Russia’s border, to air broadcasts for millions of followers inside. Through them, I began to receive a series of handwritten letters from Penal Colony No. 2. “Please, not too many questions,” Navalny told me in the first one last October. “There’s no time for writing here, and the process of getting these pages out is exhausting.” You wouldn’t know it from the volume of his subsequent answers, about two dozen line-ruled pages covered in a hurried Russian script. The first one came punctuated with a smiley face, as though the dissident were still adding emojis to the blog that started his political career.


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## RackMaster (Mar 6, 2022)

Now this is interesting.    More Russians, Ukrainians seek asylum at U.S.-Mexico border


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## SpitfireV (Mar 6, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Say what you want about Russia and their prisons...but how does Navalny get a phone to tweet stuff?



Same way any prisoner anywhere does. 

The butt. 

(Or more likely a guard). There's also the possibility he's just relaying what he wants tweeted to visitors.


----------



## CQB (Mar 6, 2022)

So how about Germany in all this? A Green Left government now is to rearm & to consider nuclear & coal instead of renewables & Russian supplied gas. It is a remarkable 180 degree turn. Not so much mugged by reality, but overnight left the touchy-feely behind & almost instantly realized WTF was on offer. Well done Olaf Sholtz.


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## Gunz (Mar 7, 2022)

CQB said:


> So how about Germany in all this? A Green Left government now is to rearm & to consider nuclear & coal instead of renewables & Russian supplied gas. It is a remarkable 180 degree turn. Not so much mugged by reality, but overnight left the touchy-feely behind & almost instantly realized WTF was on offer. Well done Olaf Sholtz.



Yeah, that was a welcome surprise. Nothing like fear and nowhere to run to stiffen the backbone.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 7, 2022)

Watching France 24, so no links to back me up here. Yet, will try and find some when I hop on the computer.

Turkey is going to host the next round of talks. Previous peace delegations did not include both Foreign Ministers. This talk will host both of them.

Putin has stated to Erdogan was that this war will not end until Ukraine surrenders and meets Russia's demands.

After shelling previously agreed upon Humanitarian corridors Russia is now trying implement corridors that only lead to Russia. Which they say were negotiated by Emmanuel Marron. Marron denied that he agreed with any of this. Ukraine has told them to get bent on this.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 7, 2022)

China reaffirms commitment to Russia:
China calls Russia its chief 'strategic partner' despite war


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 7, 2022)

We can quarterback this situation all we want, but it comes down to the world really doing nothing but watch Russia take Ukraine. Everyone is so worried that if they do something to stop it that they will have to fight Russia and start WWIII. So, we sit back and watch Russia take any country not a member of the EU or NATO. Don't expect anyone in Russia to take out Putin unless it would be someone real close to him and I doubt that. Sad that the strongest armies in the world are hamstrung in this situation.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 7, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> We can quarterback this situation all we want, but it comes down to the world really doing nothing but watch Russia take Ukraine. Everyone is so worried that if they do something to stop it that they will have to fight Russia and start WWIII. So, we sit back and watch Russia take any country not a member of the EU or NATO. Don't expect anyone in Russia to take out Putin unless it would be someone real close to him and I doubt that. Sad that the strongest armies in the world are hamstrung in this situation.


Yep….


----------



## Gunz (Mar 7, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> We can quarterback this situation all we want, but it comes down to the world really doing nothing but watch Russia take Ukraine. Everyone is so worried that if they do something to stop it that they will have to fight Russia and start WWIII. So, we sit back and watch Russia take any country not a member of the EU or NATO. Don't expect anyone in Russia to take out Putin unless it would be someone real close to him and I doubt that. Sad that the strongest armies in the world are hamstrung in this situation.




Yes, sir, he’s got our nuts in a vice. If it weren’t for nukes, we might be engaging.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 7, 2022)

But climate change, feelings and shit.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 7, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Yes, sir, he’s got our nuts in a vice. If it weren’t for nukes, we might be engaging.


Putin himself can't launch the missiles, it is his commanders. Would they push the button when Putin gave the order, knowing what the results would be.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 7, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Putin himself can't launch the missiles, it is his commanders. Would they push the button when Putin gave the order, knowing what the results would be.



That’s a crapshoot. Depends on what scares them most, Putin or nuclear retaliation. You’d like to think it would be the latter.

Now if you ask that question about Kim and North Korea…launch or death by flamethrower firing squad, the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 7, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I think they were expecting it to be jammed once the invasion began and were going to use LORAN.



Well, GLONASS has been integrated into our survey software and I am a bit concerned about reliability...I haven't seen anything on the professional boards to that effect, but in many ways, since we do not perceive ourselves as directly involved, I wonder if anyone is even thinking about it...


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 7, 2022)

Apparently Japan officially declared the Southern Kurils, sovereign Japanese land.           Login • Instagram


----------



## Dame (Mar 7, 2022)

Sooooo, maybe Japan hacked the Soviet GPS and moved their border.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 7, 2022)

Can’t beat the timing.


----------



## Dame (Mar 7, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Can’t beat the timing.


Yeah. You know I'm wondering what's on those islands now. I mean in 2014 they put a data collection station in Crimea after "annexing" it. If the Japanese poke the Bear on these islands it might be over something juicier than just "Hey assholes, look over here!"

Sorry, my imagination is on overload these days. I gave up hard alcohol for lent.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 7, 2022)

So apparently Ukrainian Artillery sunk this ship off the coast of Odessa...using a captured Russian MLRS system.

Ship is for sure sunk though, lols.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500821110606213129
ETA-

Yo, very hard to prosecute a war when you have no secure comms and your radios don't work...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500959074653024259


----------



## AWP (Mar 7, 2022)

Dame said:


> Sorry, my imagination is on overload these days. I gave up hard alcohol for lent.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 7, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So apparently Ukrainian Artillery sunk this ship off the coast of Odessa...using a captured Russian MLRS system.
> 
> Ship is for sure sunk though, lols.
> 
> ...


Let me get this straight...Ukraine sink a battleship using land based ARTILLERY?!


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 7, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Let me get this straight...Ukraine sink a battleship using land based ARTILLERY?!


OK, I read this quickly on my phone first.  So, a patrol ship, not a battleship...but still.  And MLRS, not old school artillery...but, again, still!


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 7, 2022)

Dame said:


> I gave up hard alcohol for lent.


I thought I detected a disturbance in the Force...


----------



## Dame (Mar 7, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> I thought I detected a disturbance in the Force...


Yep. Mama's off her meds.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 8, 2022)

Dame said:


> Yeah. You know I'm wondering what's on those islands now. I mean in 2014 they put a data collection station in Crimea after "annexing" it. If the Japanese poke the Bear on these islands it might be over something juicier than just "Hey assholes, look over here!"
> 
> Sorry, my imagination is on overload these days. I gave up hard alcohol for lent.



I think the Japanese are doing just that, giving the Bear a little jab in the ass while its attention is diverted. An minor irritation for Putin at the moment but nothing more. From what I gather Russian communities are pretty firmly ensconced on those islands. 

Now pour yourself a stiff shot and forget this silly lent business.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 8, 2022)

Biden expected to sanction/embargo Russian POL.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 8, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Biden expected to sanction/embargo Russian POL.



No problem, we'll get all our oil from Canada and the Keystone Pipeline........oh, wait.....


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 8, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Biden expected to sanction/embargo Russian POL.



I'm good with that if he told our oil companies that it was open season, but he isn't.  He's still for destroying our internal energy sector while courting Venezuela and Iran to get their oil.  Which is freaking wild.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I'm good with that if he told our oil companies that it was open season, but he isn't.  He's still for destroying our internal energy sector while courting Venezuela and Iran to get their oil.  Which is freaking wild.



Good article:

U.S. Bans Imports of Russian Oil. What That Means.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 8, 2022)

Gunz said:


> No problem, we'll get all our oil from Canada and the Keystone Pipeline........oh, wait.....


I'm sure this was as well thought out as the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Which is to say, it wasn't planned or thought out well at all.

Besides, good ol' Jen Psaki tells us we're still receiving all the oil Keystone would've provided, it's just coming in through different methods. 🙄


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Mar 8, 2022)

Shit just got real….

_BREAKING: McDonald's is temporarily closing all of its 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine._


----------



## Grunt (Mar 8, 2022)

There will most certainly be the wailing and gnashing of teeth now.....


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 8, 2022)




----------



## AWP (Mar 8, 2022)

I’m lovin’ it.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 8, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Shit just got real….
> 
> _BREAKING: McDonald's is temporarily closing all of its 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine._


Wow.  That strikes me as pretty significant "putting your money where your mouth is."  McDonald's is going to continue to pay its employees, but they're not going to make any money as a corporation there for the foreseeable future.   McDonald's temporarily closes 850 restaurants in Russia, nearly 2 weeks after Putin's forces invaded Ukraine


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 8, 2022)

I loved how we have politicians who can't read the room...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501198247796387845
ETA- Poland has granted the use of MIG-29s to the United States in exchange for Aircraft with corresponding Operational Capabilities. 

Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 8, 2022)

I don't think she's wrong in this regard.  Those weapons, especially MANPADS, don't just disappear after the conflict stops.  My understanding was that they require maintenance and that they go bad over time, but if Germany can keep those crappy SA7s (or whatever) from the freakin' COLD WAR going...

Edited to add this link, and to specify they were Strelas.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> ETA- Poland has granted the use of MIG-29s to the United States in exchange for Aircraft with corresponding Operational Capabilities.
> 
> Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website


This is a great deal for the Poles.  They offload their aging fleet of MiG-29s and get what... new made-in-the-USA tech?  Win-win.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I loved how we have politicians who can't read the room...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501198247796387845
> ...



Yeah, her timing is definitely off. 

There’s nothing earth-shattering about the zillions of military weapons and hardware from any conflict within the past 50 years still floating around and abundant in international arms markets. 

It’s too fucking late, lady…you’re bitching about a grain of sand being added to the beach.


----------



## CQB (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I'm good with that if he told our oil companies that it was open season, but he isn't.  He's still for destroying our internal energy sector while courting Venezuela and Iran to get their oil.  Which is freaking wild.


@ThunderHorse its a choice between an oil ban or inflation & both pose a dilemma. Rising energy costs can make consumer prices higher thus inflation increases. Venezuelan oil may assist as a replacement & it looks like a necessity to lower prices trumps any other reason. The amount of oil imported from Russia to the US is not a great deal though, about 8-9%.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 8, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'm sure this was as well thought out as the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Which is to say, it wasn't planned or thought out well at all.
> 
> Besides, good ol' Jen Psaki tells us we're still receiving all the oil Keystone would've provided, it's just coming in through different methods. 🙄



But it plays right into the Administration’s push for electric vehicles. The gas prices (and hence the price of everything else) started to go up when Biden came into office and nixed the pipeline and suspended drilling permits…but now he can blame Russia.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 8, 2022)

CQB said:


> @ThunderHorse its a choice between an oil ban or inflation & both pose a dilemma. Rising energy costs can make consumer prices higher thus inflation increases. Venezuelan oil may assist as a replacement & it looks like a necessity to lower prices trumps any other reason. The amount of oil imported from Russia to the US is not a great deal though, about 8-9%.


Yes but the faster response here is to tell US Oil Companies to get guys back on rigs and go.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Yes but the faster response here is to tell US Oil Companies to get guys back on rigs and go.



Absolutely. But Biden and the democrats would have to be under intense pressure to reverse his agenda.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 8, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Absolutely. But Biden and the democrats would have to be under intense pressure to reverse his agenda.


Yep...those that have become "institutions" due to their longevity there would have to be severely threatened by the actual loss of their positions before that would happen. The "people" would have to actually get off their butts and actively get them voted out, but - that relies on the same crumbs that keep them there so my hopes are dimming quickly....


----------



## Dvr55119 (Mar 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Yes but the faster response here is to tell US Oil Companies to get guys back on rigs and go.



I am an know nothing in the oil and gas field. But looking at the data, it seems like 2020, and 2021 were the highest yield years ever in US production. So who are they putting back on rigs that were off them, while we are at basically our highest production ever?

There isn’t data here on 2022 yet. 

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 8, 2022)

CQB said:


> @ThunderHorse its a choice between an oil ban or inflation & both pose a dilemma. Rising energy costs can make consumer prices higher thus inflation increases. Venezuelan oil may assist as a replacement & it looks like a necessity to lower prices trumps any other reason. The amount of oil imported from Russia to the US is not a great deal though, about 8-9%.



Recession is on the way.  Not 'just' higher POL and consumer prices, but less purchasing power per dollar.  We're screwed.  We might avoid it, but I don't know that we will.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 8, 2022)

So I guess Ukraine and State have been negotiating this Mig-29 deal since the Russians crossed SP and Ukraine began losing airframes.  I'm unsurprised that State actually gets a deal over the line DoD then mucks it up. What a goat rope.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501336450012528647


----------



## AWP (Mar 9, 2022)

Why do the planes need to go to the US at all? Send them straight to the Ukraine and then we backfill Poland with F-16’s or the new F-15’s.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> Why do the planes need to go to the US at all? Send them straight to the Ukraine and then we backfill Poland with F-16’s or the new F-15’s.



You know how S4 works: you don't get a new one until you turn in a broken one.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> Why do the planes need to go to the US at all? Send them straight to the Ukraine and then we backfill Poland with F-16’s or the new F-15’s.


Yeah, that's really weird.

I wonder if Poland is doing that out of an abundance of caution, "Whoa Russia, we gave those planes to the US, if they then gave them to Ukraine, that's not something you can get mad at *us* about!"

It's amazing how much this is shaping up like WWII:  a dictator grabbing land, Europe and the US cheering from the sidelines but not doing much on the ground, and now "lend-lease."

I wonder what the Pearl Harbor moment is going to be, this time around.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> Why do the planes need to go to the US at all? Send them straight to the Ukraine and then we backfill Poland with F-16’s or the new F-15’s.


They'd be going to Ramstein, no idea why either. Just park them on some strip adjacent the border and let them fly off at night. Why this is so hard I don't know, but this is the same competence err lack of competence that led to our trash Afghan final withdrawal.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Don’t worry, Kamala Harris will straighten this whole mess out. 🙄


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Don’t worry, Kamala Harris will straighten this whole mess out.


Not fookin' likely


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 9, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> They'd be going to Ramstein, no idea why either. Just park them on some strip adjacent the border and let them fly off at night. Why this is so hard I don't know, but this is the same competence err lack of competence that led to our trash Afghan final withdrawal.



Plausible deniability essentially.  Sounds like they want to leverage a swap to do it and just say it was a one for one trade and we couldn't have possibly known that they would have given it over to the Ukrainians.

Possibly the reason for flying to Ramstein is to try and unequivocally signal that this is an American deal rather than materiel laundering.  But we all know what this is lol.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Yeah, that's really weird.
> 
> I wonder if Poland is doing that out of an abundance of caution, "Whoa Russia, we gave those planes to the US, if they then gave them to Ukraine, that's not something you can get mad at *us* about!"
> 
> ...



I think that’s it exactly. Eastern Europe is scared shitless right now. Nobody wants to provoke Putin over that fragile line. Delicate balance, isn’t it? Helping Ukraine with one hand, but not enough to antagonize Putin to retaliate. 

I agree about the WW2 similarities.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Not fookin' likely



Heavy sarcasm on my part. 😉🍺


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Heavy sarcasm on my part. 😉🍺


Don't you hate it when you're right?
Harris travels to Poland, Romania as Russia continues invasion of Ukraine for 14th day


----------



## Dame (Mar 9, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Don't you hate it when you're right?
> Harris travels to Poland, Romania as Russia continues invasion of Ukraine for 14th day


Years from now she'll tell the story of how she had to duck and run when leaving the plane to avoid the bullets whizzing over her head.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I think that’s it exactly. Eastern Europe is scared shitless right now. Nobody wants to provoke Putin over that fragile line. Delicate balance, isn’t it? Helping Ukraine with one hand, but not enough to antagonize Putin to retaliate.
> 
> I agree about the WW2 similarities.


Lots of people who have been freeriding their national security beneath the blanket of Pax Americana are SUPER nervous right now.  Lots of people want to talk shit about our country until "someone" needs to "do something."


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Lots of people who have been freeriding their national security beneath the blanket of Pax Americana are SUPER nervous right now.  Lots of people want to talk shit about our country until "someone" needs to "do something."


You could replace "Mr. Atkins" in Rudyard Kipling's tome with "America" and not be far off of world opinion...


----------



## Grunt (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Lots of people who have been freeriding their national security beneath the blanket of Pax Americana are SUPER nervous right now.  Lots of people want to talk shit about our country until "someone" needs to "do something."


It won’t get any better. I suspect we will most certainly see a rise in the number of “keyboard commandos” soon….


----------



## AWP (Mar 9, 2022)

Europe needs to nut up and if the Polish plane swap is because they want some level of deniability then it reinforces my already low opinion of that country.

Part of me wants to tell Europe to learn Russian and hope for the best. I’m waiting on China to not let a crisis go to waste…

You know what would be crazy? What if, just spitballing here, but what if the Ukraine had a bunch of A-29’s, MD-530 gunships, small arms, uparmored vehicles, and other miscellaneous military hardware…say the kind we gave to Afghanistan. Wouldn’t that be a hoot? Our navy is divesting itself of some patrol boats, surely that would help in some capacity. Anything, send whatever can kill Russians to the Ukraine. Marines don’t need tanks? I know someone who does.

While I’m ranting, WTF is the difference escalation-wise between Javelins and aircraft? Javs are killing more Russians than their health care system, but airplanes would push Pootie Poo over the edge? Cossack, please. Let’s turn Ukraine into Afghanistan, the 1985 version, not the post-9/11 shitshow we all know and love.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 9, 2022)

What we need are some leaders with some actual scrotal mass and not manginas. We have become as grasshoppers in the sight of the world. We can remain that way or change it. We seem to be growing comfortable being viewed as the new worldwide weaklings.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Don't you hate it when you're right?
> Harris travels to Poland, Romania as Russia continues invasion of Ukraine for 14th day





Dame said:


> Years from now she'll tell the story of how she had to duck and run when leaving the plane to avoid the bullets whizzing over her head.



Whenever I’m on the brink of World War Three, I always send Kamala Harris.

(And I get points for a couples quote.)


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> (And I get points for a couples quote.)


And where do you plan on redeeming those points...?


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Whenever I’m on the brink of World War Three, I always send Kamala Harris.
> 
> (And I get points for a couples quote.)


Nothing instills confidence more than knowing Kamala is on point.

Seriously, Russia isn't even talking to anyone from this administration.  They're talking to French President Macron.


----------



## digrar (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I wonder what the Pearl Harbor moment is going to be, this time around.



Tamsui River, starring Ben Affleck, it's not really a war movie, more a love story.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> And where do you plan on redeeming those points...?



At the local Citgo. Diesel just hit $5 a gallon 😎😉


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 9, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Nothing instills confidence more than knowing Kamala is on point.
> 
> Seriously, Russia isn't even talking to anyone from this administration.  They're talking to French President Macron.


Sorry to quote my own post -- really just want to add to my previous comment, evidently other world leaders aren't even taking calls from Biden:
Saudi, UAE leaders declined calls with Biden amid Ukraine conflict: report


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 9, 2022)

Well now there is this.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501676240180322311
Basically Psaki is saying we can expect Russia to use bio and chem weapons in a “false flag” attack.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 9, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Well now there is this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501676240180322311
> Basically Psaki is saying we can expect Russia to use bio and chem weapons in a “false flag” attack.


This is pretty serious.  We've started wars with countries over their WMD programs.


----------



## AWP (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This is pretty serious.  We've started wars with countries over their WMD programs.



Vlad’s betting we don’t have the stones to go to war with Russia. He could gas all of Kiev and the West will do nothing militarily.  No one will openly confront a nuclear armed nation, much less Russia.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> Vlad’s betting we don’t have the stones to go to war with Russia. He could gas all of Kiev and the West will do nothing militarily.  No one will openly confront a nuclear armed nation, much less Russia.


God damn this situation is fucked


----------



## AWP (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> God damn this situation is fucked



Step through it though. Economic sanctions will hurt him enough to withdraw? Why? A people’s revolt? The oligarchs pressuring Vlad? The former will be crushed and the latter is enough to overcome Vlad’s will? Not likely.

Russia will need capital, imports, exports, it isn’t an island. Now what?

China is what.

We’re going to flood the Ukraine with small arms and such, maybe some wheeled vehicles. They need tanks, planes, helos, air defense that isn’t MANPADs. Who is sending that stuff? The tooth fairy? The West won’t escalate like that. We’re afraid Pooty Poo will do (insert bad thing here). So, we follow the 1980’s Afghanistan model and hope the Ukraine can hang on.

But can it? Will Russia commit more troops? They’ll probably sent Belorussian’s in to die in the Ukraine, but then what if the Ukraine bleeds them dry…assuming there’s a Ukraine in a month or two? To quote that scion of information Jen Psaki: let’s circle back to the top of this post.

What can overcome Vlad’s ego? What is stronger than his will?

I really wonder how much longer the Ukraine can “Wolverine up” before it is bled dry.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> Step through it though. Economic sanctions will hurt him enough to withdraw? Why? A people’s revolt? The oligarchs pressuring Vlad? The former will be crushed and the latter is enough to overcome Vlad’s will? Not likely.
> 
> Russia will need capital, imports, exports, it isn’t an island. Now what?
> 
> ...


Given how the Russians have reportedly stalled out and, if casualty numbers are even in the ballpark, I could see a scenario where Putin tries to save face by simply remaining in the separatist regions and negotiating from there saying, "See, I was just getting rid of the Nazis". 

They're already two weeks into something they reportedly thought would be done in 15 days. That's not happening.  How much longer will this "special military operation" continue?

The only other option appears to be complete scorched earth, which doesn't make a ton of sense (which isn't necessarily a requirement given what's taken place so far).  There aren't too many Ukrainians willing to back a Russian regime.  So, short of that, Russian will be pulled into a very long and costly insurgency.  The motherland will grow weary of that it fairly quickly, I imagine.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 9, 2022)

Putin’s ego, his ambitions, his credibility, his relevance, his political power and political life depends on the success of this venture. He has to win, or at least appear to win, especially now, since his opening moves have been embarrassing, clumsy and expensive. He cannot afford to lose more face.

Nothing he might do would surprise me. 

Except nukes. Nukes would surprise me.


----------



## Kaldak (Mar 9, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Nothing he might do would surprise me. Except nukes. Nukes would surprise me.



I agree completely.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 9, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I loved how we have politicians who can't read the room...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501198247796387845


A little aside, FWIW... this is one of Omar's opponents.  I hope she's right....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501558505723072518


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 9, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> A little aside, FWIW... this is one of Omar's opponents.  I hope she's right....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501558505723072518


Omar is so popular within her constituency right now that short of a federal indictment I don't see her leaving office.  Ever.  Unless it's on to a higher one...


----------



## Grunt (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Omar is so popular within her constituency right now that short of a federal indictment I don't see her leaving office.  Ever.  Unless it's on to a higher one...


One can always hope that she is sucked up by evil aliens and used as a science experiment unless they feel she is rotten goods and send her back to us as punishment....


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Omar is so popular within her constituency right now that short of a federal indictment I don't see her leaving office.  Ever.  Unless it's on to a higher one...


That is the issue.  Her district has only voted Democrat for the early '60s...and it's not even close.  That said, the district now has a large Somali population, which is how Omar got elected.  Will be interesting to see if another Somali female can draw interest.  Omar does come under scrutiny here too, the question is do the people in that district even care?  The people in that district are radical, fanatical Dems.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 9, 2022)

So the war must be going reeeeeeeelllll bad. Recruiting Syrians and deploying PMCs?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501701763921059845


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 10, 2022)

Seems like the Russians are showing their true colors...
Russian military vehicles are flying Soviet hammer and sickle flags in Ukraine


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 10, 2022)

This is an interesting conversation, that gives a little insight into Putin.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 10, 2022)

So, Ukraine has long been considered Europe's bread basket...with farmers fighting and stealing tanks and such, I wonder if crops are being planted and how much damage is being done to those already planted...?  Could be hard times in Europe come fall...


----------



## Gunz (Mar 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So the war must be going reeeeeeeelllll bad. Recruiting Syrians and deploying PMCs?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501701763921059845



Wagner Group I reckon. Putin's buddy's private army.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 10, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> So, Ukraine has long been considered Europe's bread basket...with farmers fighting and stealing tanks and such, I wonder if crops are being planted and how much damage is being done to those already planted...?  Could be hard times in Europe come fall...



When the SHTF City folk have to unass the AO. Farmer's can't. They gotta stay. Animals need to cared for, crops need to be sowed or harvested or fertilized or whatever. The war goes on around them. 

Right now Russian objectives seem to be population centers. If they're transiting rural areas in tracked vehicles they'll tear shit up. And I have no idea how much actual fighting is going on in the countryside.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 10, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Wagner Group I reckon. Putin's buddy's private army.



Isn't that the group we kicked the shit out of in Syria?  I think it is.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 10, 2022)

This tweet...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501582106131984385


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 10, 2022)

Are they even changing their socks and drinking water??


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 10, 2022)

I bet we can find pictures of the Russians with their hands in their pockets, too.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 10, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I bet we can find pictures of the Russians with their hands in their pockets, too.


Hey, Big Blue threw in the towel and says that's OK now too. 🙂


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 10, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Don’t worry, Kamala Harris will straighten this whole mess out. 🙄


I'll just leave you with this...  Where is she?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502004162912997376


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 10, 2022)

Interesting capture from Russian State TV.  There have been a few pics of the Soviet flag flying on tanks since just about Day 1 of this invasion and I generally don't make too much of that stuff.   However, what will the Russian people think if they increasingly see a return of the Soviet flag?  Will they embrace it (is there "good" nostalgia with that?) or will they say "whoa, time out here"...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501967111656194052


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'll just leave you with this...  Where is she?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502004162912997376


“Madam Vice President, you’re a few words short of your word count, so just throw in a few cardinal directions, and you should be good to go.”

Edit to add: everything I’m seeing says she’s in Poland. Now, I didn’t major in maps, but I think Poland is on the west side of Ukraine… unless she means the eastern flank of NATO? Or did she mean north? Am I so dumb, that I can’t even understand her dumbed down speeches?


----------



## Grunt (Mar 10, 2022)

She is a complete and utter failure. When Xiden can't embarrass us enough as a nation...they send her as a reinforcement to complete the job.

I refuse to dumb myself down enough to understand her elementary psychobabble....


----------



## AWP (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'll just leave you with this...  Where is she?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502004162912997376


----------



## AWP (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Interesting capture from Russian State TV.  There have been a few pics of the Soviet flag flying on tanks since just about Day 1 of this invasion and I generally don't make too much of that stuff.   However, what will the Russian people think if they increasingly see a return of the Soviet flag?  Will they embrace it (is there "good" nostalgia with that?) or will they say "whoa, time out here"...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501967111656194052



I don’t care if they embrace the flag, I’m concerned images were shown on state-run Russian television. If the Russian government openly acknowledges the flags, that says a lot.

You know, I’m one those who at the height of that utter embarrassment known as the GWOT pined for a return to the Cold War. “The Soviets kept these shitholes in line” and all that. Damn near the entire planet is destabilized and now the Russians are getting the band back together?

Strong work, AWP. You really fucked up this wish.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 10, 2022)

AWP said:


> I don’t care if they embrace the flag, I’m concerned images were shown on state-run Russian television. If the Russian government openly acknowledges the flags, that says a lot.


Concur 100%. You stated this better than I did.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'll just leave you with this...  Where is she?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502004162912997376


I remember when she used to speak normal.  The problem with her weird syntax here is that Poland isn't some backwater in 1866.  It's pretty educated today and most of the reporters in that room are multi-lingual.  So ever time both her and the other guy speak it degrades our positon.  Like, hello, speak normally. Thanks.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 10, 2022)

Some Russian armour getting pasted. 

Drone footage shows Ukrainian ambush on Russian tanks | Ukraine | The Guardian


----------



## Dame (Mar 10, 2022)

So if they are flying the Soviet flag, they are not Russians. They are Soviets. We have no treaty or legal reason not to treat them just as some invaders waving say an ISIS flag, right? The Soviets are not a legal entity any longer, are they? No rules of war apply, as Putin says. Just a bunch of mercs?


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I remember when she used to speak normal.  The problem with her weird syntax here is that Poland isn't some backwater in 1866.  It's pretty educated today and most of the reporters in that room are multi-lingual.  So ever time both her and the other guy speak it degrades our positon.  Like, hello, speak normally. Thanks.


I wish that were the explanation.  Sadly, there's too much evidence to suggest otherwise. I honestly believe she just has no clue on many of the topics she's speaking on. I'll stop there.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501315912799977474


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'll just leave you with this...  Where is she?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502004162912997376


Damn that was embarrassing.  

I sound like that sometimes when I’m sleep deprived.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I wish that were the explanation.  Sadly, there's too much evidence to suggest otherwise. I honestly believe she just has no clue on many of the topics she's speaking on. I'll stop there.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501315912799977474


Oh, she's been talking like this since she because the vice. She's despicable. 

Also, this is hilarious. 

Ukraine’s corruption prevention agency praises Russia's minister Shoigu for corruption in the army (VIDEO) | National Agency on Corruption Prevention


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 11, 2022)

Dame said:


> So if they are flying the Soviet flag, they are not Russians. They are Soviets. We have no treaty or legal reason not to treat them just as some invaders waving say an ISIS flag, right? The Soviets are not a legal entity any longer, are they? No rules of war apply, as Putin says. Just a bunch of mercs?



Depends on who is the declared hostile force in this situation - obviously anyone flying the Soviet flag will be assumed to be in allegiance to Russia so that should be another subclause in the ROE if this thing does turn hotter.

Mercs are going to be a different question with regard to how LOAC treats them, but any NATO encounter with them will have PR reasons to ensure they are treated the same as other Russian combatants.  Or you could make the argument that they're essentially the same as Russian forces since their C2 probably follows similar lines to those of the Russian army.

Just some musings.  Not saying this is for sure what's going to happen.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 11, 2022)

Okay…

Russia Makes Crazy Claim That U.S. Is Training Birds To Spread A Ukrainian Bioweapon (Updated)

Begin the false flag attacks.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 11, 2022)

Since the USSR no longer exists its flag would be legally meaningless. It expresses nostalgia—which is certainly _revealing_—but it’s no different than a Marine Corps tank (remember those?) sporting a Confederate flag.

(Like this one at Gitmo in 72. Hard to make out but the flag is partially visible just to the right of the driver. Also note the Iron Cross which I think the crew added to give the tank a hint of Germanic badassness. The yellow writing on the barrel reads: _Horrible Hog_ )


----------



## Gunz (Mar 11, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Okay…
> 
> Russia Makes Crazy Claim That U.S. Is Training Birds To Spread A Ukrainian Bioweapon (Updated)
> 
> Begin the false flag attacks.



I can't hear you. My anthrax-infested parakeets are making too much noise.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 11, 2022)

War is going great guys. Deploying Syrian volunteers. Putytanks going real hard with the "spoils of war" and the whole "[blank] and Pillage" part.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501857364017762306


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 11, 2022)

Social media/big tech, whatever you want to refer to them as, really does suck donkey balls. This whole arbitrary censor content and cancel culture drives me nuts. Several accounts I followed just to see what kind of ridiculous messages were being put out on the Russian side are now suspended.  I found it very interesting to see how they framed things and balance it against some of the Ukrainian propaganda as well.

This is probably content for a separate topic discussion but there really needs to he a change.  If social platforms want to take the position of censoring/removing some content, fine -- that's their right.  But, that means they're also responsible and LIABLE for ALL content that gets published. They don't get to have it both ways.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 11, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> War is going great guys. Deploying Syrian volunteers. Putytanks going real hard with the "spoils of war" and the whole "[blank] and Pillage" part.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501857364017762306



That Russian infantry video: not a whole lot of organization there. Higgledy-piggledy on an open hard road. Lots of targets. Too brief a video to really analyze, but they strike me as rookies.


----------



## Dame (Mar 11, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Just some musings.  Not saying this is for sure what's going to happen.


Yup. Was just (a)musing myself on that one. Makes sense. Thanks.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 11, 2022)

I'll need to go back and check but this is the 2nd or 3rd Russian General killed, I   what, 2 weeks? 😳

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502269176513273856
Also, found this pretty funny:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501938378878558220
I've also seen Ukraine propaganda ads offering Russian pilots big $$$ to defect with their jet or helicopter.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 11, 2022)

A couple videos reportedly around Kiev. A LOT of anti-tank weapons:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501966658222571523


----------



## AWP (Mar 11, 2022)

There are some folks right now with serious boners over all of the captured Russian tech they can exploit. Nellis, Fallon, Wright Pat… leave is canceled, folks.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 11, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'll need to go back and check but this is the 2nd or 3rd Russian General killed, I   what, 2 weeks? 😳
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502269176513273856
> Also, found this pretty funny:
> ...


Last article I saw, stated 9 generals/commanders.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 11, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Last article I saw, stated 9 generals/commanders.



Is this in addition to the alleged 8 generals fired by Putin?  Heard that being bandied about at work earlier.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 11, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> A couple videos reportedly around Kiev. A LOT of anti-tank weapons:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501966658222571523


Not to be overly critical, but everyone I saw was an IMT no-go...they could use a little time getting personal with FM 3-21...


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 11, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Is this in addition to the alleged 8 generals fired by Putin?  Heard that being bandied about at work earlier.


Damn, Putin is firing senior leaders faster than the US Navy.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 11, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> Is this in addition to the alleged 8 generals fired by Putin?  Heard that being bandied about at work earlier.


So just commanders, not necessarily generals, some might be both.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europ...ws-story/31d18dbd68e05910ab01301a113ac5f7?amp


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 11, 2022)

Hm, imagine a country's military leaders being held accountable for a "clusterfuck."


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 11, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Hm, imagine a country's military leaders being held accountable for a "clusterfuck."


A novel approach, indeed...


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 11, 2022)

And the next generation learns about war from "influencers". https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/11/tik-tok-ukraine-white-house/


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 11, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> And the next generation learns about war from "influencers". https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/11/tik-tok-ukraine-white-house/


That should strike fear into the hearts of potential adversaries...and here's our first influencer...
he's a marine tik tok - Bing video


----------



## Kaldak (Mar 11, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> That should strike fear into the hearts of potential adversaries...and here's our first influencer...
> he's a marine tik tok - Bing video



Noooooooo!


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 11, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> And the next generation learns about war from "influencers". https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/11/tik-tok-ukraine-white-house/


Did Kamala give the briefing?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 11, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Not to be overly critical, but everyone I saw was an IMT no-go...they could use a little time getting personal with FM 3-21...



3-21.8 sir. 😎😜


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 11, 2022)

Gunz said:


> 3-21.8 sir. 😎😜


It's been awhile, ya know...


----------



## Queeg (Mar 11, 2022)

Instead of bothering with summary trials or even executions, just send the generals you suspect of disloyalty or incompetence to Ukraine.  It'll save a lot of paperwork.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 11, 2022)

Queeg said:


> Instead of bothering with summary trials or even executions, just send the generals you suspect of disloyalty or incompetence to Ukraine.  It'll save a lot of paperwork.



It worked for Hitler.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 11, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Not to be overly critical, but everyone I saw was an IMT no-go...they could use a little time getting personal with FM 3-21...


How would you grade their russian counterparts?


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 11, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> How would you grade their russian counterparts?


With the red end of the pencil...


----------



## Dvr55119 (Mar 11, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> With the red end of the pencil...


Fucking savage!


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 11, 2022)

We are so effed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502360205991890945


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 12, 2022)

Small escalation.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 12, 2022)

I wonder if this will affect Syrian support. 

Russia shells mosque housing 80 civilians in Mariupol: Ukraine


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 12, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Small escalation.View attachment 39064


If memory serves, a country's targeting of US convoys supporting a ground war in Europe was one of the major reasons America (eventually) jumped into WWI.

Milestones: 1914–1920 - Office of the Historian.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 12, 2022)

This hit me in a way I didn't expect.  As in, unexpected tears welling up in my eyes.

My wife and daughter are quite good at the piano and we also have a fancy grand.  What we don't have is a gaping hole through our house, or the Russians making their way towards our town.

It's hard to tell what's real and what's fake in this conflict, but there really is a war going on, and people who don't deserve to die have, and are going to.

One of many things that all of my time in Afghanistan and Iraq taught me is that you don't need nukes, or tanks, or artillery, or an air force to defeat an occupying power.  But you do need organization, training, weapons, and the will to use them.  "The will to use them" being the most important.

Health conditions or no, I like to think that if I were in a similar situation, the piano playing in my bombed-out living room would be the background music while I saw off the bottoms of champagne bottles, break up a bunch of Styrofoam, and spend a little time in my basement with a soldering iron and a couple of garage door openers.  I learned a little about that in Iraq and Afghanistan too.

But I don't have to do those things, because I live in the US and not Ukraine.

I feel enormous empathy for the people of Ukraine right now, and tremendous gratitude for, and pride in, being an American.





__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=274485511501783


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 12, 2022)

So, FSB 5th Directorate (Foreign Intelligence) was raided and the Chief of Foreign Intelligence has been placed under arrest by the FSO (Presidential Security)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html


----------



## Gunz (Mar 12, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This hit me in a way I didn't expect.  As in, unexpected tears welling up in my eyes.
> One of many things that all of my time in Afghanistan and Iraq taught me is that you don't need nukes, or tanks, or artillery, or an air force to defeat an occupying power.  But you do need organization, training, weapons, and the will to use them.  "The will to use them" being the most important.


 
(And I’d add the will and patience to outlast the occupier.)

Following along with this human drama can trigger some PTSD issues. I believe PTSD can hit a thinking person even harder than, say, someone less prone to introspection. My combined action company CO in Vietnam—whom I would have followed into the pits of hell—retired a Lt Col. He still cannot talk about it. Too many letters to grieving families, too many ghosts. 

We follow vicariously the drama because we’ve BTDT and while it attracts our warrior spirit, it evokes sadder emotions as well.


----------



## TLDR20 (Mar 12, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This hit me in a way I didn't expect.  As in, unexpected tears welling up in my eyes.
> 
> My wife and daughter are quite good at the piano and we also have a fancy grand.  What we don't have is a gaping hole through our house, or the Russians making their way towards our town.
> 
> ...



That is great perspective. For the last couple of years I have seen a lot of people waxing poetic about a civil war or some other such nonsense in the US. This is what would be in store. An absolute goddawful shit show. 

(Not directed at anyone in particular) America, despite its flaws is the greatest country in the world. Don’t let petty political shit tell you otherwise.


----------



## TLDR20 (Mar 12, 2022)

The video of the maternity hospital and NICU babies hit me deep in my feels. I cannot watch it without feeling something I didn’t know I had inside me.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 12, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> We are so effed.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502360205991890945


I want to hate that the White House is doing this but info ops is soooo important, I can see why they're doing it.  There is so little trust in government, and so little awareness inside the general populace, I think this is probably a good idea.


----------



## Locksteady (Mar 12, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I want to hate that the White House is doing this but info ops is soooo important, I can see why they're doing it.  There is so little trust in government, and so little awareness inside the general populace, I think this is probably a good idea.


As well, Gen Z and younger Gen Y are particularly vulnerable targets for this due in part to that same lack of awareness and inherited mistrust, but also because of the extensive time they spend on newer social media platforms, which are increasingly becoming their principal source of news.

This is a good move by Washington, and perhaps a useful template for future info ops.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 12, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I want to hate that the White House is doing this but info ops is soooo important, I can see why they're doing it.  There is so little trust in government, and so little awareness inside the general populace, I think this is probably a good idea.


Just continuing to do the same shit they did with COVID policies.  Waste money and then push their version of the facts.  This administration spent billions on COVID messaging with regular media outlets and then hundreds of millions with influencers.  So I don't like this one bit.  Talk about distrust?  There is nothing that would make me trust this administration at this juncture...except maybe resigning.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 12, 2022)

I’m convinced weak leadership in this country and in Europe is one of the reasons why Putin felt confident to make this move at this time. He doesn’t fear us enough. And neither do the Chinese.

JFK responded to the Cuban Missile Crisis with a bold decisiveness backed by strength that rocked the Soviets back on their heels. I honestly doubt if a man like Putin would’ve taken the chance with a Ronald Reagan in the Oval Office…or a Truman or an Eisenhower.

At some point the PRC is going to take Taiwan. It’s going to happen. Probably at a time when they perceive weakness and indecisiveness in Washington DC. We don’t have to make it easy for them.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 13, 2022)

Award-winning US journalist Brent Renaud killed in Ukraine: police

So the guy was wearing a badge holder with the American flag, and “peacekeeper” embroidered on it, holding his press credentials. However, the badge was from a previous assignment as he was not there on assignment with NYT.

So how does this play out? American killed, but under false credentials…


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 13, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Award-winning US journalist Brent Renaud killed in Ukraine: police
> 
> So the guy was wearing a badge holder with the American flag, and “peacekeeper” embroidered on it, holding his press credentials. However, the badge was from a previous assignment as he was not there on assignment with NYT.
> 
> So how does this play out? American killed, but under false credentials…



Russians already ambushed a broadcast team from Sky News in the UK, so the reality is they're shooting indiscriminately at journalists.

ETA-
This was published on the 5th, so probably happened a few days before: Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 13, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Award-winning US journalist Brent Renaud killed in Ukraine: police
> 
> So the guy was wearing a badge holder with the American flag, and “peacekeeper” embroidered on it, holding his press credentials. However, the badge was from a previous assignment as he was not there on assignment with NYT.
> 
> So how does this play out? American killed, but under false credentials…


Actions have consequences. You want to run around an active battlefield you take all the risks.


----------



## Polar Bear (Mar 13, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Award-winning US journalist Brent Renaud killed in Ukraine: police
> 
> So the guy was wearing a badge holder with the American flag, and “peacekeeper” embroidered on it, holding his press credentials. However, the badge was from a previous assignment as he was not there on assignment with NYT.
> 
> So how does this play out? American killed, but under false credentials…


He gets put in a box and shipped home. End of story


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 13, 2022)

Russia only wants their approved version of events sent out, through the CCP embeds.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 13, 2022)

This is awesome.

Ukraine reportedly adapts small drones to drop Molotov cocktails in war with Russians
Ukraine reportedly adapts small drones to drop Molotov cocktails in war with Russians​


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 13, 2022)

I’ve been using this website since just before the start of the war. It’s nice they translate Twitter posts to English. 

Ukraine Interactive map  - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 13, 2022)

I believe this is an important read for current US Government employees who have an active security clearance or are in the process: Fed Workers Should Be Careful About Donating Directly to Ukraine’s Military


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 13, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Award-winning US journalist Brent Renaud killed in Ukraine: police
> 
> So the guy was wearing a badge holder with the American flag, and “peacekeeper” embroidered on it, holding his press credentials. However, the badge was from a previous assignment as he was not there on assignment with NYT.
> 
> So how does this play out? American killed, but under false credentials…



He's another martyr, in a war that desperately needs them.

Moreover, he's a martyr from a country that Ukraine desperately needs to have involved, from a demographic that "isn't supposed to get killed" during a war.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 13, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This is awesome.
> 
> Ukraine reportedly adapts small drones to drop Molotov cocktails in war with Russians
> Ukraine reportedly adapts small drones to drop Molotov cocktails in war with Russians​
> View attachment 39076



Now Russia will just say the homes they are bombing/shelling are active war targets since they are producing weapons.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 13, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Now Russia will just say the homes they are bombing/shelling are active war targets since they are producing weapons.



By this logic, the maternity hospital was a legitimate target since the babies will grow up to be soldiers one day.  Not that they cared.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 13, 2022)

Archangel27 said:


> By this logic, the maternity hospital was a legitimate target since the babies will grow up to be soldiers one day.  Not that they cared.



Hard disagree. If you are making munitions or any thing else used against a military force you are fair game. We did it all the time in Iraq and Afghanistan with IED makers.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 13, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Hard disagree. If you are making munitions or any thing else used against a military force you are fair game. We did it all the time in Iraq and Afghanistan with IED makers.


That is true.  I would say that in this case, it is a larger question (assuming you are applying LOAC principles instead of what the Russians would likely do) of trying to gather intelligence to ascertain who is the bomb maker and reduce the possibility of civilian casualties and target his place with precision munitions when he is ideally alone.

My fear, and what I was trying to make light of, is that the justification will result in a response that is widely disproportionate because random people "could" be making Molotov cocktails.

All I'm saying.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 13, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Hard disagree. If you are making munitions or any thing else used against a military force you are fair game. We did it all the time in Iraq and Afghanistan with IED makers.



They were bombing civilian targets well before any advance into the cities and they have no intel to back them up. They're using local sim cards and stolen phones to call back to inform high command when generals are being killed.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 13, 2022)

This is a big blow to the volunteer troops.  Includes 134 hospitalized.     Global News: Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border. Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border - National | Globalnews.ca


----------



## Dame (Mar 13, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This is awesome.


How does that thing get lit?


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 13, 2022)

Somebody probably already mentioned China and Russia. Looks like that is a real thing now. 

Yuan Deposits Soar At Russian Banks After SWIFT Cut-Off | ZeroHedge


----------



## pardus (Mar 13, 2022)

US officials say Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine


----------



## pardus (Mar 13, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This is a big blow to the volunteer troops.  Includes 134 hospitalized.     Global News: Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border. Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border - National | Globalnews.ca




Fake news from Russia? Say it ain’t so! lol


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> US officials say Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine


From your artical:
"Before leaving Washington on Sunday, Sullivan warned China not to try to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on President Vladimir Putin and his regime."

Would the above article I just posted stand as trying to "bail out" Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the effect of sanctions? Appears the line may have already been crossed.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> US officials say Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine



Line was crossed already lol.


----------



## AWP (Mar 13, 2022)

With minimal effort China can keep Russia’s economy alive. You think the West will apply sanctions to the country that makes iPhones, Nikes, Lebron James, and our imports?

 Comrade, please.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 13, 2022)

When it comes to IO, Ukraine is doing pretty damn well. 

Login • Instagram


----------



## Gunz (Mar 14, 2022)

AWP said:


> With minimal effort China can keep Russia’s economy alive. You think the West will apply sanctions to the country that makes *everyfuckingthing we have.*
> 
> Comrade, please.



FIFY


----------



## Gunz (Mar 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Line was crossed already lol.



If China is not already sending covert help to Russia, I'm betting it soon will. And there's not a goddamned thing we can do about it. China alone doesn't fear the US. Or the EU. If China aligns itself with Russia in an actual military pact, that reduces the US to impotence. Together they can do anything they want, forge ahead with their individual agendas as long as they don't step on each other's toes.

I'm betting that happens, too, eventually.

Russia and China Unveil a Pact Against America and the West


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 14, 2022)

Gunz said:


> If China is not already sending covert help to Russia, I'm betting it soon will. And there's not a goddamned thing we can do about it. China alone doesn't fear the US. Or the EU. If China aligns itself with Russia in an actual military pact, that reduces the US to impotence. Together they can do anything they want, forge ahead with their individual agendas as long as they don't step on each other's toes.
> 
> I'm betting that happens, too, eventually.
> 
> Russia and China Unveil a Pact Against America and the West


Keep in mind the economics. Even combined, China and Russia's GDP would lag behind the U.S. alone by a few trillion.  So, while it would hurt, for now, the U.S. economy, especially when the rest of the world is factored in, still reigns and this important.


----------



## pardus (Mar 14, 2022)

From Russia with love…

Ukraine is just the beginning: war has been a long time coming


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Mar 14, 2022)

AWP said:


> With minimal effort China can keep Russia’s economy alive. You think the West will apply sanctions to the country that makes iPhones, Nikes, Lebron James, and our imports?
> 
> Comrade, please.


Do you think people are gonna care about Lebron Xin Xiang James, iPhones, and Nikes, when they're shelling out 3 time more at the grocery store, gas pump, and for daily necessities? The US is decoupling from the global world order, multinationals have moved outta China to SE Asia and the America's. China's economy is fucked either way.

Russia will be lucky if China doesn't turn around and try to rape them outta their northern territories. Especially after their lack luster performance in Ukraine.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> From Russia with love…
> 
> Ukraine is just the beginning: war has been a long time coming



Very interesting reading on that site.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

So I'm not up to speed on all of the details, but it appears that certain wealthy Russian individuals (the "oligarchs") are having their property seized as part of international sanctions.

I find this process interesting, and even concerning, for a number of reasons but that's not the point of this post.  It occurred to me that this is more or less modern-day privateering.  Any thoughts on that?

Russian-Owned Super Yachts Going Dark to Avoid Sanction Seizure - USNI News


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 14, 2022)

I won't bother you if you don't bother me. But if you mess with my family or property then I am going to do what is necessary to protect them.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> From Russia with love…
> 
> Ukraine is just the beginning: war has been a long time coming


It's always interesting to hear the Russian angle. A lot of fantasy in that read.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 14, 2022)

This is the first time I've ever watched a whole Trever Noah monologue and I actually enjoyed some of it.


----------



## Dame (Mar 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> So I'm not up to speed on all of the details, but it appears that certain wealthy Russian individuals (the "oligarchs") are having their property seized as part of international sanctions.
> 
> I find this process interesting, and even concerning, for a number of reasons but that's not the point of this post.  It occurred to me that this is more or less modern-day privateering.  Any thoughts on that?
> 
> Russian-Owned Super Yachts Going Dark to Avoid Sanction Seizure - USNI News


Then Russia just became Captain Barbosa. Seizing foreign trademarks for use by the state? Seriously?
Call in the mouse and the clowns. This will not be tolerated. 
WSJ News Exclusive | Russian Prosecutors Warn Western Companies of Arrests, Asset Seizures


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

Dame said:


> Then Russia just became Captain Barbosa. Seizing foreign trademarks for use by the state? Seriously?
> Call in the mouse and the clowns. This will not be tolerated.
> WSJ News Exclusive | Russian Prosecutors Warn Western Companies of Arrests, Asset Seizures


Paywalled, but I think I got the gist from the headline and first couple of paragraphs.  Yikes.


----------



## Dame (Mar 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Paywalled, but I think I got the gist from the headline and first couple of paragraphs.  Yikes.


Quick synopsis:


> Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to Western companies in Russia, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticize the government or to seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
> 
> Prosecutors delivered the warnings in the past week to companies including Coca-Cola Co. , McDonald’s Corp. , Procter & Gamble Co. , International Business Machines Corp. and KFC owner Yum Brands Inc., the people said. *The calls, letters and visits included threats to sue the companies and seize assets including trademarks, the people said.*


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

Dame said:


> Quick synopsis:


It's weird that they threatened to "seize trademarks."  What are they going to do, go all Fanta and start producing cut-rate Coca-Cola because they're being embargoed or something?

The physical threats are real, though.  They could absolutely nationalize every franchise of every US-based fast food restaurant, do police raids on every US corporation with a headquarters, and/or start arresting the shit out of rich and/or famous Americans in Russia.

And they probably will.


----------



## AWP (Mar 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> start arresting the shit out of rich and/or famous Americans in Russia.
> 
> And they probably will.



As an American, I consider any nation holding one of our citizens to be a very serious matter.

As a person, if you are an American still in Russia (outside of US gov't business of course), then you are a moron, but I hope an FSB prison isn't too bad. 

What type of idiot (looking at you, Britney Greiner) is still in Russia on business or vacation? No flights out of the country or whatever, I get it, but your plan is to hunker down in a hotel and hope for the best? Yeah, nah.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

AWP said:


> As an American, I consider any nation holding one of our citizens to be a very serious matter.
> 
> As a person, if you are an American still in Russia (outside of US gov't business of course), then you are a moron, but I hope an FSB prison isn't too bad.
> 
> What type of idiot (looking at you, Britney Greiner) is still in Russia on business or vacation? No flights out of the country or whatever, I get it, but your plan is to hunker down in a hotel and hope for the best? Yeah, nah.


I generally think the same, but I know that sometimes there are circumstances out of peoples' control.  I don't think many of us expected this to turn into what it is, and there's always denial and willful ignorance at play.  At the same time, if my business or job depended on being in Russia, I'd probably try to stick it out as best I could.  "Why would they take me?  I'm nobody..."


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 14, 2022)

A month before she was arrested, State had already put out the evac order for Americans in Russia.  This was before any Russian forces hit SP. She's there to take Russian Oligarch blood money clearly.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 14, 2022)

Interesting premise.



Has Putin Already Lost?​


> If victory in war is defined by one’s ability to convert tactical and operational gains into strategic victories, then it is becoming increasingly unclear how Putin wins in Ukraine. While Putin may have sought to divide the West, strengthen Russia, and pacify Ukraine, he has failed or is likely to fail at achieving all three of those goals
> 
> Today, Putin sits in a far weaker position than he did before the invasion began. In one fell swoop, his actions brought more American Soldiers to his border, reunified NATO, incited a military response from the EU, broke the traditions of neutrality in Sweden, Finland, and Switzerland (two of the three countries are now considering NATO membership), motivated the Germans to increase their defense spending, shattered illusions of Russian military strength, eroded his domestic support, and crippled the Russian economy. Any hopes Putin had of a follow-on invasion in the Baltics are practically gone. His attack, meant to strengthen his position in the world, has backfired.


----------



## Dame (Mar 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Interesting premise.


Hard agree with this. I just don't see how engaging major corporations in a threat to their intellectual property was anything but stunningly stupid. The Mouse is halting theatrical releases in Russia. Does that mean Putin-the-terriblystupid is going to infringe on their trademarks? Including Star Wars? He has no idea what he's just done. You can seize someone else's storefronts. But IP? That is a huge no-no. Every corporation on the planet now has reason to fight the Russians so it won't happen to them whether they are invested there or not. Why would Vlad send his goons to personally threaten these things? Because he's a child. He thinks the adults don't talk to each other. He thinks he can haz all the lunch moneyz. 
Just remember Vlad, in Soviet Russia, Mouse Mickey's you.


----------



## Dame (Mar 14, 2022)

This is what we'll see in the way of news reports on this. More revelations of Putin thinking he can return to Khrushchevist tactics. They now have a hit list of "enemy countries" from which they will steal IP.
Russia legalises intellectual property piracy


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 14, 2022)

22 Days past SP and the only consistent thing is more dead Russians.


----------



## Kaldak (Mar 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> 22 Days past SP and the only consistent thing is more dead Russians.



As far as we know...remember, propaganda works both ways. Ukrainian deaths are going both ways, the same as Russian.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 15, 2022)

More on the training base.


'I got hit': Canadian volunteer fighter injured in Russian missile strike at Ukraine base


----------



## Ex3 (Mar 15, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> A month before she was arrested, State had already put out the evac order for Americans in Russia.  This was before any Russian forces hit SP. She's there to take Russian Oligarch blood money clearly.


She was detained on Feb 17th, the US didn't tell Americans to leave Russia until March 5th. She has played professionally in Russia since 2014, so she probably felt pretty comfortable being there. And I don't think anyone expected the shitshow we're in the middle of, so I don't think it's fair to blame her for her situation.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 15, 2022)

There's also this.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503737123261800452


----------



## JedisonsDad (Mar 15, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> There's also this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503737123261800452


I’m sorry if I sound insensitive to him, and maybe I’m reading this wrong, but to me it sounds like he realized war isn’t call of duty, and he regrets it, so he deserted and hid under the international Red Cross, possibly compromising their access and status.


----------



## Kaldak (Mar 15, 2022)

. Will watch in full.


----------



## 757 (Mar 15, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> There's also this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503737123261800452



If true, sounds like the Ukrainians are trying to replicate what the Russians did to the Germans at Stalingrad, if necessary, around Kiev. Really reminded me of this movie scene specifically with regard to the lack of equipment and the threat of being shot.


----------



## AWP (Mar 15, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m sorry if I sound insensitive to him, and maybe I’m reading this wrong, but to me it sounds like he realized war isn’t call of duty, and he regrets it, so he deserted and hid under the international Red Cross, possibly compromising their access and status.



I called this early on and reality did not disappoint.


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 15, 2022)

757 said:


> If true, sounds like the Ukrainians are trying to replicate what the Russians did to the Germans at Stalingrad, if necessary, around Kiev. Really reminded me of this movie scene specifically with regard to the lack of equipment and the threat of being shot.


That was the exact scene I was thinking of.


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 16, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m sorry if I sound insensitive to him, and maybe I’m reading this wrong, but to me it sounds like he realized war isn’t call of duty, and he regrets it, so he deserted and hid under the international Red Cross, possibly compromising their access and status.


Also possible that he was former military and bought into the idea that Ukraine was going to provide weapons and ammo before sending them out to the front lines. 

Also possible that this is all just propaganda meant to keep people from volunteering. 

Also possible that he is from 1st Civ Div Camp Couch located in moms basement. Point is we don't know what we don't know and can only guess.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 16, 2022)

Just because this cannot get any more surreal or weird:

Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 16, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m sorry if I sound insensitive to him, and maybe I’m reading this wrong, but to me it sounds like he realized war isn’t call of duty, and he regrets it, so he deserted and hid under the international Red Cross, possibly compromising their access and status.



This smacks of the need for a Babylon Bee headline, something like "US Marines and Soldiers go to Ukraine to fight, only to find out they were instructed for form at 0400 for a 0630 weapons draw" or "People go to Ukraine to fight, only to stand around for 90% of the time."

Call of War indeed.  I have zero sympathy for people going over there then deciding it's not their cup of tea....


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> This smacks of the need for a Babylon Bee headline, something like "US Marines and Soldiers go to Ukraine to fight, only to find out they were instructed for form at 0400 for a 0630 weapons draw" or "People go to Ukraine to fight, only to stand around for 90% of the time."
> 
> Call of War indeed.  I have zero sympathy for people going over there then deciding it's not their cup of tea....


Hm, this might be the next Article 107 News article.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 16, 2022)




----------



## Devildoc (Mar 16, 2022)




----------



## Blizzard (Mar 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Just because this cannot get any more surreal or weird:
> 
> Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions


Can't get any more surreal or weird, really? Ask and you shall receive:
Russian MP wanted Putin to fire nuclear missile at America to 'send a message'


> _Russian Duma member Yevgeny Alexeyevich Fyodorov has claimed America would not retaliate if Russia fired a ballistic missile at them, with casualties of roughly 10,000 predicted by the politician.
> 
> A warped Russian politician has called on Vladimir Putin to launch "a ballistic missile" at the Nevada test range in America to "send a message".
> 
> ...



Evidently, batshit crazy is the one thing there's no shortage of these days.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 16, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Can't get any more surreal or weird, really? Ask and you shall receive:
> Russian MP wanted Putin to fire nuclear missile at America to 'send a message'
> 
> Evidently, batshit crazy is the one thing there's no shortage of these days.



You know, in my biz you learn to _NOT_ say "I've seen everything," because the very next shift someone shows up with munitions up the ol' bung hole.  I am learning the same thing with this Ukraine-Russia fiasco.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 16, 2022)

Did Baghdad Bob get a new job with Russia lately? Just asking for a friend.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 16, 2022)

We allowed Iran to bomb and kill us for 20 years in Iraq. I only recall one strike against an Iranian and it was 14 years too late. The Russian politician isn’t that far off.


----------



## AWP (Mar 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Just because this cannot get any more surreal or weird:
> 
> Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions



Fortunately, Sarah Palin can act as our early warning system. “I can see the invasion fleet from my house.”


----------



## Grunt (Mar 16, 2022)

I suspect the war is about to end since I just read this headline on Fox..."Biden condemns Putin in harshest way since Russia unleashed devastation on Ukraine".

Yep...it's only a matter of hours or maybe days at the most....


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 16, 2022)

Russians now up to 4 Generals KIA in less than 3 weeks:
Four Russian Generals Killed in Three Weeks Show Moscow’s Vulnerabilities in Ukraine


----------



## CQB (Mar 16, 2022)

A piece on the cyber front. 

Cyber in the raw


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 16, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Russians now up to 4 Generals KIA in less than 3 weeks:
> Four Russian Generals Killed in Three Weeks Show Moscow’s Vulnerabilities in Ukraine



Taken from a different source: 

Analysts believe that around 20 generals are leading Russian operations in Ukraine, meaning that if all the reported deaths are confirmed, one fifth of Russia's generals have been killed in action.

Sauce: Fourth Russian general killed in Ukraine - Zelensky - BBC News


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 16, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504185604774535168
Ukrainians got in a good hit on some parked Russian air assets yesterday.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 16, 2022)

I don't know anything about tanks but I do know about mud...and that's a shit ton of mud:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502287487552606209


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 16, 2022)

Russia taking it hard.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504212154085482502


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 16, 2022)




----------



## AWP (Mar 16, 2022)

I had a better response but that has a stupid looking emoji so…


----------



## AWP (Mar 16, 2022)

For those paying closer attention to the maps than I am, are the Soviets advancing, stalled, or fighting for mere yards at a time? The “claw” around Kyiv looks little changed from a week ago. For that matter, the assessed territory taken by the Sovs appears to have advanced by only a few miles in some areas over the last week. Their ammo burn rate must be off the charts too.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 16, 2022)

Congress is starting to provide a lot of pressure on the guy in the chair to actually do something.  Apparently the wheels are starting to turn...

Biden admin will provide Ukraine killer drones called Switchblades


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 16, 2022)

I have a very difficult time to believe this is true. However, if it is, the Russian military sucks donkey dick. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504179421208625156


----------



## AWP (Mar 16, 2022)

George Patton is rolling over in his grave. He could probably take even the 3rd ID all the way to Moscow.


----------



## DA SWO (Mar 16, 2022)

Wish I could spend more time here, life is hectic atm.



ThunderHorse said:


> So I guess Ukraine and State have been negotiating this Mig-29 deal since the Russians crossed SP and Ukraine began losing airframes.  I'm unsurprised that State actually gets a deal over the line DoD then mucks it up. What a goat rope.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501336450012528647


With regards to the MiG's, EU VP (Socialist from Spain) scuttled the deal with his tweet, as a WW Kosovo vet I am not surprised that the traitor is from Spain.


RackMaster said:


> This is a big blow to the volunteer troops.  Includes 134 hospitalized.     Global News: Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border. Russian missile strikes kill 35 at Ukrainian military training base near Polish border - National | Globalnews.ca


One report said the Russian EW tracked non UK cell phones to a location and attacked, Score 1 for the FB Selfie generation.

Putin is losing, has he ever lost?  I poo-pood the nuke talk, but now hope his generals refuse the order if he truely goes off the rails.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 17, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> I have a very difficult time to believe this is true. However, if it is, the Russian military sucks donkey dick.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504179421208625156


Eh, not that hard to see. Their LOG is shit and if you look at conflicts they've been in...they haven't done so hot. First Chechen War? Ass got kicked. Second one? They just used heavy artillery and leveled cities and then faced a 15 year insurgency which stopped being covered in the west at all. 

Then they started bombing people indiscriminately in Syria.


----------



## Muppet (Mar 17, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> View attachment 39092



So God damned accurate sir. Bunch of ilk that buys into the media propaganda.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 17, 2022)

Looks like someone's going to have some explaining to do when they can't pay off their debt.

Citigroup Sits Between Russia and a Possible Bond Default


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 17, 2022)

Russians training pudgy, tattooed honeypots to target enlisted

/S


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 18, 2022)




----------



## AWP (Mar 18, 2022)

I disagree with “drag us into a war” premise ( though it may be true). I 100% agree that almost no one is critically thinking. About anything. Perhaps ever.


----------



## Archangel27 (Mar 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> View attachment 39105



Not really sure what he's supposed to do here.  He's the president and he has a duty towards his people.  Of course he's trying to do everything he can to ensure that he stays in power (if you're cynical) or Ukraine can fend off foreign invaders.  I'm not a big fan of seeing an encore of Afghanistan 2021.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 18, 2022)

Right now, politics has nothing to with him trying to save his country from a hostile force. What would our response had been toward him if he had fled the country, like many leaders do, when Ukraine was first invaded. He gets blamed for not wearing a suit when addressing our congress. Don't know about you but I don't notice any of our officers dressing up during a combat situation. I see a war leader. If Ukraine drives out Russia, then let's see the people's choice.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 18, 2022)

I'm not hating President Zelenskyy for what he's doing.  I like to think if I were in his situation I'd be doing the exact same thing. But he is absolutely trying to "drag us into war" with Russia.  That's the only thing that is going to save his nation.

If any of you haven't watched his speech to Congress, you should.  It's masterful.  One of the first things he requests is a no-fly zone.  A no-fly zone is going to put US planes (because that's probably all they would be, not NATO) in direct combat with Russia.  And then we're at war.

Something else to think about is the "why."  Who determines who gets to address Congress?  I think it's the Speaker of the House.  And the Speaker wouldn't have done it without the approval of the President.  And neither would have allowed it to happen if they didn't already know what Zelenskyy was going to say.  So knowing what he wanted, they let it proceed, which means it serves their interests.

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here.  But yeah, if you haven't watched his speech yet do it.  A whole lot to unpack there.


----------



## AWP (Mar 18, 2022)

If this war has taught me nothing else, it is this:

I am so glad to see shit being blow up that isn’t accompanied by shouts of “Allah u akbar.”


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 18, 2022)

I don't blame or criticize Zelensky at all for trying to defend his people. He's literally pleading for their survival.

That said, NATO clearly understands what's at stake and continues to play it smart. They've checked themselves a few times already.

Despite the massive amount of propaganda surrounding this conflict, I still it look at through this lens: Who was the aggressor? Putin owns this 100%. If he does initiate this directive, no one knows who Zelensky is.  He didn't ask for it. It's also clear now that it was simply a matter of time before Putin took this step. Fortunately, it was against a neighbor that wasn't willing to roll over.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 18, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I don't blame or criticize Zelensky at all for trying to defend his people. He's literally pleading for their survival.
> 
> That said, NATO clearly understands what's at stake and continues to play it smart. They've checked themselves a few times already.
> 
> Despite the massive amount of propaganda surrounding this conflict, I still it look at through this lens: Who was the aggressor? Putin owns this 100%. If he does initiate this directive, no one knows who Zelensky is.  He didn't ask for it. It's also clear now that it was simply a matter of time before Putin took this step. Fortunately, it was against a neighbor that wasn't willing to roll over.


It's very refreshing to me to see people actually willing to fight for their homes instead of demanding someone else do it for them.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 18, 2022)

This is a good watch.  

We're screwed and there's a lot of politicians, not just American; that own this. They created this environment that Putin felt safe enough to invade Ukraine.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 18, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This is a good watch.
> 
> We're screwed and there's a lot of politicians, not just American; that own this. They created this environment that Putin felt safe enough to invade Ukraine.



We're still allowing them to pay their debts...so yeah, it's pretty wild until you cut off the spice. 

Also, this thing is insane: 

Russian K-52 Alligator Engages Ukrainian Ground Forces Before Being Brought Down


----------



## CQB (Mar 18, 2022)

Drones are having a measure of success. 

Specialist Ukrainian drone unit picks off invading Russian forces as they sleep


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 18, 2022)

This
Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia


----------



## Muppet (Mar 18, 2022)

This man is preaching!


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 18, 2022)

Wait, is this a thing?  If I get an electric car, someone who is not me can deactivate my car remotely without my permission?
Elon Musk asked by Twitter users to deactivate all Teslas in Russia, following the country's invasion of Ukraine​
Elon Musk asked by Twitter users to deactivate all Teslas in Russia, following the country's invasion of Ukraine


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 18, 2022)

I have a funny feeling most new cars can do that these days- I know they can turn features off and on if you don't subscribe (yes, that's right) to them. 

This is will just get me onto a rant about the decline of the manual gearbox though.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 18, 2022)

Russia has hit Lviv...going all in on the non-military targets eh? 

Russia has attacked Lviv. Here's why the western city is so important to Ukraine's defense


----------



## Totentanz (Mar 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Wait, is this a thing?  If I get an electric car, someone who is not me can deactivate my car remotely without my permission?
> Elon Musk asked by Twitter users to deactivate all Teslas in Russia, following the country's invasion of Ukraine​
> Elon Musk asked by Twitter users to deactivate all Teslas in Russia, following the country's invasion of Ukraine



Ford can send updates over the air to some of their vehicles (and not just electric vehicles, IIRC F-150 and Bronco were discussed as well as the Mach-E). An OTA “update” that shuts things down isn’t a far leap.


----------



## Grunt (Mar 18, 2022)

As a dictator who only cares about staying in power, Putin cannot be trusted concerning anything that exits his pie-hole. He has no issue with attacking civilians and/or anyone/anything he wants. He doesn't differentiate between civilian and military - he only sees targets to destroy.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 18, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> Ford can send updates over the air to some of their vehicles (and not just electric vehicles, IIRC F-150 and Bronco were discussed as well as the Mach-E). An OTA “update” that shuts things down isn’t a far leap.


Well, I mean I'm a Jeep guy so I'm used to vehicles that randomly shut themselves off, but at least it's not being directed by someone else ;)


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 19, 2022)

Seems Russians may've lost numero cinco:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504945518115532806
Between the reported KIAs and dismissals, that's a lot of leadership turnover in just ~24 days.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> It's very refreshing to me to see people actually willing to fight for their homes instead of demanding someone else do it for them.


How many millions have fled though? They aren’t all fighting for it but will certainly celebrate if they can draw Russia out to a standstill.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 19, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Seems Russians may've lost numero cinco:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504945518115532806
> Between the reported KIAs and dismissals, that's a lot of leadership turnover in just ~24 days.


Number 6?

Andriy Paliy was killed in Ukraine - what did the Russian captain of the Black Sea Fleet do - Jaun News English


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 19, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> How many millions have fled though? They aren’t all fighting for it but will certainly celebrate if they can draw Russia out to a standstill.



Just because they're not fighting doesn't necessarily mean they're not contributing.


----------



## TLDR20 (Mar 19, 2022)

Does anyone want to talk about the impeachment? I see we are talking about Hunter Biden? Maybe a different thread? Seems appropriate to at least bring up Trump trying to extort Zelensky at some point.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 19, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> How many millions have fled though?


Fewer than the Afghans and Iraqis?


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 19, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Just because they're not fighting doesn't necessarily mean they're not contributing.



I don’t think most of them are supplying the front lines with food or any other type support.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Fewer than the Afghans and Iraqis?



Not disagreeing with this comment. A decent chunk of Ukrainian’s are willing to fight for their country.


----------



## CPL B USMC (Mar 19, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Does anyone want to talk about the impeachment? I see we are talking about Hunter Biden? Maybe a different thread? Seems appropriate to at least bring up Trump trying to extort Zelensky at some point.


Probably a different thread.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 20, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Number 6?
> 
> Andriy Paliy was killed in Ukraine - what did the Russian captain of the Black Sea Fleet do - Jaun News English


----------



## AWP (Mar 20, 2022)

Why are these generals so far forward or how are they being whacked? “Lead your army to victory or don’t come back”? We didn’t lose this many in Vietnam.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 20, 2022)

This is a pretty bold statement.

CNN: Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could mean 'a third World War'.
Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could mean 'a third World War'


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 20, 2022)

AWP said:


> Why are these generals so far forward or how are they being whacked? “Lead your army to victory or don’t come back”? We didn’t lose this many in Vietnam.



Part of it is the secure comms of the Russian Army are non-existent and they're using Ukrainian Cell phones, not their own cell phones, to communicate.



BloodStripe said:


> How many millions have fled though? They aren’t all fighting for it but will certainly celebrate if they can draw Russia out to a standstill.


Just like every other war, ever? You also have tens of thousands of Ukrainians who held residence outside the country returning and volunteering under the general mobilization order. The vast majority of the evacuees are women and children. 

Just don't understand the tone of your comments.  

__________

Saw a claim somewhere that what helped Russia affect their siege of Mariupol to it's current state of affairs was that half the police force defected to Russia, this rings similar to when the Berkut were being disbanded and Russia invaded Crimea.  The entire Berkut unit defected to Russia.  These police have supposedly forcefully evacuated 5-10,000 people from Mariupol to Russia.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

AWP said:


> Why are these generals so far forward or how are they being whacked? “Lead your army to victory or don’t come back”? We didn’t lose this many in Vietnam.


I suspect it's because just like our military, the commanders position themselves where they can best control their formations, which in turn is tied to communication.  When your comms suck, or when your units are otherwise not doing what you want them to do (or are doing a bunch of shit you DON'T want them to do), then commanders need to move forward to exercise more control.  Our commanders are back on the FOBs because they have great NCOs and officers in the field, tremendous situational awareness thanks to intel, and the best military comms in the world.  Otherwise there'd probably be a lot of brigade (and above) commanders in places where they could get got.

Russia will probably spin this like it's heroically "leading from the front," but I suspect it's because poor leadership, poor comms, poor morale, and very shitty mission accomplishment are driving this.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

John Mearsheimer is one of the leading voices of the "Realism" school of International Relations thought.  I think this piece by him is probably more nuanced than the headline indicates (writers rarely get to pick their headlines).  The article is paywalled but understanding his thoughts on Realism, I can probably guess what it says:  national interests, driven by survival, trump everything.

John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 20, 2022)

The Clash approve of this new version.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)




----------



## Blizzard (Mar 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> John Mearsheimer is one of the leading voices of the "Realism" school of International Relations thought.  I think this piece by him is probably more nuanced than the headline indicates (writers rarely get to pick their headlines).  The article is paywalled but understanding his thoughts on Realism, I can probably guess what it says:  national interests, driven by survival, trump everything.
> 
> John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis


I'm curious as to the argument in the rest of his article but, on the surface, I reject his premise that the West is responsible for Ukraine -- unless he's arguing about West inaction/failure to keep Putin in check when he moved on Georgia and other Russian aggressions over the past couple decades.  Putin has retained power in what can only be described as a dubious fashion for the better part of 2 decades.  His actions have always given pause.  

Putin certainly played a role in a lot of Russia's economic success, particularly early in his rise to power, but he also holds sole responsibility for it's many failures and missed opportunities.  Ukraine wasn't inevitable, save for Putin's desire to make it so.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'm curious as to the argument in the rest of his article but, on the surface, I reject his premise that the West is responsible for Ukraine -- unless he's arguing about West inaction/failure to keep Putin in check when he moved on Georgia and other Russian aggressions over the past couple decades.  Putin has retained power in what can only be described as a dubious fashion for the better part of 2 decades.  His actions have always given pause.
> 
> Putin certainly played a role in a lot of Russia's economic success, particularly early in his rise to power, but he also holds sole responsibility for it's many failures and missed opportunities.  Ukraine wasn't inevitable, save for Putin's desire to make it so.


I suspect that his argument is that states are wholly motivated by national interests and survival, and that NATO "encroachment" on significant countries like Georgia and Ukraine threaten Russia's national interests, something we knew or should have known for years (in fact I think Mearshimer wrote that a few years back).  Therefore, by our relentless march east, we're threatening Russia's core interests, so of course they're going to react militarily.  

In retrospect we may have been better off supporting the push to get Ukraine into the EU instead of NATO.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I suspect that his argument is that states are wholly motivated by national interests and survival, and that NATO "encroachment" on significant countries like Georgia and Ukraine threaten Russia's national interests, something we knew or should have known for years (in fact I think Mearshimer wrote that a few years back).  Therefore, by our relentless march east, we're threatening Russia's core interests, so of course they're going to react militarily.
> 
> In retrospect we may have been better off supporting the push to get Ukraine into the EU instead of NATO.


I always find the argument about encroaching NATO to be a bit of an odd one, especially if one believes reports Putin once inquired about Russia joining NATO -- who knows the context or reality of that discussion.  Regardless, if a state had no ulterior motive, why would it object to a neighbor state bolstering it's own defenses, especially if Russia really considered NATO to be somewhat of a paper tiger.  And how ridiculous is the buffer argument if Ukraine falls?  It will be under direct Russian control with bordering NATO countries.  In addition, in the modern age, why would this necessarily require a military response?  None of the angles really holds much water.

The real fact that appears apparent is that Putin probably always envisioned a reunification of sorts.  The issue was how to frame it; deal with Chechnya first, then Georgia/South Ossetia, then Crimea...all a slow boil.


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 20, 2022)

They inquired because they were taking the piss, saying if it wasn't an anti-Russian operation then surely Russia could also join? 

So just a principled statement more than anything. I thought it was funny.


----------



## Kaldak (Mar 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I suspect that his argument is that states are wholly motivated by national interests and survival, and that NATO "encroachment" on significant countries like Georgia and Ukraine threaten Russia's national interests, something we knew or should have known for years (in fact I think Mearshimer wrote that a few years back).  Therefore, by our relentless march east, we're threatening Russia's core interests, so of course they're going to react militarily.
> 
> In retrospect we may have been better off supporting the push to get Ukraine into the EU instead of NATO.



I have a subscription. I'll read it and get back to you and @Blizzard .


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I always find the argument about encroaching NATO to be a bit of an odd one, especially if one believes reports Putin once inquired about Russia joining NATO -- who knows the context or reality of that discussion.  Regardless, *if a state had no ulterior motive, why would it object to a neighbor state bolstering it's own defenses,* especially if Russia really considered NATO to be somewhat of a paper tiger.  And how ridiculous is the buffer argument if Ukraine falls?  It will be under direct Russian control with bordering NATO countries.  Why, in the modern age, would it also require a military response?  None of the angles really holds much water.
> 
> The real fact that appears apparent is that Putin probably always envisioned a reunification of sorts.  The issue was how to frame it; deal with Chechnya first, then Georgia/South Ossetia, then Crimea...all a slow boil.


It's a classic case of *the security dilemma*, which is also a key component of realism.  To sum up the security dilemma: because power is zero-sum in an anarchical international system, the measures one state takes to make themselves _more_ secure inevitably make other nations _less _secure.  It's the same reason the Russians got super-upset over Star Wars; it was a purely defensive measure, but the Russians didn't have something comparable to shoot down any missiles we shot at them.

...and EVERY state ALWAYS has ulterior motives.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

Here's a readable article Mearshimer published about Ukraine back in 2014 that sums up his rationale:

https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Here's a readable article Mearshimer published about Ukraine back in 2014 that sums up his rationale:
> 
> https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf



He did this in a video lecture at University of Chicago.  I just reject his premise and this comes off as an apologist for Russia/Putin.  Because Putin views Ukraine in a way that's not founded in reality, a country whose elections he's interfered with consistently over a long period, the West should abandon "westernizing" it.  Even though the people of Ukraine have clearly demonstrated that they want to integrated into the European system. 

But here's the video


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 20, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> He did this in a video lecture at University of Chicago.  I just reject his premise and this comes off as an apologist for Russia/Putin.  Because Putin views Ukraine in a way that's not founded in reality, a country whose elections he's interfered with consistently over a long period, the West should abandon "westernizing" it.  Even though the people of Ukraine have clearly demonstrated that they want to integrated into the European system.
> 
> But here's the video


Yeah, he has a lot of controversial takes.  One of the ones I disagree with is that allowing *Iran to have nukes* will make them a more-responsible state.  I kind of think he's right on this one.  I don't blame the West--this is on Putin--but I think it's easier to understand why Putin did it because of Mearshimer's explanation.


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 20, 2022)

Putin has been talking a lot about reuniting the Rus the last long time, if a target state/area gets NATO membership it scuttles that.


----------



## Topkick (Mar 20, 2022)

Raksasa Kotor said:


> Cav people - talk to me about tracks on asphalt/concrete. If I recall correctly, if a tracked vehicle is going to be using road surfaces they have track pads installed to minimize damage to the road surface and increase traction - is that accurate?


Track comes with the track pads installed so that armored vehicles are operational on and/or off road.


----------



## Topkick (Mar 20, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Putin has been talking a lot about reuniting the Rus the last long time, if a target state/area gets NATO membership it scuttles that.


Right or wrong, I think his perception is that somebody (NATO) is creeping around in his backyard. He is concerned.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

Ukraine rejects Russian demand to surrender Mariupol.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505751945016926213
Russian troops open fire on protest in Kherson and kill protestors. Also used trucks to run some protestors over. 

Ukraine war: Russian troops open fire on protesters in Kherson


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 21, 2022)

Putin’s Miscalculation? Clausewitz’s Trinity and the War in Ukraine​
*link*


"“My view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be,” said Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. “Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part because they have fought bravely and honorably and are doing the right thing.”

Why is it so difficult to predict the outcome of the current conflict in Ukraine? Why has President Vladimir Putin underestimated the will and tenacity of the Ukrainian people to resist the Russian invasion as well as the overwhelming global condemnation of his “Special Operation?""


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

Since 2014, Ukraine has held 5 drafts. Of the 5 drafts, 60,000 draftees saw deployment to Donbas. Is the figure that is quoted. No figure on the number of volunteers that saw deployment to  Donbas.  And through that entire period you had a US advising mission. But I suppose unlike in Afghanistan we didn't attempt to build an Army in our image, what we did do was buttress and upskill them.

But they also had a history as a people, of Central governance, and literacy.

But the biggest surprise in all this is not how capable Ukraine is, it is how incapable Russia is.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 21, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Since 2014, Ukraine has held 5 drafts. Of the 5 drafts, 60,000 draftees saw deployment to Donbas. Is the figure that is quoted. No figure on the number of volunteers that saw deployment to  Donbas.  And through that entire period you had a US advising mission. But I suppose unlike in Afghanistan we didn't attempt to build an Army in our image, what we did do was buttress and upskill them.
> 
> But they also had* a history as a people,* of Central governance, and literacy.
> 
> But the biggest surprise in all this is not how capable Ukraine is, it is how incapable Russia is.


I think your bolded point is the most significant.  My experience was that the Afghans, and to a lesser extent the Iraqis, never really saw themselves as a coherent whole.  The Afghans saw themselves as Pashtun or Hazari or Uzbek or Tajik or whatever, and the Iraqis as Shia/Sunni/Kurd.  No doubt there are significant cultural and ethnic divisions in Ukraine (ethnic Russian/ethnic Ukrainian) but there was enough "we are Ukriane" there to maintain coherence.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 21, 2022)

I have heard that Zelensky has moved all media under the state and has done away with opposition parties.  Anyone confirm that?


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 21, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I think your bolded point is the most significant.  My experience was that the Afghans, and to a lesser extent the Iraqis, never really saw themselves as a coherent whole.  The Afghans saw themselves as Pashtun or Hazari or Uzbek or Tajik or whatever, and the Iraqis as Shia/Sunni/Kurd.  No doubt there are significant cultural and ethnic divisions in Ukraine (ethnic Russian/ethnic Ukrainian) but there was enough "we are Ukriane" there to maintain coherence.



Absolutely.  Much of the ME/near east is tribal, definitely not 'collective' like the cultures in the west.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 21, 2022)

Here's about the media.

Zelensky signs decree to combine national TV channels into one platform

How Zelensky's administration moves to dismantle press freedom in Ukraine

The TV channels were owned by his predecessor. 

Ukraine opposition blasts president as court freezes predecessor's assets


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 21, 2022)

This YouTube channel has some interesting content, interviewing Russians on the street.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I have heard that Zelensky has moved all media under the state and has done away with opposition parties.  Anyone confirm that?



Pro-Russian political parties have been suspended until the war is complete. These parties only hold 44 seats of the 450 in the parliament.  But he's not banning them completely either, they just can't execute political organizing activities...the largest is led by an Oligarch who's homies with Putin.  The co-chair of that party is also godfather to Putin's daughter...

Ukraine suspends 11 political parties with links to Russia

Only source on nationalizing TV I've seen is from "The Week".

Zelensky nationalizes TV news and restricts opposition parties

From a war footing perspective, the country has been under martial for three weeks.  And Nationalizing TV broadcasts for addresses makes sense.  Generally we had some form of that here for a very long time, every time the president spoke, all TV stations cut programming and went to that speech.  No idea if it is the same or not.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 21, 2022)

There's always questions on the casualty figures but this one is particularly interesting given the Russian source:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505972650786672648
In effect, it appears Russia has the lost the equivalent to 1 1/2 U.S. Army divisions in less than a month. 😳  ...and it's strongly suggested that may still be a low number.

I've read a number of viewpoints as to contributing factors behind these huge losses. In addition to some of the more obvious things, like poor equipment, training, and tactics, another recurring theme is lack of medical support and casualty evac. One source questioned whether anyone had even seen any Russian equipment with red crosses on it.  Supposedly, the 40 mile convoy outside Kiev may've contained a lot of med supplies before it was hit. Losing that would further inhibit Russia's ability to treat and evac wounded.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> There's always questions on the casualty figures but this one is particularly interesting given the Russian source:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505972650786672648
> In effect, it appears Russia has the lost the equivalent to 1 1/2 U.S. Army divisions in less than a month. 😳  ...and it's strongly suggested that may still be a low number.
> ...



There were quite a few vehicles captured early in the war that had red crosses on them.  Only for them to be loaded with ammunition.


----------



## AWP (Mar 21, 2022)

Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade were about 20k; that’s 2,000 a year for Marines and Cav Scouts.

Now they have lost half of that in about a month?

I want to believe those numbers are true, but I can’t.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 21, 2022)

Stats from Reuters:


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

AWP said:


> Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade were about 20k; that’s 2,000 a year for Marines and Cav Scouts.
> 
> Now they have lost half of that in about a month?
> 
> I want to believe those numbers are true, but I can’t.


Since that's Pravda, which is effectively a Kremlin controlled tabloid, I'd say those numbers would be concerning for them.  Because we're not at 10% of deployed combat power is gone.  On Kremlin numbers...so the real number on the Russian math is approaching Ukraine/US maths.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 21, 2022)

AWP said:


> Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade were about 20k; that’s 2,000 a year for Marines and Cav Scouts.
> 
> Now they have lost half of that in about a month?
> 
> I want to believe those numbers are true, but I can’t.


Yeah, I don't know. Different type of fight  from what we've seen the past 20 years.  The numbers do seem pretty staggering.  

These were numbers Ukraine pumped out as of 15 March:


Compare this to Vietnam losses:  Official numbers put U.S. losses at ~58K over 20 years. ~40K were combat losses with largest losses occurring between '65 - '71.  Our heaviest year of loss was '68 with ~16K causalities. 

Point is, Russia appears to be approaching those numbers in just one month!

This doesn't even take into account deserters, which may be a significant number as well.


----------



## AWP (Mar 21, 2022)

Those are WWII loses. That’s staggering and this no Great Patriotic War no matter what connections Putin tries to create.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 21, 2022)

My instinct is to reduce the reported casualties to about 1/3.  But even then, those are some big numbers for a campaign that was supposed to be a cake walk.  

It would make me happy to learn that those reported numbers are correct.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 21, 2022)

It appears Russia is gaining some headway in the southern part of the country. They are using the port in Maripoul to unload equipment from ships.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 21, 2022)

Biden said today that Russia may begin targeting U.S. companies with cyber warfare. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505973896864055297


----------



## AWP (Mar 21, 2022)

If this war “forces” you to harden your network:
1) you suck and your IT staff should be set on fire. Senior leadership should be boiled alive.
2) we’ve been under attack for awhile now, so it is about to get worse? Shit…
3) we need good cyber folks behind a desk. Go fuck yourself and a PT test. Also, cash money to find good people. We’re playing catch-up.
4) letters of marquee were a thing once. Time to hire some pirates to plunder on behalf of our country.
5) seems like some of the medically retired “undesirables” could contribute if given a chance. See #3 above.

The solutions are right freaking there, low hanging fruit.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 21, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> It appears Russia is gaining some headway in the southern part of the country. They are using the port in Maripoul to unload equipment from ships.


Background brief today did mention increased naval activity in Black Sea but he didn't believe it to be a precursor to an amphibious assault:
Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing

He notes a great deal of fighting around Mariupol but it hasn't fallen.  Overall Russians not making much progress.  The underlying theme seems to be: we don't really know what the hell they're doing and doesn't seem like they do either.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 21, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Background brief today did mention increased naval activity in Black Sea but he didn't believe it to be a precursor to an amphibious assault:
> Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing
> 
> He notes a great deal of fighting around Mariupol but it hasn't fallen.  Overall Russians not making much progress.  The underlying theme seems to be: we don't really know what the hell they're doing and doesn't seem like they do either.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505872843283832835


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 21, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505872843283832835


Have to use the ports because the rail lines are all cut.  It should be easy for them to make progress, they are massed.  Ukrainian Army isn't massed anywhere, for obvious reasons.  Except that it hasn't been "easy".  Although since Putin is deploying Rosgovardia to Ukraine (and in Mariupol) they may make some headway since you know...nothing like more bodies to a lack of training problem.  Why are you internal police better equipped and trained than your actual Army I wonder? 


Anyways, apparently WWII is still going. Japan protests Russian halt to World War Two peace treaty talks


----------



## AWP (Mar 22, 2022)

All the Soviets are doing is unloading more fodder for Javs and NLAWs. Their air force is neutered and without PGMs which places them in MANPADS country. Their ground troops are conscripts with a broken log system. The Sovs spent a lot of defense dollars on aircraft, so their ground troops don't have the best stuff out there. Putin's turning on the FSB which is ironic given his background. They've effectively lost a division's worth of manpower in killed and wounded plus (based on Blizzard's infographic above):

10 companies of armor or about 2.5 battalions (one armored brigade or the armor strength of almost 3 rifle brigades
31 companies of mech/ motorized infantry (support vehicles are mixed among those numbers) or 8-10 battalions (support vehicles are kind of hard to pin down)
6 mlrs batteries (a motorized rifle regiment has 3 batteries)

So, yeah, if you take the above numbers (which are probably on the high side), the Sovs have lost a full division or half of a combined arms army. 1 out of every 15 soldiers is a casualty?

Again, those are WWII casualty numbers.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 22, 2022)

@AWP fuck your number 3 and 5.  Oh and fuck you.  They'd have to dangle a fuck load of money to make it worth my time.  In the mean time, I'll wait for the Russians to cross the Arctic and shoot them from the comfort of my living room.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 22, 2022)

Russia’s Only Prototype T-80UM2 Tank Was Destroyed In Ukraine

I vaguely remember this being touted back in the late 90’s. I also never realized it never went beyond the first unit. I’m not really surprised to see it in Ukraine though. Military vehicles are purpose built and I’d imagine we too would use prototype vehicles if they shared most the same parts as others (airplanes aside).


----------



## AWP (Mar 22, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> @AWP fuck your number 3 and 5.  Oh and fuck you.  They'd have to dangle a fuck load of money to make it worth my time.  In the mean time, I'll wait for the Russians to cross the Arctic and shoot them from the comfort of my living room.



I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic.  If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic.  If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.



I completely agree with you and we're all playing catch up.   But I'm still not taking any calls.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic.  If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.



@Teufel can speak better to this, but a few years ago this is the direction that the Marine Corps wanted to go (at least partially) with their cyber command. I’m not sure if it actually took off though. 

https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Agenci...er-Division/Marine-Corps-Cyber-Auxiliary/FAQ/


----------



## Ex3 (Mar 22, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Here's a readable article Mearshimer published about Ukraine back in 2014 that sums up his rationale:
> 
> https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf


This bit is telling, especially since the article was written in 2014. 



> Besides, even if it wanted to, Russia lacks the capability to easily conquer and annex eastern Ukraine, much less the entire country.
> Roughly 15 million people—one-third of Ukraine’s population—live between the Dnieper River, which bisects the country, and the Russian border. An overwhelming majority of those people want to remain part of Ukraine and would surely resist a Russian occupation. Furthermore, Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turning into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine. Moscow is also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions.


----------



## AWP (Mar 22, 2022)

Russia is allegedly incapable of producing new tanks due to a lack of foreign-made components:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506015569283149826
Even if China stepped in to provide whatever is missing, the burn rate on Russian armor makes this a pretty big deal...if true.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic.  If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.


So, if your cyber force dies in the chair drinking double big gulps it's totes ok?


----------



## Ex3 (Mar 22, 2022)

With regard to the Russian casualties, do y'all think their next of kin are being notified? I'm thinking not otherwise the mothers of Russia would be storming the Kremlin.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 22, 2022)

Ex3 said:


> With regard to the Russian casualties, do y'all think their next of kin are being notified? I'm thinking not otherwise the mothers of Russia would be storming the Kremlin.



Ukraine made a website for repatriation of dead Russian soldiers.  Great IO, but I think Russia turned the global access to internet off a week ago.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 22, 2022)

So I guess pissing off the Chinese is on the table.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506001259907665936


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 22, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> So I guess pissing off the Chinese is on the table.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506001259907665936


Should revoke 100% of their student visas and all "visiting" professors visas too.


----------



## AWP (Mar 22, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So, if your cyber force dies in the chair drinking double big gulps it's totes ok?



Your sarcasm is noted and I’ll raise you a bag of Doritos or perhaps a donut.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> If this war “forces” you to harden your network:
> 1) you suck and your IT staff should be set on fire. Senior leadership should be boiled alive.
> 2) we’ve been under attack for awhile now, so it is about to get worse? Shit…
> 3) we need good cyber folks behind a desk. Go fuck yourself and a PT test. Also, cash money to find good people. We’re playing catch-up.
> ...



Maybe related. More to follow where the hack originated to follow. 

Factbox: What is Okta, hacked authentication services provider


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 22, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ukraine made a website for repatriation of dead Russian soldiers.  Great IO, but I think Russia turned the global access to internet off a week ago.


An ADM I have a lot of respect for was a Captain when he and I discussed over bourbon one night what he would like to see changed. His response was to figure out how to hire the stereotypical nerd that lives in mom’s basement but can hack the hardest targets. But he wanted them in uniform, PT and weight standards be dammed.


----------



## Ex3 (Mar 22, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ukraine made a website for repatriation of dead Russian soldiers.  Great IO, but I think Russia turned the global access to internet off a week ago.


I knew this. Wondering if the Russian military is doing the notifying like the US would.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 22, 2022)

Ex3 said:


> I knew this. Wondering if the Russian military is doing the notifying like the US would.


Well, on a similar note, there's this (again, take it for what it's worth):
Morgues are overflowing with corpses as Russia secretly ships thousands of dead soldiers through Belarus to disguise death toll in Ukraine, report says

I also read somewhere, take it all with a grain of salt, that Russians were issued their own personal cremation kits, as opposed to transporting home in body bags. I'll see of I can find a link later, but that can't help with identification and notification.


----------



## CQB (Mar 22, 2022)

Read down a bit & the conscription age has changed along with issuing Mosin-Nagant rifles. Sucks to be Ivan. 

Institute for the Study of War


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 22, 2022)

Here's the link to the article about Russian mobile crematoriums (not personal cremation kits like I stated earlier):
Putin is going to extreme lengths to hide Russian soldiers who are dying while fighting in Ukraine

Still, don't families know when Ivan never returns home?


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 22, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Here's the link to the article about Russian mobile crematoriums (not personal cremation kits like I stated earlier):
> Putin is going to extreme lengths to hide Russian soldiers who are dying while fighting in Ukraine
> 
> Still, don't families know when Ivan never returns home?



2015 bruddah. I doubt those, if true, could keep up these days.


----------



## Ex3 (Mar 22, 2022)

CQB said:


> Read down a bit & the conscription age has changed along with issuing Mosin-Nagant rifles. Sucks to be Ivan.
> 
> Institute for the Study of War


I have a young Russian friend who works in the same industry I do. He got the hell out of there after the first few days of the war because he feared he would be conscripted.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 22, 2022)

One of quite a few Canadian's that went.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wali-alive-despite-russian-disinformation-1.6393191


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 23, 2022)

Wolverines!

Amazing story.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506404268441485322


----------



## Jaknight (Mar 23, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Wolverines!
> 
> Amazing story.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506404268441485322


Damn it’s so surreal like watching some documentary from History channel


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 23, 2022)

An interesting interview on what IT geeks are bringing to the war.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 23, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Damn it’s so surreal like watching some documentary from History channel


In real time.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 23, 2022)

Russia: “How do the Ukrainian’s know where we are?!”

Also Russia: Under Fire, Out of Fuel, No Air Support   What Intercepted Russian Radio Chatter Reveals


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 24, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505872843283832835


About those Russian ships offloading in the pier...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506883694396645379


----------



## Teufel (Mar 24, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> @Teufel can speak better to this, but a few years ago this is the direction that the Marine Corps wanted to go (at least partially) with their cyber command. I’m not sure if it actually took off though.
> 
> https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Agenci...er-Division/Marine-Corps-Cyber-Auxiliary/FAQ/


Just hire DOD civilians. Problem solved.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 24, 2022)

No wonder Putin is taking all comers for this war.  They've already lost 40k bodies in combat power between KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs.



> NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance.
> 
> The North Atlantic Treaty Organization calculates the figure based on information provided by Ukrainian authorities and information obtained from Russia--both officially and unintentionally, the official said.
> 
> ...



NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> No wonder Putin is taking all comers for this war.  They've already lost 40k bodies in combat power between KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs.
> 
> 
> 
> NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine


That's... a lot.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> No wonder Putin is taking all comers for this war.  They've already lost 40k bodies in combat power between KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs.
> 
> 
> 
> NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine


One month. 🤯

What is Putin's off ramp at this point? This should be a huge concern and priority for everyone. I'm not seeing anything about any sr. level discussions with Russia, certainly not anything from the Biden administration.  Who is talking with Russia?


----------



## AWP (Mar 24, 2022)

If they started with 190k involved with the "special operation" and 40k of those are killed, wounded, or "other", then that's...seriously? Roughly 1 in 5? Even bringing in replacements you have...1 in 6? 1 in 7 tops?

A 1 in 7 chance of being killed, wounded, or captured? Hell, the only people with a higher statistical casualty rate are those with knowledge that could lead to the indictment of Hillary Clinton.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 24, 2022)

After doing a bunch of reading on the Rosgovardiya, my beer drinking opinion is that the only thing they're similar to is the Waffen SS.  Rosgovardiya is the same size as the Russian Army, except no tanks (but APCs and IFVs).  From videos and images they seem better equipped and trained. 

Also from a Unity of Command standpoint...this all makes no sense.

These are all separate branches of the Russian Armed Forces:

Russian Ground Forces
Russian Airborne Forces (VDV)
Russian Special Operations Forces
Logistical Support of the Russian Armed Forces

Putin has also deployed parts of the Chechen Army, which sit outside of the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces, and Chechen Rosgovardiya which is separate from the Russian one. 

Haven't seen any reports of the Russian Border Service troops being deployed yet.  But this is a helluva mess, they clearly need a CFLC stood up to manage this.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 24, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Who is talking with Russia?


Guess nobody is.

Pentagon: Russian defense officials have declined to take multiple calls from US counterparts


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 24, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> One month. 🤯
> 
> What is Putin's off ramp at this point? This should be a huge concern and priority for everyone. I'm not seeing anything about any sr. level discussions with Russia, certainly not anything from the Biden administration.  Who is talking with Russia?


Macron has mediated about 10 calls. Bennett tried to do some stuff, but comes off as a Russian stooge.  Then Erdogan hosted two rounds of talks in Turkey.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Macron has mediated about 10 calls. Bennett tried to do some stuff, but comes off as a Russian stooge.  Then Erdogan hosted two rounds of talks in Turkey.


Is the U.S. even in the room?  

From a foreign policy perspective, seems kind of important but maybe that's just me.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 24, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Guess nobody is.
> 
> Pentagon: Russian defense officials have declined to take multiple calls from US counterparts


It Russia isn't taking their calls, then the Biden administration needs to find someone they will speak with...and not Kamala.

Wonder what the latest is from China on the topic as well.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 24, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Is the U.S. even in the room?
> 
> From a foreign policy perspective, seems kind of important but maybe that's just me.



I think the only ones left are Turkey and France.  That isn't to say either are Friendly.  French Parliament has been pretty belligerent and very supportive of Ukraine.  Arms shipments, troop deployments to neighboring countries.  Turkey delivering more TB2s etc.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 24, 2022)

Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage

Maybe the Commandant was on to something without even realizing the full impact of why he removed tanks.


----------



## Cookie_ (Mar 24, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Is the U.S. even in the room?
> 
> From a foreign policy perspective, seems kind of important but maybe that's just me.



Forgive the site, but this article is closet to the paywalled Washington Post one I wanted to share.

Biden lets European leaders take center stage against Russia

The main idea is that the US has been talking with allies but not taking center stage so as to avoid this being a "US vs. Russia" but "EU vs. Russia" conflict. 
If it gets other countries into NATO/increases the actual defense spending of EU countries (Germany) then I'd call it a good strategy so far.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 24, 2022)

This is a story I want to hear more about:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507040799393001478
One of the big questions has been "where's Russia's air force?" 

Report's say Ukrainians are flying 5 - 10 sorties per day, there are/were regular dogfights and they're vastly outnumbered (like 5 to 1). They don't have a lot of jets left (~55), but have solid tactics and continue to punch above their weight.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 24, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Forgive the site, but this article is closet to the paywalled Washington Post one I wanted to share.
> 
> Biden lets European leaders take center stage against Russia
> 
> ...


Eh, Biden picked up the red phone and no one picked up.

_______

ETA: New video of burning Russian "alligator" ship. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506952240715776009


----------



## Dame (Mar 25, 2022)

My favorite war prize so far.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506673602015473670


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 25, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> This is a story I want to hear more about:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507040799393001478
> One of the big questions has been "where's Russia's air force?"
> ...


It’s astonishing to me that at this point I’m the war Ukraine’s Air Force consists of more than zero airframes.


----------



## Totentanz (Mar 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> It’s astonishing to me that at this point I’m the war Ukraine’s Air Force consists of more than zero airframes.


I would have thought a flurry of GLCMs and AGMs would have thoroughly crushed them a week into the fighting. If not the airframes, the airfields and support facilities.


----------



## TLDR20 (Mar 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> It’s astonishing to me that at this point I’m the war Ukraine’s Air Force consists of more than zero airframes.



Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid. 

From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 25, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid.
> 
> From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.


I agree.  I also wonder how much of it is attributable to A) the extraordinary about of foreign assistance the Ukrainians are getting; the kind of stuff that doesn't make the news and/or B) maybe the Russians are a whole lot serious about this whole thing than we think


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 25, 2022)

Unlucky number 7?:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507362085860261892


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 25, 2022)

And now a Colonel. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507397435450138627


----------



## TLDR20 (Mar 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I agree.  I also wonder how much of it is attributable to A) the extraordinary about of foreign assistance the Ukrainians are getting; the kind of stuff that doesn't make the news and/or B) maybe the Russians are a whole lot serious about this whole thing than we think



Yeah but the Ukrainians have working cell phones and internet and power. I feel like those would have been the first things targeted in a US invasion….


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 25, 2022)

This is interesting...https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/russian-troops-killed-their-own-commander_uk_623dc61de4b0bcc5b4784bf8


----------



## Totentanz (Mar 25, 2022)

I


TLDR20 said:


> Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid.
> 
> From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.



Your guess is as good as mine but I’d lean toward “not being employed” vs “overestimated”.


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 25, 2022)

https://www.thenationalnews.com/wor...=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648232307

35% attrition rate for a Russian General in Ukraine.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 25, 2022)

Attached are two documents related to the current discussion produced by the Ranger Regiment's MI battalion. They are completely unclassified.  I found them very interesting and useful.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 25, 2022)

All 450 Russian State Duma members (Putin's power base) sanctioned. From the US Treasury:

Russia-related Designations; Publication of new Frequently Asked Question


----------



## AWP (Mar 25, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> I
> 
> 
> Your guess is as good as mine but I’d lean toward “not being employed” vs “overestimated”.


Which is odd considering how much the Soviets* used GPS jamming in Syria.

* - I’m bringing “Soviets” back because that’s what they are these days. Let’s not kid ourselves. When Poo Poo is gone we can upgrade them to “Russians.”


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 25, 2022)

Ummm… did the President just tell our troops in Poland that they are going to be in Ukraine?


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Ummm… did the President just tell our troops in Poland that they are going to be in Ukraine?



You and his PR team never know what he might say


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Attached are two documents related to the current discussion produced by the Ranger Regiment's MI battalion. They are completely unclassified.  I found them very interesting and useful.



Thanks for those. I enjoyed reading them.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 25, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> You and his PR team never know what he might say
> 
> View attachment 39157


*Rip-Its


----------



## Dame (Mar 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Attached are two documents related to the current discussion produced by the Ranger Regiment's MI battalion. They are completely unclassified.  I found them very interesting and useful.


These are awesome. Not entirely accurate IMHO ("Despite having the most modern equipment available...") but very good intel. Thanks for posting!


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 26, 2022)

I suspect the context is to them not to, say, the US.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Ummm… did the President just tell our troops in Poland that they are going to be in Ukraine?


Just about everything in his 10 min address is pretty much a WTFO:


----------



## Gunz (Mar 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> No wonder Putin is taking all comers for this war.  They've already lost 40k bodies in combat power between KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs.
> 
> 
> 
> NATO: Up to 40,000 Russian Troops Killed, Wounded, Taken Prisoner or Missing in Ukraine



Those NATO EKIA numbers don’t sound right. Even low end 7000 dead Russians in what, three weeks? That even tops Iwo Jima-type KIA numbers—5000 dead Americans in 29 days.

And high end 15000? Jesus, if the Ukrainians are that good, and the Russians that bad…


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 26, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> *Rip-Its


A guy from my company during my last deployment to Iraq posted that. He’s currently in Ukraine helping out as a medic. I won’t post his exact location but he isn’t that far from Kyiv.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 26, 2022)

AWP said:


> When Poo Poo is gone we can upgrade them to “Russians.”


Maybe...but probably not...


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 26, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Yeah but the Ukrainians have working cell phones and internet and power. I feel like those would have been the first things targeted in a US invasion….



Well, Elon put Starlink online in Ukraine in less than what 48 hours after the decision was made and sent a couple hundred repeaters into the country.  Their network for internet and cellular service is probably more robust than any other European country right now. 



Marauder06 said:


> Ummm… did the President just tell our troops in Poland that they are going to be in Ukraine?



There is going to be a second impeachment trial regarding Ukraine...



Gunz said:


> Those NATO EKIA numbers don’t sound right. Even low end 7000 dead Russians in what, three weeks? That even tops Iwo Jima-type KIA numbers—5000 dead Americans in 29 days.
> 
> And high end 15000? Jesus, if the Ukrainians are that good, and the Russians that bad…



Pravda, which is a tabloid but wholly controlled by the Kremlin, had Russian KIA at 9k on Tuesday.


----------



## Dame (Mar 26, 2022)

Well the article about the soldiers killing their commander was interesting in the Why. 

So let's say 80% of Soviet military funds end up in the pockets of command and oligarchs according to Bill Browder. Soldiers don't have enough in the way of pay to send home. So what do they do? Sell the gas out of the tanks. The tanks get stalled when the commanders order the soldiers to invade "fur realz" cuz no one is telling the truth. So they stall. All of them. They are sitting ducks. Soldiers blame command.

I'll stop there cuz the rest is conjecture by yours truly but the one word that comes to mind is corruption. All the way up to Putin and his "other" wife and kids. Interesting transcript of a podcast below. Bill Browder is now my new gotta-read author.
The man who fought to sanction Putin and Russian oligarchs, with Bill Browder


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Mar 27, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Just about everything in his 10 min address is pretty much a WTFO:


He looks feeble and weak. Surprised he didn't mention his crackhead son and his business dealing in the UKR.

Maybe the 82nd didn't let Joes sniff any kids, hence the lackluster performance.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 27, 2022)

I know it's the Daily Mail but did anyone see this?  The ties to the Biden's and Democrat's as a whole; has been obvious.   Well unless you're in the Zelensky is a Saint club.

Hunter Biden helped secure millions for biotech research Ukraine


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 27, 2022)

I read the article on the "Russian general deliberately run over by own troops."  To me it reads like a whoooole lot of speculation and confirmation bias.  In the article I read, the only person attributing the incident to malice was an anonymous "official," which based on the article may have been Ukrainian.

Historically, disease and nonbattle injuries have more of an affect on battle readiness than combat. Anyone who works around vehicles knows how dangerous it is, even in the motor pool. In combat, those dangers are multiplied. If this guy got hit by a vehicle, IMO it was most likely an accident. I've got to imagine that if you deliberately drive a track over someone you're more likely to kill them outright than give them a crippling wound.

I'm happy to hear the war is going poorly for the Russians, and IMO the fewer leaders Russia has on the ground, the better it is for our national interests.  I'm willing to change my mind later with additional information, but for now I just find this particular story the latest in sketchy stories that people want to believe is true without solid substantiation.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 27, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> He looks feeble and weak. Surprised he didn't mention his crackhead son and his business dealing in the UKR.
> 
> Maybe the 82nd didn't let Joes sniff any kids, hence the lackluster performance.



The White House spent the last 5 days walking this back. They said Trump was unstable. Ok fine. 46 is a Senile and dementia riddled old man, if Milley was unwilling to follow orders under Trump, then he better be unwilling to follow this guy. Except he'll actually face Disciplinary action this time because that's how things work these days. 🙃🤷‍♂️


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 27, 2022)

I don't want to turn this into a huge bash on the President rant but I do believe his comments the past couple days have been incredibly unhelpful, to say the least.  Whether deliberate or impromptu, his rhetoric has definitely fanned the flames.  

It started with his new world order comments and a self proclamation the U.S. will lead it.  It's gone downhill from there. The Russians already weren't taking his calls.  Does he think they will now? Macron warned him not to call Putin a butcher, etc. because he was still talking with him.  As I've said before, there needs to be an off-ramp. That doesn't give Putin a pass but it not everything needs to be verbalized either.

The address to the 82nd was interesting as well.  It was all over the place.  It even felt odd from the start. SECDEF ask for additional applause just came off weird followed by an awkward attempt at a joke by the President.  But no harm there.  However, he then went into his new world order mode, including comments toward Xi and China.  Then talked about the soldiers actually being in Ukraine - is he sending them there? He repeated this idea.  He then spent a couple minutes reminiscing about his son, Beau, which really had no connection to the rest of the content.  It was odd to me.  Certainly not constructive or inspiring.

There needs to be a lot less rhetoric right now. It doesn't present strength nor does it project confidence the way I believe Biden thinks it does. It simply raises more concerns.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 27, 2022)

I just had a fascinating Zoom discussion with a young Ukrainian man who is still in Ukraine.  He tried to flee the country but was unable to get out before the "military-aged men have to stay" mandate.  He is not fighting and has no plans to do so.  Interesting insights from an "on the ground" perspective.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 27, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I don't want to turn this into a huge bash on the President rant but I do believe his comments the past couple days have been incredibly unhelpful, to say the least.  Whether deliberate or impromptu, his rhetoric has definitely fanned the flames.
> 
> It started with his new world order comments and a self proclamation the U.S. will lead it.  It's gone downhill from there. The Russians already weren't taking his calls.  Does he think they will now? Macron warned him not to call Putin a butcher, etc. because he was still talking with him.  As I've said before, there needs to be an off-ramp. That doesn't give Putin a pass but it not everything needs to be verbalized either.
> 
> ...



This whole administration is a joke.  If this was the last one we'd have been through 5 SecDefs, NSAs, and SecStates, by now and they'd all have their own book deal.  And then let's get to the actual words spilling out in the verbal diarrhea, talk about pure escalation.  Are we ready for that? I don't think the population is.  How about you shitcan Llloyd and sign off on the Mig-29 deal Blinken negotiated?


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Mar 27, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I know it's the Daily Mail but did anyone see this?  The ties to the Biden's and Democrat's as a whole; has been obvious.   Well unless you're in the Zelensky is a Saint club.
> 
> Hunter Biden helped secure millions for biotech research Ukraine


Yeah, there is so much shady shit going on there. Zelensky being made a saint by the same people who covered up the laptop from hell, political corruption, and the current admins ties to China, is suspect. 

Where there is smoke there is fire.


ThunderHorse said:


> The White House spent the last 5 days walking this back. They said Trump was unstable. Ok fine. 46 is a Senile and dementia riddled old man, if Milley was unwilling to follow orders under Trump, then he better be unwilling to follow this guy. Except he'll actually face Disciplinary action this time because that's how things work these days. 🙃🤷‍♂️


Well, we all know that there are rules for us serfs and then there are the rules for the SJW, rainbow haired, kid sniffing DC bureaucrats. 

Everyone knows this is all a sham. The people in our halls of power are little better than the Russian Oligarchs, only they can't be as abusive as the peasants here are armed. 



Blizzard said:


> I don't want to turn this into a huge bash on the President rant but I do believe his comments the past couple days have been incredibly unhelpful, to say the least.  Whether deliberate or impromptu, his rhetoric has definitely fanned the flames.
> 
> It started with his new world order comments and a self proclamation the U.S. will lead it.  It's gone downhill from there. The Russians already weren't taking his calls.  Does he think they will now? Macron warned him not to call Putin a butcher, etc. because he was still talking with him.  As I've said before, there needs to be an off-ramp. That doesn't give Putin a pass but it not everything needs to be verbalized either.
> 
> ...


Not to sound like a pessimist, but what are the chances that boots are out on the ground in an attempt to keep this admin in power. With all the crazy stuff that's coming out I see the current admin and their cronies doing everything they can to keep their ill gotten power.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 28, 2022)

Well now. . .


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508465158703796231


----------



## Gunz (Mar 28, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well now. . .
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508465158703796231



I suspect FSB teams are shadowing most of these sanctioned fatcats...just in case they entertain any ideas about bucking the agenda. It's not surprising...but it is revealing. Putin is obviously fantastically paranoid of any possible betrayals or faint hearts.

So a warning. Next stop_ vyshaya mera..._Highest Measure. The old KGB euphemism for whacking somebody.


----------



## AWP (Mar 28, 2022)

That Polonium ain't gonna' inject itself.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 28, 2022)

Not Russian-Ukraine, but related.  In the late 90s I went to a national security symposium at a university, and on the panel was a former KGB officer (as was a CIA officer and some others).  Someone asked the question about how the US approached intelligence and espionage after the fall of the Curtain vice the USSR/Russia.

The CIA guy basically admitted that when the Soviet Union dissolved they cut back their intel activities as much as 90% to focus elsewhere; after all, the US and USSR were friends now.  The KGB guy said they doubled down in their efforts with the US because everyone liked them and trusted them.  He said the intel haul was a goldmine compared to the USSR days.

Just difference of perspectives and insight to how the Russian mind works.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Not Russian-Ukraine, but related.  In the late 90s I went to a national security symposium at a university, and on the panel was a former KGB officer (as was a CIA officer and some others).  Someone asked the question about how the US approached intelligence and espionage after the fall of the Curtain vice the USSR/Russia.
> 
> The CIA guy basically admitted that when the Soviet Union dissolved they cut back their intel activities as much as 90% to focus elsewhere; after all, the US and USSR were friends now.  The KGB guy said they doubled down in their efforts with the US because everyone liked them and trusted them.  He said the intel haul was a goldmine compared to the USSR days.
> 
> Just difference of perspectives and insight to how the Russian mind works.



Well, both KGB _and_ CIA were critically compromised before the Soviet collapse: because of Gordievsky, the MI6 mole; and Aldrich Ames, the CIA traitor. So both outfits were reeling. The KGB got smacked down again after its failed coup during the Gorbachev years, so when the collapse came KGB activity fell into low gear.

It revved up under Putin. It's been through a few sets of different initials...it's just a new version of the same old thing.


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Mar 28, 2022)

Time to rewatch "The Americans"!!!!!!


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 28, 2022)

SpongeBob*24 said:


> Time to rewatch "The Americans"!!!!!!



The best part of that show were the sex scenes.... but it was a pretty good show.


----------



## DA SWO (Mar 29, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> I would have thought a flurry of GLCMs and AGMs would have thoroughly crushed them a week into the fighting. If not the airframes, the airfields and support facilities.





AWP said:


> Which is odd considering how much the Soviets* used GPS jamming in Syria.
> 
> * - I’m bringing “Soviets” back because that’s what they are these days. Let’s not kid ourselves. When Poo Poo is gone we can upgrade them to “Russians.”


Can we jam their system?  Maybe that's why Growlers are going to Europe.


Marauder06 said:


> Ummm… did the President just tell our troops in Poland that they are going to be in Ukraine?


Maybe, I am hoping he was just trying to say some day when you are in a war zone you will see this, otherwise that sucks.  Dems would be hard-pressed to justify anything more then Peace Enforcement/Keeping.


Gunz said:


> Those NATO EKIA numbers don’t sound right. Even low end 7000 dead Russians in what, three weeks? That even tops Iwo Jima-type KIA numbers—5000 dead Americans in 29 days.
> 
> And high end 15000? Jesus, if the Ukrainians are that good, and the Russians that bad…


I just cut the Uk numbers in half.  I don't see a ton of aircraft losses either, are stingers ineffective? not being used? or just misused?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 29, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I just cut the Uk numbers in half.  I don't see a ton of aircraft losses either, are stingers ineffective? not being used? or just misused?



Stingers are pretty old and out of production in the US. Maybe it's all of what you suggest.


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 29, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I just cut the Uk numbers in half.  I don't see a ton of aircraft losses either, are stingers ineffective? not being used? or just misused?


Latest numbers from Ukraine:

While probably on the high side, these numbers are generally in the ballpark of other sources I've seen as well

As for air defense/air combat, check out this article:
DISPATCH: Interview With a Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot

All things considered, appears they've been very effective. Air space is still contested virtually throughout the country.  No one expected that at this juncture.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

Do we have any air defense in the US against nuclear ICBMs? Out of curiosity could we stop the missiles, or will we just be screwed?


----------



## AWP (Mar 30, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Do we have any air defense in the US against nuclear ICBMs? Out of curiosity could we stop the missiles, or will we just be screwed?



We die. 

No nation has the tech in sufficient quantities to defend its country. We have some capability, but there are so many limitations (time, "tyranny of distance", number of assets) related to a successful defense that there's no question about how the story ends. Israel is probably the only nation with a chance, but even the Iron Dome can be overwhelmed through volume. Plus, Israel has a helluva lot smaller area to defend.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

AWP said:


> We die.
> 
> No nation has the tech in sufficient quantities to defend its country. We have some capability, but there are so many limitations (time, "tyranny of distance", number of assets) related to a successful defense that there's no question about how the story ends. Israel is probably the only nation with a chance, but even the Iron Dome can be overwhelmed through volume. Plus, Israel has a helluva lot smaller area to defend.


Well, that's a bummer. Thank you for the response, Sir.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 30, 2022)

Even if we had the capability to defend against ICBMs, and we do not, we certainly can't counter the submarine launched weapons or any tactical size weapons that can be brought into the US.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Even if we had the capability to defend against ICBMs, and we do not, we certainly can't counter the submarine launched weapons or any tactical size weapons that can be brought into the US.


Lose lose situation then. I live near the Redstone arsenal now. I imagine I won't know what hit me. 

The threat of nuclear war with everything that is going on really makes me sad. I wish we could do away with nukes and go back to blades and bullets or maybe convince a bunch of assholes to chill out. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 30, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Lose lose situation then. I live near the Redstone arsenal now. I imagine I won't know what hit me.
> 
> The threat of nuclear war with everything that is going on really makes me sad. I wish we could do away with nukes and go back to blades and bullets or maybe convince a bunch of assholes to chill out. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.


I have family in that area.  Lovely.  Lots of jobs.  Decent housing prices.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I have family in that area.  Lovely.  Lots of jobs.  Decent housing prices.


Yes Sir, we really like it here as well. I have a shooting club right down the road as well. 

Not me in the video.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 30, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Yes Sir, we really like it here as well. I have a shooting club right down the road as well.
> 
> Not me in the video.


I think my sister's house is literally adjacent to the club's property.


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 30, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I have family in that area.  Lovely.  Lots of jobs.  Decent housing prices.



I love northern Alabama and southern Alabama.  The middle part not so much.  Huntsville is a great town.

@Bypass , if there ever is a for-real nuclear exchange none of us are getting out unscathed.  The difference between now and before the Iron Curtain fell is nuclear proliferation and the ability to transport small, tactical nukes.  I am not so old as to remember the Cold War heyday of nuclear drills, but in the mid-90s when I as a paramedic and did CBRNE stuff, I did see a map of our area of Tier 1 targets, Tier 2, etc., I think all the way to Tier 8 or something.  Not just military, but C3, infrastructure, high-tech nodes, major transportation nodes... pretty much the entire eastern 2/3 of NC would be annihilated.    I would think the small, portable tactical nuke would not result in a worldwide trade of nuclear weapons, but I am not invited to the party for decision making.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I think my sister's house is literally adjacent to the club's property.


Awesome!! It is a nice area there. Definitely out in the country.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

I have been trying to find out if the US still has the Davy Crockett Weapons System in its inventory, but thus far I still can't get a word from anyone though I have sent my request thru 2 Congressmen. This was a system I was a member of back in the 60s to be used against the Russians. Nucks can come in any size or shapes.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I love northern Alabama and southern Alabama.  The middle part not so much.  Huntsville is a great town.
> 
> @Bypass , if there ever is a for-real nuclear exchange none of us are getting out unscathed.  The difference between now and before the Iron Curtain fell is nuclear proliferation and the ability to transport small, tactical nukes.  I am not so old as to remember the Cold War heyday of nuclear drills, but in the mid-90s when I as a paramedic and did CBRNE stuff, I did see a map of our area of Tier 1 targets, Tier 2, etc., I think all the way to Tier 8 or something.  Not just military, but C3, infrastructure, high-tech nodes, major transportation nodes... pretty much the entire eastern 2/3 of NC would be annihilated.    I would think the small, portable tactical nuke would not result in a worldwide trade of nuclear weapons, but I am not invited to the party for decision making.


Yes Sir, It really is nice here. I imagine if the blast doesn't get us the fall out will. My Niece and nephew are in the prime of their lives and I hate it that there is even a possibility of nuclear war.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I have been trying to find out if the US still has the Davy Crockett Weapons System in its inventory, but thus far I still can't get a word from anyone though I have sent my request thru 2 Congressmen. This was a system I was a member of back in the 60s to be used against the Russians. Nucks can come in any size or shapes.


So you're a Vietnam Veteran? Yesterday was Vietnam veterans day. You know you guys were the first ones to welcome me and my friends home. Thank you Sir.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I have been trying to find out if the US still has the Davy Crockett Weapons System in its inventory, but thus far I still can't get a word from anyone though I have sent my request thru 2 Congressmen. This was a system I was a member of back in the 60s to be used against the Russians. Nucks can come in any size or shapes.


I'm pretty sure it got phased out decades ago.  I think my first exposure to one was at the Infantry Museum at Benning.  I was like, "I don't think the range and the area of effect add up :) "


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I have been trying to find out if the US still has the Davy Crockett Weapons System in its inventory, but thus far I still can't get a word from anyone though I have sent my request thru 2 Congressmen.


Removed from Europe in 1967, out of the inventory in 1971...https://www.military-history.org/back-to-the-drawing-board/back-to-the-drawing-board-the-davy-crockett-tactical-nuke.htm


----------



## Devildoc (Mar 30, 2022)

Gunz said:


> When I was a kid, there was a Nike Missile launch facility right next to our local high school. It was run by the National Guard. These were interceptor missiles stored underground...the alarm would go off, these big steel doors would open and the launcher would come up. IIRC each launcher had four missiles.
> 
> About a mile away there was the Nike radar tracking facility. When Nike missiles were declared obsolete and the facilities shut down, the abandoned radar facility became our underage drinking spot. There was a 30-foot observation tower with a steel ladder and a concrete slab on top, open to the sky. We'd climb up there with our cans of Budweiser and drink.  A miracle none of us fell to our deaths.
> 
> ...



There was a county in which I worked EMS that had a large, multi-fenced, 'compound' that some of the locals knew about, but many other people did not.  Because I am nosy about cold war relics I snooped and snooped for information, turns out it was (is?) owned by AT&T but run by the government for a C3 location in the event of nuclear war.

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/the-mysterious-military-compound.html?chrome=1


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> Removed from Europe in 1967, out of the inventory in 1971...https://www.military-history.org/back-to-the-drawing-board/back-to-the-drawing-board-the-davy-crockett-tactical-nuke.htm


I understand what has been put out there but having been assigned to a Davy Crockett platoon, I have some questions. Army denied the system existed until 2005 when spotter rounds were found. Said the system was retired and not destroyed. Contacted one congressman, before he left office, and requested he find out for me. He and I talked about it a number of times. Ran into him just before he retired and asked if he had heard anything back from the Army. He got real serious and told me he had never heard of the system. I then contacted his replacement and got a letter back that it had been sent to the Army. Waited for over a year and inquired. Congressman said to resubmit because the Army said they had lost my initial inquiry. Have resubmitted and still waiting for an answer to my questions. Makes you wonder why the delay.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I understand what has been put out there but having been assigned to a Davy Crockett platoon, I have some questions. Army denied the system existed until 2005 when spotter rounds were found. Said the system was retired and not destroyed. Contacted one congressman, before he left office, and requested he find out for me. He and I talked about it a number of times. Ran into him just before he retired and asked if he had heard anything back from the Army. He got real serious and told me he had never heard of the system. I then contacted his replacement and got a letter back that it had been sent to the Army. Waited for over a year and inquired. Congressman said to resubmit because the Army said they had lost my initial inquiry. Have resubmitted and still waiting for an answer to my questions. Makes you wonder why the delay.


TS+ clearance probably required. Interesting perspective you having been there done that though.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 30, 2022)

It wouldn't surprise me if one day, we found out that there has been multiple upgraded iterations since 1971.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> It wouldn't surprise me if one day, we found out that there has been multiple upgraded iterations since 1971.


Yep, No telling what the world hasn't seen and has no knowledge of existing. We all seem to be in a big hurry to exterminate ourselves.

It is said the final battle will be at Armageddon but if you ask me it'll be two radiation soaked guys having a shot of Jim Beam saying here's to the end of the world..


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

This was me and the system. That was a training round but does show how easy to transport. Could also be backpacked.


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> This was me and the system. That was a training round but does show how easy to transport. Could also be backpacked.
> 
> View attachment 39198


Wow, how much damage will one of those do?

Edit: A real one.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 30, 2022)

Bypass said:


> TS+ clearance probably required. Interesting perspective you having been there done that though.


If the Davy Crockett system had the same security protocols as SADM (I think they should since it used the same warhead), then a TS clearance and admittance to the Personal Reliability Program (AR50-5) was required...;there may have been a few folks with a Secret, but it would have been based on a Background Investigation instead of a NAC...I got real familiar with this as a Nuclear Surety Officer back in the day...


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

We were considered a suicide unit as the flight range was a mile and a half for the M28 and 2 1/2 for the M29. Not much time to load the equipment and get out of there.


----------



## AWP (Mar 30, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Well, aren't you Mr Cheerful this morning.



I'm Mr. Reality or Mr. Pragmatic. You want cheerful? Go find a Walmart greeter. 

I was in grade school in the 80's and of course everyone assumed WWIII was right around the corner. All of the doomsday/ end of the world/ Red Dawn stuff out there. Just the sort of thing for an Elementary/ Junior High kid to think about...

Like...5th or 6th grade, the topic came up in a class, one of the movies had just released, and being near Jacksonville, FL we all knew or figured how it would end. Of course some kids thought being 20-30 miles away from a base made it okay (at the time J-ville had 5 within 50 miles, Cecil, NAS Jax, NAS Mayport, King's Bay with our boomers, NS Mayport, and the Int'l airport with the Air Guard). Bombs don't destroy something that far away! Ah, youth and optimism.

Our teacher, Mrs. Rodgers, had a mental break from being a teacher and dropped her facade into human being mode. She had a few sentences on fallout and then "all of the trains and interstates and other stuff here" before catching herself a minute later.

That's the first time I really ever thought about infrastructure as a target. Yeah, I was a special kind of kid, but that's for a therapist.

Anyway, a metric shitton of Americans, preppers included who think they can ride it out, are clueless because of infrastructure. What? We think the Chinese and Soviets don't know where our major telecommunication centers are located? Air traffic control? Interstate exchanges? Importance of a bridge we think nothing about? Railroad marshalling yards? Power, water treatment, the effects of an EMP on these locales....and the list goes on?

Sheeeeit. Patriot please.

Americans don't think about targeting lists or priorities. You might think your city is okay, but if the bad guys decide to spend a warhead on your telecom hub instead of one 100 miles away because...reasons, it doesn't matter. Hell, we do it. I know a guy with Masters in Transportation Engineering or some nonsense...the degree you think is what you use to become a manager at UPS or a shipping company, who works for an OGA. He analyses (we haven't spoken in well over a decade) transportation networks and all of their variables: how many vehicles an hour. Weight of the vehicles. Weather effects. Choke points. You name it.

Other nations do this and the knowledge you have to determine an adversary's capabilities is the same knowledge you can use to determine your vulnerabilities. Nuking a port or telecom hub may be a better use of that warhead than nuking a military base. We don't know the numbers.

Sorry for the rant. I'm dealing with a lot of stupid at work today and needed the diversion. Goddamn, I hate contractors. Wait...

Warm regards,
Amazing With People


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> I have been trying to find out if the US still has the Davy Crockett Weapons System in its inventory, but thus far I still can't get a word from anyone though I have sent my request thru 2 Congressmen. This was a system I was a member of back in the 60s to be used against the Russians. Nucks can come in any size or shapes.



Last warhead was deactivated in 1971.

Atomic Annie was done in 1963.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Last warhead was deactivated in 1971.


In 2005 they said the warheads were retired. There is a difference in being retired and destroyed. That was one of my questions to the Army. Was the Davy Crockett still in their system. Thus far crickets.


----------



## Steve1839 (Mar 30, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> In 2005 they said the warheads were retired. There is a difference in being retired and destroyed. That was one of my questions to the Army. Was the Davy Crockett still in their system. Thus far crickets.


The "shelf life" of a warhead was considered to be around 25-30 years...most of the munitions for SADM and Davy Crockett were built in the late 50s and early 60s, so they would have been around the end of their useful life in the 80s and 90s...from what I've been able to find out, they are disassembled at a plant in Texas when they are retired...https://www.globalissues.org/news/2020/06/16/26525


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

Steve1839 said:


> The "shelf life" of a warhead was considered to be around 25-30 years...most of the munitions for SADM and Davy Crockett were built in the late 50s and early 60s, so they would have been around the end of their useful life in the 80s and 90s...from what I've been able to find out, they are disassembled at a plant in Texas when they are retired...https://www.globalissues.org/news/2020/06/16/26525


At least you are giving me some info and thanks for it. One of my other questions to them was why were no former Davy Crockett soldiers ever tested for radiation as the spotter rounds were 92% depleted uranium. My understanding is that DU then was stronger than what is used today. Of course I know the answer to that and that is, they don't know who was assigned. Back then there was no school for the system. All personnel were MOS 11C and assigned from different Infantry units like I was. They were then later sent to Vietnam and lost in the shuffle. Nothing in any of my records show that I was assigned to a Davy Crockett unit other than I do have a set of orders that show I was reassigned from one unit to them. When I left, I have a set of orders saying I was leaving HHC 2d Brigade 25th Inf Div.


----------



## LimaPanther (Mar 30, 2022)

Let's get back on the Ukraine subject. Got off it didn't we?


----------



## Gunz (Mar 30, 2022)

Threads devolve. It's science.

The US has sent 100 Switchblade Tactical Missile System UAVs to Ukraine. The 300 Model for smaller targets, the 600 Model can be used against tanks.

Switchblade® 300 - Tactical Missile System - Air, Sea, Ground | AeroVironment, Inc.


----------



## AWP (Mar 30, 2022)

Make the grass grow.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 30, 2022)

I mean, is it even a ShadowSpear thread if it doesn't get derailed two or three times during its life?


----------



## Blizzard (Mar 30, 2022)

I assume this is real (maybe not?) but if so...😳

And with a trailer? YGBFSM

Where are our EOD members to chime in? @racing_kitty 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509253049440739332


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 30, 2022)

I think I'd be having a very large vodka after that. I'd be somewhat confident doing it without the trailer but with it...!


----------



## Dame (Mar 30, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I think I'd be having a very large vodka after that. I'd be somewhat confident doing it without the trailer but with it...!


Bourbon buddy. Bourbon makes everything funny after the fact.


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 30, 2022)

Dame said:


> Bourbon buddy. Bourbon makes everything funny after the fact.



Can't stand it I'm more of a French brandy kind of guy :)


----------



## AWP (Mar 30, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Can't stand it I'm more of a French brandy kind of guy :)



Show yourself to door.


----------



## SpitfireV (Mar 30, 2022)

AWP said:


> Show yourself to door.



The distillery door maybe.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 30, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I think I'd be having a very large vodka after that. I'd be somewhat confident doing it without the trailer but with it...!


Vodka sucks, unless you use it as hand sanitizer. 



SpitfireV said:


> Can't stand it I'm more of a French brandy kind of guy :)



Love me some 'gnac.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 30, 2022)

Well...this gets muy interesante.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509287796065845250
And the WaPo was able to do some reporting on the forced relocation of people out of Mariupol into Russia.



> RIGA, Latvia — The pro-Russian soldiers from the separatist-controlled area of Donbas arrived one day in mid-March.
> 
> “They just walked into our shelter and said that women and children must leave it,” recounted a young woman who had been hiding with her family in a suburb of the heavily shelled Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. “We asked if it was possible to stay at all, and they said no, that this is the order. We did not know where they were taking us.”
> 
> ...



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/30/ukraine-mariupol-russia-evacuation-filtration/


----------



## Bypass (Mar 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well...this gets muy interesante.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509287796065845250
> ...


Sounds like they got their just desserts.


----------



## racing_kitty (Mar 30, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I assume this is real (maybe not?) but if so...😳
> 
> And with a trailer? YGBFSM
> 
> ...


No way in Hell I’m doing that with a trailer. If they know what their clearances are between the devices and the undercarriage, then pray to St. Barbara that there’s no kind of vibration-sensitive anti-tamper and go for it. I’ll be there with booze and a post-blast.


----------



## Marauder06 (Mar 31, 2022)

tying together a couple of different threads with this meme :)


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 31, 2022)

This guy is an interesting character for a journalist.   The only "mostly unedited" footage, I've seen from the Russian side.  This is footage and interviews some civilians inside Mariupol,  not far from the Azov stronghold.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 31, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I assume this is real (maybe not?) but if so...😳
> 
> And with a trailer? YGBFSM
> 
> ...



That’s the Russian Roulette mine-laying technique.

But why provide a lane? Assuming that’s real, there are enough mines there to block the road completely. And if you’re making the lane for your own military vehicles, you have inordinate faith in the driving abilities of Russian conscript E3s.


----------



## Gunz (Mar 31, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> tying together a couple of different threads with this meme :)
> 
> View attachment 39200



Triple Venn cross-thread points.


----------



## RackMaster (Mar 31, 2022)

Found an interview with the journalist Patrick Lancaster, in Donetsk. Ironically an American in China, interviewing an American in pseudo-Russia.  Apparently he reported from within Crimea and has lived in Donetsk for 8 year's, since the protests and referendum.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 31, 2022)

racing_kitty said:


> No way in Hell I’m doing that with a trailer. If they know what their clearances are between the devices and the undercarriage, then pray to St. Barbara that there’s no kind of vibration-sensitive anti-tamper and go for it. I’ll be there with booze and a post-blast.


I'm just gonna use a MCLC.


----------



## DA SWO (Mar 31, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Do we have any air defense in the US against nuclear ICBMs? Out of curiosity could we stop the missiles, or will we just be screwed?


Limited.  Launchers in Alaska (AKNG) and Vandenburg AFB, CA (CANG?).  Desiged for a small scale (North Korea) attack.  


LimaPanther said:


> In 2005 they said the warheads were retired. There is a difference in being retired and destroyed. That was one of my questions to the Army. Was the Davy Crockett still in their system. Thus far crickets.


DoD ploicy always has been no comment regarding nukes.


ThunderHorse said:


> Vodka sucks, unless you use it as hand sanitizer.
> 
> 
> 
> Love me some 'gnac.


Polish Vokda rocks, you heathen.
BTW the thumbs down was in jest.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 1, 2022)

Damn.  Ukraine now on the offensive _inside_ Russia.  A Doolittle-esque type raid:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509765821454856237
This appears to be the second attack into Belgorod in as many days.  Yesterday was an apparent ammo depot.  These are small, but significant attacks on an already challenged Russian supply line.

The real irony is to hear Russia complaining about Ukraine attacking a fuel depot. Some suggest this could be a false flag, but I don't think so. If that was the case, I'd think they'd choose a school or hospital or something.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 1, 2022)

This has some video of the fuel depot attack.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 1, 2022)

There was an apparent failed or semi-successful helicopter rescue out of Mariupol.  Rumors of everyone from Azov commanders to Western advisors, French, US, UK, Polish and possibly more; numbers around 20.  Some reports say 4 helo's in, 2 shot down, one fell into the sea and 1 the Russians got to.  17 dead and 2 being interrogated.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 1, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I'm just gonna use a MCLC.


Why waste a MCLC when you can apparently just use your feet and kick them out of the way...🙂

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841451164782595


----------



## Devildoc (Apr 1, 2022)

Lol....


----------



## racing_kitty (Apr 1, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Why waste a MCLC when you can apparently just use your feet and kick them out of the way...🙂
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841451164782595


----------



## Gunz (Apr 1, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Why waste a MCLC when you can apparently just use your feet and kick them out of the way...🙂



And do it with your hands in your pockets.


----------



## AWP (Apr 1, 2022)

Gunz said:


> And do it with your hands in your pockets.



Only until the First Sergeant arrives.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 1, 2022)

Gunz said:


> And do it with your hands in your pockets.


Well, if you're going to go, you may as well go on your own terms.

I like that they sent 3 dudes too...because if you're going to go, take your buddies with you. LOL.


----------



## Totentanz (Apr 1, 2022)




----------



## racing_kitty (Apr 1, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> View attachment 39212


It’s sing-along time, everybody!!


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Apr 1, 2022)

racing_kitty said:


> It’s sing-along time, everybody!!


Surprisingly, “Sounds of Silence” fits pretty well!


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 2, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Why waste a MCLC when you can apparently just use your feet and kick them out of the way...🙂
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841451164782595


That’s some pretty super-relaxed mine clearing ops.  It’s almost like they knew those mines didn’t have anti-handling devices.  That they probably knew because they were the ones who put them down I the first place.


----------



## AWP (Apr 2, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> That’s some pretty super-relaxed mine clearing ops.  It’s almost like they knew those mines didn’t have anti-handling devices.  That they probably knew because they were the ones who put them down I the first place.



You make it sound like the Ukrainians are engaging in IO for favorable press. The good guys don’t do that!


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 2, 2022)

What Mariupol looked like before Russian De-Nazification Special Operation:


What Mariupol looks like now...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510150685404319748

ETA: 

French Military Intelligence Chief is dismissed/resigns after investigation says the DRM got the intelligence wrong on what Russia was going to do.  French military spy chief quits after Ukraine failings, sources say

Honestly, I don't think anyone knew he was going to to attempt to take Kyiv and force a regime change...but we thought we were dealing with a rational actor and not someone who is pulling forces from all comers to exact atrocities upon a neighboring country.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 2, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Honestly, I don't think anyone knew he was going to to attempt to take Kyiv and force a regime change...but we thought we were dealing with a rational actor and not someone who is pulling forces from all comers to exact atrocities upon a neighboring country.



Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.


I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I.  Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do.  But again, not a rational actor anymore.  He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were.  Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 2, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I.  Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do.  But again, not a rational actor anymore.  He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were.  Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.


Absolutely. The short-sightedness of the whole plan borne out by the incredible logistics SNAFU. I never expected the Russian military to appear so inept. I mean, they’ve never been known for their finesse. But this was a surprise.


----------



## AWP (Apr 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I never expected the Russian military to appear so inept. I mean, they’ve never been known for their finesse. But this was a surprise.



Army Group South would agree.

Also, today I learned the Kiev Pocket and encirclement of 4 or 5 Soviet armies was called the "Kiev Strategic Defensive Operation." Looks like Putin is keeping the tradition alive with garbage names to cover failures.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Apr 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.


To my untrained ( and very nearsighted) eyes, it looks for once our intel was about close as this stuff gets. Usually telling everyone in advance what you have would seem like a bad idea, but this time, it played out pretty damn well. There's still plenty of time to screw things up, of course...


----------



## Muppet (Apr 2, 2022)

Enjoy


----------



## AWP (Apr 3, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid.
> 
> From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.



Oddly enough, here's a video explaining the current deployments of the -18G and a capabilities brief.






Anyone interested in Naval aviation should check out Ward's channel. Retired F-14 RIO, Academy grad, some of his classmates went on to Flag rank and he interviews them, history, etc. Just a great channel all around.


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I.  Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do.  But again, not a rational actor anymore.  He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were.  Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.


Agree.
I knew Russia was going in when they made Kamela the person in charge.
Like others I thought capturing Donbas, declare victory, annex Donbas into Russia.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 3, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I knew Russia was going in when they made Kamela the person in charge.


----------



## Cookie_ (Apr 3, 2022)

So I'm not going to share the photos here, but images are coming out of Bucha, Ukraine that are clearly war crimes.

Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.

Early accounts are saying Checen fighters were in that area, and may have executed 100s of people.


Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre, city strewn with bodies


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 3, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> So I'm not going to share the photos here, but images are coming out of Bucha, Ukraine that are clearly war crimes.
> 
> Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.
> 
> ...


Saw them. It's very bad.  And no one will ever see a jail cell for it either.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Apr 3, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.


I saw those; I had the appropriate reaction.  These days though…I believe the pics are legit, of course they are.  But I’m becoming so jaded I find it difficult not to at least ask myself if I should doubt their validity.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 4, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> So I'm not going to share the photos here, but images are coming out of Bucha, Ukraine that are clearly war crimes.
> 
> Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.
> 
> ...



Russian state media has been pushing the Chechen fighter angle...to create fear that they'll rape, pillage and massacre civilians. There was even a report that Chechen special forces had been sent into Kyiv to assassinate Zelenskyy. 

At the beginning of the conflict we saw stories of Ukrainians scolding Russian troops, joking with them about running out of gas, etc. There was some tentative civility. There's just fucking raw hatred now.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 4, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Russian state media has been pushing the Chechen fighter angle...to create fear that they'll rape, pillage and massacre civilians. There was even a report that Chechen special forces had been sent into Kyiv to assassinate Zelenskyy.
> 
> At the beginning of the conflict we saw stories of Ukrainians scolding Russian troops, joking with them about running out of gas, etc. There was some tentative civility. There's just fucking raw hatred now.


According to this report, it was Russians, not Chechen fighters, in Bucha:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510948838722486273I find it interesting that Ukraine has the names, ranks, and passport info of the Russian soldiers that were that were there. How would they know that?  They claim an Anonymous hack exposed the info.  Interesting.

The pictures were horrific and are illiciting the expected response. However, given all the disinformation we've seen so far, I'm still a bit cautious about making too many conclusions just yet.

Kind of interesting info in re: to Russia's population as it relates to their military, particularly conscripts:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510956227668459533


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 4, 2022)

Bucha is adjacent Irpin which is a suburb of Kyiv.  This is not an area where Chechens have been deployed.  Chechen regulars and Chechen Rosgovardiya were deployed to Mariupol.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 4, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> According to this report, it was Russians, not Chechen fighters, in Bucha:


 
Yeah, I didn’t say that.

I’m just saying Russian media is using Chechen involvement to ramp up the fear based on the reputation Kadyrov’s guys earned (justly or unjustly) in the Crimea—as the Baba Yagas who castrate prisoners for fun.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 4, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Yeah, I didn’t say that.
> 
> I’m just saying Russian media is using Chechen involvement to ramp up the fear based on the reputation Kadyrov’s guys earned (justly or unjustly) in the Crimea—as the Baba Yagas who castrate prisoners for fun.


Oh, I got ya. 👍


----------



## Muppet (Apr 5, 2022)

Enjoy


----------



## AWP (Apr 5, 2022)

A little under an hour, but a great video breaking down some Soviet propaganda, capabilities, shortcomings in equipment and munitions, SEAD, Ukrainian capabilities...basically most topics influencing the air war over the Ukraine.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 5, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> I saw those; I had the appropriate reaction.  These days though…I believe the pics are legit, of course they are.  But I’m becoming so jaded I find it difficult not to at least ask myself if I should doubt their validity.



At the risk of sounding like some heartless evil fuck and Russkie sympathizer, I think you should doubt the validity of some of the claims.

I found myself intently studying the images of the corpses; looking for blood pools, injuries, odd skin color, disheveled clothing, limbs at unusual angles, brain matter, exposed sinews, anything.

Honestly, some of the “dead” seemed to be just a little too neat and tidy.

I’m sure a number of civilians have been killed by the Russians, and quite possibly executed outright. But it also wouldn’t shock me to learn that some enterprising spin doctors among the Ukrainians saw an opportunity to inflate the numbers and decided to have some of their buddies play dead.

It’s healthy to be skeptical of battlefield claims.


----------



## SpitfireV (Apr 5, 2022)

Sats have shown them to have turned up after the Russians did.


----------



## Polar Bear (Apr 5, 2022)

Gunz said:


> At the risk of sounding like some heartless evil fuck and Russkie sympathizer, I think you should doubt the validity of some of the claims.
> 
> I found myself intently studying the images of the corpses; looking for blood pools, injuries, odd skin color, disheveled clothing, limbs at unusual angles, brain matter, exposed sinews, anything.
> 
> ...


Thank you, I have been thinking this from day 1


----------



## CQB (Apr 5, 2022)

I know of one photo journalist who has left as movement is quite restricted. The narrative is being managed pretty effectively IMO.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 5, 2022)

Gunz said:


> At the risk of sounding like some heartless evil fuck and Russkie sympathizer, I think you should doubt the validity of some of the claims.
> 
> I found myself intently studying the images of the corpses; looking for blood pools, injuries, odd skin color, disheveled clothing, limbs at unusual angles, brain matter, exposed sinews, anything.
> 
> ...


War crimes is exactly what I would expect from a poorly-equipped conscript force who are getting their asses kicked and whose officers keep getting killed.  Lack of professional forces + lack of moral compass + watching your buddies get blown up = recipe for disaster.

That said, I agree with the above assessment. The Ukrainians are doing whatever it takes to protect their country, and I admire them for it.  But the truth went out the window from day one, from the "Ghost of Kiev," to the "glorious warriors who all died after saying "fuck you" to the Russian warship," to the "look at our supermodel women defending the motherland!" which turned out to be Glamor Shots of models holding Airsoft rifles.

The Palestinians, for example, are very, very good at creating fake civilian casualties.  Just because a dead person is wearing civilian clothes doesn't mean they were a non-combatant.  Just because someone looks dead on TV doesn't mean they are dead.  And it's hard to tell by looking who killed someone who is actually dead, how they died, and whether it was an unfortunate accident, and act of war, or a straight up war crime.

But it's working, so I bet we see more of it, real or not.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> War crimes is exactly what I would expect from a poorly-equipped conscript force who are getting their asses kicked and whose officers keep getting killed.  Lack of professional forces + lack of moral compass + watching your buddies get blown up = recipe for disaster.
> 
> That said, I agree with the above assessment. The Ukrainians are doing whatever it takes to protect their country, and I admire them for it.  But the truth went out the window from day one, from the "Ghost of Kiev," to the "glorious warriors who all died after saying "fuck you" to the Russian warship," to the "look at our supermodel women defending the motherland!" which turned out to be Glamor Shots of models holding Airsoft rifles.
> 
> ...


To your first point of the Russian troops being nonprofessional and lacking moral compass, this has been evident in numerous reports - and goes beyond this conflict.  This is well illustrated by the unit in which a dude deliberately ran over his own commander with a tank.  Discipline is apparently sorely lacking. That incident occurred in the same general area outside of Kiev, although not with a unit tied to the atrocities in Bucha.

For the reasons you stated, as well as those above, I believe crimes were committed.  There certainly seems to be enough independent evidence to support it.  That said, I also believe Ukraine is guilty of crimes as well and, similarly, there seems to be evidence to support this as well. It's a very slippery slope.


----------



## Jaknight (Apr 5, 2022)

Does anyone know what the casualties are for Ukraine? I suspect it must be higher than the Russians


----------



## CQB (Apr 5, 2022)

A podcast from the Economist on Ukraine comms; some creative electronics, Space-X & SOCMED.

Babbage from The Economist - Babbage: How to communicate in a war zone


----------



## SpitfireV (Apr 6, 2022)

I should have included a link. 

Satellite images show civilian deaths in Ukraine town while it was in Russian hands


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 6, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> To your first point of the Russian troops being nonprofessional and lacking moral compass, this has been evident in numerous reports - and goes beyond this conflict.  This is well illustrated by the unit in which *a dude deliberately ran over his own commander with a tank. * Discipline is apparently sorely lacking. That incident occurred in the same general area outside of Kiev, although not with a unit tied to the atrocities in Bucha.
> 
> For the reasons you stated, as well as those above, I believe crimes were committed.  There certainly seems to be enough independent evidence to support it.  That said, I also believe Ukraine is guilty of crimes as well and, similarly, there seems to be evidence to support this as well. It's a very slippery slope.


I'm not entirely convinced that the bolded part above happened, either.  The only reporting I saw on it was from Ukrainian second-hand accounts.  It seems apocryphal to me.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 6, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I should have included a link.
> 
> Satellite images show civilian deaths in Ukraine town while it was in Russian hands


I checked out the site.  I understand what the pictures say they show, but I don't see it.

Dead bodies?  Where, the smudged black blobs in the middle of the circle? I zoomed in as much as a could and I can't clearly see any bodies, alive or dead.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 6, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I'm not entirely convinced that the bolded part above happened, either.  The only reporting I saw on it was from Ukrainian second-hand accounts.  It seems apocryphal to me.


Who knows. The Russians also reported the commanders death and photos had blankets covering his lower body.  So, at least that much of the story is real.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 6, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Who knows. The Russians also reported the commanders death and photos had blankets covering his lower body.  So, at least that much of the story is real.


Yeah, it definitely seems like *something* happened to the guy.  I just haven't seen much in the way of substantiation that it was a deliberate act by his own troops.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 6, 2022)

Rugby Men have answered the call for generations. 

Ex-Ukrainian national rugby team captain, 55, dies defending his country


----------



## SpitfireV (Apr 6, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I checked out the site.  I understand what the pictures say they show, but I don't see it.
> 
> Dead bodies?  Where, the smudged black blobs in the middle of the circle? I zoomed in as much as a could and I can't clearly see any bodies, alive or dead.
> 
> View attachment 39245



Their methodology seems to be that they've georeferenced the bodies to landmarks by way of video taken by Ukrainians.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 6, 2022)

Not worried about OPSEC and PERSEC? You should be.

This is an interesting and dangerous path being travelled down to publicly identify personnel in the Russian unit accused of atrocities in Bucha:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511821203304030210
On a similar note, some video was published today of Ukrainian soldiers reportedly executing Russian POWs in the Eastern part of the country.  As many stated in earlier posts, everyone has dirty hands.


----------



## Chopstick (Apr 7, 2022)

I'm so glad to see the press has it's priorities in order.  Caption this picture.  Mine is "can I haz cheezburger, comrade"?


----------



## JedisonsDad (Apr 7, 2022)

Chopstick said:


> I'm so glad to see the press has it's priorities in order.  Caption this picture.  Mine is "can I haz cheezburger, comrade"?
> 
> View attachment 39253


I really want to read this article though, so I can see the significance of this cat, and whatever it’s wearing.


----------



## AWP (Apr 7, 2022)

Considering it looks like a staging area or rally point for the press in general, plus their location and what they've seen, you're goddamn right I would stop to pet a cat given the chance.  That cat is probably the closest thing to "normal" they have seen since arriving in country.

I just hope the cat doesn't catch anything from the press. Fucking vermin.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 7, 2022)

If you're interested in knowing where your favorite vacation destination stands on this conflict, here's an easy scorecard based on the UN vote today to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council:


----------



## LimaPanther (Apr 7, 2022)

Surprised me that China gave a yes vote.


----------



## TLDR20 (Apr 7, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Surprised me that China gave a yes vote.



?

They didn’t.


----------



## LimaPanther (Apr 7, 2022)

Your right. I looked to fast


----------



## Devildoc (Apr 7, 2022)

LimaPanther said:


> Surprised me that China gave a yes vote.



Yeah, speaking of looking too fast, on first read I saw "Alabama" when it was "Albania"....


----------



## Gunz (Apr 7, 2022)

No surprise with the negatives. The usual suspects. A lot of abstentions from Africa. No surprise there, either. The PRC owns Africa so they're going to go along with whatever the PRC does.


----------



## AWP (Apr 7, 2022)

The ME is like "We aren't getting involved in your white boy problems. Good luck."

No surprises on the voting minus some of the abstentions in the Americas.


----------



## Muppet (Apr 7, 2022)

AWP said:


> Considering it looks like a staging area or rally point for the press in general, plus their location and what they've seen, you're goddamn right I would stop to pet a cat given the chance.  That cat is probably the closest thing to "normal" they have seen since arriving in country.
> 
> I just hope the cat doesn't catch anything from the press. Fucking vermin.



I fucking love animals more than humans. I've been known to stop a pt assessment on a scene to pet a cat, just happen a week ago.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 7, 2022)

About those sanctions and that sinking ruble:
Mocked as ‘Rubble’ by Biden, Russia’s Ruble Roars Back

When looking at the support from the UN votes posted earlier and knowing that some in the green category still import resources from Russia, it's clear that it will take more than sanctions to put the squeeze on Putin.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 8, 2022)

Fantastic. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512131101506031616


----------



## Gunz (Apr 9, 2022)

Ukrainians are saying this missile is the one that hit the train station in eastern Ukraine.



It says something like “This is for children.” I am far from being a rocket scientist but this doesn't look like a missile that exploded. Obviously even a dud can kill people.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 9, 2022)

Well these "orphans" would not need adoption if you didn't kill their parents, Ivan! 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512798107276296196


----------



## Dimethylamine (Apr 10, 2022)

All my Ukrainian friends are now denouncing anything Russian.  I don't really blame them, but when it comes to culture/politics, I know Belarusians/Russians/Ukrainians take it to the extreme.  I'm seeing on Ukrainian news that cities are now taking down statues of Alexander Pushkin.  Pushkin is the father of the modern Russian Language, but he died in 1837, so well before the time of Bolshevism and 'Putinism'.  My friend explained to me that the Russian language was used as a tool for oppression, so guilty by association is a thing.

Here I am typing this in English; language of King George III?


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 13, 2022)

Reports say Russia's flagship in the Black Sea, the Moskva, was seriously damaged/lost to an explosion.  Conflicting reports as to cause, Ukrainians report anti-ship missile and Russians say it was an ammo accident.  Either way, the result is the same, the ship is lost at sea (Russia interestingly says all crew evacuated safely - even those near the accident?  🤔 )

Russians aren't known for their safe ammo handling practices but they sure seem to have been quite a few "accidents" these past few weeks.  This is a big deal.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 13, 2022)

Interfax which is the Reuters source for the report say Ammunition Blast. 

Russia says ammunition blast damages flagship of Black Sea fleet - Interfax

Ukraine claims it did something...

Russian Navy Confirms Severe Damage to Black Sea Cruiser Moskva, Crew Abandoned Ship - USNI News


----------



## AWP (Apr 13, 2022)

Remember the ship that sank in Maripol a week or two ago? I think I posted a video earlier  where it was assessed that an ammo handling accident caused the ship to blow up, not a Ukrainian missile. It wouldn't surprise me if the Russian account of an ammo explosion due to a fire was true. The Ukrainians may be the good guys here, but let's be honest: they have an impressive IO campaign. Info coming from the Ukrainians should be treated with skepticism. Maybe it was a missile, maybe it was bad Soviet seamanship. *shrug

(The Moskva is the old Soviet Slava, one of their guided missile cruisers that caused NATO some sleepless nights due to her anti-ship capabilities. That class of ship would travel with the Kirov battlecruisers or anchor their own Surface Action Group. Soviet naval doctrine placed a massive value on long range missiles for both surface and aviation units, all to counter US carriers. Given the modern state of the Soviet navy, losing the Moskva is kind of a big deal.)


----------



## Gunz (Apr 14, 2022)

"60% of the time I believe the Ukraine every time."


----------



## Dimethylamine (Apr 14, 2022)

AWP said:


> Remember the ship that sank in Maripol a week or two ago? I think I posted a video earlier  where it was assessed that an ammo handling accident caused the ship to blow up, not a Ukrainian missile. It wouldn't surprise me if the Russian account of an ammo explosion due to a fire was true. The Ukrainians may be the good guys here, but let's be honest: they have an impressive IO campaign. Info coming from the Ukrainians should be treated with skepticism. Maybe it was a missile, maybe it was bad Soviet seamanship. *shrug
> 
> (The Moskva is the old Soviet Slava, one of their guided missile cruisers that caused NATO some sleepless nights due to her anti-ship capabilities. That class of ship would travel with the Kirov battlecruisers or anchor their own Surface Action Group. Soviet naval doctrine placed a massive value on long range missiles for both surface and aviation units, all to counter US carriers. Given the modern state of the Soviet navy, losing the Moskva is kind of a big deal.)



I agree.  Having been to Ukraine and been speaking Russian for a few years now, I've picked up on the cultural norms.  Russians and Ukrainians share a lot of the same mannerisms that they don't really want to admit.  Both are head strong, family/community oriented, very proud of their cultures, and emotionally driven, and that seems to manifest in their media and decision making process in the military.  It's still pretty Soviet.


----------



## racing_kitty (Apr 14, 2022)




----------



## TLDR20 (Apr 14, 2022)

racing_kitty said:


> View attachment 39329


Classic


----------



## Ex3 (Apr 15, 2022)

Thoughts? As horrible as it would be to receive such a message, I think it's a great use of technology. Those families certainly won't get any answers from the Putin gov't.

Ukraine is scanning faces of dead Russians, then contacting the mothers


----------



## Dimethylamine (Apr 15, 2022)

Interesting PSYOPs campaign.  It's a bit grotesque.  *Sends picture to family* "Hey, your son is dead lol."

The Ukrainian govt would definitely be more transparent about the soldiers whereabouts than the Russian government ever was/is.  IE the Little Green Men.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 15, 2022)

I think it's the winning side of dealing with the dead.  Instead of the Russians leaving them to rot, tossing them in mass graves or incineration.


----------



## Grunt (Apr 15, 2022)

I read somewhere that someone once wrote, "War is hell".....


----------



## AWP (Apr 15, 2022)

Allegedly, the US is confirming the Moskva was sunk by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles.

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Pentagon attributes Moskva's sinking to Ukraine missile strikes: reports

Where it gets even better is buried in the second link. Of a crew of about 500, 440-ish are unaccounted for. Even losing half that number is a big deal.

Russia's military is a shit show. Putin knows all he has left are threats and bluffs.


----------



## AWP (Apr 15, 2022)

If you skip forward to about 35-40 seconds, you can see alleged video of the attack.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> If you skip forward to about 35-40 seconds, you can see alleged video of the attack.


I love Ward but none of that video is from the attack.  That's old video, possibly from a test or something.  The attack supposedly occurred around 0100 local; that's when the distress call was first reported.


----------



## SpitfireV (Apr 15, 2022)

Ward is a great talking head and I like to listen to what he has to say but he has issues with examining the information he's received to check its validity. He did another video on the USN shootdown of a USAF RF4 and the WSO from that event ended up commenting and saying hey it didn't happen like this here's how it did happen. I think he just gets a little too keen to push stuff out sometimes.


----------



## AWP (Apr 15, 2022)

I’ve seen that same video pushed by other sources. Good catch, guys. Non-binaries, or whateverthefuck.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 15, 2022)

Nothing to add here other than this is a pretty cool pic (the tankers inside would've disagreed) and the album cover comments are on point - the "ZZ Top if they were into death metal" comment is solid.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515088803249197056


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> I’ve seen that same video pushed by other sources. Good catch, guys. Non-binaries, or whateverthefuck.


Test of a Norwegian anti-ship missile (NASM).
65 km out to sea would be out of sight from the surface.


----------



## Dame (Apr 16, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Nothing to add here other than this is a pretty cool pic (the tankers inside would've disagreed) and the album cover comments are on point - the "ZZ Top if they were into death metal" comment is solid.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515088803249197056


Ozzy's next album: Reactive Armour


----------



## AWP (Apr 16, 2022)

If you're ever bored, this will give you a real time look at what's flying...including mil flights. Check the most tracked flights and I guarantee several of ours will be there.

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

As I type this, 2 KC-135's from Mildenhall are up, showing tanker tracks over Romania and Poland.


----------



## AWP (Apr 17, 2022)

FORTE10, a Global Hawk out of Sicily, holding over Romania on the Moldavian border
An RAF C-17 chunking along, looks like he'll land at Jasionka in Poland
NATO11, the NATO AWACS, in a nice round orbit over Romania
JUICY32, a Marine C-130J in a tanker track over southern Poland
More RAF stuff
The LAGER flights (KC-135 in their respective orbits)

ADS-B is a wonderful thing.


----------



## TLDR20 (Apr 17, 2022)

AWP said:


> FORTE10, a Global Hawk out of Sicily, holding over Romania on the Moldavian border
> An RAF C-17 chunking along, looks like he'll land at Jasionka in Poland
> NATO11, the NATO AWACS, in a nice round orbit over Romania
> JUICY32, a Marine C-130J in a tanker track over southern Poland
> ...



I saw a French AF King Air cruising around as well.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 17, 2022)

Russia is continuing its offensive on Mariupol.  They're attempting to take Ukraine's Black Sea Rim, I don't see that tenable long term for them but I suppose if they just level cities and make them uninhabitable that is a way to take land.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515708169254842371
Based on previous sources, I think we should start calling the "forced evacuation" of Children into Russia from Mariupol and their forced adoption by Russian families what it is.  A war crime and genocide.  Your bare minimum is mass kidnapping if you're not going to do that. We're now in the endemic stage, somehow COVID bullshit stayed on our TV for two years.  But I'm starting to see a whole lot less Ukraine coverage when I do watch the news.  Paper news still covering it pretty hardcore.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 17, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Russia is continuing its offensive on Mariupol.  They're attempting to take Ukraine's Black Sea Rim, I don't see that tenable long term for them but I suppose if they just level cities and make them uninhabitable that is a way to take land.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515708169254842371
> Based on previous sources, I think we should start calling the "forced evacuation" of Children into Russia from Mariupol and their forced adoption by Russian families what it is.  A war crime and genocide.  Your bare minimum is mass kidnapping if you're not going to do that. We're now in the endemic stage, somehow COVID bullshit stayed on our TV for two years.  But I'm starting to see a whole lot less Ukraine coverage when I do watch the news.  Paper news still covering it pretty hardcore.



Check out this guy, he is in Mariupol and you'd be surprised by the support Russia gets from the locals. 

https://youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 17, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Check out this guy, he is in Mariupol and you'd be surprised by the support Russia gets from the locals.
> 
> https://youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday


Well, half the police force defected to Russia and helped forceably remove residents through the Russian "Humanitarian Corridors".  

So the fact that some of these idiots would help murder their neighbors is not surprising, even if it is only for a worthless grip of rubles.


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 17, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well, half the police force defected to Russia and helped forceably remove residents through the Russian "Humanitarian Corridors".
> 
> So the fact that some of these idiots would help murder their neighbors is not surprising, even if it is only for a worthless grip of rubles.


Tribalism in another form.


----------



## Muppet (Apr 17, 2022)

Finders Keepers - Ukraine


----------



## JedisonsDad (Apr 18, 2022)

Zelensky Announces Start Of Russia's Offensive In East Ukraine


----------



## JedisonsDad (Apr 18, 2022)

Google Maps has opened all military and strategic sites in Russia. Now everyone can see them in good quality


----------



## JedisonsDad (Apr 18, 2022)

"Remains of chemical weapons" found after Russians left: Ukrainian mayor


----------



## BloodStripe (Apr 18, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516124863462846466
Another senior leader killed for Russia.


----------



## AWP (Apr 19, 2022)

I was on Flightradar24 a few minutes ago. The Swedish Air Force is in the game, using one of its Gulfstream IV SIGINT planes along the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus.

That NATO membership is shaping up to be a lock.


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 19, 2022)

AWP said:


> I was on Flightradar24 a few minutes ago. The Swedish Air Force is in the game, using one of its Gulfstream IV SIGINT planes along the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus.
> 
> That NATO membership is shaping up to be a lock.


Sweden has been  very active in ELINT collection, very active.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 19, 2022)

Being inside any type of armor in this war cannot be super comforting when they're making shots through buildings like this:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516208857672044552


----------



## Grunt (Apr 19, 2022)

It does my heart good to see "others" do something for once - especially against Russia....


----------



## SpitfireV (Apr 19, 2022)

AWP said:


> I was on Flightradar24 a few minutes ago. The Swedish Air Force is in the game, using one of its Gulfstream IV SIGINT planes along the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus.
> 
> That NATO membership is shaping up to be a lock.



I've got a funny feeling I saw them out there right when it all kicked off.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 19, 2022)

Grunt said:


> It does my heart good to see "others" do something for once - especially against Russia....


Same, but let's be real no one would be doing much of anything if the usual "someone" wasn't leading the way.  Again.  Still.  Always.


----------



## Grunt (Apr 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Same, but let's be real no one would be doing much of anything if the usual "someone" wasn't leading the way.  Again.  Still.  Always.


No doubt, the proverbial "we" just can't stop doing what "we" do - even if "we" need to....


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 20, 2022)

I'm not even close to finishing this but it's an interesting interview with Lavrov.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 20, 2022)

I've seen lots of news stories about Russian casualties, and in particular Russian military leaders getting killed.  Interestingly, I see almost nothing about Ukrainian casualties, except for the stories about Ukrainian victims of war crimes or Ukrainian civilians getting killed in general.  Anyone else notice the same thing or is it just me?  It could be selection bias on my part, because Russia getting its ass kicked is attractive news to me.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Apr 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I've seen lots of news stories about Russian casualties, and in particular Russian military leaders getting killed.  Interestingly, I see almost nothing about Ukrainian casualties, except for the stories about Ukrainian victims of war crimes or Ukrainian civilians getting killed in general.  Anyone else notice the same thing or is it just me?  It could be selection bias on my part, because Russia getting its ass kicked is attractive news to me.


There is definitely a bias in the news, partly because Russian media is being so heavily censored, and western media wants the good guy to win. It does seem that there are constant headlines of a new Russian commander or general being killed to help boast the morale of the Ukrainians, and then stories of Russian war crimes and Ukrainian victims to vilify the Russians.

I imagine if RT was more prominent, you would be seeing the same news, but with the sides swapped.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I've seen lots of news stories about Russian casualties, and in particular Russian military leaders getting killed.  Interestingly, I see almost nothing about Ukrainian casualties, except for the stories about Ukrainian victims of war crimes or Ukrainian civilians getting killed in general.  Anyone else notice the same thing or is it just me?  It could be selection bias on my part, because Russia getting its ass kicked is attractive news to me.



It's not just you and it's not bias on your part. We're getting a twice filtered version of Ukraine's news. Once at the source and again through the sympathetic Western media...while Russian reports are largely ignored or automatically considered false.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 20, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I've seen lots of news stories about Russian casualties, and in particular Russian military leaders getting killed.  Interestingly, I see almost nothing about Ukrainian casualties, except for the stories about Ukrainian victims of war crimes or Ukrainian civilians getting killed in general.  Anyone else notice the same thing or is it just me?  It could be selection bias on my part, because Russia getting its ass kicked is attractive news to me.


Getting Ukrainian Army Casualties seems difficult, but civilian casualties gets updated daily but the UN Commission on Human Rights. 

https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2022/04/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-18-april-2022


----------



## Intel Nerd (Apr 21, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I've seen lots of news stories about Russian casualties, and in particular Russian military leaders getting killed.  Interestingly, I see almost nothing about Ukrainian casualties, except for the stories about Ukrainian victims of war crimes or Ukrainian civilians getting killed in general.  Anyone else notice the same thing or is it just me?  It could be selection bias on my part, because Russia getting its ass kicked is attractive news to me.



This conflict really needs some big brains to do a good in-depth LPD series or white paper on Information Warfare utilized here. The Ukrainians have done an excellent job in this department. They are definitely hurting in a few arenas, but they're doing better than could be expected.



Blizzard said:


> Being inside any type of armor in this war cannot be super comforting when they're making shots through buildings like this:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516208857672044552



In all fairness, Russian has maintained an absolute trash record with employing and protecting armor since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The only reason the T-80 got a bad reputation was because of how massively they f***ed up in Chechnya in the 90s, then their limited usage in Ukraine in 2014 supported infantry to good effect, but not nearly to a level I would deem proficient. Their use in 2008 against Georgia could be deemed notable, but of the Georgians four major brigades designed for combat, their only one that met NATO standard was in Iraq fighting with the coalition at the time and as Stalin said- "quantity is a type of quality."

The amount of Russian conscript heavy units, poor operational history of Russian armor over the last 27-30 years, and the outright corruption at every level of the Russian Ground Forces are to blame for the massive failures of Russian armor in their recent expansion of the 8 year war in Ukraine.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 21, 2022)

In the West, we haven't seen a lot of published video of Putin. The last significant one I recall was the stadium rally. 

As a result, while I'm certainly not a Putin expert, it makes the physical observations pointed out in this interview all the more interesting (unsure as to the exact date, details of the interview):

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517263593720459265
Here is the video for those that are interested (I have no idea what's being discussed):


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 21, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> In the West, we haven't seen a lot of published video of Putin. The last significant one I recall was the stadium rally.
> 
> As a result, while I'm certainly not a Putin expert, it makes the physical observations pointed out in this interview all the more interesting (unsure as to the exact date, details of the interview):
> 
> ...


I read an article (lost the link) that said his Thyroid cancer maybe more aggressive then reported.


----------



## AWP (Apr 21, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I read an article (lost the link) that said his Thyroid cancer maybe more aggressive then reported.



Goddamn...never thought I'd want to give cancer a high five, but here we are.


----------



## Kaldak (Apr 21, 2022)

AWP said:


> Goddamn...never thought I'd want to give cancer a high five, but here we are.



Nope. Fuck cancer. I've personally lost many great individuals to cancer. Not to mention those unknown to me. This one asshole is not worth ever giving cancer an attaboy of any kind.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 22, 2022)

Russia intends to seize all of Southern Ukraine.  Have fun with that guys. 

Ukraine war: Russia 'plans to seize southern Ukraine'

Additionally, AFP reports that Russia won't allow Ukrainian Army to surrender in Mariupol. So, went from a Surrender or Die Ultimatum to a just die ultimatum.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517492164632186880
So far Ukrainian Army soldiers were refusing to surrender.  This is turning into some viking level glorious way to die type shit. The Ukrainian BoB mini-series on HBO will be next level when all this shit is over.


----------



## AWP (Apr 22, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So far Ukrainian Army soldiers were refusing to surrender.  This is turning into some viking level glorious way to die type shit. The Ukrainian BoB mini-series on HBO will be next level when all this shit is over.



Last Stands play well in the West. To say you'll make one is a lot of good press; to do it is immortality. It also plays well into the Ukraine's broader IO plan. "We fought to the last man, woman, and child. Where were you? Why didn't you help?" kind of stuff. You have modern geopolitics, a mostly internationally recognized bad guy, a metric butt ton of history, and the Western press on your side. Why not say you'll never surrender?


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 24, 2022)

;)


----------



## Gunz (Apr 25, 2022)




----------



## Blizzard (Apr 25, 2022)

I still enjoy the hell out of posts like this:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518672991701323780
However, I do feel a little bad for the guy because now he needs to get rid of the garbage.  Hopefully, he knows someone with a tractor.


----------



## AWP (Apr 25, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I still enjoy the hell out of posts like this:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518672991701323780
> However, I do feel a little bad for the guy because now he needs to get rid of the garbage.  Hopefully, he knows someone with a tractor.



I have a feeling tractors are cruising the neighborhoods like 22 year olds cruising high school parking lots.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 27, 2022)

Some interesting comments from the Soviets (I'm picking this term back up too thanks to @AWP):


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519205198824194049

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519242631510999041
No real surprise, but after 60+ days with massive Soviet losses reported, it's abundantly clear Putin has absolutely no interest in any negotiations with Ukraine. These little talks we occasionally here about aren't at all serious.

This fight appears ready to go to the distance because Ukraine isn't ready cede any territory. So, what about the other former Soviet territories?  At what level are they willing to participate?  If Putin is somehow able to make it past Ukraine, they're obviously next.  Seems Kazakhstan may be having second thoughts.


----------



## Gunz (Apr 28, 2022)

And after 60+ days, this is what Putin's "blitzkrieg" has accomplished: military control of areas that were significantly pro-Russian to begin with and slow progress expanding penetration on a 600-mile+ front.

If this rate of advance keeps up, Putin's looking at a very long war. Every day Ukraine gets stronger militarily, Ukrainian resistance will flourish in areas not under Russian control. Just the task of investing all the major urban centers--considering the Russian performance to date--might be a nightmare. 

He also has no way of sealing all the border areas, and this IMO, will be the nail in the coffin. Ukraine will continue to be resupplied, rearmed, reinforced through NATO countries to the West. Poland will be Ukraine's Pakistan, Ukraine's Ho Chi Minh Trail. 

Three, four, five years from now--unless the situation drastically changes in Russia's favor--this ShadowSpear thread may still be relevant.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 28, 2022)

@Gunz the problem I see is that Ukraine may be getting better equipment but it's equipment with a steep learning curve.  Also, Ukraine is definitely distorting or outright hiding their losses.  Without a major influx of manpower, how long can they sustain? 

How long are we delaying the eventual world wide conflict?  Putin isn't going to back down.  Either way, we have an eventual worldwide nuclear war.  Everyone is forgetting all the other assholes in the room, with itchy button fingers.


----------



## Devildoc (Apr 28, 2022)

RE: all the military equipment and weapons, read this in an article earlier: 

"While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”

Sooooo......is it working, or no??


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 28, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> @Gunz the problem I see is that Ukraine may be getting better equipment but it's equipment with a steep learning curve.


Agree,  the devil is in the details.  Getting the equipment is just one part of the equation...the easy part.  How about spare/replacement parts? The logistical cycle is the hard part.  Who will maintain the equipment and implement a training program beyond the initial delivery?


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> RE: all the military equipment and weapons, read this in an article earlier:
> 
> "While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”
> 
> Sooooo......is it working, or no??


I read an article that said Ukraine needed 500 Stingers and Javelins **per day**.  Those are precision weapons, and they're not cheap.  I also read an article that indicates Raytheon is having trouble keeping up with Stinger production, which is concerning because we might need those weapons against China someone in the future. So did someone pull that 500 number out of thin air, or is the consumption rate really that high? We already sent something like 20,000 AT missiles and 2,000 AA missiles. Are they not being used? Are they not getting hits? Does Russia really have that many vehicles that Ukraine is blasting through that entire stockpile of vert expensive and very effective American weapons? What is happening to the weapons we're sending, and more importantly, what's going to happen to them when the war is over? That kind of firepower can wreak absolute havoc on civilian infrastructure or topple governments in the wrong hands.  

However we slice it, this is VERY concerning.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> and more importantly, what's going to happen to them when the war is over? That kind of firepower can wreak absolute havoc on civilian infrastructure or topple governments in the wrong hands.


Agree 100%, especially on this point.  

What if Ukraine eventually falls?  What happens to those weapons?  Did we just rearm the Soviets?  

I'd like to think the smart people have thought this through but based on the train wreck of an exit in Afghanistan, I'm not confident that's  the case.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read an article that said Ukraine needed 500 Stingers and Javelins **per day**.  Those are precision weapons, and they're not cheap.  I also read an article that indicates Raytheon is having trouble keeping up with Stinger production, which is concerning because we might need those weapons against China someone in the future. So did someone pull that 500 number out of thin air, or is the consumption rate really that high? We already sent something like 20,000 AT missiles and 2,000 AA missiles. Are they not being used? Are they not getting hits? Does Russia really have that many vehicles that Ukraine is blasting through that entire stockpile of vert expensive and very effective American weapons? What is happening to the weapons we're sending, and more importantly, what's going to happen to them when the war is over? That kind of firepower can wreak absolute havoc on civilian infrastructure or topple governments in the wrong hands.
> 
> However we slice it, this is VERY concerning.



I've seen videos of Ukrainian's, almost everyone in a section was carrying some sort of shoulder fire AA or AT system.  I'm sure plenty have been wasted.


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 28, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I've seen videos of Ukrainian's, almost everyone in a section was carrying some sort of shoulder fire AA or AT system.  I'm sure plenty have been wasted.


RPGs and AT-4s work against a lot of kinds of armor too.  So do shaped-charge IEDs.  So I've heard.  Seen.  ;)  I imagine they're also a lot easier and cheaper to acquire/produce and don't damage our strategic readiness

It appears that we have already introduced into Ukraine several times the number of AA and AT missiles that Russia has committed aircraft and armored vehicles.  Even understanding the combat math that includes spoilage, missed shots, and having enough weapons to have them in the right places at the right times, the numbers don't seem to add up.  

Maybe the ass whipping that all of this money and equipment is helping the Ukrainian coalition is worth it strategically.  But for now I have many questions.


----------



## AWP (Apr 28, 2022)

I'm dumb, and looked up the Soviet Air Force numbers on Wikipedia. Ballpark, you have about 750 multirole fighters, 450 ground attack, and 1400 or so helos of various types. These are very rough numbers, I looked at what they were likely to use and ignored heavy bombers, transports, one-offs, etc.

So...2,600-ish frontline aircraft that routinely operate in a Stinger's envelope. If each a/c took 5 missiles to kill, you'll need 13,000 Stingers.

Or 26 days at Ukrainian numbers. That's assuming that every frontline Soviet a/c was committed, attacked, and destroyed.

10 missiles per kill is 52 days @500 missiles at day.

The Ukrainians are out of their goddamn minds. I am all for Team Ukraine, but someone needs to slap them upside their heads and ask hard questions.

List of active Russian military aircraft - Wikipedia


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 28, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm dumb, and looked up the Soviet Air Force numbers on Wikipedia. Ballpark, you have about 750 multirole fighters, 450 ground attack, and 1400 or so helos of various types. These are very rough numbers, I looked at what they were likely to use and ignored heavy bombers, transports, one-offs, etc.
> 
> So...2,600-ish frontline aircraft that routinely operate in a Stinger's envelope. If each a/c took 5 missiles to kill, you'll need 13,000 Stingers.
> 
> ...


...and that doesn't count the SA-7s and Cheetahs that the Germans sent in, or the AA that Ukraine presumably had in its inventory pre-war.


----------



## DA SWO (Apr 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> However we slice it, this is VERY concerning.


I haven't seen hundreds of downed aircraft videos.  Lot of videos out there, but not enough to justify 200-500 (depending on whose numbers you believe) launches/day.
ATGM's seem to be very effective, which makes me question flooding the Ukraine with ManPAD's.
What does the Ukraine plan on giving us (the West) after it's all over?


----------



## Marauder06 (Apr 28, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I haven't seen hundreds of downed aircraft videos.  Lot of videos out there, but not enough to justify 200-500 (depending on whose numbers you believe) launches/day.
> ATGM's seem to be very effective, which makes me question flooding the Ukraine with ManPAD's.
> *What does the Ukraine plan on giving us (the West) after it's all over?*


If it's like the rest of the world, what they're likely to give us is a bunch of grief over "not doing enough," and a hard time over "colonialism."


----------



## Gunz (Apr 29, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> @Gunz the problem I see is that Ukraine may be getting better equipment but it's equipment with a steep learning curve.  Also, Ukraine is definitely distorting or outright hiding their losses.  Without a major influx of manpower, how long can they sustain?
> 
> *How long are we delaying the eventual world wide conflict?  Putin isn't going to back down.  Either way, we have an eventual worldwide nuclear war.  Everyone is forgetting all the other assholes in the room, with itchy button fingers.*



I hope you're wrong, Bro, but the doomsday clock has moved closer to midnight. But didn't we (US/UK/NATO) have advisors training Ukrainians in the use of these weapons prior to invasion? 




Devildoc said:


> RE: all the military equipment and weapons, read this in an article earlier:
> 
> "While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”
> 
> *Sooooo......is it working, or no??*



Good question. Probably one for which we'll never get an honest answer prior to conflict termination.


----------



## AWP (Apr 29, 2022)

Dark, cynical view follows, but y'all weren't expecting rainbows and butterflies when you saw that I posted.

I am 100% down with the Ukraine. I am Team Ukraine. I am all for the world providing the curb (weapons) on which the Ukraine can curb stomp the Soviets.

Also, I don't care about the Ukraine.

Nations have to act in their own best interests and friendships can be fleeting. That isn't a good idea, but it happens. A friendship/ partnership with UA is in the US' best interests. You know what else is in our best interests?

A lot of dead Soviets.

Sorry, not sorry, but if UA bleeds itself dry a la Afghanistan from 79-89 to weaken USSR 2.0, then send more weapons. Not 500 Javs/ Stingers a day, but send them what they need to kill Soviets. If UA bleeds a cup, let the USSR bleed a gallon.

I think the Odyssey put it best:

USSR/ Eurymachus:
Spare your own people. As for ourselves, we’ll make restitution of wine and meat consumed, and add, each one, a tithe of twenty oxen with gifts of bronze and gold to warm your heart. Meanwhile we cannot blame you for your anger.

UA/ Odysseus:
Not for the whole treasure of your fathers, all you enjoy, lands, flocks, or any gold put up by others, would I hold my hand. There will be killing till the score is paid.* You forced yourselves upon this house. Fight your way out, or run for it, if you think you’ll escape death.* I doubt one man of you skins by.


----------



## RackMaster (Apr 29, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I hope you're wrong, Bro, but the doomsday clock has moved closer to midnight. But didn't we (US/UK/NATO) have advisors training Ukrainians in the use of these weapons prior to invasion?



I don't think it was vehicles and many of the heavy weapons. Canada just sent 4 M777 to Ukraine and are now training Ukrainian's to use them.  And this doesn't account for all the nations donating that were not involved in training since 2014.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762

Canada training Ukrainian troops on howitzer artillery, Canadian defense minister says


----------



## ThunderHorse (Apr 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Russia intends to seize all of Southern Ukraine.  Have fun with that guys.
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia 'plans to seize southern Ukraine'
> 
> ...



8 days later and the Ukrainian Army is still holding out in Mariupol. 

Civilians continue to seek refuge at a besieged steel complex in Mariupol.


----------



## Blizzard (Apr 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> 8 days later and the Ukrainian Army is still holding out in Mariupol.
> 
> Civilians continue to seek refuge at a besieged steel complex in Mariupol.


But they have no resupply or way to counter.  Sadly, it sounds like the Soviets are simply going to starve them.


----------



## BloodStripe (May 1, 2022)

Chalk up another dead Russian General. 

Russian general killed alongside 100 of his soldiers, Ukraine says

Reports are also saying the Russian Army Chief of Staff was on ground during the attack and was wounded. Shit electronic warfare unit or amazing intelligence provided (likely both).


----------



## Blizzard (May 1, 2022)

The latest speculation on Putin is interesting:
Putin 'to have cancer operation and hand power to hardline ex-spy chief'

The real problem in this is that it appears the U.S. still doesn't have any open diplomatic lines to the Kremlin.  As a matter of fact, it's  concerning that the Kremlin has seemingly shut down most direct diplomatic channels to the West. In the meantime, the Chinese continue to stand by the Kremlin.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 1, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Chalk up another dead Russian General.
> 
> Russian general killed alongside 100 of his soldiers, Ukraine says
> 
> Reports are also saying the Russian Army Chief of Staff was on ground during the attack and was wounded. Shit electronic warfare unit or amazing intelligence provided (likely both).




At the beginning of this conflict there wasn't unified command on the Russian side...then they fixed that and dude's position gets comped.  Wild stuff. Putin's chief of staff Valery Gerasimov 'wounded' in Ukraine


----------



## Intel Nerd (May 2, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> At the beginning of this conflict there wasn't unified command on the Russian side...then they fixed that and dude's position gets comped.  Wild stuff. Putin's chief of staff Valery Gerasimov 'wounded' in Ukraine



If this is all true- about the amount of Russian generals getting schwacked- I need to rethink how they conduct C2 from tactical to operational levels, and where in the battlespace they should be. Lots of interesting nuggets to dig into here, with the implications being well worth the study someone somewhere is probably chalking up already.

I hope we use this to support information warfare campaigns abroad where Vagner Group and Russia have been able to shift perceptions of US influence in a negative way so we can start pressing back on their overall lack of competence. Who knows though.


----------



## Gunz (May 2, 2022)

The generals are closer to the front, I think, because of comm fuckups and a lack of aggression on the part of some units. And the Ukrainians are targeting anybody with gray hair. Lol.


----------



## RackMaster (May 3, 2022)

Here's something interesting from the rumor mill.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521046238652731392
If they have this guy, Trudeau is fucked and hopefully it's not enough to trigger Putin.

Military officer retires, heads to Ukraine amid sex misconduct investigation


----------



## Marauder06 (May 3, 2022)

Well that could certainly become interesting.


----------



## Gunz (May 3, 2022)

If the Russians actually have him, the "Biolab" bullshit is the contrived pretext for prosecution and fits in well with the the existing propaganda that the Ukrainians have a secret bioweapons lab beneath the the Azovstal industrial complex. 

Call it conspiracy to commit war crimes and summon the kangaroo court.

He should've stayed in Canada to face the sex charges. Now it's too late to do the honorable thing and charge into Russian machine gun fire.


----------



## Blizzard (May 3, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Here's something interesting from the rumor mill.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521046238652731392
> ...


Timeline on this is a bit weird.

Linked story has an 21 APR date.  So, a couple weeks ago.

Tweet from Soviets is from yesterday.

Azovstal has been under surrounded/under seige since late March and reportedly completely surrounded by 16 APR - prior to the Canadian General's departure.

So, how did he get into the plant and why would he go there?

Why would Azovstal have a biolab (Soviet and Chinese propaganda going back to March)?  Have Soviets actually taken Azovstal yet?  Odd.


----------



## RackMaster (May 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Timeline on this is a bit weird.
> 
> Linked story has an 21 APR date.  So, a couple weeks ago.
> 
> ...



His official date of retirement was April 5th but he hasn't been in uniform for quite some time.  I had cleared, moved and been in shorts and crocs for almost 6 months before my actual retirement date. It's plausible he was in country, long before the invasion. 

Ukraine had dozens of public health research facilities, toss in a bio weapons General and you have a bio weapons lab.  Not necessarily true but enough for propaganda.  If they secured materials from said labs and had to retreat, it would make sense that it's underground with them in the plant.

Russia hasn't taken the whole Azovstal facility, there's acres of underground tunnels and rooms.


----------



## AWP (May 3, 2022)

Failure to read the thread. That's on me, hence the edit.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 5, 2022)

In before the war in Ukraine gets largely forgotten-about in the upcoming public rage tsunami:


----------



## Gunz (May 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> In before the war in Ukraine gets largely forgotten-about in the upcoming public rage tsunami:
> 
> View attachment 39434



Good timing. Ukraine's on the back page. Abortion is on the front...(that is, until Johnny's lawyers start the cross examination of Amber  Heard).


----------



## AWP (May 5, 2022)

So, the NY Times broke a story that US intelligence was providing information to the Ukraine so it could target Soviet generals. (There are a bunch of links out there).

Then this popped up:
Pentagon denies US intelligence is targeting Russian generals in Ukraine



> “The United States provides *battlefield intelligence* to help Ukrainians defend their country,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters during a press conference. “*We do not provide intelligence on the location of senior military leaders on the battlefield or participate in the targeting decisions of the Ukrainian military.*”



Later in the article, we more of the same:


> “This is their country, their territory and they have capable intelligence collection abilities of their own,” he added. “*Ukraine combines information that we and other partners provide with the intelligence that they themselves are gathering on the battlefield*.”



"Nah, we totally aren't providing information on generals an' shit. We are giving them data and what they do with that data is anyone's guess. I mean, if we told the Ukrainians that a cluster of RF was at a 10-digit coordinate, that doesn't mean a general  officer is there."


----------



## Marauder06 (May 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> So, the NY Times broke a story that US intelligence was providing information to the Ukraine so it could target Soviet generals. (There are a bunch of links out there).
> 
> Then this popped up:
> Pentagon denies US intelligence is targeting Russian generals in Ukraine
> ...


Go Intel!!


----------



## RackMaster (May 5, 2022)

Interesting interview with a Canadian in Ukraine. 






For reference, this is Wali.

Canadian sniper Wali still alive and fighting in Kyiv


----------



## Marauder06 (May 5, 2022)

In our "Profiles in Havok" podcast we interviewed a Ukrainian currently in Ukraine.  What's interesting about him is that he's proud to be a Ukrainian but he's desperately trying to leave.  He's not fighting, and has no intention to.

https://www.audible.com/pd/Miggy-an...d56-d35a359de6e9&pf_rd_r=A7FX0ETHDYDTHCP0VKM5


----------



## RackMaster (May 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> In our "Profiles in Havok" podcast we interviewed a Ukrainian currently in Ukraine.  What's interesting about him is that he's proud to be a Ukrainian but he's desperately trying to leave.  He's not fighting, and has no intention to.
> 
> https://www.audible.com/pd/Miggy-an...d56-d35a359de6e9&pf_rd_r=A7FX0ETHDYDTHCP0VKM5



It's in my queue, I'm really enjoying these.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 6, 2022)




----------



## Blizzard (May 6, 2022)

Each day seems to bring another level of misery to the Soviet military:
Putin’s new flagship on FIRE in missile strike near Snake Island, Ukraine claims


----------



## AWP (May 6, 2022)

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
 From Wiki:
Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia


> Data from Flightradar24 showed a USAF Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk and an RAF Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint flying in circular patterns over the Black Sea, suggesting that something may have happened to the Makarov.



If you go over to FlightRadar24, RRR7236, an RAF RC-135W is transiting back to the UK. FORTE11, an USAF RQ-4B, is currently over the Black Sea. It isn't unreasonable to think something big is going on over the Black Sea.

You now have two modern warships, 1 sunk and 1 heavily damaged or sunk. Both have modern air defenses designed to counter missiles like the Neptune. The Neptune is roughly comparable to the US Navy's Harpoon which is in service with about half of the planet's navies. I'd dare say most of the West's navies would annihilate the Soviets in a Mahanian decisive battle. 

You know, second and third order effects being what they are, how many Soviet generals and admirals will lose their jobs over this war? I'm not talking about those fighting in it, I mean those will will fail the upcoming "inspections" (witch hunts) and "reassignments" (purges, the Soviets love their purges)?

"Comrade, we've developed new damage control training and found your ship to be...lacking in some capabilities."

Tell me that won't happen before this is all over. Fail your tank's gunnery tables? BWAHAHAHAHA! Maintenance problems in your fighter squadron? BWAHAHAHAHA! Missing light bulb on your frigate? BWAHAHAHA!


----------



## Blizzard (May 6, 2022)

AWP said:


> BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
> From Wiki:
> Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia
> 
> ...


Let's just say, it may be a "rebuilding year" for the Soviet military.


----------



## AWP (May 6, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Let's just say, it may be a "rebuilding year" for the Soviet military.



"In other news, a surprise acquisition was announced in Moscow today. Kirk Cousins has signed a 5-year, 400 billion ruble deal to head up the Western Military District. This deal has stunned both the US and USSR, leaving the likes of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield to test the waters of free agency."


----------



## RackMaster (May 7, 2022)

This guy's reports are interesting.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 7, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This guy's reports are interesting.


Seems pro-Russian encouraging a surrender by the Ukrainian Army in Mariupol. Maybe I'm jaded. But he also said that the Civilians who have sought refuge there are human shields so...


----------



## Marauder06 (May 7, 2022)

AWP said:


> BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
> From Wiki:
> Russian frigate Admiral Makarov - Wikipedia
> 
> ...


The Russian military really seems to be getting an ass whipping, which I'm happy about and totally approve of.  I wonder if we eventually get to the point where Russia is tired of getting its ass kicked and really open up with the rest of its capabilities.


----------



## AWP (May 7, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> The Russian military really seems to be getting an ass whipping, which I'm happy about and totally approve of.  I wonder if we eventually get to the point where Russia is tired of getting its ass kicked and really open up with the rest of its capabilities.



I agree and I agree. They (Putin) are taking a beating and at what point do they say "Fuck it, the West is weak" and roll the dice? Brother, we know the war crimes the Soviets committed in Syria. They used chemical weapons, they napalmed schools and hospitals, they targeted anything with a pulse...and we did nothing as a direct response. We looked the other way and maintained our existing posture.

Now that the UA is involved we're going to care? NOW we'll find our spine? The US will go to war with the New USSR if they hit Mariupol with chemical agents? Yeah, nah.

And I say the US because...and I truly love and respect our allies, especially those in the Commonwealth, but their politicians are weak. Their political systems are weak. They will follow our lead. If we say the solution is to send 10 tons of chocolate per day to Moscow, they would plead poverty and negotiate down to a thousand kilos. We would then send our portion and whatever the other nations couldn't cover.

We've hit our equilibrium with the war and are waiting to see what will happen. Putin has the next move.

Or have I missed something?

Also, where is a better love emoji?


----------



## RackMaster (May 7, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Seems pro-Russian encouraging a surrender by the Ukrainian Army in Mariupol. Maybe I'm jaded. But he also said that the Civilians who have sought refuge there are human shields so...



He started as pretty unbiased but has become more pro Russian as the conflict went on.  I'm not siding with the guy, it's just interesting to watch; especially when he interacts with the civilians.   Most aren't cheering for Ukraine...
There's more than 2 sides to a story and we're not even getting close to 1 side of this one.


----------



## RackMaster (May 7, 2022)

Apparently the last Russian ship that was sunk,  was done with a drone. 

Drone destroys Russian ship delivering missiles on Snake Island


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 7, 2022)

Well, the side that leveled a massive city in a war of true aggression isn't exactly the side I'd be believing.


----------



## RackMaster (May 7, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well, the side that leveled a massive city in a war of true aggression isn't exactly the side I'd be believing.



If you think it's only the Russians bombing buildings, you really haven't payed attention to any conflict. It's not one sided, especially in a total war situation.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 7, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> If you think it's only the Russians bombing buildings, you really haven't payed attention to any conflict. It's not one sided, especially in a total war situation



Well I start with everyone's a war criminal until proven otherwise and then work backwards.


----------



## AWP (May 7, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well I start with everyone's a war criminal until proven otherwise and then work backwards.



This is the smartest post you've ever made in the history of ever. Glad to see you get onboard the AWP Cynic Train.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 8, 2022)

Something something lots of US Support. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523296687791304706


----------



## Marauder06 (May 8, 2022)

Ok. Serious question.  The foreign fighters who come over an enlist in Ukraine's foreign legion, are they mercenaries?  Illegal combatants?  Soldiers in the Ukrainian Army?  What do you think their status should be?  

Question prompted by this article about a Brit captured by the Russians.


----------



## AWP (May 8, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Ok. Serious question.  The foreign fighters who come over an enlist in Ukraine's foreign legion, are they mercenaries?  Illegal combatants?  Soldiers in the Ukrainian Army?  What do you think their status should be?
> 
> Question prompted by this article about a Brit captured by the Russians.



If recruited and/ or hired to serve a foreign nation with pay? Mercenary.
An unpaid volunteer? Just that. What does Geneva or the Hague think of such? I don't care to research.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 8, 2022)

Weren't these people put through some type of official reception and placed into an official designation of "foreign legion" type thing?  Wouldn't that make them Ukrainian Soldiers?


----------



## AWP (May 8, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Weren't these people put through some type of official reception and placed into an official designation of "foreign legion" type thing?  Wouldn't that make them Ukrainian Soldiers?



When I was a kid and read about the Lincoln Battalion, Eagle Squadron, and Flying Tigers I thought they were badass. Then I learned the Lincolns were Communists, the AVG mercenaries, and the Eagle Squadron was ultimately saved by the politics and emotion of the time.

"A-dub, you were a contractor." Yup, for an American company on an American contract working for the American military...toooooootally the same thing as those above.
---
Bottom line, you want to go off and play Savior of the World, then Big Boy Rules apply. I may or may not watch your YouTube channel and laugh at your dumbassedry.


----------



## BloodStripe (May 9, 2022)

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/ulzcei


----------



## Marauder06 (May 9, 2022)

On the Russian Air Force...

The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering


----------



## RackMaster (May 10, 2022)

Using a wool blanket, is that proof that Putin's health is in question.  I've heard a lot of rumours and they are starting to appear at least partially true.

Starts at 2:25:


----------



## Blizzard (May 10, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> On the Russian Air Force...
> 
> The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering


Soviet Air continues to be the strangest things/biggest surprises in a surprisingly underwhelming offensive.  SEAD is apparently non-existent. Perhaps this is also why no heavy bombers?  Soviets also appear to be fair weather flyers only. Wonder how big a role logistics/maintenance are playing here as well.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 10, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Soviet Air continues to be the strangest things/biggest surprises in a surprisingly underwhelming offensive.  SEAD is apparently non-existent. Perhaps this is also why no heavy bombers?  Soviets also appear to be fair weather flyers only. Wonder how big a role logistics/maintenance are playing here as well.


I was at a conference this weekend where we talked a bit about that.  I'm still perplexed as to why Ukraine has any air force at all, and why the Russians haven't completely cratered all working airfields and any long stretches of highway that might work as airfields.  If this had been a US invasion, one of the first things to happen is a total destruction of the opposition's air power.


----------



## Gunz (May 10, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I was at a conference this weekend where we talked a bit about that.  I'm still perplexed as to why Ukraine has any air force at all, and why the Russians haven't completely cratered all working airfields and any long stretches of highway that might work as airfields.  If this had been a US invasion, one of the first things to happen is a total destruction of the opposition's air power.



From _The Atlantic_ article you shared:

_"...the Russian air force continues to suffer from flawed logistics operations and the lack of regular, realistic training. Above all, the autocratic Russian kleptocracy does not trust low-ranking and middle-ranking officers, and so cannot allow the imaginative, flexible decision making that NATO air forces rely upon..."_

I think we could safely assume at this point that the above seems to apply equally to the Russian Army and Navy.


----------



## Locksteady (May 10, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Ok. Serious question.  The foreign fighters who come over an enlist in Ukraine's foreign legion, are they mercenaries?  Illegal combatants?  Soldiers in the Ukrainian Army?  What do you think their status should be?
> 
> Question prompted by this article about a Brit captured by the Russians.


If your definition isn't grounded in the GC, pick whichever one you want them to be.

If you're going by the GC, they are legal combatants and soldiers in the Ukrainian military.


----------



## AWP (May 10, 2022)

Serious question: what happens if a Soviet cruise missile schwacks our First Lady, diplomat, or GO while visiting Kyiv?

Tinfoil time: members of our government want that happen.

Alex Jones level: the Deep State!


----------



## Ooh-Rah (May 10, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: what happens if a Soviet cruise missile schwacks our First Lady, diplomat, or GO while visiting Kyiv?
> 
> Tinfoil time: members of our government want that happen.
> 
> Alex Jones level: the Deep State!


Paging @R.Caerbannog


----------



## Locksteady (May 10, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Paging @R.Caerbannog


----------



## SpitfireV (May 10, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: what happens if a Soviet cruise missile schwacks our First Lady, diplomat, or GO while visiting Kyiv?
> 
> Tinfoil time: members of our government want that happen.
> 
> Alex Jones level: the Deep State!



For a serious answer. There should be a process in place where they've contacted the Russians to say hey, we're visiting if she dies you die. But in diplomatic language which of course will never directly say what they want to say because why would you speak plainly in a dip note. 

If that happened and she got hit well then tough shit for visiting a war zone I suppose?


----------



## Blizzard (May 11, 2022)

Posting this here because it's just pure awesomeness:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524163737938190337Beware of an old man in a profession where men usually die young...granted, they're just doing what they need to do to defend their home but the spirit is there.  No rush, just let me put my glasses back on...OK...send it.   As the kids say, this guy is a total vibe. 🤣


----------



## RackMaster (May 11, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: what happens if a Soviet cruise missile schwacks our First Lady, diplomat, or GO while visiting Kyiv?
> 
> Tinfoil time: members of our government want that happen.
> 
> Alex Jones level: the Deep State!



No better time for Trudeau to actually do something good and eat a cruise missile.  Not like we need an embassy in Ukraine now, anyway.   I don't want any of his security team to get hit, I probably know some of them but fuck Trudeau.

Even this dog hates the douchebag.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 11, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> For a serious answer. There should be a process in place where they've contacted the Russians to say hey, we're visiting if she dies you die. But in diplomatic language which of course will never directly say what they want to say because why would you speak plainly in a dip note.
> 
> If that happened and she got hit well then tough shit for visiting a war zone I suppose?



Can't edit but I meant to say "if that didn't happen..."


----------



## Marauder06 (May 11, 2022)

First the First Lady, now this.  Russia is going to lose for sure.

See U2's Bono and the Edge Play Surprise Acoustic Set in Kyiv Bomb Shelter



> Following a personal invitation from Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky, U2’s Bono and the Edge visited Kyiv Sunday to perform an acoustic concert in one of the city’s subway stations-turned-bomb shelters.
> 
> “The people in Ukraine are not just fighting for your own freedom, you are fighting for all of us who love freedom,” Bono told the audience, which included soldiers. “We pray that you will enjoy some of that peace soon.”


----------



## RackMaster (May 11, 2022)

It was a woke weekend wet dream of visits.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 11, 2022)

Those visits are very interesting to me.  First of all, it sends a pretty strong message of support, both from the USG and from a band/individual with enormous non-state influence.  It also indicates that the situation on the ground inside these major western-Ukraine cities must be super safe.  It also shows that Russia is getting their asses absolutely kicked on the information warfare front.  Notwithstanding their tactical gains on the ground the Russians are losing strategically in pretty much every area that matters.


----------



## AWP (May 11, 2022)

To be fair, I consider any visit from Bono to be a loss. Damn, all of the Polonium on this planet and Bono still walks? Putin's such a bitch.


----------



## amlove21 (May 11, 2022)

January 6th- "Terrifying hellscape, almost didn't make it out; I have PTSD because of it." 

Flying two idiots with a combined age of 152 years to an unsecure warzone without US infrastructure to lean on in a near-peer adversary (at LEAST) contested environment- "Necessary for... freedom? Or support? IDK."

I think the 75 billion (ish, if this 40 flies through, which it will) in support is plenty for this little proxy war. We can stop with the Jill Biden/Nancy Pelosi USO tours. 

(I only have one more post today @AWP if there's something you want me to cynically highlight, lmk)


----------



## Gunz (May 11, 2022)

If we sent Nickleback we’d be helping the Russians.


----------



## Blizzard (May 11, 2022)

Gunz said:


> If we sent Maroon 5 we’d be helping the Russians.


Fixed it for you.


----------



## AWP (May 11, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Fixed it for you.



There are greater evils than Maroon 5.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 11, 2022)

Ouch.
The Anglosphere is saving Ukraine while the EU is saving itself

The Anglosphere is saving Ukraine while the EU is saving itself​


> while European Council President Charles Michel talks of the EU’s “unprecedented” response to Russian aggression, saying the EU is “determined to do everything we can to support Ukraine,” *the sad reality is that beneath all the rhetoric, the photo ops and recycled pledges, the EU continues to prevaricate while it is the Anglosphere that’s busy helping Ukraine save itself*.


----------



## Blizzard (May 11, 2022)

AWP said:


> There are greater evils than Maroon 5.


🤔...


----------



## AWP (May 11, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Ouch.
> The Anglosphere is saving Ukraine while the EU is saving itself
> 
> The Anglosphere is saving Ukraine while the EU is saving itself​



The former Yugoslavia has entered the chat... aka, no shit, Politico.

Europe needs to do a better job of being...better. Christ, the French, the fucking FRENCH at least pulled their weight in Mali some years ago albeit with US help; I can get onboard with that level of participation. See also: Libya. The likes of Germany however, that's disgraceful. The failed painter was 3 generations ago, they need to move on. Look at Japan. 

Maybe I'm an Anglo/ Commonwealthfile, but they are getting it done. They are improving, they understand the gaps that need filling and are working towards those goals (Canada though, please). Other nations, their economies can only support so much, but membership in NATO isn't free and some act like we're willing to cancel their student debt.

Idealistic A-dub thinks Europe should improve so that with US assistance it can at least keep the Soviets in check. That allows us to focus on other threats such as those in Asia and others which may suddenly appear. The US, and I say this without any sense of nationalism, has proven to be the Arsenal of Democracy and an economic catalyst when needed. What my dumbass expects of our partners is to hold the line while we triage the threats and react accordingly.

Your mileage may vary and I'm okay with the beating I take.


----------



## Devildoc (May 12, 2022)

More sadness for Russian armor:

The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine


----------



## AWP (May 12, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> More sadness for Russian armor:
> 
> The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine



Couple that with numbers I looked at earlier in the thread plus whatever's happened in the meantime, plus their casualties, and the Soviets have lost an entire division, maybe more.

Tac air losses are somewhere around 1-2 squadrons if you count total aircraft, not airframe type.

Think of a war where in two months the US loses the entire 3rd ID and most of the fighters at say Seymour Johnson or Shaw AFB.

That's insane.


----------



## Devildoc (May 12, 2022)

AWP said:


> Couple that with numbers I looked at earlier in the thread plus whatever's happened in the meantime, plus their casualties, and the Soviets have lost an entire division, maybe more.
> 
> Tac air losses are somewhere around 1-2 squadrons if you count total aircraft, not airframe type.
> 
> ...



And that is what is so damn puzzling: why??  You would think that Russia would have the advantage.  Poor C3/4?  Poor intel?  Poor planning? Unmotivated/untrained?  Bad tactical leadership?  Some of the above?  ALL of the above??


----------



## AWP (May 12, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> And that is what is so damn puzzling: why??  You would think that Russia would have the advantage.  Poor C3/4?  Poor intel?  Poor planning? Unmotivated/untrained?  Bad tactical leadership?  Some of the above?  ALL of the above??



Doc, based on what we've seen in this thread alone, the Russian military is a shitshow. They got away with a lot in Syria because...Syria. Now they are going up against a modern, well-trained and equipped army on its home soil, using lessons learned from a rather permissive environment. The results speak for themselves.
---
I think there's a laundry list of mistakes the Soviets have made starting with their so-called air campaign. Their air force is basically impotent. That alone will cause massive problems on the ground no matter how good your army. See also: France summer of 1944.


----------



## amlove21 (May 12, 2022)

It's almost like the #BroVets that told us "Russia was going to eat our lunch" because of some shitty comparison of recruiting videos ("BuT tHeY cArE AbOuT sHaVeD hEadS aNd MoRnInG PuShUpS aNd We ArE aLl WoKe!!!") were completely wrong, and it looks like the IC has been a bit too Chicken Little in regards to our pacing threats. 

I'll tell you this- some 21 year old in a targeting cell with pronouns in their bio would have had a fucking field day on more than a division in anything resembling a flag engagement from the U.S. They'd be playing Lil Durk in the background, slaughtering a stalled 25 mile convoy on one screen and making a Tik Tok to "Oh no, Oh no, oh no no no no no" on the other while sending turrets into low orbit.

Makes you wonder two things- 1, who else is a paper tiger? And 2, maybe some dickhead from IG with 2 combat deployments in 2005 and 2007 really isn't the best voice to listen to when considering future planning and threat analysis, you know?


----------



## Devildoc (May 12, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> *It's almost like the #BroVets that told us "Russia was going to eat our lunch" because of some shitty comparison of recruiting videos ("BuT tHeY cArE AbOuT sHaVeD hEadS aNd MoRnInG PuShUpS aNd We ArE aLl WoKe!!!") were completely wrong, and it looks like the IC has been a bit too Chicken Little in regards to our pacing threats.*
> 
> I'll tell you this- some 21 year old in a targeting cell with pronouns in their bio would have had a fucking field day on more than a division in anything resembling a flag engagement from the U.S. They'd be playing Lil Durk in the background, slaughtering a stalled 25 mile convoy on one screen and making a Tik Tok to "Oh no, Oh no, oh no no no no no" on the other while sending turrets into low orbit.
> 
> Makes you wonder two things- 1, who else is a paper tiger? And 2, maybe some dickhead from IG with 2 combat deployments in 2005 and 2007 really isn't the best voice to listen to when considering future planning and threat analysis, you know?



I remember after the fall of the Iron Curtain our people being very unimpressed with the state of the former Soviet war machine; turns out, most of what we knew was flat wrong.  We have not learned our lesson with this, 'cause we're doing it all over again.  This is very disheartening.  We learned jack shit.


----------



## Blizzard (May 12, 2022)

It's still puzzling because the Soviets have some capabilites that are not being utilized, grossly under-utilized, or maybe even misused. As pointed out by several here, Airpower being the most notable and bizarre absence.

The Soviets seemingly have much more capability but seem to be holding it back for some reason. These are sr. leader level strategic decisions.  Makes me wonder if some of their leadership is deliberately undermining the offensive?  Aside from battlefield loss of generals, numerous others were removed from positions in Moscow.

As for other capabilities...Thermobaric weapons?  Mostly unused.  Why?  They launched a single hypersonic missile early on in a rather odd tactical manner but that's it?  One would think the Soviet Air Force could still make a strong display and gain air superiority, if not supremacy, which could really change the balance but there are no indications they will...is it because they can't (training, maintenance,  etc)?

If this is all simply a complete misread of the Soviets, once again, what does it say about the quality of our intelligence assessments?

I still can't help but wonder what China is doing as they lurk and observe behind the scenes.


----------



## Gunz (May 12, 2022)

Nothing about the Russians has ever suggested finesse. A lumbering bureaucracy steeped in Soviet-era ineptitude, the military just a big dumb blunt instrument. They have the weapons and the manpower but not the organizational sharpness or precision to wield them effectively.


----------



## Blizzard (May 12, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Nothing about the Russians has ever suggested finesse. A lumbering bureaucracy steeped in Soviet-era ineptitude, the military just a big dumb blunt instrument. They have the weapons and the manpower but not the organizational sharpness or precision to wield them effectively.


True.  They are a sledgehammer.


----------



## Gunz (May 12, 2022)

Their whole state-controlled system is clumsy and toxic, rife with corruption and nepotism. War is hard. Even when you’re smart, well organized and technologically sophisticated—like us—you can end up with your dick in your hand and your pants around your ankles. It’s harder when you’re stupid.


----------



## AWP (May 12, 2022)

Have the Soviets used their heavy bombers beyond an isolated incident or two?


----------



## JedisonsDad (May 12, 2022)

Maybe they’re keeping the big tech in reserve, so they feel they stand a chance in the event of a NATO push?


----------



## Chopstick (May 13, 2022)

These are cute and green to boot.  Who wouldn't want one?   



> Thanks to their speed, size and relatively low heat signature, the Atom Military motorbikes are used for reconnaissance missions, among several other tasks.
> 
> 
> “The enemy cannot hear you even at close range,” said Vanda, chief marketing officer at Sunoco Trading and Ryder Ukraine.
> ...



Commander In Ukraine Wants Quiet Electric Bikes For His Sniper Teams - USA News


----------



## RackMaster (May 13, 2022)

This could explain a lot.

‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine


----------



## Gunz (May 13, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This could explain a lot.
> 
> ‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine



Bowe Bergdahl would've liked that deal. Just say no and you get a ticket home.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 13, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This could explain a lot.
> 
> ‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine


"...We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”


US DoD since WWII:


----------



## Dimethylamine (May 13, 2022)

Fact check: Ukraine's 'Ghost of Kyiv' fighter pilot | DW | 04.05.2022


Dimethylamine said:


> I agree.  Having been to Ukraine and been speaking Russian for a few years now, I've picked up on the cultural norms.  Russians and Ukrainians share a lot of the same mannerisms that they don't really want to admit.  Both are head strong, family/community oriented, very proud of their cultures, and emotionally driven, and that seems to manifest in their media and decision making process in the military.  It's still pretty Soviet.



I called it, but not this particular event.  I don't know if this was posted earlier or not, but the Ghost of Kyiv was a giant propaganda piece.  I can't blame them for using something to unite the country on a common problem, but my point about the old Soviet ways are still very much alive.  I think a lot of us here were right to be skeptical about the "official" numbers reported.


----------



## amlove21 (May 13, 2022)

Dimethylamine said:


> Fact check: Ukraine's 'Ghost of Kyiv' fighter pilot | DW | 04.05.2022
> 
> 
> I called it, but not this particular event.  I don't know if this was posted earlier or not, but the Ghost of Kyiv was a giant propaganda piece.  I can't blame them for using something to unite the country on a common problem, but my point about the old Soviet ways are still very much alive.  I think a lot of us here were right to be skeptical about the "official" numbers reported.


It's almost like... a government will literally lie to it's people and conduct massive IO campaigns in order to garner friendly interest and support for an operation that would normally be abhorred by the general population, and those campaigns are conducted at the local, larger and overarching governmental levels, nearly all the time. 

Glad this is a single instance of this happening with Russia and Ukraine, and not a tactic our own federal agencies and government use in times of war AND peace so much that it's essentially accepted practice by our own citizens writ large; either through ignorance or negligence (with some nihilism thrown in for spice).


----------



## SpitfireV (May 13, 2022)

The first thing I thought of when I heard people whinging about propaganda was the Jessica Lynch story...


----------



## JedisonsDad (May 13, 2022)

Alert delivered on Fri May 13 2022 12:53:00 GMT-0500 (CDT):

Caption: All six of Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet submarines reportedly no longer at port in Sevastopol, Crimea: Local News Outlet via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Link: З Севастополя у море вийшли всі діючі підводні човни Чорноморського флоту Росії – фото

Link to alert in First Alert: Dataminr


----------



## Gunz (May 13, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Alert delivered on Fri May 13 2022 12:53:00 GMT-0500 (CDT):
> 
> Caption: All six of Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet submarines reportedly no longer at port in Sevastopol, Crimea: Local News Outlet via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
> 
> ...


----------



## Chopstick (May 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> "...We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”
> 
> 
> US DoD since WWII:
> ...




Apparently "we" are in a state of war.  I must have missed the Congressional vote on this?    

https://katv.com/news/nation-world/...edia-with-claim-about-ukraine-russia-conflict



> House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer stunned social media Friday when he claimed 'we're at war,' apparently referring to the U.S.'s position in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
> 
> The comments came when Sen. Hoyer, D-Md., was arguing on the House floor about the current energy crisis, which has led to record-high gas prices for Americans.





> Hoyer then said he wished “we’d get off this and really focus on the enemy,” adding he knows “there’s a lot of politics here, but we’re at war.” He later repeated himself, saying, “we’re at war.”


----------



## Ooh-Rah (May 14, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> No better time for Trudeau to actually do something good and eat a cruise missile.


@RackMaster when he learns that Trudeau did in fact eat that cruise missile.


----------



## JedisonsDad (May 14, 2022)

Chopstick said:


> Apparently "we" are in a state of war.  I must have missed the Congressional vote on this?
> 
> https://katv.com/news/nation-world/...edia-with-claim-about-ukraine-russia-conflict


It’s almost as if politicians don’t realize, that now more than ever, words can mean things and have global repercussions.

Russian officials have already been heard saying that NATO staging troops in Sweden and Finland would make those countries legal targets. Saying that Poland is next for “denazification”. 

You can’t just run around saying things like “we’re at war” or someone might take that seriously.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 14, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> It's almost like... a government will literally lie to it's people and conduct massive IO campaigns in order to garner friendly interest and support for an operation that would normally be abhorred by the general population, and those campaigns are conducted at the local, larger and overarching governmental levels, nearly all the time.
> 
> Glad this is a single instance of this happening with Russia and Ukraine, and not a tactic our own federal agencies and government use in times of war AND peace so much that it's essentially accepted practice by our own citizens writ large; either through ignorance or negligence (with some nihilism thrown in for spice).



I think I'd take that IO versus interning tens of thousands of loyal citizens because of their ethnic makeup.



Chopstick said:


> Apparently "we" are in a state of war.  I must have missed the Congressional vote on this?
> 
> https://katv.com/news/nation-world/...edia-with-claim-about-ukraine-russia-conflict



Democrats and their Octogenarian leaders.  But at least he admits the country needs to produce energy.  Keep saying trash like that and homeslice on the other end will get itchy and slip on the red button.


----------



## RackMaster (May 14, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> @RackMaster when he learns that Trudeau did in fact eat that cruise missile.



Sad thing is, then he'd be martyred and one of his idiot followers would continue the madness.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 14, 2022)

Ukrainian Counteroffensive at Kharkiv continues to make gains.  Thread and article from the Telegraph.  Part of this success is obviously because the Russians have thrown more resources into Donbas.  But these retreats have also been pretty bloody and it will take Russia years to refit these units.  On a replacement basis, you could have some of these units at full strength manpower wise I suppose within a year with conscripts.  But they will lack any true experience needed to do much and will take years of training as a unit to be at any competent level...if we even thought they were competent before the war. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525408795178016768


----------



## CQB (May 15, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> First the First Lady, now this.  Russia is going to lose for sure.
> 
> See U2's Bono and the Edge Play Surprise Acoustic Set in Kyiv Bomb Shelter


Up next, Susan Sontag directs Waiting for Godot.


----------



## Gunz (May 15, 2022)

If Finland's parliament approves, Putin will have another NATO country on his border. He'll piss and moan and threaten, my guess...but can't afford to pull another Ukraine. Also guessing that if Finland get's the go-ahead, the admission process will happen at record speed.

Finland announces it wants to join NATO


----------



## Locksteady (May 15, 2022)

Gunz said:


> If Finland's parliament approves, Putin will have another NATO country on his border. He'll piss and moan and threaten, my guess...but can't afford to pull another Ukraine. Also guessing that if Finland get's the go-ahead, *the admission process will happen at record speed.*
> 
> Finland announces it wants to join NATO


This is a very good guess, since both Finland and Sweden (which also intends to join) already fulfill and even surpass some current member nations in all the criteria that have kept other countries in membership limbo for years.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (May 15, 2022)




----------



## Archangel27 (May 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> More sadness for Russian armor:
> 
> The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine



I guess all the drilling we do for wet gap crossings actually means something now.  Expecting to see more at the next WFX.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (May 16, 2022)

It's amazing. Putin had everything going his way. He was on the verge of having Europe dependent on his oil and gas that all he would have to do to get them to do his bidding was threaten to close the tap. NATO was turning into a shell of itself and he had considerable sympathy in the U.S. The classic Russian strategy of playing the long game was working quite well before he pissed it all away with one supremely bad decision. Amazing.


----------



## AWP (May 16, 2022)

Imagine where the war would be if the Soviets had air superiority, average counterbattery capability, and secure comms.


----------



## Devildoc (May 16, 2022)

If Mother Russia has had a time in Ukraine, I am not seeing a great outcome for them in Poland:

Putin ally pushes Russia toward war with Poland


----------



## Marauder06 (May 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> If Mother Russia has had a time in Ukraine, I am not seeing a great outcome for them in Poland:
> 
> Putin ally pushes Russia toward war with Poland



"At the same time, we're also quite certain that [Putin] will not do it now because he's too much occupied with what's happening in Ukraine," Jablonski added.


Also, Poland is a full member of NATO and there are a shitload of US troops there right now.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (May 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Imagine where the war would be if the Soviets had air superiority, average counterbattery capability, and secure comms.


Well, if I was 20 years younger, 40 pounds lighter and a lot better looking I might be able to get a date with Jennifer Garner.


----------



## Blizzard (May 16, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> "At the same time, we're also quite certain that [Putin] will not do it now because he's too much occupied with what's happening in Ukraine," Jablonski added.
> 
> 
> Also, Poland is a full member of NATO and there are a shitload of US troops there right now.


I read a British report today that estimates the Soviets lost 30% of it's ground forces in this offensive.  That's pretty staggering, especially considering they've apparently not achieved any of their strategic objectives.


----------



## Gunz (May 16, 2022)

The obvious lack of progress of Russian forces, in itself, confirms the veracity of many of the Ukrainian claims. It’s right and proper to doubt claims made by combatants in war…the proof is in the progress or lack thereof. And what this war lacks are images of Russian victories ala NVA tanks in Saigon or Taliban BMPs rolling into Kabul. There’s nothing indicating any Russian success at all, just one bad day after another.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (May 17, 2022)

At this point, it looks to me like the Russians have lost the initiative and are just wallowing around trying to show Putin, or whomever, that they're doing something. Other than vague statements about "freeing" the Donbas there doesn't seem to be any real overarching strategy. I'm wondering what the over/under is on how long it takes for Putin to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner and start making noises about shifting to a new phase...whatever that may be. Just a random thought, I'm old enough to remember that in the runup to the Six Day War we heard predictions from the press and pundits that the sheer weight of numbers and materiel would eventually result in Israel's defeat. Although this war has and will last a lot longer than that one, it does show how group think can creep in. General Patton is quoted as saying that "If everyone is thinking the same thing, someone isn't thinking." Sure seems like that was true in this case.


----------



## Locksteady (May 17, 2022)

SOWFMike said:


> At this point, it looks to me like the Russians have lost the initiative and are just wallowing around trying to show Putin, or whomever, that they're doing something. Other than vague statements about "freeing" the Donbas there doesn't seem to be any real overarching strategy. I'm wondering what the over/under is on how long it takes for Putin to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner and start making noises about shifting to a new phase...whatever that may be. Just a random thought, I'm old enough to remember that in the runup to the Six Day War we heard predictions from the press and pundits that the sheer weight of numbers and materiel would eventually result in Israel's defeat. Although this war has and will last a lot longer than that one, it does show how group think can creep in. General Patton is quoted as saying that "If everyone is thinking the same thing, someone isn't thinking." Sure seems like that was true in this case.


I'm with you all the way to the point of shifting to a 'new phase' in the sense you describe.

I'm more concerned that he'll be more willing to self-destruct than acquiesce with less than he promised his own people.

Zombiejew may smile; however that is still no basis for playing <choose your own nation> roulette with any noncombatants, *foreign or domestic*.

Cheers.


----------



## RackMaster (May 17, 2022)

Azovstal is being evacuated.

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops evacuated from Mariupol steelworks after 82-day assault


----------



## Gunz (May 17, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Azovstal is being evacuated.
> 
> Hundreds of Ukrainian troops evacuated from Mariupol steelworks after 82-day assault



What a great day for Mother Russia! They had the city and it only took them 3 months to dislodge a couple of hundred ragged Ukrainian hold-outs at the steelworks. 

This calls for a Victory Parade through Red Square.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (May 17, 2022)

Gunz said:


> What a great day for Mother Russia! They had the city and it only took them 3 months to dislodge a couple of hundred ragged Ukrainian hold-outs at the steelworks.
> 
> This calls for a Victory Parade through Red Square.



"Another 'victory' such as this and I will be undone!"


----------



## Blizzard (May 17, 2022)

What a bizarre conversation, but, really, the dad isn't being greedy or unreasonable.  He just wants a couple pistols. He doesn't need the other shit. LOL


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519345126954483713


----------



## JedisonsDad (May 23, 2022)

First Russian soldier sentenced to life in prison for war crimes, for murder of a 62 year old man.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/23/ukraine-russia-soldier-war-crimes-verdict/


----------



## Gunz (May 23, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> What a bizarre conversation, but, really, the dad isn't being greedy or unreasonable.  He just wants a couple pistols. He doesn't need the other shit. LOL
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519345126954483713



_"no one walks around with pistols here...do you want a land mine?"_ Bwaaaaaaahaaaaaa


----------



## Devildoc (May 23, 2022)

Bold prediction, Cotton....

Putin will "be gone by 2023," likely to sanatorium, predicts ex-MI6 chief


----------



## RackMaster (May 23, 2022)

If Putin is gone, it's in a grave and that dude is like a cockroach.


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## Blizzard (May 23, 2022)

Gunz said:


> _"no one walks around with pistols here...do you want a land mine?"_ Bwaaaaaaahaaaaaa


And the response, "No, I don't need that." 🤣


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## Devildoc (May 23, 2022)

SOF to guard US embassy?

Biden admin considering sending US special operations forces to protect US embassy in Kyiv


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## Gunz (May 23, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Bold prediction, Cotton....
> 
> Putin will "be gone by 2023," likely to sanatorium, predicts ex-MI6 chief



Well.....Sir Richard's been on the sidelines for some 18 years. Maybe he's just trying to stay relevant. Not saying he's out of the loop entirely but I remember when people very much in the loop were predicting UBL's demise from kidney disease etc. 

And Oliver Stone? WTF does that asshole know? He's been a big Commie kiss-ass for years for the likes of Hugo Chavez and Putin.


----------



## Gunz (May 23, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> SOF to guard US embassy?
> 
> Biden admin considering sending US special operations forces to protect US embassy in Kyiv



If any SOF is sent it ought to be _Marine SOF. _The Dress Blues stay home, but don't outsource an exclusive Marine Corps role.

(PS. The new US Ambassador, Bridget Brink? Any relation to


----------



## Devildoc (May 23, 2022)

Gunz said:


> If any SOF is sent it ought to be _Marine SOF. _The Dress Blues stay home, but don't outsource an exclusive Marine Corps role.
> 
> (PS. The new US Ambassador, Bridget Brink? Any relation to
> 
> View attachment 39529



Small world story, I know him a bit through a different venue.  He got my nutrition and strength/fitness on the right track after my hospitalization.

I agree re: USMC mission.  They have everything they need to do the job, and I think SOF is a shiny toy for them to use.


----------



## Gunz (May 23, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Small world story, I know him a bit through a different venue.  He got my nutrition and strength/fitness on the right track after my hospitalization.
> 
> I agree re: USMC mission.  They have everything they need to do the job, and I think SOF is a shiny toy for them to use.



He was an SS member back in 08, 09 or thereabouts when I was here under a different callsign. He made an impression. 

And that’s all I’m gonna say.


----------



## Devildoc (May 23, 2022)

Gunz said:


> He was an SS member back in 08, 09 or thereabouts when I was here under a different callsign. He made an impression.
> 
> And that’s all I’m gonna say.



He's not a vet but definitely orbits the peri-SOF world.  He is opinionated and has a, ah, robust view of himself and can be an ass.  That said, he really helped me out.


----------



## TLDR20 (May 23, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> SOF to guard US embassy?
> 
> Biden admin considering sending US special operations forces to protect US embassy in Kyiv



Should read: “Pentagon presents idea to low level admin, Biden not even aware of option yet.”


----------



## Marauder06 (May 23, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> He's not a vet but definitely orbits the peri-SOF world.  He is opinionated and has a, ah, robust view of himself and can be an ass.  That said, he really helped me out.


I'm glad to hear you had a good experience with him.


----------



## MikeDelta (May 23, 2022)

pardus said:


> So by now we all know that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
> NATO is refusing to join the conflict unless it spills over into a NATO country. The west is mobilizing some forces for such an eventuality.
> Chechnya is sending troops to fight with Russia against Ukraine. Ukraine is asking for military trained volunteers to come and fight with them.
> 
> ...





pardus said:


> So by now we all know that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
> NATO is refusing to join the conflict unless it spills over into a NATO country. The west is mobilizing some forces for such an eventuality.
> Chechnya is sending troops to fight with Russia against Ukraine. Ukraine is asking for military trained volunteers to come and fight with them.
> 
> ...


What is Putin’s ultimate goal? Certainly this is the million dollar question.

I opine…

To understand what Putin’s ultimate goal is one must consider the unholy alliance between Russia, China and Iran. 

The above mentioned unfriendly nations engage in joint training exercises. China funded the 2014 invasion of Ukraine as well as the 2022 invasion. And they also funded other border aggression. China is insulating Russia from sanctions, but what is in it for them? 

China has verbalized their stance on Taiwan they continue aggression on India’s border and in the South China Sea.

Millions of pieces of propaganda are deployed against citizens of the United States. Active measures are abundant and well documented by the Department of State. 

So, I’m stating the obvious…Well, I am, because it’s real and the threat is palpable.

The foreign intelligence agencies of the hostile nations listed above would LOVE to see the U.S. in turmoil leading up to a civil war. 

Internal struggle was cause for Russia to bow out of WWI…What would happen to America’s readiness if the shit hits the revolving oscillator in the homeland? At the very least we would protect Europe with one arm behind our back.

I could go on, but I’ll stop here and say that Putin’s ultimate goal is the same as China’s and Iran, to degrade the U.S.A. and become the new power brokers of the world, taking land, air, sea and space.it just so happens that Putin is now doing his part, out in the open.


----------



## TLDR20 (May 23, 2022)

MikeDelta said:


> What is Putin’s ultimate goal? Certainly this is the million dollar question.
> 
> I opine…
> 
> ...



Does anything you’ve seen give you th impression Russia are leaders in land, sea, air or space?


----------



## Locksteady (May 23, 2022)

MikeDelta said:


> What is Putin’s ultimate goal? Certainly this is the million dollar question.
> 
> I opine…
> 
> ...


"Liked" because I appreciate you emphasizing the soft strategies deployed by those regimes to secure their shared goal.

What is your analysis on how Russia's invasion trajectory has affected its progress toward that ultimate goal, and if you feel it has hurt it what other activities, in lieu of invasion, that weren't already in play should Russia have deployed to optimize its progress toward that goal?   What wasn't done with active elements in play that should have been done to further progress to that goal?  Were there other solid reasons (time sensitivity, etc.) for Putin to conduct such an open-faced attack with less than solid intelligence on Ukraine's capabilities and Russians own willingness to participate in a land invasion?

This started as a response question to @MikeDelta but I'd enjoy hearing everyone's input.  Note:  Agreement with the premise (Putin's ultimate goal) isn't necessary to entertain what Putin could have done to maximize headway toward its success.


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## MikeDelta (May 23, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Does anything you’ve seen give you th impression Russia are leaders in land, sea, air or space?


No. Not hardly.


----------



## MikeDelta (May 23, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> "Liked" because I appreciate you emphasizing the soft strategies deployed by those regimes to secure their shared goal.
> 
> What is your analysis on how Russia's invasion trajectory has affected its progress toward that ultimate goal, and if you feel it has hurt it what other activities, in lieu of invasion, that weren't already in play should Russia have deployed to optimize its progress toward that goal?   What wasn't done with active elements in play that should have been done to further progress to that goal?  Were there other solid reasons (time sensitivity, etc.) for Putin to conduct such an open-faced attack with less than solid intelligence on Ukraine's capabilities and Russians own willingness to participate in a land invasion?
> 
> This started as a response question to @MikeDelta but I'd enjoy hearing everyone's input.  Note:  Agreement with the premise (Putin's ultimate goal) isn't necessary to entertain what Putin could have done to maximize headway toward its success.





Locksteady said:


> I hypothesize based on what I know about Russian sociocultural aspects that impact how they lead, feedback from colleagues on the ground in Ukraine and observing the invasion thus far is…Well, the Russians have tripped out of the gate. They didn’t have a will to fight because leadership failed to deliver orders on a clear objective, among other blunders. Secondly they have failures on the strategic,tactical and logistical levels. Like Gen. Omar Bradley said (paraphrasing) “amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.” However, the Russians fail to meet many of the most basic standards. And their soldiers lack discipline and training. So, to answer your questions broadly I feel that IF there is a timeline Russia’s military failures have delayed it and they have lost the initiative. And simultaneously NATO is ramping up support. As far as what Russians could have done to be more combat effective…Well, they would have to rearrange their society so that more people take pride in their service and country, followed by solid training. There is no foundation to build on with a broken ideology. The leadership of their officers hasn’t changed much in 60+ years, they bully their men, instead of leading from the front and by example.


I hypothesize based on what I know about Russian sociocultural aspects that impact how they lead, feedback from colleagues on the ground in Ukraine and observing the invasion thus far is…Well, the Russians have tripped out of the gate. They didn’t have a will to fight because leadership failed to deliver orders on a clear objective, among other blunders. Secondly they have failures on the strategic,tactical and logistical levels. Like Gen. Omar Bradley said (paraphrasing) “amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.” However, the Russians fail to meet many of the most basic standards. And their soldiers lack discipline and training. So, to answer your questions broadly I feel that IF there is a timeline Russia’s military failures have delayed it and they have lost the initiative. And simultaneously NATO is ramping up support. As far as what Russians could have done to be more combat effective…Well, they would have to rearrange their society so that more people take pride in their service and country, followed by solid training. There is no foundation to build on with a broken ideology. The leadership of their officers hasn’t changed much in 60+ years, they bully their men, instead of leading from the front and by example.

So, with all that you get a lot of dead Russian’s and with undisciplined scared soldiers you get a lot of dead Ukrainian civilians.

This would be a great convo. A bitch to write, but a topic of interest for sure.

What’s your take? I’ll answer your questions specifically sometime this week, when I’m not in bed and using a phone keyboard


----------



## MikeDelta (May 23, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Does anything you’ve seen give you th impression Russia are leaders in land, sea, air or space?


No. Not hardly


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 24, 2022)

Can someone explain to me why we give senile old men platforms to speak?  Henry, go play golf or something and stop taking speaking fees for shit you clearly are too senile to critically think about. 

Henry Kissinger: Ukraine should give up territory to Russia to reach peace


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## Devildoc (May 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Can someone explain to me why we give senile old men platforms to speak?  Henry, go play golf or something and stop taking speaking fees for shit you clearly are too senile to critically think about.
> 
> Henry Kissinger: Ukraine should give up territory to Russia to reach peace



Yo, Henry, the 70s called, they want their foreign policy back....


----------



## AWP (May 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Can someone explain to me why we give senile old men platforms to speak?


We gave it to Trump, we gave it to Biden, but Kissinger is a target? Alright.


----------



## Grunt (May 24, 2022)

Hahaha...I'm just impressed that people remember the ole codger...


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> We gave it to Trump, we gave it to Biden, but Kissinger is a target? Alright.



Man's 98. Like with Biden, this is elder abuse.


----------



## Gunz (May 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Can someone explain to me why we give senile old men platforms to speak?



Ahem…cough cough.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 24, 2022)

Kissenger is a legit commentator even if you disagree with what he says and you're surprised he's both still alive and younger than you thought he'd be.


----------



## Devildoc (May 24, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Kissenger is a legit commentator even if you disagree with what he says and you're surprised he's both still alive and younger than you thought he'd be.



Kissinger is riding high on his memoirs.  He has been stuck in cold war/Soviet-era policy.   But I admit a broken clock is right twice a day, so even can be right every now and then.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 24, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Kissinger is riding high on his memoirs.  He has been stuck in cold war/Soviet-era policy.   But I admit a broken clock is right twice a day, so even can be right every now and then.



I'm not saying he's right.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 24, 2022)

Grunt said:


> Hahaha...I'm just impressed that people remember the ole codger...


Many people still remember him, and not wel.  Every time he came to Yale there were massive protests over him being a “war criminal.”


----------



## Gunz (May 25, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Many people still remember him, and not wel.  Every time he came to Yale there were massive protests over him being a “war criminal.”



Considering the source, that was the Left's blanket term for anybody remotely associated with the conduct of the war. Everybody who came back from Vietnam was a war criminal. Everybody in uniform was a war criminal. Unless you pulled a John Kerry and openly demonstrated your contempt for the military. 

My feelings about Kissinger are mixed. He's brilliant, cold, kinda creepy. But brilliant. I think his views on Russia--not to _antagonize_ her--stem from his view on power balances that may not be as relevant now as they were in 1970.

And there's been blatant hypocrisy on the part of the Left when it comes to the Vietnam era. The former members of the "counter culture" worship the World War Two generation _now_, (i.e. their parents), but hated them then. Many of them still resent Vietnam veterans but forget that it was the World War Two generation that got us involved, ran the war and led the troops.


----------



## Devildoc (May 25, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Considering the source, that was the Left's blanket term for anybody remotely associated with the conduct of the war. Everybody who came back from Vietnam was a war criminal. Everybody in uniform was a war criminal. Unless you pulled a John Kerry and openly demonstrated your contempt for the military.
> 
> *My feelings about Kissinger are mixed. He's brilliant, cold, kinda creepy. But brilliant. I think his views on Russia--not to antagonize her--stem from his view on power balances that may not be as relevant now as they were in 1970.*
> 
> And there's been blatant hypocrisy on the part of the Left when it comes to the Vietnam era. The former members of the "counter culture" worship the World War Two generation _now_, (i.e. their parents), but hated them then. Many of them still resent Vietnam veterans but forget that it was the World War Two generation that got us involved, ran the war and led the troops.



RE: bolded/italicized, I agree.  That's my issue: we wouldn't (well, shouldn't) give a doc a public platform to talk about surgical techniques from 40 years ago but well outdated and superseded. I get that he is brilliant.  But his perspectives are based on and informed by his experiences of the 60s and 70s.

RE: your last para, those same former members of the counter culture and anti-war movement who now embrace the WW2 generation now, are also the hawks who appear to have little qualm about sending kids (but not theirs!) into harm's way.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 25, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Kissenger is a legit commentator even if you disagree with what he says and you're surprised he's both still alive and younger than you thought he'd be.


Was* a legit commentator.  That's some straight up appeasement rhetoric when we're talking about a adversary of the west.  Allowing Russia to achieve their current goals would create a lack of food security in the west beyond what is currently happening.  Ukraine is the largest wheat producer in the world. It's been called the "breadbasket" of Europe.


----------



## Gunz (May 25, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ukraine is the largest wheat producer in the world. It's been called the "breadbasket" of Europe.



Yep. That's why the Kaiser wanted it. That's why Hitler wanted it. That's why every swinging dick has wanted it for 600 years.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 25, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Was* a legit commentator.  That's some straight up appeasement rhetoric when we're talking about a adversary of the west.  Allowing Russia to achieve their current goals would create a lack of food security in the west beyond what is currently happening.  Ukraine is the largest wheat producer in the world. It's been called the "breadbasket" of Europe.


Just because you disagree doesn't make him any less legitimate. He's got more experience than either of us and we don't have to agree with him but contributions like this do hold some value even if just to help us test our thoughts.


----------



## Gunz (May 25, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Just because you disagree doesn't make him any less legitimate. He's got more experience than either of us and we don't have to agree with him but contributions like this do hold some value even if just to help us test our thoughts.



He might be Dr. Strangelove, but he's got a lifetime of senior statesmanship and global political acumen in that old brain of his and is still able to make some sense. Whether or not it's good sense is a matter of opinion.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 25, 2022)

Exactly right.


----------



## Marauder06 (May 25, 2022)

I heard him talk in person in grad school a few years back.  He was funny, he was witty, he was intelligent.  He also fell asleep while one of the other panelists was talking.  Twice.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 26, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Just because you disagree doesn't make him any less legitimate. He's got more experience than either of us and we don't have to agree with him but contributions like this do hold some value even if just to help us test our thoughts.



Letting people live on their laurels is what this world is built on, doesn't mean we should give credence to Abraham Simpson when he starts yelling at the clouds.


----------



## SpitfireV (May 26, 2022)

Fine. Have it your way.


----------



## CQB (May 27, 2022)

Gunz said:


> He might be Dr. Strangelove, but he's got a lifetime of senior statesmanship and global political acumen in that old brain of his and is still able to make some sense. Whether or not it's good sense is a matter of opinion.


I've heard him interviewed recently & he's still pertinent. The view to give up territory is an interesting one, considering that it's already happened in three regions. There seems to me to be a realisation with the conflict that either it's time for a resolution or it will continue for years. He's always been controversial & my original view was he was an arch villain, but on reading some of his works I changed tack completely. Has anyone here actually read anything he's published? BTW he's writing another & at his age that's not bad.


----------



## Gunz (May 27, 2022)

CQB said:


> I've heard him interviewed recently & he's still pertinent. The view to give up territory is an interesting one, considering that it's already happened in three regions. There seems to me to be a realisation with the conflict that either it's time for a resolution or it will continue for years. *He's always been controversial & my original view was he was an arch villain,* but on reading some of his works I changed tack completely. Has anyone here actually read anything he's published? BTW he's writing another & at his age that's not bad.



The Left stigmatized him as an arch villain, just like they did with Cheney. After time that image transcends mere politics until it's a commonly held impression. People like Kissinger and Cheney don't help themselves; neither projects warmth.


----------



## CQB (May 27, 2022)

The two are different, Cheney was VP whose job was to be there in case POTUS didn’t die, but he changed the office of VP to be more dynamic; Jan 6 & Mike Pence springs to mind but it’s late here & I’m 3 sheets to the wind. K was a Secretary of State & an advisor as well. The first chapters of On China are are succinct précis of how the Peoples Republic of Amnesia relates to every other nation. He has been very influential; Cambodia & the decision to get tough there is manifest in The Hague Convention of 1908 whereby a nation harboring forces that attack another is a legitimate target is fair game. (my reading, too drunk to BF to reference accurately & I’ll get back to you). This is the same IR law that was produced to go to Afghanistan to sort out AQ. War criminal? Be fucked of the left with their saggy tits, their hatred & their brown rice.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 27, 2022)

CQB said:


> I've heard him interviewed recently & he's still pertinent. The view to give up territory is an interesting one, considering that it's already happened in three regions. There seems to me to be a realisation with the conflict that either it's time for a resolution or it will continue for years. He's always been controversial & my original view was he was an arch villain, but on reading some of his works I changed tack completely. Has anyone here actually read anything he's published? BTW he's writing another & at his age that's not bad.



Conflict has been going on since 2014 in a low intensity manner in Donetsk.  This was just full high intensity. So in the resolution phase I suppose.


----------



## Devildoc (May 27, 2022)

CQB said:


> I've heard him interviewed recently & he's still pertinent. The view to give up territory is an interesting one, considering that it's already happened in three regions. There seems to me to be a realisation with the conflict that either it's time for a resolution or it will continue for years. He's always been controversial & my original view was he was an arch villain, but on reading some of his works I changed tack completely. Has anyone here actually read anything he's published? BTW he's writing another & at his age that's not bad.



He's written something like 25 books.  I have read, I think, four.

I think he has a lot of wisdom and experience like any tribal elder.  My issue isn't that he isn't smart, but rather he continues to view geopolitics through the lens of what was.


----------



## CQB (May 28, 2022)

Gunz said:


> It’s okay, mate, you managed to make sense. 😎👍 We’ll done!


I had my doubts…


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 29, 2022)

Russian offensive has been re-engaged to consolidate gains in Eastern Ukraine. Now effectively executing Russian Doctrine, aka massing fires and destroying everything. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530483352272359425
Although interesting that they're not making many attempts to evacuate their wounded. 

Russia "refusing" to risk equipment to evacuate wounded in Ukraine: Report

Current campaign assessment from ISW: Institute for the Study of War


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 2, 2022)

An interesting look at a DPR camp in Kherson.


----------



## AWP (Jun 2, 2022)

Ukraine? That's still a thing? I haven't seen it on Tik Tok in awhile...


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> Ukraine? That's still a thing? I haven't seen it on Tik Tok in awhile...


RabbleRabbleRoeVWade RabbleRabbleMyGunRights


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jun 5, 2022)

Ukraine has started to retake Severodonetsk. But what are you retaking, I guess. 



> Russian troops were destroying bridges Saturday to prevent Ukraine from moving in reinforcements to Severodonetsk, regional governor Serhiy Haidai said, as the battle for the strategic city dragged on. Nonetheless, he said Ukrainian forces were regaining land and now control about half of the city.
> 
> In the neighboring Donetsk province, Ukraine accused Russian forces of bombing a towering wooden monastery that is part of a revered centuries-old Ukrainian Orthodox Church site. Video showed the ornate building engulfed in flames. Before the war, the All Saints Monastery drew tourists and pilgrims. Moscow denied any involvement.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/04/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-live-updates/


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 7, 2022)

Now this is entertaining.


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 9, 2022)

Not looking good for any foreigners caught.  

Foreign fighters sentenced to death in separatist-held Ukraine


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Jun 10, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Not looking good for any foreigners caught.
> 
> Foreign fighters sentenced to death in separatist-held Ukraine


Well, did you expect anything different? I wouldn't if I had my skin in the game. Fortunately for them and my family,  my passport is suspended...🤷‍♂️


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 10, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Well, did you expect anything different? I wouldn't if I had my skin in the game. Fortunately for them and my family,  my passport is suspended...🤷‍♂️



From my perspective, they are going after them because at least one of the Brits have a bog social media following. They also released many of the Azov guy's captured with the Brits.  They could have easily put the former Canadian General on "trial', instead he's disappeared to Moscow.   They get a bigger demoralizing effect on the younger, social media savvy, international fighters and potential fighters. 


This is pretty long but is an excellent cross section of Ukrainian's. It definitely shows how their different generational and financial status; affects their perception of Russia.


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## Gunz (Jun 10, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Not looking good for any foreigners caught.
> 
> Foreign fighters sentenced to death in separatist-held Ukraine



I'd be surprised if any death sentences are actually carried out. Foreign POWs are valuable for bargaining and propaganda. In the old Soviet playbook Western captives are exploited, not executed. And it's old Soviet Putin calling the shots in the DPR.


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 10, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I'd be surprised if any death sentences are actually carried out. Foreign POWs are valuable for bargaining and propaganda. In the old Soviet playbook Western captives are exploited, not executed.



Which is why we haven't heard anything about the Canadian, they are holding onto that card.  But these Brits are in Ukrainian separatist hands, there's definitely a different mentality in Ukraine; no matter the side of the conflict. Unless it's controlled by the Russians, like Kherson in that video I just posted.   The Russians released a lot of the Azov guy's that surrendered.  And now are offering passports/citizenship to anyone in occupied region's. 

‘A difficult and painful question’: Ukraine ponders how to punish collaborators


----------



## AWP (Jun 10, 2022)

The longer you hold a captive, the more valuable they become. Collect them like Pokémon and you have leverage to lift sanctions or whatever.


----------



## Blizzard (Jun 10, 2022)

You have a court from an illegitimate breakaway region levying decisions on foreign fighters that may or may not be legitimate as well.  Good times.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Jun 10, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Now this is entertaining.


Reporter involvement at it's finest.


----------



## pardus (Jun 13, 2022)

This is a war of attrition and Russia has a lot more of its own people and equipment to loose, Ukraine is running their war essentially as a charity, a charity that has a limited budget and an even more limited interest in seeing a successful conclusion to events. The Russians have between 10-15 times more artillery than Ukraine does, and this war is all about artillery and drones. I don’t know anyone who has even seen a Russian vehicle in person, let alone a Russian, this is being mostly fought from afar. It’s akin to WW1, units are moving to the front, occupying or digging trenches, then sitting under artillery fire until they withdraw, once they withdraw the Russian tanks roll forward, if they meet opposition, they withdraw and the Russian arty goes to work again. The Ukrainians are inept at warfare, thankfully the Russians are even worse. Most of the Ukrainian successes are due to the Russians simply leaving or not really wanting to hold an area and letting it be taken. The Russians are grinding the Ukrainians down, slowly but surely. 
The photo is what the Russians are doing with artillery…


----------



## pardus (Jun 13, 2022)

AWP said:


> We gave it to Trump, we gave it to Biden, but Kissinger is a target? Alright.


I’d say he’s more of a cunt than a target but that’s just me.


----------



## Gunz (Jun 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> This is a war of attrition and Russia has a lot more of its own people and equipment to loose, Ukraine is running their war essentially as a charity, a charity that has a limited budget and an even more limited interest in seeing a successful conclusion to events. The Russians have between 10-15 times more artillery than Ukraine does, and this war is all about artillery and drones. I don’t know anyone who has even seen a Russian vehicle in person, let alone a Russian, this is being mostly fought from afar. It’s akin to WW1, units are moving to the front, occupying or digging trenches, then sitting under artillery fire until they withdraw, once they withdraw the Russian tanks roll forward, if they meet opposition, they withdraw and the Russian arty goes to work again. The Ukrainians are inept at warfare, thankfully the Russians are even worse. Most of the Ukrainian successes are due to the Russians simply leaving or not really wanting to hold an area and letting it be taken. The Russians are grinding the Ukrainians down, slowly but surely.
> The photo is what the Russians are doing with artillery…



Wow. So it sounds like years...eventual Russian victory...and most of the country looking like Verdun 1918? Very much appreciate you shedding some light on things. Can't believe a goddamn thing coming from either side. Cheers


----------



## pardus (Jun 13, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Wow. So it sounds like years...


Yes I guarantee this is gonna drag on for years, Putin isn’t going to give up on Donbas and he sure as hell isn’t gonna give up Crimea and that means the land bridge to Crimea along with it. I would say there’s A good chance of a stalemate once Russia takes Donbas, Putin may give up the west side of the Dnipro and just settle in permanently in Donbass and the aforementioned areas. If NATO gets involved they will clean up the Russians quickly and easily, providing of course it doesn’t go nuclear, if Putin leaves for whatever reason that may help, I emphasize MAY. The Ukrainian people are cool and they are free, however the politicians and officials in general are corrupt and inept, though there is a movement in the country to rectify that. They simply don’t deserve what is happening to them, Russia needs to be punished and punished severely for what they are doing, however we all know what happened after the treaty of Versailles…


----------



## Blizzard (Jun 13, 2022)

In re: to attrition, I agree.  I read a report the other day where the Ukrainians they're losing 200 troops per day.  Russia appears to be doing at least the same.  But, as noted in the post above, the Russians simply have more bodies to lose...and apparently willing to do so.

The ADD general public seems to be moving on to the next shiny object as well, which doesn't help the Ukrainians either.


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## Marauder06 (Jun 13, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> In re: to attrition, I agree.  I read a report the other day where the Ukrainians they're losing 200 troops per day.  Russia appears to be doing at least the same.  But, as noted in the post above, the Russians simply have more bodies to lose...and apparently willing to do so.
> 
> The ADD *general public seems to be moving on to the next shiny object as well, which doesn't help the Ukrainians either.*


Nope.  And that's why at the end of the day, the person (or, at the nation-state level, the people) ultimately responsible for your safety and security is... you.  You can't count on other .govs helping you in any meaningful way against other .govs, you can't count on your government to protect you from your fellow citizens, or from itself.


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## pardus (Jun 14, 2022)

SITREP 14JUN2022

“EUROPE NEWS
JUNE 14, 2022 / 01:37 AM
No way out for Ukrainians in embattled city as Russian forces destroy last bridge
KYIV (Reuters) -Russian forces cut off all routes for evacuating citizens from the eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk by destroying the last bridge linking it to a Ukrainian held city on the other side of the river, a Ukrainian official said.
Russian troops were “trying to gain a foothold in the central part of city”, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday in its daily roundup of the conflict in various parts of the country.
“The situation in Sievierodonetsk is extremely aggravated - the Russians are destroying high-rise buildings and Azot,” Serhiy Gaidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said in a post on Telegram. A day earlier he said hundreds of civilians were sheltering in the grounds of the Azot chemical plant, which had been shelled by Russian forces.
Ukraine has issued increasingly urgent calls for more Western heavy weapons to help defend Sievierodonetsk, which Kyiv says could hold the key to the battle for the eastern Donbas region and the course of the war, now in its fourth month.
On Monday Gaidai had said on social media that some 70% of the city was under enemy control, and the destruction of the last bridge across the river to the twin city of Lysychansk meant any civilians still in Sievierodonetsk were trapped, and it was impossible to deliver humanitarian supplies.
The latest Ukrainian military situation report was filled with forboding over Russian forces building up in several parts of the Donbas.
It reported the enemy was “creating conditions for the development of the offensive on Sloviansk”, and an offensive on the towns of Lyman, Yampil and Siversk - all west of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Late on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the battle for the eastern Donbas would go down as one of the most brutal in European history. The region, comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, is claimed by Russian separatists.
“For us, the price of this battle is very high. It is just scary,” he said.
“We draw the attention of our partners daily to the fact that only a sufficient number of modern artillery for Ukraine will ensure our advantage.”
Russia’s main goal is to protect Donetsk and Luhansk, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, after the leader of one of the separatist regions asked for additional forces from Moscow.
Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks and 1,000 drones among other heavy weapons, Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Monday.
Moscow issued the latest of several recent reports saying it had destroyed U.S. and European arms and equipment.
Russia’s defence ministry said high-precision air-based missiles had struck near the railway station in Udachne northwest of Donetsk, hitting equipment that had been delivered to Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine’s interior ministry on Telegram said that Udachne had been hit by a Russian strike overnight Sunday into Monday, without mentioning whether weapons had been targeted.
Moscow has criticised the United States and other nations for sending Ukraine weapons and has threatened to strike new targets if the West supplied long-range missiles.
The European Commission will recommend granting Ukraine official status as an EU candidate country, Politico reported late on Monday, citing several unnamed officials.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Saturday that the EU executive’s opinion on Ukraine’s request to join would be ready by the end of this week.
MARIUPOL AGAIN?
Russia’s RIA news agency quoted a pro-Moscow separatist spokesperson Eduard Basurin as saying Ukrainian troops were effectively cut off in Sievierodonetsk and should surrender or die.
The situation risked becoming like Mariupol, “with a large pocket of Ukrainian defenders cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian troops”, according to Damien Magrou, spokesperson for the International Legion for the Defence of Ukraine that has had forces in Sievierodonetsk.
During the fall of Mariupol last month, hundreds of civilians and badly wounded Ukrainian soldiers were trapped for weeks in the Azovstal steelworks.
Russia has denied targeting civilians in what it calls a “special operation” to restore Russian security and “denazify” its neighbour.
Ukraine and its Western allies call this a baseless pretext for an invasion which has killed thousands of civilians and raised fears of wider conflict in Europe.
More than 5 million people have fled and the world has been hit by a food and energy crisis, dividing Western nations over how to handle it.
After failing to take the capital Kyiv following the Feb. 24 invasion, Moscow focused on expanding control in the Donbas, where pro-Russian separatists have held territory since 2014. Russia has also tried to capture more of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.
“The entire front is being subjected to constant shelling,” Donetsk regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko told Ukrainian TV on Monday evening.
The towns of Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar were hit in the coal-producing belt and Avdiivka, home to a big coking plant, he said.
Officials in the Russian-backed separatist-controlled Donetsk region said at least three people, including a child, were killed and 18 were wounded by Ukrainian shelling that hit a market in Donetsk city.
The Donetsk News Agency showed pictures of burning stalls at the central Maisky market and several bodies on the ground. The news agency said 155-mm calibre NATO-standard artillery munitions hit parts of the region on Monday.
Russian news agencies reported a shell had fallen on amaternity hospital in Donetsk, triggering a fire andprompting staff to send patients into the basement.
Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There has been no immediate reaction from Kyiv to the reports.”


----------



## Gunz (Jun 14, 2022)

_“We draw the attention of our partners daily to the fact that only a sufficient number of modern artillery for Ukraine will ensure our advantage.”_

First anti-tank missiles, now it's artillery to _*ensure* _advantage. Seems to be a retrograde dynamic here. What's next, muskets and sabres? Even more surprising to me than the logistics ineptitude, that a "modern" European war between a so-called Superpower and former Soviet-bloc country has come down to--as @pardus has pointed out and the dispatch confirms--this 1918 style of warfare.


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## RackMaster (Jun 14, 2022)

How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off?  They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals.  I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.


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## AWP (Jun 14, 2022)

The US approved...what was, it? 40 billion USD in aid? That's a LOT of equipment...

...that the sky doesn't magically shit on Kyiv. And 40 billion in all forms of aid also doesn't magically show up at ports and airfields to ship to the Ukraine. I'm pro-Ukraine (more like I'm anti-Russia to be honest), but they need to understand nations could approve a trillion USD in aid and that stuff won't suddenly appear. They can scream for more of x, y, and z, but we've agreed to fund those materials. What we can't do is download tanks out of the cloud like nudes of your mom. (BTW, that makes for a big cloud)

I don't know if UA has paid attention, but we've kinda' fought a 20 year war where airlift was used extensively. Those plans and crews are tired, overworked, and at some point need a break. By that I mean, max effort flights to send aid to another nation might not be on TRANSCOM's to do list. Plenty of civilian cargo companies will step up, but that too takes money. How much of that 40 billion is going to Kalita Air, Evergreen...whoever flies 747's that can properly secure equipment? Those flights aren't cheap and those companies have other clients.

You know what could carry a lot of equipment? An An-225 which the Ukraine....aww, that's right. They left the world's largest airlifter in range of Soviet aircraft after several month's of intelligence and buildup pointing to a war. Dumbasses.

I'm starting to think neither side in this war knows a damn thing about logistics.


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## AWP (Jun 14, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off?  They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals.  I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.



(Friedrich Paulus has entered the chat)


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## RackMaster (Jun 14, 2022)

It seems that from Zelensky, down, there's a severe lack of any real leadership.


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## Marauder06 (Jun 14, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off?  They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals.  I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.


This is tactically disruptive but I think it makes strategic sense.  They are much stronger in defensive positions, they can delay Russia's strategic plans, prolong the conflict, and make the Russians bleed.  Since this is a war for territorial gains, there is a very real possibility that anything they give up might be lost to them forever in the eventual negotiated peace.

Plus, when the Ukrainian defenders eventually get wiped out (or, more likely, surrender) there is a fresh batch of real & imagined martyrs to feed the news cycle and keep the short-attention-span public focused on the war.


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## RackMaster (Jun 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This is tactically disruptive but I think it makes strategic sense.  They are much stronger in defensive positions, they can delay Russia's strategic plans, prolong the conflict, and make the Russians bleed.  Since this is a war for territorial gains, there is a very real possibility that anything they give up might be lost to them forever in the eventual negotiated peace.
> 
> Plus, when the Ukrainian defenders eventually get wiped out (or, more likely, surrender) there is a fresh batch of real & imagined martyrs to feed the news cycle and keep the short-attention-span public focused on the war.



At the start of the war, I'd agree but after the loss of the Azov and if current daily losses are true.  They can't afford these tactics any longer.  They are inevitable giving up territory and losing large quantities of troops, at once.


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## AWP (Jun 14, 2022)

You don't want to pay for the same land twice, but you also can't readily replace men and material, especially in the Ukraine's case. UA's playing a dangerous game trying to hold on to land, but unless they have an assembly line of Jango Fetts, they will run out of people before equipment.


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## Marauder06 (Jun 14, 2022)

War is ultimately a contest of competing wills.  The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period.  Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired (or Putin dies) and they go home.  I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now:  strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out.  It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.


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## Blizzard (Jun 14, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> War is ultimately a contest of competing wills.  The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period.  Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired (or Putin dies) and they go home.  I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now:  strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out.  It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.


I don't disagree but, in terms of will, I continue to be a bit dumbfounded, if not impressed (for lack of a better word) at Russia's commitment to throwing bodies at this conflict. Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.


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## AWP (Jun 14, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.



I think years of indoctrination and Putin’s near iron grip on the country guarantee support. Plus, the propaganda about Nazis and tying that message to The Great Patriotic War coupled with a culture which throws bodies at the problem regardless of the costs…

Russians are predisposed to being controlled by a dictator.


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## Jaknight (Jun 15, 2022)

Well isn’t this the same nation that lost 


Blizzard said:


> I don't disagree but, in terms of will, I continue to be a bit dumbfounded, if not impressed (for lack of a better word) at Russia's commitment to throwing bodies at this conflict. Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.


Well isn’t this the same nation who lost 20 million to the Germans and kept fighting? I think the Russians will gladly keep throwing bodies into the grinder till they win or lose.


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## pardus (Jun 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> You don't want to pay for the same land twice, but you also can't readily replace men and material, especially in the Ukraine's case. UA's playing a dangerous game trying to hold on to land, but unless they have an assembly line of Jango Fetts, they will run out of people before equipment.


The Ukrainians are actually turning away thousands of recruits, mainly due to a lack of being able to equip and train them, but for now they are doing ok for bodies. That said, the Russians have a lot more, and an even greater amount of things that make the bodies hit the floor.


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## pardus (Jun 15, 2022)

War in Ukraine reaches pivotal moment that could determine long-term outcome, intelligence officials say


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## Gunz (Jun 15, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> War is ultimately a contest of competing wills.  The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period.  Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan,* they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired* (or Putin dies) and they go home.  I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now:  strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out.  It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.



True...but the trick with _winning by simply not losing_ is to stay alive long enough to win. Right now it's a straight-up slugging match. How long can Ukrainians stand the pummeling by superior forces before they're either beaten or they adopt hit n run, hide n wait like the NVA/VC/Taliban?


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## Marauder06 (Jun 15, 2022)

Gunz said:


> True...but the trick with _winning by simply not losing_ is to stay alive long enough to win. Right now it's a straight-up slugging match. How long can Ukrainians stand the pummeling by superior forces before they're either beaten or they adopt hit n run, hide n wait like the NVA/VC/Taliban?


The Ukrainians have everything they need to win against the Russians:

1) will to fight
2) support of a major world power (in their case, several world powers)
3) sanctuary in nearby secure areas, where they can rest, refit, resupply, and move fighters in ad infinatum.


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## pardus (Jun 15, 2022)

Two US Veterans now Russian POWs in Ukraine


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## AWP (Jun 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> Two US Veterans now Russian POWs in Ukraine


#FAFO

Dumbasses


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## Gunz (Jun 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> Two US Veterans now Russian POWs in Ukraine



It was just a matter of time.


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## ThunderHorse (Jun 15, 2022)

Well, the Russian Duma has been debating raising the military entrance age above 40. They're running out of men, and are out of willing men. There's a general summons going to every veteran under 50 apparently and the enlistment offering is pretty decent I suppose. Except for the likelihood of death. 

High Casualties: Russia Pulls Out All the Stops to Find Fresh Troops

Russia seems to be actually fighting according to its doctrine now. But at some point they run out of ordinance? Every city they take is almost complete rubble. Which will have an effect on the semi "pro-russian" Ukrainians. For the hardcore who actually identify as Russian, well they dgaf.


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## pardus (Jun 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Dumbasses


How so?


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## Marauder06 (Jun 16, 2022)

@pardus are you in Ukraine right now?


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## Marauder06 (Jun 16, 2022)

...the fuck?

Putin carries poop case when he travels outside Moscow to hide possible health problems: Report
Putin carries poop case when he travels outside Moscow to hide possible health problems: Report​


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## Jaknight (Jun 16, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> ...the fuck?
> 
> Putin carries poop case when he travels outside Moscow to hide possible health problems: Report
> Putin carries poop case when he travels outside Moscow to hide possible health problems: Report​


Didn’t bush also have his own special poop collector for when he was traveling as president???


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## Locksteady (Jun 16, 2022)

Nothing wrong with practicing good POOPSEC.


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## Marauder06 (Jun 17, 2022)

Headline conveys the  main points of the article:

Syria to become first to recognize Donetsk, Luhansk 'republics' in Ukraine in support of Russia's war


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## RackMaster (Jun 17, 2022)

A third American missing.

Third American missing in Ukraine is US Marine veteran Grady Kurpasi


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## AWP (Jun 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> How so?



It isn't their war. They are mercenary volunteers who went over because... emotions? Now, as the article stated, Putin has two American citizens in captivity. These clowns have given the Soviets a nice little PR coup, all so they could be freedom fighters?

I'm not going to be a hypocrite about this either. Think of all the folks who went to Kurdistan for what? Want to stay in the rea and help train or something, gotcha. Engage in front line combat, but it isn't your war? Morons. Want to proselytize for your god in Iraq or Afghanistan or wherever and find yourself in need of a SMU taxi ride? Dumb. Those hikers or mountain climbers or whoever in Iraq? Dumb. All of these people had no business being where they were. Well-meaning do-good aid workers and the like? Fantastic, your humanity now means that we're sending Americans into harms way to rescue your ass, because emotional "need" to be over there? No, big boy rules. Pays your money and takes your chances.

In other words: dumbasses.


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## pardus (Jun 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> @pardus are you in Ukraine right now?


Yeah, been here for 3 months now.


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## pardus (Jun 18, 2022)

AWP said:


> It isn't their war. They are mercenary volunteers who went over because... emotions? Now, as the article stated, Putin has two American citizens in captivity. These clowns have given the Soviets a nice little PR coup, all so they could be freedom fighters?
> 
> I'm not going to be a hypocrite about this either. Think of all the folks who went to Kurdistan for what? Want to stay in the rea and help train or something, gotcha. Engage in front line combat, but it isn't your war? Morons. Want to proselytize for your god in Iraq or Afghanistan or wherever and find yourself in need of a SMU taxi ride? Dumb. Those hikers or mountain climbers or whoever in Iraq? Dumb. All of these people had no business being where they were. Well-meaning do-good aid workers and the like? Fantastic, your humanity now means that we're sending Americans into harms way to rescue your ass, because emotional "need" to be over there? No, big boy rules. Pays your money and takes your chances.
> 
> In other words: dumbasses.


Understood and a hard disagree from me. 
They are not mercenaries at all, they are sworn members of the Ukrainian military. Not their war? This is a war for freedom, I’d say that’s right inline with American ideals. Russia has stated that this is the first phase of a plan to conquer other countries, very much akin to our friend Adolf, is it also your view that the Americans who joined the eagle squadron in WW2, or Canadian army pre 1917 were also dumbasses? Because I don’t see a difference. No Americans are being sent on rescue missions to get these guys, they knew the risks very well and decided to go regardless. Yeah I’m sure Putin is super happy to have Americans in his captivity, and that sucks, unfortunately it’s part of the game. 

I have been/am a logistics supplier, a trainer and have been, very deliberately, engaged in frontline combat here in Ukraine, so I’m one of those morons that you’re talking about. I’m not beating my chest being all “proud” of it like I’m a chosen one, it’s just my way of helping in a worthy cause, it’s more meaningful than anything I’ve ever done in either the New Zealand or US Armies. There are thousands of foreign volunteers here, (including unfortunately more than a fair share of clowns), but we are here for the worthiest cause of all, freedom, and I think that means something.


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## AWP (Jun 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Understood and a hard disagree from me.
> They are not mercenaries at all, they are sworn members of the Ukrainian military. Not their war? This is a war for freedom, I’d say that’s right inline with American ideals. Russia has stated that this is the first phase of a plan to conquer other countries, very much akin to our friend Adolf, is it also your view that the Americans who joined the eagle squadron in WW2, or Canadian army pre 1917 were also dumbasses? Because I don’t see a difference. No Americans are being sent on rescue missions to get these guys, they knew the risks very well and decided to go regardless. Yeah I’m sure Putin is super happy to have Americans in his captivity, and that sucks, unfortunately it’s part of the game.
> 
> I have been/am a logistics supplier, a trainer and have been, very deliberately, engaged in frontline combat here in Ukraine, so I’m one of those morons that you’re talking about. I’m not beating my chest being all “proud” of it like I’m a chosen one, it’s just my way of helping in a worthy cause, it’s more meaningful than anything I’ve ever done in either the New Zealand or US Armies. There are thousands of foreign volunteers here, (including unfortunately more than a fair share of clowns), but we are here for the worthiest cause of all, freedom, and I think that means something.



I'm going to shoot you a PM. I have a few questions if you're willing to answer would provide me with more info before I respond. You'll either put wind in my sails or take it out, but I'm fine with either outcome.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Jun 18, 2022)

Regardless, stay safe T, you only have one life to live... But if the opportunity arises again, I'd love to have another beer with you.

Let me know if there is a way to send you something.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Jun 18, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm going to shoot you a PM. I have a few questions if you're willing to answer would provide me with more info before I respond. You'll either put wind in my sails or take it out, but I'm fine with either outcome.









😋🤣❤


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## pardus (Jun 19, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm going to shoot you a PM. I have a few questions if you're willing to answer would provide me with more info before I respond. You'll either put wind in my sails or take it out, but I'm fine with either outcome.


Questions from AWP, I think they are important and the answers are ones that would benefit others so here we go…

“Are you still in the Guard? “
No I ETS’d last year. 
“You are a sworn member of the Ukrainian military" oath, contract, etc.?”
I am not, though most volunteers are. I have a VA pension and when I asked the VA if signing up with a foreign army would affect that, I did not get a straight answer from them, only that being a contractor was OK, so I have refused to sign a contract. This has placed some significant restrictions on my actions here. 
“Do you wear a Ukrainian uniform? Have a Ukrainian ID card?”
 I do wear a uniform when I’m doing military work, the Ukrainian army is short of uniforms so there is a mix of Ukrainian camo and whatever else you have. I can’t get the ID card because I’m not a sworn member, everyone who is sworn in has one though. 
“Are they paying you? Cash, gold, stock options, whatever.” 
No because I have no contract, everyone who is sworn in receives regular Ukrainian military wages however. 
“Are you pulling a trigger or doing non-combatant type stuff on the front lines like medic or CASEVAC?”
Trigger pulling/medical, same role as a US Army combat medic. 
“The Americans and other foreigners you're around, good or bad people, how many were combat arms or support in their country?”
Most are just normal people who are motivated to do the right thing and stop the USSR’s westward expansion. That said there are a few people here that are a little unhinged, but they tend to self deselect or are fired by the units they are with. I could write more on this but another time. Most are infantry I’d say, with some support folks. Maybe 70/30 ratio. 
“Are those former support types now at the front as infantry?”
Most yes. 
“What percentage in combat, in your experience, are experienced pros from a combat arms background vs. support types of all flavors now working as infantry?”
Experienced pros? hmm that’s tough, 30% maybe. Vast majority are military, some are combat vets, most are not though. 
The combat here is nothing like GWOT combat, we are the underdogs in a BIG way. Most combat is sitting in a trench being shelled until you either get hit or your unit eventually pulls off the line weeks later.


----------



## Gunz (Jun 19, 2022)

@pardus  found a picture of you.  The beard’s about right. Keep your head down


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jun 21, 2022)

Ben Stiller to the rescue, I guess?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538971649600634885


----------



## Gunz (Jun 21, 2022)

Maybe he can teach the Ukrainians how to play Dodgeball…

Zelensky might like a live performance by Simple Jack


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 21, 2022)

I'm surprised that Putin has allowed Zelensky to live this long.  You know if Putin used any significant amount of assets, he'd be dead.  He'd just drop a missile or ten on his grid square.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 21, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I'm surprised that Putin has allowed Zelensky to live this long.  You know if Putin used any significant amount of assets, he'd be dead.  He'd just drop a missile or ten on his grid square.


There would probably no bigger martyr than Zelensky right now than any currently-living person.


----------



## Cookie_ (Jun 21, 2022)

I think it's, for lack of better term, a missed opportunity on Putin's part.

If they'd successfully assassinated Zelensky early in the war they likely would have gotten away with it, but after the first few weeks I think that option has become untenable.

Once the war moved from initial invasion to military support rolling into Ukraine, I think Putin's space to do that without a NATO response had faded.


----------



## SpitfireV (Jun 22, 2022)

Supposedly at the start of the war a bunch of Wagner guys got rolled who's job it was to kill him. F6.


----------



## Gunz (Jun 22, 2022)

Need artillery? This will have to do for now


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Jun 22, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Maybe he can teach the Ukrainians how to play Dodgeball…



If you can dodge a wrench....you can dodge a Hind...


----------



## Devildoc (Jun 22, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I think it's, for lack of better term, a missed opportunity on Putin's part.
> 
> If they'd successfully assassinated Zelensky early in the war they likely would have gotten away with it, but after the first few weeks I think that option has become untenable.
> 
> Once the war moved from initial invasion to military support rolling into Ukraine, I think Putin's space to do that without a NATO response had faded.



Agreed.  I think Russia's plans never went to plan, and now they are, like, on Plan R1.5.  I think kill, capture, or control was in the early plans and when could do none of that, they had to change tactics.


----------



## Jaknight (Jun 22, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Supposedly at the start of the war a bunch of Wagner guys got rolled who's job it was to kill him. F6.


Also that he managed to survive thanks to someone in FSB leaking stuff supposedly


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jun 22, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I'm surprised that Putin has allowed Zelensky to live this long.  You know if Putin used any significant amount of assets, he'd be dead.  He'd just drop a missile or ten on his grid square.


He tried the 'ol covert way about 20x  apparently...GRU ain't got shit on Zelensky's PSD.


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 23, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> He tried the 'ol covert way about 20x  apparently...GRU ain't got shit on Zelensky's PSD.



That's covert, they are in full scale war now.  All he needs is a location and use multiple strategic assets to level the grid square.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jun 24, 2022)

Ukraine doing a strategic withdrawal from Sievierodonetsk.  80% of the city is kaput, so giving the rest to the Russians isn't much of a loss IMO when you're able to preserve combat power.

Live Updates: Ukraine Is Withdrawing From Sievierodonetsk


----------



## RackMaster (Jun 28, 2022)

Interesting interview.

This guy has zero concept of persec.  Between giving names of his team, showing his face and there's even interviews with his mother with a quick google search.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 28, 2022)




----------



## ThunderHorse (Jun 28, 2022)

So, um, one of Russia's reasons behind targeting this shopping mall was that "it was not functioning."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541837218599280641
And apparently Vlad doesn't like ice hockey?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541490777779568641


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 28, 2022)

Well this is an interesting development:

Turkey drops objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, removing major hurdle to two nations joining the alliance


----------



## Devildoc (Jun 28, 2022)

Waiting for the other shoe to drop.

What do they want? What's in it for them? What is their play?


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jun 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Waiting for the other shoe to drop.
> 
> What do they want? What's in it for them? What is their play?


Spitballing, pretty sure there is a huge Muslim population that might be concentrated along that corridor that connect them to Russia. Turkey might be able to expand it's field of influence with a weakened Russia. ( Dagestan?)


----------



## CQB (Jun 28, 2022)

Had to share this from Instagram. One wag wrote “Meal Team 6.”


----------



## SpitfireV (Jun 29, 2022)

I think with Turkey it's as simple as equipment. They wanted F35s but they got...shot down and it didn't happen. I doubt they'll get those but maybe some block 60 F16s?


----------



## CQB (Jun 29, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I think with Turkey it's as simple as equipment. They wanted F35s but they got...shot down and it didn't happen. I doubt they'll get those but maybe some block 60 F16s?


In todays national daily Turkey has accused Sweden & Finland of offering a safe haven to "Kurdish militants." It was a little vague but Turkey has "got what it wanted."


----------



## Locksteady (Jun 30, 2022)

CQB said:


> In todays national daily Turkey has accused Sweden & Finland of offering a safe haven to "Kurdish militants." It was a little vague but Turkey has "got what it wanted."


Part of the deal apparently involved the extradition of 30+ people Turkey identified as militants to itself as a nation.

Whatever the National Daily is saying now is what Turkey had accused Sweden and Finland of doing up until they came to the recent agreement that resulted in Turkey overturning its 'nay' bid to both Sweden and Finland joining NATO.


----------



## Gunz (Jun 30, 2022)

Turkey always has to be the little bitch.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jun 30, 2022)

Sweden and Norway must reeeaallly want into NATO…


----------



## CQB (Jun 30, 2022)

Paris is worth a Mass.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 2, 2022)

In a continuation of Putin Hates Hockey. The state police have arrested a member of their national team for avoiding military service. Lol wtf. 

Flyers goalie prospect detained in Russia for alleged military evasion


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 2, 2022)

I thought that high fuel prices in the US were due to "Putin's War?" (from my Twitter feed)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 2, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I thought that high fuel prices in the US were due to "Putin's War?" (from my Twitter feed)
> 
> View attachment 39797


Trump was deplatformed for less.


----------



## pardus (Jul 3, 2022)

POTUS needs to reverse his oil policies that stopped our oil independence and do it fucking yesterday.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Jul 3, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I thought that high fuel prices in the US were due to "Putin's War?" (from my Twitter feed)
> 
> View attachment 39797


Did I miss something important? Was it declared that we are at war? Is anyone outside of Ukraine and embargoed Russia in a declared war? 

Why should any other country, or more specifically a for profit company, care about our situation? If he wants to help the people of the United States, turn on our tap. More domestic oil, means global oil goes down in price to be more competitive.

This is the equivalent of starving to death because your neighbor won’t share, while your pantry is fully stocked.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 3, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Did I miss something important? Was it declared that we are at war? Is anyone outside of Ukraine and embargoed Russia in a declared war?
> 
> Why should any other country, or more specifically a for profit company, care about our situation? If he wants to help the people of the United States, turn on our tap. More domestic oil, means global oil goes down in price to be more competitive.
> 
> This is the equivalent of starving to death because your neighbor won’t share, while your pantry is fully stocked.


I agree that we should become energy independent.  IIRC, there was a time not long ago that we were.

High gas prices are not a bug in the Biden-led system, they are a feature, intended to drive "green" energy and promote the "liberal world order."


----------



## Cookie_ (Jul 3, 2022)

This is a case of the "Why not both"? meme.

Oil production was low during the pandemic, it has been increasing. It's not peak production levels, (which was about 13 million barrels a day), but that's why there's that release of 1 million barrels a day from the strategic reserve. 

I doubt we ever hit energy independence while oil is our primary fuel source. 



> Americans on average use about 21 million barrels of oil daily, with about 40% of the consumption devoted to gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
> 
> Domestic oil production is equal to more than half of the country’s usage, but high prices have not led companies to return to their pre-pandemic levels of output. The U.S. is producing on average 11.7 million barrels daily, down from 13 million barrels in early 2020.



As for the oil companies, they're seeing record breaking profits while slowing on new drilling.


----------



## TLDR20 (Jul 3, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I thought that high fuel prices in the US were due to "Putin's War?" (from my Twitter feed)
> 
> View attachment 39797






JedisonsDad said:


> Did I miss something important? Was it declared that we are at war? Is anyone outside of Ukraine and embargoed Russia in a declared war?
> 
> Why should any other country, or more specifically a for profit company, care about our situation? If he wants to help the people of the United States, turn on our tap. More domestic oil, means global oil goes down in price to be more competitive.
> 
> This is the equivalent of starving to death because your neighbor won’t share, while your pantry is fully stocked.



Well when we are selling our Strategic oil reserves to lower prices and they aren’t reducing the price to consumers it is a little fucked up.

Domestic production is about 2 million barrels short of consumption. What is he supposed to do? Drill the oil himself? Oil companies are reaping massive profits right now. Massive. They have a commodity that we have to pay for. It is driving the price of everything up. They don’t give a shit. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 3, 2022)

Don't even need to drill more, just need to uncap wells. This administration's implementation of policies and rhetoric demonizing oil companies is the problem.


TLDR20 said:


> Well when we are selling our Strategic oil reserves to lower prices and they aren’t reducing the price to consumers it is a little fucked up.
> 
> Domestic production is about 2 million barrels short of consumption. What is he supposed to do? Drill the oil himself? Oil companies are reaping massive profits right now. Massive. They have a commodity that we have to pay for. It is driving the price of everything up. They don’t give a shit.
> 
> Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)



Shut his damn mouth for once? Like legitimately resign or stop talking. So much for bringing the world back to "normal". If anything life has trended in such a way under this regime to where we welcomely encourage activism in the workplace for one type of person...but the other is more likely to get fired.

Also, no real  point releasing 1M Barrels from the Strategic reserve, that's not going to do much. Heck gas companies could charge far less if they decided to. Depending on the delivery contracts they had purchased. We have over 415M Barrels in storage. Last week that increased by 2.5M. Peak cheap gas prices was when we were maxed at storage capacity. Our max is close to 800M Barrels.


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Jul 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I agree that we should become energy independent.  IIRC, there was a time not long ago that we were.
> 
> High gas prices are not a bug in the Biden-led system, they are a feature, intended to drive "green" energy and promote the "liberal world order."




Just give it time Sir....


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 4, 2022)

CQB said:


> Paris is worth a Mass.


Love the historical reference.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 10, 2022)

Munitions must be really hard to come by in Russia.  Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Munitions must be really hard to come by in Russia.  Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official


Interesting.  I wasn’t aware of this capability, thanks for posting that link.  

Lots of things can be shot at lots of things, it doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Munitions must be really hard to come by in Russia.  Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official


I've been hearing that the HIMAR's we sent to the Ukrainians have been really amazing at targeting Russian ammo depots, leading to shortages of arty for Russian forces. There are even rumors of Russians abandoning supply bases due to the effectiveness of the HIMAR system.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 10, 2022)

Exclusive to the Times, so I'm only seeing what's on twitter: Ukraine has one million ready for fightback to recapture south

https://twitter.com/i/events/1546186295654989828

And considering that Putin has locked up a second National team hockey player for evading military service...I suspect that even with the territorial gains in southern Ukraine, the war is not going well for the commies.


----------



## AWP (Jul 10, 2022)

I want the Soviets to lose more than I want the Ukraine to win. For the...what are up to now? 55 billion or something?...that we've earmarked for the Ukraine, think of what we could do here in the US with a fraction of that money.

Fucking Congress...if you asked them to send a billion to the UA, they wouldn't blink. Ask for a billion to address mental health in this country and they will lose their minds. As much as we scream about our children, for the children, we're sending a lot of money elsewhere to help other people's children.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 10, 2022)

AWP said:


> I want the Soviets to lose more than I want the Ukraine to win. For the...what are up to now? 55 billion or something?...that we've earmarked for the Ukraine, think of what we could do here in the US with a fraction of that money.
> 
> Fucking Congress...if you asked them to send a billion to the UA, they wouldn't blink. Ask for a billion to address mental health in this country and they will lose their minds. As much as we scream about our children, for the children, we're sending a lot of money elsewhere to help other people's children.


I don't think we've delivered even a fraction of what we've appropriated. 

We certainly do send a lot of money overseas to support freedom...and do shit to education our children here what that actually means.


----------



## 757 (Jul 11, 2022)

I found this video from the Austrian Military Academy and thought it gave a good summary of recent events, for those interested.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 11, 2022)

Looks like Russia having hard time: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546420957925056512


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 12, 2022)

Zelensky responds to Canada releasing turbines to Nord Stream.  Doesn't surprise me, they did this but I'm sure Putin already looked at Canada as weak.






U.S. backs Canada's decision to return Russia-Germany pipeline turbines


----------



## Gunz (Jul 12, 2022)

757 said:


> I found this video from the Austrian Military Academy and thought it gave a good summary of recent events, for those interested.



Excellent. Thank you for sharing that.


----------



## Gunz (Jul 12, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Zelensky responds to Canada releasing turbines to Nord Stream.  Doesn't surprise me, they did this but I'm sure Putin already looked at Canada as weak.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 12, 2022)

@Gunz he prefers this look.


----------



## Gunz (Jul 12, 2022)

Jesus.


----------



## Kaldak (Jul 12, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Jesus.



I think it's Shiva, Vishnu, Karina, etc over there 😉


----------



## DasBoot (Jul 12, 2022)

I’m a pretty open minded, big Lebowski type who agrees with a decent amount of the lefts policies in theory (not application), but my God do they suck at governing and practicing what they preach. Trudeau embodies all I despise about that portion of the spectrum.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 12, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> I’m a pretty open minded, big Lebowski type who agrees with a decent amount of the lefts policies in theory (not application), but my God do they suck at governing and practicing what they preach. Trudeau embodies all I despise about that portion of the spectrum.



It's the same for both sides, the extremes are louder than the centrists and are dictating policies.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 12, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> It's the same for both sides, the extremes are louder than the centrists and are dictating policies.


Horseshoe theory!


----------



## DasBoot (Jul 12, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> It's the same for both sides, the extremes are louder than the centrists and are dictating policies.


Is there an extreme centrist party? Because I’ll join that in a heart beat.


----------



## TLDR20 (Jul 12, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> Is there an extreme centrist party? Because I’ll join that in heart beat.



Me too bud


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 12, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Zelensky responds to Canada releasing turbines to Nord Stream.  Doesn't surprise me, they did this but I'm sure Putin already looked at Canada as weak.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Are these turbines the same ones that supply a critical portion of natural gas to places like Germany and other EU members? Cause the green technologies that those environmental retards pushed ain't gonna keep them warm this winter, they need those turbines.

For cross thread points with the energy thread, alotta the EU sold out to the Russians for cheap dirty energy; all while pushing green/carbon neutral energy (solar, wind, etc). Turns out this green energy technology is overhyped, under preforms, and under delivers, it's basically a huge scam. 

You are right though, US and CAN leadership is weak. That said, the rest of the EU is hooked on cheap Russian energy like a crack whore is to Hunter Biden's affections.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 13, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> Is there an extreme centrist party? Because I’ll join that in heart beat.



I think most of us would.  I consider myself more classical Liberal/Libertarian but we don't have any viable parties in that box.

If you put aside what the media puts out about our Conservative Party, it's pretty centrist now. Especially since our version of the Tea Party showed up and pulled away the most extreme right with them.  We still have the religious zealots, they can speak and represent their constituents but they don't dictate policy.


----------



## Ludicman (Jul 13, 2022)

Chinese planned Naval exercise off Venezuela represents a future national security threat along with their current actions concerning Taiwan. You bet they're watching events in Ukraine and carefully digesting our response.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 14, 2022)

Russian ammo dump on fire.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547321797267292167


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 14, 2022)

Since they received the HIMARS, the Ukrainian's have been destroying ammo depots left and right.  I believe the US is sending more systems.

Russia news: Ukraine blitzes eight ammo dumps in one day - NATO arms prove decisive | World | News | Express.co.uk


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 15, 2022)

Sooooo... it's looks like someone is selling Javelins and NLAWS. Could be RUS propaganda, but I've been hearing rumors that Javelins have been making their way to Syria and the ME. Anyone speak the language, also is that a CLU at 1:14?






Edit/Add on: I'm retarded. High chance this is Russian propaganda, the youtube page is filled with pro Russian bullshit. I'll leave this up as a lesson to myself as to why I should verify every facet of something before taking it a face value.


----------



## AWP (Jul 15, 2022)

I am shocked foreign weapon donations gifts bribes sales would find their way into the hands of unsavory characters. Oh no!

Anyway...


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> I am shocked foreign weapon donations gifts bribes sales would find their way into the hands of unsavory characters. Oh no!
> 
> Anyway...


Too bad we don't skin the fuckers who take advantage of our generosity. Taliban gets a few billion in arms and gear, illiterate goat herders get javelins, meanwhile I'm scrimping on ammo/reloading components.

All while our political elite pocket the remainder, feed us green bullshit, and make nice with our enemies.


----------



## AWP (Jul 15, 2022)

Iran and Nicaragua have entered the chat.


----------



## Gunz (Jul 15, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Sooooo... it's looks like someone is selling Javelins and NLAWS. Could be RUS propaganda, but I've been hearing rumors that Javelins have been making their way to Syria and the ME.




Any place there's a war there's a Black Market. Plenty of eager buyers...plenty of motivation to take the risk. From past experience, I'm about certain there's a very healthy illicit arms trade going on...on _both_ sides. These weapons will pop up in some strange places in years to come.

In Vietnam, the right amount of Greenbacks and you could get anything.


----------



## Jaknight (Jul 15, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Sooooo... it's looks like someone is selling Javelins and NLAWS. Could be RUS propaganda, but I've been hearing rumors that Javelins have been making their way to Syria and the ME. Anyone speak the language, also is that a CLU at 1:14?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How do they even get ahold of these weapons? Does a Ukrainian Supply Guy just “lose” them?


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 15, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> How do they even get ahold of these weapons? Does a Ukrainian Supply Guy just “lose” them?



Farmer's Market is open on Saturday.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 16, 2022)

Apparently Russia lacks the technology to make French Fries. Producers of fries refusing to supply to Russia, McDonald's successor says


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 17, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Apparently Russia lacks the technology to make French Fries. Producers of fries refusing to supply to Russia, McDonald's successor says


I used to know a guy who worked in that exact field. McDonalds potatoes for french fries are a very specific breed that have very specific growth and harvesting requirements. Guy I knew used to travel to different countries to trouble shoot potato growing operations.

There is a crazy amount of complexity that goes into a burger and fries. To tie this to the energy thread, if Russia is having these sorts of problems with fries imagine what's gonna happen to their petro and petrochemical industry. Russia was so corrupt that most of the talent running those ops were foreign nationals from US and multinational drilling companies.

Their oil industry is fucked.


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Jul 17, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> I used to know a guy who worked in that exact field. McDonalds potatoes for french fries are a very specific breed that have very specific growth and harvesting requirements. Guy I knew used to travel to different countries to trouble shoot potato growing operations.



Potatoes dont Grow in frozen ground....this is why we changed Vodka formula Comrade!!


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Jul 17, 2022)

SpongeBob*24 said:


> Potatoes dont Grow in frozen ground....this is why we changed Vodka formula Comrade!!


Oddly enough, growing up Yuri Bezmenov mentioned that the USSR blamed potato blight on the West; when it was their own poor management. Funny how history repeats itself.

As Ukraine starts to reform and push modern weapons and systems to the front, I kinda wonder how bad supply issues will get in Russia. I wonder if the Russian people will force a change in their own govt or if they'll just suffer through it.

Edit/Add on:
Forgive me board, for I grammar like a tard sometimes.


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 18, 2022)

This is fucked.  I'm willing to bet they were trying to negotiate an end to the conflict.  Zelensky has "tin pot" written all over him. 

Ukraine war: Zelensky suspends security chief and top prosecutor


----------



## RackMaster (Jul 26, 2022)

So when do we build a wall?

Russia to Opt Out of International Space Station After 2024


----------



## Gunz (Jul 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> So when do we build a wall?
> 
> Russia to Opt Out of International Space Station After 2024



Interesting. Taking their toys, unassing the AO. Good news, as far as I'm concerned. Let Putin waste trillions of rubles building his own space station while maintaining a war in Ukraine...which I suspect may still be going on in 2024.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> This is fucked.  I'm willing to bet they were trying to negotiate an end to the conflict.  Zelensky has "tin pot" written all over him.
> 
> Ukraine war: Zelensky suspends security chief and top prosecutor



Well if the AG and the Director of the CIA are attempting to broker a peace treaty in secret without the President's knowledge they'd be sent to GITMO.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well if the AG and the Director of the CIA are attempting to broker a peace treaty in secret without the President's knowledge they'd be sent to GITMO.


Not if the president were President Trump...


----------



## AWP (Jul 26, 2022)

How in the FUCK is reality not considered satire at this point?

I could make more sense of the world with 10 pitchers of beer (even bad beer, like Corona or any Budweiser product) , 4 plates of nachos, 3 buckets of wings, and 5 randomly selected Americans than any single group within our land. Fight me. Tell me I'm wrong.

Our elected officials are fucking twats...and what's worse is we keep placing them in that position.

So, who are the idiots here?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 27, 2022)

I can tell you that our government sucks, a whole lot.  U.S. offers deal to Russia for Griner release

Viktor Bout for a nobody.


----------



## Marauder06 (Jul 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I can tell you that our government sucks, a whole lot.  U.S. offers deal to Russia for Griner release
> 
> Viktor Bout for a nobody.


still a better deal than the one we made with the Haqqani Network for Bowe Berghdahl


----------



## Cookie_ (Jul 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I can tell you that our government sucks, a whole lot.  U.S. offers deal to Russia for Griner release
> 
> Viktor Bout for a nobody.



I don't really care about Griner, but I will say this seems to be a situation of a celebrity cause actually helping someone who needs it, since Paul Whelan is being freed as well.

As best I can tell, Bout being released in a prisoner swap has been talked about since at least 2020; the thought being that being removed from the arms game so long had essentially dried up any contacts or connections he would have had to utilize, making him worthless in that world.


----------



## pardus (Jul 29, 2022)

I just watched to footage of the Russian cunt castrating the Ukrainian PW. Don’t watch it, it’s fucking horrific. 
Russians are nothing but fucking filth.


----------



## Andoni (Jul 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> being that being removed from the arms game so long had essentially dried up any contacts or connections he would have had to utilize, making him worthless in that world.


He's going to be back in the game as soon as he gets done fucking his wife/girlfriend/mistress.

 It's a lifetime occupation.

I think whomever analyzed this (obviously not saying you, @Cookie_ - is woefully out of touch with arms movement and
 international violent criminals.

He's returning with bells on. During his incarceration his "shit" was either being tended to, or "stolen" and either scenerio requires his attention, and only an idiot would not rebuild

The people supervising his SME's  may believe he is "isolated" and he may appear isolated, but that's because he's better then the people who think this is accurate. They know it. They just haven't figured out how.

One thing I don't think people get is, that international violent criminals, warlords, terrorists, dictators-- they are driven and successful in being terrible for a reason.

Al-Shabbab in Africa, when they eventually get into the "big" terror circuit- won't care about how long it takes him to get whatever. Money talks.

Edited to add El-Shabbab, an Al-Queda affiliate


----------



## Gunz (Jul 29, 2022)

Andoni said:


> He's going to be back in the game as soon as he gets done fucking his wife/girlfriend/mistress.
> 
> It's a lifetime occupation.
> 
> ...



He's got so many connections to the GRU, the Russian military and Putin's government--not to mention foreign actors worldwide...this is just a bump in his road.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I don't really care about Griner, but I will say this seems to be a situation of a celebrity cause actually helping someone who needs it, since Paul Whelan is being freed as well.
> 
> As best I can tell, Bout being released in a prisoner swap has been talked about since at least 2020; the thought being that being removed from the arms game so long had essentially dried up any contacts or connections he would have had to utilize, making him worthless in that world.



That's an all time bad take for anyone thinking he'll be out of the game. He'll either be killed immediately or embraced and will get back at it like @Andoni said.

Hope is neither a method or a course of action, and this administration seems to operate on it being so.


----------



## Andoni (Jul 29, 2022)

It's almost like his incarceration was "just for show* and releasing him may cause more work for other people, but doesn't really matter. Weird.


----------



## AWP (Jul 29, 2022)

I kind of like our track record of trading mass murderers for shitbags.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 29, 2022)

Sounds like fun. 

Wagner deployed like normal army units on Ukraine front line: UK


----------



## Gunz (Jul 29, 2022)

Putin must be hard-up for cannon fodder. 

Wagner’s value to Putin has always been as a deployable “special” unit that can conduct FID and influence host nations (and whack their trouble-makers for them) while giving him deniability. 

Maybe the Ukrainians can whack a few Wagners.


----------



## Blizzard (Jul 29, 2022)

So as to remove any doubt...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553108898394951683


----------



## AWP (Jul 30, 2022)

Longest 48 hour war evvveeerrrrr


----------



## Gunz (Jul 31, 2022)

Russian Army recruiting station with happy inflatable soldier with porn stash as incentive.


----------



## Stukiwi (Jul 31, 2022)

pardus said:


> I just watched to footage of the Russian cunt castrating the Ukrainian PW. Don’t watch it, it’s fucking horrific.
> Russians are nothing but fucking filth.


I just read online that he (the Russian)  that did this is now dead


----------



## DasBoot (Jul 31, 2022)




----------



## Jaknight (Jul 31, 2022)

Stukiwi said:


> I just read online that he (the Russian)  that did this is now dead


That was fast


----------



## Dame (Aug 2, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> That was fast


True or not, they have to put it out there.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 2, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Aug 2, 2022)

Stukiwi said:


> I just read online that he (the Russian)  that did this is now dead


I have not heard that from my sources, can you post a link?

We know who he is (Vitaly Aroshanov, age 39), we know his cell #, passport #, his address, employment history (Repairman), and his family, so he won't disappear.


----------



## Cookie_ (Aug 2, 2022)

pardus said:


> I have not heard that from my sources, can you post a link?
> 
> We know who he is (Vitaly Aroshanov, age 39), we know his cell #, passport #, his address, employment history (Repairman), and his family, so he won't disappear.


I don't think it's been confirmed yet, just lots of posts going around claiming as much


----------



## Gordus (Aug 3, 2022)

The World Needs Russia to Win the Conflict in Ukraine. Here’s Why?

Interesting take and I also desire peace, but I disagree that Russia should win. They never cared about "balance of power" and they'll just keep pushing, especialy if they succeed. It was always about dominance. Appropriate as many resources and territorries, establish as much foothold and influence, as many veins as physicaly possible. Be it in the Arctic, Black Sea, Syria or what other places they got their eyes on. I wish some people would stop acting like Russia didn't seek hegemony and was just a counter weight to Western ambitions. The denial is becoming very tiresome. A worse and mostly undesired alternative is what they are and have been to most neighbouring countries, for centuries now. I doubt, that reality and outside perceptoin of it, will change any time soon.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 4, 2022)

I mean... that's a techniques, I guess.

Task & Purpose - A soldier in Ukraine using a tire to take... | By Task & Purpose | A soldier in Ukraine using a tire to take care of an anti-personnel mine.   Update the safety brief.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 4, 2022)

Russia related:

Statement by President Joe Biden on the Sentencing of Wrongfully Detained American Brittney Griner | The White House

Maybe I’m not read up enough, but how was she “wrongfully detained”? Did she not carry illegal drugs into a country that prohibits them?


----------



## Salt USMC (Aug 4, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Russia related:
> 
> Statement by President Joe Biden on the Sentencing of Wrongfully Detained American Brittney Griner | The White House
> 
> Maybe I’m not read up enough, but how was she “wrongfully detained”? Did she not carry illegal drugs into a country that prohibits them?


Russia is detaining her on distribution charges, which is clearly bullshit considering that she just had a few vape cartridges.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 4, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I mean... that's a techniques, I guess.
> 
> Task & Purpose - A soldier in Ukraine using a tire to take... | By Task & Purpose | A soldier in Ukraine using a tire to take care of an anti-personnel mine.   Update the safety brief.



Improvise, adapt and overcome. 😎🤣


----------



## Brill (Aug 4, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Russia is detaining her on distribution charges, which is clearly bullshit considering that she just had a few vape cartridges.



Russia isn’t known for blind justice. She caught up in the international game.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 4, 2022)

Brill said:


> Russia isn’t known for blind justice. *She caught up in the international game*.


----------



## Salt USMC (Aug 5, 2022)

Brill said:


> Russia isn’t known for blind justice. She caught up in the international game.


Ayup


----------



## Blizzard (Aug 5, 2022)

pardus said:


> I have not heard that from my sources, can you post a link?
> 
> We know who he is (Vitaly Aroshanov, age 39), we know his cell #, passport #, his address, employment history (Repairman), and his family, so he won't disappear.


Is this the same guy?
Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW - bellingcat


----------



## pardus (Aug 5, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Is this the same guy?
> Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW - bellingcat


Same one.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 5, 2022)

Man, there are some capable hobbyists out there on the interwebs.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 6, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555822448377053184

So we're about to have a siege in Kherson, except it's going the opposite way with UKA laying siege to the Russians.  Obviously there will be a lot less shelling of a city.  But it will be interesting to see how much Putin throws in relief there.  Right now it seems highly likely without a relief column or amphibious landing to reinforce that he will lose roughly 10k soldiers.  Currently he's re-deploying 9 BTG's from Donbas to Kherson. We'll see what happens, but like the largest single battle of the War is going to reach its precipice.  But if UKA can retake Kherson there is a legitimate chance of securing the south bank and re-securing Southern Ukraine.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 6, 2022)

Institute for the Study of War interactive map, updated daily.

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 6, 2022)

This is pretty great.  Institute for the Study of War

Going so well that the Republic of Sakha (Far Eastern Military District) has been added to the list of military unit generating regions for this war.  So, people of Asian ethnicity, that you generally wouldn't think of as Russian, are going to be dying en masse for Moscow!  Hail the Motherland! 

I just learned all about the Yakhut people on the Wiki!


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 6, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> This is pretty great.  Institute for the Study of War
> 
> Going so well that the Republic of Sakha (Far Eastern Military District) has been added to the list of military unit generating regions for this war.  So, people of Asian ethnicity, that you generally wouldn't think of as Russian, are going to be dying en masse for Moscow!  Hail the Motherland!
> 
> I just learned all about the Yakhut people on the Wiki!


They can team up with the 100,000 North Koreans that Li'l Kim just offered up.


----------



## AWP (Aug 6, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> They can team up with the 100,000 North Koreans that Li'l Kim just offered up.



The Soviets could put them on half rations and the NK's would put on weight.


----------



## pardus (Aug 6, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555822448377053184
> 
> So we're about to have a siege in Kherson, except it's going the opposite way with UKA laying siege to the Russians.  Obviously there will be a lot less shelling of a city.  But it will be interesting to see how much Putin throws in relief there.  Right now it seems highly likely without a relief column or amphibious landing to reinforce that he will lose roughly 10k soldiers.  Currently he's re-deploying 9 BTG's from Donbas to Kherson. We'll see what happens, but like the largest single battle of the War is going to reach its precipice.  But if UKA can retake Kherson there is a legitimate chance of securing the south bank and re-securing Southern Ukraine.


Ukraine needs to step it's game up, HIMARS alone aren't going to do it for them and it seems like they are relying too much on that weapons system to break the Russian line. 


Marauder06 said:


> They can team up with the 100,000 North Koreans that Li'l Kim just offered up.



That could be a major win win for Russia and NK and a disaster for Ukraine.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> That could be a major win win for Russia and NK and a disaster for Ukraine.


I think it's one of the best things that could happen.  I'm writing an article right now about why it won't, though.


----------



## pardus (Aug 6, 2022)

FYI

www.weareukraine.info


----------



## Salt USMC (Aug 6, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I think it's one of the best things that could happen.  I'm writing an article right now about why it won't, though.


How long is a bus ride from Pyongyang to Kharkiv?  Because that’s the only way that NK could afford to send 100k troops to Ukraine


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 8, 2022)

Russia has suspended access to facilities that were part of the START agreement.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 10, 2022)

Ukraine getting it in: Ukraine war: Crimea airbase badly damaged, satellite images show


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Aug 12, 2022)

AWP said:


> The Soviets could put them on half rations and the NK's would put on weight.


Something that I didn't know about NK is that (according to vlog I saw on Youtube...yeah, yeah, I know) NK is still using "nightsoil" as fertilizer the result is that what little food anyone gets over there, including soldiers whom I would assume get more and better rations than civilians, are riddled with parasites. That would explain why SK doctors who treated an NK border guard defector were appalled by his condition. Being a dumb-ass civilian, I would think that the NK border guards would be the best-fed of their army. If that's the best they can put on the field, it makes me wonder just how effective they would be fighting for their homeland and the Fearless Fat Kid, let alone in foreign territory.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 12, 2022)

MIkeH92467 said:


> NK is still using "nightsoil" as fertilizer



Common in India, Pakistan, Cambodia, China, Vietnam etc anywhere there are poor farmers.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 12, 2022)

MIkeH92467 said:


> Something that I didn't know about NK is that (according to vlog I saw on Youtube...yeah, yeah, I know) NK is still using "nightsoil" as fertilizer the result is that what little food anyone gets over there, including soldiers whom I would assume get more and better rations than civilians, are riddled with parasites. That would explain why SK doctors who treated an NK border guard defector were appalled by his condition. Being a dumb-ass civilian, I would think that the NK border guards would be the best-fed of their army. If that's the best they can put on the field, it makes me wonder just how effective they would be fighting for their homeland and the Fearless Fat Kid, let alone in foreign territory.





Gunz said:


> Common in India, Pakistan, Cambodia, China, Vietnam etc anywhere there are poor farmers.


Given the shortage of raw materials to make chemical fertilizers, I expect night soil use to become more common in the developing and possibly developed world.

Nitrogen and potassium based fertilizers are all in short supply thanks to Russia and Europe sucking on Putin's teat. The developing world is gonna take a larger hit though, they're fucked.


----------



## CQB (Aug 14, 2022)

Add ammonium nitrate to the above list along with plastic, steel & concrete. Without those, modern life gets a little difficult.


----------



## Jaknight (Aug 20, 2022)

Apparently Alex Duggin’s Daughter got blown up in Moscow. 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561119308557737984


----------



## DasBoot (Aug 20, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Apparently Alex Duggin’s Daughter got blown up in Moscow.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561119308557737984


That’s going to escalate things.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Aug 20, 2022)

I’m seeing a number of NATO and CIA related conspiracies being linked to this.  If only there was someone on the site who could explain those to us…if only.

🤔






<click me>


----------



## DasBoot (Aug 20, 2022)

The man who provided the road map to war for Putin has his daughter assassinated… in a very “ALLAHUAK(throat clearing noise)BAR” manner…

He is likely close with Putin and this could well strike a personal blow to the Kremlin and lead to a very negative escalation. 

- I would like to hear smarter people than myself like @Marauder06 who could elaborate on the connection between Putin and Dugin. 

-Part of me believes that the closeness between the two men has largely been a product of Western media speculation (not a conspiracy, just a free-media assumption). Is this correct or not?


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 21, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> I’m seeing a number of NATO and CIA related conspiracies being linked to this.  If only there was someone on the site who could explain those to us…if only.
> 
> 🤔
> 
> ...


Fuck if I know. Ask Brian Seltzer (fat bald dude) over at CNN or maybe try CNN+?

Maybe try looking up some of Peter Zeihan's musings on Russia. If you think Russia is unstable now, wait until winter hits, pipes start freezing, and oil production plummets. Dolla dolla bills gonna be in short supply esse and when money is tight... shit gets real.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 21, 2022)

I mean, yes, that's his daughter but that's possibly not the reason for the device (although a nice tangential outcome); she was a pretty big mouthpiece for the Russian government in her own right. I'd say, given the information available at the moment, that he was the target but outside chance it wasn't. 

@DasBoot no I don't think it is an exaggeration. They seem pretty tight and his political outlook looks, to me, like it's been pretty influential. This from the BBC: 



> While Alexander Dugin is not a state official himself, he is nevertheless a symbolic figure in Russian politics.
> His anti-Western, ultranationalist philosophy has become the dominant political ideology in Russia and has helped shape President Putin's expansionist foreign policy, most prominently on Ukraine.
> Attention will now turn to who was behind this attack. Denis Pushilin, the "head" of the self-declared pro-Russian "Donetsk People's Republic", has already laid the blame on Ukraine, writing on Telegram "Vile villains! The terrorists of the Ukrainian regime, trying to eliminate Alexander Dugin, blew up his daughter… In a car. We cherish the memory of Daria, she is a real Russian girl!"
> Incidents like this will make officials in Moscow nervous, especially in the aftermath of a series of explosions and attacks in occupied Crimea and in Russian regions near the border with Ukraine.
> ...



Darya Dugina: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow blast


----------



## Gordus (Aug 21, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> The man who provided the road map to war for Putin has his daughter assassinated… in a very “ALLAHUAK(throat clearing noise)BAR” manner…
> 
> He is likely close with Putin and this could well strike a personal blow to the Kremlin and lead to a very negative escalation.
> 
> ...



In with the trash take, before Marauder replies:

Putin probably read his book 'Foundations of Geopolitics' 24 years ago and gave it a 10/10 "Sh*t, why didn't I think of this ?" review. He fell madly in love with Dugins ideas ( use disinformation and destabilization against Western nations, but also diplomacy (tfoh lol), as well as occupation of neighbouring countries etc. ) and began to plot in accordance with Dugins road map to becoming a super power. Dugin on the other hand absolutely approves, but secretly considers Putin big succ ( not really, he is actualy pretty vocal about his dissapointments with him ) for being way too lenient and slow than what is required to make Russia great again. He regards Putin as "2 out 5 stars, OKAY tool, needs to be more aggressive". That about summs up their whole relationship imo.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 21, 2022)

I read Dugin’s Fourth Political Theory some years ago. Unashamedly very anti-West, pro-Eurasianism—which he’s dusted off from 1917 and repackaged.

The  theory is basically a mix of communism, fascism and socialism. Very anti-Woke, incidentally. Anti-LGBT, anti-anybody who wants special treatment or who feels entitled. Claims not to be racist, but it’s there between the lines. It’s all about world hegemony centered on Eurasia, by which he means Russia, China, India etc but mostly Russia.

I never read any of his other shit. This one was enough to get the gist.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 21, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> The man who provided the road map to war for Putin has his daughter assassinated… in a very “ALLAHUAK(throat clearing noise)BAR” manner…
> 
> He is likely close with Putin and this could well strike a personal blow to the Kremlin and lead to a very negative escalation.
> 
> ...


Thanks for the compliment brother.  I'm aware of the situation but to be honest Dugin wasn't on my radar before his went all "high-order detonation."  I'll be following your analysis on this one.

It definitely seems like the obvious culprit is the Ukrainians.  But there is sooooo much intrigue in Russia that it could have been another oligarch crime family, or even Putin himself.  Heck it's even possible that the daughter herself was the actual target. I don't know.

What would interest me the most is if this turns out to be the Ukrainians.  And I mean like "really" the Ukrainians, I think we all know Putin is going to blame them no matter who actually ordered it.  While it makes sense to me that the Ukrainians would want to take the fight to the Russians on their own soil, there is a risk of escalation or making someone a martyr, which might happen here (they killed an "innocent" woman, after all).

I've read several reports that the Russians have been trying to murder Zelenskyy for a while now.  I wonder if this event widens that contract to his extended family (if it wasn't there already).


----------



## Gunz (Aug 21, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Thanks for the compliment brother.  I'm aware of the situation but to be honest Dugin wasn't on my radar before his went all "high-order detonation."  I'll be following your analysis on this one.
> 
> It definitely seems like the obvious culprit is the Ukrainians.  But there is sooooo much intrigue in Russia that it could have been another oligarch crime family, or even Putin himself.  Heck it's even possible that the daughter herself was the actual target. I don't know.
> 
> ...



This comes a few months after Zelensky purged the leadership of the SBU so I’m wondering if the security service or directorate of foreign intelligence was involved. Both answer directly to the president. Hard to know who was the intended target…but even Mossad Kidon teams occasionally kill the wrong guy and they’ve got a pretty good track record.

If I had to guess, I’d say if it quacks like a duck it’s a duck and Dugin Sr was the target and the Ukrainians did it and oops killed the daughter instead.

It’ll be interesting to see what form the revenge takes, because a reckoning surely is coming.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 21, 2022)

The Russians have been genociding Ukrainian civvies in mass, if they haven't fled, in their conquered areas. What more are they gonna do? 

I'm gonna laugh if this hit was done and botched, by a splinter faction of Russians trying to get outta Putins thumb.


----------



## pardus (Aug 21, 2022)

There are plenty of Russians who are against Russia's war in Ukraine, I was working with a couple of them.  
I cant find the photo right now but Dugina jr 'the fried' recently went on a sightseeing tour of the Azotal steel works in Mariupol where she was taking celebratory selfies. Fuck her.

Taken immediately after the explosion. Dugina is supposedly the guy at the start of the footage

FYI...


----------



## pardus (Aug 21, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> The Russians have been genociding Ukrainian civvies in mass, if they haven't fled, in their conquered areas. What more are they gonna do?
> 
> I'm gonna laugh if this hit was done and botched, by a splinter faction of Russians trying to get outta Putins thumb.



They certainly could escalate, there are a lot of targets out there that my Military friends and I were scratching our heads wondering why the Russians hadn't been attacking them. That said, the commies have supposedly used 60+% of their guided munitions so factor that into the equation. 
Putin has fired many senior military and FSB staff, he's made some serious enemies, so anything is possible. I hope it is Russian internal strife, but Id be very happy to hear that this was a Ukrainian SOF mission, they certainly are running some.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 21, 2022)

@pardus  Thank you for the info!

I've heard that Russia has been using a boatload of their guided stuff and that the failure rate on those systems has been less than good. Seen pictures of their dud missiles having civvie parts /control / electronic boards that are straight out of Alibaba. Given the failure rate of their tech, I wonder how that last 40% is gonna help them or of they can even trust it. 

Honestly, I've got no idea about UKR SOF ops in that section of the world. All I know is that the Russian economy is about to go through some major upheavals and that they're supposedly burning through their foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate. Which is why I'm thinking domestic.


----------



## pardus (Aug 21, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> @pardus  Thank you for the info!
> 
> I've heard that Russia has been using a boatload of their guided stuff and that the failure rate on those systems has been less than good. Seen pictures of their dud missiles having civvie parts /control / electronic boards that are straight out of Alibaba. Given the failure rate of their tech, I wonder how that last 40% is gonna help them or of they can even trust it.
> 
> Honestly, I've got no idea about UKR SOF ops in that section of the world. All I know is that the Russian economy is about to go through some major upheavals and that they're supposedly burning through their foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate. Which is why I'm thinking domestic.


The Ukrainians are shooting down more missiles than are getting through to their targets. A lot of their chips are commercially purchased, including some from washing machines etc... but not for their high end equipment, a large percentage of those chips are US manufactured too, though they are not sold directly and this is being addressed by the US govt. 
A friend of mine was doing a recce and was being harassed by artillery fire during this, they calculated that the Russians spent approx $200,000 to harass them and therefore considered it a win


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 21, 2022)

Dennis Rodman came to West Point to talk about North Korea a few years back.  It was one of the best-attended optional events I can recall during my time at West Point.  Everyone expected something... weird.  I don't remember it that way.  I remember Rodman being thoughtful and articulate and respectful.  The video is probably on the Internet somewhere.

So this isn't as weird as it sounds:

Dennis Rodman says he's planning Russia trip to seek Brittney Griner's release


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 21, 2022)

There's enough Gangsters with means in Russia to take out that chick and her dad that you could easily put it in Russian territory. Ukrainian SBU or SOF getting that deep into Russia would require a lot of work that is kinda worthless and a waste of resources.


----------



## pardus (Aug 21, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Dennis Rodman came to West Point to talk about North Korea a few years back.  It was one of the best-attended optional events I can recall during my time at West Point.  Everyone expected something... weird.  I don't remember it that way.  I remember Rodman being thoughtful and articulate and respectful.  The video is probably on the Internet somewhere.
> 
> So this isn't as weird as it sounds:
> 
> Dennis Rodman says he's planning Russia trip to seek Brittney Griner's release


That is a talk I would've happily attended. Intel is intel, regardless of the source.
I wonder if Steven Segal has chimed in on the Griner case... I hope she suffers, though like our beloved Berghdhal she has her admirers, and she'll get her book deal $$$


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 21, 2022)

The death of Daria Dugina opens a new chapter in fraught history of political assassinations in Russia.


----------



## AWP (Aug 21, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> @pardus  Thank you for the info!
> 
> I've heard that Russia has been using a boatload of their guided stuff and that the failure rate on those systems has been less than good. Seen pictures of their dud missiles having civvie parts /control / electronic boards that are straight out of Alibaba. Given the failure rate of their tech, I wonder how that last 40% is gonna help them or of they can even trust it.
> 
> Honestly, I've got no idea about UKR SOF ops in that section of the world. All I know is that the Russian economy is about to go through some major upheavals and that they're supposedly burning through their foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate. Which is why I'm thinking domestic.



They also burned through a lot of their stock in Syria.

The crazy thing about their war in Syria was they went with guided munitions at first until they started running out of those and then went...pre-WWII with their munitions. Barrel bombs and shit rolled out of the backs of helicopters. Their modern "dumb" bombs are also less accurate than their Western counterparts.

I sat on scope one day and watched a stream of TU-22's fly through our air stack over Mosul (fuckers, that was a nightmare) and then ripple off one cruise missile after another before yoinking a 180 to return to the Motherland. They did this several times a week and when that wasn't happening they launched cruise missiles out of the Caspian Sea.

Maybe their stuff was shit to begin with or maybe they used so much they are now cobbling together "guided" munitions? No telling with the Soviets.


----------



## AWP (Aug 21, 2022)

pardus said:


> I hope she suffers, though like our beloved Berghdhal she has her admirers, and she'll get her book deal $$$



As long as we trade the right type and quantity of killers for her, that's a win-win for all parties.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 21, 2022)

pardus said:


> The Ukrainians are shooting down more missiles than are getting through to their targets. A lot of their chips are commercially purchased, including some from washing machines etc... but not for their high end equipment, a large percentage of those chips are US manufactured too, though they are not sold directly and this is being addressed by the US govt.
> A friend of mine was doing a recce and was being harassed by artillery fire during this, they calculated that the Russians spent approx $200,000 to harass them and therefore considered it a win





AWP said:


> They also burned through a lot of their stock in Syria.
> 
> The crazy thing about their war in Syria was they went with guided munitions at first until they started running out of those and then went...pre-WWII with their munitions. Barrel bombs and shit rolled out of the backs of helicopters. Their modern "dumb" bombs are also less accurate than their Western counterparts.
> 
> ...


Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.

I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 22, 2022)

The thing with Rodman is that there was an emotional connection from KJU to him because of KJUs age and his love of basketball so he was welcomed there with open arms. Rodman doesn't have that in Russia so I wonder what kind of access or impact he can have.


----------



## Locksteady (Aug 22, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.
> 
> I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.


Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.

Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.

If anything, *Ukraine* is fucked.


----------



## AWP (Aug 22, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.
> 
> I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.



If you look at Syria and now the Ukraine, you can see some similarities. An initial blitz with PGM's including the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets that slows to a trickle as the PGM inventory is depleted. Why? Could be a number of factors: corruption as you stated, decreased defense spending where munitions are concerned, loss of a skilled workforce in the aftermath of the 90's and early 2000's, Russia only budgeted for x number of munitions in the conflict...who knows.

I don't think their military is in good shape. It has the weight of numbers, but even those are suspect given the apparent quality of soldiers they are sending to the Ukraine. Putin wouldn't sandbag either, especially now that his 48 hour war is going on 3-4 months? His legacy and prestige are on the line, but they are hanging on to some massive stockpile of PGM's to defend their country? Maybe. It's kind of bizarre.


----------



## Gordus (Aug 22, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> ... If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.



Who though, China ? Fas as I can see, that's the only neighbouring country, that could possibly have a chance. Unless the Finns resurrect Häyhä. That could level the playing field.


----------



## RackMaster (Aug 22, 2022)

Explosions like this are so common now, I'd say this has a lot to do with lack of modern munitions from the Russians.

Explosions rock Donbas as Russian ammo dump goes up in flames


----------



## pardus (Aug 22, 2022)

FSB names Ukrainian Natalia Vovk as the perpetrator of the murder of journalist Dugina


----------



## pardus (Aug 22, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.
> 
> If anything, *Ukraine* is fucked.


You are quite wrong, Ukraine is not fucked, Russia cannot take Ukraine. If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order. Yes Russia is massively powerful, yes Russia can, will and is making Ukraine suffer through loss of blood, equipment, infrastructure and money, but the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again. 
Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.


----------



## AWP (Aug 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> You are quite wrong, Ukraine is not fucked, Russia cannot take Ukraine. If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order. Yes Russia is massively powerful, yes Russia can, will and is making Ukraine suffer through loss of blood, equipment, infrastructure and money, but the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again.
> Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.



The “tyranny of distance” and trash logistics would see the Soviets fail with even a moderate defense in the Ukraine.

I still think you’re (foreigners in general) wrong for being there, but y’all are kicking ass and I respect the hell out of that.


----------



## pardus (Aug 22, 2022)

Waterborne air defense…


----------



## pardus (Aug 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> The “tyranny of distance” and trash logistics would see the Soviets fail with even a moderate defense in the Ukraine.
> 
> I still think you’re (foreigners in general) wrong for being there, but y’all are kicking ass and I respect the hell out of that.


Why do you think it’s wrong?


----------



## Locksteady (Aug 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order.


Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living.


pardus said:


> the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again.
> Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.


I think this is a popular sentiment that is reflected in how badly Putin underestimated the resistance he'd face - and in my assessment his underestimation was understandable given his hubris along with how handily he took Crimea and Georgia before that.  However, Russian 'doctrine' hasn't kept Putin from making critical changes to his strategy after those setbacks, and his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> FSB names Ukrainian Natalia Vovk as the perpetrator of the murder of journalist Dugina



Interesting. Here's the Tass article. Initially I'm skeptical. But who knows. If true, and if Dugin's daughter was the target, it makes sense to send a female principle...but I find it hard to believe that she and her daughter would be sent in alone without a surveillance and technical team. There's more to this than meets the eye.

FSB solves Darya Dugina’s murder, masterminded by Ukrainian secret services


----------



## Gunz (Aug 22, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living...
> ... and* his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.*



Not sure I agree with all of that. I think Ukraine could keep up a fairly robust insurgency for many years with the support of NATO and friends without direct superpower intervention. And I think an insurgency with continued outside support could exist amid economic distress caused by Russia. Even if Russia controls many of the supply routes, there is still a very significant length of eastern Ukraine bordered by NATO.

I believe the potential for continued resistance exists, even if existing only as a protracted guerrilla campaign.


----------



## AWP (Aug 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> Why do you think it’s wrong?



I went over this how many ever pages ago. I respect, and encourage, the Ukrainian's fight against the Soviets. The Soviets as we know them are a subservient people with a vile leader and the sooner they recognize they are actual human beings the better. I am less pro-Ukraine and more anti-Soviet. I think pro-Western foreign fighters complicate the issue because of the (my terminology here is weak) the "state department" or political aspect of things. I think the US has more to gain by supplying the fight than it does by supporting US citizens who made an individual choice to participate.

I think the cause is noble but the repercussions are not.

I'm in a weird place in that I respect the hell out of what you and are others are doing while also believing you are wrong to participate. Tactical picture you are right, strategic position you are wrong, but your individual conviction and bravery cannot be denied.


----------



## Blizzard (Aug 22, 2022)

The numbers have always been staggering but if there's even a sliver of accuracy to this 😲:
Russia Has Suffered Up to 80,000 Military Casualties in Ukraine, Pentagon Says

All in just 7 months.


----------



## AWP (Aug 22, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The numbers have always been staggering but if there's even a sliver of accuracy to this 😲:
> Russia Has Suffered Up to 80,000 Military Casualties in Ukraine, Pentagon Says
> 
> All in just 7 months.



4-5 divisions gone? Thanos snapped? The US has something like...20 maneuver divisions both Active and Guard? The Soviets have lost a quarter of our strength in the Ukraine? We have...12 Active duty divisions so the Soviets have lost about 40% of our Active force? Not in Europe, not taking Berlin, not taking Paris, but the Ukraine? Even if you take away the air force and navy casualties you are still looking at...4-ish divisions of soldiers?

WTF?


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 22, 2022)

I don't like that figure or statement for a couple of reasons. What are they defining as wounded? How can something be ballpack and not precise but they still have confidence?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 22, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.
> 
> If anything, *Ukraine* is fucked.




Lol wtf I just read. You ok?


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 22, 2022)

Come on mate.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 22, 2022)

His post following that was even more outlandish.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 22, 2022)

That's fine other opinions are a good thing. Take it apart if you disagree.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> 4-5 divisions gone? Thanos snapped? The US has something like...20 maneuver divisions both Active and Guard? The Soviets have lost a quarter of our strength in the Ukraine? We have...12 Active duty divisions so the Soviets have lost about 40% of our Active force? Not in Europe, not taking Berlin, not taking Paris, but the Ukraine? Even if you take away the air force and navy casualties you are still looking at...4-ish divisions of soldiers?
> 
> WTF?



Given the men and material losses of the soviets. They are unlikely to step over the border again for anything for awhile. They've had major issues with recruitment. Were hauling veterans in and offering 4k/month to re-enlist and report to the front from places like Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar. (And no one was taking the offer to volunteer, 4k US in places like Krasnoyarsk is a LOT of effing cash) Units in Far East military district have been rotated forward. Generally Russian Army units are racially homogenous based on region. So you have Asian Russians effectively on the front lines of a European Russian conflict.

Enlistment age, conscription laws, retirement age have all been changed. They are pretty much unable to recruit anyone. Then think about how many Chechnya Rosgovardiya units and Russian Rosgovardiya units have also been deployed to Ukraine. 

The idea that Ukraine is fucked doesn't work with the maths that are going on. Ukraine to rebuild will need to retake its Industrial capacity which has either been destroyed completely or taken.  Ukraine will rebuild it because that land is her future. Russia can't rebuild or hold it as the costs will continue to mount.  Ukraine has tens of thousands of Ukrainian and Foreign volunteers to fight a "noble" cause. The only thing holding them back is the ability to fully organize and arm cohesive units. But they also don't need to put a division in the field tomorrow either. 

But Russia needs to find a few divisions. . .


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Aug 23, 2022)

AWP said:


> If you look at Syria and now the Ukraine, you can see some similarities. An initial blitz with PGM's including the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets that slows to a trickle as the PGM inventory is depleted. Why? Could be a number of factors: corruption as you stated, decreased defense spending where munitions are concerned, loss of a skilled workforce in the aftermath of the 90's and early 2000's, Russia only budgeted for x number of munitions in the conflict...who knows.
> 
> I don't think their military is in good shape. It has the weight of numbers, but even those are suspect given the apparent quality of soldiers they are sending to the Ukraine. Putin wouldn't sandbag either, especially now that his 48 hour war is going on 3-4 months? His legacy and prestige are on the line, but they are hanging on to some massive stockpile of PGM's to defend their country? Maybe. It's kind of bizarre.


Honestly, the collapse of the Russian military has been bizarre. At this point I'm wondering if they still have 40% PGM stocks remaining. Considering Ukraine is supposed to be a sideshow in getting to the real objectives, I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine is where Russia will wither and die.



Gordus said:


> Who though, China ? Fas as I can see, that's the only neighbouring country, that could possibly have a chance. Unless the Finns resurrect Häyhä. That could level the playing field.


I'm thinking Turkey, if Syria can ever be quelled.

China has been gutting Russia on tech and trade for a while. They also don't need an army to invade when they've been slowly moving their population over the border and their companies reap Russian natural resources.


----------



## CQB (Aug 23, 2022)

pardus said:


> FSB names Ukrainian Natalia Vovk as the perpetrator of the murder of journalist Dugina


I'll wait that out for more info, it seems too convenient. The media here mentioned an internal dissident group.


----------



## Locksteady (Aug 23, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Honestly, the collapse of the Russian military has been bizarre. At this point I'm wondering if they still have 40% PGM stocks remaining. Considering Ukraine is supposed to be a sideshow in getting to the real objectives, I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine is where Russia will wither and die.


First of all, excellent 2015 article describing the situation then and fairly well-predicting what to expect.  Have a 'Like'. 

Secondly, assuming we both agree the 'real objectives' are securing the 9 land access points mentioned in the article, Russia doesn't even need all of them to control Ukraine or expand into Moldova, which on a land security basis (one of the primary security concerns for Russia) is the immediate priority before even considering trying to control all the other land access points.

Thirdly, Russia is far from 'withering and dying'.  The sanctions have contributed to the rubles becoming the best-performing currency this year due to Russia's monetary policies and the increased trade it has cultivated with its non-sanctioning trade partners.  Along with this, Russia's debtors are willing to hold out until US/NATO-member sanctions preventing Russia from actually paying them are lifted because they realize the US/NATO-member sanctions are temporary and will be lifted the moment they become too inconvenient for those countries to sustain for their national/multinational interests.

This breaking point may come sooner for Russian oil/natural gas-dependent NATO countries as the frost approaches.


----------



## Gordus (Aug 23, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> I'm thinking Turkey, if Syria can ever be quelled.



Ah okay. Yeah, I can see that.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 23, 2022)

Well, you know if you really want to progress towards peace, show trials and executions in a flattened city is a way: Ukraine war: Cages put up in Mariupol concert hall for 'show trial' of prisoners of war condemned by UN


----------



## pardus (Aug 23, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living.
> 
> I think this is a popular sentiment that is reflected in how badly Putin underestimated the resistance he'd face - and in my assessment his underestimation was understandable given his hubris along with how handily he took Crimea and Georgia before that.  However, Russian 'doctrine' hasn't kept Putin from making critical changes to his strategy after those setbacks, and his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.



At this point you sound like a Russian troll, but whatever floats your boat. Putin and his Soviet hoard failed to take Kyiv, they underestimated the Ukrainian's and others (maybe not surprising after Crimea's annexation), their logistics failed and they were forced to withdrawal. 
Yes the loss of resources is a significant problem, and Ukraine's economy has or will shrink an estimated 20%. Putin isn't doing a very good job and his brilliant new strategy though has he? The vast majority of the Ukrainian resources in Ukrainian control are within a short distance from the front line, why hasn't he just rolled forward and taken them? Because he's weak and incompetent, yes, not only is Putin a major war criminal, he's also a little bitch.
He was never stronger than he was 24 FEB 2022, that was his best chance and the Ukrainians stopped him.  He will not be that strong again, ever. Does that mean he will loose? I don't know, but Ukraine has the will and is getting stronger, and it has some steadfast allies now that will never abandon them, sadly the USA, Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, France cannot be counted among them. 



Gunz said:


> Interesting. Here's the Tass article. Initially I'm skeptical. But who knows. If true, and if Dugin's daughter was the target, it makes sense to send a female principle...but I find it hard to believe that she and her daughter would be sent in alone without a surveillance and technical team. There's more to this than meets the eye.
> 
> FSB solves Darya Dugina’s murder, masterminded by Ukrainian secret services


I don't believe she was the target, and I don't believe a thing the FSB/Russia says. 


AWP said:


> I went over this how many ever pages ago. I respect, and encourage, the Ukrainian's fight against the Soviets. The Soviets as we know them are a subservient people with a vile leader and the sooner they recognize they are actual human beings the better. I am less pro-Ukraine and more anti-Soviet. I think pro-Western foreign fighters complicate the issue because of the (my terminology here is weak) the "state department" or political aspect of things. I think the US has more to gain by supplying the fight than it does by supporting US citizens who made an individual choice to participate.
> 
> I think the cause is noble but the repercussions are not.
> 
> I'm in a weird place in that I respect the hell out of what you and are others are doing while also believing you are wrong to participate. Tactical picture you are right, strategic position you are wrong, but your individual conviction and bravery cannot be denied.


Totally understand, and respect your view.


CQB said:


> I'll wait that out for more info, it seems too convenient. The media here mentioned an internal dissident group.


Yeah it's early days yet, we'll see what happens in the weeks to come, I don't think Puty boy is as secure as he'd like to think he is though.


----------



## AWP (Aug 23, 2022)

No "love" for the above post because the Love emoji is Stupid AF. A Like will have to do.


----------



## Gunz (Aug 23, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The numbers have always been staggering but if there's even a sliver of accuracy to this 😲:
> Russia Has Suffered Up to 80,000 Military Casualties in Ukraine, Pentagon Says
> 
> All in just 7



That sounds a bit exaggerated. And the Ukraine claim of 42,000 Russian KIAs in half a year of fighting sounds like fantasy.


----------



## CQB (Aug 23, 2022)

pardus said:


> At this point you sound like a Russian troll, but whatever floats your boat. Putin and his Soviet hoard failed to take Kyiv, they underestimated the Ukrainian's and others (maybe not surprising after Crimea's annexation), their logistics failed and they were forced to withdrawal.
> Yes the loss of resources is a significant problem, and Ukraine's economy has or will shrink an estimated 20%. Putin isn't doing a very good job and his brilliant new strategy though has he? The vast majority of the Ukrainian resources in Ukrainian control are within a short distance from the front line, why hasn't he just rolled forward and taken them? Because he's weak and incompetent, yes, not only is Putin a major war criminal, he's also a little bitch.
> He was never stronger than he was 24 FEB 2022, that was his best chance and the Ukrainians stopped him.  He will not be that strong again, ever. Does that mean he will loose? I don't know, but Ukraine has the will and is getting stronger, and it has some steadfast allies now that will never abandon them, sadly the USA, Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, France cannot be counted among them.
> View attachment 40376
> ...


Cheers @pardus so given the Russian penchants for disinformation a mum & daughter team who exfil in a mini minor…🤨


----------



## Gunz (Aug 23, 2022)

CQB said:


> Cheers @pardus so given the Russian penchants for disinformation a mum & daughter team who exfil in a mini minor…🤨


----------



## CQB (Aug 23, 2022)

Armed & dangerous…🤣


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 24, 2022)

I’m interested to see more on this. I’m not familiar with how most other countries treat their active duty, so them saying he wasn’t on active duty makes me wonder if he was on a reserve status, or if they just mean he wasn’t there on official business.

Statement on reports of death of New Zealand soldier

Edit: The hot link didn’t populate like I thought it would, so it says that a New Zealand soldier was killed in Ukraine.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 24, 2022)

He was on leave without pay which is what I think they mean. I suspect Defence is like other government jobs for LWOP which means you're not actually technically working for them (ie you hand over all your IDd and uniforms and kit) and they only keep your job open for a certain period (usually 3 months though NZDF might have different details in their contracts).


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 24, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> He was on leave without pay which is what I think they mean. I suspect Defence is like other government jobs for LWOP which means you're not actually technically working for them (ie you hand over all your IDd and uniforms and kit) and they only keep your job open for a certain period (usually 3 months though NZDF might have different details in their contracts).


Thank you for that.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 24, 2022)

I'm not teaching this semester, but I guest-lectured a strategic studies seminar yesterday that happened to be a lesson on international relations, which is what I went to grad school for.

We discussed the theories of realism, liberalism, marxism, constructivism, and feminism.  I also briefly went over my (extremely limited) understanding of Dugin's "Fourth Theory" of IR, because his name came up during the Current Events portion of the class.

I was listening to various Facebook podcasts yesterday when I was working on my Jeep, and someone (Glen Beck? I don't know, the Jeep was being stubborn so I was out there for a long time and listened to a lot of different 'casts) wondered if the Dugin assassination attempt might turn into an Archduke Ferdinand moment.

I'm thinking about writing and article on that.  Any thoughts?


----------



## Polar Bear (Aug 24, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I'm not teaching this semester, but I guest-lectured a strategic studies seminar yesterday that happened to be a lesson on international relations, which is what I went to grad school for.
> 
> We discussed the theories of realism, liberalism, marxism, constructivism, and feminism.  I also briefly went over my (extremely limited) understanding of Dugin's "Fourth Theory" of IR, because his name came up during the Current Events portion of the class.
> 
> ...


No thoughts but I would love to see why you think that.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 24, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> No thoughts but I would love to see why you think that.


About Dugin-as-Ferdinand?

I'm still mulling it over, but the premise is that Archduke Ferdinand was someone that few people knew about, and fewer cared about, but the terrorist attack against him set in motion a series of events that eventually lead to WWI. Basically, it was a premise that motivated many of the world powers of the time to mobilize for, and go to, war.

So, a potential future COA:  Russian (correctly or incorrectly, it doesn't really matter) blames Ukraine for the death of Dugin's daughter, who is already being lionized by the Russian press.  They escalate in a series of provocative ways that causes a NATO country, let's say Poland, to get into it with the Russians, thus triggering Article 5 of the NATO charter and bringing the big dogs head to head.

^that's the basic idea.  Again, not mine originally, but maybe interesting enough for future discussion.


----------



## TLDR20 (Aug 24, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> About Dugin-as-Ferdinand?
> 
> I'm still mulling it over, but the premise is that Archduke Ferdinand was someone that few people knew about, and fewer cared about, but the terrorist attack against him set in motion a series of events that eventually lead to WWI. Basically, it was a premise that motivated many of the world powers of the time to mobilize for, and go to, war.
> 
> ...


If WW3 kicks off it’ll prolly be in late August 23, when I finish anesthesia school and am about to cash my first check. Would be perfect timing….


----------



## Devildoc (Aug 24, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> If WW3 kicks off it’ll prolly be in late August 23, when I finish anesthesia school and am about to cash my first check. Would be perfect timing….



Are you on the hook with Uncle Sam for time?

Buddy of mine (ironically, also former 18D from a long time ago) from nursing school went CRNA in the Navy Reserve, got deployed several times during GWOT.  He had more time deployed in the Navy reserve than he did active duty Army SF (late 80s-mid 90s).


----------



## RackMaster (Aug 24, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> If WW3 kicks off it’ll prolly be in late August 23, when I finish anesthesia school and am about to cash my first check. Would be perfect timing….



I guess I need to expedite, finding property further North and build my compound.


----------



## AWP (Aug 24, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I guess I need to expedite, finding property further North and build my compound.


Dude, Canadians don’t like Canada. What country are you afraid will invade? Maybe have Texas send some illegals up there for you to fight? I’d worry about Detroit maybe, but they can’t burn down your country worse than Fidel Junior the Blackface Expert.

I think you’re safe.


----------



## RackMaster (Aug 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> Dude, Canadians don’t like Canada. What country are you afraid will invade? Maybe have Texas send some illegals up there for you to fight? I’d worry about Detroit maybe, but they can’t burn down your country worse than Fidel Junior the Blackface Expert.
> 
> I think you’re safe.



I'm still in a couple blast zones.


----------



## pardus (Aug 24, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m interested to see more on this. I’m not familiar with how most other countries treat their active duty, so them saying he wasn’t on active duty makes me wonder if he was on a reserve status, or if they just mean he wasn’t there on official business.
> 
> Statement on reports of death of New Zealand soldier
> 
> Edit: The hot link didn’t populate like I thought it would, so it says that a New Zealand soldier was killed in Ukraine.


His name is Dominic, he is a good friend of mine, we served together in Ukraine. Forget that active duty/reserve bullshit, it's all extraneous shit.
Dom died like a true warrior, he was assaulting a trench system and personally took out several bunkers and approx half a dozen enemies, then was killed during a counter attack. His body is unfortunately still in enemy lines and reports vary from being dragged away to not being secured by any side, but he is still behind enemy lines currently.
I was in constant contact with him and had been speaking to him specifically about the circumstances surrounding him being KIA.
He was young, full of energy and optimistic, I think he thought I was a little jaded and cynical unfortunately, because my advice to him on the day he died would have probably kept him alive.
To the day I die, I will seek vengeance on the filthy Russian scum that killed my mate and the countless innocent Ukrainians that we both sought to protect, as well as to protect democracy and western civilization, It is now VERY personal for me, and I was already invested in the cause.

Dom was killed alongside an American comrade who I currently don't know anything about.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 24, 2022)

I'm sorry to hear that Pardus.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 24, 2022)

pardus said:


> His name is Dominic, he is a good friend of mine, we served together in Ukraine. Forget that active duty/reserve bullshit, it's all extraneous shit.
> Dom died like a true warrior, he was assaulting a trench system and personally took out several bunkers and approx half a dozen enemies, then was killed during a counter attack. His body is unfortunately still in enemy lines and reports vary from being dragged away to not being secured by any side, but he is still behind enemy lines currently.
> I was in constant contact with him and had been speaking to him specifically about the circumstances surrounding him being KIA.
> He was young, full of energy and optimistic, I think he thought I was a little jaded and cynical unfortunately, because my advice to him on the day he died would have probably kept him alive.
> ...


I’m sorry to hear that you lost a friend.

My curiosity about the active/reserve was simply what type of response (or non-response) we could expect from the government of NZ.


----------



## pardus (Aug 24, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I'm sorry to hear that Pardus.


Thanks mate. He was from Blenheim, if we get his body back and have a funeral back home, i'll try and get back for it. 


JedisonsDad said:


> I’m sorry to hear that you lost a friend.
> 
> My curiosity about the active/reserve was simply what type of response (or non-response) we could expect from the government of NZ.


Thank you. There is nothing nefarious/clandestine behind it, just a bureaucratic situation awkwardly presented by both the govt and media.


----------



## SpitfireV (Aug 24, 2022)

They've changed the wording today I noticed so they must have been getting a few questions. It was pretty clunky.


----------



## Marauder06 (Aug 25, 2022)

pardus said:


> Thanks mate. He was from Blenheim, if we get his body back and have a funeral back home, i'll try and get back for it.
> 
> Thank you. There is nothing nefarious/clandestine behind it, just a bureaucratic situation awkwardly presented by both the govt and media.


Sending you a PM


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 25, 2022)

Condolences to you Pardus. 

________

Money is leaving Russia. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562769305347170304


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 26, 2022)

Exclusive: U.S. confirms American volunteer killed fighting in Ukraine


----------



## ThunderHorse (Aug 28, 2022)

So things are getting interesting. Russia looks to be preparing to renew their offensive with "volunteer" battalions under the newly formed 3rd Army Corps. Entire formation consists of volunteers at the Battalion level it seems. Obviously mixed with newly promoted officers to higher echelon. But they will have limited training when they hit the front. Also, Russian Army is pulling even more units from Far East Military District.

Institute for the Study of War


----------



## AWP (Aug 28, 2022)

The last time the Soviets pulled troops from the Far East it was to stave off defeat at the hand of a certain Western European country...

If I'm in the FEMD and hear about a war breaking out on the other side of the country you can bet I want that shit to end quickly. Otherwise...history tells us I'm about to be cannon fodder until the country can recover.


----------



## Gordus (Aug 29, 2022)

pardus said:


> His name is Dominic, he is a good friend of mine, we served together in Ukraine. Forget that active duty/reserve bullshit, it's all extraneous shit.
> Dom died like a true warrior, he was assaulting a trench system and personally took out several bunkers and approx half a dozen enemies, then was killed during a counter attack. His body is unfortunately still in enemy lines and reports vary from being dragged away to not being secured by any side, but he is still behind enemy lines currently.
> I was in constant contact with him and had been speaking to him specifically about the circumstances surrounding him being KIA.
> He was young, full of energy and optimistic, I think he thought I was a little jaded and cynical unfortunately, because my advice to him on the day he died would have probably kept him alive.
> ...



Rest In Peace Dominic.

My condolences Pardus. Thank you for sharing and telling his story. 

I can only feel deep admiration and respect for the people, who risk their lives to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. 

May all of them to return safely.


----------



## Blizzard (Aug 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> The last time the Soviets pulled troops from the Far East it was to stave off defeat at the hand of a certain Western European country...
> 
> If I'm in the FEMD and hear about a war breaking out on the other side of the country you can bet I want that shit to end quickly. Otherwise...history tells us I'm about to be cannon fodder until the country can recover.


This just in time for Fall and heading into Winter because the Soviets have shown this to be the time when their supply lines are most capable.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Aug 29, 2022)

Turkish drone manufacturer Bayraktar has cut off shipments of its drones to Russia.

Reportedly, Russia is now being supplied drones from Iran. No confirmation which models, but it’s suspected the Shahed 129 (Reaper clone) and Shahed 191 (RQ-170 clone).

Ukraine's "Bayraktar" compared to Russia's new Iran-supplied drones

Not a good sign that Russia and Iran are further colluding.


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 1, 2022)

Well this isn't conspicuous. 

Head of Russian oil giant dies after reportedly falling from a hospital window in Moscow


----------



## Kraut783 (Sep 1, 2022)

*"The company issued a statement early Thursday confirming the death of Maganov, 67, "after a severe illness,"*

Yeah, the severe illness of Deceleration Trauma.


----------



## AWP (Sep 1, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Well this isn't conspicuous.
> 
> Head of Russian oil giant dies after reportedly falling from a hospital window in Moscow



Isn’t that a go-to method of problem solving in Russia?


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Sep 2, 2022)

Apparently one of Russia's largest gas fields is burning.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565515657592320000
If y'all thought energy prices and food prices we're rough, wait a few more months.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 2, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Apparently one of Russia's largest gas fields is burning.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565515657592320000
> If y'all thought energy prices and food prices we're rough, wait a few more months.


They have that crazy Mig powered firefighting tank for this exact purpose.


----------



## AWP (Sep 2, 2022)

Some video of Ukrainian Air Force rocking AGM-88's and the guns.


----------



## Gunz (Sep 2, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Well this isn't conspicuous.
> 
> Head of Russian oil giant dies after reportedly falling from a hospital window in Moscow





AWP said:


> Isn’t that a go-to method of problem solving in Russia?



Giving that problem a nudge out a window is cheaper than A-234…and the only trace it leaves is blood on the sidewalk.


----------



## Gunz (Sep 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> Some video of Ukrainian Air Force rocking AGM-88's and the guns.



Weeeeeeeee!!!!


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 2, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Well this isn't conspicuous.
> 
> Head of Russian oil giant dies after reportedly falling from a hospital window in Moscow


Defenestration. That's a fun word to say.  

Probably not so fun if you are on the receiving end.


----------



## AWP (Sep 2, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Defenestration. That's a fun word to say.
> 
> Probably not so fun if you are on the receiving end.



I don't think sidewalks have feelings.

You've been a great crowd! Thank you all for coming out!


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> I don't think sidewalks have feelings.
> 
> You've been a great crowd! Thank you all for coming out!* dropping in!*


----------



## Gunz (Sep 2, 2022)

Just kind of a fun defenestration scene. 🙂


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


>


“I shall offer a truce and buy him off but whom do I send?” “Not Me why if I was to fall under the sword it might be my head in a basket” “Not my gentle son,The mere sight of him would only encourage an Enemy to take over the whole country”


----------



## Gunz (Sep 2, 2022)

Just remembering Jaime Lannister defenestrating Bran out the tower window: “The things I do for love.”


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Sep 2, 2022)

Let's all agree, there are worse places to fall out of a window then A Hospital though!!!!!


----------



## Gunz (Sep 2, 2022)

SpongeBob*24 said:


> Let's all agree, there are worse places to fall out of a window then A Hospital though!!!!!



I’ve been in hospitals. I’ve never been in one that has windows you can open.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Sep 2, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> They have that crazy Mig powered firefighting tank for this exact purpose.
> 
> View attachment 40460


Yeah, but they no longer have the technical expertise or manufacturing support to bring that pipeline back to it's previous status.

The talent, technical knowhow, and manufacturing support, went away when western companies pulled outta Russia earlier in the year. I doubt it's going back to normal.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 2, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Yeah, but they no longer have the technical expertise or manufacturing support to bring that pipeline back to it's previous status.
> 
> The talent, technical knowhow, and manufacturing support, went away when western companies pulled outta Russia earlier in the year. I doubt it's going back to normal.


And according to my First Alert, Gazprom has indefinitely suspended Nord Stream 1 operations due to equipment issues at a compressor station.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Sep 2, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> And according to my First Alert, Gazprom has indefinitely suspended Nord Stream 1 operations due to equipment issues at a compressor station.


Yep. 

Russian nat gas is going away for a while. As are a bunch of ag and chemical inputs.


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 2, 2022)

Gunz said:


> I’ve been in hospitals. I’ve never been in one that has windows you can open.


Let alone one you can just fall out of.


----------



## AWP (Sep 2, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Let alone one you can just fall out of.



In Soviet Russia hospital jumps away from you.


----------



## pardus (Sep 6, 2022)

I've been a little distracted of late. The Kherson offensive is well under way, though it is proceeding excruciatingly slowly, unless something changes drastically I have almost zero confidence of an advance into Crimea (Ukraine's forecast of operations), and am dubious if they will even reach the Dnipro before the rains hit, which i'm certain will be an end to offensive operations. A new offensive has started in the north eastern AO, let's hope that is a little more succesful, though it's strategic importance is a lot less than the southern AO presently.


----------



## pardus (Sep 6, 2022)

No link Unfortunately due to where I sourced this intel. It is however well reported that Russia is buying vast quantities of Arty, shells and rockets from NK. 

“Russia Is Taking A Big Risk Purchasing Rockets And Artillery Shells From North Korea

By Jack Buckby
North Korea Ballistic Missile Test North Korea Ballistic Missile Test. Image Credit: North Korean State Media.
Ever since North Korea became the third country to recognize the independence of two Russia-backed separatist states within Ukraine, speculation has been rife about how the isolationist communist state may deepen its ties to Russia. Following catastrophic flooding, a worse-than-usual food shortage, and an economic crisis triggered by the country’s decision to close its borders completely during the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea may have finally found a new source of incoming – weapons sales from Russia.

North Korea to Russia’s Rescue? 

According to a senior U.S. defense official, Russia is currently in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea as its troops face weapons and ammunition shortages in Ukraine. It’s a sign that the West’s sanctions on Russia are working, making it hard – if not impossible – for Russia to manufacture advanced weapons and ammunition.

According to a U.S. official, Russia is actively seeking support from North Korea due to Western sanctions, and that support is already being given. However, few details were offered from the declassified intelligence about the exact kinds of ammunition that North Korea will provide.


“The United States provided few details from the declassified intelligence about the exact weaponry, timing or size of the shipment, and there is no way yet to independently verify the sale,” the New York Times reported on Tuesday.”

“A U.S. official said that, beyond short-range rockets and artillery shells, Russia was expected to try to purchase additional North Korean equipment going forward.”


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 7, 2022)

Just a reminder that we're about 7 months into Putin's 2 week special military operation.  The Soviets report everything is still on schedule.

Interesting questions arise about the Soviets purchasing ammo from DPK...

We've seen some of the garbage the Soviets have brought to be the battlefield.  Do they really think DPK supplies are in any better condition?  

Are the Soviets truly that desperate?  

What about China?  They've reportedly been playing together, but not so friendly that China will provide ammo? 

Still wondering where the rest of the mighty Soviet Air Force is.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 7, 2022)

Why do you think the quality will be poor?


----------



## Intel Nerd (Sep 7, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Just a reminder that we're about 7 months into Putin's 2 week special military operation.  The Soviets report everything is still on schedule.
> 
> Interesting questions arise about the Soviets purchasing ammo from DPK...
> 
> ...



I think the quality of having ammo outweighs the quality concerns of having nothing.


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 7, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Why do you think the quality will be poor?


See the following analysis as an example:
The State of the North Korean Military - Korea Net Assessment 2020: Politicized Security and Unchanging Strategic Realities

There's other similar analysis out there but they all have a similar theme:
50's - 70's era Soviet and Chinese conventional weapons and systems.

From the report above:
"North Korea still uses many aging weapons systems, though it has unveiled some new ones at military parades in recent years. Many of the KPA Ground Force’s armaments—such as battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, and artillery systems—were secured between the late 1950s and the 1980s, so most of them have aged considerably...."

"In terms of its conventional munitions, the KPA also beats the ROK Armed Forces in quantity but not quality..."

"In terms of performance, the KPA artillery cannot compete with the ROK military’s more advanced models.27 Most of the KPA’s artillery systems were acquired before 1990, whereas the large majority of the ROK military’s artillery systems were procured after 2000..."

"In past cases, like the December 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, the accuracy and firepower of North Korean artillery was limited. The 2010 KPA’s shelling of the island, located along the western coast of the Korean Peninsula, made it possible to evaluate some of the combat power of the KPA’s artillery. At that time, the KPA shot more than 170 shells using 122-millimeter MRLs, half of which fell into the sea; what is more, 25 percent of the eighty rounds that landed on the island failed to detonate..."


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 7, 2022)

Eh it'll kill you all the same. As long as the fuzes work. They've got quite an export market so I don't think they'll be utter shit otherwise noone would buy them.


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Ukraine launches surprise counterattack in Kharkiv region


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

KHERSON/ 1245 UTC 8 SEP/  The destruction of two  RU S-400 air defense complexes has expanded Ukrainian close air support (CAS) sorties to support ground operations in the Kherson AO.  The RU 49th Combined Arms Army is under increasing logistical stress.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567852816290512897


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Blinken in Kyiv, announces $2B in US Military Aid


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Has Russia shot itself in the foot, again? This will be a long thread covering the probable Russian closing of gas to Europe and limited ability of Russia to reroute this to China with their current gas infrastructure.


----------



## Gunz (Sep 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> “…The RU 49th Combined Arms Army is under increasing logistical stress.”



I don’t doubt that for a minute.


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

A Ukrainian mechanized unit storms a Russian position


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> A Ukrainian mechanized unit storms a Russian position


Either I’m fluent in Ukrainian, or that gentleman is clearly asking for more .50 cal ammo in English.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Either I’m fluent in Ukrainian, or that gentleman is clearly asking for more .50 cal ammo in English.


If the English is barely-discernible as such and is liberally peppered with the word “cunt,” it’s probably Pardus.


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> If the English is barely-discernible as such and is liberally peppered with the word “cunt,” it’s probably Pardus.


I'm not saying that I don't "hate" you anymore, but you are OK sometimes.


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> If the English is barely-discernible as such and is liberally peppered with the word “cunt,” it’s probably Pardus.


Am I correct in remembering that yourself and your lovely wife had to use "Watermelon" once or twice at Dawn's place when we were working on the range upstate with your cool kids?
I did try.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> Am I correct in remembering that yourself and your lovely wife had to use "Watermelon" once or twice at Dawn's place when we were working on the range upstate with your cool kids?
> I did try.


You were great.  My oldest is 18 now and she still remembers you.  And how cool it was that @Ex3 let us use her place.  Such a great experience all around.

I was just glad I had someone to blame in later years when my wife asked my kids “ who taught you that word?”  ;)?


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> You were great.  My oldest is 18 now and she still remembers you.  And how cool it was that @Ex3 let us use her place.  Such a great experience all around.
> 
> I was just glad I had someone to blame in later years when my wife asked my kids “ who taught you that word?”  ;)?


My legacy shall liveth for evermore


----------



## pardus (Sep 8, 2022)

FUCK YEAH!


“the most senior Russian officer captured since WW II.”


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 9, 2022)

I hope that can be confirmed will be a big W if it is.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 9, 2022)

Doesn’t look like the same guy to me.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Doesn’t look like the same guy to me.


Ears are similar, but his cheek mole looks too low and wide in his captured photo.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Doesn’t look like the same guy to me.


I see some similarity, especially the chin & mouth area.  Nose is busted up but it doesn't look the same.


----------



## pardus (Sep 9, 2022)

Kharkiv region fighting in the last three days


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 9, 2022)

pardus said:


> Kharkiv region fighting in the last three days


Looks to be some very heavy fighting:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567543637742870530


----------



## pardus (Sep 9, 2022)

pardus said:


> FUCK YEAH!
> 
> 
> “the most senior Russian officer captured since WW II.”



If I’m not mistaken that is LTC rank, not LTG. 
Time will tell.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 9, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568309381078618112


----------



## pardus (Sep 9, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568312857757978624


----------



## pardus (Sep 10, 2022)

Five Russian officials arrested for proposing to remove Putin from power, charge him with treason


----------



## AWP (Sep 10, 2022)

The war is in its 6th month or something and it was supposed to last...a few days, a week tops? I haven't seen a timeline this broken since "two weeks to flatten the curve."


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 10, 2022)

Or "in and out one quick case study, Morty." 

Pardus, thanks for that oil pipeline map earlier. I assumed that with China needing fuel it would be a natural customer but I never bothered to see if they could actually get it there. They can by the looks just not in bulk.


----------



## pardus (Sep 10, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Or "in and out one quick case study, Morty."
> 
> Pardus, thanks for that oil pipeline map earlier. I assumed that with China needing fuel it would be a natural customer but I never bothered to see if they could actually get it there. They can by the looks just not in bulk.


Yeah, the bottom line is that they are not friends, never really have been, they are simply using each other at the moment for their own gain, which increasingly looks like it is to China's advantage.


----------



## pardus (Sep 10, 2022)

#Russia has removed 2 radar decoy barges ('cope barges') deployed to protect Kerch Bridge.


----------



## pardus (Sep 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568444389793447936

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568443138116620289


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568755355592626176


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 11, 2022)

The ISW map shows that you've advanced and taken the ground LOCs that fed to Izyum.


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568960358127226882


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568961943691751426


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568962300165476352


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568967201163563008


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russians-run-directly-through-ukrainian-fields-of-fire/?ref=app

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569059017468645376


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568690075948679168


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 11, 2022)

I’m curious how this compares to other wars, in regards to video documentation. I know there are tons of Afghanistan videos out there, but that had a 20 years run. This seems saturated with videos.


----------



## AWP (Sep 11, 2022)

Not every day you have a job (Soviet tanker) that’s more dangerous than Al-Qaeda’s #2.


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

AWP said:


> Not every day you have a job (Soviet tanker) that’s more dangerous than Al-Qaeda’s #2.


You gotta give him credit, he had more airtime than Nickleback.


----------



## pardus (Sep 11, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569140797521678338


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 11, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568690075948679168


I qualified on a tank once...that's about the extent of my time on tanks. But holy fuck he shoots and just sits. Like, maybe a simple fucking berm drill, yeah?


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 11, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m curious how this compares to other wars, in regards to video documentation. I know there are tons of Afghanistan videos out there, but that had a 20 years run. This seems saturated with videos.



There was definitely the opportunity to release a lot more footage especially from UAVs and whatnot of people getting done but that would have just been propaganda fodder for the Taliban/AQ/ISIS and been an own goal. Which is pretty much why IMO Ukraine is releasing all this footage- it's good for the war effort and the UAVs are mostly commercial off the shelf so no harm in releasing nearly raw footage so much quicker turnarounds. 

On the ground I think cameras are much cheaper and storage cheap now too.


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569175084702769152


----------



## AWP (Sep 12, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569175084702769152



Are the Soviets falling back in good order or has it become more of a rout?

---

History nerd time: the most recent offensive is the 6th around Kharkiv in the last 103 years.
Battle of Kharkiv - Wikipedia


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569338519302148101


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569361307949846530


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

AWP said:


> Are the Soviets falling back in good order or has it become more of a rout?
> 
> ---
> 
> ...


It’s a rout, however it should be noted that it is localized, as the following attachment will show…
The front line is something like 1,300km long, no side has the strength to control all of that. 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569381004258811904


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

Interesting.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569334222242070536


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

Things that make you go hmm…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569260715420024835


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569125675642286082


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

If the Ukrainians can move south and take Mariupol, thereby cutting off the Russians in the south west (apart from the Kerch bridge in Crimea), they’ll bloody near win the war.  
Fingers crossed, but not holding my breath.


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

Quite remarkable progress 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569399120334360577


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

Inside Russia’s borders, good. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569427642482302977


----------



## pardus (Sep 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569436480334090241


----------



## pardus (Sep 13, 2022)

Fingers crossed 🤞 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569776560630005760


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> Inside Russia’s borders, good.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569427642482302977



I was wondering why you would keep a limited strategic asset so close to the front line. Then I looked at my list of "why would you..." from this war and it's a very long way from being answered.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 13, 2022)

I was reading these guys were the spear point to any attack on NATO. Not anymore it seems 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569683217766031360


----------



## Kraut783 (Sep 13, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I was wondering why you would keep a limited strategic asset so close to the front line. Then I looked at my list of "why would you..." from this war and it's a very long way from being answered.



Arrogance...


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 13, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> I was reading these guys were the spear point to any attack on NATO. Not anymore it seems
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569683217766031360


Damn.


----------



## amlove21 (Sep 13, 2022)

The utter paper-tigerness of Russia during this conflict is exquisite. THESE are the dudes we were supposed to be all hand-wringy about?! 

We need to keep worrying about pronouns, equity training, what color hair you're allowed to have, female pony tails, whatever else we are doing- cause it's working! Russia's lack of diversity is making them less lethal! The Rabbit was wrong all along!

Russia's GDP is less than Cali, Texas and NY, and juuuuuuust a bit more than Florida. Good luck replacing those tanks, dorks.


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 13, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> The utter paper-tigerness of Russia during this conflict is exquisite. THESE are the dudes we were supposed to be all hand-wringy about?!
> 
> We need to keep worrying about pronouns, equity training, what color hair you're allowed to have, female pony tails, whatever else we are doing- cause it's working! Russia's lack of diversity is making them less lethal! The Rabbit was wrong all along!
> 
> Russia's GDP is less than Cali, Texas and NY, and juuuuuuust a bit more than Florida. Good luck replacing those tanks, dorks.


Somewhere, someone is writing a book titled, "Everything You Thought You Knew About War Is Wrong".

And at some point someone still needs to explain where their air force is as well.


----------



## amlove21 (Sep 13, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Somewhere, someone is writing a book titled, "Everything You Thought You Knew About War Is Wrong".
> 
> And at some point someone still needs to explain where their air force is as well.


Feeding Ukrainian sunflowers, that's where. Lose a couple 4th gen fighters and all of a sudden those flying lines get less and less palatable. 

Just so everyone is tracking, this little proxy war shouldn't be, and I am not condoning it- I am only here for the violence.


----------



## AWP (Sep 13, 2022)

Armenia-Azerbaijan are quaking in their boots over Soviet intervention right now...


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 13, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Arrogance...



I think that's it entirely. I would have thought they'd have learned something after 6 months of this but clearly not.


----------



## pardus (Sep 13, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569842048324313089


----------



## pardus (Sep 13, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569830583156588544


----------



## pardus (Sep 13, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569794248769241088


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570092008357642240


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> I was reading these guys were the spear point to any attack on NATO. Not anymore it seems


I believe that was actually the elite Moscow defense unit. It was mauled badly in the initial phase of the war and hadn’t recovered yet.


----------



## AWP (Sep 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> I believe that was actually the elite Moscow defense unit. It was mauled badly in the initial phase of the war and hadn’t recovered yet.



How very 1941 of them. Now they can suffer the ignominy of their best equipped, most politically reliable army being shredded.


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

AWP said:


> How very 1941 of them. Now they can suffer the ignominy of their best equipped, most politically reliable army being shredded.


Next year’s May Day parade will be an equestrian event.


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

I’m still surprised that the Chechens are supporting Russia so much. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570052236780228608


----------



## AWP (Sep 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> Next year’s May Day parade will be an equestrian event.



At the rate they are going, those might be donkeys in horse costumes.


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

Ukraine war: Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570147439369125888


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

My old unit…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570141395498962944


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> Ukraine war: Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570147439369125888


Crossing the river would have been nice and all...but I figured you'd still have an axis of advance south on the eastern side of the Dnieper.


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570159982850576389


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570159982850576389


This does raise kind of an interesting question.  

If we're play a game of "what if...", what happens if Ukraine eventually pushes Russia back in full retreat to pre-Feb 24 lines...or even further?  This would clearly spell defeat for Russia but would there be any war crime trials?  Would all simply be forgotten?

Certainly Russia wouldn't punish their own for war crimes against Ukrainians, yet, at the same I imagine they'd look for some path back to relations with the rest of the modern world. Doing so would likely require accountability, i.e. like a Milosevic/Serbian level trial?  But with Russia still remaining a sovereign without any opposition forces in country, how could this happen. Seems highly unlikely.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 14, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> would there be any war crime trials? Would all simply be forgotten?



Good question. Who would have the power to administer any investigations and/or trials?


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570228197425573888


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570227163491893249


----------



## AWP (Sep 14, 2022)

A proper air defense is concerned very little about localized gains. The layers involved in a proper air defense network mitigate the loss of what should be local assets.

Ukrainian advances should have little effect on Soviet air defense capabilities unless the Ukrainians are moving faster than reported or the Soviets are incapable of layers. The latter point goes against their doctrine and practice dating back to the 1960's.


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

I can’t open the link, waiting for another source presently…


Vladimir Putin’s car ‘attacked with bomb’ in ‘assassination attempt’ over Ukraine invasion, Kremlin insider claims - NewsBreak


----------



## pardus (Sep 14, 2022)

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE: Vladimir Putin survives assassination attempt says Kremlin insider


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 15, 2022)

Can't find any references to it on Reuters or BBC but I haven't looked too hard. If true, they're probably trying to corroborate it. I wouldn't have a problem if it is. 

I would say it would be ironic if the GRU poisoned him but they can't even do that probably most of the time to unguarded targets.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 15, 2022)

Team Putin Threatens Maniacal Response to Bitter War Losses


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Sep 15, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> The utter paper-tigerness of Russia during this conflict is exquisite. THESE are the dudes we were supposed to be all hand-wringy about?!
> 
> We need to keep worrying about pronouns, equity training, what color hair you're allowed to have, female pony tails, whatever else we are doing- cause it's working! Russia's lack of diversity is making them less lethal! The Rabbit was wrong all along!
> 
> Russia's GDP is less than Cali, Texas and NY, and juuuuuuust a bit more than Florida. Good luck replacing those tanks, dorks.


Could you stop being weird for a sec? It's off putting. 

If you wanna huff and puff though, corruption has done much to gut the Russian Military. 

Corruption we're not immune from either.


----------



## pardus (Sep 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570451651537797128


----------



## pardus (Sep 16, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570616741759455233


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 16, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Can't find any references to it on Reuters or BBC but I haven't looked too hard. If true, they're probably trying to corroborate it. I wouldn't have a problem if it is.
> 
> I would say it would be ironic if the GRU poisoned him but they can't even do that probably most of the time to unguarded targets.



Given that the article can't even get basic facts right, I'm not taking it with a grain of salt, but the whole damn rock.



> The attempt to manage the media aside, *Putin’s daughter was recently taken out by a car bomb.* That would suggest that Putin and his family are being targeted, the only difference being the level of security that Putin himself enjoys.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 16, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Given that the article can't even get basic facts right, I'm not taking it with a grain of salt, but the whole damn rock.



I'll be honest I didn't read the article just tried to corroborate it or not with Western sources.


----------



## pardus (Sep 16, 2022)

U.S. announces new $600 mln arms package for Ukraine

I’ve been waiting for this news, filthy Russian cunts.

Mass grave of more than 440 bodies found in Izium, Ukraine, police say


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570809390344867840


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 16, 2022)

Canadian's training Ukrainian's in the UK.


----------



## AWP (Sep 16, 2022)

Could we stop announcing new arms packages until we’ve provided the earlier arms packages…that we promised but not yet delivered?


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Could we stop announcing new arms packages until we’ve provided the earlier arms packages…that we promised but not yet delivered?


But promising weapons is the same as providing weapons, when it comes to public image. Much easier.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Could we stop announcing new arms packages until we’ve provided the earlier arms packages…that we promised but not yet delivered?


How about we stop promising AND stop delivering?  At least until we get some accounting on how those weapons and that money is being used?


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Sep 16, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> At least until we get some accounting on how those weapons and that money is being used?


Why start now?


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 16, 2022)

wow these numbers in so short of time? It’s shocking 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570822415537811456


----------



## AWP (Sep 16, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> At least until we get some accounting on how those weapons and that money is being used?



*laughs in Pashto and Dari


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 16, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> wow these numbers in so short of time? It’s shocking
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570822415537811456


This is some WWII like numbers.


----------



## pardus (Sep 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571212831525150722


----------



## pardus (Sep 17, 2022)

Very interesting considering where the front line is presently. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571210067860459525


----------



## pardus (Sep 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571228502376026114


----------



## pardus (Sep 17, 2022)

Is this sheer incompetence or a brilliant master plan? I’m thinking and hoping it’s the former. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571319365076938752


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Is this sheer incompetence or a brilliant master plan? I’m thinking and hoping it’s the former.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571319365076938752


Makes sense to me. If you can't redeploy those forces in a timely manner to react to the counter offensive, have them strike at Territory where the position is stronger to distract and put on the Ukrainian Army on the back foot and divert resources from the ME.


----------



## AWP (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Is this sheer incompetence or a brilliant master plan? I’m thinking and hoping it’s the former.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571319365076938752



No telling. Spoiler attacks to force a shift in Ukrainian forces. Commanders trying to show Putler they are still fighting. Limited offensive for some local, tactical gain. A "reconnaissance in force" looking for an area to launch a counterattack.

It seems like a waste of resources and men, but Soviets gonna' Soviet.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 18, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

SKYFALL Imminent: Signs Of Russia's Next Nuclear-Powered Missile Test

Burevestnik actually could be ready to test!


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

China’s New Vassal


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

An insight into the Soviet mentality…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571266222871789575

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570884675975155712


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571541046273740807


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 18, 2022)

A Russian does; it's not evidence by itself that the population wants to shrink heads.

I'll try and find it again later but I saw a video last night supposedly showing a Chinese mortar bomb (and a case in the background) captured. Wouldn't be a surprise considering they're shopping around at DPRK for ammo.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> How about we stop promising AND stop delivering?  At least until we get some accounting on how those weapons and that money is being used?


Seriously? Those weapons are the reason why Ukraine are pushing the Russians back, the reason why less Ukrainians are being tortured to death right now. Why would we stop that? We can see what the aid is doing, in real time.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> A Russian does; it's not evidence by itself that the population wants to shrink heads.
> 
> I'll try and find it again later but I saw a video last night supposedly showing a Chinese mortar bomb (and a case in the background) captured. Wouldn't be a surprise considering they're shopping around at DPRK for ammo.



Every report  I've seen to date states that polls state that the Russian population support this war in percentages from 70-80%, now I was with Russians in Ukraine that were fighting for the Ukrainians, but as a population, that country can burn.
My unit was using a Chinese 60mm mortar when I was there, I don't know where it came from or where the ammo was from, but the mortar was brand new..


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Seriously? Those weapons are the reason why Ukraine are pushing the Russians back, the reason why less Ukrainians are being tortured to death right now. Why would we stop that? We can see what the aid is doing, in real time.



I think the best thing to say, is that I was quite surprised by the reactions of many to the US supporting the war effort in Ukraine.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Seriously? Those weapons are the reason why Ukraine are pushing the Russians back, the reason why less Ukrainians are being tortured to death right now. Why would we stop that? We can see what the aid is doing, in real time.


I don't want to edit my previous post as people have already given likes etc... 
I want to add though, that the above post only addresses the ethical aspect of this issue, does anyone believe Putin will stop with Ukraine? He and his cronies have stated that they want more, the Baltics at a minimum, so we would then have a NATO article 5 situation on our hands, what would that cost the US tax payer in money and the US Military in blood? I think we as a country should be grateful that we are winning a war at a budget price and Ukrainian blood only.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> I think the best thing to say, is that I was quite surprised by the reactions of many to the US supporting the war effort in Ukraine.


I'm disgusted by the conservatives in this country who rail against Ukraine and our support for it, Tucker Carlson is the Jane Fonda of this war, nothing would please me more than to see that cunt in a gutter spitting his teeth out.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> I'm disgusted by the conservatives in this country who rail against Ukraine and our support for it, Tucker Carlson is the Jane Fonda of this war, nothing would please me more than to see that cunt in a gutter spitting his teeth out.



It isn’t just Tucker. The issue is that Ukraine has become politically relevant to the point that being anti intervention is a conservative ride or die issue. Despite how intervention(particularly on the unconventional side, like we are doing now) would hurt our enemy, and help our own position. In the most EXTREME conservative view, Ukraine stood up to Trump and needs to be punished for it.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> It isn’t just Tucker. The issue is that Ukraine has become politically relevant to the point that being anti intervention is a conservative ride or die issue. Despite how intervention(particularly on the unconventional side, like we are doing now) would hurt our enemy, and help our own position. In the most EXTREME conservative view, Ukraine stood up to Trump and needs to be punished for it.



Agreed, which is why I'm so disgusted, it's not even a genuine "I believe it's the wrong thing to do", which I could respect as being honest at least, even if I totally opposed that view, but the fact that conservatives will gleefully watch innocent people be slaughtered because it's politically convenient for them, is beyond reprehensible, anyone espousing that view is an unconscionable POS IMO.

It was painful to have Ukrainians heap praise on the USA to myself and American friends over there, "America won't let Russia destroy us, the USA will save us", all the while knowing that the conservatives were railing against the support (and with echos of Afghanistan in my head), Tucker Carlson even going to Hungary to broadcast (Hungary is not a friend to Ukraine and has consistently stymied EU efforts to punish Russia). Thankfully there were many many Americans turning up in Ukraine to not only show support, but give it (and a few who gave their lives). I'm very grateful in particular to a few SF guys who were extremely helpful to me personally and the country as a whole, far beyond proportionate to their number.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571621260055961602


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571585373511221248


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Agreed, which is why I'm so disgusted, it's not even a genuine "I believe it's the wrong thing to do", which I could respect as being honest at least, even if I totally opposed that view, but the fact that conservatives will gleefully watch innocent people be slaughtered because it's politically convenient for them, is beyond reprehensible, anyone espousing that view is an unconscionable POS IMO.
> 
> It was painful to have Ukrainians heap praise on the USA to myself and American friends over there, "America won't let Russia destroy us, the USA will save us", all the while knowing that the conservatives were railing against the support (and with echos of Afghanistan in my head), Tucker Carlson even going to Hungary to broadcast (Hungary is not a friend to Ukraine and has consistently stymied EU efforts to punish Russia). Thankfully there were many many Americans turning up in Ukraine to not only show support, but give it (and a few who gave their lives). I'm very grateful in particular to a few SF guys who were extremely helpful to me personally and the country as a whole, far beyond proportionate to their number.



I wish I was in a better position to have helped you personally. I think it is the dream of any SF guy to be in a Ukranian town organizing and supplying a resistance effort, calling in HIMARS on Soviet supply lines while slotting Russians. 

The unfortunate reality is people allow petty politics to overrule that, and further our risk adverse command structure up to and including the CinC doesn’t allow for such things.


----------



## pardus (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> I wish I was in a better position to have helped you personally. I think it is the dream of any SF guy to be in a Ukranian town organizing and supplying a resistance effort, calling in HIMARS on Soviet supply lines while slotting Russians.
> 
> The unfortunate reality is people allow petty politics to overrule that, and further our risk adverse command structure up to and including the CinC doesn’t allow for such things.


Thank you mate, I sincerely appreciate that.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> It isn’t just Tucker. The issue is that Ukraine has become politically relevant to the point that being anti intervention is a conservative ride or die issue. Despite how intervention(particularly on the unconventional side, like we are doing now) would hurt our enemy, and help our own position. In the most EXTREME conservative view, Ukraine stood up to Trump and needs to be punished for it.



I don't watch TV other than sports, and if it isn't Rugby, Football, or Triathlon it's not really on my radar. I have been accused of watching Fox News on here...but who is saying any of these things?

In my conservative part of the world dead Russians is similar to the Only Good Commie is a dead Commie. 

But hey, the extremes of each party tend to be the same, except they wear different  colors of lipstick.


----------



## RustyShackleford (Sep 18, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I don't watch TV other than sports, and if it isn't Rugby, Football, or Triathlon it's not really on my radar. I have been accused of watching Fox News on here...but who is saying any of these things?
> 
> In my conservative part of the world dead Russians is similar to the Only Good Commie is a dead Commie.
> 
> But hey, the extremes of each party tend to be the same, except they wear different  colors of lipstick.


It’s not necessarily what they say but how they say it. If that makes sense.


----------



## AWP (Sep 18, 2022)

RustyShackleford said:


> It’s not necessarily what they say but how they say it. If that makes sense.



"That's fine." - Every wife ever


----------



## Kaldak (Sep 18, 2022)

AWP said:


> "That's fine." - Every wife ever



Stop reminding me of past nightmares.


----------



## AWP (Sep 18, 2022)

I'm not opposed to us aiding the Ukraine, quite the contrary, but I am opposed to the announcement of a new aid package seemingly every other week. The US' image has taken a beating over the last two decades, we don't need to promise something we may not deliver. "No buddy, I'll pick you up this weekend and we'll throw the ball around" said every deadbeat dad ever. 

If we promise 50 billion in aid or whatever, then wait until we deliver something like 70-80% before announcing a new package. "A-dub, what if they need something not in the first announcement?" Then you change the first aid package to match the current need.

Stop making additional promises before the first ones are even met. Politically driven emotional theater, but...headlines and poll numbers matter.

Here in the US we have, for decades, acted like throwing money at any problem will solve that problem. We need to break that mentality.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Seriously? Those weapons are the reason why Ukraine are pushing the Russians back, the reason why less Ukrainians are being tortured to death right now. Why would we stop that? We can see what the aid is doing, in real time.



The post this was referring to is an example of how many on the right view this conflict @ThunderHorse. I’m not accusing you of holding this viewpoint, but it is one that is championed by those like Tucker Carlson, and is pervasive on the right.


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> It isn’t just Tucker. The issue is that Ukraine has become politically relevant to the point that being anti intervention is a conservative ride or die issue. Despite how intervention(particularly on the unconventional side, like we are doing now) would hurt our enemy, and help our own position. In the most EXTREME conservative view, Ukraine stood up to Trump and needs to be punished for it.



From everything I've seen, the issue with Ukraine was the level of corruption, prior to Russian invasion and more specifically Hunter Biden, Burisma, Ukraine, blah, blah, blah. Whether there's truth or not, it doesn't matter.  The image of conflict of interest for President Biden, is immense.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> In the most EXTREME conservative view, Ukraine stood up to Trump and needs to be punished for it.


I mean I know there was a 5 minute Trump led love affair with Putin but is this for real?  Now that Shadow Spear is back online I don’t hang out on the gun board as much, I shudder to think I’m going to wander over there and find a faction of them still pro Putin through all of this shit.

What remains of my once beloved Republican Party continues to peel apart day-by-day and is morphing into a party of self-righteous and triggered buffoons who are no better than the ‘left’ we used to mock.

I feel like a man without a party.


----------



## AWP (Sep 18, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> What remains of my once beloved Republican Party continues to peel apart day-by-day and is morphing into a party of self-righteous and triggered buffoons who are no better than the ‘left’ we used to mock.
> 
> I feel like a man without a party.



My man.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> From everything I've seen, the issue with Ukraine was the level of corruption, prior to Russian invasion and more specifically Hunter Biden, Burisma, Ukraine, blah, blah, blah. Whether there's truth or not, it doesn't matter.  The image of conflict of interest for President Biden, is immense.



I’m gonna be 💯 on this. 

Does it matter? Is that why the Russians invaded Ukraine? Is that a reason not to help?


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 18, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I don't watch TV other than sports, and if it isn't Rugby, Football, or Triathlon it's not really on my radar. I have been accused of watching Fox News on here...but who is saying any of these things?
> 
> In my conservative part of the world dead Russians is similar to the Only Good Commie is a dead Commie.
> 
> But hey, the extremes of each party tend to be the same, except they wear different  colors of lipstick.


I watch Fox News.  I'm not embarrassed to say it.

These types of bills have very broad bipartisan support.  But I think it's totally reasonable to expect some fiscal accountability and to be concerned about broadening a conflict to which we are not directly a party.

If there were a Republican in the White House right now, there would be a whole bunch of (D)s voting "no."  The main difference is, in that scenario there would be some (R)s doing it as well.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I watch Fox News. I'm not embarrassed to say it.


Why would anyone be embarrassed? They consistantly have the highest ratings and I'd say that means they are the most trusted.


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> I’m gonna be 💯 on this.
> 
> Does it matter? Is that why the Russians invaded Ukraine? Is that a reason not to help?



I agree but for many, they don't care.

I've seen responses to similar questions with comparison to the lefts opposition  towards Iraq and Afghanistan.  Along with; it's a European problem, why should American's get involved.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 18, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> What remains of my once beloved Republican Party continues to peel apart day-by-day and is morphing into a party of self-righteous and triggered buffoons who are no better than the ‘left’ we used to mock.


I read an article recently stating only about 5% of Republicans side with Putin. Point being that we have our " squad " that should STFU sometimes too.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I watch Fox News.  I'm not embarrassed to say it.
> 
> These types of bills have very broad bipartisan support.  But I think it's totally reasonable to expect some fiscal accountability and to be concerned about broadening a conflict to which we are not directly a party.
> 
> If there were a Republican in the White House right now, there would be a whole bunch of (D)s voting "no."  The main difference is, in that scenario there would be some (R)s doing it as well.



Well no one is being held accountable for the the trillions we spent in Afghanistan...and the IG who was appointed was effectively told to pound sand by Congress.  So I don't think the the idiots we elect care for more than their seat.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 18, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well no one is being held accountable for the the trillions we spent in Afghanistan



That's how we roll.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Well no one is being held accountable for the the trillions we spent in Afghanistan...and the IG who was appointed was effectively told to pound sand by Congress.  So I don't think the the idiots we elect care for more than their seat.



Or the billions we spent in Syria, or that we spend in our proxy shadow wars in Africa or South America, not to mention what we do to counteract China, and various other places. I don’t see the gnashing of teeth for any of that shit. Here we actually have a legit no shit country that is antithesis to the US and our values invading a neighboring democracy, and folks are like “well let’s make sure the I’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed…” or “maybe they are corrupt” give me a fucking break. I’ve spent too much time doing stuff that I know had less oversight than this to pretend that it is suddenly an oversight issue.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Or the billions we spent in Syria, or that we spend in our proxy shadow wars in Africa or South America, not to mention what we do to counteract China, and various other places. I don’t see the gnashing of teeth for any of that shit. Here we actually have a legit no shit country that is antithesis to the US and our values invading a neighboring democracy, and folks are like “well let’s make sure the I’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed…” or “maybe they are corrupt” give me a fucking break. I’ve spent too much time doing stuff that I know had less oversight than this to pretend that it is suddenly an oversight issue.


But our old folks need to worry about Social Security drying up.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 18, 2022)

Topkick said:


> But our old folks need to worry about Social Security drying up.



Woah woah woah. That there is a liberal social net designed to make people reliant upon the government.


ThunderHorse said:


> Well no one is being held accountable for the the trillions we spent in Afghanistan...and the IG who was appointed was effectively told to pound sand by Congress.  So I don't think the the idiots we elect care for more than their seat.



To be clear, I agree you. It doesn’t happen often, but I 100% agree with you.


----------



## Polar Bear (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Every report  I've seen to date states that polls state that the Russian population support this war in percentages from 70-80%, now I was with Russians in Ukraine that were fighting for the Ukrainians, but as a population, that country can burn.
> My unit was using a Chinese 60mm mortar when I was there, I don't know where it came from or where the ammo was from, but the mortar was brand new..


Because if they don’t support it they end up dead. This is like polling Cambodias during Pol Pot reign and asking if he is a good leader


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> Every report  I've seen to date states that polls state that the Russian population support this war in percentages from 70-80%, now I was with Russians in Ukraine that were fighting for the Ukrainians, but as a population, that country can burn.
> My unit was using a Chinese 60mm mortar when I was there, I don't know where it came from or where the ammo was from, but the mortar was brand new..



I agree on all of the first point. 

On your second, that turns out to be the truth of the video- the bombs are 60mm supplied to Albania by China back when they were Maoist some time, supplied to the Ukrainians by the Albanians, captured by the Russians then recaptured by the Ukrainians. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571180467377917952
You can see the video there.


----------



## AWP (Sep 19, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Or the billions we spent in Syria, or that we spend in our proxy shadow wars in Africa or South America, not to mention what we do to counteract China, and various other places. I don’t see the gnashing of teeth for any of that shit. Here we actually have a legit no shit country that is antithesis to the US and our values invading a neighboring democracy, and folks are like “well let’s make sure the I’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed…” or “maybe they are corrupt” give me a fucking break. I’ve spent too much time doing stuff that I know had less oversight than this to pretend that it is suddenly an oversight issue.



Some of that the US public isn't aware of what's going on. They can barely tell you anything about Afghanistan and I guarantee they would "deer in the headlights" if asked about Africa.

The other problem, and I agree with your post 100% btw, is the US public has become accustomed to hearing about a new x billion dollar aid package to y country to fight z terrorists. A) It has become normal to hear this if they even follow the news and B) they generally don't care about international relations (or much of anything) until whipped into a frenzy by their media outlet of choice.


----------



## amlove21 (Sep 19, 2022)

Lots of interesting takes in this thread, to be sure. Reading them has given me some really good points to explore internally, and it's been fun to compare those takes and the stuff I have access to because of the job. 

I wonder how we look at this conflict in 10 years.


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> Because if they don’t support it they end up dead. This is like polling Cambodias during Pol Pot reign and asking if he is a good leader


Which brings up an interesting point if that is true, did 20-30% of the polling population tell Putin to jam it where the sun doesn’t shine?
I’d like to find out how these polls are conducted. I know when the media are asking people on the street, it’s all “I love Stalin”, but I wonder with the polling.


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571532105074544645

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571534447207657475


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 19, 2022)

It will have a happy home soon where it will marry a fat American tank and have a herd of rabbits.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 19, 2022)

I’m curious who claims that, if that isn’t blown to pieces before allied hands can touch it.

Pretty significant if there really are only ~100.


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571887002894868480


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571952469760004096

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571956320751783936

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571962710241284096

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571937787540312064

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571937252003160065


----------



## Totentanz (Sep 19, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> It will have a happy home soon where it will marry a fat American tank and have a herd of rabbits.



Perhaps it will see Montana…


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 19, 2022)

Topkick said:


> I read an article recently stating only about 5% of Republicans side with Putin. Point being that we have our " squad " that should STFU sometimes too.


I read that same article.  I thought it was deeply disingenuous of them to use quotes like “Ukraine is a DC distraction & scam" and “I’m more concerned with the US-Mexico border than the Russia-Ukraine border. Not sorry” as being "pro-Putin."  It is just the latest iteration of "anyone we don't like is a Nazi."


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571858728760102913

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571895436243521536

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571894313788887046

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571877349515268097


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read that same article.  I thought it was deeply disingenuous of them to use quotes like “Ukraine is a DC distraction & scam" and “I’m more concerned with the US-Mexico border than the Russia-Ukraine border. Not sorry” as being "pro-Putin."  It is just the latest iteration of "anyone we don't like is a Nazi."


I don't know if I would give that the status of an article per se, quotes taken out of context are of dubious value when it comes to someone's point of view, and to just list a selection of them without context is, as you say, disingenuous. That said, the overall point the "article" is trying to make has _some_ merit.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 19, 2022)

pardus said:


> I don't know if I would give that the status of an article per se, quotes taken out of context are of dubious value when it comes to someone's point of view, and to just list a selection of them without context is, as you say, disingenuous. That said, the overall point the "article" is trying to make has _some_ merit.



I do not think everyone who is a republican is a pro Putin fascist. I don’t think almost any republicans are. I said the most EXTREME are. Like has been said here the spectrum is really a circle, and the left and right become one at the ends.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 19, 2022)

pardus said:


> I don't know if I would give that the status of an article per se, quotes taken out of context are of dubious value when it comes to someone's point of view, and to just list a selection of them without context is, as you say, disingenuous. That said, the overall point the "article" is trying to make has _some_ merit.


What kind of merit?  It's deliberate disinformation and divisive rhetoric.  It's useless except to score political points and to further divide the country.  There is no journalistic worth to it whatsoever.


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> What kind of merit?  It's deliberate disinformation and divisive rhetoric.  It's useless except to score political points and to further divide the country.  There is no journalistic worth to it whatsoever.


I apologize, I was obviously not clear enough in my previous post, The article has no merit, the point that _some_ conservatives are at anti-Ukraine/pro Putin, has some merit.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 19, 2022)

pardus said:


> I apologize, I was obviously not clear enough in my previous post, The article has no merit, the point that _some_ conservatives are at anti-Ukraine/pro Putin, has some merit.


Roger.  Sorry I misunderstood.

By the way I read your posts in your accent.  I mentally add in the swear words.  :)


----------



## pardus (Sep 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Roger.  Sorry I misunderstood.
> 
> By the way I read your posts in your accent.  I mentally add in the swear words.  :)


Wanker    Hahaha


----------



## Topkick (Sep 19, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I read that same article.  I thought it was deeply disingenuous of them to use quotes like “Ukraine is a DC distraction & scam" and “I’m more concerned with the US-Mexico border than the Russia-Ukraine border. Not sorry” as being "pro-Putin."  It is just the latest iteration of "anyone we don't like is a Nazi."


True. Some of the quotes used as examples from outspoken R's actually had nothing to do with being pro Russia.


----------



## pardus (Sep 20, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572145859260981248


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 20, 2022)

Topkick said:


> True. Some of the quotes used as examples from outspoken R's actually had nothing to do with being pro Russia.


Exactly.  It was more garbage outrage disinformation.


----------



## pardus (Sep 20, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572225020210089985
Putin was supposed to give a speech tonight in which he _may_ announce a general mobilization of the Russian population for the war effort. It was delayed at least once, then postponed until 0800 Moscow time.


----------



## pardus (Sep 20, 2022)

Good, I want to see that evil dwarf hanging from a lamppost. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572318452605681664


----------



## Salt USMC (Sep 20, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572225020210089985
> Putin was supposed to give a speech tonight in which he _may_ announce a general mobilization of the Russian population for the war effort. It was delayed at least once, then postponed until 0800 Moscow time.


Short of deploying nukes, this is about all that he can do to try and salvage this absolute dumpster fire.  I just wonder if he and Shoygu understand just how unpopular a general mobilization likely will be.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 20, 2022)

In case anyone else was like me and didn't understand what a general mobalisation for Russia would look like, I've found this outline: 

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/...-20-russian-state-mobilization-monaghan-2.pdf


----------



## pardus (Sep 20, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Short of deploying nukes, this is about all that he can do to try and salvage this absolute dumpster fire.  I just wonder if he and Shoygu understand just how unpopular a general mobilization likely will be.


Agreed to your second point. As for the first, there is a lot more damage they could do with missile attacks, they’ve been strangely selective with what they hit even though it seems random.


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 20, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Short of deploying nukes, this is about all that he can do to try and salvage this absolute dumpster fire.  I just wonder if he and Shoygu understand just how unpopular a general mobilization likely will be.


Not to worry, this special military operation is going exactly as planned.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 21, 2022)

pardus said:


> Agreed to your second point. As for the first, there is a lot more damage they could do with missile attacks, they’ve been strangely selective with what they hit even though it seems random.



My guess is they're not hitting those because they're still considering total victory and don't want to pay to rebuild (or can't rebuild whatever those things are).


----------



## pardus (Sep 21, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> My guess is they're not hitting those because they're still considering total victory and don't want to pay to rebuild (or can't rebuild whatever those things are).


Yes, but more so that they are still stuck in their soviet mindset where they are going to win, so there is no need to destroy the infrastructure.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 21, 2022)

Yeah mate that's what I'm getting at. I wonder if the Chechans will use the diversion to regroup.


----------



## pardus (Sep 21, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> Yeah mate that's what I'm getting at. I wonder if the Chechans will use the diversion to regroup.


Ah gotcha. Yeah ive been surprised for years that the Chechens have submitted to Russian rule, they are a serious adversary and one to be kept at arm's length, but I hope they fuck the Russian bastards up.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 21, 2022)

The mobilisation has been announced. Gives him 300k more reservists. I dunno how they'll feed them.


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 21, 2022)

BBC coverage/analysis of the decree.


----------



## Kraut783 (Sep 21, 2022)

Top Russian aviation expert dies after falling down stairs

Another Russian leader dies from accident...falling down stairs....


----------



## Salt USMC (Sep 21, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Top Russian aviation expert dies after falling down stairs
> 
> Another Russian leader dies from accident...falling down stairs....


Just incredible.  Russians are so clumsy!

Really though, what does Putin do with oligarchs who live on the ground floor?  No stairs to slip on and no open windows to fall through.  It makes you practically immortal


----------



## Kaldak (Sep 21, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Just incredible.  Russians are so clumsy!
> 
> Really though, what does Putin do with oligarchs who live on the ground floor?  No stairs to slip on and no open windows to fall through.  It makes you practically immortal



Choking on food?


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 21, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Just incredible.  Russians are so clumsy!
> 
> Really though, what does Putin do with oligarchs who live on the ground floor?  No stairs to slip on and no open windows to fall through.  It makes you practically immortal


Polonium in their borscht.


----------



## pardus (Sep 21, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> The mobilisation has been announced. Gives him 300k more reservists. I dunno how they'll feed them.


It’s big news. Doesn’t help much with his equipment losses, his command and control, logistics and moral will suffer from this, not to mention the backlash from the public, who are already protesting this move and calling for Putin to go. 

This great news, I’m very surprised by it too… 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572709863721177093

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572683229366308864

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572641970094505984

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572633601308594176


----------



## pardus (Sep 21, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572719022201884672


----------



## pardus (Sep 21, 2022)

This is a brilliant idea


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572286737623449604
Be carful what you ask for lol
In Soviet Russia state enlists you!

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572665542892457985


----------



## CQB (Sep 21, 2022)

Just a bit of a spitball, or what you will. In a meeting between Xi & Putin recently, Xi apparently made a comment along the lines of “we’re not really with you on this for we don’t approve of an external power interfering internally with another.” So now referenda to officially absorb the already occupied areas of Ukraine?


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 22, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572818790060298241


----------



## pardus (Sep 22, 2022)

It’s about bloody time Israel did something meaningful to help. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573038842004774924

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573045000144928768


----------



## DasBoot (Sep 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> It’s about bloody time Israel did something meaningful to help.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573038842004774924
> ...


Israel is doing big things in the counter UAS world. That’s a huge help. People not in the know may think that’s a small contribution but knowing and working with what we have vs what the Hebrew Warriors bring to the table- big news.


----------



## DA SWO (Sep 22, 2022)

I know I am late to the party, but I have some questions and comments.

Other then Tucker Carlson, which prominent conservatives are against helping the Ukraine?
Why does saying don't fund Ukraine automatically make one pro-Putin?

I am concerned about where all those stingers went early on.  The West and (understandably) Ukraine were in full panic mode.  The number of Stingers delivered, number of Stingers claimed to have been used and the number of downed Russian aircraft doesn't add up. For me this means:
1. The Stinger is obsolete and should be removed from our inventory, or
2. The Ukrainians just shot them off like fireworks, or
3. Many are sitting in someones private warehouse for sale on the Black Market when this is all over.

Option 3 is the one that worries me, and the Ukraine government will need to do some serious accountability soon.

Criticizing those who are more worried about the border then the Ukraine isn't productive.  El Paso gets 1500 plus migrants every day, they are overwhelmed, so yeah that's a bigger issue and doesn't make you a Nazi or pro-Putin.

Obama, Trump, and Biden all have one thing in common, their SecDef's never came up with a long-term plan for switching to UK Armed Forces from Soviet to Western gear.  DoD still comes up with bullshit excuses for withholding modern gear (it'll take too long to train them).  Start training now and they will join the fight in a year (I don't see the war ending soon).

Does Putin go nuclear, escalate to deescalate was a known Soviet tactic, and I doubt that book was thrown away.

Airburst with the resulting EMP would devastate Western Europe.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 22, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I know I am late to the party, but I have some questions and comments.
> 
> Other then Tucker Carlson, which prominent conservatives are against helping the Ukraine?
> Why does saying don't fund Ukraine automatically make one pro-Putin?
> ...



Asking “other than Tucker Carlson” when Tucker Carlson is the most watched editorial news show in the US is a little disingenuous. 

His views may be his, but his audience hears them, and likes them enough to continue to tune in.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 22, 2022)

You have a fourth option, that the Russian AF is flying too high to make Stingers useful and or/they're not going over the lines.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 22, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Asking “other than Tucker Carlson” when Tucker Carlson is the most watched editorial news show in the US is a little disingenuous.
> 
> His views may be his, but his audience hears them, and likes them enough to continue to tune in.


We don't necessarily agree 💯 with everything he says. I watch JRE, but I dont agree with everything he says either.


----------



## pardus (Sep 22, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> Israel is doing big things in the counter UAS world. That’s a huge help. People not in the know may think that’s a small contribution but knowing and working with what we have vs what the Hebrew Warriors bring to the table- big news.


Apologies, I wasn’t clear enough, what I meant was it’s about time Israel stepped up in regards to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, they’ve refused to help with critical items when they were needed most earlier on in the war. 
I’m a big supporter of Israel for the record, I was just disappointed that they’ve been dragging their feet here. Then again they haven’t forgotten the Second World War so…


----------



## pardus (Sep 22, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> You have a fourth option, that the Russian AF is flying too high to make Stingers useful and or/they're not going over the lines.


Nah they’re flying low. One of the guys (Canadian) I was with downed a Russian SU (something, Fighter jet) with a Stinger.


----------



## pardus (Sep 22, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573109247507939328


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> Nah they’re flying low. One of the guys (Canadian) I was with downed a Russian SU (something, Fighter jet) with a Stinger.



Ah there we go. I'd read they were sticking high (a while ago though so good to hear some more up to date info.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 22, 2022)

Topkick said:


> We don't necessarily agree 💯 with everything he says. I watch JRE, but I dont agree with everything he says either.



But a lot of idiots do.

Remove you personally from the idea.


pardus said:


> Nah they’re flying low. One of the guys (Canadian) I was with downed a Russian SU (something, Fighter jet) with a Stinger.



Fucking A.


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 22, 2022)

Blowing up a bridge and shooting down a plane. Two commando tasks I always wanted to do.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> Apologies, I wasn’t clear enough, what I meant was it’s about time Israel stepped up in regards to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, they’ve refused to help with critical items when they were needed most earlier on in the war.
> I’m a big supporter of Israel for the record, I was just disappointed that they’ve been dragging their feet here. Then again they haven’t forgotten the Second World War so…


They're in a tough spot geo-politically.  They need to try to avoid antagonizing Russia in order to preserve their interests in Syria, and they have an ENORMOUS Russian population, like 15%.  Many of those have families in Russia.  Also, if the US is going to continue to throw tens of billions at the problem...


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 22, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Other then Tucker Carlson, which prominent conservatives are against helping the Ukraine?
> Why does saying don't fund Ukraine automatically make one pro-Putin?



The only actual politicans I know off the top of my head who no shit have said legit pro Russia stuff are Marjorie Taylor Greene and Madison Cawthorn, but both of them are coo-koo for coco puffs and not representative of the GOP.

Otherwise, it's the talking heads like Tucker, Candace Owens, and Charlie Kirk that have been saying shit like that.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 22, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I know I am late to the party, but I have some questions and comments.
> 
> Other then Tucker Carlson, which prominent conservatives are against helping the Ukraine?
> Why does saying don't fund Ukraine automatically make one pro-Putin?
> ...



The whole stupidity of the DoD strategy of giving partners obsolete Soviet gear is hilarious when our other partner nations train a different cohort of the same people and give them modern kit. Who's the idiot? Definitely our policy making politicians err Generals.

Why do we think Stingera are accurate? How many did we give the Muj in the 80s equaled how many downed airframes?


----------



## AWP (Sep 23, 2022)

Our fighters will typically launch two missiles for every air-to-air kill. Y’all want me to believe a shoulder fired missile made in the 80’s is a one shot deal?

See also: copium.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 23, 2022)

AWP said:


> See also: copium.


Had to look that one up.  Nice.


----------



## pardus (Sep 23, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573394739222941701


----------



## DasBoot (Sep 23, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573394739222941701


So do we just commit to ending Russia at this point? That’s not hyperbole, I would also like the opinion of someone who has been on the ground. 

I know we (America) have our skeletons in our closet regarding invading and generally interfering in the affairs of other nations. I do feel like, post OIF and OEF we have collectively said “that was a phase, our bad.”

Russia has been, for hundreds of years, doing shit like this. Is this when the West, plus’s maybe India, says it’s time to demilitarize? 

@pardus and @Marauder06 (the resident professor) what do you guys think?


----------



## TLDR20 (Sep 23, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> So do we just commit to ending Russia at this point? That’s not hyperbole, I would also like the opinion of someone who has been on the ground.
> 
> I know we (America) have our skeletons in our closet regarding invading and generally interfering in the affairs of other nations. I do feel like, post OIF and OEF we have collectively said “that was a phase, our bad.”
> 
> ...



We aren’t “demilitarizing” a nuclear power.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 23, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> So do we just commit to ending Russia at this point? That’s not hyperbole, I would also like the opinion of someone who has been on the ground.
> 
> I know we (America) have our skeletons in our closet regarding invading and generally interfering in the affairs of other nations. I do feel like, post OIF and OEF we have collectively said “that was a phase, our bad.”
> 
> ...


I think only the Russians can demilitarize Russia


----------



## DA SWO (Sep 23, 2022)

AWP said:


> Our fighters will typically launch two missiles for every air-to-air kill. Y’all want me to believe a shoulder fired missile made in the 80’s is a one shot deal?
> 
> See also: copium.


55 downed aircraft against what? 2000 launches?  There comes a point where we have to acknowledge the system is obsolete and production needs to end.  I think the stinger is there.


----------



## DasBoot (Sep 23, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> We aren’t “demilitarizing” a nuclear power.


That’s my logic. I’m trying to find the Ukrainian article I read that essentially call for breaking up Russia and demilitarizing it, and getting it to give up nukes. Very far fetched but I wanted educated opinions on the matter before I made up my mind on the matter.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 23, 2022)

The big question is, how? They have a homogenised ethnical makeup so you can't do it like that. Same with religion and culture and language. They're all on the same page thinking wise so I reckon you'd just end up with a kind of Eurasian EU. 

Interesting thought experiment.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 23, 2022)

Homogenized ethnically makeup? Uh...have you seen some of the Steppe types? They don't look European.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 23, 2022)

Oh yeah fuck sorry I rounded up 91% of a population into a broad statement and missed those 3% of Caucasus peoples. I hope that's to your satisfaction.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 24, 2022)

Well, Putin is about to wipe out a whole generation of Russian men. Good times. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573725446474240008


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 24, 2022)

In true Soviet fashion, they're mobilizing additional troops that will most certainly be even more poorly trained and equipped than we've seen so far, just in time for winter. Good times ahead for those poor bastards.


----------



## pardus (Sep 24, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573776608695042048


----------



## pardus (Sep 24, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> So do we just commit to ending Russia at this point? That’s not hyperbole, I would also like the opinion of someone who has been on the ground.
> 
> I know we (America) have our skeletons in our closet regarding invading and generally interfering in the affairs of other nations. I do feel like, post OIF and OEF we have collectively said “that was a phase, our bad.”
> 
> ...


I fucking hate the Russians, but it's just not a practical scenario. They are uncivilized scum that just haven't advanced in mentality. The best thing I think we can do is wall the cunts off, make them change internally before we allow them back into the global club, but even that would require China et al being on board, and it would still take years, decades...


DA SWO said:


> 55 downed aircraft against what? 2000 launches?  There comes a point where we have to acknowledge the system is obsolete and production needs to end.  I think the stinger is there.



Do we have a newer generation manpad to replace it?


SpitfireV said:


> The big question is, how? They have a homogenised ethnical makeup so you can't do it like that. Same with religion and culture and language. They're all on the same page thinking wise so I reckon you'd just end up with a kind of Eurasian EU.
> 
> Interesting thought experiment.


Not quite, siberia is asian, then you have dagestan/Checnia etc... who are all muslim, there are several languages, though they all must learn Russian too. 
I think the only practical possible scenario would be to break up the RU federation, but that would be a legitimate reason for Russia to use nukes preemptively according to their nuclear protocols.


Blizzard said:


> In true Soviet fashion, they're mobilizing additional troops that will most certainly be even more poorly trained and equipped than we've seen so far, just in time for winter. Good times ahead for those poor bastards.


Their logistics are already in the shitter, introduce low moral troops into the mix, add civil unrest in Russia and it's a huge bloody mess. Putin is going to have to be very lucky if he wants to keep his job/head.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 24, 2022)

Maybe if enough of them die in Ukraine and the sanctions start to throttle the average Moscow resident The Russians themselves  will get rid of their current government.


----------



## Jaknight (Sep 24, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573838102480637953


----------



## AWP (Sep 25, 2022)

I'm starting to wonder what Russia will run out of first: men or tanks. Doing some digging, the tank numbers (total before the war and total lost in the war) are all over the place, but you could make a case that a tenth of all tanks have been lost and well over that if you look at active tanks vs. those in storage. A tank in storage needs work to be operational...and time is finite. Some of those stored tanks will never run again AND you need them for parts thanks to sanctions hindering your ability to make new spares.

At some point Russia's operational units will be paper tigers if their armored vehicles are sent to the Ukraine to recoup losses. Russia's robbing Peter (or Pytor if you prefer) to pay Paul. Russia is flat out losing material faster than it can be replaced.


----------



## pardus (Sep 25, 2022)

Turn the sound up gentlemen and prepare to be dazzled by the cream of the Soviet conscripts…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573907650420449280


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Sep 25, 2022)

Looks like Russia's southern regions are wanting to resist mobilization.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573977123920007175


----------



## Salt USMC (Sep 25, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I know I am late to the party, but I have some questions and comments.
> 
> Other then Tucker Carlson, which prominent conservatives are against helping the Ukraine?
> Why does saying don't fund Ukraine automatically make one pro-Putin?
> ...


I’m late to this reply, but Steve Brannon is another influencer in MAGA world who is stoutly against Ukraine.  Not just aid to Ukraine, but the entire narrative of Ukraine’s defense against Russia.  He’s one of those anti-NATO guys who also parroted the story about American bio-labs in Ukraine.  He may not be hugely influential in mainstream Republican circles any more, but he’s very influential in the minds of hardcore MAGA voters.

Edit: Paul Gosar too, but that guy is just nuts


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 25, 2022)

pardus said:


> Turn the sound up gentlemen and prepare to be dazzled by the cream of the Soviet conscripts…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573907650420449280


You can’t be drafted if you’re a criminal. Oh wait….


----------



## pardus (Sep 25, 2022)

Very interesting indeed. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573962833049665538


----------



## pardus (Sep 25, 2022)

Hmm trying to post the entire thread, if that’s possible for those without Twitter.
Edit: no luck, get Twitter. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573964569587994624


----------



## BloodStripe (Sep 26, 2022)

In late August, Oryx published a report saying Belgium has no ground based air defenses to give Ukraine. That wasn’t a big shock. The big shock is they don’t have anything at all as a result of budget cuts. I’m not trying to turn this political, but it’s almost as if a few years ago a former US President pressed NATO countries to spend more on defense. Imagine how much better equipped Ukraine could be if they all actually spent to the agreed amount.


----------



## AWP (Sep 26, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> In late August, Oryx published a report saying Belgium has no ground based air defenses to give Ukraine. That wasn’t a big shock. The big shock is they don’t have anything at all as a result of budget cuts. I’m not trying to turn this political, but it’s almost as if a few years ago a former US President pressed NATO countries to spend more on defense. Imagine how much better equipped Ukraine could be if they all actually spent to the agreed amount.



I'm trying to follow your argument. Belgium not living up to its NATO military funding pledge means they have nothing to donate to a non-NATO country?


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 26, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> I’m late to this reply, but Steve Brannon is another influencer in MAGA world who is stoutly against Ukraine.  Not just aid to Ukraine, but the entire narrative of Ukraine’s defense against Russia.  He’s one of those anti-NATO guys who also parroted the story about American bio-labs in Ukraine.  He may not be hugely influential in mainstream Republican circles any more, but he’s very influential in the minds of hardcore MAGA voters.
> 
> Edit: Paul Gosar too, but that guy is just nuts


Is he "against Ukraine" or is he "against unchecked, unconditional, and unending support for the war in Ukraine?"  I don't know because I don't follow the guy.  But if being "against Ukraine" is the latter of the two, count me in that camp as well.

More importantly, being "against Ukraine" or "unending Afghanistan-style conflict in Ukraine" or whatever else is far different than being "pro-Putin," which was the original charge laid against some Republicans.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 26, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm trying to follow your argument. Belgium not living up to its NATO military funding pledge means they have nothing to donate to a non-NATO country?


That's a really good point.  At the same time, though, it's an indicator that NATO is free-riding their defense under the US military umbrella, and has been for a very long time.


----------



## Blizzard (Sep 26, 2022)

So, "our boy" Snowden was granted citizenship by Putin.  Guess, that means he's available for conscription, right?  His lawyer says it doesn't, we'll see what Moscow says.


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## BloodStripe (Sep 26, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm trying to follow your argument. Belgium not living up to its NATO military funding pledge means they have nothing to donate to a non-NATO country?


Touché because I didn’t explain it. Actual war costs more than defense. Belgium has lived vicariously through NATO now for too long. Most seem to not remember life under or near Russian control, and unless more NATO countries want Russia in their backyard again, they are going to need to be supporting Ukraine until Russia is long gone.


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## Kraut783 (Sep 26, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> So, "our boy" Snowden was granted citizenship by Putin.  Guess, that means he's available for conscription, right?  His lawyer says it doesn't, we'll see what Moscow says.



Yep, how nice would it be if he was drafted for the Ukraine conflict....that would be such wonderful Karma


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## Kraut783 (Sep 26, 2022)

Russia: man shoots officer drafting residents for war in Ukraine​
Russia: man shoots officer drafting residents for war in Ukraine

Crazy times in Russia right now....


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## CQB (Sep 26, 2022)

Winter is kommin'

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...one-of-them-with-bullets-20220922-p5bk91.html

George Brandis is a former Australian Attorney - General & High Commissioner to the UK.


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## ThunderHorse (Sep 26, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> So, "our boy" Snowden was granted citizenship by Putin.  Guess, that means he's available for conscription, right?  His lawyer says it doesn't, we'll see what Moscow says.


Merrick Garland would get some points from me for trying Snowden for Treason in absentia and getting a conviction and the death penalty in the sentencing phase.


----------



## Kraut783 (Sep 26, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Yep, how nice would it be if he was drafted for the Ukraine conflict....that would be such wonderful Karma



Congrats Comrade Snowden! You are tank commander!


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## SpitfireV (Sep 26, 2022)

Well I think reality will stop Snowden being conscripted let alone mobilised.


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## Salt USMC (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Is he "against Ukraine" or is he "against unchecked, unconditional, and unending support for the war in Ukraine?"  I don't know because I don't follow the guy.  But if being "against Ukraine" is the latter of the two, count me in that camp as well.
> 
> More importantly, being "against Ukraine" or "unending Afghanistan-style conflict in Ukraine" or whatever else is far different than being "pro-Putin," which was the original charge laid against some Republicans.


He’s in the camp of “Actually, Putin is justified in invading because of NATO expansion/euromaidan/whatever figleaf of the week”.  I think that there’s legitimate arguments to be made about the cost involved in supporting Ukraine, but folks like Bannon are not making those arguments.


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Is he "against Ukraine" or is he "against unchecked, unconditional, and unending support for the war in Ukraine?"  I don't know because I don't follow the guy.  But if being "against Ukraine" is the latter of the two, count me in that camp as well.
> 
> More importantly, being "against Ukraine" or "unending Afghanistan-style conflict in Ukraine" or whatever else is far different than being "pro-Putin," which was the original charge laid against some Republicans.





Salt USMC said:


> He’s in the camp of “Actually, Putin is justified in invading because of NATO expansion/euromaidan/whatever figleaf of the week”.  I think that there’s legitimate arguments to be made about the cost involved in supporting Ukraine, but folks like Bannon are not making those arguments.



I hate, loathe, the "Putin was justified..." defense.  It's analogous to "she deserved it because she was dressed like a slut" argument.

I am not 'pro-Ukraine' as much as I am 'anti-sovereign nation that gets invaded.'  I am also "against unchecked, unconditional, and unending support for the war in Ukraine."  As a nation we never learned the 'fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me.'  We do this all.  The.  Time.


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## amlove21 (Sep 27, 2022)

Can someone (not you, rabbit, I have an NSA guy that watches my phone) share a link or a place where I can find all this pro-Putin, always on the right side of the aisle support? I want to hear/read the people making this case. Maybe I am not as heavy on the internet as I think- I don't see this take in any real sense. 

I get the "stop spending money on this proxy war because rainbow colored fentanyl is killing kids and 5k migrants a day are walking across the southern border", but I am not seeing a lot of, "Putin was justified for these reasons".


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## Marauder06 (Sep 27, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> He’s in the camp of “Actually, Putin is justified in invading because of NATO expansion/euromaidan/whatever figleaf of the week”.  I think that there’s legitimate arguments to be made about the cost involved in supporting Ukraine, but folks like Bannon are not making those arguments.


Can you link me to those comments?  I did a quick search but the top links are (unsurprisingly) far-left hit pieces with very little actual journalism, or it quote comments other people have made in discussions with him.

Additionally, there's a lot of distance between explaining someone's rationale and saying that he's "justified" in doing them.  I think Putin's move is completely understandable from his perspective.  Russia has long been extremely wary of NATO expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.  We saw it in Georgia in 2008 after several years of that country making noise about joining NATO.  We saw it when Russia bit off large parts of Ukraine in 2014 after regime change there made NATO membership much more likely.  Russia sees Ukraine, and more importantly the West (i.e. the US) weak and wracked by internal divisions.  This was perhaps his best chance to secure a more-favorably geopolitical situation, and he took it.  That's not "justifying" his deeds, it's just understanding them.  Bannon may indeed have made justification comments, but as I said I don't follow the guy and I didn't see anything immediate when I Googled "Bannon justifies Russian invasion of Ukraine."

related reading:  Why NATO Should Not Offer Ukraine and Georgia Membership Action Plans - War on the Rocks


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## R.Caerbannog (Sep 27, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Can someone (not you, rabbit, I have an NSA guy that watches my phone) share a link or a place where I can find all this pro-Putin, always on the right side of the aisle support? I want to hear/read the people making this case. Maybe I am not as heavy on the internet as I think- I don't see this take in any real sense.
> 
> I get the "stop spending money on this proxy war because rainbow colored fentanyl is killing kids and 5k migrants a day are walking across the southern border", but I am not seeing a lot of, "Putin was justified for these reasons".


All's fair in love and war zoomie.






Tell the wiretap pog I said hello.


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## pardus (Sep 27, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574754277268103170

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574738746481729536

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574767822596702211


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## pardus (Sep 27, 2022)

Very interesting to see the Russian harbour area/camp. Pretty shabby. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574786422275457027


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## Cookie_ (Sep 27, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Can someone (not you, rabbit, I have an NSA guy that watches my phone) share a link or a place where I can find all this pro-Putin, always on the right side of the aisle support? I want to hear/read the people making this case. Maybe I am not as heavy on the internet as I think- I don't see this take in any real sense.



Almost all of the "pro-Putin" takes are from people in the right-wing "outrage coverage" media space.  Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, and Tucker Carlson have all made comments about Putin attacking the "globalists" in Ukraine, or Putin fighting against "woke-western ideology".  I don't think any of them are Pro-Putin as much as they are fitting culture war talking points into an international incident.

The same is true of the politicians like MTG and Madison Cawthorn, who called Ukraine Neo-Nazis and woke, respectively. It's not really about Ukraine or Putin as much as it is finding a way to turn the war into anti-Biden/Dem talking points. 

The only legit "Putin is doing a good thing" takes I've seen are from dudes like Nick Fuentes, and that guy is a legit white nationalist, so not really someone I think should be representative of a "right-wing" pro-Putin take.


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## DA SWO (Sep 27, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Yep, how nice would it be if he was drafted for the Ukraine conflict....that would be such wonderful Karma


Snowden isn't eligible as he doesn't have prior service per his attorney.


Cookie_ said:


> Almost all of the "pro-Putin" takes are from people in the right-wing "outrage coverage" media space.  Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, and Tucker Carlson have all made comments about Putin attacking the "globalists" in Ukraine, or Putin fighting against "woke-western ideology".  I don't think any of them are Pro-Putin as much as they are fitting culture war talking points into an international incident.
> 
> The same is true of the politicians like MTG and Madison Cawthorn, who called Ukraine Neo-Nazis and woke, respectively. It's not really about Ukraine or Putin as much as it is finding a way to turn the war into anti-Biden/Dem talking points.
> 
> The only legit "Putin is doing a good thing" takes I've seen are from dudes like Nick Fuentes, and that guy is a legit white nationalist, so not really someone I think should be representative of a "right-wing" pro-Putin take.


I read the story you linked (Nick F) what is GAB? I ask because the CEO is a Putinista.


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## pardus (Sep 27, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574819474984902660


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## Marauder06 (Sep 27, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Almost all of the "pro-Putin" takes are from people in the right-wing "outrage coverage" media space.  Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, and Tucker Carlson have all made comments about Putin attacking the "globalists" in Ukraine, or Putin fighting against "woke-western ideology".  I don't think any of them are Pro-Putin as much as they are fitting culture war talking points into an international incident.
> 
> The same is true of the politicians like MTG and Madison Cawthorn, who called Ukraine Neo-Nazis and woke, respectively. It's not really about Ukraine or Putin as much as it is finding a way to turn the war into anti-Biden/Dem talking points.
> 
> The only legit "Putin is doing a good thing" takes I've seen are from dudes like Nick Fuentes, and that guy is a legit white nationalist, so not really someone I think should be representative of a "right-wing" pro-Putin take.


So we all agree that there are **not** a significant percentage of Republicans who are "pro-Putin?"  Because that's what started this line of discussion.


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## Salt USMC (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> So we all agree that there are **not** a significant percentage of Republicans who are "pro-Putin?"  Because that's what started this line of discussion.


Nah, there’s a couple of weirdos on the far right and like two congressional reps, but not much beyond that.


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## amlove21 (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> So we all agree that there are **not** a significant percentage of Republicans who are "pro-Putin?"  Because that's what started this line of discussion.


That's what I was getting at as well. 

Reading this thread, I was under the impression this is some sort of formalized GOP talking point that I somehow missed... but it turns out there's a white nationalist that's outspoken on the matter and that's seemingly it? And if you maybe highlight the fact that Ukraine is one of the more corrupt countries in the world with a dictator Obama installed masquerading as a democracy, like Tucker and Candace have, you get thrown into the same boat? 

And on that topic specifically, I would be willing to agree to...


Cookie_ said:


> The same is true of the politicians like MTG and Madison Cawthorn, who called Ukraine Neo-Nazis and woke, respectively. It's not really about Ukraine or Putin as much as it is finding a way to turn the war into anti-Biden/Dem talking points.


... this- but in the reverse. It most certainly seems like someone is making it a talking point politically, but all evidence points to the Dems highlighting a fringe member of the GOP, making it seem like that's a main-party point supported by most and then demonizing everyone on that side. 

And I know, I know, the Dems would never do such a thing like they did with CRT or gender ideology in schools or abortion or climate change or election integrity or transing the kids or drag queen story hour for kids or labeling parents as terrorists or labeling things as vaccine misinformation or keeping books in a child's library that openly describes anal sex meant for 5th graders


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## Marauder06 (Sep 27, 2022)

Now that that's settled, I'm curious about what the board's thoughts are on this piece.  To sum up, Putin claims his callup is "limited" and will only involve 300,000 troops.  I don't think that's enough for what he says its for, and it may be a ruse for... I don't know, something else.
@pardus @DasBoot

*Link to story*




> But what if Putin’s partial mobilization is “partial” at all, but much more widespread than he has so far let on? A largescale mobilization, under the screen of a smaller one, makes sense in the Russian strategy of “maskirovka,” or deception. And Putin will need more troops if he is anticipating a wider struggle inside or outside Ukraine with Western forces.


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## Cookie_ (Sep 27, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I read the story you linked (Nick F) what is GAB? I ask because the CEO is a Putinista.



It's one of the "free speech" twitter clones. It became a hub for the "Christian Nationalist"/neo-nazi crowd when stormfront (Neo-Nazi forum) went down for a bit in 2017.  



Marauder06 said:


> So we all agree that there are **not** a significant percentage of Republicans who are "pro-Putin?"  Because that's what started this line of discussion.



Pretty much. I think it was a bit of a "fuck Tucker Carlson" take that took broader swipes at "conservatives" as shorthand. 



amlove21 said:


> ... this- but in the reverse.* It most certainly seems like someone is making it a talking point politically*, but all evidence points to the Dems highlighting a fringe member of the GOP, making it seem like that's a main-party point supported by most and then demonizing everyone on that side.
> 
> And I know, I know, the Dems would never do such a thing like they did with CRT or gender ideology in schools or abortion or climate change or election integrity or transing the kids or drag queen story hour for kids or labeling parents as terrorists or labeling things as vaccine misinformation or keeping books in a child's library that openly describes anal sex meant for 5th graders



I see the bolded more from media sources than politicians. I'm sure there have been a few people with hawkish takes in support of Ukraine attacking any GOP member not fully on board, but I can't think of anything off the top of my head.


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## Cookie_ (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Now that that's settled, I'm curious about what the board's thoughts are on this piece.  To sum up, Putin claims his callup is "limited" and will only involve 300,000 troops.  I don't think that's enough for what he says its for, and it may be a ruse for... I don't know, something else.
> @pardus @DasBoot
> 
> *Link to story*
> ...



The partial mobilization seems less like a military focused choice and more a domestic one.  Putin clearly needs more than 300k based on how badly he was already losing professional troops, but he needed to see if it would be possible to do a national draft.

As shown by the attacks against recruitment centers, this probably isn't the case.

At this point, the best policy for the US regarding Russia is probably to just support our NATO allies and wait for Russia to implode itself. 
As long as the populace doesn't have a enemy to unite against other than their own government, it seems Putin may get himself overthrown.


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## RackMaster (Sep 27, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Now that that's settled, I'm curious about what the board's thoughts are on this piece.  To sum up, Putin claims his callup is "limited" and will only involve 300,000 troops.  I don't think that's enough for what he says its for, and it may be a ruse for... I don't know, something else.
> @pardus @DasBoot
> 
> *Link to story*
> ...



Aside from mass conscription, I'm not sure Putin has many more options.   From everything I've seen, these are retired members being called up; zero retraining/skill upgrade and straight to the front.


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## amlove21 (Sep 27, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Aside from mass conscription, I'm not sure Putin has many more options.   From everything I've seen, these are retired members being called up; zero retraining/skill upgrade and straight to the front.


Crazy that Putin's "sort of" conscription of 300K is just shy of how many active duty AF people there are (325K ish). 

I've seen the same floating around- videos of Russians leaving the processing places for the front without training or equipment.


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## Marauder06 (Sep 27, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> So do we just commit to ending Russia at this point? That’s not hyperbole, I would also like the opinion of someone who has been on the ground.
> 
> I know we (America) have our skeletons in our closet regarding invading and generally interfering in the affairs of other nations. I do feel like, post OIF and OEF we have collectively said “that was a phase, our bad.”
> 
> ...


I've never been to Ukraine or Russia and I don't study the area closely so consider that when you read my response.

Like many people, I'm torn on this issue and my views are clouded by the shadows cast by my limited experiences.  But I think we have a really, really poor track record when it comes to getting involved in other peoples' conflicts.  Vietnam, Korea, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria... lots of blood and treasure for what was, in almost every case I just listed, some very limited results.

At the same time, as I've said many times here on the site, appeasement never works.  That's the same if the bully is here on the page, or is the leader of a nuclear-armed country.  So by not intervening as we have, an emboldened Putin might be even stronger by the time he goes after something that we decide we do care about.

At the same (same-same?) time, we are throwing A LOT of money we don't have, at a fight that's not directly ours.  Our focus should be on China.  They're the ones who are going to upset the US-led world order, not the f'ing Russians.  So yeah, I'm conflicted...

The thing I respect the most about Ukraine is that they actually have the will to fight.  And (with extensive help from us) they are good at it.  Like most people who (unlike me) are actual experts in the region, I expected Ukraine to fold in a matter of weeks.  It's refreshing to me for us to be supporting a side that actually has the will to not only fight, but to win.

When it comes to regime change in Russia, I'm not sure that's in our long term interests, at least not if it's a sudden cataclysmic change.  I think Putin is a terrible human being and the Russian regime is a bad one.  But we saw in Iraq, Syria, and Iran (and many other places) that sometimes stability is better than having a good (by Western standards) national leader.  In addition to geography and people, another major difference between Russia and the Middle Eastern states I just named is that Russia has nukes.  Like... a lot of them.  And given the level of corruption in that country, a lot of that material, as well as mass-casualty conventional weapons, might find its way into the black market and be used against our interests.  I've seen what happens when you take down a regime and don't have the means and/or will to install something better.  Three times.  I'm not looking for Round 4.


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## JedisonsDad (Sep 27, 2022)

This is a big deal. Russia has discussed “legal use” of nukes if their land is attacked.


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## Marauder06 (Sep 27, 2022)




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## JedisonsDad (Sep 27, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423


That’s an interesting fish bowl. 

“There are millions of ethnic minorities that can take my place”

“Send the useless musicians and art majors. What happens when they come for us”

That shows exactly what those people think.


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## Jaknight (Sep 27, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423


Wow all that shit talking in that show he does and when it’s time to step up he shows his true colors yellow and brown.


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## ThunderHorse (Sep 27, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Almost all of the "pro-Putin" takes are from people in the right-wing "outrage coverage" media space.  Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, and Tucker Carlson have all made comments about Putin attacking the "globalists" in Ukraine, or Putin fighting against "woke-western ideology".  I don't think any of them are Pro-Putin as much as they are fitting culture war talking points into an international incident.
> 
> The same is true of the politicians like MTG and Madison Cawthorn, who called Ukraine Neo-Nazis and woke, respectively. It's not really about Ukraine or Putin as much as it is finding a way to turn the war into anti-Biden/Dem talking points.
> 
> The only legit "Putin is doing a good thing" takes I've seen are from dudes like Nick Fuentes, and that guy is a legit white nationalist, so not really someone I think should be representative of a "right-wing" pro-Putin take.




I just love how none of you guys are bringing up the Democrats who also are pro-Putin. Here's one.  There are many others of his ilk.  Why this discussion even went anywhere I don't know other than certain folks political persuasion.  I also find it funny how hard google makes it to find these articles from legitimate news sources that discuss the pro Russia democrats. 

Meet the Democrat siding with Putin on the Ukraine war


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## Cookie_ (Sep 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I just love how none of you guys are bringing up the Democrats who also are pro-Putin. Here's one.  There are many others of his ilk.  Why this discussion even went anywhere I don't know other than certain folks political persuasion.  I also find it funny how hard google makes it to find these articles from legitimate news sources that discuss the pro Russia democrats.
> 
> Meet the Democrat siding with Putin on the Ukraine war


We briefly mentioned Pro-Putin dems, but nobody had an example readily available 

Thanks for providing one. 


pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423



As much as I'd believe the subtitles are their actual feelings (particularly the "ethnic minorities should fight for me"), it seems that account just posts satirical subtitles. 

I wonder how close the translation actually is.


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## Blizzard (Sep 28, 2022)

So, what to make of the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline off Sweden?

Western leaders blame 'deliberate' sabotage after Nordsteam pipeline

Confidence appears to be high that it's the result of sabotage.  But who did it?  Easy finger points at the Soviets. Repairs are estimated to take a week. So, while a leak isn't really in their interest right now, it's only short term and possibly sends some sort of message to greater Europe?

It's been a busy day for general jackassery.


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## Marauder06 (Sep 28, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> So, what to make of the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline off Sweden?
> 
> Western leaders blame 'deliberate' sabotage after Nordsteam pipeline
> 
> ...


Russians seem like the obvious culprits, kind of a “nice civilization you’ve got there… shame if… everyone should freeze to death this winter” reminder.  But there are many other potential perpetrators, if this was indeed sabotage.  

I do t know the details but it seems like something like this would take a little bit of equipment and expertise.  Not the usual “Molotov on a police station” type of action.


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## Marauder06 (Sep 28, 2022)

I read this* article in Foreign Policy this morning* and thought it was interesting:



> With Russia greatly diminished and an economic recession looming, current pledges to increase European defense capabilities will lose steam, and America’s NATO allies will go back to relying on Uncle Sam for protection. Despite many past failures, proponents of liberal hegemony will claim vindication, at least temporarily.
> 
> So, what’s wrong with that?


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## RackMaster (Sep 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Russians seem like the obvious culprits, kind of a “nice civilization you’ve got there… shame if… everyone should freeze to death this winter” reminder.  But there are many other potential perpetrators, if this was indeed sabotage.
> 
> I do t know the details but it seems like something like this would take a little bit of equipment and expertise.  Not the usual “Molotov on a police station” type of action.



My first thought is, who gains the most from new gas contracts to replace Nord Stream and that Europe had hesitated to do business with recently.


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## Devildoc (Sep 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I've never been to Ukraine or Russia and I don't study the area closely so consider that when you read my response.
> 
> Like many people, I'm torn on this issue and my views are clouded by the shadows cast by my limited experiences.  But I think we have a really, really poor track record when it comes to getting involved in other peoples' conflicts.  Vietnam, Korea, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria... lots of blood and treasure for what was, in almost every case I just listed, some very limited results.
> 
> ...



I love most of the Russian people.  They are awesome.  I hate Russia.  It is not awesome.  People assume that because they look like us (westerners) they think like us, and that ain't true.  The people are in a real pickle.  

I pretty much agree with you.  Appeasement does not work.  Our type of engagement does not work.  How much is enough especially in light that China is watching with interest?  I hate throwing bad money after good, but right now we don't have ANY money to be throwing at them (and yet, we do, while we slide to recession and worsening inflation).  

I don't like Putin.  Never have.  I waffle on regime change, I see both sides of the argument, but maybe it's the devil you know. I DO know that in order for it to have the best odds it needs to be organic.  I fear if we/the west tries to interfere we'll fuck it up like we always do (see all situations, ever).


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## pardus (Sep 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575179397422010368
Oh the irony…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575045581226983425


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## Locksteady (Sep 28, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Confidence appears to be high that it's the result of sabotage.  But who did it?  Easy finger points at the Soviets.


Assuming it was sabotage, that is certainly possible, whether Putin wanted to send a message about Russian capabilities to other fuel sources ahead of the Baltic Pipe launch or, given his all-in mentality during this invasion, permanently remove the cashcow incentive for Russian oligarchs to try and overthrow him.



RackMaster said:


> My first thought is, who gains the most from new gas contracts to replace Nord Stream and that Europe had hesitated to do business with recently.


Indeed.

Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson argued it was just as possible - if not _*more*_ likely -  that Americans were responsible, since the US only stood to profit by putting the final nail in the coffin of Russia's main bargaining chip with the EU.

CIA's advanced warning to Berlin weeks ago about possible future attacks on both the pipelines that were sabotaged doesn't exactly erode Carlson's claim, either, for those prone to conspiratorial thinking about the federal government and the IC in particular.

Also (though the claim may not directly apply since Germany ultimately did cancel it shortly after the invasion), in before a bloodthirsty airborne rabbit reminds us how President Biden famously threatened to end Nord Stream II back in February if Russia invaded Ukraine.

This will be an interesting European winter.


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## AWP (Sep 28, 2022)

pardus said:


> Oh the irony…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575045581226983425


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## Kraut783 (Sep 28, 2022)

The guy thinking...."For fuck sakes, here we go again....."


----------



## pardus (Sep 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Now that that's settled, I'm curious about what the board's thoughts are on this piece.  To sum up, Putin claims his callup is "limited" and will only involve 300,000 troops.  I don't think that's enough for what he says its for, and it may be a ruse for... I don't know, something else.
> @pardus @DasBoot
> 
> *Link to story*
> ...



I think that is an excellent article and quite accurate. I'd be very surprised if the mobilization stops at 300k. Kudos to the author.



Marauder06 said:


> I've never been to Ukraine or Russia and I don't study the area closely so consider that when you read my response.
> 
> Like many people, I'm torn on this issue and my views are clouded by the shadows cast by my limited experiences.  But I think we have a really, really poor track record when it comes to getting involved in other peoples' conflicts.  Vietnam, Korea, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria... lots of blood and treasure for what was, in almost every case I just listed, some very limited results.
> 
> ...


As I've stated previously, this is our war, just not directly, and just not yet. It will be a lot cheaper in money and blood if we get in now as we have done, rather than wait for an article 5 situation to happen and we have to roll a few divisions into Ukraine. If we continue what we are doing, we can roll Putin back to his side of the playground and contain him. He's not going to beat Ukraine now, whether we can push him back behind his own border is probably up to us. I'm proud of what the USA is doing over there, most of Europe are acting like weak bitches, with notable exceptions of the Baltics and Poland (and I could probably put Slovenia in there too though I'm not really up on the Intel there), Germany is  going to freeze this winter and it's their own fault for sucking up to Russia for gas, Trump offered Merkel a deal but she snubbed him and went with Putin, Germany voted for her so now they and Ukrainians suffer as a result (she was probably a KGB/FSB plant anyway and can die slowly in a fire as far as i'm concerned).
Leave Putin in power, that's not our place, he's shot himself in the foot, we just need to wait until he blleds out, but we need to keep the sanctions strong.


ThunderHorse said:


> I just love how none of you guys are bringing up the Democrats who also are pro-Putin. Here's one.  There are many others of his ilk.  Why this discussion even went anywhere I don't know other than certain folks political persuasion.  I also find it funny how hard google makes it to find these articles from legitimate news sources that discuss the pro Russia democrats.
> 
> Meet the Democrat siding with Putin on the Ukraine war


Fuck anyone who supports Putin. My issue is with T Carlson.


Cookie_ said:


> We briefly mentioned Pro-Putin dems, but nobody had an example readily available
> 
> Thanks for providing one.
> 
> ...


I now believe that was satirical/fake news and I have deleted it, my apologies everyone.


----------



## pardus (Sep 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Russians seem like the obvious culprits, kind of a “nice civilization you’ve got there… shame if… everyone should freeze to death this winter” reminder.  But there are many other potential perpetrators, if this was indeed sabotage.
> 
> I do t know the details but it seems like something like this would take a little bit of equipment and expertise.  Not the usual “Molotov on a police station” type of action.



Russia is a convenient culprit, obvious, maybe too obvious, however Putin has shown that he's not above doubling down on a dumb idea, or lashing out like a cornered, injured animal. I would've thought it'd be more beneficial for him to take out the Norwegian pipeline but what would I know. The rational part of me says Putin won't use a tactical nuke in Ukraine but I think it's entirely possible.

————————————————-


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575236893008363521


----------



## pardus (Sep 28, 2022)

Now this is interesting…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574849994062020609

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574867965991854093
The author…


----------



## Polar Bear (Sep 28, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> So, what to make of the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline off Sweden?
> 
> Western leaders blame 'deliberate' sabotage after Nordsteam pipeline
> 
> ...


Fuxking Biden and his New Green Deal. He had the Umbrella Company do it


----------



## DA SWO (Sep 28, 2022)

Those pipelines are trash, salt water intrusion will make repairs too costly.

I don't know who did it, but to assume only Russia could do it is naive.  US and other countries have the capability.  Short of a confession, we will never know.

I am pro-Ukraine, but anyone who thinks all the money is spent honestly is naive.  Look at the last line of the last package announce.  Funding for sustainment, logistics, training.  That money is going to get siphoned off into Politician and Sr Military pockets.  Hell, R's and D's will probably get some kickback (Hunter gets a consulting contract?).
That's where I draw the line.  There is never accountability for fundage.  

FWIW- I also see this as a NATO vs Russia war, Ukraine is just our proxy.  
China is a threat, but not the boogyman everyone thinks.  They are a maritime nation, and have to navigate choke points galore (but that is a discussion for another day).


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 29, 2022)

Fun times ahead...

Putin to annex four Ukrainian territories in Kremlin ceremony on Friday


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 29, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Fun times ahead...
> 
> Putin to annex four Ukrainian territories in Kremlin ceremony on Friday



With his nuke comments, this explains sending cannon fodder to shore defenses.   Nothing to lose with fallout.


----------



## Steve1839 (Sep 29, 2022)

Interesting turn of events.  "You can't draft me, I'm an American"...

U.S. Moscow Embassy security alert warns Americans to leave Russia

ETA: Seems like impressment is one of the issues that led to the War of 1812.


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 29, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I love most of the Russian people. They are awesome. I hate Russia. It is not awesome. *People assume that because they look like us (westerners) they think like us, and that ain't true.* The people are in a real pickle.



There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.

His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. They generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense. He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.

Because of the above mindset, he doesn't think the average Russian citizen has a well defined "line" when it comes to the actions the Putin government takes; he likened them to the frog from the boiling water parable. 
He gave a few scenarios in which he could see the Russian populace being motivated to act counter to the government; the use of nuclear weapons, invasion by a foreign force, and partial/mass mobilizations.


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.
> 
> His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. They generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense. He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.
> 
> ...



I agree with his assessment.  They are also paranoid nationalists (love for Mother Russia) with an ongoing sense of persecution who think everyone is out to get them, and often support 'defensive invasions' as a tactic to secure buffer areas and states.


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1575374283529920512?s=46&t=Nu0ZnXQPZ8JXX1Q3hND57Q


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575265303130361859


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575531759374147584


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.
> 
> His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. T*hey generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense.* He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.
> 
> ...


Very interesting, thank you for posting that.

Regarding the bolded part:  I think most people are like that.  That's how you get a 20-year period of warfare; "if it doesn't affect me, I don't really care."  The main reason the Viet Nam war ended when it did was because of the resistance to it.  The reason there was resistance to it was because there was a draft, i.e. it could affect me or someone I actually care about, vs. the chumps who volunteer to go off to war.

That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days.  Get serious about it, or get out.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 29, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Very interesting, thank you for posting that.
> 
> Regarding the bolded part:  I think most people are like that.  That's how you get a 20-year period of warfare; "if it doesn't affect me, I don't really care."  The main reason the Viet Nam war ended when it did was because of the resistance to it.  The reason there was resistance to it was because there was a draft, i.e. it could affect me or someone I actually care about, vs. the chumps who volunteer to go off to war.
> 
> That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days.  Get serious about it, or get out.


Agree, except I'm generally against a draft.
I get the need for more troops and it may come to that, but as a Senior NCO, I'd rather have 10 good soldiers than 30 RagBags who don't want to be there.


----------



## Marauder06 (Sep 29, 2022)

Topkick said:


> Agree, except I'm generally against a draft.
> I get the need for more troops and it may come to that, but as a Senior NCO, I'd rather have 10 good soldiers than 30 RagBags who don't want to be there.


I agree from a military perspective.  But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them.  So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft.  It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.


----------



## RackMaster (Sep 29, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I agree from a military perspective.  But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them.  So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft.  It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.



A year of national service of some sort, tie it to apprenticeships and a war clause, forcing retention or call up past your initial service.   Give them a very basic training, then off to public service of some sort.  Rebuilding failing infrastructure would be a good use.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 29, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I agree from a military perspective.  But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them.  So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft.  It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.


And to go to war for real reasons. Take Iraq, I personally remember some civilians in my world saying they didn't believe Iraq had WMDs and/or were involved in 9/11. Can you expect people to get behind a war if they are not convinced it has any merit?


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days.  Get serious about it, or get out.





RackMaster said:


> A year of national service of some sort, tie it to apprenticeships and a war clause, forcing retention or call up past your initial service.   Give them a very basic training, then off to public service of some sort.  Rebuilding failing infrastructure would be a good use.



Agreed, Along with a mandatory and at least commensurate increase in budget for the VA.


----------



## SpitfireV (Sep 29, 2022)

I liked Germany's old system either a year of military service or a year of, for lack of a better term offhand, social service in a hospital, retirement homes etc.


----------



## Topkick (Sep 29, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I liked Germany's old system either a year of military service or a year of, for lack of a better term offhand, social service in a hospital, retirement homes etc.


I'm all about an all volunteer military, but I like this. If you don't want to fight, you can certainly help in some other capacity.


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

I hope it was slow and exceptionally painful!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575471774237589509


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 29, 2022)

Compulsory national service with a partial draft; a draft tied to incentive for volunteering: "sign up and get choice of x, y, or z.  Drafted, you get no choice."


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Compulsory national service with a partial draft; a draft tied to incentive for volunteering: "sign up and get choice of x, y, or z.  Drafted, you get no choice."


Which of course now includes females.


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575548156603174912


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575450978685444104


----------



## pardus (Sep 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575585908409016320


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Sep 29, 2022)

Spoiler: Just experimenting with which wacky visual I”m going to need in the next few days…


----------



## Dame (Sep 29, 2022)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Spoiler: Just experimenting with which wacky visual I”m going to need in the next few days…


In case of coup, break dance.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 29, 2022)

Army’s First Trans Officer Indicted for Spying for Russia | National Review


----------



## amlove21 (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Army’s First Trans Officer Indicted for Spying for Russia | National Review


There is a really cynical joke about mental stability and security clearances here, I just don't care enough to craft it. 

Preferred pronouns- Traitorself/Traitor


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Army’s First Trans Officer Indicted for Spying for Russia | National Review



Guillotine, thanks.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 29, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Guillotine, thanks.


Especially considering they stated they considered enlisting in the Russian military POST Ukraine invasion.

Interested to see what medical records on Bragg were targeted.


----------



## Cookie_ (Sep 29, 2022)

Am I crazy, or is the second army servicemember recently caught trying to help the Russians?

I swear I read a similar headline a couple days ago, but I can't find it now.

ETA: I found This former NSA who was recently caught, but I don't think it's the one I saw.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Am I crazy, or is the second army servicemember recently caught trying to help the Russians?
> 
> I swear I read a similar headline a couple days ago, but I can't find it now.


I know a few years back there was a 10th Group guy that was assisting the Russians.

And then there is the navy family that was selling secrets, but I don’t remember to who.


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Especially considering they stated they considered enlisting in the Russian military POST Ukraine invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



John Walker was the patriarch of the spy ring.

Medical records are weird.  I'm not sure the General's ulcer is classified.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 29, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> John Walker was the patriarch of the spy ring.
> 
> Medical records are weird.  I'm not sure the General's ulcer is classified.


No, but I know when I go to med, I have to write my squadron and job.

They potentially were capable of compiling targeted lists of Bragg units, associating names to MOSs and units.


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> No, but I know when I go to med, I have to write my squadron and job.
> 
> They potentially were capable of compiling targeted lists of Bragg units, associating names to MOSs and units.



I'm being snarky about the General's ulcer; still, it's a weird thing to steal and pass to the enemy.  Leadership and their positions are open source.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Sep 29, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I'm being snarky about the General's ulcer; still, it's a weird thing to steal and pass to the enemy.  Leadership and their positions are open source.


You aren’t necessarily going after the leaders, but the size of the force, names associated, medical status, immunizations, all of that stuff.

Additionally, it was illegal enough for FBI to get a conviction, but not secret enough to risk severe spillage.


----------



## Devildoc (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> You aren’t necessarily going after the leaders, but the size of the force, names associated, medical status, immunizations, all of that stuff.
> 
> Additionally, it was illegal enough for FBI to get a conviction, but not secret enough to risk severe spillage.



A traitor is a traitor.  I hope they get the electric chair.

Simply accessing it is illegal (HIPPA and patient records confidentiality).

Walker and Intel, Hanson and Intel, these schmucks and medical records.  Still weird.


----------



## Locksteady (Sep 29, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Army’s First Trans Officer Indicted for Spying for Russia | National Review


Bravo, FBI.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 29, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Am I crazy, or is the second army servicemember recently caught trying to help the Russians?
> 
> I swear I read a similar headline a couple days ago, but I can't find it now.
> 
> ETA: I found This former NSA who was recently caught, but I don't think it's the one I saw.



Laughs in Bradley Manning.


----------



## pardus (Sep 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575893236383506432


----------



## Salt USMC (Sep 30, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> ETA: I found This former NSA who was recently caught, but I don't think it's the one I saw.


Damn, June to July.  They caught this idiot QUICK


----------



## Dame (Sep 30, 2022)

Salt USMC said:


> Damn, June to July.  They caught this idiot QUICK


Yeah, but you gotta wonder about the hiring process.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Sep 30, 2022)

Dame said:


> Yeah, but you gotta wonder about the hiring process.


Laughs in Edward Snowden.


----------



## DA SWO (Sep 30, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575893236383506432


Could be a show of force, get folks use to bombers at that location.  They only need one plane for a show of resolve.  Multiple launches, attacks ups the need for retaliation.

I am having GLOBAL SHIELD flashbacks.

Good news, I played on Nuke Map and an 800kt burst puts me in the 3rd degree burn zone.


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 1, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575853684852150272


----------



## Cookie_ (Oct 1, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575853684852150272


Here's the Twitter thread as a Substance article.

That speech is interesting because of some of the philosophical criticisms of the "west" that Putin is throwing in there.

Things like Western Neo-colonialism and our tendency to destabilize governments we don't agree with (hi South America circa 1950s-1980s) are valid criticisms that most Russian citizens are probably familiar with. 

Add a dash of the worst bits of our history to really emphasize how "bad" we are (genocide, slave trade, WW2 carpet bombing) and he gets to wrap up the crazier propaganda elements of his speech in a decent veneer of legitimacy. 

I wonder if this will rile up more nationalists to go fight, or if it's too late for him to win the population over.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 1, 2022)

In a strange move, Russia has withdrawn troops from their recently annexed lands.

I’d say check the winds to see potential fallout course, and if it’s blowing west, maybe raise an eyebrow…

Edit to remove “all troops” and change it to just “troops”. Also to add link.

Russia Says Forces Withdrawn From Eastern Ukraine's Lyman


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 1, 2022)

Russia abandons Ukrainian bastion, Putin ally suggests nuclear response


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 1, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Russia abandons Ukrainian bastion, Putin ally suggests nuclear response


If, and it's a big "if", the Soviets went this route, would they attempt to say they nuked their own sovereign land?  Warped but that may be an attempted justification.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 1, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> In a strange move, Russia has withdrawn troops from their recently annexed lands.
> 
> I’d say check the winds to see potential fallout course, and if it’s blowing west, maybe raise an eyebrow…
> 
> ...


Happened at Izyum too. UkA is pretty good at isolating key towns and GLOCs which forces full withdrawal. But it helps that it's yours and not theirs I'm sure.


----------



## AWP (Oct 1, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> If, and it's a big "if", the Soviets went this route, would they attempt to say they nuked their own sovereign land?  Warped but that may be an attempted justification.



Or a chemical/ biological attack.


----------



## Dame (Oct 1, 2022)

> In a strange move, Russia has withdrawn troops from their recently annexed lands.
> I’d say check the winds to see potential fallout course, and if it’s blowing west, maybe raise an eyebrow…


@JedisonsDad The bastard pulled a Napoleon-in-Egypt. Turn utter defeat into "victory" by just saying "we win."


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 1, 2022)

Dame said:


> @JedisonsDad The bastard pulled a Napoleon-in-Egypt. Turn utter defeat into "victory" by just saying "we win."


I mean, it’s _one_ method. Hahaha


----------



## AWP (Oct 1, 2022)

That’s all we had to do in Afghanistan?!?!?


----------



## Salt USMC (Oct 1, 2022)

Dame said:


> @JedisonsDad The bastard pulled a Napoleon-in-Egypt. Turn utter defeat into "victory" by just saying "we win."


Honestly I thought he was going to do this months ago after the Kyiv offensive failed.  At the time, it seemed like the best way to salvage the campaign and save face was to say, “Actually we just wanted to annex Donetsk the entire time, which we did, so….we win!” I’m really surprised it took Putin this long to settle on this COA.

What remains to be seen is if Ukrainian forces continue to press their advantage into these “annexed” territories and risk a strategic strike, or if they consolidate their gains and use this pause to rest and refit.


----------



## Salt USMC (Oct 1, 2022)

AWP said:


> That’s all we had to do in Afghanistan?!?!?


----------



## pardus (Oct 2, 2022)

This is great news, I hope they can take advantage of it and quickly. I want to see that bank cleared before the weather etc… halts the offensive. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576602192990961664


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 2, 2022)

So we announced another aid package of 1.1B.  Not that I have issue with this.  I do have issue with us not delivering the previous 3 or so in full before announcing the last two we've announced.  Also, enjoy the excess HMMWVs that we've been trying to get rid of. . Everything else in the aid package it probably very useful though!


----------



## pardus (Oct 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576671657682501636


----------



## AWP (Oct 2, 2022)

Afghan vets watching the Ukrainians using their aid packages..







9 years of my life...


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> Afghan vets watching the Ukrainians using their aid packages..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I mean... at least SOMEONE is using them.  In the way they were intended to be used, I mean.


----------



## AWP (Oct 2, 2022)

I shouldn't be, but I am so fucking bitter...


----------



## pardus (Oct 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576708610733887489


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> I shouldn't be, but I am so fucking bitter...



I was ok but now that Zelensky is trying to get their NATO application expedited, hit me hard.  I understand where he's coming from but the ignorance that that would automatically initiate WW3 and likely nuclear war.   I'm torn now.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 2, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I was ok but now that Zelensky is trying to get their NATO application expedited, hit me hard.  I understand where he's coming from but the ignorance that that would automatically initiate WW3 and likely nuclear war.   I'm torn now.


Not the first time they attempted to join NATO or the West.  Remember, what started this was Yanukovych violating the will of the Ukrainian people and becoming a Russian puppet.  Although not surprisingly he was from Donetsk.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 2, 2022)

AWP said:


> I shouldn't be, but I am so fucking bitter...


You did your part bro, and did more than most.


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 2, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Not the first time they attempted to join NATO or the West.  Remember, what started this was Yanukovych violating the will of the Ukrainian people and becoming a Russian puppet.  Although not surprisingly he was from Donetsk.



Oh I know and the circumstances for denial haven't changed, the list got longer.  
It's this.  
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/30/ukraine-application-nato-russia-war/


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 2, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Oh I know and the circumstances for denial haven't changed, the list got longer.
> It's this.
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/30/ukraine-application-nato-russia-war/


Yes I understand.  But not the first time Zelensky has asked for this since the beginning of the war either.


----------



## Dame (Oct 3, 2022)

AWP said:


> I shouldn't be, but I am so fucking bitter...


If it makes you feel any better, Cupcake and I, along with several members of this forum, spent countless hours getting people out of that shithole. I was even able to meet with some of them almost a year later. It was humbling.
ETA: I learned a lot from @pardus during those days.


----------



## MIkeH92467 (Oct 3, 2022)

I completely agree with the earlier comment that it's naive to think all of the aid going to Ukraine (money or materiel) are being properly spent/utilized. Corruption is a fact of life in war time. I have no doubt that there are plenty of Cayman Islands bank accounts being stuffed with the proceeds from arms sales to Ukraine. That is not a reason in my book to block the pipeline. There's a lot more at stake here than the criminality of some of our beneficiaries. I also totally with agree with @pardus that 300k is a fantasy number when it comes to Putin's "partial mobilization". The anecdotal reports I've seen indicate that the Russian press gangs are rounding up everyone with a pulse. There also are enough reports of flights out of Russia and highways out of Russia being jammed with men who might be subject to the "partial mobilization" that give me the impression that the Russians aren't buying the 300k figure either.
The argument over NATO countries "freeloading" on the US is not simple. As one poster noted, it's always cheater to deter a war than to fight one. So the question arises: are we better off to just look the other way when it comes to a country refusing to pay it's "fair share". We have to decide if getting stiffed on payments is worth the payoff of not having to spend blood and treasure on war.


----------



## pardus (Oct 3, 2022)

Dame said:


> If it makes you feel any better, Cupcake and I, along with several members of this forum, spent countless hours getting people out of that shithole. I was even able to meet with some of them almost a year later. It was humbling.
> ETA: I learned a lot from @pardus during those days.


Me!? 🤔


MIkeH92467 said:


> I completely agree with the earlier comment that it's naive to think all of the aid going to Ukraine (money or materiel) are being properly spent/utilized. Corruption is a fact of life in war time. I have no doubt that there are plenty of Cayman Islands bank accounts being stuffed with the proceeds from arms sales to Ukraine. That is not a reason in my book to block the pipeline. There's a lot more at stake here than the criminality of some of our beneficiaries. I also totally with agree with @pardus that 300k is a fantasy number when it comes to Putin's "partial mobilization". The anecdotal reports I've seen indicate that the Russian press gangs are rounding up everyone with a pulse. There also are enough reports of flights out of Russia and highways out of Russia being jammed with men who might be subject to the "partial mobilization" that give me the impression that the Russians aren't buying the 300k figure either.
> The argument over NATO countries "freeloading" on the US is not simple. As one poster noted, it's always cheater to deter a war than to fight one. So the question arises: are we better off to just look the other way when it comes to a country refusing to pay it's "fair share". We have to decide if getting stiffed on payments is worth the payoff of not having to spend blood and treasure on war.


The Europeans now (again) see why NATO is vital and needs to be properly funded.


----------



## pardus (Oct 3, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576987688548192256


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576987688548192256



If "Poseidon" lives up to its billing, then that would be bad.


----------



## Kraut783 (Oct 3, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I was ok but now that Zelensky is trying to get their NATO application expedited, hit me hard.  I understand where he's coming from but the ignorance that that would automatically initiate WW3 and likely nuclear war.   I'm torn now.



I can understand him wanting in NATO.....since the 1994 Budapest Memorandum was a bust and totally screwed them.


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 3, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> I can understand him wanting in NATO.....since the 1994 Budapest Memorandum was a bust and totally screwed them.



I get it but frankly this goes beyond NATO.  That application is a vote for mutually assured destruction.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> If "Poseidon" lives up to its billing, then that would be bad.


Let me tell you, the motherland reports this is the most devastating, unstoppable weapon ever developed and the test was 100% successful.


----------



## pardus (Oct 3, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I get it but frankly this goes beyond NATO.  That application is a vote for mutually assured destruction.


Which is the overall point though, Russia knows it can't fuck with NATO, Ukraine is the bullied outsider now, it's almost a free target for Russia to fuck with. Could you imagine what the Baltics would be facing right now if they weren't NATO members?
That all said, I don't see Ukraine being admitted into NATO anytime soon.


----------



## Polar Bear (Oct 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> If "Poseidon" lives up to its billing, then that would be bad.


Oh it does, best damn pizza I have ever had. https://www.poseidonspizzacompany.com/


----------



## Kraut783 (Oct 3, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I get it but frankly this goes beyond NATO.  That application is a vote for mutually assured destruction.



Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining, as well as Bosnia, Herzegovina and Georgia. Putin has all the excuses he wants to start a war over countries joining NATO. 

I hate it all, but....I don't know what the hell is going to happen.....


----------



## Dame (Oct 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Me!? 🤔
> 
> The Europeans now (again) see why NATO is vital and needs to be properly funded.


Oh yeah. Remember the man-child who needed constant reassurance and reminders NOT to keep looking out the window? I had to resist my instinct to tell him to man-up and zip it cuz, "woman." 

Not to derail the thread though.


----------



## pardus (Oct 3, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Finland and Sweden are in the process of joining, as well as Bosnia, Herzegovina and Georgia. Putin has all the excuses he wants to start a war over countries joining NATO.
> 
> I hate it all, but....I don't know what the hell is going to happen.....


Russia is the weakest that it has been since 1917, call their bluff, they only have one card left. That said, I sincerely hope our people are speaking to people there and telling them to keep their fingers well away from the big red button, and I hope the leadership there realizes that Mutually Assured Destruction is not just a cool name for a metal band. 


Dame said:


> Oh yeah. Remember the man-child who needed constant reassurance and reminders NOT to keep looking out the window? I had to resist my instinct to tell him to man-up and zip it cuz, "woman."
> 
> Not to derail the thread though.


Oh Yeah, that was exceedingly frustrating. He's still there with his family afaik, I wiped my hands once he refused to be evacuated.


----------



## pardus (Oct 4, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577042523230416896

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577168391005167620

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576975332510298112


----------



## Andoni (Oct 4, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> Oh it does, best damn pizza I have ever had. https://www.poseidonspizzacompany.com/


That pizza looks so good.


----------



## Locksteady (Oct 4, 2022)

Attaboy, Amb. Melnyk!

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576977000178208768


----------



## AWP (Oct 4, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm starting to wonder what Russia will run out of first: men or tanks. Doing some digging, the tank numbers (total before the war and total lost in the war) are all over the place, but you could make a case that a tenth of all tanks have been lost and well over that if you look at active tanks vs. those in storage. A tank in storage needs work to be operational...and time is finite. Some of those stored tanks will never run again AND you need them for parts thanks to sanctions hindering your ability to make new spares.
> 
> At some point Russia's operational units will be paper tigers if their armored vehicles are sent to the Ukraine to recoup losses. Russia's robbing Peter (or Pytor if you prefer) to pay Paul. Russia is flat out losing material faster than it can be replaced.



I don't know if his numbers are accurate, because this guy paints a pretty bleak picture of Soviet armor. Completely out of tanks in less than 3 years? I also hadn't considered the manpower issue: training and quality. Anyway, this guy has something like half of all active tanks being destroyed in the Ukraine.


----------



## pardus (Oct 5, 2022)

Rory was a member of my old unit, though I didn’t know him. An American who I won’t name ( and I also didn’t know) will be pronounced KIA soon as well from what I’ve been told. 
They died during a difficult but successful assault that ended with every man in the element being either KIA or WIA. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577652555340988424


----------



## pardus (Oct 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> I don't know if his numbers are accurate, because this guy paints a pretty bleak picture of Soviet armor. Completely out of tanks in less than 3 years? I also hadn't considered the manpower issue: training and quality. Anyway, this guy has something like half of all active tanks being destroyed in the Ukraine.


Starting to see a lot of T-64s on the battlefield now, I can't imagine it gives crews a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing they are using tanks that old, that were probably bought out of storage due to the newer/better tanks being destroyed.


----------



## AWP (Oct 5, 2022)

pardus said:


> Starting to see a lot of T-64s on the battlefield now, I can't imagine it gives crews a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing they are using tanks that old, that were probably bought out of storage due to the newer/better tanks being destroyed.



If Wikipedia can be believed, the T-64 is also rather complex to operate and maintain which led to the mass adoption of the T-72. Sure, some have been "modernized", but you still have a tank designed in the late 50's/ early 60's. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a bunch of them broken down on the side of the road before this year is out.


----------



## AWP (Oct 5, 2022)

@pardus are y'all seeing a lot of tanks with reactive armor?


----------



## pardus (Oct 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> @pardus are y'all seeing a lot of tanks with reactive armor?



Yeah, but a lot of it is fake, filled with rubber, cardboard etc... or just empty. I don't know if they used to have reactive armour and it was pilfered, or there was never any installed. There is some real reactive armour out there, but not a lot in my experience.


----------



## AWP (Oct 5, 2022)

pardus said:


> Yeah, but a lot of it is fake, filled with rubber, cardboard etc... or just empty. I don't know if they used to have reactive armour and it was pilfered, or there was never any installed. There is some real reactive armour out there, but not a lot in my experience.



If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.

Also, stop misspelling "armor."


----------



## pardus (Oct 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.
> 
> Also, stop misspelling "armor."


I know AT-4s are there, but I never saw one, we had the "new" M-72s, NLAWs, RPG-18s, the Spanish C-90.
Do not disparage the King's English you uncouth Colonial!


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 5, 2022)

AWP said:


> If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.
> 
> Also, stop misspelling "armor."


King’s English requires them to hold on to as many “U”s as possible, ever since they lost the last U to the U.S.


----------



## SpitfireV (Oct 5, 2022)

I think that was more like "U can fuckin' have it then."


----------



## amlove21 (Oct 5, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I think that was more like "U can fuckin' have it then."


To quote Chris Brown- “these MF hating from outside the club… y’all can’t even get in!” Kidding, I don’t wanna talk about visas for 12 hours, dork.

And it wasn’t a ‘U’ y’all held, it was a permanent uppercase L.


----------



## SpitfireV (Oct 6, 2022)

We weren't part of things then that's all someone else's L.

*dusts hands* Where's my fucking tea?


----------



## Totentanz (Oct 6, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> *dusts hands* Where's my fucking tea?


You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.


----------



## AWP (Oct 6, 2022)

If only House of the Dragon had this level of writing.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 6, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.


You win the Internet for the day.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 6, 2022)

Totentanz said:


> You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.



I just spit my coffee all over my laptop.  Best post ever.  I declare thee King Post.


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

Seems like a hell of a lot, I’d like to see some more verification of this. 
The loss of gear when the Russians have to cross the Dnipro is going to be huge though as it’s basically going to be a Dunkirk situation. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577951710592618496


----------



## AWP (Oct 6, 2022)

Even at 25% those are unsustainable numbers for Team Orc.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 6, 2022)

A friend sent me this (brief) article:  Maneuver Warfare

@pardus and anyone else; any sense that the Russians are doing a 'strategic withdrawal' to prepare for a massive counteroffensive/large-scale ambush?  I have no idea.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 6, 2022)

If Oryx also categorized losses by theatre / battles, that would be extra neat.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 6, 2022)

A new type of Russian mine MOB / OLA-8T was captured by Ukrainian forces.






From an article:



> This is a relatively new Russian development of a mine, and there are practically no data about it on the Internet.
> 
> OLA-8T marking indicates its composition: octogen – 77%, aluminum – 8%, compound (LD-70, polyacrylic polymer, stabiliser) – 15%. The detonation velocity is 8430 m/c with a density of 1.84 g/cm3.
> 
> ...


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

Interesting, it’s Putin’s birthday tomorrow too. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578086542395965456


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 6, 2022)

For the pro Ukraine members, what’s your thoughts on this?

U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> A friend sent me this (brief) article:  Maneuver Warfare
> 
> @pardus and anyone else; any sense that the Russians are doing a 'strategic withdrawal' to prepare for a massive counteroffensive/large-scale ambush?  I have no idea.


From what I can glean the Russians don’t have the strength/numbers to do that. In the Kherson region north of the Dnipro, they are looking at a Dunkirk style evacuation, leaving all heavy equipment behind. The Russians are also bringing T-62/64s back into service because they’re running out of T-72/80s, plus they’re mobilizing hundreds of thousands of civilians to fight. My friends on the frontline are telling me that the Russians had one trench line, once that was breached there was nothing holding them back. Nothing that I can see indicates the Russians have anything left to launch a serious counterattack with. They are getting resupplied with ammo, but their loss of equipment is staggering, but more importantly their moral is really low. 
There are no guarantees in war and I might be completely wrong, but I think a brilliant, master plan to destroy Ukraines offensive with a counter stroke is akin to Hitler waiting for Steiner to come and rescue Berlin.


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> For the pro Ukraine members, what’s your thoughts on this?
> 
> U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says


Good. Kill her father too.


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> Good. Kill her father too.


Was the daughter actively participating in the battlefield or general in the ranks of controlling troops? What’s your definition of a war crime? Are you okay if Russia now targets Zelenskyy’s family?


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Was the daughter actively participating in the battlefield or general in the ranks of controlling troops? What’s your definition of a war crime? Are you okay if Russia now targets Zelenskyy’s family?


Here we fucking go...   
First of all I'm not here to answer every ridiculous question you can come up with. 
If you want to talk about war crimes how about you do 5 minutes of a google search on what the Russians have done in Ukraine. They invaded a neutral country and have raped, tortured and murdered tens of thousands of people, and your going to cry over one communist bitch that incited this violence? GTFO!
Here's a box of gold teeth recovered from a Russian torture cell, have a great day!


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> From what I can glean the Russians don’t have the strength/numbers to do that. In the Kherson region north of the Dnipro, they are looking at a Dunkirk style evacuation, leaving all heavy equipment behind. The Russians are also bringing T-62/64s back into service because they’re running out of T-72/80s, plus they’re mobilizing hundreds of thousands of civilians to fight. My friends on the frontline are telling me that the Russians had one trench line, once that was breached there was nothing holding them back. Nothing that I can see indicates the Russians have anything left to launch a serious counterattack with. They are getting resupplied with ammo, but their loss of equipment is staggering, but more importantly their moral is really low.
> There are no guarantees in war and I might be completely wrong, but I think a brilliant, master plan to destroy Ukraines offensive with a counter stroke is akin to Hitler waiting for Steiner to come and rescue Berlin.



What is the current sitch regarding Russian airpower?  Are they getting CAS as they retreat?


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> What is the current sitch regarding Russian airpower?  Are they getting CAS as they retreat?


The RuAF is flying but not a lot. My friends watched a Ru fighter jet plow into the ground about 200 meters from them a couple of days ago which they were pretty excited about.
The skies are really quite empty though (I only saw 2 aircraft in the air in 3 mths, one jet and one chopper), The Russians lost a few aircraft early on and I think it scared them. 
So effectively, no the retreat is not being covered by CAS, more drones than anything, this war is all about drones and artillery, and both sides are using them very effectively.


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> A friend sent me this (brief) article:  Maneuver Warfare
> 
> @pardus and anyone else; any sense that the Russians are doing a 'strategic withdrawal' to prepare for a massive counteroffensive/large-scale ambush?  I have no idea.


----------



## SpitfireV (Oct 6, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Was the daughter actively participating in the battlefield or general in the ranks of controlling troops? What’s your definition of a war crime? Are you okay if Russia now targets Zelenskyy’s family?



I wouldn't call that a fair comparison since this wasn't Putin's daughter nor, to my knowledge (I might be wrong) are any of Zelensky's kids actively involved in being a propagandist. Play adult games get adult prizes. 

It would also be a bit of a world first if the GRU could actually kill someone they were targeting.


----------



## AWP (Oct 6, 2022)

Looking at the numbers on Oryx, something like 10% of all manufactured Su-34’s have been shot down in the Ukraine. This is to be the backbone of their modern Air Force as they slowly retire the Su-24. They’ve lost one whole squadron of -34’s and two squadrons of Su-25’s. 

The Soviets are at a point where they can’t make good on their equipment losses in this war. And think of all the EW, ISR, and other electronic assets that were captured. 

This war has set the Soviets back years as they try to recover from their losses and compromised tech.


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

AWP said:


> Looking at the numbers on Oryx, something like 10% of all manufactured Su-34’s have been shot down in the Ukraine. This is to be the backbone of their modern Air Force as they slowly retire the Su-24. They’ve lost one whole squadron of -34’s and two squadrons of Su-25’s.
> 
> The Soviets are at a point where they can’t make good on their equipment losses in this war. And think of all the EW, ISR, and other electronic assets that were captured.
> 
> This war has set the Soviets back years as they try to recover from their losses and compromised tech.


Shit that's a lot! 
Yeah, Russian is going spend many years and a shitload of money to replace what they are throwing away here, and if they loose what is projected in the Kherson bridgehead, it will gut them.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> Shit that's a lot!
> Yeah, Russian is going spend many years and a shitload of money to replace what they are throwing away here, and if they loose what is projected in the Kherson bridgehead, it will gut them.



Your statement is what makes me think it’s going to be a play for keeps situation for current Russian administration. They either conquer a country and use its assets to replenish their loses, or they lose it all in a massive fireball. 

I just don’t see it practical for Russia to tuck it’s tail and try to rebuild literally, financially, militarily, or socially.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 6, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Your statement is what makes me think it’s going to be a play for keeps situation for current Russian administration. They either conquer a country and use its assets to replenish their loses, or they lose it all in a massive fireball.
> 
> I just don’t see it practical for Russia to tuck it’s tail and try to rebuild literally, financially, militarily, or socially.


This seems to be the reality that's quickly approaching.


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578165416949469184
Ukraine is firing 6,000 artillery rounds per day, I can’t imagine what the Russians are firing with their numeric superiority. 

Pakistan, Ukraine, And The Race For Third-Party Ammunition


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 6, 2022)

Starting to see reports that Ukraine is well positioned to take back Crimea.


----------



## Salt USMC (Oct 6, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Starting to see reports that Ukraine is well positioned to take back Crimea.


It would be extra hilarious if this little military adventure ends up reverting the territory to pre-2014 status.  Talk about failing all of your objectives, and then adding a few extra to fail at as well


----------



## pardus (Oct 6, 2022)

That’s a lot of damage for one day, shit that’s a lot of damage for one year. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578204667624017920

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578204669880442881


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 6, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> I wouldn't call that a fair comparison since this wasn't Putin's daughter nor, to my knowledge (I might be wrong) are any of Zelensky's kids actively involved in being a propagandist. Play adult games get adult prizes.
> 
> It would also be a bit of a world first if the GRU could actually kill someone they were targeting.


From what I recall, speculation was that Dugin's daughter wasn't the intended target.  It was his car, not hers, and she took it instead more/less "at the last minute".   Something like that.  I haven't followed it that closely.  Anyway...  

The person at the top of "the list" should be Ramzan Kadyro, he's a Chechen that was just promoted to General by Putin.  He thinks nuclear weapons should be used.  He deserves to be schwacked.


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 6, 2022)

I see a lot of Twitter people demanding we stop supplying Ukraine and call up Putin to strike a deal. Yet whenever I say what Security guarantees would there be for Ukraine or what would they gain if they make a deal I get Crickets…


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 7, 2022)

pardus said:


> Here we fucking go...
> First of all I'm not here to answer every ridiculous question you can come up with.
> If you want to talk about war crimes how about you do 5 minutes of a google search on what the Russians have done in Ukraine. They invaded a neutral country and have raped, tortured and murdered tens of thousands of people, and your going to cry over one communist bitch that incited this violence? GTFO!
> Here's a box of gold teeth recovered from a Russian torture cell, have a great day!



The actions of Russia committing war crimes does not excuse Ukraine to do the same. I’d hold our own military to the same thing.

Ukraine has the right to defend themselves and launch counter attacks inside of Russia in response, but to target a non military personis weak; especially like you said, it wasn’t even one of Putin’s children.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 7, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578263274730229760


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 7, 2022)

I was waiting for this.  This is a dangerous game he's playing.

Ukraine's Zelenskyy calls for NATO to launch 'preemptive strikes' in Russia, spokesperson forced to clarify


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 7, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> The actions of Russia committing war crimes does not excuse Ukraine to do the same. I’d hold our own military to the same thing.
> 
> Ukraine has the right to defend themselves and launch counter attacks inside of Russia in response, but to target a non military personis weak; especially like you said, it wasn’t even one of Putin’s children.



Doubt GRU is responsible. But would be nice if they took Snowden out for us.


----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578308226709590017

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578400005601230849


----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> The actions of Russia committing war crimes does not excuse Ukraine to do the same. I’d hold our own military to the same thing.
> 
> Ukraine has the right to defend themselves and launch counter attacks inside of Russia in response, but to target a non military personis weak; especially like you said, it wasn’t even one of Putin’s children.


What war crime? I said nothing about Putin's children, you're just talking nonsense about things you clearly don't understand.


----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Starting to see reports that Ukraine is well positioned to take back Crimea.


It's possible, but I think it's a little early for that thought, it would basically require a collapse of the Russian invasion force, which is definitely on the cards, but we aren't there yet, Russia is still a very large and powerful force, and you know what they say about counting chickens. If we do see a rout across the Dnipro with the Soviets abandoning their heavy equipment, well then I think we can get a little more optimistic. Loosing Crimea for Russia means loosing the Black Sea fleet naval base in Sevastopol, Russia does not want that to happen in the worst way. That could be tactical nuke territory, that said, it should happen, come what may. There are too many cowards that want to exchange freedom for peace, fuck those people, death is better than slavery.


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 7, 2022)

pardus said:


> What war crime? I said nothing about Putin's children, you're just talking nonsense about things you clearly don't understand.


You’re right, I miss quoted you when it was Spitfire who mentioned Purim’s kid. My wrong. But..

the rest of your post is substantially off. A war crime is a war crime and two wrongs don’t make a right. And while I’ve never been to Ukraine, don’t question what I’ve done in support of them. There’s a lot of silent professionals on here who don’t feel the need to broadcast where they are or what they’ve done.


----------



## AWP (Oct 7, 2022)

RE: the Crimea. Not only do you have the issue of Sevastopol, but will Ukrainian logistics survive even that short trip outside of their current lines?


----------



## DasBoot (Oct 7, 2022)

AWP said:


> RE: the Crimea. Not only do you have the issue of Sevastopol, but will Ukrainian logistics survive even that short trip outside of their current lines?


The Ukrainians have proven the Always Sunny mantra-


----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578491654180196353


----------



## pardus (Oct 7, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> You’re right, I miss quoted you when it was Spitfire who mentioned Purim’s kid. My wrong. But..
> 
> the rest of your post is substantially off. A war crime is a war crime and two wrongs don’t make a right. And while I’ve never been to Ukraine, don’t question what I’ve done in support of them. There’s a lot of silent professionals on here who don’t feel the need to broadcast where they are or what they’ve done.


Gotcha, understood.
What war crime? Some Soviet bitch was killed, when a car was blown up by peoples unknown, possibly by Russian govt entities, and probably by a Russian citizen, a death she deserved many times over. The sooner her father and all her ilk are killed the better, for all mankind. 
If you have supported Ukraine then I thank you sincerely, as do the people of Ukraine, trust me. Your last sentence just says to me that you really aren't that silent my friend. There are some very serious operators from the US and all over the world who are there who would be at least as vociferous as I in reply to you.


AWP said:


> RE: the Crimea. Not only do you have the issue of Sevastopol, but will Ukrainian logistics survive even that short trip outside of their current lines?


That is a question that weighs heavily on my mind, I'm surprised (pleasantly) that they've managed to keep it going as long as they have now. In fact I didn't think they had it in them to do it in the first place, we all thought we were on the loosing side right up until the offensive started. I'm super impressed with a force I had railed against as being a backwards, Soviet based, incompetent, overwhelmed force. My humble pie is rather sweet though.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 8, 2022)

Kerch bridge was hit.
Happy birthday Vlad.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Kerch bridge was hit.
> Happy birthday Vlad.


“Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you…” 🥳


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578619795087687680


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 8, 2022)

I was watching some of the Russian media and something hit me. The Psychological impact of this must be devastating to the Russians. They along with most of the world where raised to believe they were a mighty army. A force so powerful it would take the collective west and all its men and resources to stop them. They are supposed to be this bear of iron and fire. Instead they have shown themselves to be nothing but hot air a paper bear


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> Gotcha, understood.
> What war crime? Some Soviet bitch was killed, when a car was blown up by peoples unknown, possibly by Russian govt entities, and probably by a Russian citizen, a death she deserved many times over. The sooner her father and all her ilk are killed the better, for all mankind.
> If you have supported Ukraine then I thank you sincerely, as do the people of Ukraine, trust me. Your last sentence just says to me that you really aren't that silent my friend. There are some very serious operators from the US and all over the world who are there who would be at least as vociferous as I in reply to you.
> 
> That is a question that weighs heavily on my mind, I'm surprised (pleasantly) that they've managed to keep it going as long as they have now. In fact I didn't think they had it in them to do it in the first place, we all thought we were on the loosing side right up until the offensive started. I'm super impressed with a force I had railed against as being a backwards, Soviet based, incompetent, overwhelmed force. My humble pie is rather sweet though.


U.S. Believes Ukraine Was Behind Assassination of Putin Ally’s Daughter

Definition of war crime:
Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts: 

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
Source: https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml

My last comment towards you since clearly you think targeting civilians in retaliation is okay. Hope you aren’t involved in any since your definition of war crime doesn’t meet that of the international courts. Perhaps you should read the entire source definition to help educate yourself. While you’re at it, share it with the Russians.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578653629933703170

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578658967374659586

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578625961868038145


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578653629933703170
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578658967374659586
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578625961868038145


I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.

The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 8, 2022)

If only they used a bigger truck and more explosives.  The fact this happened, shows the Russians weren't devoting the right resources or not enough.


----------



## AWP (Oct 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.
> 
> The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.




Yes and no. The Soviets aren't pulling all of their defense forces around the bridge because of the damage. They will surely conduct a BDA and find out how much traffic can pass over it at any point in time, weight, etc. You'll still need forces to defend the bridge and if this is as important as they say, the Sovs might double down on security. Then you have risk-reward. Let's say every troop and system guarding the bridge were pulled out and sent to the front, is the loss of logistical capability worth facing extra men on the battlefield? This also puts pressure on your other MSR's...which means the Sovs may have to commit more troops and systems to guard those routes.

Plus the psychological impact: "someone" or "something" just dropped a major supply line WELL behind the lines in the Ukraine. Everyone within 100 miles of the front will start seeing ghosts now.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 8, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> If only they used a bigger truck and more explosives.  The fact this happened, shows the Russians weren't devoting the right resources or not enough.


Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 8, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.


I would go with a truck bomb, or an explosive attached to a rail car.
Psychological impact is going to be huge.


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 8, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.



I'll have to look for it but there's security camera footage of a truck when the blast occurred.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 8, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I'll have to look for it but there's security camera footage of a truck when the blast occurred.


Yeah, I'm not saying it was, just that it was speculated as a possibility, however, it appears they've walked back that speculation based on the footage you mention:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578635768305967104

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578659339573035008


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578686276240568320


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578748628046270464

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578772733944631299


----------



## Gordus (Oct 8, 2022)

According to Russian security services, the driver of the suspected truck "bomb" was a citizen of Krasnodar, Russia. Doesn't necessarily seem like the explosion was caused by any vehicle. Maybe the bridge was mined / saboutaged ?


----------



## AWP (Oct 8, 2022)

Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.
> 
> The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.


http://www.hisutton.com/Russia-Kerch-Bridge-Decoys-Gone.html

For some reason Russia removed its own defense barges from the bridge last month, which I found odd  at the time. As @AWP says, the Russians will only increase resources to defend the bridge now, as well as their amphibious capabilities which I’m sure they know are highly vulnerable to the Ukrainian mini sub drones.
Once the land bridge to Crimea is cut on the mainland, this is all they have left and they know it.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578756626403631105


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

AWP said:


> Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?


Or was it seaborne? I’m very curious. The bridge section that dropped into the sea doesn’t look like it’s received a blast from above to my untrained eyes, but I really don’t know.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578787872102289409


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 8, 2022)

I'm looking forward to the naval phase of destroying and abandoning Russian equipment.

Paging @racing_kitty for blast analysis.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.
> 
> The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.



That makes no sense since Crimea is a logistics and staging area for the Southern Axis.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 8, 2022)

AWP said:


> Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?





Gordus said:


> According to Russian security services, the driver of the suspected truck "bomb" was a citizen of Krasnodar, Russia. Doesn't necessarily seem like the explosion was caused by any vehicle. Maybe the bridge was mined / saboutaged ?


Is the truck driver alive?  Knowing who owned the truck is useless if the driver/owner is dead.
@AWP Good question.  I'd like to think it is the former, though the latter is also a possibility.
I assume the cars near the truck also vaporized, that sucks.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 8, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Is the truck driver alive?  Knowing who owned the truck is useless if the driver/owner is dead.
> @AWP Good question.  I'd like to think it is the former, though the latter is also a possibility.
> I assume the cars near the truck also vaporized, that sucks.



No info on the truck driver yet, but reportedly 3 people died, including two in a car driving next to the truck.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

So in this clip there is definitely something moving under the bridge immediately before the explosion, Whether that has anything to do with it I don’t know, could just be waves. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578642054988849153


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

Two spans dropped, then one intact then another one dropped. Very fucking interesting. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578646726621433856


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578871260024827904


----------



## Gordus (Oct 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> So in this clip there is definitely something moving under the bridge immediately before the explosion, Whether that has anything to do with it I don’t know, could just be waves.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578642054988849153



pardus, you might be on to something.






Someone in the comments also points out the lack of "blast damage" on the surface of the road. I‘m not educated in these thing, but now that was mentioned, it does strike me as a little odd.

It may not have even been a mystery seaborne craft or weapon, but perhaps the detonation didn’t occur on the surface ?

Edit: There are large visible scorch on the surface of the parts that collapsed, shown on more recent pictures though.


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578843111178264578


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578658526066462720


----------



## AWP (Oct 8, 2022)

Never thought I'd want to talk to an 18C, but I have questions...


----------



## pardus (Oct 8, 2022)

Caught him! Lol


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578662950701002759


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 8, 2022)

Question can one control the blast? Like direct it upwards or downwards?


----------



## Polar Bear (Oct 8, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Question can one control the blast? Like direct it upwards or downwards?


Yes


----------



## racing_kitty (Oct 9, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Question can one control the blast? Like direct it upwards or downwards?


Absolutely yes.  Depends on exactly how you set it up.  I won't go into the delightful details, but it is quite possible.  Physics is a beautiful thing.


----------



## racing_kitty (Oct 9, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I'm looking forward to the naval phase of destroying and abandoning Russian equipment.
> 
> Paging @racing_kitty for blast analysis.


Haven't really had time to delve into the videos and photos out there, what with football season and keeping the beer menu updated.  I'll have a look and see if anything stands out besides "Hey Russia, it sucks to suck."  Who knows?


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 9, 2022)

racing_kitty said:


> Haven't really had time to delve into the videos and photos out there, what with football season and keeping the beer menu updated.  I'll have a look and see if anything stands out besides "Hey Russia, it sucks to suck."  Who knows?



You're the best!  I just wish they used more explosives and took the whole thing down.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 9, 2022)

Arctic Troops ruined and 80% of Russian units pulled from the Finnish / Baltic borders. All because of the war in Ukraine.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 9, 2022)




----------



## AWP (Oct 9, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Arctic Troops ruined and 80% of Russian units pulled from the Finnish / Baltic borders. All because of the war in Ukraine.



The history nerd in me found one point particularly telling. When the video talks about rebuilding the brigade, it goes through the usual litany of manpower sources and then mentions using sailors. Press-ganging sailors to fill slots in a motorized rifle brigade is some no kidding WWII stuff. Ironically, one of the campaigns where this occurred on a widescale basis was the 1942 German conquest of the Crimean peninsula.

When the Sovs start pulling stunts like this, things are bad. They are tossing bodies at the problem until they find more bodies, most of which will have minimal training. Not saying there's a tie-in to the recent draft over there, but...


----------



## Gordus (Oct 9, 2022)

AWP said:


> The history nerd in me found one point particularly telling. When the video talks about rebuilding the brigade, it goes through the usual litany of manpower sources and then mentions using sailors. *Press-ganging sailors to fill slots* in a motorized rifle brigade is some no kidding WWII stuff. Ironically, *one of the campaigns where this occurred on a widescale basis was the 1942 German conquest of the Crimean peninsula.*
> 
> When the Sovs start pulling stunts like this, things are bad. They are tossing bodies at the problem until they find more bodies, most of which will have minimal training. Not saying there's a tie-in to the recent draft over there, but...



Yeah, caught that too. To further expand on it, there even seem to be striking similarities in incompentency of leadership and inter branch rivalry. The battles for Crimea were particularily brutal for the Soviets. Not least because the people overseeing their efforts, including high political officers, who had more pull than the military, but lacked their competency, were constantly at odds with the military leadership ( similarily to how certain Rosgvardia / tiktok personalities and mercenary leaders are with the Russian military command ) on how to organise a defense. Soviet Army commanders were afraid to push back or criticize, in fear for their lives. The results were the same and even worse. Artillery and command posts were reportedly deployed too close to the frontline and for really stupid reasons, like to keep the "offensive spirit" high, trenches were allegedly ordered to not be constructed. IIRC, as a logical consequence, Kerch was so disastreous, that for example, nearly the whole Soviet-Georgian contingent which made up a large part of the Soviet troops on the peninsula, and more than a third of the tiny Republics entire contribution to the war, got wasted, in less then two weeks. Which was a demographic catastrophy for them. Things also went really badly for the Russians in Ukraine because of very poor leadership and preparation. Guess they didn't learn from history. Plus add to that all the corruption.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 10, 2022)

AWP said:


> The history nerd in me found one point particularly telling. When the video talks about rebuilding the brigade, it goes through the usual litany of manpower sources and then mentions using sailors. Press-ganging sailors to fill slots in a motorized rifle brigade is some no kidding WWII stuff. Ironically, one of the campaigns where this occurred on a widescale basis was the 1942 German conquest of the Crimean peninsula.
> 
> When the Sovs start pulling stunts like this, things are bad. They are tossing bodies at the problem until they find more bodies, most of which will have minimal training. Not saying there's a tie-in to the recent draft over there, but...





Gordus said:


> Yeah, caught that too. To further expand on it, there even seem to be striking similarities in incompentency of leadership and inter branch rivalry. The battles for Crimea were particularily brutal for the Soviets. Not least because the people overseeing their efforts, including high political officers, who had more pull than the military, but lacked their competency, were constantly at odds with the military leadership ( similarily to how certain Rosgvardia / tiktok personalities and mercenary leaders are with the Russian military command ) on how to organise a defense. Soviet Army commanders were afraid to push back or criticize, in fear for their lives. The results were the same and even worse. Artillery and command posts were reportedly deployed too close to the frontline and for really stupid reasons, like to keep the "offensive spirit" high, trenches were allegedly ordered to not be constructed. IIRC, as a logical consequence, Kerch was so disastreous, that for example, nearly the whole Soviet-Georgian contingent which made up a large part of the Soviet troops on the peninsula, and more than a third of the tiny Republics entire contribution to the war, got wasted, in less then two weeks. Which was a demographic catastrophy for them. Things also went really badly for the Russians in Ukraine because of very poor leadership and preparation. Guess they didn't learn from history. Plus add to that all the corruption.



I thought similarly, but not nearly as articulate.  I was gonna post something but compared to your posts it would have looked like a 5th grade history paper.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 10, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I thought similarly, but not nearly as articulate.  I was gonna post something but compared to your posts it would have looked like a 5th grade history paper.



Don't be so harsh to yourself. Trust me, these comments take me some time and edits. I'm not nearly as good with my English as I should be. Still make lots of mistakes. Mandatory "I really wished we had a better "love" react emoji." lol


----------



## AWP (Oct 10, 2022)

FWIW, an AMAZING book on the Crimea in WWII is Where the Iron Crosses Grow by Robert Forczyk. Kindle will set you back $9.99 and paperback 16.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 10, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579465601231507457


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579414430689165312


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

Russia has significantly increased the air strikes in Ukraine. Putin is livid over the Kerch bridge attack.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579487554990411776
The bridge and arch in the video below are in Kyiv, overlooking the Dnipro river, a really lovely spot, one of my favorite places in Kyiv. Ironically the arch (built by the Soviets), represents the friendship of the Ukrainian and Russian people.


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579486091975196673

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579485050311442435

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579473327680151553

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579463824352350208

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579408257839685632


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 10, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579465601231507457


So basically Russian JTACs in the field are either worthless or dead so Russian AF just lobbing missiles at things they see on Google maps. "Bold strategy there, Cotton."


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So basically Russian JTACs in the field are either worthless or dead so Russian AF just lobbing missiles at things they see on Google maps. "Bold strategy there, Cotton."


There is a constant look out for JTAC types and people observing places suspiciously, curfews are in place too.


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579480669696462848

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579480673995599872


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579480684011618304

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579480690999320578


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 10, 2022)

'Everyone's Drunk. No Uniforms. No Food.' Inside The Confusion Greeting Some Of Russia's Newly Mobilized Troops


----------



## Totentanz (Oct 10, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So basically Russian JTACs in the field are either worthless or dead so Russian AF just lobbing missiles at things they see on Google maps. "Bold strategy there, Cotton."



I mean, when your strategy includes hiring Syrians to teach you to make barrel bombs (because no aim, no blame)...


----------



## pardus (Oct 10, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579542116006768641


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 11, 2022)

This is relevant here and the China thread.  Canada's Chief of Defence Staff (top soldier) briefed Parliament today on the threat of China and Russia.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 12, 2022)

Russia's FSB arrests eight for Crimea Bridge blast

I find it interesting that they have this much info, so close to the incident. Also that 5 of the 8 are Russian, and that they are stating it moved through Georgia, Bulgaria, and Armenia before arriving in Crimea.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 12, 2022)

Found this interesting, pretty sure someone mentioned Russia is dependant on a rail network to move things internally and in Ukraine. Guess their ability to resupply forces in Crimea is pretty much over.


----------



## pardus (Oct 12, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580304440535433217


----------



## pardus (Oct 12, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Russia's FSB arrests eight for Crimea Bridge blast
> 
> I find it interesting that they have this much info, so close to the incident. Also that 5 of the 8 are Russian, and that they are stating it moved through Georgia, Bulgaria, and Armenia before arriving in Crimea.


That’s a hell of a round about route to follow 🤔
I’m not surprised in the slightest that 5 were Russian. All 8 of them will be lucky to ever see the light of day again.



R.Caerbannog said:


> Found this interesting, pretty sure someone mentioned Russia is dependant on a rail network to move things internally and in Ukraine. Guess their ability to resupply forces in Crimea is pretty much over.


The rail bridge hasn’t been closed, not yet anyway. That said It needs to be cut and cut soon.


----------



## pardus (Oct 12, 2022)

In the immortal words of the great prophet Homer Simpson DOH!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580291630913187840


----------



## Topkick (Oct 12, 2022)

pardus said:


> In the immortal words of the great prophet Homer Simpson DOH!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580291630913187840



Can literally see the mines in the vid...and it looks like the TC hatch is open so on the surface this looks completely self- inflicted.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 12, 2022)

pardus said:


> That’s a hell of a round about route to follow 🤔
> I’m not surprised in the slightest that 5 were Russian. All 8 of them will be lucky to ever see the light of day again.
> 
> 
> The rail bridge hasn’t been closed, not yet anyway. That said It needs to be cut and cut soon.


Shit. I really hope they're able to cut that supply line.


----------



## pardus (Oct 12, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Shit. I really hope they're able to cut that supply line.


Never say never, but without long range western weapons that will be very hard to accomplish.


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 13, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So basically Russian JTACs in the field are either worthless or dead so Russian AF just lobbing missiles at things they see on Google maps. "Bold strategy there, Cotton."



I read a report a few months ago, that at least in Kharkiv, Russia was purposefully targeting education facilities. I wouldn’t be shocked if they have moved on from that to just an all out we know nobody is going to do anything so we’ll keep bombing/rocketing/mortaring any civilian infrastructure we see fit.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 13, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> I read a report a few months ago, that at least in Kharkiv, Russia was purposefully targeting education facilities. I wouldn’t be shocked if they have moved on from that to just an all out we know nobody is going to do anything so we’ll keep bombing/rocketing/mortaring any civilian infrastructure we see fit.


From what I've been hearing they're hitting any and all civvie infrastructure, heard something about cold storage and anything realating to food being hit as well. Apparently the RUS don't have the demographics to repopulate captured areas, so they're wiping out infrastructure to make areas uninhabitable.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> Never say never, but without long range western weapons that will be very hard to accomplish.



The rail bridge is still out of commission from what I saw yesterday. The automobile bridge, well one side of it is operating with one side trying to get repaired.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 14, 2022)

Check out the comments:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580550019631185921


----------



## Gordus (Oct 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580623756934152193
Meanwhile, there are already losses among the poorly mobilized and largely untrained reservists, who are now being deployed. I want Ukraine to win, but I won't lie. I also feel sorry for those who are drafted against their will to be senselessly wasted like that. I wish they would turn around and at least refuse to serve their regime, if not fight it. Or alternatively try surrender to the Ukrainians.


----------



## AWP (Oct 14, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580623756934152193


----------



## pardus (Oct 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> The rail bridge is still out of commission from what I saw yesterday. The automobile bridge, well one side of it is operating with one side trying to get repaired.


Yeah it’s out of action until they repair the damage but unless there is some major structural damage it will be repaired soon. This is a temp pause, We need to drop a span or supports etc… and cut that rail line properly.


----------



## pardus (Oct 14, 2022)

The first ever recording of drone on drone combat?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580492869705822208


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 14, 2022)

France says Iranian drone transfers to Russia would violate U.N. nuclear deal resolution


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 14, 2022)

_so Elon is threatening to pull Star link unless the pentagon foots the bill for it. Makes me wonder what has Putin offered him?_


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 14, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> _so Elon is threatening to pull Star link unless the pentagon foots the bill for it. Makes me wonder what has Putin offered him._



Maybe he just wants the bills paid.


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 14, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Maybe he just wants the bills paid.


Most likely but given the report he supposedly talked to Putin and his peace proposal makes me wonder if Russia is in the background trying to exert pressure on Ukraine’s support. I believe those areas Russia wants have a lot of rare earth materials. Something Musk companies need


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 14, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Most likely but given the report he supposedly talked to Putin and his peace proposal makes me wonder if Russia is in the background trying to exert pressure on Ukraine’s support. I believe those areas Russia wants have a lot of rare earth materials. Something Musk companies need


If it prevents nuclear Armageddon and I get my Starlink, faster.  Break out the peace deals.   Someone needs to be talking to Putin and not further isolating him.

Do you realize the overhead on what he donated and we're approaching a year with him out of pocket?  If the US government wants to continue their proxy war, they can pay the bills.  Or Musk just shuts off their connections.


----------



## pardus (Oct 14, 2022)

I did some research while I was over there on what a thermobaric weapon does to the human body, needless to say, but it’s really bloody bad.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580904238778970113
Russian air defense protecting the motherland! 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580670725207527424


----------



## pardus (Oct 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581085105430286339


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 14, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> If it prevents nuclear Armageddon and I get my Starlink, faster.  Break out the peace deals.   Someone needs to be talking to Putin and not further isolating him.
> 
> Do you realize the overhead on what he donated and we're approaching a year with him out of pocket?  If the US government wants to continue their proxy war, they can pay the bills.  Or Musk just shuts off their connections.


According to Musk, so far it’s cost $80m on Starlink over Ukraine. Doesn’t mean that Putin didn’t sway him one way or another, but that’s a significant investment from a private company


----------



## AWP (Oct 14, 2022)

If it’s a private company then Musk can do what he wants. We may not agree with it, may actually hate it, but that’s his call. 

Can’t wait for the calls upon the government to nationalize Starlink…


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 14, 2022)

At this rate, Musk gifting Starlink to the Canuckistani people and giving Trudeau the keys; might be faster for me to get my system.


----------



## amlove21 (Oct 14, 2022)

The fact that this administration (ours) has *still* not stepped up to even negotiate a fucking peace deal here is... I don't even have a word. Fucking disgraceful. 

It's cute to watch this little proxy war play out, but the fact that people have been super happy to watch gleefully from the sideline without some clear-eyed anger about America's diplomatic missteps tells me everything I need to know. 

I can't wait to further celebrate the death of 100k+ humans over a border dispute enabled by weak leadership.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

Quite the "border dispute". 20% of yet another country, not only occupied, but in this case even annexed and it would have been far worse, if Putin wasn't ( imo ) decicively mislead or hadn't misjudged Ukrainian and Western resolve. Remember, Russia made an opportunistic, if unsuccessful dash attempt to take Kyiv, topple the government and possibly occupy and divide, if not annex the whole of Ukraine. Even if we somehow whitewashed what happened thus far ( and we can't because it also includes massacres ) since fortunately, the worst case scenario was prevented, they are still trying to completely strip Ukraine their access to the Black Sea and industrial heartland. Let's also not forget about Crimea.
I mean, I get where you're coming from. But what fair deal could possibly be struck in the current political environment ? We are dealing with a fascist leader and nuclear power, who questioned the existence of whole countries and peoples on national broadcast. Whose rhetoric has been for many years, based around a "Greater Russia", consisting of ex Soviet enclaves and buffers, which now happen to comprise nations, that regained their independence from two tyrannic Russian entities, succeeded by another in 1991. Coupled with a society that since has been subjected to and manipulated by endless "holy Russia" vs the "satanic gay West" and whatnot other pseudo-religeous hate-mongering.
It's not like the West wasn't still talking to them. But at this point, Putin and Russia are refusing any compromise, that doesn't bend over and violate their victim. The other side may also think and act in influence spheres and exploitation, but that so called West is not the main reason why most of those countries chose to strife towards the Western world or at least be under NATO protection. It's Russia being Russia. They always had and still have their own twisted vision of border constellations and assertive, dominance hinged "diplomacy" and trade. We are just very lucky ( or perhaps very unlucky ), that Russia is governed by heavy corruption and in a relatively weak state, instead of becoming a genuine super power after the breakup, with lot more to offer and allies than the West.
We won't ever be able to strike fair deals with them under such circumstances. Not when they refuse to adjust their mindset and political goals to at least respect the basic souvereignity and rights of others. Who have every right to chose what they are alligned with, even if some Western actors thought their interests were inconsequential to their own or "the greater picture", and I get that. But once again, we are currently dealing with an entity, who makes impossible demands and is willing to use force when threats won't work. It's like trying to be the "nice guy" by striking compromising deals with a home invading bully, over the heads of the victims, in breach of existing laws. We can argue all day the about the Wests complicitness in it. But that's the situation we are in right now.


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## RackMaster (Oct 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Quite the "border dispute". 20% of yet another country, not only occupied, but in this case even annexed and it would have been far worse, if Putin wasn't ( imo ) decicively mislead or hadn't misjudged Ukrainian and Western resolve. Remember, Russia made an opportunistic, if unsuccessful dash attempt to take Kyiv, topple the government and possibly occupy and divide, if not annex the whole of Ukraine. Even if we somehow whitewashed what happened thus far ( and we can't because it also includes massacres ) since fortunately, the worst case scenario was prevented, they are still trying to completely strip Ukraine their access to the Black Sea and industrial heartland. Let's also not forget about Crimea.
> I mean, I get where you're coming from. But what fair deal could possibly be struck in the current political environment ? We are dealing with a fascist leader and nuclear power, who questioned the existence of whole countries and peoples on national broadcast. Whose rhetoric has been for many years, based around a "Greater Russia", consisting of ex Soviet enclaves and buffers, which now happen to comprise nations, that regained their independence from two tyrannic Russian entities, succeeded by another in 1991. Coupled with a society that since has been subjected to and manipulated by endless "holy Russia" vs the "satanic gay West" and whatnot other pseudo-religeous hate-mongering.
> It's not like the West wasn't still talking to them. But at this point, Putin and Russia are refusing any compromise, that doesn't bend over and violate their victim. The other side may also think and act in influence spheres and exploitation, but that so called West is not the main reason why most of those countries chose to strife towards the Western world or at least be under NATO protection. It's Russia being Russia. They always had and still have their own twisted vision of border constellations and assertive, dominance hinged "diplomacy" and trade. We are just very lucky ( or perhaps very unlucky ), that Russia is governed by heavy corruption and in a relatively weak state, instead of becoming a genuine super power after the breakup, with lot more to offer and allies than the West.
> We won't ever be able to strike fair deals with them under such circumstances. Not when they refuse to adjust their mindset and political goals to at least respect the basic souvereignity and rights of others. Who have every right to chose what they are alligned with, even if some Western actors thought their interests were inconsequential to their own or "the greater picture", and I get that. But once again, we are currently dealing with an entity, who makes impossible demands and is willing to use force when threats won't work. It's like trying to be the "nice guy" by striking compromising deals with a home invading bully, over the heads of the victims, in breach of existing laws. We can argue all day the about the Wests complicitness in it. But that's the situation we are in right now.



Define fair.  Peace deals are never black and white. Especially when dealing with nuclear powers.  There are no winners in this.  And we're not going to overthrow Putin, that's a pipe dream.  

The victims in this are the people of Ukraine, on both sides of this conflict. This, just like so many other conflicts in modern history, is the result of randomly drawing borders and ignoring ethnic separations.  Or regime changes because leaders in, say America; know better than the people that live there.  
Just split the country up again, East/West and call it a day.  Build a new wall or DMZ and get on with the cold war, the Left so desperately wants. From initiating a civil war through regime change, under Obama, to Hillary promising war with Russia if elected and now full on proxy war.  Because Putin invading, was not worried about the US that is led by an old man that needs to be in a dementia ward of some senior home.  Or Europe that is Russia's Bitch.


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## AWP (Oct 15, 2022)

We excused ourselves from any negotiating position/ power with the first shipment of arms to the Ukraine. Any mediation will have to be led by a “non-belligerent” in this war. That rules out most of the West.


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## R.Caerbannog (Oct 15, 2022)

Yeah... Russia needs to die. They've massacred fuckloads of civvies, destroyed the agricultural capacity for the worlds 5th largest grain exporter, and their fertilizer & energy shenanigans are going to cause hundreds of millions to die. (Scariest guess I've seen is 1.5 billion people, yes billion with a B.)

Not to mention the secondary effects of famine and everything else that will lead to numerous brushfire wars and global instability.

Fuck em.


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## RackMaster (Oct 15, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> Yeah... Russia needs to die. They've massacred fuckloads of civvies, destroyed the agricultural capacity for the worlds 5th largest grain exporter, and their fertilizer & energy shenanigans are going to cause hundreds of millions to die. (Scariest guess I've seen is 1.5 billion people, yes billion with a B.)
> 
> Not to mention the secondary effects of famine and everything else that will lead to numerous brushfire wars and global instability.
> 
> Fuck em.



While we're at it, let's bomb Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, China and everyone else not on the Western Xmas card list.  This isn't Libya or Iraq.  In this game of nuclear chicken, people in Europe and North America; are going to die.

Find someone to negotiate, both lose, and both sides build up on the new border.  Then we deal with accountability and the consequences.  There's no good side to pushing further conflict.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> Define fair.  Peace deals are never black and white. Especially when dealing with nuclear powers.  There are no winners in this.  And we're not going to overthrow Putin, that's a pipe dream.
> 
> The victims in this are the people of Ukraine, on both sides of this conflict. This, just like so many other conflicts in modern history, is the result of randomly drawing borders and ignoring ethnic separations.  Or regime changes because leaders in, say America; know better than the people that live there.
> Just split the country up again, East/West and call it a day.  Build a new wall or DMZ and get on with the cold war, the Left so desperately wants. From initiating a civil war through regime change, under Obama, to Hillary promising war with Russia if elected and now full on proxy war.  Because Putin invading, was not worried about the US that is led by an old man that needs to be in a dementia ward of some senior home.  Or Europe that is Russia's Bitch.



For example, if both sides made concessions, agreed to something like the 1997 treaty, that guaranteed Russia and Ukraine would not attack eachother, use their territories to harm their respective security interests, and instead respect their borders and territorial integrity. Sounds mighty fair to me.
But this is nigh impossible now. Ukraine won't accept annexation of its territories and their choice of allies be dictated by anyone but themselves. While Russia will most likely not accept voluntarily ceding the occupied territories back to Ukraine ( especialy after annexing them ) and Ukraine becoming part of NATO. That's why I'm saying, like what compromise could possibly be made in the current environment, that anyone would agree to or consider fair.
I will also maintain, that peace with their neighbours, was never in Putins interest. NATO was not present in Ukraine, to justify their attack in 2014. Ukrainian territory was not used to harm Russian security interests. They seized Crimea, purely in fear of eventualy losing their leased naval base to a pro-Western Ukraine, and with that, also eliminated any prospect of NATO membership. Why not go a step further, send terrorists like Girkin to instigate a war of secession in as many regions as possible, while at it. So Putin can permanently destabilize the country and annex further lands to accomodate his "Greater Russia" plans.

I agree, but if we went *that* deep, why should only Ukraine be split ? The same would apply to Russia then, where they bomb people for even suggesting that. North Caucaus and other regions. Both countries are full with ethnic minorities, or every other country. Only that would be fair.
The problem is this: If peaceful referenda took place, without Russia invading, on top of instigating, organising and militarily supporting secessionism in Ukraine, then I'd be fine with the idea. But exactly that forceful bs is happening ( again ... since the Bolsheviks started it in the 1920s and before them the Russian Empire ) and we are thrown back to what you pointed out. Interfering powers, making such events anything but legitimate and morally justifiable.
There is complicity in Western involvment, sure. Europe wanted Ukraine to become part of their trade empire, instead of it remaining a permanent economic leverage for Russia and military buffer. Especialy before Putin could install a puppet. However, Western involvement or not, it were the Ukrainian people who made that decision, after Yanukovich ignored their will and even parliament votes, and Russia is the one who invaded with its military, inciting and organising a rebellion. Behaving like Russia does, because that's how Russia behaves and has been for centuries. They've been longer at that game than the modern Americas. From our POV, you could see this coming from miles away, with or without Western interference. We even warned them repeatedly after 2008.


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## AWP (Oct 15, 2022)

This might be an unpopular opinion and further stoke the thread drift, but we invaded the wrong country in 2003. Invading Iran might have had more short term pain in casualties, but long term gains elsewhere, including Russia. We really screwed the pooch there and I think it is one of many things that emboldened Putin and China.

Regardless...

The thing is with Russia, we aren't invading, no one's invading. Regime change will not only have to occur internally, but (more unpopular opinions) without a shred of US support. Russians are paranoid with a fantastic "they hate us because they ain't us so they all want to kill us" conspiracy hive mind. Natural paranoia was amped up to a factor of a gazillion under the Communists and we're kind of stupid if we think that doesn't persist. Any effort to topple Putin is almost doomed to fail because we can't be seen to support that revolt. At all. Not even covertly because our dumbasses can't keep our collective mouths shut. Leaks will happen, so we have to stay out of any internal revolt in Russia.

Plan B is you keep Pootie in check, he dies, and then you play 3D, 9D, deez nuts or whatever chess with his successor. We wash, rinse, repeat until the whole rotten affair topples...but we still have the nuclear question.

I often comment that I miss the Cold War, but that's not a joke or tongue-in-cheek commentary. I miss the Cold War because at least we could rely on MAD to keep the Soviets in check (among many other reasons to miss the Cold War). Russia isn't a monolithic state anymore as much as it is a dictatorship with minimal checks and balances.

Hell, I'm glad we have Biden instead of Harris. His minders can at least keep him on track like a go-cart at an amusement park. Minus that brain dead affirmative action hire press secretary (someone needs to say it because she didn't get that job on talent), we're probably getting the best we can out of the moment. Harris, she's so clueless, so arrogant, and so mouthy there is no telling where she would have us right now.

It is a liquid shit show, but it could be so much worse.


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## amlove21 (Oct 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> ...
> I mean, I get where you're coming from. But what fair deal could possibly be struck in the current political environment ? ...


Snipped because hand wringing isn't useful ATT. I didn't say there is a fair deal. And I don't give two shits about the current political environment. Lack of diplomatic strength and leadership is what opened the door for Putin in the first place ("Well, I mean, if it's like a small incursion, maybe we won't do anything"). The "fairness" of the deal doesn't matter. America bringing people to the table does. 


AWP said:


> We excused ourselves from any negotiating position/ power with the first shipment of arms to the Ukraine. Any mediation will have to be led by a “non-belligerent” in this war. That rules out most of the West.


Disagree here. I appreciate the cynism, for sure, and I understand the feeling. Pivoting to engage in diplomacy is a non-kinetic effect we could garner to position ourselves in a better spot. We've armed shit tons of countries and then negotiated peace- President Trump did it for four years in the middle east and we had unprecedented peace. 


AWP said:


> It is a liquid shit show, but it could be so much worse.


Agree. And it will be unless someone does something. That someone should be us, if we just had the balls to lead. 

Great discussion all around, ladies and gents. Except you, rabbit kid. Your ability to ruin a conversation with your drivel is unmatched.


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## Devildoc (Oct 15, 2022)

Isn't a 'compromise' just a decision that neither side likes?  Seems reasonable to me.

It looks like neither side are interested. And I question every day if we should be backing this horse as hard as we are with $ we don't have and weapons we need.


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## Devildoc (Oct 15, 2022)

And there's this:


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

Crimea ain't Russian. Outside of a few things that occurred like battles that involved the British. Crimea went from s backwater with no infrastructure to a vacation metropolis after Kruschev "gave" it to Ukraine.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Snipped because hand wringing isn't useful ATT. I didn't say there is a fair deal. And I don't give two shits about the current political environment. *Lack of diplomatic strength and leadership is what opened the door for Putin in the first place* *("Well, I mean, if it's like a small incursion, maybe we won't do anything")*. The "fairness" of the deal doesn't matter. *America bringing people to the table does.*



Okay and I agree. I also want diplomacy to solve this war as quickly as possible to prevent further suffering. I don't wish the Ukrainians to be forced giving up their territory and homes, while Russia gets away with it. Ultimately though, whatever terms the Ukrainian people accept or whatever decision they make, regardless of wheter we like it or not, it will be their choice and we have to respect that. If they are happy with losing Crimea and Donbas, than that's simply how it is. But if on the other hand, no compromise can be found, even if America took the strong leading role in negotiations, than ( at least imo ) they deserve our contineous support. At least as long as we can bear.


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## AWP (Oct 15, 2022)

You know what would end this war?

A big space rock.


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## Cookie_ (Oct 15, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Lack of diplomatic strength and leadership is what opened the door for Putin in the first place ("Well, I mean, if it's like a small incursion, maybe we won't do anything").



Fully agree with this take. Our political Chess with Russia over the past decade has basically been a lot of talk and finger wagging, but not really establishing a "line" for taking them to task. 

The annexation of Crimea, the Wagner Group (which is basically a Russian NGO anyways) attacking US troops, etc; our Political leaders have either been weak, ineffective, or just uninterested at trying to reel this shit in diplomatically.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Crimea ain't Russian. Outside of a few things that occurred like battles that involved the British. Crimea went from s backwater with no infrastructure to a vacation metropolis after Kruschev "gave" it to Ukraine.



Started off Greek and remained so for most of its history, even when other Europeans settled it, until the Tatars (Mongols) invaded. Russians really had no business there, culturally. Their Catherine beat the Tatar population into submission and dumped a Russian population onto the peninsula to legitimize their annexation.


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## pardus (Oct 15, 2022)

Train moving across the bridge post bombing. What the capacity is I have no idea, but as I’d said before this is a temporary  problem for the Russians that we need to make permanent. 
The Russians have apparently said that the bridge repairs will be complete by July 2023



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580877646241882114


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## DA SWO (Oct 15, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> _so Elon is threatening to pull Star link unless the pentagon foots the bill for it. Makes me wonder what has Putin offered him?_


The guy has given millions to support the Ukraine.  Same guy offered a plausible peace proposal and was told to go fuck himself by someone who may or may not be part of the Ukrainian government (Telling your sugar daddy to go fuck themselves rarely ends well),  at the same time he is spending 44?46? Billion to buy twitter and needs capitol for his other businesses.  
We (or NATO) can divert some of the billions being spent to offset his costs.


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> The guy has given millions to support the Ukraine.  Same guy offered a plausible peace proposal and was told to go fuck himself by someone who may or may not be part of the Ukrainian government (Telling your sugar daddy to go fuck themselves rarely ends well),  at the same time he is spending 44?46? Billion to buy twitter and needs capitol for his other businesses.
> We (or NATO) can divert some of the billions being spent to offset his costs.


That was a shitty proposal.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581345747777179651


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581345747777179651


At the end of the day, he has put his money where his mouth is and our government is trending to be as corrupt/incompetent as it was under Grant. If it hits the Harding Scale it would be nice if someone led an Army and cross the Potomac.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

Don't agree with some of the things he says. But his heart seems to be in the right place.


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## DasBoot (Oct 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> You know what would end this war?
> 
> A big space rock.


Arizona Bay is lovely this time of year.


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## TLDR20 (Oct 15, 2022)

DasBoot said:


> Arizona Bay is lovely this time of year.



Learn to swim


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## DA SWO (Oct 15, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> That was a shitty proposal.


Go fuck yourself was still an ill advised response from that one individual.


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## Gordus (Oct 15, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Go fuck yourself was still an ill advised response from that one individual.



Yeah. Melnyk has quite the temper for a diplomat. Maybe they should have pulled him aside at some point. He reportedly left Germany today and is to become deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine …


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Go fuck yourself was still an ill advised response from that one individual.



How so? The Russians are committing genocide in a variety of ways. When that's who your enemy is, surrendering your industrial heartland and millions of acres of your farm land would be ill advised.  Those proposed referenda would be an economic death sentence (let's not act like there wouldn't be Russian coercion as no one would be removing those BTGs  ahead of the voting in those oblasts).  But hey, we're all allowed our opinions.


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## Devildoc (Oct 15, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> How so? The Russians are committing genocide in a variety of ways. When that's who your enemy is, surrendering your industrial heartland and millions of acres of your farm land would be ill advised.  Those proposed referenda would be an economic death sentence (let's not act like there wouldn't be Russian coercion as no one would be removing those BTGs  ahead of the voting in those oblasts).  But hey, we're all allowed our opinions.



Because Elon was a gift horse they were looking in the mouth.  If I was Musk I'd definitely take my starlink and go home.


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## R.Caerbannog (Oct 15, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> While we're at it, let's bomb Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, China and everyone else not on the Western Xmas card list.  This isn't Libya or Iraq.  In this game of nuclear chicken, people in Europe and North America; are going to die.
> 
> Find someone to negotiate, both lose, and both sides build up on the new border.  Then we deal with accountability and the consequences.  There's no good side to pushing further conflict.


Why waste the ordinance? We don't need to bomb those countries, situation depending. The upcoming food, fertilizer, and energy shortages are going to kill more of their people, via unrest, disease, and starvation, than any bomb.

All of this is baked in at this point. Any "peace deal", to fix all this, would effectively lead to the dissolution of the Russian state. Musk and the others want appeasement, but there really is no point. The damage has been done worldwide and there is no way to go back in time to sow fields, replenish soils, and produce the necessary inputs, to run a global agricultural system.

Hence, fuck em.


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Because Elon was a gift horse they were looking in the mouth.  If I was Musk I'd definitely take my starlink and go home.


Sure, and then you'd become public enemy number one and one thing that narcissist loves is popularity.  But he's not like Trump in how much Trump loves people to be negative.  Elon likes to be loved. Hell, if did that State might deport him, Blinken is that incompetent.


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## Jaknight (Oct 15, 2022)

I think no peace deal is possible for right now both have sides have put too much on the line.


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> I think no peace deal is possible for right now both have sides have put too much on the line.


There can be no peace. 

How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians

If a country invaded us and forceably removed thousands of Children we'd have gone to nukes already.  Problem for Ukraine is they gave up their nukes.


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## pardus (Oct 15, 2022)

People calling for a "peace" deal have their heads in the clouds, fools at the very least. There is no "peace deal" to be made with Putin, I thought we collectively agreed in 1939 that appeasement is only for fools and cowards?
Putin is the Hitler of our time, people need to wake the fuck up and realize that. He is torturing, raping and murdering people every single day he is sitting on Ukrainian territory. He needs to agree to leave or he needs to driven out, there is no compromise with that, how could there be? You're going to sacrifice tens/hundreds of thousands of people to torture and death for the foreseeable future so we can say we have "peace"? fuck right off. Ben Franklin supposedly said "Those willing to trade freedom for security, deserve neither" (or words to that effect), that lesson needs to be remembered before it needs to relearned. Peace is going to be won, not negotiated by appeasement in Ukraine. What happens to Russia is up to Russia, when they want a change in leadership, they'll do it, if they don't they will continue to suffer, that's not our decision to make. If the west wasn't so fucking corrupt/money hungry, we would've (and still should BTW) enforce a total sanction on Russia, cut them off 100%, that would really hurt them and is much more likely to make them come to their senses and end their invasion/occupation of Ukraine.

I'm sick of hearing the nonsense too, of Crimea and Donbas want to join Ukraine, that is Russian propaganda and I'm really surprised that some smart people have been duped into following the Russian line. *Every* Oblast in Ukraine voted to become an independent country after the USSR collapsed, that is even after the commies ethnically cleansed Crimea and replaced those unfortunates with ethnic Russians, which is what Russia does when it wants to permanently take over an area/country, and that is exactly what they have done in the occupied territories, which is why they terrorize the remaining people to follow the party line, you all saw the "election" results right? Saddam election numbers if I've ever seen them.

It hurts my fucking head to even have to write this shit, it should be common sense to every freedom loving person in the world. I have no faith in humanity. If we can't do the right thing here for just the cost of some coin (the Ukrainians are happy to supply the blood) then we don't deserve freedom, in the words of Dr Stranglelove, "Stop worrying and learn to love the bomb", because that's all we'll deserve.


Gordus said:


> Yeah. Melnyk has quite the temper for a diplomat. Maybe they should have pulled him aside at some point. He reportedly left Germany today and is to become deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine …


That was ill advised, very undiplomatic and unwise IMHO.
Whether Musk is throwing his dummy over the response he got from Ukraine etc... or not, he has done an absolutely wonderful thing for Ukraine in supplying Starlink, and honestly at this point (or before) the west should be paying for it, they're already supplying the weapons so step up and supply the comms.


ThunderHorse said:


> There can be no peace.
> 
> How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians
> 
> If a country invaded us and forceably removed thousands of Children we'd have gone to nukes already.  Problem for Ukraine is they gave up their nukes.


They gave up their nukes with a promise from Russia and the USA (maybe Europe to?) to not fuck with them, and help if someone did. We fucked Ukraine over. Shame on us.
Can someone explain to me why the UN hasn't gone all Korea 1950 and Kuwait 1991 on Russia? What's the difference? Because we're all just bitches now? Because it sure seems like it.


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## Jaknight (Oct 15, 2022)

In regards to Elon while I think his recent move is a bit shady I do believe he has provided a great service and should be paid.  We are handing billlions what’s a few more tens of millions?


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> They gave up their nukes with a promise from Russia and the USA (maybe Europe to?) to not fuck with them, and help if someone did. We fucked Ukraine over. Shame on us.
> *Can someone explain to me why the UN hasn't gone all Korea 1950 and Kuwait 1991 on Russia*? What's the difference? Because we're all just bitches now? Because it sure seems like it.


Because they have a veto. They've actually vetoed several SC resolutions regarding this now. In 1950 they were boycotting because the UN recognized ROC as the permanent seat and not the PRC...which allowed the SC to unanimously pass the resolution for a Korean peace keeping mission.


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## pardus (Oct 15, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Because they have a veto. They've actually vetoed several SC resolutions regarding this now. In 1950 they were boycotting because the UN recognized ROC as the permanent seat and not the PRC...which allowed the SC to unanimously pass the resolution for a Korean peace keeping mission.


I didn't know about the Soviet boycott in 1950, thank you.


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## Devildoc (Oct 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> People calling for a "peace" deal have their heads in the clouds, fools at the very least. There is no "peace deal" to be made with Putin, I thought we collectively agreed in 1939 that appeasement is only for fools and cowards?
> Putin is the Hitler of our time, people need to wake the fuck up and realize that. He is torturing, raping and murdering people every single day he is sitting on Ukrainian territory. He needs to agree to leave or he needs to driven out, there is no compromise with that, how could there be? You're going to sacrifice tens/hundreds of thousands of people to torture and death for the foreseeable future so we can say we have "peace"? fuck right off. Ben Franklin supposedly said "Those willing to trade freedom for security, deserve neither" (or words to that effect), that lesson needs to be remembered before it needs to relearned. Peace is going to be won, not negotiated by appeasement in Ukraine. What happens to Russia is up to Russia, when they want a change in leadership, they'll do it, if they don't they will continue to suffer, that's not our decision to make. If the west wasn't so fucking corrupt/money hungry, we would've (and still should BTW) enforce a total sanction on Russia, cut them off 100%, that would really hurt them and is much more likely to make them come to their senses and end their invasion/occupation of Ukraine.
> 
> I'm sick of hearing the nonsense too, of Crimea and Donbas want to join Ukraine, that is Russian propaganda and I'm really surprised that some smart people have been duped into following the Russian line. *Every* Oblast in Ukraine voted to become an independent country after the USSR collapsed, that is even after the commies ethnically cleansed Crimea and replaced those unfortunates with ethnic Russians, which is what Russia does when it wants to permanently take over an area/country, and that is exactly what they have done in the occupied territories, which is why they terrorize the remaining people to follow the party line, you all saw the "election" results right? Saddam election numbers if I've ever seen them.
> ...



You have compelling points.  But at what price is our coin, when it is affecting our economy and bottom dollar here and now?

Your Ben Franklin quote is true, but the backside is none of our the forefathers believed in "entangling alliances".  

You need to get past the point that people who don't want us involved are pro-Putin, or even illogically worse, Neville Chamberlain. 

I am pro-Uke and anti-Putin, but I'm also 100% American before either.  Supplying $ and weapons is not an infinite affair, and it shouldn't be.  What I DON'T know is what that cutoff or end-point looks like.


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## DA SWO (Oct 16, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> How so? The Russians are committing genocide in a variety of ways. When that's who your enemy is, surrendering your industrial heartland and millions of acres of your farm land would be ill advised.  Those proposed referenda would be an economic death sentence (let's not act like there wouldn't be Russian coercion as no one would be removing those BTGs  ahead of the voting in those oblasts).  But hey, we're all allowed our opinions.


This was written by someone else on another page I frequent:

"I'll wade in on the Starlink shit. Apart from Musk today tweeting fuckit , we'll just keep providing it for free. (the service, i know, some 3/4 of the dishes were paid for by donations). US DOD has paid billions to other defense contractors for their wares, not a single 1 has donated jack shit for free. So, its an absurd bitch fest of signal vs noise at its worst. As to the minutiae, how important, who's got the bigger artillery, the best tanks... This is all childish levels of discussion. Put simply, ask any historian what 1 piece of tech would change the outcome of every single battle fought pre 1900, from Canae to Trafalgar to Gettysburg, and they'll all say the same thing. Bunch of walkie talkies will do it. On Go + 1 hour, Russia turned off every single Ukrainian walkie talkie [satcomms, local internet, cellphones] (vicariously half the sat comms across Europe and US, everyone forgets this), on go + 1 day, Ukraine asked Musk can we have walkie talkies, he said yes. By go + day 5 they started to stream in. For the first 2 weeks of the war, Russia conquered 1/4 of Ukraine. Once C&C was re-established that all stopped, and has been a steady reversal since. It's rare that you can point at a single point of change, but this is one of those. Having Ukrainian officials tweeting Musk can fuck off, is probably as big a threat to the war effort as Putin rattling nukes at them. The level of cognitive dissonance on display by people who should know better is astonishing."


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 16, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> This was written by someone else on another page I frequent:
> 
> "I'll wade in on the Starlink shit. Apart from Musk today tweeting fuckit , we'll just keep providing it for free. (the service, i know, some 3/4 of the dishes were paid for by donations). US DOD has paid billions to other defense contractors for their wares, not a single 1 has donated jack shit for free. So, its an absurd bitch fest of signal vs noise at its worst. As to the minutiae, how important, who's got the bigger artillery, the best tanks... This is all childish levels of discussion. Put simply, ask any historian what 1 piece of tech would change the outcome of every single battle fought pre 1900, from Canae to Trafalgar to Gettysburg, and they'll all say the same thing. Bunch of walkie talkies will do it. On Go + 1 hour, Russia turned off every single Ukrainian walkie talkie [satcomms, local internet, cellphones] (vicariously half the sat comms across Europe and US, everyone forgets this), on go + 1 day, Ukraine asked Musk can we have walkie talkies, he said yes. By go + day 5 they started to stream in. For the first 2 weeks of the war, Russia conquered 1/4 of Ukraine. Once C&C was re-established that all stopped, and has been a steady reversal since. It's rare that you can point at a single point of change, but this is one of those. Having Ukrainian officials tweeting Musk can fuck off, is probably as big a threat to the war effort as Putin rattling nukes at them. The level of cognitive dissonance on display by people who should know better is astonishing."


I agree their telling of Musk to fuck off was idiotic but I still think his peace proposal was ridiculous and their response should have been handled better than that


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> You have compelling points.  But at what price is our coin, when it is affecting our economy and bottom dollar here and now?
> 
> Your Ben Franklin quote is true, but the backside is none of our the forefathers believed in "entangling alliances".
> 
> ...


To your first point, are you serious? The current administration bleed this country dry in a matter of days with insane "climate change" policies, inflation, a dependence on foreign and terrorist lead countries with oil that we were INDEPENDENT of under the last administration, any talk of loss of money is worse than a fucking joke now IMO. We could pour a trillion dollars into Ukraine now and it would be meaningless compared to the insane/traitorous policies of our own politicians.

Second point, do you think we live in an isolationist void? That is what cost us things like WWII and 911. The world is connected now, that can't be avoided. Thank you IBMs.

I think people who don't want us involved are ignorant fools who should sit on their lawnchairs and STFU, and NO I won't get past that because I'm not prepared to see a modern Hitler destroy a civilization when I can do something about it. That includes you and your family, if you think you're different to Ukrainians then...

Your third point is nonsensical at best. Wishywashy nonsense, pick a side, make a stand and be a man. Fascism, totalitarian murderous regimes are bad, we kinda worked that out a while ago. Our money is meaningless, pour it on, Ukraine is supplying the blood and for a few bucks you are defeating your enemy, fuck man, be grateful!
The end point? Seriously? Russia is out of Ukraine. Fuck me, why I do I keep needing to say such simple shit!?


----------



## Gordus (Oct 16, 2022)

pardus said:


> People calling for a "peace" deal have their heads in the clouds, fools at the very least. There is no "peace deal" to be made with Putin, I thought we collectively agreed in 1939 that appeasement is only for fools and cowards?
> Putin is the Hitler of our time, people need to wake the fuck up and realize that. He is torturing, raping and murdering people every single day he is sitting on Ukrainian territory. He needs to agree to leave or he needs to driven out, there is no compromise with that, how could there be? You're going to sacrifice tens/hundreds of thousands of people to torture and death for the foreseeable future so we can say we have "peace"? fuck right off. Ben Franklin supposedly said "Those willing to trade freedom for security, deserve neither" (or words to that effect), that lesson needs to be remembered before it needs to relearned. Peace is going to be won, not negotiated by appeasement in Ukraine. What happens to Russia is up to Russia, when they want a change in leadership, they'll do it, if they don't they will continue to suffer, that's not our decision to make. If the west wasn't so fucking corrupt/money hungry, we would've (and still should BTW) enforce a total sanction on Russia, cut them off 100%, that would really hurt them and is much more likely to make them come to their senses and end their invasion/occupation of Ukraine.
> 
> I'm sick of hearing the nonsense too, of Crimea and Donbas want to join Ukraine, that is Russian propaganda and I'm really surprised that some smart people have been duped into following the Russian line. *Every* Oblast in Ukraine voted to become an independent country after the USSR collapsed, that is even after the commies ethnically cleansed Crimea and replaced those unfortunates with ethnic Russians, which is what Russia does when it wants to permanently take over an area/country, and that is exactly what they have done in the occupied territories, which is why they terrorize the remaining people to follow the party line, you all saw the "election" results right? Saddam election numbers if I've ever seen them.
> ...



Agree. With the whole statement. I’ll only add, that ppl shouldn’t be mistaken. If Ukraine permanently loses those territories, regardless of whether by raw force or brokered peace deal, Russia will come out of this as clear victor and be further emboldened.
It really can't be downplayed. Ukraine will not only permanently lose Crimea ( + offshore resources ) and its Black Sea ports ( except for maybe Odessa ), the entire coastline, but also its industrial heartland. That is a catastrophe, from which they won’t recover any time soon, or maybe ever. Both sides are willing to sacrifice thousands of people. The difference is, Russia is just trying to sate its kleptomania, while Ukraine is fighting for its dear life and those territories are their vital organs. The Interntional Community already screwed up big time allowing the nonchalant Crimea grab. Now this. We do that and he’ll repeat the exact same thing 10, maybe 5 years later in the Baltics or South Caucasus, and he won't give a single damn about NATO, and quite frankly he will probably be right.


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Agree. With the whole statement. I’ll only add, that ppl shouldn’t be mistaken. If Ukraine permanently loses those territories, regardless of whether by raw force or brokered peace deal, Russia will come out of this as clear victor and be further emboldened.
> It really can't be downplayed. Ukraine will not only permanently lose Crimea ( + offshore resources ) and its Black Sea ports ( except for maybe Odessa ), the entire coastline, but also its industrial heartland. That is a catastrophe, from which they won’t recover any time soon, or maybe ever. Both sides are willing to sacrifice thousands of people. The difference is, Russia is just trying to sate its kleptomania, while Ukraine is fighting for its dear life and those territories are their vital organs. The Interntional Community already screwed up big time allowing the nonchalant Crimea grab. Now this. We do that and he’ll repeat the exact same thing 10, maybe 5 years later in the Baltics or South Caucasus, and he won't give a single damn about NATO, and quite frankly he will probably be right.


Yup. Western cuckolds are begging for that exact scenario. What makes me laugh is that rightwing Americans are sucking Putin's cock as cockholds because they are just against the US democrat party. When in fact, they are are traitors. I hate conservatives as much as I hate antifa cunts, you all need to die, and we all need to get back to a moderate point of view.  That's the only way that we will win/be normal.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 16, 2022)

pardus said:


> To your first point, are you serious? The current administration bleed this country dry in a matter of days with insane "climate change" policies, inflation, a dependence on foreign and terrorist lead countries with oil that we were INDEPENDENT of under the last administration, any talk of loss of money is worse than a fucking joke now IMO. We could pour a trillion dollars into Ukraine now and it would be meaningless compared to the insane/traitorous policies of our own politicians.
> 
> Second point, do you think we live in an isolationist void? That is what cost us things like WWII and 911. The world is connected now, that can't be avoided. Thank you IBMs.
> 
> ...



Actually I will respond. I wasn't but I will.

To your first paragraph, the two wrongs make a right argument will never win.  Just because our government foolishly, maliciously, and childishly spends money like a drunken sailor doesn't mean it needs to continue.

For your second paragraph, World War I got us in the World War II, and you should know better about bringing up 911, especially that goat rope of Iraq and how we left things in Afghanistan.  My point in bringing up your quote with Ben Franklin was in relation to what our early American leadership thought about getting involved in wars overseas and in entangling alliances.

Okay, I won't be wishy-washy. But a timetable and a budget on this thing and call it done. The US can tell all the other European countries that point they can shoulder the responsibility because we're going to be out.  

Lastly, don't judge me. Just don't. You don't know me well enough to decide who I am or what I think.  If you want to judge my ideological values or my stand as a patriot in the past 54 years of my life based on what I think about Ukraine, you do so to your very significant discredit.

I appreciate your posts and your insight. Be well, be safe.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> You have compelling points.  But at what price is our coin, when it is affecting our economy and bottom dollar here and now?
> 
> Your Ben Franklin quote is true, but the backside is none of our the forefathers believed in "entangling alliances".
> 
> ...


This isn't affecting our economy in a bad way at all. If anything delivering military aid means more contracts for American companies to supply/re-supply those arms and material. 

We just passed some bullshit climate change bill, not a full green new deal thing  but this will have far worse effects on our economy than aid to Ukraine.

Since January 2021 we have only authorized 18.5B in aid to Ukraine. So really not much when you compare it to Afghanistan and Iraq. Really a minuscule amount that is going to people who actually intend on defending their country and their people.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 16, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> This isn't affecting our economy in a bad way at all. If anything delivering military aid means more contracts for American companies to supply/re-supply those arms and material.
> 
> We just passed some bullshit climate change bill, not a full green new deal thing  but this will have far worse effects on our economy than aid to Ukraine.
> 
> Since January 2021 we have only authorized 18.5B in aid to Ukraine. So really not much when you compare it to Afghanistan and Iraq. Really a minuscule amount that is going to people who actually intend on defending their country and their people.



See my previous posts, like most of them. I am pro-Ukraine, and want them to win, however that looks like. I do not like Putin.

All I am saying is for the love of anything can we have some checks and balances on this and not turn it into another 20-year effort I think Afghanistan?  

But I also say as a fiscal conservative that you cannot say this is not hurting the economy in some way when we are running head down into a recession.


----------



## TLDR20 (Oct 16, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> This was written by someone else on another page I frequent:
> 
> "I'll wade in on the Starlink shit. Apart from Musk today tweeting fuckit , we'll just keep providing it for free. (the service, i know, some 3/4 of the dishes were paid for by donations). US DOD has paid billions to other defense contractors for their wares, not a single 1 has donated jack shit for free. So, its an absurd bitch fest of signal vs noise at its worst. As to the minutiae, how important, who's got the bigger artillery, the best tanks... This is all childish levels of discussion. Put simply, ask any historian what 1 piece of tech would change the outcome of every single battle fought pre 1900, from Canae to Trafalgar to Gettysburg, and they'll all say the same thing. Bunch of walkie talkies will do it. On Go + 1 hour, Russia turned off every single Ukrainian walkie talkie [satcomms, local internet, cellphones] (vicariously half the sat comms across Europe and US, everyone forgets this), on go + 1 day, Ukraine asked Musk can we have walkie talkies, he said yes. By go + day 5 they started to stream in. For the first 2 weeks of the war, Russia conquered 1/4 of Ukraine. Once C&C was re-established that all stopped, and has been a steady reversal since. It's rare that you can point at a single point of change, but this is one of those. Having Ukrainian officials tweeting Musk can fuck off, is probably as big a threat to the war effort as Putin rattling nukes at them. The level of cognitive dissonance on display by people who should know better is astonishing."



It is a pretty crazy post because none of that happened.

Like none of it. They didn’t destroy Ukraines satcom, internet or phone or cell coverage. Hence why we watched streaming snap chat stories of the invasion. This post was nonsense.

3 reasons Moscow isn't taking down Ukraine's cell networks  - POLITICO

We commented on it here when it happened. I could not believe they had reliable internet and cell coverage during the invasion, as if they fought us, that’d be the first to go. Same with electricity honestly.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 16, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> It is a pretty crazy post because none of that happened.
> 
> Like none of it. They didn’t destroy Ukraines satcom, internet or phone or cell coverage. Hence why we watched streaming snap chat stories of the invasion. This post was nonsense.
> 
> ...



Well, we know the reason why they didn't. Their secure comms don't even work. Their GLONASS systems in their planes don't work, to the point that they had handheld Garmins in their cockpits.

Politico as a source for .mil analysis is substandard. When you consider the fact that because their on unsecure comms it has facilitated the targeting of dozens of general officers.

It's just pure incompetence. But mostly because their systems are trash.


----------



## Cookie_ (Oct 16, 2022)

In regards to the Musk stuff:

His "treaty" proposal was nothing except Pro-Russian terms; when The Kremlin loves your deal, it's probably not a good compromise.  The only time you see peace deals in which a country surrenders so much of its sovereignty is when that country is getting it's ass stomped and risks losing even more should the war continue. At this point, that isn't where the Ukrainian forces are.

It was only after he was roundly beaten up for his ridiculously Russian friendly peace proposal that he threatened to pull Starlink if the US didn't start paying for it. There are legit business reasons for Musk to try and get some of the Mil complex money, but the timing of his plan makes it look like he was just trying to punish Ukraine because they told him to fuck off with his peace suggestions.
He put Starlink there at his company's own cost, and that's his problem; he'll either eat these costs financially or in the sphere of public opinion if he chooses (in the future) to pull out when he's still not being paid.
Honestly, supporting the Ukrainians pro-bono is likely to net him tons of money in the future because the proof of concept has been excellent.

To the conversation about American support:

I tend to be more in the realm of @Devildoc as I think we militarily (directly or indirectly through financial support) spend way too much of our resources in way too many countries, when those dollars could be much better spent here. That's not to say I don't support any aid, but that I do think it needs to be something we actually monitor instead of treating like a 10 year old who has full access to the amazon account. 
That being said, when Russian is doing shit like this:



ThunderHorse said:


> There can be no peace.
> 
> How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians
> 
> *If a country invaded us and forceably removed thousands of Children* we'd have gone to nukes already.  Problem for Ukraine is they gave up their nukes.



fuck it. Send the Ukrainians what help we can. This literally meets what the U.N. (as worthless as they can be) considers Genocide.  



> *Article II*
> _In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:_
> 
> Killing members of the group;
> ...


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 16, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> In regards to the Musk stuff:
> 
> His "treaty" proposal was nothing except Pro-Russian terms; when The Kremlin loves your deal, it's probably not a good compromise.  The only time you see peace deals in which a country surrenders so much of its sovereignty is when that country is getting it's ass stomped and risks losing even more should the war continue. At this point, that isn't where the Ukrainian forces are.
> 
> ...



I have no problem with support especially vis a vis genocide.  And I have no problem supplying, training, and equipping.  I think I have been pretty articulate about my concerns (and not claiming you haven't picked up on that @Cookie_, just saying).


----------



## AWP (Oct 16, 2022)

There's more at stake here than "just" the Ukraine. It checks Putin and the longer the war drags on the Russian people will grow more restless. Enough to overthrow Putin and Co.? Dunno, but we won't unless that pressure is applied.

The US has a BAD history of cutting and running, dumping our allies in a time of need; we're kind of a shitty partner to be honest. Seeing this through, even with material and political support, sends a message to China, NK, and whoever else wants to play a real life game of Risk.

Even if we tried to moderate a peace deal, the best we can hope for is a return to the status quo antebellum; that's also bullshit.

I'm not happy about announcing aid package after aid package before the last one was even delivered. We did this shit with Pakistan for two decades and that turned out well...

If I thought a half trillion would return the Crimea to the Ukraine and lead to Putin's ousting, then cut a check. We act like out government understands economics and fiscal responsibility. We're morons if we think that. The USG doesn't care and will just keep spending. If we're going to run up our national debt, at least have something to show for our impending national poverty.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 16, 2022)

pardus said:


> Yup. Western cuckolds are begging for that exact scenario. What makes me laugh is that rightwing Americans are sucking Putin's cock as cockholds because they are just against the US democrat party. When in fact, they are are traitors. I hate conservatives as much as I hate antifa cunts, you all need to die, and we all need to get back to a moderate point of view.  That's the only way that we will win/be normal.


Brother, conservatives are looking inward because they're under attack. A presidential election was stolen and the people who stole it had the Zelenski govt in their pocket. Putin smelled blood in the water, thought his forces were up to the task, and made his play. Corruption in Ukraine, weakness in NATO, and a multi year long soft coup in the US, paved the way for this conflict.

We tried warning Europe about a bunch of stuff and they laughed.






I'm all for helping the Ukrainians, but equipment and money needs to be accounted for. That said... a couple billion dollars for the destruction of Russia, is a hell of a deal! Especially after everything Russia has put us through, via their allies and multidecade psyop crap.


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> See my previous posts, like most of them. I am pro-Ukraine, and want them to win, however that looks like. I do not like Putin.
> 
> All I am saying is for the love of anything can we have some checks and balances on this and not turn it into another 20-year effort I think Afghanistan?
> 
> But I also say as a fiscal conservative that you cannot say this is not hurting the economy in some way when we are running head down into a recession.


I was unfair and harsh with you and I apologize for that, it was undeserved. 
I am also not advocating for an endless cash flow into Ukraine. If we pump weapons, money etc... into Ukraine right now and in large quantity, it will have a huge effect on the outcome of the war, it will end favorably for the free world and it will end a lot quicker, meaning less death on all sides, and making it cheaper in the long run. We need to show some balls, sanction Russia totally, and really give Ukraine what it needs, this war could've been over this year had we done so, the trade and goodwill generated would offset the costs too.


AWP said:


> There's more at stake here than "just" the Ukraine. It checks Putin and the longer the war drags on the Russian people will grow more restless. Enough to overthrow Putin and Co.? Dunno, but we won't unless that pressure is applied.
> 
> The US has a BAD history of cutting and running, dumping our allies in a time of need; we're kind of a shitty partner to be honest. Seeing this through, even with material and political support, sends a message to China, NK, and whoever else wants to play a real life game of Risk.
> 
> ...


Great post. There is a lot more at stake here than Ukraine, while the doing the right thing justification would be enough, we have to think wider and see how this affects the world, and in particular our enemies/potential enemies. The debacle of leaving Afghanistan was a huge sign to the rest of the world that we are weak and incompetent, Putin was undoubtedly emboldened by that, and who could blame him? If we had stood back, wrung our hands and doing nothing in Ukraine, Taiwan would probably be in a much worse position right now.



R.Caerbannog said:


> Brother, conservatives are looking inward because they're under attack. A presidential election was stolen and the people who stole it had the Zelenski govt in their pocket. Putin smelled blood in the water, thought his forces were up to the task, and made his play. Corruption in Ukraine, weakness in NATO, and a multi year long soft coup in the US, paved the way for this conflict.
> 
> We tried warning Europe about a bunch of stuff and they laughed.
> 
> ...


To be clear I mean the the hard core of the conservatives, not conservatives in general, it's always the extremes of any party/movement that are the assholes and the noise makers. With the media overwhelmingly backing the left and the extreme left I understand why the conservatives are defensive.
I don't want to speculate about elections or Zelenski because I simply don't know. Yeah it was the perfect storm with the points you made about Putin, Ukraine, NATO etc...
Germany fucked up bigtime, I think largely because of that bitch Merkel, I hope they see that now and will act accordingly in future, the EU wasn't much better, and Hungary can suck my balls.
There hasn't been a lot of money sent to Ukraine as far as I know, it's mostly equipment which is being remade here and keeping our arms industry moving. 
What do you mean accounted for with the aid, we hand it to the govt, do you think we should be asking for unit hand-receipts? It just doesn't work that way, never has never will. The US military writes off most of the equipment that we deploy with ourselves. That said I do know there are plans being formulated for independent escorts of weapons to military depots.


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

Modern warfare…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581347535242686464


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

“Army Training Sir!”


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581379486418755584

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581407586091663360


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

I try to avoid Ukrainian claims due to possible/probable bias, but this brings up an interesting point. You don’t often see or hear of Russians helping their wounded very much, they obviously do but not like the Ukrainians or other western militaries do.
It's interesting to see how this war is effecting the US military medical thinking too, one of the last schools I went to in the US Army was DECM, Delayed Evacuation Casualty Management, Prolonged Field Care in other words, basically the ability for a medic to sit on a patient with multiple amputations etc... for days, instead of minutes, I'm sure @TLDR20 knows exactly what I'm talking about. Now due to the prevalence of drones with thermal equipped cameras and munitions, and the large thermal signatures from medical equipment needed to perform PFC, it is now unsafe and unwise to attempt this in a near peer/conventional conflict, focus is going back to basic TCCC and immediate evacuation by any means possible, when just a couple of years ago we were doing PFC because we didn't think we'd have the ability to evac by air, so we just said, they have to wait... Now there is a push for UAV medevac and the Ukrainians have mastered the use of casevac to get their people to a hospital ASAP (they don't have aid stations and field hospitals to speak of). All very interesting.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581158396551565313


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581721575597883392
One for the tank nerds 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581010349540528129


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581122610632740865

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581071906421510144

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581566937896980486


----------



## pardus (Oct 16, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581637290476339201


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 16, 2022)

pardus said:


> Modern warfare…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581347535242686464


Also building Siegfried Line East...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581353267438620673


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 16, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Also building Siegfried Line East...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581353267438620673


Surreal too see this in modern times


----------



## Totentanz (Oct 16, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Surreal too see this in modern times



Which part?  There are certain aspects of terrain and mobility that will remain true long after the the worms choke on the ash of WWIII and anyone who could pay Jeff Bezos enough has flown off and colonized Mars.

I wouldn't be surprised if there already have been smaller-scale applications of conventional obstacles.  Part of me wants to see if the Ukrainians have managed to implement an abatis anywhere...


----------



## AWP (Oct 16, 2022)

“Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.” -Some WWII guy


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> I was unfair and harsh with you and I apologize for that, it was undeserved.
> I am also not advocating for an endless cash flow into Ukraine. If we pump weapons, money etc... into Ukraine right now and in large quantity, it will have a huge effect on the outcome of the war, it will end favorably for the free world and it will end a lot quicker, meaning less death on all sides, and making it cheaper in the long run. We need to show some balls, sanction Russia totally, and really give Ukraine what it needs, this war could've been over this year had we done so, the trade and goodwill generated would offset the costs too.
> 
> Great post. There is a lot more at stake here than Ukraine, while the doing the right thing justification would be enough, we have to think wider and see how this affects the world, and in particular our enemies/potential enemies. The debacle of leaving Afghanistan was a huge sign to the rest of the world that we are weak and incompetent, Putin was undoubtedly emboldened by that, and who could blame him? If we had stood back, wrung our hands and doing nothing in Ukraine, Taiwan would probably be in a much worse position right now.
> ...


Regarding aid accountability, I'm thinking digital and physical records of where stuff, supplies, and money went. That way, when this war is over, we can take accounts of material expenditure and see how much was misappropriated. Reason for this isn't entirely fiscal either, I'm worried about our weapons showing up in ME brushfire wars after Russia is pacified.

Plus, with Ukraine's agricultural base destroyed, I get the feeling they're gonna be a food importer next year. Given that food and energy are about to become more difficult to manage, we're gonna have to figure out a way to meet Ukraine's and other allied nation's calorie needs, without stressing our agricultural base.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Oct 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581122610632740865
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581071906421510144
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581566937896980486


Maybe I'm being cynical, but I think the Saudis are trying to curry favor and place themselves at the front of the que, regarding possible future grain shipments. 

I don't think they realize how long it's gonna take Ukraine to build back it's agricultural system.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581381393581428736


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 17, 2022)

Couldn’t find an article from a more well known source that wasn’t behind a paywall.

Ukraine holds talks with US over gas reserves to fight supply crisis


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## ThunderHorse (Oct 17, 2022)

AWP said:


> “Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.” -Some WWII guy



Obstacles for a defense in depth are still doctrine. Just thought it was interesting that they were building an entire defensive line. However, as seen by the Crimea Bridge the Russians are very good at building things out of concrete. After that the competence falls off a cliff.


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581986081871798273


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> I was unfair and harsh with you and I apologize for that, it was undeserved.



No worries.  This is a contentious subject with a lot of emotion and you are living between the ditches.  I appreciate and value your input, and I like a healthy dialogue.



pardus said:


> I try to avoid Ukrainian claims due to possible/probable bias, but this brings up an interesting point. You don’t often see or hear of Russians helping their wounded very much, they obviously do but not like the Ukrainians or other western militaries do.
> It's interesting to see how this war is effecting the US military medical thinking too, one of the last schools I went to in the US Army was DECM, Delayed Evacuation Casualty Management, Prolonged Field Care in other words, basically the ability for a medic to sit on a patient with multiple amputations etc... for days, instead of minutes, I'm sure @TLDR20 knows exactly what I'm talking about. Now due to the prevalence of drones with thermal equipped cameras and munitions, and the large thermal signatures from medical equipment needed to perform PFC, it is now unsafe and unwise to attempt this in a near peer/conventional conflict, focus is going back to basic TCCC and immediate evacuation by any means possible, when just a couple of years ago we were doing PFC because we didn't think we'd have the ability to evac by air, so we just said, they have to wait... Now there is a push for UAV medevac and the Ukrainians have mastered the use of casevac to get their people to a hospital ASAP (they don't have aid stations and field hospitals to speak of). All very interesting.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581158396551565313



DECM/PFC is being written in doctrine now (actually, post tense, it has been).  The Navy has been kinda, sorta on the forefront (aside from SOCOM) given their (and USMC) pivot to the Pacific theater, but expect it to spread more.


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> No worries.  This is a contentious subject with a lot of emotion and you are living between the ditches.  I appreciate and value your input, and I like a healthy dialogue.
> 
> 
> 
> DECM/PFC is being written in doctrine now (actually, post tense, it has been).  The Navy has been kinda, sorta on the forefront (aside from SOCOM) given their (and USMC) pivot to the Pacific theater, but expect it to spread more.


The Pacific will bring it's own problems, particularly if we get into island warfare. I'd be interested to see if the Navy has been thinking about Ukraine with regards to it's path going forward, I'm sure they have, doctrine takes a lot longer to catch up with practical methods on the ground, and this problem is just being worked through right now and has no solutions yet, least none that i'm aware of right now.


----------



## AWP (Oct 17, 2022)

We wouldn’t have to worry about a “pivot” (and maybe even this thread) had we made better foreign policy decisions over the last 30 years.


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

Very interesting. One thing I can say, is that if an NGO or individuals needed any help for Ukraine that Germany was said to be the place to go, as the German people were stepping up big time to make up for the real or perceived lack of German govt support for Ukraine. 
Zeihan doesn't mention Nordstream 1, which IIRC the Russians have recently offered to turn back on for Germany (presumably if they play nice).


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581711615942348800


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> Very interesting. One thing I can say, is that if an NGO or individuals needed any help for Ukraine that Germany was said to be the place to go, as the German people were stepping up big time to make up for the real or perceived lack of German govt support for Ukraine.
> Zeihan doesn't mention Nordstream 1, which IIRC the Russians have recently offered to turn back on for Germany (presumably if they play nice).



This is a bit disingenuous by the guy in the video. Cutting off NS1 didn’t just impact Germany, but all of Europe. The Germans tried (and failed) to be like Italy in WW2. By that I mean when victory for Russia seemed to be likely Germany sided with Russia. When the Ukrainians got to punching, then all of a sudden they sided with the west. Now, there’s more to it then just that, but Germany didn’t want any thing to do with helping Ukraine until after they already made their bed with Russia and realized they were shitty in it.


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> This is a bit disingenuous by the guy in the video. Cutting off NS1 didn’t just impact Germany, but all of Europe. The Germans tried (and failed) to be like Italy in WW2. By that I mean when victory for Russia seemed to be likely Germany sided with Russia. When the Ukrainians got to punching, then all of a sudden they sided with the west. Now, there’s more to it then just that, but Germany didn’t want any thing to do with helping Ukraine until after they already made their bed with Russia and realized they were shitty in it.


Good point, though Nordstream only went to Germany, the other European countries are fed by different pipelines. He also failed to Mention that Trump offered Germany gas from North America but Merkel turned him down in favour of Russia, a strategic mistake at best (I wouldn't mind betting that she has been on a Russian payroll at some point in her life).


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 17, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Germany didn’t want any thing to do with helping Ukraine until after they already made their bed with Russia and realized they were shitty in it.


But *they sent those.... <checks notes> helmets!*  ;)


----------



## pardus (Oct 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582045319528710155


----------



## Gordus (Oct 17, 2022)

Can't express how dissapointed I am in the German govs behaviour. Not just in regards to Ukraine, but the last 20 years of neglect in so many areas, including defense and sourcing. Be it whatever, but especialy in search for alternatives to Russia. The reason I usualy shut my mouth about it, is because I'm not the one who has to make those decisions and bear such responsibility. It's easy to be an armchair president. But this is really rough to look at and remain silent. Especialy because of the consequences.


----------



## AWP (Oct 17, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Can't express how dissapointed I am in the German govs behaviour. Not just in regards to Ukraine, but the last 20 years of neglect in so many areas, including defense and sourcing. Be it whatever, but especialy in search for alternatives to Russia. The reason I usualy shut my mouth about it, is because I'm not the one who has to make those decisions and bear such responsibility. It's easy to be an armchair president. But this has been really rough to look at and remain silent.


Germany will remain afraid of WWII until the end of time. Nations still allow events from 200, 500, 1000 years ago to influence modern actions. Hitler will still drive Germany 1000 years from now, just not quite how he envisioned.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 17, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> It is a pretty crazy post because none of that happened.
> 
> Like none of it. They didn’t destroy Ukraines satcom, internet or phone or cell coverage. Hence why we watched streaming snap chat stories of the invasion. This post was nonsense.
> 
> ...


Politico is wrong, Russia launched a massive cyber attack on the Ukraine during the initial phase, that's why Musk sent Starlink terminals to them.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> Good point, though Nordstream only went to Germany, the other European countries are fed by different pipelines. He also failed to Mention that Trump offered Germany gas from North America but Merkel turned him down in favour of Russia, a strategic mistake at best (I wouldn't mind betting that she has been on a Russian payroll at some point in her life).


Merkel was a member of the East German Communist Party,  so saying she is friendly towards Russia might be an understatement.


----------



## TLDR20 (Oct 17, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Politico is wrong, Russia launched a massive cyber attack on the Ukraine during the initial phase, that's why Musk sent Starlink terminals to them.



I mean, their services didn’t go down. So while they may have launched an attack, none of what was posted happened.

Why Hasn’t Russia Unleashed ‘Cybergeddon’ in Its War on Ukraine? | Russia Matters

Ukraine’s Engineers Battle To Keep The Internet Running While Russian Bombs Fall Around Them

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...cyberwar-with-ukraine-before-it-even-invaded/


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 17, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> I mean, their services didn’t go down. So while they may have launched an attack, none of what was posted happened.
> 
> Why Hasn’t Russia Unleashed ‘Cybergeddon’ in Its War on Ukraine? | Russia Matters
> 
> ...


It's not so much cyberattacks per se as it is attacks on infrastructure which disrupt the service.  At least that's my understanding:

Russia downed satellite internet in Ukraine -Western officials

Internet in Ukraine disrupted as Russian troops advance

https://therecord.media/internet-di...it-ukraine-following-russian-missile-strikes/


----------



## TLDR20 (Oct 17, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> It's not so much cyberattacks per se as it is attacks on infrastructure which disrupt the service.  At least that's my understanding:
> 
> Russia downed satellite internet in Ukraine -Western officials
> 
> ...



Right, but that is happening occasionally and recently. It did not happen at the outset of the invasion.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 17, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> Right, but that is happening occasionally and recently. It did not happen at the outset of the invasion.


Some did, according to what I've read (see 2nd article above). There may not have been a nationwide outage, but the Southern and Eastern parts were reportedly hit hard early.  However, with help, Ukraine seems to be mitigating these outages. 

It may be a matter of semantics but while cyberattacks/malware haven't necessarily been effective, apparently the other disruptions essentially result in the same effect and the need for alternate service provider, such as Starlink.


----------



## TLDR20 (Oct 17, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Some did, according to what I've read (see 2nd article above). There may not have been a nationwide outage, but the Southern and Eastern parts were reportedly hit hard early.  However, with help, Ukraine seems to be mitigating these outages.
> 
> It may be a matter of semantics but while cyberattacks/malware haven't necessarily been effective, apparently the other disruptions essentially result in the same effect and the need for alternate service provider, such as Starlink.



I get that. Your point is salient and accurate. 

But the post that I responded to was nonsense.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 17, 2022)

AWP said:


> Germany will remain afraid of WWII until the end of time. Nations still allow events from 200, 500, 1000 years ago to influence modern actions. Hitler will still drive Germany 1000 years from now, just not quite how he envisioned.



Germany is built on prosperity and welfare. Living on and used to cheap gas and oil from Russia. It's been a comfort for decades and nobody thought it would be necessary to search for alternatives. Nobody wanted to be bothered about the future, possible conflicts beyond sabre rattling, and contingencies. Only now it's dawning, that mistakes were made. Not when otherwise, you know totaly reliable Russia ..., often used Ukraine as economic leverage, whenever Germany supported anything they didn't agree with. Which happened long before this conflict.
The "but WWII" narratives, quasi appeasement policy of delays and bread crumb deliveries, happen first and foremost, to enure contineous trade with Russia. That's why the government and other elements act that way. They, but also the people, are afraid to lose the affluence, trade with Russia had guaranteed thus far, and be forced to freeze their asses off in winter.
Despite such fears, the majority here still supports Ukraine and a lot of if not most (military) experts call the gov out, on their excuses and behaviour.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 17, 2022)

It's not so easy as decision maker, when trapped between "Germany before everything else" and what's morally the right thing to do. Because I don't think we are bluffing, when dramaticaly increasing military spendings and capabilities in response to Russias invasion. It's happening and we also support the sanctions, send aid and arms. Despite being so dependent on them economicaly. So are they. We just have more to lose. But all these decisions, including the ( serious ) search for alternatives now, should have been made a long, LONG time ago ...


----------



## AWP (Oct 17, 2022)

There is some serious irony in a modern Germany which relies on Russia for anything.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 17, 2022)

AWP said:


> There is some serious irony in a modern Germany which relies on Russia for anything.



Yeah, but it's also a two way street where Russia gets hurt for their stupidity as well.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 18, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582277143199125504
It appears a fourth T-90M was lost. There are ( were ) reportedly only 100 T-90M in service ( link )


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581733028870488064


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 18, 2022)

So Biden calls accuses Saudi Arabia of being pro-Russian because they cut oil supplies, disregarding the facts they have pledged $400m in aid to Ukraine.

They respond to Biden’s accusations with threats, reminding him they are founded on jihad and martyrdom.

Saudi prince sends threat to the West after Biden warns of consequences for kingdom | Fox News

Despite your opinion on Saudi Arabia, you can’t just automatically accuse your political opponents of being pro-Russian. As we have discussed previously in this thread.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 18, 2022)

The Saudis must be a whole lot less worried about Iran and what's happening in Yemen (although the two are very closely related) right now than they were a couple of months ago.

That, and/or they perceive the US as considerably weaker than they were a couple of years ago, and expect that to continue for another couple of years.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> The Saudis must be a whole lot less worried about Iran and what's happening in Yemen (although the two are very closely related) right now than they were a couple of months ago.
> 
> That, and/or they perceive the US as considerably weaker than they were a couple of years ago, and expect that to continue for another couple of years.



I think that is an "and" and not an "or".  Iran is still a threat to them, and Yemen is a major issue; and given our economy and "go green at all costs" they see us as about as weak as we have been in many years, with at least two more years of it to go.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 18, 2022)

I'd just like to take this opportunity to say, fuck the Saudis. Also, fuck the Pakistanis and Turks. That is all.


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 18, 2022)

Ben Wallace on emergency trip to US amid Ukraine security concerns


----------



## SpitfireV (Oct 18, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> So Biden calls accuses Saudi Arabia of being pro-Russian because they cut oil supplies, disregarding the facts they have pledged $400m in aid to Ukraine.
> 
> They respond to Biden’s accusations with threats, reminding him they are founded on jihad and martyrdom.
> 
> ...



That's a prince speaking not necessarily the Saudi government. There are 100s if not thousands of princes 99% of them mean nothing.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 18, 2022)

Alert delivered on Tue Oct 18 2022 17:01:43 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time):

Caption: US intelligence reportedly says IRGC personnel training Russian forces in Crimea to overcome "problems" with drones purchased from Iran: News Outlet via New York Times.

Link: Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 18, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> So Biden calls accuses Saudi Arabia of being pro-Russian because they cut oil supplies, disregarding the facts they have pledged $400m in aid to Ukraine.
> 
> They respond to Biden’s accusations with threats, reminding him they are founded on jihad and martyrdom.
> 
> ...


Sometimes we just need to shut our face hole.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 18, 2022)

Wonder how effective this really is:
New app lets civilians help shoot down drones and missiles in Ukraine

How are they reconciling the delivery of false data (read: DoS type attack) - whether intentional or otherwise?

This conflict is particularly interesting given the apparent abundance of innovative modifications to "off the shelf" consumer products to defeat military systems and hardware.  Now, add civilian phone apps to the air defense net.

BTW, this is not to suggest Ukraine would be performing as well without some of the advanced weapons systems provided by the West.


----------



## AWP (Oct 18, 2022)

Crowd sourcing your IADS? Bold move, Cotton.


----------



## Dame (Oct 18, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582045319528710155


Saw this and laughed my ass off today!


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 19, 2022)

That price is married to the grand daughter of former King Abdulaziz Al Saud. So I’d say he has some clout and say in the Kingdom and their doings. 


SpitfireV said:


> That's a prince speaking not necessarily the Saudi government. There are 100s if not thousands of princes 99% of them mean nothing.


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 19, 2022)

Russian forces in Ukraine under pressure as Kherson towns to be evacuated

"The situation in the area of the 'Special Military Operation' can be described as tense," Sergei Surovikin, an air force general named this month to command Russia's invasion forces, told the state-owned Rossiya 24 television news channel.”

It wouldn’t be so tense if you were all dead or not in Ukraine. Still, surprised that the new Russian in charge of the “special military operation” would be so candid.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 19, 2022)

SpitfireV said:


> That's a prince speaking not necessarily the Saudi government. There are 100s if not thousands of princes 99% of them mean nothing.



No, it is Crown Prince and Prime Minister Muhammad Bin Salman.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 19, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Alert delivered on Tue Oct 18 2022 17:01:43 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time):
> 
> Caption: US intelligence reportedly says IRGC personnel training Russian forces in Crimea to overcome "problems" with drones purchased from Iran: News Outlet via New York Times.
> 
> Link: Iran Sends Drone Trainers to Crimea to Aid Russian Military



Would be a real shame if something happened to them à la Saky airfield.  Maybe a Tochka salvo, if they are located.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 20, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583050042784460800


----------



## AWP (Oct 20, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583050042784460800



Russian buildings are killing more Russians than the Ukrainians. We can add one more to the list soon..,


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 20, 2022)

U.S. says Iranian troops "directly engaged" in Crimea, backing Russian drone strikes

The way the headline read, made me think the Iranians were struck, but it just means they are engaging in combat. Less exciting, but still noteworthy.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 20, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> U.S. says Iranian troops "directly engaged" in Crimea, backing Russian drone strikes
> 
> The way the headline read, made me think the Iranians were struck, but it just means they are engaging in combat. Less exciting, but still noteworthy.


I think we’ve got some Iranian copper we picked up in Iraq that we’d be happy to give back to them in Ukraine.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 21, 2022)

Remember when the Russian rhetoric an the beginning of the invasion, was all about removing "Nazi" elements in Ukraine ?
A couple months ago, it switched kind of in a conceding way, to incapacitation of the Ukr government and military.
Now we have reached a point, where total collapse and starvation of the entire populace is not only being openly suggested, but regarded as the only option, because they "were forced to do so as the Ukrainians/West want to destroy them".
Typical, almost comicaly stereotypical Russian victimhood at it's absolute peak, whenever things aren't going their way. Reaching in every way to justify further and further escalation and their mindset. It's become so ludicrous, that even some of their Yes-men start to question that behaviour.
But who knows, maybe those cracks spread further, if they aren't just for show. One can hope. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582926857749467137


----------



## AWP (Oct 21, 2022)

The Russians are smoking so much copium even Snoop Dogg is telling them to slow down.

What does concern me is how they are slowly working their way towards options more vile than starving the populace. It is like these guys are grooming the Russian people for open atrocities while also testing the West's response to these "random" or "isolated" thoughts.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 22, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Would be a real shame if something happened to them à la Saky airfield.  Maybe a Tochka salvo, if they are located.



10 Iranians killed in Ukrainian strikes - report

Oh no !


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 22, 2022)

At what point do the Russian war drums begin to "beat retreat"?

Russia Is Wasting Its Last Good Troops In A Pointless Attack On A Worthless Town


----------



## pardus (Oct 22, 2022)

Ten Myths About US Aid to Ukraine


----------



## pardus (Oct 22, 2022)

The Words About Ukraine That Americans Need To Hear


----------



## pardus (Oct 22, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583975105465503746


----------



## AWP (Oct 22, 2022)

If you could fight WWI and Germany 1945 using modern weapons you’d have the Ukraine in 2022.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 23, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583975105465503746



In the longer version ( link ), they recover 16 dead Russians from that trench. Wonder if they just didn't have AT weapons.

Here's some intense footage of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting after being hit, also recording of a recent Su-34 crash.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584127900663496705

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584108205822849026


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 23, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584127900663496705


I'm guessing the concept of CSAR has to be virtually non-existent there?


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 23, 2022)

This guy makes some great video's.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 23, 2022)

So this weekend Ukrain defeated Czech Republic in Rugby in the European Trophy. Rugby hasn't been played in Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Most rugby clubs and their players answered the call and mobilized. Most of the national team players are likely going to return to the front.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583822589918871552


----------



## amlove21 (Oct 23, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'm guessing the concept of CSAR has to be virtually non-existent there?


Bro. I don't know how many times I need to say this, but I will again. 

The intelligence community owes me a fucking apology. For YEARS (decades?!) I've been retlighted (@AWP ) to believe the Russians were a pacing/peer threat. THAT was a lie *Maury Voice*. 

The breathless BroVetBois that were talking shit about the lil Russia propaganda film of them waking up with shaved heads for pushups and Spetznaz in DragonSkin need to get fucked. 

Russia is a paper fucking tiger with the GDP of Florida that cant perform basic ass logistics functions, let alone exquisite warfighting functions. they cant do raids... you want them to do PR? They'd get marked by MANPADS, and can't even communicate. 

If only some sort of world leader that could actually impose *any* DIMEFIL cost on Russia would say "enough" and bring everyone to the table. 

Oh well! Guess we are too busy with Trans Interviews, displaying a remarkable misunderstanding of State's rights and responsibilities. 

/rant


----------



## Gordus (Oct 23, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Russia is a paper fucking tiger …



My old man who served in the Soviet military, always said that in our West-Russia politics & comparison rants. He also predicted fairly accurately how a war would go down between Russia and Ukraine.
But because of mostly Western hype and Russian propaganda I also remained a little skeptical until this conflict.


----------



## AWP (Oct 24, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> I'm guessing the concept of CSAR has to be virtually non-existent there?



There are a lot of nations who can’t fathom why we put so much effort into CSAR. Most books I’ve read on the air war over SEA mention our willingness to perform CSAR as a major factor in a crew’s morale. The more I read about SOG, the more I see the same argument made as well.

At this point I’d like to call @amlove21 a marginally coifed aircrew cuck because I’m a dick and need coffee.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 24, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Bro. I don't know how many times I need to say this, but I will again.
> 
> The intelligence community owes me a fucking apology. For YEARS (decades?!) I've been retlighted (@AWP ) to believe the Russians were a pacing/peer threat. THAT was a lie *Maury Voice*.
> 
> ...



1991 all over again... when the wall fell and we made bro love under glastnost we saw that the Soviet military we thought was going to roll through the Fulda Gap and control the air was, well, as you said, a paper tiger.  The Soviet menace was about 20% of what our intel community said it was.

Deja vu all over again.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 24, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> 1991 all over again... when the wall fell and we made bro love under glastnost we saw that the Soviet military we thought was going to roll through the Fulda Gap and control the air was, well, as you said, a paper tiger.  The Soviet menace was about 20% of what our intel community said it was.
> 
> Deja vu all over again.


Yep.  There's a lot of money in making people scared of something.   The bigger the "something," the bigger the payoff.  That could be Soviets, it could be "they're taking our jobs," it could be "Orange Man is a threat to our very democracy!"  Fear works.  There are few things stronger.


----------



## AWP (Oct 24, 2022)

We found out the Soviets were, and are, paper tigers. We hyped the Iraqi army because of its size. We're hyping China now.

So what?

We're going to fall into the MICC argument? We spend too much money on defense and now that we see we have vastly overstated those threats we can slash our budget? Yeah, nah.

I'm not saying this board is making that argument (though some of you might), but almost every "We thought they were better" argument pivots (see what I did there?) to a "slash the budget" argument. Anyone who wore a uniform in the 70's or 90's saw the results of that nonsense. Could we trim the budget? Sure. Slash the budget? Are you insane?

We also have to guard against complacency. "Oh, we did all of this training only to find out our greatest threat was weak." That doesn't work and has never worked. We have an AMAZING track record of cutting funding and cutting training, which leads to increased funding for mortuary affairs. Always has, always will.


----------



## amlove21 (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> There are a lot of nations who can’t fathom why we put so much effort into CSAR. Most books I’ve read on the air war over SEA mention our willingness to perform CSAR as a major factor in a crew’s morale. The more I read about SOG, the more I see the same argument made as well.
> 
> At this point I’d like to call @amlove21 a marginally coifed aircrew cuck because I’m a dick and need coffee.


MARGINALLY?! That’s honestly the only part I disagree with.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> We found out the Soviets were, and are, paper tigers. We hyped the Iraqi army because of its size. We're hyping China now.
> 
> So what?
> 
> ...



_I_ think those are two very different arguments (finding out _post hoc_ that an adversary was weak, and slashing the defense budget) and not related; however, I also have read those arguments and some of the illogical maneuvering to make the point.

I would argue that because we spent so much on defense we hastened the demise of the USSR because they simply could not keep up, which led to the implosion of their economy.

Part of military deterrence is having more and better than the other guy.  I am on board with that.


----------



## AWP (Oct 24, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> _I_ think those are two very different arguments (finding out _post hoc_ that an adversary was weak, and slashing the defense budget) and not related; however, I also have read those arguments and some of the illogical maneuvering to make the point.
> 
> I would argue that because we spent so much on defense we hastened the demise of the USSR because they simply could not keep up, which led to the implosion of their economy.
> 
> Part of military deterrence is having more and better than the other guy.  I am on board with that.



I'm onboard with your post.

My argument is that believing an enemy is strong keeps the accountants and anti-defense folks at bay. It gives Congress and the President less wiggle room (or should at least) on defense spending. Our country, probably most countries, will look back and know we had a weak opponent, cut funding as a result, and then we find ourselves back in the same mess as before. Accountants and the anti-military are constantly looking for a reason to cut funding and the argument of deterrence loses steam when we trumpet our enemy's weakness. Perception drives "reality."


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm onboard with your post.
> 
> My argument is that believing an enemy is strong keeps the accountants and anti-defense folks at bay. It gives Congress and the President less wiggle room (or should at least) on defense spending. Our country, probably most countries, will look back and know we had a weak opponent, cut funding as a result, and then we find ourselves back in the same mess as before. Accountants and the anti-military are constantly looking for a reason to cut funding and the argument of deterrence loses steam when we trumpet our enemy's weakness. Perception drives "reality."



Yes, definitely.  Goes to your 'complacency' point, and how we always train (and fund) to fight the last war.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> If you could fight WWI and Germany 1945 using modern weapons you’d have the Ukraine in 2022.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584203002935549953





Soviet rifle squads with Mosins. WW2 howitzers. WW1 machine guns and trenches. Georgian Legion. Only thing missing, is that they roll out any operational T-34.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> We found out the Soviets were, and are, paper tigers. We hyped the Iraqi army because of its size. We're hyping China now.
> 
> So what?
> 
> ...


I thought about what you wrote, and I have a slightly different opinion.  I don't think it's a money issue.  Like you, I was in the Army in the mid-90s.  Budgets were low, but we also had an effective Army.  We smoked the shit out of Grenada, Panama, and even Iraq in the late 80s and early 90s.  In contrast, we had an unlimited budget in Iraq and Afghanistan and we all know how that turned out.

I don't think it was ever about the funding.  I remember our State Department rep talking about "If we had your budget..."  Bro, if you had our budget you'd just fail bigger.  It's about organizational culture and political will.  We were never going to be allowed to do what it took to win in Afghanistan or Iraq, because too much of what needed to be done was outside the purview of the military.

Congress literally makes us buy shit we don't need, because it affects their voters and donors.  We could slash A LOT and still have the best military in the world.  The problem isn't the military, its who's running it.


----------



## Topkick (Oct 24, 2022)

I think the old theory that we must able to fight and win two major wars simultaneously was a good plan, but budget cuts won't get that done. Can/could we fight and win in small insurgencies or an OOTWA on any given day? Sure. But if helicopters don't fly and tanks don't run, like in the 90's, we'll have problems.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 24, 2022)

I read this today, timely for this conversation:

Lessons from the 600-Ship Navy

Esteemed gentleman from New York @Marauder06 has a point; the funding and size don't matter if the political establishment doesn't support it.  The article speaks some to that.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 24, 2022)

Our goal is not and should not be to go toe-to-toe on equal footing with anyone.  Our military exists to "deter war and, should that fail, to fight and conclude war to the advantage of the United States."  It exists to fight and win wars.  Period. That's their core expertise - a fact that seems to be lost on many in Washington these days.

In order to achieve this, we need the best leaders, training, and equipment/technology. And when the time comes for us to choose violence, we have a moral obligation to act overwhelmingly so as to limit suffering and lives lost by concluding the conflict as soon as possible. Maximizing our military advantages allows us to do so. That's a result of both culture/political will and funding...how's that for walking both sides?

In terms of funding, particularly when it comes to R&D efforts, sure, there's efficiencies to be had.  After all, it is the government; there's waste everywhere.  However, we must continue spend on leaders, training, and advanced systems now more than ever as potential adversaries continue to emerge, some with numerical superiority and advanced technologies. Political will alone won't get us over that hill. We must have the right tools. It requires a comprehensive approach.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> We found out the Soviets were, and are, paper tigers. We hyped the Iraqi army because of its size. We're hyping China now.
> 
> So what?
> 
> ...


I bet you 1000000000% that la lloyd is going to slash end strength in the 2024 fiscal year and then Byron will get us into some deep shit that requires an Army the size of what we have in 1988.  Say a lot of shit about Shinseki, but he at least knew his end strength number to sustain an invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I bet you 1000000000% that la lloyd is going to slash end strength in the 2024 fiscal year and then Byron will get us into some deep shit that requires an Army the size of what we have in 1988.  Say a lot of shit about Shinseki, but he at least knew his end strength number to sustain an invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq.


Well that’s one way to end our recruiting problem.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 24, 2022)

Gotta love the commies in our own country moving towards an appeasement agenda in the guise of "diplomacy".
Liberal Democrats call on Biden to shift Ukraine strategy | CNN Politics


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Gotta love the commies in our own country moving towards an appeasement agenda in the guise of "diplomacy".
> Liberal Democrats call on Biden to shift Ukraine strategy | CNN Politics


The Supposed Midterm Red Wave may have them worrying about losing the White House in 24


----------



## Gordus (Oct 25, 2022)

AWP said:


> What does concern me is how they are slowly working their way towards options more vile than starving the populace.



I don't know how more vile it can get than the following one.

The host was allegedly removed for these remarks because this one in particular caught attention outside of Russia. But he's been reportedly ranting like that for months.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584054018145685504
Then there is this. Should probably stay clear of windows.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584725196581523456


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 26, 2022)

Zero sympathy for whoever wrote in the floaral notebook if they died anywhere in Ukraine. Special Report: Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine — Reuters


----------



## pardus (Oct 27, 2022)

I guess the Iranians will be making up for this shortfall. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585445002850832384


----------



## pardus (Oct 27, 2022)

Russia’s Recruiting Afghan Commandos For Ukraine War.


----------



## pardus (Oct 27, 2022)

Unconfirmed report of Russia using Ricin on the frontline.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585224155896897537

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585357380426272768


----------



## pardus (Oct 27, 2022)

Putin’s goddaughter defects to the west?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585504462604566528


----------



## pardus (Oct 27, 2022)

More Chechen’s bite the dust due to their own stupidity. I guess Allah wasn’t so great that day lol


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585271358455484416


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 27, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> If only some sort of world leader that could actually impose *any* DIMEFIL cost on Russia would say "enough" and bring everyone to the table.
> 
> Oh well! Guess we are too busy with Trans Interviews, displaying a remarkable misunderstanding of State's rights and responsibilities.
> 
> /rant


Just acknowledging the DIMEFIL reference.


----------



## AWP (Oct 27, 2022)

pardus said:


> Russia’s Recruiting Afghan Commandos For Ukraine War.



That would be like Carter hiring Vietnamese sappers to bring our folks back from Iran…


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 27, 2022)

Translation of Putin’s speech Putin Speech: "America Has Nothing to Offer the World Except Domination"


----------



## pardus (Oct 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585623450437263362

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585736594186698752

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585560597697003525


----------



## AWP (Oct 28, 2022)

pardus said:


> Putin’s goddaughter defects to the west?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585504462604566528
> View attachment 40807



I can't believe you people, I have to be first to mention this?

I'd hit that like a Cat 5 into Puerto Rico.
I'd learn Russian just to hear her tell me how bad I sucked in bed.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585945480357244929


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 28, 2022)

The "costume meme" game on Facebook is strong today!


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 28, 2022)

I do not know the veracity of this:

Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I do not know the veracity of this:
> 
> Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel


oooh!  I think I remember that scene from the 2nd Call of Duty game!  ;)


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 28, 2022)

AWP said:


> I can't believe you people, I have to be first to mention this?
> 
> I'd hit that like a Cat 5 into Puerto Rico.
> I'd learn Russian just to hear her tell me how bad I sucked in bed.


To me she looks like that woman who did a porno while her boyfriend was off at basic training.  The one that this meme was based on:


----------



## pardus (Oct 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586084015785889794


----------



## AWP (Oct 28, 2022)

Somewhere in Russia, a building cries out for the lost opportunity...


----------



## pardus (Oct 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586069843102797824


----------



## AWP (Oct 28, 2022)

Serious question: at what point will nations start running out of ammo to "sell" to Russia? NK's only going so deep into its reserves. China...don't see it. Belarus certainly can't possess massive stocks of viable ammo to give away AND reserve some for national defense. If Russia's industry could keep up, none of this would happen. Russia is expending more ammo than it can beg, borrow, buy, steal, or manufacture, and is still losing the war.


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 28, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question*: at what point will nations start running out of ammo to "sell" to Russia? *NK's only going so deep into its reserves. China...don't see it. Belarus certainly can't possess massive stocks of viable ammo to give away AND reserve some for national defense. If Russia's industry could keep up, none of this would happen. Russia is expending more ammo than it can beg, borrow, buy, steal, or manufacture, and is still losing the war.


Never?  They'll just keep using shittier and shittier gear.  Or they'll just hire people we trained, who have our gear, to fight for them in Ukraine.  Looking at you, Afghanistan...

It's like I taught my daughter when she was watching me play Medieval Total War years ago:  "if you can't have good troops, have lots of troops."  Russia has LOTS of troops.  And absolutely does not care what happens to them.


----------



## pardus (Oct 28, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: at what point will nations start running out of ammo to "sell" to Russia? NK's only going so deep into its reserves. China...don't see it. Belarus certainly can't possess massive stocks of viable ammo to give away AND reserve some for national defense. If Russia's industry could keep up, none of this would happen. Russia is expending more ammo than it can beg, borrow, buy, steal, or manufacture, and is still losing the war.


At this point I feel we’re in a place that either Ukraine pulls off some awesome magical shit and throws Russia out (possible) or the Russian army collapses and runs (less likely), or our favorite KGB COL digs deeper into the Puther bunker and convinces himself that he can win through attrition before his ammo runs out, he’s forgotten however that the Blitz didn’t work and won’t here. He’s going to bleed Russia dry until his own people send him to the Gulag in the sky where Stalin will laugh at him and call him a loser. 
I think China will turn on him somehow, and where China leads, NK follows, that leaves Belarus, who were weak to start with and ready for a revolution, and Iran, and who knows what those crazy fucks have stored and are willing to let go of, probably not too much what with the Hebrew hammer and the Saudis itching to crush them. 
Russia is a dead man walking, it’s just a matter of how many will suffer before Putin is dispatched.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 28, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586084015785889794


I bet it was indeed military sport shooting 🤣

Holy cow. Why do they even try to come up with this silly cover stories.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 28, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586020392044761089
Ukrainian soldiers: "This Excalibur. I like it. Another !"


----------



## Dame (Oct 28, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: at what point will nations start running out of ammo to "sell" to Russia? NK's only going so deep into its reserves. *China...don't see it. *


This. China won't waste its weapons on this.


----------



## AWP (Oct 28, 2022)

Gordus said:


> In the longer version ( link ), they recover 16 dead Russians from that trench. Wonder if they just didn't have AT weapons.
> 
> Here's some intense footage of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting after being hit, also recording of a recent Su-34 crash.
> 
> ...



CW Lemoine and another pilot debunk the Su-25 video. According to them it is an  older video and the pilot had a line strike.


----------



## Jaknight (Oct 28, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Never?  They'll just keep using shittier and shittier gear.  Or they'll just hire people we trained, who have our gear, to fight for them in Ukraine.  Looking at you, Afghanistan...
> 
> It's like I taught my daughter when she was watching me play Medieval Total War years ago:  "if you can't have good troops, have lots of troops."  Russia has LOTS of troops.  And absolutely does not care what happens to them.


Russian strategy


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 28, 2022)

Gordus said:


> In the longer version ( link ), they recover 16 dead Russians from that trench. Wonder if they just didn't have AT weapons.
> 
> Here's some intense footage of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting after being hit, also recording of a recent Su-34 crash.
> 
> ...


The SU-25 eject may have been a training flight in Russia.  Some claims were made that he clipped power lines (slo-mo version shows the vertical stabilizer (aka tail) slice clean through.  

As far as over stating their abilities, over stating is better then understating (see Grenada).


----------



## Gordus (Oct 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> CW Lemoine and another pilot debunk the Su-25 video. According to them it is an  older video and the pilot had a line strike.



Movers channel is great. According to this article, the crash did happen pretty recently though, in June 2022. But in Belgorod, Russia. You can also see the V markings in slo-mo.


----------



## AWP (Oct 29, 2022)

I'd hate to see the work and sacrifice being done in the Ukraine undermined by overzealous or even unscrupulous individuals passing off videos for clicks.

In general, we see social media becoming a part of the historical record. Think about that, Twitter as a valid source for historical information. That day is either here or in the very near future. We, aka "all of y'all reading this" have a responsibility to push back on false narratives.

Plus, as we've seen in the last few years, once a false narrative gains traction, good luck recovering the truth. I can say with no exaggeration that ONE bullshit story, repeated thanks to social media, can change the world. Looking at you vaccines cause autism "study."

Anyway, that's my take on one topic and maybe worth what you paid for.


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'd hate to see the work and sacrifice being done in the Ukraine undermined by overzealous or even unscrupulous individuals passing off videos for clicks.
> 
> In general, we see social media becoming a part of the historical record. Think about that, Twitter as a valid source for historical information. That day is either here or in the very near future. We, aka "all of y'all reading this" have a responsibility to push back on false narratives.
> 
> ...


Excellent post.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 29, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Movers channel is great. According to this article, the crash did happen pretty recently though, in June 2022. But in Belgorod, Russia. You can also see the V markings in slo-mo.



Sorry, messed up. Here's the correct link.

Bodycam footage shows Russian pilot ejecting before a crash, probably after his jet clipped a power line in training


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

I really hope this is true!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586269146693926912


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'd hate to see the work and sacrifice being done in the Ukraine undermined by overzealous or even unscrupulous individuals passing off videos for clicks.
> 
> In general, we see social media becoming a part of the historical record. Think about that, Twitter as a valid source for historical information. That day is either here or in the very near future. We, aka "all of y'all reading this" have a responsibility to push back on false narratives.
> 
> ...



You're absolutely right BUT at the same time we need to be cautious of overreacting.   That's how you end up in Trudeau's Canada. 

"Trudeau’s Impending Censorship State | theTrumpet.com" Trudeau’s Impending Censorship State


----------



## Marauder06 (Oct 29, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> You're absolutely right BUT at the same time we need to be cautious of overreacting.   That's how you end up in Trudeau's Canada.
> 
> "Trudeau’s Impending Censorship State | theTrumpet.com" Trudeau’s Impending Censorship State


Maybe Musk can buy Canada next ;)


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'd hate to see the work and sacrifice being done in the Ukraine undermined by overzealous or even unscrupulous individuals passing off videos for clicks.
> 
> In general, we see social media becoming a part of the historical record. Think about that, Twitter as a valid source for historical information. That day is either here or in the very near future. We, aka "all of y'all reading this" have a responsibility to push back on false narratives.
> 
> ...




Probably why those social networks need to regulated like utilities rather than private companies.  They are now a town square and thus should not be there to stifle speech of the village idiot that they hate because he doesn't align with them.

The great thing about Twitter is the speed of information that can go out. Alex Berenson was banned by the blueanons and we got retlighted for him not touting the medical orthodoxy, but he got his account back.  He like many started writing on substack, a place with a lot of conservative writers.  But substack in HQd in San Francisco, how long before the blueanons come for that company? 

We saw the speed of information from the conservative reporters that covered the BLM Riots and the ability for people to go live on twitter showed you that direct information and we became totally unreliant on the establishment media. So it's important for the company itself to not have intense policing powers to stifle information.  Because of twitter, we've had tremendous speed of information on Ukraine. We didn't really get that with Syria, for whatever reason the idiots that ran the company thought it was totally ok for the jihadis to use the platform to recruit and radicalize people. Heck I think Jihadis still have free reign on twitter.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 29, 2022)

pardus said:


> I really hope this is true!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586269146693926912



It appears the Ukrainian forces did in fact carry out strikes against two Russian Navy vessels, with their newly developed drone craft.

There seem to have been multiple attempts ?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586363975817515009
Quick recall of an earlier article.

Has Ukraine Developed Kamikaze Drone Boats To Attack Russia’s Navy?

The Russian Navy just found out, that they have indeed.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 29, 2022)

Gordus said:


> It appears the Ukrainian forces did in fact carry out strikes against two Russian Navy vessels, with their newly developed drone craft.
> 
> There seem to have been multiple attempts ?
> 
> ...


It's a drone, calling it a suicide drone or kamikaze is bullshit.  They are not living beings, they are just machines.


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> It's a drone, calling it a suicide drone or kamikaze is bullshit.  They are not living beings, they are just machines.


It’s because it’s a self destructing drone as opposed to a drone that delivers ordinance, the name is a little dramatic perhaps but understandable IMHO.


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586366157858418688


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.


----------



## BloodStripe (Oct 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> Serious question: at what point will nations start running out of ammo to "sell" to Russia? NK's only going so deep into its reserves. China...don't see it. Belarus certainly can't possess massive stocks of viable ammo to give away AND reserve some for national defense. If Russia's industry could keep up, none of this would happen. Russia is expending more ammo than it can beg, borrow, buy, steal, or manufacture, and is still losing the war.


There’s a lot of ammo on the grey market out there. I don’t see Belarus sticking around much longer than Poland during WW2 should WW3 breakout anyways, so they are hedging on Russia to be their savior. NK will supply them with a lot too. I’d imagine they’ll get some newer Russian made equipment in return. Iran will be wary to give them too much due to Israel, and the Russians have a lot of influence in Africa (though it may be waning some as a result of Ukraine and China being the new toy in town with money).


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586468755911376896


----------



## pardus (Oct 29, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586472554302435328


----------



## Gordus (Oct 29, 2022)

If true, this attack caused significantly greater damage than early official reports suggest. Though as evident in some of the footage, at least one of the drone craft were disabled or destroyed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586410201279873024


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 29, 2022)

I’m curious how much R&D is coming out of this war.


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 30, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I’m curious how much R&D is coming out of this war.


I think Iran is noting how well drone swarms work.  Hopefully Taiwan and  DoD is paying attention.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 30, 2022)

I don’t know if I would necessarily call or compare that to drone swarms, that are currently being developed, possibly also by Iran. It seems to me more like they ( or Russia ) were "just" carrying out saturation strikes, like iirc happened in Saudi Arabia. Coordinated swarm attacks will prob become the next big thing though.


----------



## pardus (Oct 30, 2022)

Update on the firing of Col-Gen Lapin, quite an interesting thread, seems Lapin was doing exactly what was expected of him, but for some reason was fired for doing so. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586488705745047552


----------



## AWP (Oct 30, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I think Iran is noting how well drone swarms work.  Hopefully Taiwan and  DoD is paying attention.



They've known for years now. They used them well enough that Saudi was running out of Patriot missiles and the UAE kept up almost 24/7 defensive counter air orbits near Abu Dhabi and Dubai using AH-64's. Plus there were several in Syria which I think were tied to Iranian-back groups. This conflict is just demonstrating waterborne swarms.

To that end though, using Pats and Apaches to counter drones is a bucket of fail. All of the high end laser this and high tech that to counter drones is also a bucket of fail if you can't put them on nearly every vehicle and street corner.

Drone tech is so advanced, and our ability to counter it so miniscule, that high school students could destroy large conventional forces using nothing but drones. To further extrapolate that point...people want to take our AR's because those are weapons of war, but where are the calls to stop selling toy drones in the US?

That convo is going to be *amazing *the first time some kids blow up a high school gym using COTS drones and tannerite.


----------



## Gordus (Oct 30, 2022)

AWP said:


> ...  Drone tech is so advanced, and our ability to counter it so miniscule, that high school students could destroy large conventional forces using nothing but dones. To further extrapolate that point...people want to take our AR's because those are weapons of war, but where are the calls to stop selling toy drones in the US?



Drones seem to have a great destructive potential and the prospects are terrifying. Loitering ( conventional and CBRN ) munition of all sizes. If you wanted, they could be nigh impossible to detect. Can be configured as swarms. I know that some countries, incl Germany are working on countermeasures, but it feels like they'll be lagging behind. Maybe ( hope & wish really ) that's an unfair assumption.


----------



## pardus (Oct 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586618886606274563


----------



## ThunderHorse (Oct 30, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Drones seem to have a great destructive potential and the prospects are terrifying. Loitering ( conventional and CBRN ) munition of all sizes. If you wanted, they could be nigh impossible to detect. Can be configured as swarms. I know that some countries, incl Germany are working on countermeasures, but it feels like they'll be lagging behind. Maybe ( hope & wish really ) that's an unfair assumption.



Drone Swarms...do I have my movies right, but reminds me of Enders Game?


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586883449490743296


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

In Soviet Russia you don’t own car, car owns you…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586809044249051137


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

This will be VERY interesting to watch go forward.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586840910054277120

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586708397725999106


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

Some OSINT I just received…


“Massive missile attack on Ukraine! What is known now:

▪️ Kyiv region. Klitschko confirmed the strike (Труха⚡️Киев) on the capital's critical infrastructure, and Kuleb - flights to the region. Repeated explosions are reported.

▪️ Zaporozhye region. Starukh confirmed the missile attack on the regional center and damage (Труха Запорожье) to critical infrastructure.

Vinnytsia region. Borzov reported that a missile was shot down over the region (Труха ⚡️ Вінниця) and fell on civilian objects. There are no casualties.

▪️ Mykolaiv region. Explosions are reported (Труха⚡️Николаев). Details have not yet been disclosed.

▪️ Kharkiv region. Terekhov confirmed the strike (Труха⚡️Харьков) on the critical infrastructure of the regional center.

▪️ Rivne region. Explosions are reported (Рівне⚡️Труха).

▪️Lviv region. Explosions are reported (Львів⚡️Труха).

▪️ Zhytomyr region. Strong explosions are reported (Труха⚡️Житомир).

▪️ Kirovohrad region. Raykovich confirmed the strike (Труха⚡️Кропивницький) on an energy facility in the Svitlovodsk region.

▪️ Chernivtsi region. Zaparanyuk reported that there is damage (Чернівці⚡️Труха) to critical infrastructure.”


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586948006032580609


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586999931730292736


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

Cross border fun…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587014320877076480


----------



## pardus (Oct 31, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587008850166775808


----------



## Gordus (Oct 31, 2022)

Sounds promising.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587101872451686403


----------



## DA SWO (Oct 31, 2022)

AWP said:


> They've known for years now. They used them well enough that Saudi was running out of Patriot missiles and the UAE kept up almost 24/7 defensive counter air orbits near Abu Dhabi and Dubai using AH-64's. Plus there were several in Syria which I think were tied to Iranian-back groups. This conflict is just demonstrating waterborne swarms.
> 
> To that end though, using Pats and Apaches to counter drones is a bucket of fail. All of the high end laser this and high tech that to counter drones is also a bucket of fail if you can't put them on nearly every vehicle and street corner.
> 
> ...


Last sentence, last part.
Wife and I have had this conversation many times.  I'm surprised Tannerite is still on the market.  There is a canadian company that was displaying at SHOT awhile that had a "Tannerite" like product where you could combine to get the level of bang desired.  They were marketing towards Hollywood, but secondary uses seemed pretty obvious.


----------



## Devildoc (Oct 31, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Last sentence, last part.
> Wife and I have had this conversation many times.  I'm surprised Tannerite is still on the market.  There is a canadian company that was displaying at SHOT awhile that had a "Tannerite" like product where you could combine to get the level of bang desired.  They were marketing towards Hollywood, but secondary uses seemed pretty obvious.



Tannerite was the cause of my first arrest, as a teen.  I did not exercise good judgment.


----------



## RackMaster (Oct 31, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Last sentence, last part.
> Wife and I have had this conversation many times.  I'm surprised Tannerite is still on the market.  There is a canadian company that was displaying at SHOT awhile that had a "Tannerite" like product where you could combine to get the level of bang desired.  They were marketing towards Hollywood, but secondary uses seemed pretty obvious.



Thundershot by Gryphon Energetics or KABOOM by no clue.  lol

Gryphon Energetics – Manufacturers of THUNDERSHOT®, the World's Most Powerful Exploding Targets.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Oct 31, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587110191715307523
Supposedly carry 18 former officers, currently employed by Wagner.


----------



## Blizzard (Oct 31, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587110191715307523
> Supposedly carry 18 former officers, currently employed by Wagner.


Initially a good job by the Soviet pilot to "fly the airplane" and move away from the threat but he should've set down in the field before the treeline. Never should've tried to clear it. Not sad about the loss of any Wagner.


----------



## AWP (Oct 31, 2022)

Just chunking along in broad daylight high enough where everyone can see you, but too low to maneuver. They looked slow, but that could be an optical effect. Regardless, they pushed their luck after the hit and paid for it, but maybe they knew setting down that close to the Ukrainians was a death sentence.


----------



## Kraut783 (Oct 31, 2022)

Damn....that Mi-8 stayed in the air a lot longer than I would have thought...tough bird.


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## Gordus (Nov 1, 2022)

5 SPHs and 2 trucks in total. I bet a lot of countries want the HIMARS.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586972048370421761
Did you see how proud Putin looked in Sochi, when he proclaimed they could have done much worse, after the recent missile strikes against critical civilian infrastructure ? That's what we are dealing with.


----------



## pardus (Nov 1, 2022)

Gordus said:


> 5 SPHs and 2 trucks in total. I bet a lot of countries want the HIMARS.


That’s one thing that people who are upset about the cost of the war to the west don’t seem to appreciate, this war is a phenomenal weapons testing ground and showcasing just how awesome they are which is already causing other countries to purchase these weapons. 
It’s an all around win for the west, on multiple levels.


----------



## pardus (Nov 1, 2022)

Here you can see for yourself which countries trade with Russia while they invade and slaughter another country. 
This is beyond shameful, Humanity sucks. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587265999245565953


----------



## pardus (Nov 1, 2022)

That’s some impressive airtime!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587216834562072579


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## AWP (Nov 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> Here you can see for yourself which countries trade with Russia while they invade and slaughter another country.
> This is beyond shameful, Humanity sucks.
> 
> 
> ...



Some nations are following Einstein's quote: “In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.” Countries like that are why sanctions aren't as effective as we'd hoped. Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan surprise me though.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> Here you can see for yourself which countries trade with Russia while they invade and slaughter another country.
> This is beyond shameful, Humanity sucks.
> 
> 
> ...


I don't completely understand this meme.  I assume that these are countries' trading with Russia, but it's not entirely clear from the verbiage.  The way it is written, and who it's attributed to, could indicate that this is trade with Ukraine.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 1, 2022)

AWP said:


> Some nations are following Einstein's quote: “In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.” Countries like that are why sanctions aren't as effective as we'd hoped. Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan surprise me though.


"Self-interest is a helluva drug."


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> Here you can see for yourself which countries trade with Russia while they invade and slaughter another country.
> This is beyond shameful, Humanity sucks.



This reminds me of something a guy on YouTube I watch says a lot of the time.

In the global game of Politics, ethics and morality are almost going to take a backseat to economics and power dynamics. 

It doesn't make it right from our level, but it's the way we've allowed/encouraged our Governments to work.



Marauder06 said:


> I don't completely understand this meme.  I assume that these are countries' trading with Russia, but it's not entirely clear from the verbiage.  The way it is written, and who it's attributed to, could indicate that this is trade with Ukraine.



As best I can see it seems to be total trading volume between those countries and Russia. I don't have the NYT, so I can't see a better look at what those numbers actually are. 

Like, a 340% increase in volume with India could be equal to or less than a 3% decrease with Germany, depending on what those trade numbers look like monetarily


----------



## pardus (Nov 1, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I don't completely understand this meme.  I assume that these are countries' trading with Russia, but it's not entirely clear from the verbiage.  The way it is written, and who it's attributed to, could indicate that this is trade with Ukraine.


That one wasn’t very clear, but It is with Russia.


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## Kaldak (Nov 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> That one wasn’t very clear, but It is with Russia.
> 
> View attachment 40884



I also don't have NYT subscription. I don't see a cited source. Does the article list one?


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## pardus (Nov 1, 2022)

Kaldak said:


> I also don't have NYT subscription. I don't see a cited source. Does the article list one?


I don’t have a subscription either. 
This was a 5 second google search…

How Russia Pays for War


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 1, 2022)

pardus said:


> That one wasn’t very clear, but It is with Russia.
> 
> View attachment 40884


Sadly, this makes it clear that despite the decrease in trade it is not enough to offset the increased trade.


----------



## Jaknight (Nov 1, 2022)

I wonder if Moscow is giving Tehran Marching orders 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587581621942845441


----------



## Gordus (Nov 1, 2022)

This will prob give the Ukrainians greater reach and the Russians further headaches.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587521114967871488


----------



## Dame (Nov 1, 2022)

Gordus said:


> This will prob give the Ukrainians greater reach and the Russians further headaches.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587521114967871488


Just needs a "fricken LAZER" attached to its head.

Laser Weapons Key In Next Generation Air Dominance Program From The Start


----------



## Gordus (Nov 2, 2022)

Dame said:


> Just needs a "fricken LAZER" attached to its head.
> View attachment 40886
> Laser Weapons Key In Next Generation Air Dominance Program From The Start



The Ukrainian who comes up with the crazy drone designs:






Wouldn‘t even surprise me, after all they’ve accomplished.


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## pardus (Nov 2, 2022)

US Military now doing on-site weapons inspections in Ukraine


----------



## pardus (Nov 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587661132927733760


----------



## pardus (Nov 2, 2022)

German politicians criticise Switzerland over Ukraine ammo veto


----------



## pardus (Nov 2, 2022)

This is quite remarkable…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587490089189376000


----------



## AWP (Nov 2, 2022)

Belgium and the Netherlands: gives aid to the Ukraine.

Also Belgium and the Netherlands: increases trade with Russia, undermining economic sanctions.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 2, 2022)

pardus said:


> This is quite remarkable…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587490089189376000



I'm not surprised to see that POL/LITH/EST/LAT have given the most aid (proportionally) but I an surprised to see that the amounts given by EST/LAT are so high. They must be betting that Putin being defeated in Ukraine will prevent it from spilling over their borders.


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## Gordus (Nov 2, 2022)

The Black Sea Fleet is probably traumatized at this point. Having nightmares of Ukrainian drones and saboteurs.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587790019766403074


----------



## Devildoc (Nov 2, 2022)

Maybe they thought if they attacked Turkish ships, Turkey's response may not be so measured and they would kick off World War 3.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 2, 2022)

Although the Turkish trade with Russia has increased. We should probably weigh that against their military aid tha they're giving to Ukraine in Drones and Frigates!


----------



## Gordus (Nov 3, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Maybe they thought if they attacked Turkish ships, Turkey's response may not be so measured and they would kick off World War 3.



I think they are also simply afraid to trigger open war with NATO, if they attacked one of their member states. May not happen because everyone fears WW3. But still not beyond the realms of possibility.


----------



## pardus (Nov 3, 2022)

AWP said:


> Belgium and the Netherlands: gives aid to the Ukraine.
> 
> Also Belgium and the Netherlands: increases trade with Russia, undermining economic sanctions.





ThunderHorse said:


> Although the Turkish trade with Russia has increased. We should probably weigh that against their military aid tha they're giving to Ukraine in Drones and Frigates!


It’s an interesting situation for sure. I’m sure those governments have their own justifications for this, I’d like to hear them.


----------



## pardus (Nov 3, 2022)

Gordus said:


> The Black Sea Fleet is probably traumatized at this point. Having nightmares of Ukrainian drones and saboteurs.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587790019766403074


Yes I have no doubt about that. The Black Sea Fleet was on my dream hit list since the start. 
@Gordus just be careful with info from chuck pfarrer, he’s been caught out several times posting inaccurate info, I would double check everything he posts, I ended up blocking him, but that’s just me.


----------



## pardus (Nov 3, 2022)

Loosing 40 vehicles a day, that’s roughly  10,000 vehicles since the last invasion in February. Crazy, unsustainable numbers.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588092531459428352

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588097530436505600


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Nov 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> It’s an interesting situation for sure. I’m sure those governments have their own justifications for this, I’d like to hear them.


They need the energy and fertilizer inputs the Russians produce. Otherwise their people starve or economies fracture. In the case of India, they're like amoral bargain hunters snapping up any natural resources they can, cause they have huge resource hungry populations. Same with Turkey.

China needs anything and everything it can get. Brazil really needs the fertilizer inputs, else they go from being an agricultural exporter to famine.


----------



## pardus (Nov 3, 2022)

R.Caerbannog said:


> They need the energy and fertilizer inputs the Russians produce. Otherwise their people starve or economies fracture. In the case of India, they're like amoral bargain hunters snapping up any natural resources they can, cause they have huge resource hungry populations. Same with Turkey.
> 
> China needs anything and everything it can get. Brazil really needs the fertilizer inputs, else they go from being an agricultural exporter to famine.


Do they NEED or want to get it from Russia? I understand that Russia is a vital supplier of  Fertilizer but are there alternative suppliers? The energy supply from Russia situation went from vital to unnecessary in fairly short order, with some possible exceptions. I’m sure there are countries that need the goods and/or a cheaper price than elsewhere but some are openly supporting Russia which is unacceptable. The west should also help financially for countries that need help purchasing more expensive goods, this is the opportune time to make an investment into democracy that will help everyone long term.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Nov 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Do they NEED or want to get it from Russia? I understand that Russia is a vital supplier of  Fertilizer but are there alternative suppliers? The energy supply from Russia situation went from vital to unnecessary in fairly short order, with some possible exceptions. I’m sure there are countries that need the goods and/or a cheaper price than elsewhere but some are openly supporting Russia which is unacceptable. The west should also help financially for countries that need help purchasing more expensive goods, this is the opportune time to make an investment into democracy that will help everyone long term.


Places like Brazil's agriculture model won't make it without those imports ( I don't even wanna think about Africa). Also, there really aren't alternative suppliers and not all fertilizers / agricultural inputs are the same. Some are made via the Haber Process (nitrogen), and some are mined (potassium salts and phosphorous). We also have to keep in mind that these are raw natural resources.

Haber process takes up a lot of energy. Nat gas prices have made the manufacture of those nitrogen ag inputs not financially viable. Anything mined needs to have the infrastructure put in place to mine and transport it. All of which is gonna take time we don't have.

Places like India and Turkey are more want and it helps them stockpile against the coming shortages. Also keep in mind India doesn't care about anyone else, hell they treat their countrymen with disdain. Turkey is a future enemy. China... well, China is an asshole.

Regarding investment, some western countries are gonna be struggling to keep the lights on or are dealing with their own shortages. The US market is gonna take care of itself, while the other major players are mainly assholes or enemies. That and the resources have to come from somewhere. Which for Europe means going back to Africa and all the shenanigans that entails.

I can see the west maybe helping Belgium and Spain. I can see us helping Japan and the UK. That said, things have yet to get bad. Russia is still producing natural resources, after this winter I'm curious to see how things go.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Yes I have no doubt about that. The Black Sea Fleet was on my dream hit list since the start.
> @Gordus just be careful with info from chuck pfarrer, he’s been caught out several times posting inaccurate info, I would double check everything he posts, I ended up blocking him, but that’s just me.



Thanks for the heads up pardus. I'll keep that in mind.

-

Was curious and did some quick ( rough ) math on the Russian documented vehicle ( total not just damaged ) losses according to current Oryx data.

Most notable losses are:

1359 tanks, including  788 T-72, 313 T-80 and  29 T-90.

If IIS 22 is correct, that is nearly 10% of the T-80 active and stored fleet combined. The vast majority of active T-80 tanks were thus taken out, also over 1/4 of active T-72s.
In theory, Russia has several hundred more T-90s, several thousand more T-80s and T-72s, it could throw at Ukraine. But those are just numbers and I don't think they want to waste so much of their, especialy more modern equipment, in such a localized conflict. When there are other actors, like China and NATO to be concerned about from their POV.

1268 IFVs, including 157 BMD-2, 56 BMD-4, +211 BMP-1, +593 BMP-2 and 175 BMP-3.

That would be nearly 1/3 of active BMP-2s. But like with T-72s, they allegedly have a stupid large number of BMPs and BMDs in an unknown state, stored away as reserves.

466 APCs, including 63 BTR-D, 124 BTR-80 and 319 BTR-82.

Notable here also, that BMD-2/4s and BTR-Ds are used only by Russian airborne troops. It seems they took a beating in the first few months.

647 vehicles titled as 'AFV' by Oryx. Mostly armored multi-role vehicles like the MT-LB, mainly logistics.

220 ( battery ) command & ( observation ) communications vehicles, also 16 radars.
Plus 251 SPHs and 148 MRLs.

60 fighter aircraft and 39 gunships.

1 guided missile cruiser.

The loss of many hundreds of trucks and other soft utility vehicles ( over 1800 vics ) on top of strikes against bridges, railroads, oil / munition depots and trains ( both in Ukraine and Russia/Russian occupied territory ), must have also heavily impaired Russian logistics.


----------



## AWP (Nov 3, 2022)

I'm dumb (and waiting for a weekly Teams call with people I don't like), so I did more digging on the Russian OOB. I drew upon a couple of resources:

https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2017/Spring/ARMOR Spring 2017 edition.pdf (A fantastic article starts on page 9)

Russian Army operates around 170 battalion tactical groups — defense chief

If you have 170-ish Battalion Tactical Groups (I'll round up to an even 180) and each group has one tank company of 10 tanks each, that leaves us with 1800 tanks necessary for the ENTIRE Russian army. I think I've posted, or others have, that the Russians possess about 2000 active tanks with another 6000-8000 in reserve. If you have 1800 tied up in BTG's then the 2000 number sounds about right.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

That puts Russia at 1306 destroyed or captured tanks. Assuming 2000 mission capable tanks at the beginning of the war (likely not that number, but we need a rough starting point) that's 65% of Russia's active tank force! Even counting for units pulled from storage, refurbed, and sent to the front that's...50 percent, 45, 40, 55...a shit ton of their active force.

If you assume 10,000 tanks in various stages of readiness for the entire country, that's 13 percent of its total force.

Imagine a world in which the US lost 1306 tanks. 1306 is 326 US tank platoons (a US tank platoon is 4, right?). If a US armor company is 14 tanks that's 93 companies.   

Those are 1942 losses for the Russians. (Roughly 46 percent)


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 3, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm dumb (and waiting for a weekly Teams call with people I don't like), so I did more digging on the Russian OOB. I drew upon a couple of resources:
> 
> https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2017/Spring/ARMOR Spring 2017 edition.pdf (A fantastic article starts on page 9)
> 
> ...


Ask the Marine Corps how it feels to lose all your tanks.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 3, 2022)

AWP said:


> I'm dumb (and waiting for a weekly Teams call with people I don't like), so I did more digging on the Russian OOB. I drew upon a couple of resources:
> 
> https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2017/Spring/ARMOR Spring 2017 edition.pdf (A fantastic article starts on page 9)
> 
> ...



I was thinking the same. Those feel like WW scale losses. Crazy amount of material getting wrecked within months.

Nice, thanks for sharing. I'll go with your numbers and IISS. In 21 for example, they claimed the Russians had over 10,200 mostly T-72s and T-80s, plus about 200 T-90s, in storage. Russian sources on the other hand seem to always double those figures and I suspect those are just 'slightly' inflated, to intimidate.


----------



## AWP (Nov 3, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I was thinking the same. Those feel like WW scale losses. Crazy amount of material getting wrecked within months.
> 
> Nice, thanks for sharing. I'll go with your numbers and IISS. In 21 for example, they claimed the Russians had over 10,200 mostly T-72s and T-80s, plus about 200 T-90s, in storage. Russian sources on the other hand seem to always double those figures and I suspect those are just 'slightly' inflated, to intimidate.



I would not be surprised if they had less than 10k at the start. If you take that number, whatever it may be, then Russia’s defense situation is dire which explain Russia’s nuclear posturing.

Putin’s worried he can’t defend Russia from external or even internal threats.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 3, 2022)

pardus said:


> Do they NEED or want to get it from Russia? I understand that Russia is a vital supplier of  Fertilizer but are there alternative suppliers? The energy supply from Russia situation went from vital to unnecessary in fairly short order, with some possible exceptions. I’m sure there are countries that need the goods and/or a cheaper price than elsewhere but some are openly supporting Russia which is unacceptable. The west should also help financially for countries that need help purchasing more expensive goods, this is the opportune time to make an investment into democracy that will help everyone long term.


Worldwide shortage, Ukraine, Russia and China are the leading exporters.  China has throttled exports because they need it.  Ukraine supply is effectively destroyed, unavailable.  That leaves Russia.

Global economy.  

FWIW- I had an ACSC class where the guest speaker said wars would become a thing of the past because of the global economy and multi-national corporations shutting governments down if they get too aggressive.

Made some sense then, but obviously did not age well.


----------



## Jaknight (Nov 3, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I was thinking the same. Those feel like WW scale losses. Crazy amount of material getting wrecked within months.
> 
> Nice, thanks for sharing. I'll go with your numbers and IISS. In 21 for example, they claimed the Russians had over 10,200 mostly T-72s and T-80s, plus about 200 T-90s, in storage. Russian sources on the other hand seem to always double those figures and I suspect those are just 'slightly' inflated, to intimidate.


I have read that one of the reasons for the staggering losses in World War 1 is the combination of old tactics with new and better weaponry. I wonder if the same applies here and eventually tactics will  help offset the losses or is this going to be standard for modern day nations going to war.


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## Devildoc (Nov 3, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> FWIW- I had an ACSC class where the guest speaker said wars would become a thing of the past because of the global economy and multi-national corporations shutting governments down if they get too aggressive.
> 
> Made some sense then, but obviously did not age well.



My mother had a cousin, he was a 3-war Marine: WW2, Korea, VN, retired E9.  I loved his stories.  He said he was furious when he was sent to Korea, not because he had to go to war, but because everyone had been told after Hiroshima and Nagasaki that wars would become a thing of the past.  To quote you, "made some sense then, but obviously did not age well."


----------



## Devildoc (Nov 3, 2022)

Some good analysis, and some..."interesting"...analysis:

Vladimir Putin's failed strategy


----------



## Steve1839 (Nov 3, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> FWIW- I had an ACSC class where the guest speaker said wars would become a thing of the past because of the global economy and multi-national corporations shutting governments down if they get too aggressive.


When I was in the FA39 (now 37, 38?, nee FAO) program, I posited that the US should be independent in regards to the energy sources that fueled our economy and independent in our food supplies. The political science profs that ran the program responded as if I was advocating child abuse and drowning puppies. Interdependence was the key to a peaceful world, they said. Yeah, that shit worked out just fine...


----------



## Muppet (Nov 3, 2022)

Ooops.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 3, 2022)

I don't think the Russian SOF were nearly as effective as the ANSOF.  But the forces supporting both seem to have been relatively similar in how shitty they are.  (Sorry if you trained ANA, you did your best they just sucked as people) The difference of course being one was fighting an insurgency and one was fighting a war of aggression.  But I think you could do a case study on both, and possibly even look at how degraded US SOF got due to their high op-tempo.  Rather than create more say Ranger Battalions or a whole other regiment we created more SEAL Squadrons and more SF Battalions.  But used them pretty often in the same exact way as we would a Ranger Battalion as it related to commando level tasks for elite infantry formations. Early on in both Iraq and Afghanistan we had incredible opt-tempo for SOCOM that made no sense.  

We needed more elite infantry formations that we could throw around.  Sorry 82nd and 173rd, not you, but maybe in a different timeline. 

But the reason I'm bringing this up, ANSOF Commando formations is what created a lot of the early successes of the ANA when they were "alone".  But because the supporting infantry formations were trash or died in place (this is exaggeration, we know what the casualty rate was of ANA and gosh the life expectancy was similar to a Marine 2nd LT in Vietnam). And there were just more Taliban. Who somehow, were better trained and better funded by our adversaries.  But thems the breaks.  But you're seeing it with the Russians, they wasted whole regiments of their elite formations early on in the war to attempt to capture Kiev. They took a lot of ground.  Had a lot of success, much like ANSOF did.  But Putin literally sent all of his elite formations whether they were Paras, Commandos, Tankers in a blitzkrieg in hopes he'd seize the capitol and the folks with dual passports would all be like the idiots in Donetsk and become Russo Simps. Well, bud. Wars of Survival tend to do one thing for those who have time.  And like us in Afghanistan, clock is ticking on Putin.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I don't think the Russian SOF were nearly as effective as the ANSOF.  But the forces supporting both seem to have been relatively similar in how shitty they are.  (Sorry if you trained ANA, you did your best they just sucked as people) The difference of course being one was fighting an insurgency and one was fighting a war of aggression.  But I think you could do a case study on both, and possibly even look at how degraded US SOF got due to their high op-tempo.  Rather than create more say Ranger Battalions or a whole other regiment we created more SEAL Squadrons and more SF Battalions.  But used them pretty often in the same exact way as we would a Ranger Battalion as it related to commando level tasks for elite infantry formations. Early on in both Iraq and Afghanistan we had incredible opt-tempo for SOCOM that made no sense.
> 
> We needed more elite infantry formations that we could throw around.  Sorry 82nd and 173rd, not you, but maybe in a different timeline.
> 
> But the reason I'm bringing this up, ANSOF Commando formations is what created a lot of the early successes of the ANA when they were "alone".  But because the supporting infantry formations were trash or died in place (this is exaggeration, we know what the casualty rate was of ANA and gosh the life expectancy was similar to a Marine 2nd LT in Vietnam). And there were just more Taliban. Who somehow, were better trained and better funded by our adversaries.  But thems the breaks.  But you're seeing it with the Russians, they wasted whole regiments of their elite formations early on in the war to attempt to capture Kiev. They took a lot of ground.  Had a lot of success, much like ANSOF did.  But Putin literally sent all of his elite formations whether they were Paras, Commandos, Tankers in a blitzkrieg in hopes he'd seize the capitol and the folks with dual passports would all be like the idiots in Donetsk and become Russo Simps. Well, bud. Wars of Survival tend to do one thing for those who have time.  And like us in Afghanistan, clock is ticking on Putin.


Your post raises an interesting question: How much of the Soviet's SOF have been burned through?  Looking at the jawdropping casualty statistics, I have to believe the percentage is pretty high.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Your post raises an interesting question: How much of the Soviet's SOF have been burned through?  Looking at the jawdropping casualty statistics, I have to believe the percentage is pretty high.



Well a whole regiment of VDV was blown out of the sky early in the war. So let's say upwards of 50%? As much as 70%?


----------



## Gordus (Nov 3, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Your post raises an interesting question: How much of the Soviet's SOF have been burned through?  Looking at the jawdropping casualty statistics, I have to believe the percentage is pretty high.



I don’t think there is any reliable figure specifically on SSO losses ( yet ) and may never be one. Someone, prob CAST or the Poles, will most likely publish a piece about their involvement and role. Though I take CAST analysis with a grain of salt.

There is however this:

Russia Lost 900 ‘Elite’ Soldiers in Ukraine Fighting — Report  - The Moscow Times



> At least 337 marines have been killed since the start of the invasion on Feb. 24, while the National Guard’s special forces and riot police lost 245 troops, Russia’s military intelligence lost 151 soldiers, elite paratrooper units saw 144 members killed and the Federal Security Service (FSB) and Federal Guards Service (FSO) together suffered 20 deaths, according to the BBC. Many of the dead were officers.
> 
> In addition, at least 67 combat pilots, including navigators and mechanics, have been killed, according to the BBC.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 4, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588554287600533504


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 4, 2022)

^ Meant to add two observations:

1. Soviets apparently still haven't learned the need for infantry with armor

2. Not sure what the other tank was doing. It's main was pointed in the direction of the Ukrainian soldier but took no action. Already dead/abandoned? Seems to be the only logical explanation, although it appears intact and the main gun seems to move slightly in one of the close ups.  🤔


----------



## AWP (Nov 4, 2022)

Another crunchy doing crunchy stuff, sending a modern tank to hell because the latter didn't follow 80 year old tactics USED BY AND AGAINST HIS OWN COUNTRY.


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## pardus (Nov 4, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> 2. Not sure what the other tank was doing. It's main was pointed in the direction of the Ukrainian soldier but took no action. Already dead/abandoned? Seems to be the only logical explanation, although it appears intact and the main gun seems to move slightly in one of the close ups.  🤔


Unless the gunner happened to be looking through his sights at that exact moment it’s not surprising, You can’t see shit from inside an armored vehicle, hence why you need infantry in support.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 4, 2022)

This could and probably should be in the Syria thread, but "Russians"...  
So, for a lighter moment, leave it to a tanker crew - 'no intent' :
Air Force claims 'no intent by the pilots' to draw sky penis near Russian base in Syria


----------



## pardus (Nov 4, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588496566901690369


----------



## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

Should read former US Soldier. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588329767761223682


----------



## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588811860421509122


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## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588697303300177921

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588697312192495617


----------



## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588923038149795842


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## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589001897192476672
This is a very different war to what the west is now used too after so many years of military supremacy. We need to relearn this now before we have to do it when we are in the trenches. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588969867138715649


----------



## pardus (Nov 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588890878252580864


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## AWP (Nov 6, 2022)

In another "totally not WWII, we swear" moment:

Ukraine war: Putin allows former prisoners to be conscripted

Russia dangles freedom to prisoners if they fight in Ukraine. Many are taking the deadly gamble. | CNN



> President Vladimir Putin amended the legislation on calling up reservists to include men convicted of serious crimes who recently left prison.
> Former prisoners convicted of sex crimes against children or terrorism are still excluded from serving.


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## pardus (Nov 6, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589276128904380416
Very interesting if true…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588903539325427714


----------



## amlove21 (Nov 6, 2022)

All information and video/lessons are important. 

However, I am having a real hard time with the ‘this is the future of warfare; we need to pay attention before we are in a conflict like this’ narrative. 

My stance on Russia is known. If not for our $11B (or whatever the fr*ck it is now) in funding and weapons and foreign fighters, Ukraine would be speaking Russian. 

No one can do basic tactics- like infantry + armor. There‘s no effective stand-off weapons, no air, no naval fires or indirect. No one has anti-drone tech. No one has an IC infrastructure capable of war fighting functions and exquisite capability. 

It’s like an NFL team watching a Pop Warner game and wringing their hands in dismay about what happens if they ever have to play one another. It’s insane. 

DM me for the super inappropriate analogy I was gonna make instead of the above football analogy.


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 6, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> All information and video/lessons are important.
> 
> However, I am having a real hard time with the ‘this is the future of warfare; we need to pay attention before we are in a conflict like this’ narrative.
> 
> ...


I remain glad to see that a people are actually willing to fight for their own country for a change, instead of expecting us to do it for them.


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## amlove21 (Nov 6, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I remain glad to see that a people are actually willing to fight for their own country for a change, instead of expecting us to do it for them.


I agree here. People (non-specific) are mistaking bravery and a fighting spirit for tactical prowess, I think. I value patriotism and nationalism, resistance to tyranny, and the moral and physical courage it takes to engage in that fight. 

I think two things can be true at the same time- I respect the individuals fighting and dying as citizens of Ukraine (my thoughts on foreign fighters is a bit different) in this war; I also don’t think the Russians or Ukraine are true ‘peers’ in any sense. 

I respect the intent. As a practical evaluation of tactics and war fighting capability from both sides… lacking. 

Imagine the 82nd airborne replacing the Ukrainians. Or the Batts. Or any SOF. 

*Biden Voice* C’mon, man!


----------



## AWP (Nov 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> Very interesting if true…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588903539325427714



Yekaterinburg is...1200 or so miles as the crow flies to Kyiv. Yeah, interesting if true for several reasons.


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## Gordus (Nov 6, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> … No one has anti-drone tech.



They do seem to have it in some capacity. Russians use the "Harpoon" and also deploy static jamming devices. Ukrainians recently started to acquire similar anti-drone guns from Lithuania. Apparently they tried to get their hands on such tech before 24 February, but it was allegedly blocked by NATO. Now after the recent drone attacks, it was promised to them.

Ukraine to get anti-drone systems in coming days, NATO's Stoltenberg says

Hitting With Harpoons! Russia Confirms Using Harpoon Systems To Shoot Down Ukrainian Suicide Drones

Germany did recently start to send some newer stuff. Maybe they’ll give the Ukrainians a few of those anti-swarm revolver guns, if the drone madness further escalates. Ukraine is becoming a testing ground for these new weapons …


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## amlove21 (Nov 6, 2022)

@Gordus - we are speaking from different optics here. You’re googling; I’m speaking from experience. Not a shot at you, but an objective observation. And you’re talking about ‘possibly getting it’ or ‘almost having it’. That means ‘they don’t have it’. 

They have it ‘in some capacity’. In comparison to ours- it’s woefully underdeveloped or not present at all, and if it is, it’s not being employed effectively.


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## Gordus (Nov 6, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> @Gordus - we are speaking from different optics here. You’re googling; I’m speaking from experience. Not a shot at you, but an objective observation. And you’re talking about ‘possibly getting it’ or ‘almost having it’. That means ‘they don’t have it’.
> 
> They have it ‘in some capacity’. In comparison to ours- it’s woefully underdeveloped or not present at all, and if it is, it’s not being employed effectively.



That’s fair. Though it’s more a mix of research and remembering some earlier footage where Russian jamming devices were partially captured and destroyed. I get your point about their stuff being less refined or more rudimentary. 
Hopefully the Ukrainians will get the promised NATO assistance in that area.


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## pardus (Nov 6, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589234047641088006

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589359753225859073


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## AWP (Nov 6, 2022)

The Russians did plenty to our drones over Syria. The US is cheap and uses Ku-band uplinks, the same as your satellite TV or internet. Jam that and/or GPS (both done over Syria) and you degrade our UAV capabilities.


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## pardus (Nov 6, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> All information and video/lessons are important.
> 
> However, I am having a real hard time with the ‘this is the future of warfare; we need to pay attention before we are in a conflict like this’ narrative.
> 
> ...





amlove21 said:


> I agree here. People (non-specific) are mistaking bravery and a fighting spirit for tactical prowess, I think. I value patriotism and nationalism, resistance to tyranny, and the moral and physical courage it takes to engage in that fight.
> 
> I think two things can be true at the same time- I respect the individuals fighting and dying as citizens of Ukraine (my thoughts on foreign fighters is a bit different) in this war; I also don’t think the Russians or Ukraine are true ‘peers’ in any sense.
> 
> ...


I don't know where you are getting your intel from, but it's not accurate.
I don't know your Russia stance.
If you really think the US Military is ready for a near peer conflict, then good on your motivation, I think that is extraordinarily unlikely, we couldn't deal effectively with with a couple of insurgencies despite the resources thrown into that fight, we literally lost thousands of lives in the GWOT unnecessarily due to incompetence. Do I think we will win against China in a fight? Yes, but it will cost a LOT of lives, a lot of which could be avoided if we did the right thing, which we won't because pronouns are more of a priority, and generals are mot much more than political hacks.   
Yes there are some serious problems in the UKR military, and I have railed against them, are they peers to a NATO country? No, but they have shown the bottle to do something no NATO country has done since the 50s, so until NATO does that again, it's like a fat kid in his mom's basement telling everyone how he would be like totally kicking heads in. Ukraine had fuck all support when it stopped the Russian invasion, that was all them. Do they need western help to repel the Soviets from their borders? Yes, but Russia could never have won this without a total unrestricted war, which probably would have drawn Poland in at a minimum, so highly unlikely. 
What are your thoughts on foreign fighters?
UKR military is definitely lacking but they are learning and incorporating those lessons far faster than we would. 
The 82nd/batt/SOF wouldn't achieve much without the massive back up of the entire US military apparatus, put a battalion of them under sustained accurate artillery fire without that backup and you'd get the same result, do you even know one US military member who has been under sustained artillery fire? It's a very different thing to a firefight or kicking doors. GWOT was a playground.


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## AWP (Nov 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> do you even know one US military member who has been under sustained artillery fire?



We have one member/ former member who has. Haditha dam in 2003. Elements of Viking Hammer, northern Iraq. Both during invasion, probably others, but 19 years ago…


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## R.Caerbannog (Nov 7, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589001897192476672
> This is a very different war to what the west is now used too after so many years of military supremacy. We need to relearn this now before we have to do it when we are in the trenches.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588969867138715649


Yep. Drone technology and electronic warfare are about to the change face of warfare. Pair it with AI and better power systems and things are gonna get terrifying. Regarding the use of small drones, the stuff coming outta Ukraine is something me and the guys would philosophize about in the smoke pit. It's surreal as shit seeing it come to fruition. 

What really surprised me was how shitty Russia's EW arm is. Back around 2014-15 they captured some US drone jamming tech. It was all over the news. I wonder if they didn't sell it to China or some such nation, cause that tech should've bolstered their capabilities.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 7, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> I agree here. People (non-specific) are mistaking bravery and a fighting spirit for tactical prowess, I think. I value patriotism and nationalism, resistance to tyranny, and the moral and physical courage it takes to engage in that fight.
> 
> I think two things can be true at the same time- I respect the individuals fighting and dying as citizens of Ukraine (my thoughts on foreign fighters is a bit different) in this war; I also don’t think the Russians or Ukraine are true ‘peers’ in any sense.
> 
> ...



In regards to losing a war against a non-peer. *Cries in Afghanistan*


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## amlove21 (Nov 7, 2022)

pardus said:


> *I don't know where you are getting your intel from, but it's not accurate.*
> I don't know your Russia stance.
> If you really think the US Military is ready for a near peer conflict, then good on your motivation, I think that is extraordinarily unlikely, we couldn't deal effectively with with a couple of insurgencies despite the resources thrown into that fight, we literally lost thousands of lives in the GWOT unnecessarily due to incompetence. Do I think we will win against China in a fight? Yes, but it will cost a LOT of lives, a lot of which could be avoided if we did the right thing, which we won't because pronouns are more of a priority, and generals are mot much more than political hacks.
> Yes there are some serious problems in the UKR military, and I have railed against them, are they peers to a NATO country? No, but they have shown the bottle to do something no NATO country has done since the 50s, so until NATO does that again, it's like a fat kid in his mom's basement telling everyone how he would be like totally kicking heads in. Ukraine had fuck all support when it stopped the Russian invasion, that was all them. Do they need western help to repel the Soviets from their borders? Yes, but Russia could never have won this without a total unrestricted war, which probably would have drawn Poland in at a minimum, so highly unlikely.
> ...


Ok- I'll let the 2 shop know. 
- Stance on Russia is here in the thread, several posts.
- My thoughts on foreign fighters are robust, and private. 

Again- I think the very idea of "near peer" conflict has been completely misunderstood at this tactical level. Who we thought was a "peer" has been proven to be inaccurate, so I think we need a complete re-look on what our capabilities and strengths are, and then re-evaluate. 

I understand what you mean about insurgencies; no country has ever won a COIN conflict, by any measure of success. 

I disagree with a lot of what you wrote, but I think that's just different optics. Thanks for the engaging.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 7, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Ok- I'll let the 2 shop know.
> - Stance on Russia is here in the thread, several posts.
> - My thoughts on foreign fighters are robust, and private.
> 
> ...


Filipino American War says different! But that took a different style and very repressive response.


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## amlove21 (Nov 7, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Filipino American War says different! But that took a different style and very repressive response.


To quote my daughter- “accurate, but not interesting or needed.”

It hurts when she says it, so I get it.


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Ok- I'll let the 2 shop know.
> - Stance on Russia is here in the thread, several posts.
> - My thoughts on foreign fighters are robust, and private.
> 
> ...


Yeah, there are holes in their intel, a lot of which can be found in OSINT sources even, frankly I'm surprised.
I want to make it clear, I believe the US alone, and the west in general would perform spectacularly against Russia in a stand up fight, and probably do quiet well against China too, we have no equal. We are lacking experience at the moment (with near peer), and the poor performance in certain aspects of the fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq doesn't bode well, but I also believe that even with the inevitable mistakes to come, those would be overcome and we'd ultimately end up successful, because we have a great system that allows/encourages that.
As for COIN, I disagree with you, the British examples in Malaya and Oman show that, my original point was that COIN was performed poorly in the GWOT.


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589602084563079168


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> Yeah, there are holes in their intel, a lot of which can be found in OSINT sources even, frankly I'm surprised.
> I want to make it clear, I believe the US alone, and the west in general would perform spectacularly against Russia in a stand up fight, and probably do quiet well against China too, we have no equal. We are lacking experience at the moment (with near peer), and the poor performance in certain aspects of the fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq doesn't bode well, but I also believe that even with the inevitable mistakes to come, those would be overcome and we'd ultimately end up successful, because we have a great system that allows/encourages that.
> As for COIN, I disagree with you, the British examples in Malaya and Oman show that, my original point was that COIN was performed poorly in the GWOT.


I too believe that we would do pretty well in a near peer realm.

I think a lot of the issues that prevented us from having true success in Afghanistan are unique to a COIN operation. In a large scale war, you aren’t necessarily worrying about hearts and minds, so the kid gloves can come off a bit. I’m not saying have a grand old time, commit a war crime, but you have a little more freedom to get after it. Think of the Gulf War.


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589602084563079168


How did they get that into someone’s apartment?!


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589920837775560707


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589920837775560707


I know the Chechens enjoy castration. Being unfamiliar with the geography, who was the occupying force in that area?


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## AWP (Nov 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> How did they get that into someone’s apartment?!



Probably an elevator. I don’t see them dragging that up the stairs.


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> How did they get that into someone’s apartment?!


I'm assuming they dismantled them beforehand.


JedisonsDad said:


> I know the Chechens enjoy castration. Being unfamiliar with the geography, who was the occupying force in that area?


There were regular Russian troops, and Ukrainian separatist troops, one report of a single Chechcen, but I really don't details. I'm quite sure the Ukrainians know who was responsible though.


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590087764070268928


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 9, 2022)

Senior Russian-appointed Kherson official 'killed' - BBC News


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## pardus (Nov 9, 2022)

Russia is withdrawing its forces from the west bank of the Dnipro river. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512


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## BloodStripe (Nov 9, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> How did they get that into someone’s apartment?!


Every company with a component found in that should be called to Congress and talk supply chain.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 9, 2022)

pardus said:


> Russia is withdrawing its forces from the west bank of the Dnipro river.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512



Not surprised to see them do this. Wonder if they go scorched earth on bridges after all the troops are across, or keep some of them functional if they plan to push forward in the Spring.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 13, 2022)

For some reason Milley is saying we need a diplomatic solution...child please.


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Not surprised to see them do this. Wonder if they go scorched earth on bridges after all the troops are across, or keep some of them functional if they plan to push forward in the Spring.


So they went with classic Russian scorched earth, no surprise, they know they need time and space to manage the Ukrainian advance.


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591922706588508160


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591768061513957379


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

That’s some intense shit right there!
attacking a trench system with one squad/section is dubious to say the least, and I didn’t see a whole lot of tactics going on besides “Chaaaarge!” but they cleared the objective, so… 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591856488233967616


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> That’s some intense shit right there!
> attacking a trench system with one squad/section is dubious to say the least, and I didn’t see a whole lot of tactics going on besides “Chaaaarge!” but they cleared the objective, so…
> 
> 
> ...


And they just ran away from one BMP? What a joke!


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> And they just ran away from one BMP? What a joke!


Yeah, they had the weaponry to defeat that attack if they’d had the will to do so too. This is where that whole morale/conscription thing comes into play.
At this point I think if you marched units towards the RU lines while waiving a US/British/Nazi flag the Soviets would turn tail and run because they are so screwed up mentally.


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## AWP (Nov 13, 2022)

How long does this go on before Putin loses support of the army, or at least enough of it to remove him from office?


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

AWP said:


> How long does this go on before Putin loses support of the army, or at least enough of it to remove him from office?


There are more and more voices rising against Putin, both regular people and right wingers who want to do much worse to Ukraine and the west. 
Dugin is the father of the twat that was assassinated a wee while ago.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591181876815106048

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591308229333905409


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## Blizzard (Nov 13, 2022)

Seems that Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, is an emerging threat in Moscow:
As Russian Army Falters in Ukraine, Paramilitary Leader Close to Putin Flexes Power


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Seems that Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, is an emerging threat in Moscow:
> As Russian Army Falters in Ukraine, Paramilitary Leader Close to Putin Flexes Power


He is really taking a lot of liberties, he is forming units on Russian soil now, and that's on top of his own private army (in the truest sense of the word) which he's running internationally. It begs the question, is he too big to fail, or too big to live? I know what Stalin would've done.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 13, 2022)

pardus said:


> There are more and more voices rising against Putin, both regular people and right wingers who want to do much worse to Ukraine and the west.
> Dugin is the father of the twat that was assassinated a wee while ago.
> 
> 
> ...








Really long video about how lies destroy your Army.  The previous defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, told the truth. (He had previously served as a conscript in the Soviet Army in the 1980s)  He told the truth very often.  He began the professionalization of the NCO corps in the Russian Army and move to a larger volunteer force than the one they had.  Well apparently the truth telling wasn't liked by the Russian military establishment and I guess not by Putin either.  He now runs a company that builds helicopter engines.  Well in comes Shoigu, an epic politician. He never served in the Army, but likes to wear Army uniforms.  He basically wrecks all the reforms...and here we are.


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## Gordus (Nov 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> And they just ran away from one BMP? What a joke!



This is curious right. The BMP didn't even contribute to the fight and had it's back turned to them. I get running from an advancing GNL T-72 clad in reactive bricks. But this could have gone really poorly for the Ukrainians. I think what did it, was that they were caught completely off guard. Maybe nobody was manning the front trench and the Russians had no angle or view on the enemy, from their rear position. I guess the Ukrainians saw that via drone. All the Russians heard, was the sound of armor and Ukrainians right in front of them. Which probably caused the panic.


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## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

I just watched a video yesterday of Wagner personnel torturing a Syrian soldier to death with a sledgehammer and beheaded him with a knife, they then chopped his hands off with an e-tool before stringing him up by the ankles and setting fire to the remains. 
Wagner in just the last few days executed one of their own fighters with a sledgehammer after we was returned to them in a PW exchange, he supposedly told the Ukrainians that he wanted to join them and fight Putin. He was one of the prisoners Wagner recruited, he was a convicted murderer. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592172240669650945


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## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

If Putin is stupid enough to actually use a nuke (which I don’t believe he would) I think it would be the end of Russia, the world would crush Russia (not militarily) and at a minimum Putin would be taken out.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592181179138310145

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592185304189919232


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## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

So the Russian Siegfried line seems to have been constructed about as robustly as their  conscription plan…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592153855105826818


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## Gordus (Nov 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> I just watched a video yesterday of Wagner personnel torturing a Syrian soldier to death with a sledgehammer and beheaded him with a knife, they then chopped his hands off with an e-tool before stringing him up by the ankles and setting fire to the remains.
> Wagner in just the last few days executed one of their own fighters with a sledgehammer after we was returned to them in a PW exchange, he supposedly told the Ukrainians that he wanted to join them and fight Putin. He was one of the prisoners Wagner recruited, he was a convicted murderer.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592172240669650945



I don't understand how people can be so desensitized and make others suffer so much, for no real reason and not even be phased by their gut wrenching cries. Allegedly they've committing a lot of such murders in Syria. But the even more unsettling part about Ukraine is, that Wagnerites are evidently not the only ones executing people and in very gruesome ways.


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## AWP (Nov 14, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I don't understand how people can be so desensitized and make others suffer so much, for no real reason and not even be phased by their gut wrenching cries. Allegedly they've committing a lot of such murders in Syria. But the even more unsettling part about Ukraine is, that Wagnerites are evidently not the only ones executing people and in very gruesome ways.



The sky is the limit once you dehumanize a person or group of people.


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## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

One for the medics…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592263517008465920


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592185304189919232



So perhaps he needs to fire Milley who is going to the press saying we should negotiate.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> I just watched a video yesterday of Wagner personnel torturing a Syrian soldier to death with a sledgehammer and beheaded him with a knife, they then chopped his hands off with an e-tool before stringing him up by the ankles and setting fire to the remains.
> Wagner in just the last few days executed one of their own fighters with a sledgehammer after we was returned to them in a PW exchange, he supposedly told the Ukrainians that he wanted to join them and fight Putin. He was one of the prisoners Wagner recruited, he was a convicted murderer.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592172240669650945



I've seen the video regarding the Wagner mercenary. It's fucked up shit, but par for the course with Wagner.



pardus said:


> If Putin is stupid enough to actually use a nuke (which I don’t believe he would) I think it would be the end of Russia, the world would crush Russia (not militarily) and at a minimum Putin would be taken out.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592181179138310145
> ...



I'm going to disagree about Putin using a nuke. I think a nuke in relation to a Ukrainian advancement into Russia or "Russian territory" could easily result in him using one in a "defensive measure". It'd be very much in line with Putin's thinking to consider Ukrainian military pushing into the Donbas as "setting foot on Russian soil".

Other than that though, I think he'd use other options in the CBRN world first. Obviously I'm glad tthat they haven't, but it seems like something they'd have begin using as traditional military tactics aren't working for them.


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 14, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I don't understand how people can be so desensitized and make others suffer so much, for no real reason and not even be phased by their gut wrenching cries. Allegedly they've committing a lot of such murders in Syria. But the even more unsettling part about Ukraine is, that Wagnerites are evidently not the only ones executing people and in very gruesome ways.




Black Hearts: One Platoon's Descent into Madness in Iraq's Triangle of Death: Frederick, Jim, Snow, Corey M.: 9781452662404: Amazon.com: Books

If you read, its a verygood book to read on the subject and how leadership (or lack there of) directly plays into these types of situations.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 14, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Black Hearts: One Platoon's Descent into Madness in Iraq's Triangle of Death: Frederick, Jim, Snow, Corey M.: 9781452662404: Amazon.com: Books
> 
> If you read, its a verygood book to read on the subject and how leadership (or lack there of) directly plays into these types of situations.


I got to 2BCT 6 months after Green (the main guy) was sentenced for his crimes, and it was also 6 months before we deployed to Afghanistan.

I remember this story being brought up repeatedly as an example of why they (command elements) didn't want us to dehumanize the Afghans.
It's a book I always reccomend guys/gals read before deploying.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So perhaps he needs to fire Milley who is going to the press saying we should negotiate.


U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations

Well there you go, time to get the hashtag campaign going. #FireMilley


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## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations
> 
> Well there you go, time to get the hashtag campaign going. #FireMilley


He’s a total bitch, fuck that guy.


----------



## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592336340699729920


----------



## RackMaster (Nov 14, 2022)

Heard about him last week but not a name. 

RIP.


----------



## pardus (Nov 14, 2022)

In the words of the wise that were for-told from the Dope above, Die Motherfucker, Die Motherfucker Die. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592080399886614533


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 14, 2022)

pardus said:


> In the words of the wise that were for-told from the Dope above, Die Motherfucker, Die Motherfucker Die.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592080399886614533


I wonder if he got novichok’ed


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 14, 2022)

Prigozhin is the one that really needs to find an open window.  Then watch the implosion.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> The sky is the limit once you dehumanize a person or group of people.



Its the unhinged sadism, that's so unsettling. Despite crim. pychol. seminars and explanations, it will always remain very disturbing to what lenghts some will go when completely desensitized towards extreme violence like that. Really against people in general. Those guys don't seem to make any distinction. They are visibly enjoying themselves, torturing, executing and then burning a person they don't know, 2 minutes into a foreign country, they pledged to support. Wagnerties evidently take no issue in "judging" friend, innocent and foe alike. I suspect there is some serious criminal background and history involved.



Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Black Hearts: One Platoon's Descent into Madness in Iraq's Triangle of Death: Frederick, Jim, Snow, Corey M.: 9781452662404: Amazon.com: Books
> 
> If you read, its a verygood book to read on the subject and how leadership (or lack there of) directly plays into these types of situations.



Thanks for the recommendation @Diamondback 2/2 ! This is why I appreciate the forum.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> In the words of the wise that were for-told from the Dope above, Die Motherfucker, Die Motherfucker Die.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592080399886614533



Nah, he's still kicking and enjoying all the evil West stuff. Iphone, Apple Watch and Basquiat shirt.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592090073272549378


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

Wagner Group is specificaly recruiting convicted murderers, according to their fighters. Why am I not surprised ?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592198747794345984


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 15, 2022)

A Zambian was killed in Ukraine fighting for the Russians. He was imprisoned in Russia before being sent to Ukraine. 

Zambian dies while fighting in Russian ranks in Ukraine


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592517292797333505


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592227456018448384


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592150438505492480


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592150438505492480


Looks like he got 4.

Didn’t know where else to put this, but if you went to NTC and used an app, you’re probably not good.

Exclusive: Russian software disguised as American finds its way into U.S. Army, CDC apps


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Looks like he got 4.



Yeap, noticed that too. Looks like it.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592165273280430083


----------



## Muppet (Nov 15, 2022)

@racing_kitty 

What kind of mine was that and did this dude have balls of steel or was he stupid?


----------



## Devildoc (Nov 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592165273280430083



The way that looks is like they are impressing foreign visitors into the military whether they want to join or not; i.e., kidnapping.  They are fast-tracking foreign visitors who want to volunteer for the Russian military.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592150438505492480


On a similar note:
Ukraine claims a sniper took out a Russian soldier from 1.7 miles

If true, it is reportedly the 2nd longest combat kill by a sniper; the Canucks still hold the record.


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

This is potentially fucking huge if confirmed!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592580571993030656


----------



## RackMaster (Nov 15, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> On a similar note:
> Ukraine claims a sniper took out a Russian soldier from 1.7 miles
> 
> If true, it is reportedly the 2nd longest combat kill by a sniper; the Canucks still hold the record.



I'd like to know what he's using.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> This is potentially fucking huge if confirmed!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592580571993030656View attachment 40925
> ...


That's a butthole puckering event for NATO countries if accurate.

The Russians are so fucked with mass inaccurate fires that they're going to accidentally get us involved militarily.


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

Polish PM convenes 'urgent' meeting of defense committee


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 15, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592593237902036992
Well shit.


----------



## Devildoc (Nov 15, 2022)

We shot down an Iranian airliner; the Soviets shot down a Korean airliner without war.  I would hope they (and NATO) choose to not go to war over this.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 15, 2022)

pardus said:


> In the words of the wise that were for-told from the Dope above, Die Motherfucker, Die Motherfucker Die.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592080399886614533


He's 72, and IIRC the average life expectancy for a Russian Male is 72-73 years.  Nature takes it's course.


----------



## Muppet (Nov 15, 2022)

Well, fuck. Just a matter time now.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 15, 2022)

Incompetent fuckers.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 15, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> We shot down an Iranian airliner; the Soviets shot down a Korean airliner without war.  I would hope they (and NATO) choose to not go to war over this.


We could establish a "No Missile Zone" along Poland's border then use Patriots, NSAM's and Aircraft to enforce it.
Key is to not advertise which missiles we are shooting down, and which ones are UKAF kills or RU equipment failure.
This administration has a bunch of blabbermouths, so keeping it quiet is key.  Plus Milley will argue against action. 
We shall see which War Pigs come out.


----------



## Muppet (Nov 15, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> We could establish a "No Missile Zone" along Poland's border then use Patriots, NSAM's and Aircraft to enforce it.
> Key is to not advertise which missiles we are shooting down, and which ones are UKAF kills or RU equipment failure.
> This administration has a bunch of blabbermouths, so keeping it quiet is key.  Plus Milley will argue against action.
> We shall see which War Pigs come out.



Are war pigs different from Friday night slam pigs at Bragg or Benning? ;)


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

Footage from the impact site. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592603582536507392


----------



## Jaknight (Nov 15, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> We shot down an Iranian airliner; the Soviets shot down a Korean airliner without war.  I would hope they (and NATO) choose to not go to war over this.


Also wasn’t a pilot shot down during the Cuban missile crisis?


----------



## pardus (Nov 15, 2022)

Russia said it wasn’t them so we can all just forget about it now. Nothing to see here folks 🤡


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592608118206496768


----------



## Gordus (Nov 15, 2022)

Nah, I doubt that. They were prob stray missiles. I think ( and hope ! ) it would take something really serious like deliberate attacks and an invasion, for it to escalate into a war. They should be condemned and held accountable for casaulties though. RIP those who died because of those idiots.


----------



## AWP (Nov 15, 2022)

Nothing will happen over this minus some headlines and strong words.


----------



## AWP (Nov 15, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Also wasn’t a pilot shot down during the Cuban missile crisis?


Major Rudolf Andersen, a U-2 pilot if my memory is correct.


----------



## Muppet (Nov 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> Nothing will happen over this minus some headlines and strong words.



My tin foil kpot asks, will this divert eyes away from the Arizona abortion?


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 15, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Nah, I doubt that. They were prob stray missiles. I think ( and hope ! ) it would take something really serious like deliberate attacks and an invasion, for it to escalate into a war. They should be condemned and held accountable for casaulties though. RIP those who died because of those idiots.


Even if they weren't stray missiles, the entire world (all the countries that matter) are going to act like they were.  The other alternative, whether it was Russia, a false flag from Ukraine, or a third party terrorist organization, means Article 5.  And that means...


----------



## AWP (Nov 15, 2022)

Missiles hitting a farm and killing two peasants would rank as perhaps the dumbest false flag, or any other cause for war, in history. Anyone making this bigger than it is, frankly has deeper issues such as a hard on for war. That story reads like a Mad Lib and makes the justification for Iraq 2003 look sophisticated.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> Even if they weren't stray missiles, the entire world (all the countries that matter) are going to act like they were.  The other alternative, whether it was Russia, a false flag from Ukraine, or a third party terrorist organization, means Article 5.  And that means...


I just can't see Poland calling for Article 5 over this. Another round of strong sanctions and increased troop presence, maybe. 

Perhaps try and convince us to give them some weapon systems they've got their eyes on.


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 15, 2022)

I wouldn’t mind another NATO Article 5 medal taking its prestigious place in my collection (I think some box in my attic?), but I think at most maybe Article 4 will happen. Which kind of already has.

Edit: I’m a big fat phony, with NON-Article 5 NATO medals.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 15, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I just can't see Poland calling for Article 5 over this. Another round of strong sanctions and increased troop presence, maybe.
> 
> Perhaps try and convince us to give them some weapon systems they've got their eyes on.


What sanctions? Russia still has food and is trading with plenty of NATO partners.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 15, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I wouldn’t mind another NATO Article 5 medal taking its prestigious place in my collection (I think some box in my attic?), but I think at most maybe Article 4 will happen. Which kind of already has.


Which Art 5 ops were you on?


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 16, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Which Art 5 ops were you on?


Well, you got me. Did the lightest wave top reading, and turns out they were NON-Article 5 NATO medals. 

I apologize to the board, and more important the great nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for the flagrant stolen valor. I will turn in my free Applebees appetizer immediately.

In all honesty, they handed them out like street workers in Vegas, that I have no idea what I have. I know some have nothing, others have the bar device that says ISAF, some say Afghanistan. I know half of the citations were in French.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 16, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> *In all honesty, they handed them out like street workers in Vegas*, that I have no idea what I have. I know some have nothing, others have the bar device that says ISAF, some say Afghanistan. I know half of the citations were in French.



Apparently they've given out 14 NATO medals since 96. I only knew of the two for Afghanistan (one mission switched to another in 15/16) and the one for Iraq.


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 16, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Which Art 5 ops were you on?


Somehow we rated an Art 5 one for riding ships between the Straits of Gibraltar proving security for them back in 03.

Edit: Operation Active Endevor


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 16, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> Well, you got me. Did the lightest wave top reading, and turns out they were NON-Article 5 NATO medals.
> 
> I apologize to the board, and more important the great nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for the flagrant stolen valor. I will turn in my free Applebees appetizer immediately.
> 
> In all honesty, they handed them out like street workers in Vegas, that I have no idea what I have. I know some have nothing, others have the bar device that says ISAF, some say Afghanistan. I know half of the citations were in French.


Nothing personal.


Cookie_ said:


> Apparently they've given out 14 NATO medals since 96. I only knew of the two for Afghanistan (one mission switched to another in 15/16) and the one for Iraq.


You almost made my point.  Art 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to 9/11.
NATO is a cluster fuck, and we carry it; that said, we are the only nation to invoke the mutual defense clause.  Something "The Donald" needs to hear.


----------



## Gunz (Nov 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Major Rudolf Andersen, a U-2 pilot if my memory is correct.



The wreckage is in some fucking Commie museum in Havana.


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 16, 2022)

It’s looking like the bomb was actually a Ukrainian air defense missile.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Nov 16, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> It’s looking like the bomb was actually a Ukrainian air defense missile.


----------



## CQB (Nov 16, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> It’s looking like the bomb was actually a Ukrainian air defense missile.


There was an early report that there was incoming missiles from the Russian side & Ukraine counter battery fire caused the debris. The Russian denial was pretty firm IMO.


----------



## 757 (Nov 16, 2022)




----------



## Gordus (Nov 16, 2022)

Hopefully nobody was hit. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592752802803376128


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593218646565916674


----------



## Locksteady (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593218646565916674


If he keeps running that way, that man will have one hell of a 'Lone Survivor' story to sell.


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

These are the kind of people we are dealing with 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593042478235807744


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593218646565916674



I'm just blown away at their reactions to taking fire. Nobody hit the dirt? It took 3 of them being shot to even begin to move to cover? 

The lack of training is super apparent.


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

Even though there are still some denials from Ukraine it’s looking like it was possibly an S-300 launched by Ukraine to intercept Russian attacks. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593236589588918274

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592972459900567552

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592906681838866433

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592821995766394882


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

Most people have forgotten the incident, but this just happened today.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593245929293119489

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593245990718668803

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593252606599909377

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593167062666424320


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593267411628736513


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593277101003755521

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593277738462466051


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

Russia Left Behind a Trove of Classified Intelligence During its Retreat From Kherson - The Debrief


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> Russia Left Behind a Trove of Classified Intelligence During its Retreat From Kherson - The Debrief


A "trove" of Russian intel?  Most likely garbage tactical info that was probably obsolete the moment it was...

<reads article>



> SBU says amongst the boxes of abandoned documents is detailed information on agents who collaborated with Russia during Kherson’s occupation, including handwritten notes detailing “obligations” to provide confidential information to FSB.



  Oh damn. I stand corrected.

Then again, if I were the Russians, I'd plant all kinds of bullshit in my files.  Shit like senior members of Z's cabinet are in my pocket.  Or how we found the Americans' COVID-19 production labs.  Or how Hunter Biden killed Jeffrey Epstein.  Or something.


----------



## Gunz (Nov 17, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I'm just blown away at their reactions to taking fire. Nobody hit the dirt? It took 3 of them being shot to even begin to move to cover?
> 
> The lack of training is super apparent.



How much training does it take to learn GTF down? Russia must be scraping the bottom of the barrel.


----------



## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

So not ratified yet AFAIK, but a meaningful step nonetheless.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593309275971002368
That is one seriously motivated suicidal guy!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593120830908616704


----------



## AWP (Nov 17, 2022)

Used to be having information on Hillary was the quickest way to die…


----------



## Gunz (Nov 17, 2022)

What??? A hospital window wasn’t good enough for this guy?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> Most people have forgotten the incident, but this just happened today.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593245929293119489
> ...


Damn.


----------



## Kraut783 (Nov 17, 2022)

*" has been killed in his office with 5 bullets to the chest. He was heavily involved in Putin's mobilization efforts. Russia propaganda reports it was suicide"*

Sounds like a old mafia hit, "...he fell on a knife, six times..."

Of course....I worked a suicide in a CHU in Iraq where the guy used his SAW, lots of rounds....so, anything is possible.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> Most people have forgotten the incident, but this just happened today.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593245929293119489
> ...


I believe Ukraine was complicit in this event.


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 18, 2022)

This feels right, but I have not fact-checked it yet.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

Not really sure what to do with this info but it's kind of interesting:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593575715252817921
Also, we've had frequent mention of the Soviet KIA numbers here and how mind-boggling they are but the latest estimate I saw was ~100,000 KIA. It's only been 9 months.  I continue to find it fascinating for a conflict like this one.  Sadly, only 3,000 are reportedly Wagner.  Nonetheless, seems the old lady handing the Soviet soldier sunflower seeds was spot on.

Putting some additional, more personal context around those numbers, in the 20 years of OIF, OEF, and related operations, the US lost ~7,000+; not just KIA, but all deaths combined. With that, I'm guessing most, if not all, of us knew or had some personal connection to at least a couple of those losses. Just think about what that would look like if the number were 14x higher...and in less than a year.  That's the scale and it's incredible.

It's probably getting much easier to find one of those mail-order Russian brides.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

AWP said:


> Used to be having information on Hillary was the quickest way to die…


Seems to be their new national pastime. 

As a Soviet, if you're not yeeting yourself out a hospital window or off a nearby rooftop, evidently you're just hanging out waiting for someone to Julius Caesar you:
How Russian oligarchs are ‘MURDERING each other’ in bloody battle for power


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 18, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> This feels right, but I have not fact-checked it yet.
> 
> View attachment 40944


My concern with the spending in Ukraine is accountability of it. I understand the need to help them, but we can’t be an open checkbook to them. We were spending $300m a day in Afghanistan (crazy), and at the current spend rate, we are close to that in Ukraine. We simply can’t afford another Afghan war…


----------



## Jaknight (Nov 18, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Not really sure what to do with this info but it's kind of interesting:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593575715252817921
> Also, we've had frequent mention of the Soviet KIA numbers here and how mind-boggling they are but the latest estimate I saw was ~100,000 KIA. It's only been 9 months.  I continue to find it fascinating for a conflict like this one.  Sadly, only 3,000 are reportedly Wagner.  Nonetheless, seems the old lady handing the Soviet soldier sunflower seeds was spot on.
> ...


100k in less than a year? That’s insane and I have to wonder how much has Ukraine lost.  has to be as much or more right?


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 18, 2022)

Gunz said:


> How much training does it take to learn GTF down? Russia must be scraping the bottom of the barrel.



It doesn't take much training, but it does take some to get that reaction into muscle memory.

I remember doing checkpoint security on deployment one night and we started taking "sniper fire" (some local taking potshots at the berm).
I remember one female soldier attempting to walk out into the road to "check what the sound was", because she didn't know what incoming rounds sounded like.


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 18, 2022)




----------



## DA SWO (Nov 18, 2022)

I can't see how Afghanistan compares to the war in Ukraine.

Afghanistan was a low-mid level conflict.  Ukraine is mid-high level

Strategic weapons (aka nukes) are the only thing missing from the war in Ukraine.  Imagine tank v tank battles in Afghanistan, or if the Taliban had cruise missiles and reapers.


----------



## AWP (Nov 18, 2022)

On Nov. 3 I made a post where the Soviets were down 1306 tanks destroyed or captured. 15 days later that number is 1379. Every two days another tank company is destroyed which is the armor capability for 7 battalion task groups.


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

AWP said:


> On Nov. 3 I made a post where the Soviets were down 1306 tanks destroyed or captured. 15 days later that number is 1379. Every two days another tank company is destroyed which is the armor capability for 7 battalion task groups.


Definitely a war of attrition.  Using the old 3:1 force ratio for offensives, it certainly doesn't appear the Soviets are in a position to advance anywhere for awhile and they're not in complete control of any of the four regions Putin annexed.  Even if they had the numbers, they clearly don't have the experience.  Winter is coming.  

How much longer does Putin have and then what?


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 18, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Definitely a war of attrition.  Using the old 3:1 force ratio for offensives, it certainly doesn't appear the Soviets are in a position to advance anywhere for awhile and they're not in complete control of any of the four regions Putin annexed.  Even if they had the numbers, they clearly don't have the experience.  Winter is coming.
> 
> How much longer does Putin have and then what?


Watching the Ukraine strategy will be interesting.  Do they ignore Crimea and the two areas under Rebel control (pre Feb2022)? then go after those areas?  Do they retake everything except Crimea? Will Putin allow Crimea to fall?  

Putin huffs and puffs as long as the 3 areas are still under Russian control.  IMO the real danger occurs when those final three areas start falling.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 18, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> 100k in less than a year? That’s insane and I have to wonder how much has Ukraine lost.  has to be as much or more right?



I kinda doubt it's anything close to 100k KIA. That would mean, the total casualties run in the hundreds of thousands.
Personaly, I think Russia has easily lost more than 100.000 killed, wounded, sick, missing and captured at this point and those include their most combat ready or capable troops. I also believe Russian losses are still higher than Ukrainian. But at the same time I fear, they are not dramaticaly higher. The Ukrainians lost many people in Kherson and Donbas.

Austrian Col. Reisner made a very insightful video ( link ) about what Russian forces were dealing with in Donbas. We are talking defenses and trench systems that are several lines deep, supported by reserves on standby. Terrain and natural obstacles, smartly integrated into the Ukrainian defenses. Bastions and fortifications, similar to WW1, that were built and expanded, since 2014, in anticipation of further Russian incursions and an inevitable war. We have to bear that in mind.
It's not only because the UAF concentrated the bulk of their troops there, that forced the Russians to throw tens of thousands more bodies, including remnants of the failed Kyiv offensive, into that one theatre. They had to reach a decicive strenght difference, to achieve breakthroughs.

Combine that with terrible tactics. On the one hand, deception and flanking maneuvers were employed, which seemed to work very well.
On the other hand, they resorted heavily on using the old Soviet tactic of trying to turn fortified positions into a moon scape and then head on assault them with mechanized infantry. Which, almost every single time resulted in them losing a bunch of troops and heavy vehicles, to entrenched Ukrainian infantry with AT weapons. They do that repeatedly, until they realize it was of no use and then simply keep dropping bombs to win a war of attrition by fire support. Basicaly it seems that the Russians kept losing troops to costly assaults, while the outnumbered Ukrainians were mostly grinded down by artillery. I think the exact reverse was happening to the Ukrainians in their Kherson counteroffensive.


----------



## pardus (Nov 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593935870893195264


----------



## AWP (Nov 19, 2022)

Wow...They are stepping out their reach.


----------



## pardus (Nov 19, 2022)

Reports are starting to come come in of a gas explosion in/near St Petersburg. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593964993824825344


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 19, 2022)

pardus said:


> Reports are starting to come come in of a gas explosion in/near St Petersburg.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593964993824825344


Anything that happens will be attributed to Ukraine by the people (regardless of actual cause).  That is good as it scares the Russian populace.  Putin now has more issues on his plate.


----------



## pardus (Nov 19, 2022)

Geolocated. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594001436664373249


----------



## pardus (Nov 19, 2022)

Brrrr…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593763945667403776


----------



## pardus (Nov 19, 2022)

AWP said:


> On Nov. 3 I made a post where the Soviets were down 1306 tanks destroyed or captured. 15 days later that number is 1379. Every two days another tank company is destroyed which is the armor capability for 7 battalion task groups.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593714765150490628
Full list here…

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 19, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I can't see how Afghanistan compares to the war in Ukraine.
> 
> Afghanistan was a low-mid level conflict.  Ukraine is mid-high level
> 
> Strategic weapons (aka nukes) are the only thing missing from the war in Ukraine.  Imagine tank v tank battles in Afghanistan, or if the Taliban had cruise missiles and reapers.


Is this is reference to my comment?


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 19, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Is this is reference to my comment?


No. Post #2297

I agree with you on accountability of funds and materials and we can't fund all of Ukraine and rebuild the military.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 19, 2022)

Jeez. I get why the Ruskis are obsessed over Bakhmut, but they just keep hurling bodies ( link, link ) at it WW1/2 style, like nobodies business ...
Apparently the Wagnerites are paying a high toll there too.

Some material losses in the Bakhmut battle. One of Russias most advanced fighters among them.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593680587021484033

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593865871155306497
Reminds me of the first 2-3 months.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 19, 2022)

Could it be saboutage ? Maybe even Russian collaborators. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593995763272622083


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## Gordus (Nov 20, 2022)

More footage, showing how severe the situation is in Bakhmut. Both sides seemingly managed to destroy large columns of enemy reinforcements. Ukraine, several at this point.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594058662603292672

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594237346454683650

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594261806637191169


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## Gordus (Nov 20, 2022)

.A whole battery of Uragans got wiped by a HIMARS strike.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594074612735873024


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 20, 2022)

Don't want to fight?  To Gulag with Britney Griner you go!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594273899730305024


----------



## pardus (Nov 20, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594148602548342785


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 20, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Don't want to fight?  To Gulag with Britney Griner you go!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594273899730305024



Reminds me of basic training,  had a kid refuse to train, 1Sgt calls company formation and has the MP's haul the kid off. I am sure they took him down the street to 30th AG and start his separation... But kinda that "scare tactic" of you refuse you go to jail... I always kinda thought that shit was dumb, who the fuck wants to be in training or combat, with someone who doesn't truly want to be there. Scaring the dude who is on the fence into going through with it, is a liability down the road, IMHO. 

Anyway, just brought back an old memory...


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## Gordus (Nov 20, 2022)

Again.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594414138549231619

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594347569362132999


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## Gordus (Nov 21, 2022)

Funny how the host talks about acting like kids, but that man, who opposes their delusions, as naive as he may seem, appears to be the only adult in the room. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594529208650317824


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## Gordus (Nov 21, 2022)

Could remain froever testbed. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594305680206225408


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## Gordus (Nov 21, 2022)

This is just sad. It could have been an uneventful day for both sides. But one Russian decided to rather die for Putin. Really sucks for the others. RIP.  Seems that at least one Ukrainian was wounded.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594283958119849986


----------



## Andoni (Nov 21, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Funny how the host talks about acting like kids, but that man, who opposes their delusions, as naive as he may seem, appears to be the only adult in the room.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594529208650317824



Begs the question how often do adults cast off "adult naivete" as  "childish" while at the same time, lying, scheming, embellishing, extrapolating, manipulating- all inherently childish behaviors. It's so ironic


----------



## Jaknight (Nov 21, 2022)

Gordus said:


> Again.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594414138549231619
> ...


Question what is that stuff? Is it phosphorus?


----------



## pardus (Nov 21, 2022)

Gordus said:


> This is just sad. It could have been an uneventful day for both sides. But one Russian decided to rather die for Putin. Really sucks for the others. RIP.  Seems that at least one Ukrainian was wounded.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594283958119849986


CNN are pure filth. The video is pretty conclusive, a Russian pretended to surrender and then opened fire on the Ukrainians hitting at least one Soldier. There was naturally a firefight and the Russians were all KIA at the end of it. This is an example of what brainwashing can to people, maybe the Russian soldier thought he was going to be killed, they are being told they’ll be eaten by the Ukrainians if they surrender. It’s abundantly clear to everyone that Russians don’t follow any kind of rule of war so actions like this are not surprising. What a backwards shitty people.


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## Gordus (Nov 21, 2022)

pardus said:


> CNN are pure filth. The video is pretty conclusive, a Russian pretended to surrender and then opened fire on the Ukrainians hitting at least one Soldier. There was naturally a firefight and the Russians were all KIA at the end of it. This is an example of what brainwashing can to people, maybe the Russian soldier thought he was going to be killed, they are being told they’ll be eaten by the Ukrainians if they surrender. It’s abundantly clear to everyone that Russians don’t follow any kind of rule of war so actions like this are not surprising. What a backwards shitty people.



I get that pro-Russian media would try to spin this into an execution. But what the heck got into ome of the Western media outlets ... Smh.


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## Gordus (Nov 21, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Question what is that stuff? Is it phosphorus?



Comments suggest its thermite. Both are terrible.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 21, 2022)

pardus said:


> ... thought he was going to be killed, they are being told they’ll be eaten by the Ukrainians if they surrender...


I remember watching the inprocessing of a detainee in Afghanistan shortly after I took over the exploitation process with the Task Force.  Tough Afghan fighter.  Started crying when we ordered him to strip as part of his intake.  Very standard procedures to make sure they're not hiding anything, and to document any injuries or marks they have so they can't say how we abused them in captivity.

Turns out he and his comrades were told that the first thing the Americans would do after capturing someone is rape them.  He thought that it was about to go down.

Another detainee thought that 9/11 was the Taliban/Afghan response to the American invasion of Afghanistan.

"Ignorance is a helluva drug..."


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## AWP (Nov 21, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I get that pro-Russian media would try to spin this into an execution. *But what the heck got into ome of the Western media outlets* ... Smh.



Some of them aren't exactly pro-Western. If the media can't find a bad story, it will create one for the clicks and ads.


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## Totentanz (Nov 21, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I get that pro-Russian media would try to spin this into an execution. But what the heck got into ome of the Western media outlets ... Smh.



There isn't a lower bound to CNN's shitty behavior.


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 21, 2022)

What Russia has gained and lost so far in Ukraine, visualized — The Washington Post Getting closer to prewar controlled areas. Still a tough fight ahead. 

Also, the Army is now expediting the approval process of contracts to replace the weapon’s sent to Ukraine.


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## CQB (Nov 22, 2022)

pardus said:


> CNN are pure filth. The video is pretty conclusive, a Russian pretended to surrender and then opened fire on the Ukrainians hitting at least one Soldier. There was naturally a firefight and the Russians were all KIA at the end of it. This is an example of what brainwashing can to people, maybe the Russian soldier thought he was going to be killed, they are being told they’ll be eaten by the Ukrainians if they surrender. It’s abundantly clear to everyone that Russians don’t follow any kind of rule of war so actions like this are not surprising. What a backwards shitty people.


Similar occurred in the Falklands; some Argies wanted to surrender & were under a white flag. Two or three Brits came forward to accept & were killed. The remaining Brits fixed bayonets...


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## Gordus (Nov 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> Some of them aren't exactly pro-Western. If the media can't find a bad story, it will create one for the clicks and ads.



I know. But you'd expect more from pro-Western ones.



Totentanz said:


> There isn't a lower bound to CNN's shitty behavior.



I'm not even surprised there. CNN isn't even able to simply quote something, they literaly just played on their own channel.






Think of General Milley's statement what you like, but the man didn't exactly say anything controversial. All he suggested, was that the chances for Ukraine to push so hard militarily, that they regained control over Crimea any time soon, weren't high. So Ukraine should at least try to negotiate from a position of strenght, after another Russian defeat. Just for a chance, however slim, to try solve it politicaly.

CNN hosts on the other hand claims he said, it was unlikely for Ukraine to achieve an outright military victory against Russia. Not what he said. At all.


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## AWP (Nov 22, 2022)

Putin will never return Crimea to Ukraine. I know Ukrainian peace conditions include the peninsula's return, but they need to be a little realistic here and drop that demand.

I think Crimea should return to the Ukraine, but that hunk of land is such a big deal to Putin he won't let it go.


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## DA SWO (Nov 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> Putin will never return Crimea to Ukraine. I know Ukrainian peace conditions include the peninsula's return, but they need to be a little realistic here and drop that demand.
> 
> I think Crimea should return to the Ukraine, but that hunk of land is such a big deal to Putin he won't let it go.


I could see a "Korea type" ceasefire with Russia occupying Crimea while both sides "negotiate".


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## Gordus (Nov 22, 2022)

I really hope he won't have a choice in that matter, but to let go. How many times are they gonna get away with their holier than thou fascistoid land grabs. They went straight for the capital ... It will only continue, or become even worse. Their rhetoric and actions are very clear on that and what they want and it won't stop with Ukraine. Give them a finger voluntarily and they'll demand the whole hand. It's always been so.


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## AWP (Nov 22, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I really hope he won't have a choice in that matter, but to let go. How many times are they gonna get away with their holier than thou fascistoid land grabs. They went straight for the capital ... It will only continue, or become even worse. Their rhetoric and actions are very clear on that and what they want and it won't stop with Ukraine. Give them a finger voluntarily and they'll demand the whole hand. It's always been so.


I agree, but we need to be pragmatic. The Ukraine lacks the ability to drive to, and conquer, the Crimea. The two “separatist” areas? I see that happening, but not the Crimea.

I don’t like that answer because I think the Crimea belongs to Ukraine. I don’t like or agree with appeasement. Maybe the most likely scenario where the Ukraine takes back the peninsula is Putin’s overthrown and the new government cedes it to the Ukraine. A military solution is unlikely to impossible and Vlad will not give up that piece of land.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 22, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I really hope he won't have a choice in that matter, but to let go. How many times are they gonna get away with their holier than thou fascistoid land grabs. They went straight for the capital ... It will only continue, or become even worse. Their rhetoric and actions are very clear on that and what they want and it won't stop with Ukraine. Give them a finger voluntarily and they'll demand the whole hand. It's always been so.


Yep.  Appeasement never works.  It only encourages worse things later on.


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## Gordus (Nov 22, 2022)

AWP said:


> I don’t like that answer because I think the Crimea belongs to Ukraine. I don’t like or agree with appeasement.



I hear you AWP. My mind is with you on this, although a bit reluctantly. I'm just fed up with their bs and my heart really wants Ukraine to retake  it. I still hold on to the belief that it was was possible and they can pull it off. No basis, just pure gutt feeling. Maybe the Ukrainians will surprise us a few more times yet. I am more concerned about Putins response tbh, if it ever get's that far.


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## pardus (Nov 22, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> I remember watching the inprocessing of a detainee in Afghanistan shortly after I took over the exploitation process with the Task Force.  Tough Afghan fighter.  Started crying when we ordered him to strip as part of his intake.  Very standard procedures to make sure they're not hiding anything, and to document any injuries or marks they have so they can't say how we abused them in captivity.
> 
> Turns out he and his comrades were told that the first thing the Americans would do after capturing someone is rape them.  He thought that it was about to go down.
> 
> ...



I know the exact place you’re talking about I believe, I spent some time there myself. 


AWP said:


> I agree, but we need to be pragmatic. The Ukraine lacks the ability to drive to, and conquer, the Crimea. The two “separatist” areas? I see that happening, but not the Crimea.
> 
> I don’t like that answer because I think the Crimea belongs to Ukraine. I don’t like or agree with appeasement. Maybe the most likely scenario where the Ukraine takes back the peninsula is Putin’s overthrown and the new government cedes it to the Ukraine. A military solution is unlikely to impossible and Vlad will not give up that piece of land.


I agree with your thoughts regarding Putin and his views on Crimea, however IF Ukraine can cut the land bridge to Crimea (which I think is entirely plausible) then the problems of logistics for defending Crimea against an assault by Ukraine will rapidly overwhelm Russia’s already shitty logistical system. Russsia will have no choice but to abandon Crimea. I believe they’ll have a better chance to retain the eastern portions of the Donbas by simply parking masses of men and material there and digging in, but I’m not sure that it gives them much benefit beyond a buffer zone as I’m sure the industry there is probably quite degraded now and would be vulnerable going forward. 

To my mind the only way this war goes into some Cold War stand off is if the West blackmails Ukraine into a peace deal (threatening to cut off arms etc…) and forces us into another 50 year stare down. Knowing the US in particular with plenty of industrial military complex lobbying, I could totally see this happening, which is why Ukraine needs to go hard and fast to kick Russia out before things get bogged down. Just my .02c


Marauder06 said:


> Yep.  Appeasement never works.  It only encourages worse things later on.


100%


----------



## pardus (Nov 22, 2022)




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## ThunderHorse (Nov 22, 2022)

Gordus said:


> I know. But you'd expect more from pro-Western ones.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They could probably retake Crimea.  It would either be a blood bath or it will fall as easily as it did the first time.  Life in Donetsk isn't exactly a paradise under Separatist rule.  But Crimea is not a near objective either.  Retaking Kherson, Zaporizhzia, Luhansk Oblasts will take time.  Then they will retake the remainder of Donetsk.  If Ukraine is able to make significant gains before the deep winter starts it will be important for momentum.  Considering the Russian Army does not have winter clothing, Ukraine might attempt to push through the winter and if they can force several strong points to collapse it will get interesting.  One thing is for certain, that bridge needs to come down.


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## pardus (Nov 22, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595130495012306944


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 23, 2022)

Just a personal opinion, so I'm not going to support my views with astronomical amounts of google-fu.

The only way I see a peace deal, where Russia saves a little face and Ukraine can feel somewhat vindicated. Would be Russia withdraw to its borders, Crimea and the disputed eastern (border) become autonomous republics, and war reparations through some third actor. 

Russia isn't gonna go away and just lick their wounds, they spent way too much on their bridge to Crimea, on this whole war, etc. Just being taken down off the pedestal of being one of the baddest dudes on the block, infront of the world, is bad, booting them back into their borders and retaking Crimea and the eastern region, will be a boiling point, at which I believe we will see tactical nuclear weapons used by Russia.

Ukraine needs to win this, but in a manner where they can return to something.  "We won but we can't occupy our land" is foolish. They will need to be compensated for the war damages, costs in repelling the invasion and loss of life, etc. Ukraine need to get right with the idea of an autonomous republic in Crimea and the east. 

Is Russia gonna pay? Not directly,  but again some form of a third actor "we seized xyz funds from Russia" and gave it to Ukraine for damages caused, etc.

Ukraine needs to agree to becoming a neutral country,  with a treaty from Russia of no further military actions within their borders and or autonomous/disputed regions. But good luck with that, and Russia honoring such a treaty.

That would be a direction towards a peaceful ending. I don't foresee that happening, and would say that this will inevitably turn into a low level tactical nuclear war, leaving Ukraine completely fucked, and Russia becoming the whipping boy of this century. Russia uses nukes, Ukraine is fucked, the world responds, Russia becomes disarmed and spends half the century being the world's bitch, is most likely what will take place.

Putin really put himself, his country and their future in a bad corner.


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## ThunderHorse (Nov 23, 2022)

So, the past two days Putin has been executing a missile barrage of Ukraine to take out power and water.

Russia hits Ukraine with new missile strikes, knocking out power and water

Putin's missile strikes for whatever reason have also targeted Moldovan infrastructure?

Most Moldovan power supplies restored after Russian strikes on Ukraine

Figured out he's losing ground and all he has is long range weaponry.



Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Just a personal opinion, so I'm not going to support my views with astronomical amounts of google-fu.
> 
> The only way I see a peace deal, where Russia saves a little face and Ukraine can feel somewhat vindicated. Would be Russia withdraw to its borders, Crimea and the disputed eastern (border) become autonomous republics, and war reparations through some third actor.
> 
> ...




Ukraine was neutral, for a very long time. Heck it still was before the invasion. "Neutral" for Putin means pro-Russian.  And you mention the costs that Putin put Ukraine through.  Ukraine will never become "neutral" ever now. The things you say they should consider are things that are not negotiable.  Except Crimea, but with conditions.

Putin and his men will never pay for their crimes.  So you need to start there.  They committed mass genocide across Ukraine.  This is important in understanding where Ukraine will go from here.  They will modernize and become very pro-western.  The US SHOULD treat them like we have been with Poland and rotating full brigades to conduct mass training exercises near the border just like we have done with Poland.

There is no turning back and many of the things you advocate for "autonomous" republics would be akin to surrender for them.

We have not suffered a land invasion since 1812. We are not really people who should dictate to these people what they should do.  Russia is a clear enemy of ours and if it only costs us a quarter trillion to destroy their entire warmaking capability for the next 50 years, then so be it.  What it definitely will not cost is American blood.

@pardus probably has a lot of thoughts from having been on the front line amongst them.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 23, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> So, the past two days Putin has been executing a missile barrage of Ukraine to take out power and water.
> 
> Russia hits Ukraine with new missile strikes, knocking out power and water
> 
> ...



Detaching from the emotional state of things, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to become a nuclear waste land so that we can keep Russia pinned down for the next 50 years. Is it better for the world as a whole, sure, for Ukraine,  not so much.

I understand your POV, but what you are stating, leaves Ukraine fucked...period. Being pro-western in a country that you can barely occupy, is simply stupid.

But anyway, I was just giving an opinion. Not looking to spend hours defending it, or supporting it. At this point Russia has two options, go full retard and throw every last bit of military strength and hope they win, or go nuclear.  Either scenario are terrible for Ukraine. Its time to start seeing a bigger picture, avoiding catastrophic destruction and planning for the future of Ukraine, before there is no Ukraine.


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## pardus (Nov 23, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595398679975936000


----------



## pardus (Nov 23, 2022)




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## pardus (Nov 24, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595731169731280902.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595740942186708993

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595745767096033280

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595658066644590592


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## pardus (Nov 24, 2022)

Who is calling for a “peace deal” in Ukraine? Russian, Belarus, China and their ilk.
There will be no peace while Russia occupies Ukrainian land, the torture chambers and mass graves attest to that.
“It’s for Ukraine’s own good!” Really? Do you think Ukraine hasn’t thought about this, deeply, every single day since they were invaded? They are spilling their blood willingly for freedom.
What truly has me shaking my head is that patriotic freedom loving Americans, who with tears in their eyes have preached for decades, “it’s better to die free on your feet rather than live on your knees!” are now all for enslaving and murdering the Ukrainians, for their own good of course.
Well guess what, Ukrainians are prepared to die rather than be slaves.
The Ukrainians love the USA, Canada, and Europe, so as an American I’m ashamed when I hear Americans pushing appeasement in Ukraine, but should I be grateful because it shows a true democracy with diversity of views, just like the tens of thousands of Americans who supported the Nazi party? I guess I should. The fact that the most predominant voices of appeasement are from the right of the political spectrum, has me incredulous, we are after all talking about a fight against our arch enemy Russia, who the right vowed to destroy since around the time Gen Patton first voiced it in 1945. The right (and I want to be clear it’s not all right leaning people, by far) is joined on its path by the radical left, who denounce the Ukrainian Nazi govt (a Jewish lead government it has to be said, but let’s not get confused by facts), what strange bedfellows we have here, the American right, alongside communists, leftists, fascists, all pushing the same message. What happened America? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595539076165386241

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595736150047887360

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595654696789647360


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## pardus (Nov 24, 2022)

Forget the twitter comment, read what the Russians are saying, openly advocating war crimes, and that they were hoping for a good result for Russia from the American midterm elections. Russia our enemy is hoping for the right wing of American politics to come to their rescue and allow them to continue their slaughter and kidnapping of men women and children in Ukraine. 
Politics in this country disgust me. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595609859906756608


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2022)

First off nobody is advocating for a Russian occupied Ukraine. Russia needs to be back in their borders and should face devastating consequences. How that happens, I am not sure. 

Trying to turn this into a "the United States is fucked up b/c xyz" is dumb. Ukraine would've been walked right the fuck over if it wasn't for the military aid that we have given over the past 7 years. Training, weapons, equipment, etc. 

Ukraine agriculture is important to Europe, its important for national sovereignty to be respected and defended. War crimes and war damages need to be accounted for and Russia should absolutely be punished. 

However, if you think Ukrainians and their national territory should be completely destroyed to accomplish that, or are willing to see that happen, to beat the big red bear, I am sorry we simply disagree. Russias ace in the hole is nuclear, the world as a whole is not going to have a full on response to Russia, unless they use them, Russia knows this, so the only real way the rest of the world jumps into this war "officially" is if/when Ukraine gets nuked. At which point we have WW3 and a nuclear conflict in Europe. I am sorry, but I don't see how the fuck that is good for anyone on this planet, much less the Ukrainians. I am simply advocating for a more peaceful solution,  where Ukraine comes out holding their heads high and independent,  Russia goes home with their tail between their legs, and the world doesn't have a nuclear wasteland in Eastern Europe.

Idk, I guess that pretty un-American of me...🙄


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## DA SWO (Nov 24, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> First off nobody is advocating for a Russian occupied Ukraine. Russia needs to be back in their borders and should face devastating consequences. How that happens, I am not sure.
> 
> Trying to turn this into a "the United States is fucked up b/c xyz" is dumb. Ukraine would've been walked right the fuck over if it wasn't for the military aid that we have given over the past 7 years. Training, weapons, equipment, etc.
> 
> ...


I don't see Europe responding with nukes after a Russian Tactical Nuke strike.

NATO release procedurens are more restrictive then ours, and Biden isn't launching ICBM's after a strike on Ukraine.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> I don't see Europe responding with nukes after a Russian Tactical Nuke strike.
> 
> NATO release procedurens are more restrictive then ours, and Biden isn't launching ICBM's after a strike on Ukraine.


I agree, however, I do think we will 100% end up in direct armed conflict with Russia if they use nukes and if they are already whipped to a point of using nukes on Ukraine, why wouldn't they with a NATO member...?

But again, my point is why allow this shit to go that far? How about we stay with no nuclear weapons get used, Russia goes back within their borders with egg on their face, the world sanctions the fuck out of Russia and gives it to Ukraine to rebuild. 

Well atleast it's an idea, regardless how fairytale it maybe.😄


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 24, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Detaching from the emotional state of things, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to become a nuclear waste land so that we can keep Russia pinned down for the next 50 years. Is it better for the world as a whole, sure, for Ukraine,  not so much.
> 
> I understand your POV, but what you are stating, leaves Ukraine fucked...period. Being pro-western in a country that you can barely occupy, is simply stupid.
> 
> But anyway, I was just giving an opinion. Not looking to spend hours defending it, or supporting it. At this point Russia has two options, go full retard and throw every last bit of military strength and hope they win, or go nuclear.  Either scenario are terrible for Ukraine. Its time to start seeing a bigger picture, avoiding catastrophic destruction and planning for the future of Ukraine, before there is no Ukraine.



Not really for a tit for tat on this one, but neutrality didn't serve them in the past and it won't serve them in the future.  I think the only country where neutrality served well has been Switzerland. But even then they made concessions to the Nazis and only avoided invasion because of the gains we made in North Africa and the invasion of Italy. 

Ukraine gave up its Nukes on the promise of non-aggression from Russia. How bad of a decision was that?  If anything only having Nukes keeps you protected. 



pardus said:


> Forget the twitter comment, read what the Russians are saying, openly advocating war crimes, and that they were hoping for a good result for Russia from the American midterm elections. Russia our enemy is hoping for the right wing of American politics to come to their rescue and allow them to continue their slaughter and kidnapping of men women and children in Ukraine.
> Politics in this country disgust me.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595609859906756608


Generally the pro "Russian" politicians in the US don't exist. What are we talking one person who doesn't hold any credence? And don't give me any of the "Lauren Boebert or MTG said this" nonsense either.  Compared to the Squad they're barely catching up.  Yes that's a whataboutism but I ask we apply the same level of scrutiny on them...which hasn't been done as the media other than Fox is a liberal institution.  So those people are never held accountable. 

There was no anti-Ukraine congress ever coming into the fold.  So their pundits are pretty brainwashed. What many people are asking for time and again is that we fully deliver and account for aid before passing another aid bill. Or at least get to 80% of fulfillment.  Or just do better projections. However, I suppose the more war crimes we uncover and the more multi-day missile barrages that target water treatment plants and pump stations, the more ammo our politicians have to grant aid. 

This congress told the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Jonathan Sopko, to shut his mouth and color inside the lines instead of finding out where our trillions of dollars went.

ETA: 



Diamondback 2/2 said:


> I agree, however, I do think we will 100% end up in direct armed conflict with Russia if they use nukes and if they are already whipped to a point of using nukes on Ukraine, why wouldn't they with a NATO member...?
> 
> But again, my point is why allow this shit to go that far? How about we stay with no nuclear weapons get used, Russia goes back within their borders with egg on their face, the world sanctions the fuck out of Russia and gives it to Ukraine to rebuild.
> 
> Well atleast it's an idea, regardless how fairytale it maybe.😄



Russia has been whooped to the point where Putin needs to "strategically withdraw" from everywhere except Crimea and the half of Donetsk and portion of Luhansk they controlled ante bellum. But he won't.  He's mobilizing more men, giving them two weeks of training, and sending them to their death. He is creating a lost generation. Every day is another chance to pull back, would that make him weak? Would that get him deposed? Possibly on both. But considering they're committing genocide in Ukraine every day while they get beaten back (interesting, maybe have those guys at the front instead of raping and murdering civilians), I get your point of view.  Yet it does not acknowledge the crimes being committed.  And that's why this won't end until the Russian Army sounds retreat. 

In a previous post you also said Russia needed to pay reparations, honestly if full withdrawal to pre-war lines plus reparations was on the table, this would be over in a couple of days.  Alas, it is not.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2022)

Ukraine trying to join NATO for well over a decade, is not what I would consider neutral. I am by no means defending Russian actions, they're appalling to say the least. But to state that Ukraine was neutral after what happened in Georgia, is stretching it a bit. Also to act like the United States didn't have their dick in the mashed potatoes for the last decade is a bit far fetched as well.

The bottom line is the United States is using Ukraine as a proxy force to fight Russia, and Russia is getting its ass kicked. Russia doesn't like having it ass kicked, and has no problem upping the stakes, that is not good for Ukraine,  not good for Eastern Europe and has a high likelihood of putting the US and or NATO in direct open conflict with Russia.

Russia has been revamping their military for years (obviously not well), but they have invested into modernization. They have been attempting to establish themselves as a regional super power, Georgia,  Syria, Ukraine, etc. They're not likely to have the world view them as a military incompetent foe, by being beaten by a NATO supplied Ukraine. 

Without some form of peace/seize fire deal, Russia will use nuclear weapons. They will have to inorder to maintain some form of stature of a dominant regional power. That doesn't do anyone in the world any good. So again, my point is that, some smart people need to step in and cool this fucking thing down, before it gets to that point. Give Ukraine a win "we got the Russian invader to leave and defended our territory, give Russia an out where they don't look completely foolish to the rest of the world, and sanction the fuck out of Russia to pay to rebuild Ukraine. 

Or just fuck it, burn this bitch to the ground and we can all deal with the effects of a nuclear war... Not like our kids will have to deal with the consequences of our stupid inability to find a solution to elementary school problem. 🙄


----------



## Gordus (Nov 24, 2022)

I think we all agree, that Russia should return to its borders and nukes remain on their launchers.
But Russia isn’t even ready to give up their occupation of main land Ukraine, calling it unrealistic demands. Let alone Crimea.
On the other side, Ukraine is not willing to ever give up any of the occupied regions, including Crimea, voluntarily.
I suspect that the negotiations are equally stubborn and completely fruitless. There simply is no kind of common ground right now and let’s be honest, the mediator, you know who, is mostly acting in their own interests. Diplomatically, this is currently looking like a complete ****show. I don’t like where this could be heading either and really wish it won’t escalate to that level.
In any case, just wanted to say that despite some disagreement, I believe we all have our hearts in the right place on this.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 24, 2022)

Russia hasn't been at a negotiating table since they were outside of Kiev.  I don't see them coming to the table until they've been beaten out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts. 

A diplomatic solution requires a relatively willing partner, right now Lavrov and Putin ain't going to no table. So I don't understand the posts about Ukraine must do nothing when they don't acknowledge the genocide and other war crimes committed by Russia. Ukraine would come to the table if there was a serious offer, even when the Russian Army was miles outside Kiev and the offers weren't serious (Russia wanted half of Ukraine), Ukraine was at the table.


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 24, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Russia hasn't been at a negotiating table since they were outside of Kiev.  I don't see them coming to the table until they've been beaten out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts.
> 
> A diplomatic solution requires a relatively willing partner, right now Lavrov and Putin ain't going to no table. So I don't understand the posts about Ukraine must do nothing when they don't acknowledge the genocide and other war crimes committed by Russia. Ukraine would come to the table if there was a serious offer, even when the Russian Army was miles outside Kiev and the offers weren't serious (Russia wanted half of Ukraine), Ukraine was at the table.



You have an odd way of putting words in someone's mouth. Nobody has said that "Ukraine should do nothing"🤨

I said Ukraine needs to get right with Crimea and eastern separatists region becoming autonomous governments, with Russia within the Russian border, and that Ukraine needs to take a neutral position between NATO and Russia, if they want to survive as a country and not become a nuclear dump.

For fuck sake, the sensationalism you're projecting is ridiculous. Nothing new about genocide by Russia or many other eastern European countries, over the last century.  I am not excusing it or saying it doesn't matter, we have ways of dealing with that post conflict, nothing new there. Nuclear war, kinda a different fucking story.

Again, the point is a third party, who could negotiate a non-nuclear war, and bring an end to this mess, is in the Ukrainians and Russians best interests...

I mean what are you arguing for? They killed massives amounts of Ukrainian citizens, so we should not intervene and allow it to turn nuclear, so more Ukrainians can die? Russia should pay in blood? NATO should go to war with Russia?

Russia is a fucking nuclear power, and willing to use them... Get real dude, we are not burning the globe down for Ukraine...


----------



## AWP (Nov 24, 2022)

Russia won’t use nukes. They are rattling sabers and postering because they know it will get our attention.

But chemical or biological weapons? We showed the world what our red line was in Syria. We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.) Putin would totally use those while we’re distracted by the threat of nukes.


----------



## Cookie_ (Nov 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.)



I don't even think it'll get into a demographic reason to ignore it.

How much did we hear about the chemical attacks in Syria through mainstream channels?

A week or so at best?

It seems like chem/bio weapons are in a narrative blindspot for some reason.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 24, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> You have an odd way of putting words in someone's mouth. Nobody has said that "Ukraine should do nothing"🤨
> 
> I said Ukraine needs to get right with Crimea and eastern separatists region becoming autonomous governments, with Russia within the Russian border, and that Ukraine needs to take a neutral position between NATO and Russia, if they want to survive as a country and not become a nuclear dump.
> 
> ...



Am I putting words in your mouth? If anything my posts have been counter points.  You said to remove emotion from this and Ukraine should just concede and be willing to live with the results but that Russia should pay reparations.  I have acknowledged them and I said that if Russia withdrew to pre-war borders and paid reparations this would be over in days.  Yet I also pointed out the tremendous cost that Russia has exacted on Ukraine.  I've used the word genocide several times, and this is important.  They have murdered Ukrainian civilians and soldiers en masse.  They have removed children from their parents in Ukraine and put them up for adoption.  So for Ukrainians, this war will not be over until they've retaken all of their lost territory. Crimea will not be a serious objective until they've retaken all of Donetsk.  This will be at least 6 months from now, for as much as they've regained there remains almost 32,000 square miles of territory to regain before they even think about invading Crimea. 

Yes, Putin has nukes.  But if he hasn't used them now, why would he need to use them?

As I said, he's mobilizing tens of thousands of conscripts to throw rights into the meat grinder that is this war.  He is creating a lost generation of Russians.  He has no intent to stop, except for using that last thing in his arsenal which is Nukes.  Not that he needs those.  Mariupol basically doesn't exist anymore because he had his armies shell it into oblivion.  The same goes for several other Ukrainian cities.  He's currently using long range ballistic missiles to target all of Ukraines water and power infrastructure. 

So here we are, a conventional war which will last into next Summer.  

On the Russian Army modernization front, that was under the previous defense minister.  He was run out of town and gets to supervise helicopter engine construction. Shoigu reversed many of those programs that were meant to professionalize the NCO Corps and upgrade equipment. Basically, the corruption within the Russian Army continued.  Many times in this thread we've gone over the losses of the Russian Army.  The thing is basically toast.  Just a matter of time. Ukraine? Morale is high and they have a noble cause.

ETA:



AWP said:


> Russia won’t use nukes. They are rattling sabers and postering because they know it will get our attention.
> 
> But chemical or biological weapons? We showed the world what our red line was in Syria. We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.) Putin would totally use those while we’re distracted by the threat of nukes.



Actually, this was the exact criticism of the West's response to Rwanda in 1993, under the UNAMIR mission. The poor response was directly compared to the NATO Intervention mission to Bosnia in 1992. So it's likely that there would be a different tact taken by the west if homie let loose some nukes.  But, why does anyone think he'd only target Ukrainian cities if he launched nukes?


----------



## Gordus (Nov 24, 2022)

That is also true.
Remember how many times since 24th February, Putin threatened the West with serious consequences if they decided to get involved, be it only with weapons, not to mention heavy weapons deliveries ? They even rolled out some of their Topols for a night, to make "implications“.
Well the West decided to get involved knee deep regardless and turns out, that it has been one giant Russian bluff so far. Will it remain one, down the road ? Lets see. The US say they closely monitored any changes in their nuclear posture.

Consider something that might support this: Russia is willing to deploy nukes if they were to ever be invaded. From Russian POV, with the recaptures as a result of the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, Ukraine has literally conquered and occupied Russian territory. This is seen as such, not only by propagandists, but also gov & public. All that happened in both cases, was an "organized withdrawal". All that came back from Peskov was, that ppl should just remember, those were Russian lands.
Putin doesn’t seem ready to use nukes for his annexed separatist enclaves, that he himself now legally considers part of Russia, the same way as Crimea.


----------



## pardus (Nov 24, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Nov 25, 2022)

The landscape tells volumes. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596112966860120064


----------



## pardus (Nov 25, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596232808523268097


----------



## Gunz (Nov 25, 2022)

Atrocities are just tactical options for Russians, especially when things start to go south. Add into that raw conscripts—and Putin is said to be sending convicts now to help fill the ranks. 

I’m in agreement with those who think Putin might resort to tactical nukes if Russia proper is breached, although I think that’s unlikely.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 25, 2022)

pardus said:


> The landscape tells volumes.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596112966860120064



Have these people ever heard of dispersion intervals?


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 25, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Atrocities are just tactical options for Russians, especially when things start to go south. Add into that raw conscripts—and Putin is said to be sending convicts now to help fill the ranks.
> 
> I’m in agreement with those who think Putin might resort to tactical nukes if Russia proper is breached, although I think that’s unlikely.


Russian territory is not getting invaded, NATO would cut Ukraine's aid off in a day, and that would kill any hopes of a UK victory.


----------



## Gordus (Nov 26, 2022)

What is even more concerning, besides them having a military man present who should know better, is that someone sat there, editing that video and thought the Latvian flag stood for Poland. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596100426340106241


----------



## Gunz (Nov 26, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Russian territory is not getting invaded, NATO would cut Ukraine's aid off in a day, and that would kill any hopes of a UK victory.



Any incursion on to Russian soil would be a grave mistake in any case, regardless of NATO.


----------



## pardus (Nov 26, 2022)

Hmmm 🤔 

Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army - think tank

Belarus foreign minister Makei dies - Belta


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 26, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Any incursion on to Russian soil would be a grave mistake in any case, regardless of NATO.


The point I was trying to make earlier was how will Crimea and the Eastern separatists be viewed? Putin has already recognized them as autonomous governments/territories/whatever. Will he view them as Russian territory?

I whole heartily agree, if Ukraine pushes 5 kilometers into Russias border, the birds fly...period.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 26, 2022)

pardus said:


> View attachment 40965



Getting desperate over there apparently. 

Russia removing nuclear warheads from missiles, firing at Ukraine - UK


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Getting desperate over there apparently.
> 
> Russia removing nuclear warheads from missiles, firing at Ukraine - UK


Warzone had a good article.  Obsolete missiles being used as decoy's so the Iranian supplied drones can get through.  Which (IMO) adds credence to the UKAF shoot down claims.


----------



## AWP (Nov 26, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Getting desperate over there apparently.
> 
> Russia removing nuclear warheads from missiles, firing at Ukraine - UK



Former members of Minot AFB can testify that this is an extremely dumb idea because there's no way you can mishandle nuclear weapons...


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 26, 2022)

AWP said:


> Former members of Minot AFB can testify that this is an extremely dumb idea because there's no way you can mishandle nuclear weapons...


Maybe that’s the “oops” they’re hoping for.


----------



## RackMaster (Nov 26, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> The point I was trying to make earlier was how will Crimea and the Eastern separatists be viewed? Putin has already recognized them as autonomous governments/territories/whatever. Will he view them as Russian territory?
> 
> I whole heartily agree, if Ukraine pushes 5 kilometers into Russias border, the birds fly...period.



I'd have to look for it but I believe Putin already declared all held territory as Russian territory.


----------



## pardus (Nov 26, 2022)

RackMaster said:


> I'd have to look for it but I believe Putin already declared all held territory as Russian territory.


Yup, pretty much, that boat has already sailed, mostly empty threats to scare the west into submission, and Ukraine isn't invading Russia. 
This is a battle of wills, we must stand strong, like Churchill in WWII strong, that's the only way that we'll win this war, unfortunately too many people in the west are showing how soft they are and are proposing appeasement, and we all know how that works out.


----------



## DA SWO (Nov 27, 2022)

AWP said:


> Former members of Minot AFB can testify that this is an extremely dumb idea because there's no way you can mishandle nuclear weapons...


Maybe, but I believe these were "de-nuked" years ago.  Using them like we did with the Firebee drones in GW I and II.


----------



## pardus (Nov 27, 2022)

I’ve been trying to tell Ukraine to dig proper trench systems since April, to avoid the artillery and the water. I’m yet to see it though!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596744376931213320


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Nov 27, 2022)

Fighting position are what they are...I'm losing steam... where are the grenade holes?


----------



## Marauder06 (Nov 27, 2022)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> Fighting position are what they are...I'm losing steam... where are the grenade holes?


18" of standing water makes a pretty good sump ;)


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 28, 2022)

Anyone read the Institute for the Study of War? They publish daily a a Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that’s usually less than 10 minutes to read and contains good information (including pictures).


----------



## Devildoc (Nov 28, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Anyone read the Institute for the Study of War? They publish daily a a Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that’s usually less than 10 minutes to read and contains good information (including pictures).



They have good stuff.  Interestingly when I post their stuff elsewhere I get about equal accusation of being pro-Putin and a Zelensky-loving Nazi.

I thought this was interesting:


*Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[20]*


----------



## Gunz (Nov 28, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Anyone read the Institute for the Study of War? They publish daily a a Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment that’s usually less than 10 minutes to read and contains good information (including pictures).



Been hitting it for a few months now. Excellent maps.


----------



## pardus (Nov 28, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> I thought this was interesting:
> 
> 
> *Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[20]*


It has been happening since day one. I stopped looking at the numbers of Ukrainians "relocated" to Russia after it hit well over 1 million people. Crimes against humanity hardly describes the horror Russia is inflicting on Ukraine right now.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 29, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> They have good stuff.  Interestingly when I post their stuff elsewhere I get about equal accusation of being pro-Putin and a Zelensky-loving Nazi.
> 
> I thought this was interesting:
> 
> ...



This falls under the definition of genocide btw.


----------



## Gunz (Nov 29, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> This falls under the definition of genocide btw.



Yes, and in addition to forced transfers the Russians are collecting biometric data, fingerprints, mug shots for facial recognition and all manner of personal information from evacuees, including searches of bodies and belongings; and interviews (interrogations) about political views. Building up the surveillance databases.

Stalin would approve.


----------



## pardus (Nov 29, 2022)




----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597956726330097665

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597950730987769856

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597947940462825473

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597894571044012033

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597883621515268096


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

EU proposal would send proceeds of frozen Russian funds to Ukraine

Italy set to nationalise Lukoil refinery - paper


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597915331322089473

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597987189992067073

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597991343690850304


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597869545548435457

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597876937946693635


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

Merkle and her KGB/FSB handlers must have been very proud of their work 

Berlin’s push for Nord Stream 2 contributed to Ukraine war, German minister says


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597904943046090752

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597883904236851201


----------



## Blizzard (Nov 30, 2022)

The continued tactic of low level flying is interesting and speaks to Russia's apparent inability to solve for it (probably either side for that matter).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598071339847282690


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598033123719188484


----------



## JedisonsDad (Nov 30, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The continued tactic of low level flying is interesting and speaks to Russia's apparent inability to solve for it (probably either side for that matter).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598071339847282690


Low level flying is an effective tactic that really does work. When it doesn’t work is when you’re traversing flat open terrain, following predictable routes like major highways.

There are too many things in the modern world that can reach out and touch you, to be able to fly above the threat.


----------



## pardus (Nov 30, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The continued tactic of low level flying is interesting and speaks to Russia's apparent inability to solve for it (probably either side for that matter).


Until we see a technology leap, low level flying is the safest way of flying in combat, unless you are part of a military that has some very sophisticated technology/powerful backup that is supporting you every step of the way.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Nov 30, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> The continued tactic of low level flying is interesting and speaks to Russia's apparent inability to solve for it (probably either side for that matter).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598071339847282690


Nap of the earth.  Requires ADA to be on their shit to catch that because of targeting systems.  Or have a ton of ZSU-23s around and again, operators who are on their shit.


----------



## pardus (Dec 1, 2022)

Standby…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598394248583385095


----------



## pardus (Dec 1, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598432157101334540


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 2, 2022)

The partisan warfare spot has gotten rather large...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598648208959459334


----------



## pardus (Dec 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598778558524129280


----------



## pardus (Dec 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598728367129464835

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598728375253639168


----------



## AWP (Dec 2, 2022)

If you're a country with a GDP of over a #3 w/ large fries at your favorite burger place, you should probably start finding ways to counter drones.


----------



## Jaknight (Dec 2, 2022)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/edward-snowden-russian-citizenship/


----------



## JedisonsDad (Dec 2, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/edward-snowden-russian-citizenship/


What a piece of shit. I hope he gets drafted for the frontline, and dies in a cold wet trench.


----------



## pardus (Dec 2, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598822347330445312


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 2, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/edward-snowden-russian-citizenship/


I thought he got his citizenship in like August?

ETA: September 26th...see post: 





ThunderHorse said:


> Merrick Garland would get some points from me for trying Snowden for Treason in absentia and getting a conviction and the death penalty in the sentencing phase.


----------



## Locksteady (Dec 3, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> I thought he got his citizenship in like August?
> 
> ETA: September 26th...see post:


Thank you, I knew I wasn't going bananas _*just yet*_ in remembering the citizenship news from back earlier this fall.  

This news just seems more of a strategic dog-and-pony show to exploit his newfound status as a Russian citizen to people gullible enough to interpret that as a reflection of the leaders' mores.


----------



## AWP (Dec 3, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Thank you, I knew I wasn't going bananas _*just yet*_ in remembering the citizenship news from back earlier this fall.
> 
> This news just seems more of a strategic dog-and-pony show to exploit his newfound status as a Russian citizen to people gullible enough to interpret that as a reflection of the leaders' mores.



With the minor change above you just described our planet, especially here in the US.


----------



## pardus (Dec 3, 2022)

Bakhmut


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598423161971810322

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598954145020776448

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598693450882351106

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598778406669164544

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598934332974006273


----------



## Gunz (Dec 3, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/edward-snowden-russian-citizenship/



There goes a seriously fucked up moral compass. Maybe we can leverage the Ukrainian SBU to take the fucker out. Surely we’ve earned a few favors.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 3, 2022)

Locksteady said:


> Thank you, I knew I wasn't going bananas _*just yet*_ in remembering the citizenship news from back earlier this fall.
> 
> This news just seems more of a strategic dog-and-pony show to exploit his newfound status as a Russian citizen to people gullible enough to interpret that as a reflection of the leaders' mores.


Homie tweeted yesterday about why he's still there, said it was because his passport was revoked. No asshole, like, you can come home, but you're facing trial for treason. He can still come back, he just can't go anywhere else. Well now that he has Russian citizenship I guess he can go to China ana Iran for vacation.


----------



## Gunz (Dec 3, 2022)

If he pulls the kind of shit in Russia that he pulled here he's gonna get a free ride out a hospital window.


----------



## pardus (Dec 4, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599295526071066624


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 4, 2022)

Ok, so I feel a bit dumb.  Shouldn't this stuff melt/disintegrate after impact after the warhead goes off?  Guessing that shows us how well the Russians take care of their ordinance. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599355401601884160


----------



## DA SWO (Dec 4, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Ok, so I feel a bit dumb.  Shouldn't this stuff melt/disintegrate after impact after the warhead goes off?  Guessing that shows us how well the Russians take care of their ordinance.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599355401601884160


Look like CBU dispensors, @racing_kitty what say you.


----------



## Marauder06 (Dec 4, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Look like CBU dispensors, @racing_kitty what say you.


That’s what I was thinking.  But something’s off.  There are a lot of spent arty casings in the pic.  The Russians weren’t shooting casings.  That’s what’s left over after the cannon goes off and a round goes down range.  So if that’s in an Ukraine-held city, the those casings were probably from outgoing, rather than incoming, fire.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 4, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Look like CBU dispensors, @racing_kitty what say you.



Ah, thanks...did some googling.

Ukraine war: Evidence shows widespread use of cluster munitions in Kharkiv

Ukraine: Cluster Munitions Launched Into Kharkiv Neighborhoods



Marauder06 said:


> That’s what I was thinking.  But something’s off.  There are a lot of spent arty casings in the pic.  The Russians weren’t shooting casings.  That’s what’s left over after the cannon goes off and a round goes down range.  So if that’s in an Ukraine-held city, the those casings were probably from outgoing, rather than incoming, fire.



I completely forgot how many Cluster munitions were used in the Kharkiv bombardment.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 5, 2022)

Man, that's racist. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599517263152828416


----------



## Gordus (Dec 5, 2022)

One of Russias major strategic bomber bases was hit by drones. At least two Tu-95 were reportedly damaged. Other sources suggest, destroyed.

That is quite the deep penetration into Russian airspace, if confirmed.

Whatever may be the case, the Russian side is foaming over this.

Explosion Hits Engels-2 Airbase, Russia, Reportedly Damaging At Least Two Tu-95 Bombers

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599660288113987584
Some of them even suggest, that it prompted nuclear retaliation


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599705880177430529


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599810159236112406

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599776069438971906


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599832518944903168


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599822578624757762

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599516285460545536


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599832518944903168




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599838787059986432


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> That’s what I was thinking.  But something’s off.  There are a lot of spent arty casings in the pic.  The Russians weren’t shooting casings.  That’s what’s left over after the cannon goes off and a round goes down range.  So if that’s in an Ukraine-held city, the those casings were probably from outgoing, rather than incoming, fire.


I’m guessing it’s from the captured Russian arty positions outside of the city, but who knows.


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

A little bit of culture that I was unaware of. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599558069674946561


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

I can only imagine what this poor bastard has endured since his capture. People like him (railway workers in particular) in Belarus did some significant damage to the Russian effort to take Kyiv by disrupting the logistical supply to the front. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599725743012859905


----------



## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

Frankly It’s a disgraceful situation, words and agreements are meaningless. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599798607669886977


----------



## Marauder06 (Dec 5, 2022)

pardus said:


> Frankly It’s a disgraceful situation, words and agreements are meaningless.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599798607669886977


Yep.  Always have been, always will be.  National interests, specifically survival, trump everything.  #Realism


----------



## Gordus (Dec 6, 2022)

From a unit of the AFU 57th Motorized Brigade.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599711857471737858


----------



## Gordus (Dec 6, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600133489294118914


----------



## Gunz (Dec 6, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599838787059986432



Wow. So the Ukrainians weaponized and added a guidance package to an ancient Russian Tu-141 recon drone? That's pretty good. I'm surprised  they found one that wasn't a complete rusted wreck.

This, BTW, was our version of that.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 8, 2022)

These leaders, Dudayev, Shevardnadze etc. may have had skeletons in their closet. But they warned us and were right about Russia eventualy waging war against Ukraine and trying to assert control over Belarus.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600288739200102401


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Dec 8, 2022)

Griner discussion moved to here:

Griner Discussion


----------



## BloodStripe (Dec 12, 2022)

Could be propaganda but one hopes not. 

Ukraine hits 'Wagner HQ' in weekend of fighting - BBC News


----------



## Gunz (Dec 12, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> Could be propaganda but one hopes not.
> 
> Ukraine hits 'Wagner HQ' in weekend of fighting - BBC News



Everybody’s running with it internationally and every version quotes the same exiled governor and nobody else.

The TASS version leads me to believe there may be some truth in it. It at least confirms the HIMARS strike on the hotel.

Dec 10 strike on Melitopol was expected to show Kiev still has MLRS — public figure


----------



## Gordus (Dec 15, 2022)

Georgians and Wagnerites seem to be in a downright feud. Wagner declared a hunt. In return the Georgians attacked ( this time ambushed ? ) another Wagner position, killing 11 of them. (link) - Warning, graphic.

Meanwhile, the AFU engaged and disabled another T-90M. With 9 so far, that's nearly 10% of their total number.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603095789768769536
More US weapons deployed by the AFU


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603060017858494467
A tank-on-tank, ending in favour of the AFU.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602030183694860288


----------



## AWP (Dec 15, 2022)

6 weeks after my last post w/ numbers and we've jumped from 1306 destroyed or captured tanks to 1455, a delta of 149 or an average of almost 25 per week.

At that rate, a year from now the war will have cost them a total of 2748 tanks. Russia will literally have almost zero front line tanks and depleted much of what's in storage. Think of the corners her depot soldiers and civilians will have to cut to refurb all of those old T-72's, -64's, and -62's for the front, only to have a life expectancy measured in days.

I won't even begin to estimate where critical systems like armored vehicles, artillery, and prime movers stand, but those numbers have to be ghastly.


----------



## AWP (Dec 15, 2022)

If you assume 12 fixed wing a/c per squadron and 20 helos per squadron (the best numbers I can find though you may have better results)
1 squadron of SU-30M (Roughly equivalent to our F-15E Strike Eagles or F/A-18 Hornets)
2 squadrons of SU-25 (Roughly equivalent to our A-10)
1 squadron of SU-34 (Also roughly equivalent to our F-15E Strike Eagles or F/A-18 Hornets)

A US Fighter Wing has 3 squadrons and a US Carrier Air Wing typically has 4 strike squadrons. Go to Mountain Home, Seymour Johnson, or Lakenheath and fly every a/c and their crews into a mountain. OR, reduce an an entire carrier to a token force of strike aircraft. If you tack on various other strike aircraft losses you have another squadron of mixed airframes.

Helos, roughly 2 squadrons of their Apache equivalent models or 2 battalions/ squadrons in the US. When you add their transport losses, you have essentially an entire US Combat Aviation Brigade.


----------



## Gunz (Dec 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> 6 weeks after my last post w/ numbers and we've jumped from 1306 destroyed or captured tanks to 1455, a delta of 149 or an average of almost 25 per week.
> 
> At that rate, a year from now the war will have cost them a total of 2748 tanks. Russia will literally have almost zero front line tanks and depleted much of what's in storage. Think of the corners her depot soldiers and civilians will have to cut to refurb all of those old T-72's, -64's, and -62's for the front, only to have a life expectancy measured in days.
> 
> I won't even begin to estimate where critical systems like armored vehicles, artillery, and prime movers stand, but those numbers have to be ghastly.




Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently they've been upgraded a number of times to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right they're not doing the job.


----------



## AWP (Dec 15, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently they've been upgraded a number of times to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right they're not doing the job.


I’m pulling my loss data from Oryx and overall strength numbers from the most reputable sources I can find. The numbers in this war are almost unlike anything in modern times, including the Gulf War.

With that said, if anyone can run down better numbers for pre-war unit and equipment strength, I’m happy to stand corrected.


----------



## Blizzard (Dec 16, 2022)

Soon, the Soviet's motherland will be defended solely by spear chuckers and pitchforks. 

It's a remarkable decline by any measure.


----------



## RackMaster (Dec 16, 2022)




----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> I’m pulling my loss data from Oryx and overall strength numbers from the most reputable sources I can find. The numbers in this war are almost unlike anything in modern times, including the Gulf War.
> 
> With that said, if anyone can run down better numbers for pre-war unit and equipment strength, I’m happy to stand corrected.



It's why he's doing missile barrages now, doesn't have the ability to reach much beyond the front. Which shows he thought he'd be welcomed as a liberator of some kind and wanted to keep infrastructure. And now they're using their doctrine as it relates to artillery but getting nowhere since their competent soldiers are all dead.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 18, 2022)

Two interesting twitter threads.

Footage of Russian trenches being hit with very lethal effect. 

( Link ) - Warning, graphic.

There seems to be an ongoing debate wheter they were struck by airburst or more likely, cluster munition and from what country, US, Spain etc.

The other one is this:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604514157239275520


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 19, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604952012092624896


----------



## Totentanz (Dec 19, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604952012092624896



I've seen this one before - you assemble an army of panserbjorne and go fight the Tartars.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 20, 2022)

"Buying".


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604540346700300288


----------



## Gunz (Dec 20, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604952012092624896



Anywhere from 13,000 to 260,000 children, the latter figure according to DoS.

Russia’s “Filtration” Operations, Forced Disappearances, and Mass Deportations of Ukrainian Citizens  - United States Department of State




Gordus said:


> "Buying".
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604540346700300288



Fucking pathetic.


----------



## BlackSmokeRisinG (Dec 20, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently *they've been upgraded a number of times* to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right *they're not doing the job.*



Doing the job like a Takata airbag!


----------



## Jaknight (Dec 20, 2022)

Gordus said:


> "Buying".
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604540346700300288


Where’s your dad? 
He got blown up in Ukraine but look at this sweet phone I got long love Putin!!!! Takes selfie


----------



## DA SWO (Dec 20, 2022)

Watching and reading, are tanks "safe" from Javelin type systems anymore?


----------



## AWP (Dec 21, 2022)

DA SWO said:


> Watching and reading, are tanks "safe" from Javelin type systems anymore?



I don’t see how. Google says it can penetrate approximately 30 inches of rolled homogeneous armor. I’m not a tanker, but the countermeasures you’d have to apply to the top of a tank are probably prohibitive.


----------



## Gunz (Dec 21, 2022)

There’s been a lot of hoopla over the T14 in trade shows and mags etc, Russia’s newest battle tank. But apparently, despite it’s advanced protection system, it can’t defend itself against top-attack munitions.

And the whole program seems to be stalled. For many reasons. Not the least of which is cost to maintain with sanctions in place, tank losses in Ukraine, the incredible expense of the war etc.

And of course they’ve sent none to Ukraine. Might as well be a tortoise on it’s back.


----------



## BloodStripe (Dec 22, 2022)

Couple of Ukrainian early 20 something’s were starting at our hotel. Turns out for the last 8 months they’ve been touring Europe by Porsche. They could be financing something and maybe that’s their contribution, but I imagine there’s a lot more out there doing something similar.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 24, 2022)

An interesting breakdown of Russian military and PMC confirmed by name KIA, that currently number over 10.500. 

Nearly 16.000 pro-Russian deaths, if confirmed separatist losses are added. Total casualties are believed to be close to 120.000 at this point. Even among Russian sources, the number of dead is presumed to be considerably higher. 



> Of the 10,505 identified Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine, *1,529 people, that is, almost 15%, are officers*. Among the dead were *four generals and 50 colonels.*





> ... *176 of them are in the rank of lieutenant colonel and above.*





> For example, based on open sources, we were able to identify *at least 74 soldiers and officers of the 24th GRU Special Forces* Guards Brigade from Novosibirsk. Among them are *nine officers in rank from lieutenant to lieutenant colonel.*





> From open sources, it is known about the death of *492 mobilized Russians* - this is 62 people more than two weeks ago. Among them, we managed to establish the names of 456 people who died in the combat zone on the territory of Ukraine. Another 36 died in Russia, most often due to heart problems, accidents or alcohol abuse*.The actual casualties among those mobilized could be much higher, as many reports of soldiers killed in Ukraine since October do not indicate their status.





> Little is known about the losses of employees of private military companies. We managed to establish the names of *301 people who died fighting in the PMC*. Of these, more than 160 people are prisoners of Russian prisons. Some of them were convicted under grave and especially grave articles..





> It is also known about *110 cases of death of military pilots*. Losses among pilots are especially painful for the army: the training of one front-line pilot of the first class takes 7-8 years and costs about 3.4 million dollars.



According to this graphic from the article, the *number of killed Russian airborne troops exceeds 1,400. *Which is much higher than I expected. *Motorized infantry is at over 1,700.*




Numbers *by age*, based on intel from public media and social networks.





> As of December 2, the authorities of the self-proclaimed *DPR acknowledged the death of 4,133 servicemen*. *Losses are not reported in the self-proclaimed LNR, but it follows from open sources that they are clearly more than 1,000 people.*





> In addition, the BBC found more than 4,200 messages and posts on social networks of people who are looking for their male relatives, who ended up in the ranks of the "people's militia" and have not been in touch for a long time. Some of those who were searched for in the first months of the war had already returned home with "cargo 200".
> 
> Even taking into account only the data provided by the self-proclaimed authorities of Donetsk, *the cumulative losses of those who are fighting on the side of Russia could exceed 26,000 people dead.*
> Taking into account the wounded, the total losses of the pro-Russian forces during the 10 months of the war may exceed 117 thousand people.
> ...



Sources:

- Что известно о потерях России за 10 месяцев войны в Украине - BBC News Русская служба
- Потери России в войне с Украиной. Сводка «Медиазоны»


----------



## AWP (Dec 24, 2022)

"72 hours to flatten the Ukraine."

Colonel General Anthony Fauciovich


----------



## DA SWO (Dec 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> "72 hours to flatten the Ukraine."
> 
> Colonel General Anthony Fauciovich


Austin believed him.


----------



## Muppet (Dec 24, 2022)

AWP said:


> "72 hours to flatten the Ukraine."
> 
> Colonel General Anthony Fauciovich



What you did there....








I saw it.


----------



## Blizzard (Dec 26, 2022)

The window, what now must easily be the highest cause of death among Soviets, strikes again:
Another Putin critic 'falls out a window' to his death

There can't be this many deaths from falling out a window in the entire rest of the world combined.


----------



## AWP (Dec 26, 2022)

In the last year windows have killed more Russians than vodka.


----------



## AWP (Dec 26, 2022)

You know, if I were Putin I'd order everyone to paint their window frames blue. Now no one will fall out of a window, they'll just suffer a Blue Screen of Death.

Thank you, folks! You've been great! Don't forget to tip your waitress!


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 26, 2022)

This fucking guy: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607487338401206273


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 27, 2022)

Had to check the date on this. Apparently Lavrov is saying the same shit he said in March...

Russia's Lavrov: Either Ukraine fulfils Moscow's proposals or our army will decide


----------



## DA SWO (Dec 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> This fucking guy:
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607487338401206273


I want what he's smoking.


----------



## Gordus (Dec 27, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> This fucking guy:
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607487338401206273



He turned from a somewhat moderate Ru president during his first months in office, to Zhirinovsky 2.0 on steroids.
At this point there can be no talk of just some propaganda stunt to make the puppet master look good. it’s just full blown cuckooness by them all. They Nuts. Always have been.


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Dec 27, 2022)

New way's of waging warfare are coming online. Proof is in the pudding. Drone, Cyber, and EW are gonna be fucking huge after this. What's crazy is all this shit is still in it's infancy.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607727356835254272
Quoting myself.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 28, 2022)

Again, genocide. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608002506205847552


----------



## Blizzard (Dec 28, 2022)

You can almost hear this guy thinking, "Oh my god, you fucking idiot!"


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608186390126407682


----------



## Jaknight (Dec 29, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> You can almost hear this guy thinking, "Oh my god, you fucking idiot!"


----------



## R.Caerbannog (Dec 29, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> You can almost hear this guy thinking, "Oh my god, you fucking idiot!"
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608186390126407682


* Internal screaming *

Tank : "Fuck... these bitches bent my barrel."


----------



## Jaknight (Dec 29, 2022)

An NGO of Russian War veterans called the Russian union of  military veterans of Afghanistan and special military operations produced a guide called I live I fight I win The rules of living in war.  It’s an interesting read if anyone wants to take a look I Live! I Fight! I Win! The Rules of Living in War.pdf


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 29, 2022)

Have to say, the New York Times is doing numbers for how shit they are.  Trump was right in calling them the "Failing New York Times". 

Sent a writer down to the Bahamas to write a puff piece about SBF...and today they call Ukraine's fight for survival a "hardline" position. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608489286130892801


----------



## Crusader74 (Dec 29, 2022)

AWP said:


> I don’t see how. Google says it can penetrate approximately 30 inches of rolled homogeneous armor. I’m not a tanker, but the countermeasures you’d have to apply to the top of a tank are probably prohibitive.


The Javelin, as you know, has two modes of attack. I think the est form of defense is don't get hit.


----------



## Gunz (Dec 29, 2022)

Best recruiting incentive ever. You’re gonna die…but your sperm will live on.

Russian Lawyers Union: draftees to be granted sperm freezing free of charge before being sent to front lines


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 29, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Best recruiting incentive ever. You’re gonna die…but your sperm will live on.
> 
> Russian Lawyers Union: draftees to be granted sperm freezing free of charge before being sent to front lines


We need to preserve the genetic material of our heroes so that we can breed the ubermensche of the future...

ETA: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608625969748914182
Lollllll


----------



## BloodStripe (Dec 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> We need to preserve the genetic material of our heroes so that we can breed the ubermensche of the future...
> 
> ETA:
> 
> ...


If NATO hasn’t shown up yet I guess that means they don’t need another 40 billion from us.


----------



## AWP (Dec 30, 2022)

So, enlisting in the Russian army allows you to buy your daughter a smart phone AND your DNA is saved. Kinda' fucking your widow there, Ivan. One daughter with a smart phone and another without is bound to cause problems.

On the plus side, the supply of young Russian brides is about to go up which means the prices should drop, right?


----------



## ThunderHorse (Dec 30, 2022)

BloodStripe said:


> If NATO hasn’t shown up yet I guess that means they don’t need another 40 billion from us.



Why do you act so petulant and can't enjoy the comedy?

And in the literal sense, show me where on the doll the active duty SEAL TEAM 6er is fighting the Russians in Ukraine.



AWP said:


> So, enlisting in the Russian army allows you to buy your daughter a smart phone AND your DNA is saved. Kinda' fucking your widow there, Ivan. One daughter with a smart phone and another without is bound to cause problems.
> 
> On the plus side, the supply of young Russian brides is about to go up which means the prices should drop, right?



Yeah but the cost of a Ukrainian one is higher. And based on this war I think I know which one I'd order up as my next ex wife as the barer of my warrior sons.


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Dec 30, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> “Why do you act so petulant”


Cool it with the personal attacks.


----------



## BloodStripe (Dec 31, 2022)

ThunderHorse said:


> Why do you act so petulant and can't enjoy the comedy?
> 
> And in the literal sense, show me where on the doll the active duty SEAL TEAM 6er is fighting the Russians in Ukraine.
> 
> ...



I’ll wait to see what you have contributed boots on ground first…


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Jan 1, 2023)

Hell of a story from WSJ.  I know not all of you have a subscription so I put the text in the “spoiler link”.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609591558688448513


Spoiler: Text of the above story….



SULYHIVKA, Ukraine—The messages arriving on Viktor Yatsunyk’s phone were vague and worrisome. Somewhere nearby, Ukrainian soldiers had triggered a land mine and lay dead or injured.

The onetime carpenter and his teammates, who included a store-sign maker, a boxing enthusiast and a computer-science student, converged on a map reference in a beat-up crossover and a pickup truck.

When other army units needed something hazardous doneon the eastern front, they called this group. The team of more than 100 had retrieved bodies from no man’s land, led assaults on villages and crept through forests to hunt Russians with aerial drones. And they had won, repelling Russia’s advance in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region.

Viktor wrote to one of the group’s commanders on the Signal messaging app acknowledging, with a code, the information and the task. “++,” he typed.

The 44-year-old led seven soldiers in single file along the edge of a field in search of the casualties. A Wall Street Journal team followed behind.

The men knew the villages and fields in the area well. When Russian troops were around, a hamlet to the south had become the team’s home, and the forests and fields their terrain.

Viktor, who had served as a reservist in the British army, was a leader within the group. Known as Britanets, or Brit, for his secondary allegiance, he had lived in the U.K. for a quarter-century and received a British passport. He spoke with a London accent and served guests tea with milk. But his mother, who raised him alone with a passion for Ukrainian folk songs, had instilled in him a patriotism that never faded.

When the war started he headed to Ukraine to fight. The unit he joined in the east was dominated by men who made up for their limited military experience with bravery that verged on recklessness. The group was named Skala, or the Rock, after its leader, a giant army major with a passing resemblance to the actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. He pulled together men of similar spirit from wherever he could, and provided them with a steady supply of equipment and food.

The recent Russian retreat had eased months of high tension. That September day, some of the men weren’t wearing body armor. Some wore T-shirts. One waved a metal detector, but it wasn’t much use and he stowed it.

As the team walked along the road, they passed burned-out armored vehicles, antitank mines and discarded weapons and clothes. Recent rain had turned the path to thick mud, which clumped on the men’s boots as they walked. Where recently artillery and tank guns had raged, there was little sound but for a light breeze in the trees.

The team approached a curve about 500 yards down the track. I assumed the casualties would be around the bend.

An explosion flashed, cracked and shook the ground. I ducked instinctively, even though it was little more impressive than a large firecracker.

The echo of the blast faded to silence. Smoke drifted in from the trees to the right. Several soldiers had dropped to the sodden earth. Britanets lay motionless on his left side. Surely they will get up, I thought.

*A volunteer army*

Over 10 months, Ukraine has stunned the world with its military success, which includes reclaiming half the territory it lost during the initial phase of Russia’s invasion.

The Ukrainian effort relies heavily on volunteer units grafted onto the professional army. A novel military experiment driven at first by expediency, the decentralized command has since given Ukraine a crucial advantage in tackling the lumbering Russian military.

The units are often named for their commanders, such as Skala. They work with volunteers who raise funds and provide equipment, such as drones, power banks and pickup trucks. The soldiers are enlisted and follow the standard chain of command, but have broad latitude to pick tasks, coordinate with other units on the ground and figure out how best to get jobs done.

Ukraine has plenty of experienced soldiers—it has fought a low-level war against Russian paramilitaries in the east since 2014. But Russia is girding for a protracted conflict, calling up 300,000 reservists and moving the economy to a war footing. Ukraine can’t afford to lose personnel through carelessness.

As many as 13,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, officials say, and tens of thousands more have been wounded, taken prisoner or are missing. Many are inexperienced former civilians who learned on the job. Of eight members of one team in Skala’s group, only two remain at the front. Three have been killed, two are no longer physically fit for service and one is recovering in the hospital.

Members of Skala’s group sport badges emblazoned with two antitank weapons and a drone. Asked about the most important asset of his unit, Skala said: “My people.”

“For me as a commander the main thing is to keep my soldiers alive and to defeat the enemy completely,” he said.

‘*Who wants to start a war?’*

It was a few days after Russia invaded on Feb. 24 when Viktor left the farmhouse where he lived in Oxfordshire, England, to head to war. He wasn’t the type to sit idle when something needed doing, his wife Yulia told me. On a visit to the care home last December where she worked, he told her he didn’t want to end up like the old folks sitting silent and immobile.

“I want to die like a hero so my kids know I did something for the country,” he said.

“What are you talking about?” Yulia retorted. “Nobody’s going to die in a war. Who wants to start a war these days?”

After Viktor headed to the airport, Yulia felt confident he would be OK because he was always careful. In his job as a carpenter he would repeatedly check measurements before drilling a hole, she said.

Arriving in Ukraine, where he became Britanets, he joined with James Vasquez, a retired U.S. Army staff sergeant from Norwalk, Conn., who had come to volunteer his fighting skills. They hit it off and headed to Kyiv to join some of Britanets’s friends, who were based out of an auto-repair shop. They started ambushing Russian units with the help of antitank missiles. It was this kind of entrepreneurial warfare that characterized the early stages of the conflict.

Their comrades had little experience. One wore sneakers and a bright red top into early battles. “You are going to get us f—ing killed!” the American admonished him.

After one skirmish, Britanets shot a video of his U.S. teammate standing in front of a destroyed Russian tank. “Welcome to America!” Britanets called out from behind the camera.

Britanets would call Yulia on WhatsApp, his eyes shining, and gush about his teammates and the feeling of camaraderie.

“I can’t believe you went to Ukraine, to a war, where people are dying, and you’re so happy there,” she told him.

*Skala gathers*

After Russian forces retreated from Kyiv at the end of March, Britanets headed east to Barvinkove, a town of some 8,000, named for a 17th-century Cossack leader who founded it as a stronghold. For the Russians it was a new target.

If Russia could take the town, they could strike south and link up with troops slicing northward. That would trap some of Ukraine’s best military units in the east, where many had been fighting for years.

Britanets joined a crew whose job was to stop them. It was commanded by 33-year-old Maj. Yuriy Harkaviy, or Skala. He and a couple of dozen men had started out the war ambushing Russian tank columns. Now they were helping Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade, a battle-hardened mechanized unit, to keep the Russians north of Barvinkove.

The area saw brutal fighting during World War II and is dotted with memorials. Before the war with Russia, volunteer search teams would still dig up remains of bodies from the black earth.

Skala needed more men. He dispatched an aide to scour enlistment offices for suitable recruits. A local member of his team came across a group of soldiers in a house in Barvinkove attached to no official unit.

The team of eight had arrived from Kyiv. They had served in a volunteer unit named Brotherhood, whose leadership professes a far-right religious nationalism. Many of the men had signed up mainly because it was the quickest way to get their hands on weapons.

Among them was Ivan Shpylyevoi, 32, a gruff boxer who worked in online advertising. Ivan had recently switched from speaking Russian, his mother tongue, to Ukrainian. His mother had brought him up alone and they still lived together. He had started running with a bad crowd in his early 20s and getting into fights, his mom said.

After one trip to pick him up from the police station, his mom sat him down: “In life, I can only help you once, then you’re on your own,” she told him.

Something clicked. He distanced himself from the troublemakers and took up boxing more seriously. Around that time, an elderly neighbor approached his mom. “I want to thank you for your son,” the man told her. Ivan, he said, had fought off some teenagers who had tried to rob him.

At the start of the war, after three days trying and failing to enlist at a recruiting office, Ivan jumped on a train to Kyiv, and signed with Brotherhood. He was soon joined by an 18-year-old camp counselor and trainee auto mechanic called Denys Pankevych. They bonded the first night, sharing a laugh about how Denys had accidentally discharged his rifle into a wall of a university lecture hall where he had been billeted in early March.

Denys took the alias Kontrabas, which means cello but is also slang for contraband, because he used to smuggle cigarettes into Poland. Ivan became Sadist for his stern demeanor and the colorful descriptions of his plans for the Russians.

The reality of war stunned them at first. On an early mission to recapture a village, Kontrabas recalls taking cover from mortar fire behind a wall for 15 minutes in a stupor. “I prayed to everyone I could remember,” he said.

He decided he could just as easily be killed cowering in a bunker, so it was better to fight. He stepped out and began copying the more experienced fighters in his unit. The battle for the village lasted all day, ending with a Ukrainian success.

The group Skala inherited was a mixed bag. There was also Radek, a laconic 39-year-old Polish military veteran. Why was he fighting? “Right thing to do,” he said later. (The Wall Street Journal agreed to use only his first name.) The informal leader was 39-year-old Kostyantyn Rusanov, who lived in a Kyiv suburb with his wife and daughters of 11 and 13, where he ran a business selling store signage. When he enlisted and was asked for his nom de guerre, he responded “Nema,” meaning, “I don’t have one.” It stuck, as Nemo.

“Think hard if you are ready for this,” Skala told them. “It won’t be easy.”

Skala assigned the group a commander from his team and sent them on their first mission in May—to recover the body of a scout from the 93rd Brigade. The team set out on foot using a quadcopter drone to scan for the enemy. They took a rope with them, fearing the Russians could have mined the body. They located him, tied the rope around, and tugged. No explosion. They pulled him onto a stretcher and began to withdraw.

Suddenly, the rifle of one soldier caught on his belt and discharged a round. The noise apparently alerted the Russians, and a firefight broke out with the infantry from the 93rd Brigade, who had followed Skala’s men with the aim of digging a new forward position.

They got away with no losses—by sheer chance. “No one died, there was just a fight, and that’s it,” Nemo said.



*Scouting by drone*

Russia had an overwhelming advantage in artillery, firing around 10 shells to every one from Ukraine. Ukrainian forces, short on ammunition, focused on accuracy instead, often using drones.

Day after day, Nemo and his crew would head out in a pickup truck, then continue on foot into territory between the front lines to scout Russian positions. They would send the drone up to look for targets and report them back to HQ, a house in a village south of Barvinkove, where commanders would relay the data to artillery gunners. The gunners would correct their own fire from a live stream broadcast from the drone using Elon Musk’s satellite-based internet system, Starlink.

They began losing teammates, including Keks, or Cookie, a pilot, who rushed out on his own with a drone to locate a Russian tank. He had just gotten out of his car when a round exploded nearby, killing him. Another, Shram, or Scar, was sidelined by the lingering effects of injuries from a motorcycle accident he had suffered before the war. Rosomakha, or Wolverine, also quit because of old injuries.

Kontrabas was picked as a drone pilot. He would rather have been on an assault team, he said, for the thrill. When at home he drove at more than 120 miles an hour. “There are no healthy people at war. We are all addicted to something,” he said.

He grew close to Sadist, who became like an elder brother. Sadist had a hard shell but a soft side for those he allowed close. Kontrabas made a video of himself goofing around in a van to music with a cigarette hanging from his lips. Sadist, sitting alongside, glances at him then smiles.

Sadist shot a film of Kontrabas flying a drone. “Our pilot at work. What a hooligan!” he said. “Our little gem.”

Skala’s group had grown in size to more than 100 fighters. In the summer, the Ukrainians went on the offensive. They carefully prepared an assault on Dibrivne, a village to the north of Barvinkove, which would give them access to higher ground.

Nemo’s crew spent five days scouting the village. They located Russian armored vehicles and positions, and directed artillery to hit them. They would spend hours recording video so they had a better idea of the lay of the land.

Soon, Nemo felt he knew exactly where the hide-outs were. He told Skala they were ready to go.

The assault was led by small groups of Skala’s men, followed by troops from the 93rd Brigade, who were supposed to thrust into the village on foot and meet in the center. Nemo’s task was to lead the infantry to the village, using the knowledge he had gleaned.

As Nemo’s team approached a forest packed with concealed Russian positions, they heard the sound of explosions from the trees. The Russians were fleeing, and in such haste that they triggered their own booby traps.

The Ukrainians entered the abandoned village unscathed. From the heights nearby, they were able to strike farther and more accurately onto lower ground around other Russian-held villages. On one occasion, Kontrabas flew a drone 6 miles, a record for Skala’s pilots, to provide footage that helped artillery gunners destroy several Russian tanks.

On Sept. 10, Nemo and Kontrabas went to scout enemy positions in Brazhkivka, one of the Russian-controlled villages, but couldn’t find any Russians there. “Where the hell are they?” Nemo asked. The Russians had fled.

Tea, anyone?

The mood in Skala’s group was celebratory. They sped around the villages hunting for trophy vehicles left behind by the Russians and toured the places they abandoned.

At the village HQ, Britanets received a fresh consignment of equipment from volunteers with garrulous enthusiasm. He offered cookies and tea—“PG Tips or Yorkshire?”—to his guests, which included the Journal team.

Britanets paused now and then to field calls from men working farther east, where the Russians were trying to break through.

He commiserated with me, a fellow Brit, on the death of Queen Elizabeth II. “A good lady,” he said. He shared military banter with Journal security adviser Lee Brett, a former U.S. Army ranger whose job was to keep the reporting team safe.

Britanets showed us his freshly issued American M4 carbine and complained that it needed more accessories. He stowed it in a case. Then he fetched his Ukrainian-made Vulkan assault rifle and offered it to me to feel its weight. He laughed when I pulled my sleeves over my hands so as not to leave fingerprints.

He took back the weapon and laid it on top of a map marked with Russian positions. I continued to question him about how Skala’s group were using drones. The gun was pointing toward Lee, who raised his eyebrows.

“Oh sorry, mate,” Britanets said. “It’s empty.”

amber, but the magazine was full.

“Running through your NSPs,” Lee noted, referring to Normal Safety Precautions, a set of basic drills to ensure a firearm is safe.

“Yeah,” said Britanets, before returning to the theme of drones.

Ukraine, he said, needed more equipment from the West because it is like a bodyguard standing between Europe and Russia. “What a price Ukraine pays,” he said.



*‘I have to go’*

The Ukrainians’ celebratory mood was broken on Sept. 17 by a call from an officer from the 93rd Brigade.

Two officers, a combat engineer known as a sapper and a driver had triggered a mine while scouting for the bodies of men lost during the summer, the officer told a top aide to Skala. Could Skala’s group send a team?

“Britanets, you’re in charge,” said Skala. Britanets pulled on his body armor and helmet.

Just then, our team arrived back at headquarters. “I have to go,” Britanets told me as he walked past.

He jumped into the Kia crossover of a local man who would drive. Three others squeezed in the back: Metr, or Meter, a giant 23-year-old with long hair tied back beneath a bucket hat; Biliy, or White, a computer-science student who played guitar in a funk-jazz band; and Zheka, a thickset man who had been unsteady since he suffered a concussion and had asked not to be sent to the front lines.

The four-person Journal team followed behind with a local video reporter. Britanets tried to call the sapper, who was uninjured, for updates on their position, but couldn’t get through.

We edged across a damaged bridge, then turned right onto a muddy road toward the village of Brazhkivka, where Britanets had raised the Ukrainian flag days earlier. The cars slid from side to side on the muddy road, past two dozen or so incapacitated Russian armored vehicles.

The cars arrived at a fork in the road. One track led left back into the village. The other went straight, with a line of trees to the right. A green pickup sat at the junction with Nemo’s crew—Sadist, Radek and a recent recruit called Chekh, or Czech.

The teams got ready to go. Metr searched, without success, for a USB-C cable to launch a drone. A view from the sky would have told them that the sapper had already dragged the injured man out toward the road we had just left, and that both were safe. Instead, the teams were relying on an outdated map.

Britanets told Nemo he knew the area, Nemo later recalled. “You lead, then,” Nemo told him.

Britanets instructed everyone to leave their weapons in their vehicles. They would likely be pulling people out and would be better off with less gear. He left his helmet behind, as did the others. Some, including Sadist, weren’t wearing body armor. This wasn’t their standard practice.

The soldiers set off along a path between the trees and a field, then turned down an embankment and onto a dirt track.

Britanets turned around to the single file behind him. “Don’t walk too close,” he yelled in English.

The ground was heavy from recent rain and it caked on our boots. After a couple of hundred yards, we came across a line of antitank mines, green metal disks the size of pizzas with fuses in the middle. They are detonated by the weight of a vehicle and can be safely maneuvered around on foot. We shuffled past.

Radek, the Polish veteran, swung a metal detector in front of him. It beeped constantly, rendered worthless by the amount of shrapnel littering the ground. He turned it off. Sadist picked up a Russian rocket launcher as a trophy.

In the lead, Britanets approached a bend. He must have not seen the copper wire in front of him, which was attached to an anti-personnel mine, a rectangular plastic box about the size of a purse. It was concealed behind the grass among the trees 10 yards to the right, its scissor legs dug into the earth to hold it in place.

As Britanets’s leg pushed on the wire, it pulled a pin in the fuse, which released a spring-loaded striker that slammed into the percussion cap and fired the detonator. That set off the charge in the mine and propelled hundreds of tiny pieces of metal in an arc toward Britanets and the soldiers behind him.

Several crumpled to the ground.

All was silent. Britanets didn’t move. Then someone cried: “I’m hit.”

The uninjured men swarmed around the stricken. Nemo, seeing blood soaking the right side of his shirt and pants, managed to tourniquet his leg and arm with help from Metr.

Sadist rose to his knees, grasping his gut. Radek clutched a piece of gauze to his face to try to stem bleeding from his mouth.

Our team had crouched down when the blast hit and remained still, apart from the photographer, who stood up to capture the scene.

“Help us,” Zheka yelled, his eyes wide.

“Stay here,” Lee told us firmly, concerned for our safety. He was worried another mine could be triggered as the men scrambled to help the wounded.

“Check Britanets,” someone said.

Metr walked over and peered at him.

“Half his head is gone,” he cried.

The men couldn’t figure out how to carry out the injured with only three fully healthy soldiers.

“We’re going to have to help carry them,” I said to Lee. I paused: “Well, you tell me.”

“No,” he said. “No. I need you guys out.”

Lee stood up, turned around and went first, inching along the footprints we’d left, checking for more booby traps.

We had got only a few yards when Zheka yelled: “Press! Turn around and come and f—ing help.”

I looked back and saw him struggling to support Nemo, who was limping badly and howling with every step.

“Can I help him with the guy on his shoulder?” I asked Lee. Lee didn’t object.

I put my right arm under Nemo’s left shoulder and around his back. My right hand gripped his clothing damp with blood.

“It’s not far,” I told him as we set off.

I asked his name, told him mine, and asked whether he had children.

“Yes, two,” Nemo grunted.

“OK, we’re walking to your children,” I said.

We found a slow but steady rhythm. His weight dragged down my right side and grew heavier with every step. I tried to keep us moving in a straight line on the trodden path, worried about more mines if we strayed.

We had walked for several minutes when we spotted three armored vehicles laden with soldiers chugging along the track. We halted, and I called for help.

Nemo was weakening. I shoved my shoulder deeper under his to support his weight better. I was panting now. “Come on, you can do it,” I said, to him—and to myself. We made it a few more yards before he collapsed to the ground.

Several of the men had jumped off the armored vehicles and charged down the bank. They began to tend to Nemo, so I scrambled to the relative safety of the track.

Lee was there treating Radek, who had blood dripping from his mouth. A metal fragment was lodged inside. Lee told him to sit and wait for evacuation.

Back where the mine went off, Zheka, Metr and Biliy were struggling with Sadist.

“Guys, I’m f—d, you can just leave me,” Sadist said between groans, Biliy told me later.

They tried to load him on a lightweight canvas stretcher, which ripped. Sadist was covered in mud.

Zheka lifted Sadist’s legs onto his shoulders and Biliy tried to raise his body. “Why are you carrying me?” Sadist protested. “Put me down!”

The troops from the vehicles brought a stretcher and carried him to the road. His face was white, his mouth open and features contorted.

The soldiers laid the stretcher down and we went to help—Lee to provide treatment, me to assist and interpret.

“Keep him steady for me,” Lee said, lifting up Sadist’s T-shirt. A small slit was visible around where his liver was. A tear of blood seeped out.

We rolled him onto his side to check his back for an exit wound. There was none. The fragment must have sliced up his insides.

The muscle-bound boxing enthusiast Sadist was fading. He was no longer speaking Ukrainian but had reverted to the Russian that his mom spoke to her little boy, Ivan.

“Please,” Ivan said weakly. He was clawing at his pants trying to release the pressure from the blood pooling inside his gut.

“Please. F—,” Ivan pleaded, suddenly thrashing with his arms as if trying to haul himself up. “I can’t lie here.”

We pinned his arms and Lee started to apply a bandage and tried to comfort him. We had done what we could.

We went to check on the other casualties. Nemo’s leg wound wasn’t serious, which meant the blood covering him must be coming from his arm, where the tourniquet was loose. Biliy held him from behind and I gripped his arm tight as Lee pulled off the bandage. Blood squirted a foot in the air.

“Tell him this is going to suck,” Lee told me. He took a wad of gauze designed to stop bleeding and shoved it into Nemo’s arm. Nemo screamed.

Lee wrapped a bandage over the top and secured it. “Done, done,” he told the soldier. “The good news is, you’re going to live.”

Lee bandaged up the minor leg wound of Chekh.

Biliy cradled Sadist. He was dead.

Some soldiers lifted him from the stretcher onto a blanket with a picture of a lion. His right arm flopped to the side, revealing a tattoo, which read: “Good luck.”

Skala sped up in his black SUV. He looked worried and needed to take control.

Metr had stayed with Britanets at the bomb site. Others worried the mine had been set off by vibrations and that there were more to come. Skala went to fetch his men. The sapper from the 93rd Brigade—the man whose group had sparked the day’s events—went with him. Skala also took a Russian prisoner the group was holding.

“I can’t risk my people,” he said.

They freed Britanets from the wire, which was wrapped around his boot, covered his head, loaded him onto a stretcher, and brought him back to the road. They lifted him onto the back of a pickup next to Sadist, and covered him with the blue canvas stretcher. His striped gray socks poked out from underneath.


*No romanticism*

Skala had questions for us when we saw him two days later.

“Why did you go onto the field?” he asked. He was worried he had put us at risk. I reassured him that we were doing our jobs and were aware of the danger.

Our presence there concerned him for another reason: Had Britanets been playing to the press and lost his vigilance? “He’s a character,” Skala said.

It was the group’s first loss to a tripwire, he said. He lamented that the men hadn’t been able to launch the drone, because perhaps then they would have seen the safer route via the main road.

“Carelessness,” he said. “We were heroes, real men. We were relaxed.”

Could Sadist have been saved? No, Lee replied.

The day after the incident, Kontrabas called Sadist’s mother and told her that Ivan was dead. He thought the call was better coming from someone who knew Sadist well, rather than from an unknown officer from HQ. When Kontrabas heard his friend’s mother burst into tears, he felt a surge of guilt. He was alive and hadn’t been there to look out for his friend, who had saved him earlier in the war.

Ivan died as he wanted, his mom said, recalling his words before he set off in February: “Mom, if I die at war, it is the death I want most of all.”

Radek had several operations over the following weeks. The fragment had hit a nerve, paralyzing his face. He had to learn to talk and eat again.

He said lack of training, poor midtier command and a lack of professionalism were costing Ukraine dear. The men were brave, he said, but they were being thrown into a meat grinder that was chewing up young men and experienced fighters.

He said he would go to the front when he recovered. “No romanticism here,” he wrote in a message, “just pragmatism.”

Nemo recovered well. By December he was back on the front lines in the east. “Who else is going to do it?” he said.

Shortly after he returned, another of their crew, a man in his early 30s named Arkhip, was killed in fighting. That left only Nemo and Kontrabas from their original group of eight from Brotherhood still at the front.

In England, Yulia mourned Viktor, Britanets. She knew him as a gregarious but meticulous man. She wondered—had he been so focused on the task of saving others that he had overlooked his own safety?

Viktor’s ashes were buried in his grandmother’s village in western Ukraine, where he had planned to retire with Yulia and renovate his ancestral home. The local mayor granted permission for him to be buried at a memorial for heroes of attempts to establish a Ukrainian state in earlier centuries.

Viktor’s mother fell to her knees in tears in front of the grave. Then dozens of mourners broke into the Ukrainian national anthem, a defiant ode to the price of liberty that includes this penultimate line: “We shall lay down our souls and bodies for our freedom.”


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## Gunz (Jan 1, 2023)

AWP said:


> So, enlisting in the Russian army allows you to buy your daughter a smart phone AND your DNA is saved. Kinda' fucking your widow there, Ivan. One daughter with a smart phone and another without is bound to cause problems.
> 
> On the plus side, the supply of young Russian brides is about to go up which means the prices should drop, right?



They’re also offering free train tickets.


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## AWP (Jan 1, 2023)

Gunz said:


> They’re also offering free train tickets.



For the Russian widows brides? Sweet! My bottom line increases and the ones who aren't so...photogenic can easily find a job at AWP's Helmand Province Agricultural Co-op.

This war grows on me with each passing day.


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## BloodStripe (Jan 4, 2023)

Gunz said:


> They’re also offering free train tickets.


If all the men are dead there won’t be any trains to run..


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## Gordus (Jan 5, 2023)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609494807541325825


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## Gordus (Jan 5, 2023)

Now everything makes sense. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609779015555874818


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## Jaknight (Jan 5, 2023)

Gordus said:


> Now everything makes sense.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609779015555874818


I don’t know how I just know they said it


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## Gordus (Jan 5, 2023)

Jaknight said:


> I don’t know how I just know they said it



I like to think that they were actualy speaking French, so it makes even less more sense.


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## 757 (Jan 5, 2023)

Gordus said:


> I like to think that they were actualy speaking French, so it makes even less more sense.




Interrogator: "How'd you know they were French?"

Russian POW: "There were signs..."


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## JedisonsDad (Jan 5, 2023)

Putin orders 36-hour Ukraine Christmas ceasefire - BBC News


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## DA SWO (Jan 5, 2023)

JedisonsDad said:


> Putin orders 36-hour Ukraine Christmas ceasefire - BBC News


I think those claiming the war will end this year are probably wrong.


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## Gunz (Jan 5, 2023)

Putin's going to be in Donestsk on Jan 7, Orthodox Christmas. Be great if the SBU could identify a location and initiate a strike.

I wonder how long the war would last if Putin got iced.


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## ThunderHorse (Jan 5, 2023)

Gunz said:


> Putin's going to be in Donestsk on Jan 7, Orthodox Christmas. Be great if the SBU could identify a location and initiate a strike.
> 
> I wonder how long the war would last if Putin got iced.



Nicholas was told not to go to the front and it ended his reign.


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## JedisonsDad (Jan 5, 2023)

Gunz said:


> Putin's going to be in Donestsk on Jan 7, Orthodox Christmas. Be great if the SBU could identify a location and initiate a strike.
> 
> I wonder how long the war would last if Putin got iced.


Imagine if there is an inside job that could be explained away as a Ukrainian hit squad, that gives both sides an easy out of the war.

A boy can dream…


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## Blizzard (Friday at 9:21 AM)

Prigozhin is the bigger issue in Russia.  That's the guy who needs to find an open window.


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## Gordus (Friday at 1:22 PM)

Blizzard said:


> Prigozhin is the bigger issue in Russia.  That's the guy who needs to find an open window.



Prigozhin, Kadyrov, Surovikin etc are all rising in power and certainly part of the problem. But all of them are ultimately still just Putins henchmen. They were able to work their way up in his apparatus, because he allowed that. Putin needs hardliners to do the dirty work. What was "necessary" from their POV, like we observe in this war. At some point they may actualy challenge his rule. Right now though, he is the one calling all the decicive shots. Really, nothing will change by removing a few branches, or even the core, uncle Vlad himself. The whole rotten tree must be brought down. Ideally by the people.


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## Gunz (Friday at 2:58 PM)

Gordus said:


> ... The whole rotten tree must be brought down. Ideally by the people.



Ideally...but not holding my breath. The war needs to drag on for years and many, many more Russians need to die before the people get the outrage and the balls to take to the streets in significant numbers. Right now your average Russkie is still drinking the patriotic Kool-Aid. Get the body count up to, say, 58,220 -- oh, just a random number that comes to mind  -- when a lot more people know somebody on the list, and maybe the earth under Putin's feet will start to move.

Right now the numbers crunchers at Mediazona and the BBC Russian desk are coming up with approximately 10,000 Russian dead. (Mark Miley says 100,000 but he's smoking crack). So if 10,000 Russkies have bought a farm in Ukraine after one year of combat, we'll need to wait another 5 or 6 years at this rate for the death toll to have more impact.


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## Gordus (Saturday at 12:41 AM)

Gunz said:


> Ideally...but not holding my breath. The war needs to drag on for years and many, many more Russians need to die before the people get the outrage and the balls to take to the streets in significant numbers. Right now *your average Russkie is still drinking the patriotic Kool-Aid*. Get the body count up to, say, 58,220 -- oh, just a random number that comes to mind  -- when a lot more people know somebody on the list, and maybe the earth under Putin's feet will start to move.
> 
> Right now the numbers crunchers at Mediazona and the BBC Russian desk are coming up with approximately 10,000 Russian dead. (Mark Miley says 100,000 but he's smoking crack). So if 10,000 Russkies have bought a farm in Ukraine after one year of combat, we'll need to wait another 5 or 6 years at this rate for the death toll to have more impact.



Yeah, can confirm from personal experience. Sadly that seems to be the only ( or one of the few ) way(s) right now. I really wish it wasn't. Another 5-6 years of this. Great. Smh.


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## Gunz (Saturday at 12:49 PM)

Gordus said:


> ... Another 5-6 years of this. Great. Smh.




Well, now...maybe not. There are a lot of _"ifs."_

My last post assumes that the Ukrainians can hold out. If they fold, all bets are off and Putin wins. They're gonna be getting killed at the same time, hopefully not at the same rate.


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## Gordus (Saturday at 3:20 PM)

Gunz said:


> Well, now...maybe not. There are a lot of _"ifs."_
> 
> My last post assumes that the Ukrainians can hold out. If they fold, all bets are off and Putin wins. They've got to have the tenacity, the weapons and especially the manpower to outlast Russian resolve. They're gonna be getting killed at the same time, *hopefully not at the same rate*. It's up to them to rack up the Russkie body count to the point where Putin's Kool-Aid becomes a sick joke among a large portion of the Russian populace.



I agree. The resolve is certainly there, but current Ukrainian losses seem similar in scale. Morbid, but the attrition warfare must turn decicively in their favour.


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## Blizzard (Saturday at 3:25 PM)

Even if Ukraine were to eventually fall, and I don't think it will, this is still a monumental loss for Putin.  Aside from losing massive amounts of their best troops and equipment, the Soviets have effectively lost their ability to project force.


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## Gordus (Saturday at 3:32 PM)

Blizzard said:


> Even if Ukraine were to eventually fall, and I don't think it will, this is still a monumental loss for Putin.  Aside from losing massive amounts of their best troops and equipment, the Soviets have effectively lost their ability to project force.



On the other hand, if they turn their back on Europe ( which I doubt ), it may cripple ( or so is the big fear ) prosperity, in especialy certain European countries. But they are just as dependent and I don't think they want to be too much on China. So I really wonder what would happen if they did actualy admit defeat back out of this mess with concessions. Probably an internal power struggle / coup and back to square one. 
If all those people remain in the power structures I doubt any good political deals can be struck. Smth needs to really *force* them to the table.


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## BloodStripe (Sunday at 12:50 PM)

Huge if true that Russia killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. Also, I don’t trust either side telling the truth on how many were actually killed. 

Ukraine denies Russian claim it killed 600 soldiers


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## ThunderHorse (Sunday at 3:06 PM)

BloodStripe said:


> Huge if true that Russia killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. Also, I don’t trust either side telling the truth on how many were actually killed.
> 
> Ukraine denies Russian claim it killed 600 soldiers




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612121227971239936
Guy seems pretty legit: Bakhmut senza tregua: Natale ortodosso tra i colpi di cannone


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## AWP (Sunday at 4:55 PM)

We're assuming Putin will live another 5-6 years. You have natural causes and windows galore. In almost-Soviet Russia, window opens you.


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## Kraut783 (Sunday at 8:35 PM)

2023 could be the year for Putin......


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## Gunz (Tuesday at 4:48 PM)

Kraut783 said:


> 2023 could be the year for Putin......


----------

