# .Dissertation on statistical predictors for BRC



## Devildoc (Apr 18, 2018)

Through a weird confluence of activities, I found the following dissertation regarding statistical predictors of success in BRC.  Warning:  there's for-real statistics here.

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/53025/17Mar_Nowicki_Albert.pdf?sequence=1


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## Marine0311 (Apr 18, 2018)

Wow 
Bookmarked


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## Ooh-Rah (Apr 18, 2018)

Damn, I'll be reading this in far more detail.  Interesting find on page 5

27% DOR
17% get cut for Medical
14% get cut for failing Land Nav

So if you don't quit, don't get hurt, and can use a compass, you are about 60% there.  Really backs up what @Teufel keeps preaching to those seeking advice about BRC...."Don't Quit".


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## PCRWizard (Apr 18, 2018)

My takeaways: number one predictor of success is physical fitness. 

Age isn't a significant predictor of success. 

Having deployed in combat is *negatively* associated. (no idea why but this held true through multiple controls) 

"having completed at least one semester of college is associated with an
20.5 percent increase in the probability of graduating BRC."


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## Salt USMC (Apr 18, 2018)

Devildoc said:


> Warning:  there's for-real statistics here.


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## Teufel (Apr 18, 2018)

Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine. 

I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC. 

I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?


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## Ooh-Rah (Apr 18, 2018)

Teufel said:


> I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?


Sir,

It made a point of stating that BRPC data was not included:
_The scope of this study focuses on BRC and does not examine the data associated with the newly formed Basic Reconnaissance Primer Course (BRPC). (page 3)_



Teufel said:


> I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.


Combat deployments was a factor he had a formula for:
h. Combat Deployments The number of combat deployments is statistically significant, but the sign of the coefficient is negative (𝜕𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏(𝐺𝑅𝐴𝐷=1) 𝜕𝐶𝑂𝑀𝐵𝐴𝑇_𝐷𝐸𝑃 = [-] .0998, P>0.000). I control for age and all other constants, yet a candidate with one more combat deployment is less likely to graduate. I hypothesize combat deployments is negatively correlated with mental health or resiliency, and if resiliency is positively correlated with graduation, the omitted variable bias results in the negative coefficient.


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## Devildoc (Apr 18, 2018)

Teufel said:


> Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine.
> 
> I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.
> 
> I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?



Just BRC.  

Regarding your combat vet perception, my best friend flunked out of Ranger school on first pass, after having seven or eight combat deployments. Once he got his head on straight and understood the rules of the game he did just fine and passed it on a second attempt.


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## Teufel (Apr 18, 2018)

The bulk of attrition occurs at BRPC.


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## Marine0311 (Apr 18, 2018)

Teufel said:


> Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine.
> 
> I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.
> 
> I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?



What do you mean?


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## Teufel (Apr 18, 2018)

I don’t think they want to deal with all the bullshit. You’re treated respectfully but it’s tough going back through an entry level course when you’ve been around the block a few times. You have to swallow your pride and get it done. Sometimes that’s easier said than done.


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## BloodStripe (Apr 23, 2018)

Force Recon Officer

Just tying a few threads together. 

Has the officer rate attrition rate improved, @Teufel ?


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## Teufel (Apr 23, 2018)

NavyBuyer said:


> Force Recon Officer
> 
> Just tying a few threads together.
> 
> Has the officer rate attrition rate improved, @Teufel ?


Not really


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## Gunz (Apr 24, 2018)

Teufel said:


> I don’t think they want to deal with all the bullshit. You’re treated respectfully but it’s tough going back through an entry level course when you’ve been around the block a few times. You have to swallow your pride and get it done. Sometimes that’s easier said than done.


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