# "Withdrawal Under Pressure" in Afghanistan-  McCaffrey



## Marauder06 (Feb 25, 2013)

This was just forwarded to me, I haven't had a chance to do anything more than skim it.  I thought this would be of interest to many on the site.


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## RackMaster (Feb 25, 2013)

A pretty interesting and accurate read, it must have been a good presentation.


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## DA SWO (Feb 25, 2013)

Marauder06 said:


> This was just forwarded to me, I haven't had a chance to do anything more than skim it. I thought this would be of interest to many on the site.


Very interesting, wish I could have heard the brief.


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## AWP (Feb 25, 2013)

Interesting read and like the others, I wish I'd heard the brief. I did find the last slide to be the most compelling.



> No consistent message –
> –Obama signals resolve.
> –Biden creates doubt.
> –Karzai destroys US political support.


 
I just laughed until the seriousness of this hit me.



> Need 20,000 to 30,000 US troops 2014-2017. Need 10,000 US troops 2018-2028.


 
Um, duh.....but we'll all be home in 2014, right? If we bail this place implodes and staying doesn't improve our lot.



> - Will the Northern Alliance overtly partner with India?
> - Will the Pakistanis believe they have any other option than to be US partner?


 
Very interesting topics. Game changers for this country, Asia, and eventually the world given enough ripples and time. Fundamentally alter the political relationships in Asia and you can shape world policy. Asia is too large and has too much wealth to be ignored. The NA is part reality, part myth. Essentially what this says is "Will non-Pashtuns overtly partner with India?"

If the PK's bail on us...rather if they find that they can't lead us around by the nose,  then what? That becomes a frightening scenario though one of low probability.


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## DA SWO (Feb 25, 2013)

His other risk factors were interesting too, especially the comments about Castro and Chavez.


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## 104TN (Feb 25, 2013)

Is that the whole thing?


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## AWP (Feb 25, 2013)

And..."Withdrawal Under Pressure" or "Retrograde while in Contact" are clever phrases for?

Retreating.


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## Kraut783 (Mar 7, 2013)

*#5 RISK *– Chavez dies in Venezuela – Fidel Castro dies in Cuba – violent regime change takes place. 

Well....half of that has happened.

Would have also like to have seen the briefing.....good read, thanks Marauder


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## surgicalcric (Mar 7, 2013)

Freefalling said:


> And..."Withdrawal Under Pressure" or "Retrograde while in Contact" are clever phrases for?
> 
> Retreating.


 
War means something different to the military than it does to soccer moms.  Yet since we allow our military engagements to be decided by the civilian populace's resolve to see things through there isn't another option here.


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## DA SWO (Mar 8, 2013)

Kraut783 said:


> *#5 RISK *– Chavez dies in Venezuela – Fidel Castro dies in Cuba – violent regime change takes place.
> 
> Well....half of that has happened.
> 
> Would have also like to have seen the briefing.....good read, thanks Marauder


Agree on seeing this brief.
Now if castro would just kick off, of course we are not serious about getting rid of Communism is Cuba.


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## Scotth (Mar 8, 2013)

I think the mission passed 2014 will be hoping that the CIA is up to the task and the contigency plan will involve the redirecting of current expenditures into purchasing a large stock of cruise missiles for future use.

Thanks for sharing Mara.


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## DA SWO (Mar 8, 2013)

Scotth said:


> I think the mission passed 2014 will be hoping that the CIA is up to the task and the contigency plan will involve the redirecting of current expenditures into purchasing a large stock of cruise missiles for future use.
> 
> Thanks for sharing Mara.


I wish you were correct, I see the possibility of an ISR presence, which would mean keeping Bagram open, with a heavy SOF/Intel/Logistics footprint.


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## Scotth (Mar 8, 2013)

SOWT said:


> I wish you were correct, I see the possibility of an ISR presence, which would mean keeping Bagram open, with a heavy SOF/Intel/Logistics footprint.


 
and if you could get rid of Karzai and get rid of the corrupt government I could be very happy with that solution.


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## DA SWO (Mar 8, 2013)

Scotth said:


> and if you could get rid of Karzai and get rid of the corrupt government I could be very happy with that solution.


kazai will blow town as soon as he is out of office, corruption in that part of the world is tolerated (sadly, by our own officers).


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## AWP (Mar 8, 2013)

SOWT said:


> I wish you were correct, I see the possibility of an ISR presence, which would mean keeping Bagram open, with a heavy SOF/Intel/Logistics footprint.


 
I will not be surprised to see A-10's and -130's remain, either at Bagram or another base in country. Full or maybe half-squadrons to go with an ISR presence to include drones. US Mil will be at Bagram through 2016, probably 2018, and maybe 2020. The Army could potentially keep some type of CAB(-) or maybe an aviation BN(+) in country for logistics and CCA. There's a bid out for air traffic control at 3 FOBs in country...instead of bridging the existing contract for a year an entirely new bid is hitting the street during sequestration?

The problem is "simple": If we leave troops in country we aren't going to make them depend on the Afghans for CAS, logistics, and ISR because the Afghans don't have any of that. Our risk adverse nature will have some type of package in country to support the trainers we leave behind. At worst, CAS and -130's/ -17's base out of the Deid and fly in for a few days/ overnight in a shell game to keep the troop cap (which won't be called a troop cap) under a certain number.

Our military doesn't know how to do anything on the cheap. We'll still have a massive uniformed footprint and an equally or more massive contracted footprint.



Scotth said:


> and if you could get rid of Karzai and get rid of the corrupt government I could be very happy with that solution.


 
You have a better shot at distilling unobtainium from unicorn tears.


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