# Election Predictions



## Marauder06 (Nov 8, 2022)

About to go vote.  

Anyone want to make predictions for today's elections?  This is a no-judgment, no-arguments thing.  If you want to make your best guess, go ahead/  no justifications necessary, no recriminations after.

I think the Republicans will win big in the House, and will squeak by in the Senate, to win both houses.  They will also make gains in state governorships in places like Georgia and Arizona.  I think the Democrats hold NY and NH.

This thread is for predictive analysis only.  If you want to fight about politics, please do it elsewhere.


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 8, 2022)

I would like to think Republicans will win both, but I’m never surprised to hear the comments coming out of people’s mouths, and realize how uninformed, or misinformed, they are.

I think it’ll be close, slightly favoring Republican.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 8, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> About to go vote.
> 
> Anyone want to make predictions for today's elections?  This is a no-judgment, no-arguments thing.  If you want to make your best guess, go ahead/  no justifications necessary, no recriminations after.
> 
> ...



I agree with most of your assessment. I think Masters flips the seat in AZ, and Oz might squeak by in PA given the general feeling around Fetterman's stroke.

I'm really interested to see if Walker beats Warnock in GA. If he does, it'll be prime example of "people will vote for a rock if it has a (R/D) next to it on the ballot."


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## amlove21 (Nov 8, 2022)

I think that the polls have been underreported; and reflections from partisan entities makes me think that the D side takes an L.

Pennsylvania is a problem; Fetterman just sued to allow ballots post-deadline to be counted, Philly is notoriously shady.

Arizona goes red. Zeldin has a real shot in NY; Whitmer is desperate. I’d also love to see AOC lose (for the tweets). 

I will say, I don’t like either party and they’ll both fail you. That being said…

I don’t know if one party fixes all our problems. But I can 100% point to the exact source of every single problem. And there is most definitely one side committing political violence in spades.

We shall see.


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## pardus (Nov 8, 2022)

I went in to vote first thing today, I was told my registration status was Inactive due to me not voting in the last general election as I was deployed at the time. So I had to fill out a form basically asking to be allowed to vote again (didn't need to show ID though), then filled out the ballot paper, both of which were then placed into a separate pouch and taken away. I'm then told,  "No news is good news, if they won't accept your vote, they'll contact you and explain why".
WTF!? It may not be dodgy, but it sure seems dodgy.


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## DA SWO (Nov 8, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I agree with most of your assessment. I think Masters flips the seat in AZ, and Oz might squeak by in PA given the general feeling around Fetterman's stroke.
> 
> *I'm really interested to see if Walker beats Warnock in GA. If he does, it'll be prime example of "people will vote for a rock if it has a (R/D) next to it on the ballot."*


I think both of them are rocks, so I agree.
Voted, went with the Dem for County Judge (Exec) as the female Republican just seems shady, something about her seems Palin-ish.
Other news, my Councilman just got arrested and the news calls it a hit and run.


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## AWP (Nov 8, 2022)

pardus said:


> I went in to vote first thing today, I was told my registration status was Inactive due to me not voting in the last general election as I was deployed at the time. So I had to fill out a form basically asking to be allowed to vote again (didn't need to show ID though), then filled out the ballot paper, both of which were then placed into a separate pouch and taken away. I'm then told,  "No news is good news, if they won't accept your vote, they'll contact you and explain why".
> WTF!? It may not be dodgy, but it sure seems dodgy.



WTF? Dodgy stuff like the above contributes to the allegations and rumors of election fraud. 
---

The House goes red, Senate's too close to call, and the biggest losers today are the American people. Another election cycle, another L.


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## Dame (Nov 8, 2022)

I'm thinking the governors' races slide to the right.


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## 757 (Nov 8, 2022)

Woke up today at 6 to go vote, and the dude who got checked in right before me ended up with two ballots in his envelope. I know this because the dude made a scene about it and the pollster thanked him a bunch for correcting the issue. #Off2AGoodStart XD


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## TLDR20 (Nov 8, 2022)




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## Jaknight (Nov 8, 2022)

I think it’s red shift not wave GOP gets the house but not the senate


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## Kaldak (Nov 8, 2022)

Turnout of over 85% seems impressive. Anyone seeing that elsewhere?

I also don't understand how you can order more ballots on the day of voting. 

Dane County voter turnout could reach at least 85%, clerk says


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## Marauder06 (Nov 8, 2022)

Kaldak said:


> Turnout of over 85% seems impressive. Anyone seeing that elsewhere?
> 
> I also don't understand how you can order more ballots on the day of voting.
> 
> Dane County voter turnout could reach at least 85%, clerk says


At my polling station, they physically printed the ballots on the spot.


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## 757 (Nov 8, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590088202408189952
If what she is claiming is true, those are some bad optics.


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## TLDR20 (Nov 8, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> I think it’s red shift not wave GOP gets the house but not the senate



Technically the GOP had the senate.


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## Chopstick (Nov 8, 2022)

I was listening to a couple of my co-workers talking about elections today.  Neither of them have registered nor ever voted.  I was just stunned.  They are in their 30s, both women.  I was at a loss.   So I asked them why have you never voted? One said she didn't understand politics and the other one said she didn't know how to register and didn't think her voting would matter regardless. I showed them both how to register so they can vote in future elections.  I also explained that PA is a closed primary state and in order to be able to cast a ballot in a primary election ( literally had to explain that as well) they had to declare as Republican or Democrat vs.  Independent/No affiliation.   They looked at me like I had just disclosed the knowledge of the Universe.    SMH
As for me, I voted in my new county for the first time with my shiny new voter registration card.  I had to also show my photo ID and my PA change of address card, all of which I had no problem doing.  I found the process a little different than in Allegheny County and much more efficient.   They used a different type of machine here, which involved selecting your choices on a touch screen then printing out your ballot that you took to another machine to deposit your completed ballot.  Pretty fancy compared to the forms and  machines in Allegheny. 
For the record, I did not vote for Fetterman.


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## AWP (Nov 8, 2022)

LOL...CNN's already had to call the race for DeSantis and Rubio in FL. I can hear the gnashing of teeth.


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## DA SWO (Nov 8, 2022)

Chopstick said:


> I was listening to a couple of my co-workers talking about elections today.  Neither of them have registered nor ever voted.  I was just stunned.  They are in their 30s, both women.  I was at a loss.   So I asked them why have you never voted? One said she didn't understand politics and the other one said she didn't know how to register and didn't think her voting would matter regardless. I showed them both how to register so they can vote in future elections.  I also explained that PA is a closed primary state and in order to be able to cast a ballot in a primary election ( literally had to explain that as well) they had to declare as Republican or Democrat vs.  Independent/No affiliation.   They looked at me like I had just disclosed the knowledge of the Universe.    SMH
> As for me, I voted in my new county for the first time with my shiny new voter registration card.  I had to also show my photo ID and my PA change of address card, all of which I had no problem doing.  I found the process a little different than in Allegheny County and much more efficient.   They used a different type of machine here, which involved selecting your choices on a touch screen then printing out your ballot that you took to another machine to deposit your completed ballot.  Pretty fancy compared to the forms and  machines in Allegheny.
> For the record, I did not vote for Fetterman.


Similar machines where I vote.


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## amlove21 (Nov 8, 2022)

The tears. The tears are flowing. 

Miami-Dade county alone was delicious.


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## Jaknight (Nov 8, 2022)

Why do they keep running Robert in Texas??? It’s just embarrassing


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## Raptor (Nov 8, 2022)

Jaknight said:


> Why do they keep running Robert in Texas??? It’s just embarrassing


Pretty sure he only stepped in this time because there was literally nobody else wanting to.


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## Dame (Nov 9, 2022)

Nevada is acting like all the ballots are being held at Area 51. Not a single report as of 9:30 p.m. local time.


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## Muppet (Nov 9, 2022)

It's astounding that anyone with a brain would vote for Fetterman, a man, clearly with a cognitive impairment. Goes to show you, fuckers will vote party lines and not for who is a "better candidate". What a joke for our state. Fetterman pandered to the black community and retards fell for his "blue collar look", wearing carhart, fucker has never worked an honest day.

Shapiro. I'm not surprised. Leftists made it sound like abortion was a fucking civil right. I looked at my pocket constitution I carry. Nowhere does it say, abortion is a right in our 10 bill of rights. To be honest, Mastroianno was not great neither.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 9, 2022)

Muppet said:


> Fetterman pandered



My dude, that's 100 percent of what politics is.

"The other guy panders, but my candidate is a paragon of working for the people."


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## amlove21 (Nov 9, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> My dude, that's 100 percent of what politics is.
> 
> "The other guy panders, but my candidate is a paragon of working for the people."


Fetterman has brain damage. I get what you’re saying but a better example is needed. 

It’s really interesting that Florida has common sense voting laws, very little mail in ballots, tight Election Day (not election month) procedures- and lo and behold, the republicans win by 20 in areas that used to be blue +10 2 years ago. 

Meanwhile; terrible dem candidates are squeaking by in areas during the midst of the worst economy, crime and social environment we have ever seen, where the above rules aren’t in place. 

Yeah, nothing to see here. I’ll just wait for a new network to explain to me, the dumb voter, how all this is normal and requires no further exploration.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 9, 2022)

Weird thing with state ballot issues:

Looks like mushrooms and other psychedelic plants will become legal in colorado, but I can't buy wine/liqour in a grocery store or get it delivered to my house.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 9, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Fetterman has brain damage. I get what you’re saying but a better example is needed.
> 
> It’s really interesting that Florida has common sense voting laws, very little mail in ballots, tight Election Day (not election month) procedures- and lo and behold, the republicans win by 20 in areas that used to be blue +10 2 years ago.
> 
> ...



I think half of the members of our government have some form of mental degradation in the form of dementia/alzheimer's, so I guess he just doesn't move the needle for me have speech issues.

A big thing in Florida with that change has to do with Redistricting. The new map gave weight to a few more districts and made a few more less competitive. 

As far as other states, shit gets weird depending on the law with mail in ballots. Some state require ballots be received by election day, but others just require ballots be postmarked by that date. Given that mail-in traditionally leans D, I can see them slightly catching up in those states.
I know states get wide leeway to run elections, but this discrepancy with mail-in dates should probably be standardized.


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## AWP (Nov 9, 2022)

Maybe it speaks to my bias, but it speaks volumes when I look at this board regardless of political slant and think we are far and away smarter than the average American.

Most of us at least. Some you stand out in a sea full of idiots. Some of you were feet first with the cord around your necks and it shows.

———
Dr. Oz losing to a stroke victim with obvious impairments has me LMAO. Dude lost to an unripe apple.


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## amlove21 (Nov 9, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I think half of the members of our government have some form of mental degradation in the form of dementia/alzheimer's, so I guess he just doesn't move the needle for me have speech issues.
> 
> A big thing in Florida with that change has to do with Redistricting. The new map gave weight to a few more districts and made a few more less competitive.
> 
> ...


No, I get it. What you just described (the mail in ballots) simply didn't happen like, 4 years ago. Obama was talking about the corruption and risk of mail in ballots in 2012. 

Somehow, Brazil, France, Germany, and 20 other countries can hold elections and produce results in 1 day. Minus what should be a small number of abnsentee/military ballots or thosee that legit cant leave their house to vote in person, mail in balloting shouldn't be a thing. At all. 

And all the states that have these rules- say, voting months in advance before you even see the candidates debate- that "leand dem" just also happen to be Dem led, do they not? No one finds that weird?


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## amlove21 (Nov 9, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Weird thing with state ballot issues:
> 
> Looks like mushrooms and other psychedelic plants will become legal in colorado, but I can't buy wine/liqour in a grocery store or get it delivered to my house.


Double like for this one. Maryland also has legal mushrooms, just hit the yes button on marijuana too.


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## Blizzard (Nov 9, 2022)

Marauder06 said:


> At my polling station, they physically printed the ballots on the spot.


Huh?  All of this is just goofy.

I don't understand why this is made unnecessarily complicated in some places.  It's not as though a new candidate just snuck onto the ballot.  These things are decided weeks...months...in advance.  Perhaps there's an exception to that somewhere but I don't know where that would be.


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## TLDR20 (Nov 9, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Huh?  All of this is just goofy.
> 
> I don't understand why this is made unnecessarily complicated in some places.  It's not as though a new candidate just snuck onto the ballot.  These things are decided weeks...months...in advance.  Perhaps there's an exception to that somewhere but I don't know where that would be.



Less chance for fraud if the ballot is printed when the person checks in. Makes sense to me rather than having 1000’s of blank ballots for all the people who don’t show up.


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## AWP (Nov 13, 2022)

Not much of a red wave.


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## Polar Bear (Nov 13, 2022)

It was suppose to be HUUUGE


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## pardus (Nov 13, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> It was suppose to be HUUUGE


You mean YUUUGE


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## Intel Nerd (Nov 14, 2022)

I'm from Arizona. Currently PCS'd out to the East Coast. The state called to confirm my address for my mail in ballot. They didn't send it.

So Katie Hobbs, the Democrat Secretary of State running the elections process, who is also running for office as a Democratic, didn't send me my ballot.

#VotingRights or whatever

FML


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## Blizzard (Nov 14, 2022)

How, in 2022, 5 days after the election, can some districts (see CA in link below) still have less than 40% of the vote counted?!  This is completely mind-boggling.  When did voting and tallying become so complex?

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...n&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false


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## Polar Bear (Nov 14, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> How, in 2022, 5 days after the election, can some districts (see CA in link below) still have less than 40% of the vote counted?!  This is completely mind-boggling.  When did voting and tallying become so complex?
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...n&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false


One for you, 1,2,3 for me, 1, 2 for you, 1 for me…..


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## Devildoc (Nov 14, 2022)

I am now firmly an election denier.  "After days of counting, gee, we have juuuuust enough votes to win.  So worry.  Better luck next time."  

Riiiiiiighttttt........


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## AWP (Nov 14, 2022)

Let's say the elections are absolutely, 100% on the up-and-up. No fraud, tampering, electronic manipulation, nothing, 100% legit.

You can't tell me the optics aren't dogshit. They are horrible, maybe even worse than 2020. It looks bad, it sounds bad, and if your party is on the losing side doesn't your loss look tainted? I don't give a shit what party/ faction you've sworn your blood oath to, step back for a minute and tell me this doesn't look bad to maybe even horrible.

Regardless of whether your tribe won or not, please stop with the "there's nothing wrong, everything's good" nonsense. It isn't good. Even if everything is legit, it looks bad and needs to be addressed. Shut up with stolen elections and fraud and whatnot. You are fighting a losing battle and the more you complain about your loss the less likely people are willing to address the issue above. Step back and go into conflict resolution mode because this shit needs to stop.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 14, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> How, in 2022, 5 days after the election, can some districts (see CA in link below) still have less than 40% of the vote counted?!  This is completely mind-boggling.  When did voting and tallying become so complex?
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...n&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false


Did you happen to notice that in almost all of those states they either use rank choice voting or allow votes to be mailed election day?

This seems new for two reasons. The first is increased scrutiny about our election process and state laws. This isn't something I think really became widespread on the average American's level until the last election.
The second is we're seeing a larger amount of close races than we'd be expecting right now, so whereas a race would normally be called without all the votes in (DeSantis for example) we've got situations like the one local to me where there are less than 1000 votes separating the candidates, in what was expected to be a 9+ point district for one of them.

There are legit reasons to look at our process and see that it needs improved. Florida's system is one of the better ones for speed. Their laws allow them to begin counting mail-in/absentee ballots when they are received, not wait until election day. That allowed for 1.1 million ballots to be rreceived and counted almost 10 days before the election. If we assume everyone voted for the governor, that's a decent number of the 7.7 million total that did it days before the election. Clearly their system is one other states should replicate.

ETA: That NBC link is actually a good example of what I'm talking about with close races. Florida is still counting thousands of votes like other states, but the remaining votes won't change the results. Having a GOP blowout of Dem candidates is what made them seem so fast.


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## AWP (Nov 14, 2022)

Only Florida Man can save our election system.

Let that sink in.


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## Blizzard (Nov 14, 2022)

Polar Bear said:


> One for you, 1,2,3 for me, 1, 2 for you, 1 for me…..


I'm thinking they ran out of fingers and toes and aren't sure what to do.


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## amlove21 (Nov 14, 2022)

Congrats to the senate democrats for suddenly pulling ahead and winning surprising victories by the perfect margins 5 days after the polls closed, in the dead of night, only in states with mail in voting for the 2nd time in a row. We have never seen anything like it in 244 years. 

What the literal fuck.


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## Ooh-Rah (Nov 14, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Careful Brother. Jan 6th protestors are still in prison for having those thoughts.


Ummm…I’m ’pretty sure’ they are in prison for more than just thoughts.


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## Devildoc (Nov 14, 2022)

Bypass said:


> Like what? Trespassing? Breaking and entering? People have burned down cities and murdered other human beings and have had less consequences/repercussions.



For sure the difference between 99% of the people who were arrested/charged at the Capitol and, say, ANTIFA/BLS are night and day.


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## Bypass (Nov 14, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> For sure the difference between 99% of the people who were arrested/charged at the Capitol and, say, ANTIFA/BLS are night and day.


Hey I'm sorry man I'm dropping out of the conversation. I shouldn't have said anything.  Saying ANYTHING on the internet anymore scares me. Never know who might be watching nowadays. I deleted my previous posts.

......................

You win. You have your dictatorship. Now leave me alone.


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## Bypass (Nov 14, 2022)

I hope the left wins control of the House to go along with the senate and the presidency. Then they will have no one else to blame when it all goes to shit or should I say China.


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## Blizzard (Nov 14, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Did you happen to notice that in almost all of those states they either use rank choice voting or allow votes to be mailed election day?
> 
> This seems new for two reasons. The first is increased scrutiny about our election process and state laws. This isn't something I think really became widespread on the average American's level until the last election.
> The second is we're seeing a larger amount of close races than we'd be expecting right now, so whereas a race would normally be called without all the votes in (DeSantis for example) we've got situations like the one local to me where there are less than 1000 votes separating the candidates, in what was expected to be a 9+ point district for one of them.
> ...


Doesn't matter the reasoning.  There's simply no way to justify why, 5 - now 6 days - after the election, less than 40% of the vote is counted.  That's UNSAT by any measure.  That's a broken system.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Doesn't matter the reasoning.  There's simply no way to justify why, 5 - now 6 days - after the election, less than 40% of the vote is counted.  That's UNSAT by any measure.  That's a broken system.



"That's a system working as designed and I don't like it." 

Cool, that's a legit take to have. I don't disagree with you at all on that. My point is states get broad leeway to run shit as they want. There isn't a federal law that says they have to have all votes counted in one day. It taking states that have broad mail-in ballot deadlines/cure periods isn't some sinister plot to steal elections, but it isn't a good thing either.

I'd be happy to see an election counting system that is run more like Florida in allowing early voting/counting to prevent this issue. 
Further speed up elections by doing something like Colorado where everyone is sent a ballot, but just create two types. A "drop off" ballot sent to everyone that still requires going to a polling location and being verified, and a "mail in" ballot that must be requested. "Drop off" ballots not tracked at the county location don't get to count.


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## Blizzard (Nov 15, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> "That's a system working as designed and I don't like it."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I hear ya and you're correct, "I don't like it".  My issue isn't whether states are _required_ to complete tallying votes in a single day.  They should _want_ to complete counting in a single day for the reasons you noted.  It avoids all the speculation and conspiracy discussions. 

I know we're basically on the same page here, but again, when did voting become so complex and why? 

There's absolutely no need for it to be this way.  We live in a world with technology that allows us to have inexpensive real time, video communications with people in space and around the world.  Our news cycle is virtually instantaneous and constant.  ScanTron forms have been used for decades to score critical exams with 99.9+% accuracy.  When I place my ballot in the machine, I immediately see it register electronically.  So, again, the idea that we need days to tally votes is just absurd.  And mail in voting - in 2022?  C'mon man.  While I'm generally a big supporter of States rights, in the case of federal elections, at least, there needs to be a simple standardized approach that eliminates all this nonsense.  If some local election board wants to screw around for a couple weeks with some silly way to tally a handful of votes for their school board race, that's on them.

Simple solutions and common sense, that's all I ask.  A pipe dream, I know.


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## amlove21 (Nov 15, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> "That's a system working as designed and I don't like it."
> 
> Cool, that's a legit take to have. I don't disagree with you at all on that. My point is states get broad leeway to run shit as they want. There isn't a federal law that says they have to have all votes counted in one day. It taking states that have broad mail-in ballot deadlines/cure periods isn't some sinister plot to steal elections, but it isn't a good thing either.
> 
> ...


What benefit does early voting provide? Absentee ballots/mail in for military only or those that legit can not report to the station is as far as I will go for absentee ballots. But what could you possibly use to justify early voting? 

I love that we are just completely ignoring the fact that massive mail in voting didn't happen before 2020. Ever. This is most certainly *not* how the system was designed to work. There are no examples of this sort of thing in our entire history. 

No drop off ballots. No mailed ballots. Go to the polling location, and vote. Or, present your valid reason (disability, military service) you can't get to the ballot. When you get there, present an ID. That's "the system working".


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## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

Early voting and mail in voting has been a thing for pretty much the past 40 years; Texas of all places was the first to start early in person voting back in the 80s.

Just because you weren't aware of it until last election doesn't mean it's new.

"Go to the polling location" isn't as simple as that for a lot of people.

Ever been in a place financially where you literally couldn't afford to take off work but were also scheduled throughout the polling hours?
Cause I was in 2018.
Was I not allowed to vote because I was poor?

I'd have missed the election without the way Colorado runs its system. That's not as an uncommon situation as it might be thought.


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## AWP (Nov 15, 2022)

What percentage of ballots cast are early votes and how does that stack up over time? If there's an increase, what changed?

I'm not saying the point isn't worth arguing, but maybe some historical context matters here?


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## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

AWP said:


> What percentage of ballots cast are early votes and how does that stack up over time? If there's an increase, what changed?
> 
> I'm not saying the point isn't worth arguing, but maybe some historical context matters here?



Looks like it was 69(nice) million the week before the 2020 election, and 70% of the total vote was early in 2020.
seems like in previous two its closer to 40%, and has been trending upwards since 2000.

The biggest reason it's probably increased is due to ease and accessibility.


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## amlove21 (Nov 15, 2022)

@Cookie_ 

Didn't say early voting wasn't a thing; didn't say mail in voting wasn't a thing. 

1- I asked what benefit you think early voting affords, as opposed to the remarkable downside (voting before you have enough/any information on a candidate, how it perverts the intent of the process by opening it up to illegality). 

2- Yeah, mail in voting existed, and your snide condescending shot at me "not knowing something" is noted. I'll put it on your tab. In terms of sheer volume, procedures used, systems employed- no, it never existed in it's form that we are seeing it today. The justification for this move in 2020 was the cough that isn't a thing anymore. That's not the case now, so why not go back to 40%? What's driving the change?

As for ease and accountability (and your appeal to emotion, poor you)- freedom comes with cost, as always. This process isn't here to be equitable to everyone no matter what. It's here to produce a fair and just election process, for the *most* people. Not *all* people. 

As long as there aren't _verifiable, systemic restrictions keeping people from voting (which there are not),_ then your inability to vote in that election sounds more like a scheduling problem between you and your boss, and not a reason to allow 2 weeks worth of ballot harvesting in the name of making sure one party continues to win.


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## Kaldak (Nov 15, 2022)

Hell, I'm in a wheelchair. A power wheelchair, so not the kind you can fold up and put in the back seat. I vote in a rural area too.

I'm fortunate enough to have a vehicle (thank you VA) that allows me to drive and accommodates my chair. Most people don't.

I looked into options for voting had I not had my own vehicle. There were transportation options provided by the county and state. There were private organizations providing transportation as well. These are power wheelchair accessible options. All for Nov 8th and at a multitude of times.

I voted in person on November 8th.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 15, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> verifiable, systemic restrictions keeping people from voting (which there are not)


Hey, I want to make it clear that I'm not disagreeing with you on this point. Election security is a thing that still needs to be considered and accounted for.
I think early in-person voting is beneficial for allowing the maximum number of people to vote. 

To the points in #1: I don't think early voting necessarily means voters will blindly vote anymore than they already do. Our election process is increasingly becoming a "check my team" box. 
I can say (for me) that I like getting my CO ballot early, because I can actually dive into the propositions on the ballot I'm not aware of. 

To point 2: it's been trending upwards. If it's something the voters want, it's something they'll keep doing. Last election was an outlier of growth, but how many people who voted like that are going to push for it to continue?




amlove21 said:


> I'll put it on your tab.



What am I up to, about 8 beers now? A full bottle of good whiskey?

For real, if you're ever in the Springs or I'm passing through where you are I'll get you a drink. Can chat about something other than politics; Favorite coaster at Cedar Point or something.


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## SpongeBob*24 (Nov 15, 2022)

Mail in ballots [military] and early voting [in person] should be the exception, not the norm as I understood @amlove21 to have stated.  

I voted early because I knew I would be TDY.  I went in person, and did my greatest duty as a citizen.  

People are weird and dont understand how important the right to vote is.  If they did...they wouldn't rely on the post office.  It's not like Door Dash... .


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## AWP (Nov 15, 2022)

Trump just filed to run in 2024.

I'm in it for the chaos.


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## Gunz (Nov 16, 2022)

AWP said:


> Trump just filed to run in 2024.
> 
> I'm in it for the chaos.



Chaos and comedy all in one orange ball. File it under Ross Perot. How to split the party in one easy lesson and guarantee a win for the Democrats.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 16, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Chaos and comedy all in one orange ball. File it under Ross Perot. How to split the party in one easy lesson and guarantee a win for the Democrats.



Whether the party splits on not will probably depend on if DeSantis choose to run or wait until 2028.
Worst case scenario (for GOP) is probably both of them running and DeSantis getting the nomination. That'd for sure become a Perot situation.


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## Devildoc (Nov 16, 2022)

We have a lot of time and a crapload of primaries to whittle this down, unless we have a contested convention.  Now THAT would be fun.


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## Devildoc (Nov 16, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Whether the party splits on not will probably depend on if DeSantis choose to run or wait until 2028.
> Worst case scenario (for GOP) is probably both of them running and DeSantis getting the nomination. That'd for sure become a Perot situation.



If one of them runs as an independent?  That's the only way this would be a third party situation; otherwise, it could get sorted out in a very ugly brokered convention.


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## amlove21 (Nov 16, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> What am I up to, about 8 beers now? A full bottle of good whiskey?
> 
> For real, if you're ever in the Springs or I'm passing through where you are I'll get you a drink. Can chat about something other than politics; Favorite coaster at Cedar Point or something.


Beers on me, my friend. I will definitely hit you up if I am through there.


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## Kraut783 (Nov 16, 2022)

Republicans have won control of the house....

Republicans win control of the House, NBC News projects, overtaking Democrats by a slim margin


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## TLDR20 (Nov 16, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Republicans have won control of the house....
> 
> Republicans win control of the House, NBC News projects, overtaking Democrats by a slim margin



It took so long to tabulate the results, how can we believe it is real. 


/S


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## JedisonsDad (Nov 16, 2022)

I find it interesting that google won’t give Alaskan Senate to the republicans, despite the fact that the top two  candidates are both Republican, with 43.3 and 43.1 percent of the vote. That would give them 50 seats in senate


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## Devildoc (Nov 16, 2022)

JedisonsDad said:


> I find it interesting that google won’t give Alaskan Senate to the republicans, despite the fact that the top two  candidates are both Republican, with 43.3 and 43.1 percent of the vote. That would give them 50 seats in senate



Media is calling it a republican hold regardless of who wins.


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## pardus (Nov 17, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593303689917337600


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## Gunz (Nov 17, 2022)

pardus said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593303689917337600



That’s great, but she needs to GTFO and retire.


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## Dame (Nov 17, 2022)

Gunz said:


> That’s great, but she needs to GTFO and retire.


Baby steps.


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## AWP (Nov 17, 2022)

Making an announcement like that really hammered home that she’s moving on.


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## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

Gunz said:


> That’s great, but she needs to GTFO and retire.


Be careful what you wish for.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 18, 2022)

Kraut783 said:


> Republicans have won control of the house....
> 
> Republicans win control of the House, NBC News projects, overtaking Democrats by a slim margin


I like to see that, but it's not as definitive overall as I would have liked.  And I was hoping for better in the Senate.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

Can't wait till Gavin Newsome is in the White House. This is step one. Little off topic because there won't be an election, my b.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Can't wait till Gavin Newsome is in the White House. This is step one. Little off topic because there won't be an election, my b.


I was expecting Zuckerberg to be our first openly reptilian president until he started dumping billions in his dogshit VR chat.

Trump (to an extent) opened the door for celebrity candidates, so I'm waiting to see that go to President Johnson and VP Hart 2028.

Doesn't matter party, they just have to run as moderate D/R and they'd probably win on goodwill and name alone.


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Can't wait till Gavin Newsome is in the White House. This is step one. Little off topic because there won't be an election, my b.



I read that Newsome is the popular choice to run for Pelosi's seat.



Cookie_ said:


> I was expecting Zuckerberg to be our first openly reptilian president until he started dumping billions in his dogshit VR chat.
> 
> *Trump (to an extent) opened the door for celebrity candidates,* so I'm waiting to see that go to President Johnson and VP Hart 2028.
> 
> Doesn't matter party, they just have to run as moderate D/R and they'd probably win on goodwill and name alone.



I remember one of the democrats' knock against Reagan was that even though he had been governor, he was really "just an actor."  There was a lot of crap being slung about him being a celebrity instead of a politician and that POTUS was beyond his capability.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> I was expecting Zuckerberg to be our first openly reptilian president until he started dumping billions in his dogshit VR chat.
> 
> Trump (to an extent) opened the door for celebrity candidates, so I'm waiting to see that go to President Johnson and VP Hart 2028.
> 
> Doesn't matter party, they just have to run as moderate D/R and they'd probably win on goodwill and name alone.


Let's just play hypotheticals. 

Newsome takes Speaker. Kamala Harris has an unforeseen illness/personal issue, forcing her to step down. Newsome fills VP role. 

The Biden impeachment (or serious health issues) finally catch up to the President; he steps down. Newsome steps up. 

No election, no primary- but he's the incumbent in 24 against (now) Trump but (hopefully) DeSantis and Gabbard/Haley/Other.

Just, you know, mark this for later.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Let's just play hypotheticals.
> 
> Newsome takes Speaker. Kamala Harris has an unforeseen illness/personal issue, forcing her to step down. Newsome fills VP role.
> 
> ...



Sounds like the plot of an older Clancy novel, which means it's probably about perfect for out current political system.

Hard agree about hoping for DeSantis. Obviously not my party, but I don't think the country is going to manage another Trump election win/lose. A portion of the population is gonna lose their shit regardless of outcome if he's involved.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

That's what makes it so believable. The only person worse in polling (than the Pres) is Harris. They have been waiting and hoping for an errant bus (she LOVES buses) to stop her cackling; there will be a space soon, I would wager. 

The only thing the Dems have been waiting for (before throwing Biden under the bus) was midterms. He's not as much of a lame duck as he could have been, but he's gonna be super ineffective and everyone but Biden knows he's not running again. Literally anyone smokes him, maybe minus Trump, who is too polarizing and draws as many votes against as he does for. 

And here we are. Unfortunately for everyone on Earth, we have to deal with this nonsense for 700+ days.


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

California governor Newsome?

If Pelosi stepped down as senator, Newsome would have to resign as governor, the California legislature would have to appoint him to fill out the remainder of her seat.  That would get him in Washington, but not speaker.


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## TLDR20 (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> That's what makes it so believable. The only person worse in polling (than the Pres) is Harris. They have been waiting and hoping for an errant bus (she LOVES buses) to stop her cackling; there will be a space soon, I would wager.
> 
> The only thing the Dems have been waiting for (before throwing Biden under the bus) was midterms. He's not as much of a lame duck as he could have been, but he's gonna be super ineffective and everyone but Biden knows he's not running again. Literally anyone smokes him, maybe minus Trump, who is too polarizing and draws as many votes against as he does for.
> 
> And here we are. Unfortunately for everyone on Earth, we have to deal with this nonsense for 700+ days.



I might vote for a conservative President that isn’t Trump.


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

Will Trump run his presidential campaign parallel to an investigation by a special counsel?  I say yes.

AG Garland names special counsel to investigate Trump on Mar-a-Lago documents, Jan. 6


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

TLDR20 said:


> I might vote for a conservative President that isn’t Trump.


You and millions of others. I do have an issue with people voting for an objectively worse candidate just because they don't like someone (see; brain damaged Pennsylvania candidate), because you're putting party lines ahead of the country, but that's what freedom allows for. In for a penny, and all that.


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## Gunz (Nov 18, 2022)

Trump won't get the nomination. He's damaged goods. DeSantis is on a major roll right now and gaining popularity every day within the GOP as the new Ronald Reagan. 

Why Ron DeSantis can lead a modern ‘Reagan coalition’ in 2024


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

Gunz said:


> Trump won't get the nomination. He's damaged goods. DeSantis is on a major roll right now and gaining popularity every day within the GOP as the new Ronald Reagan.
> 
> Why Ron DeSantis can lead a modern ‘Reagan coalition’ in 2024



Well, there's what Trump _should_ do, and what Trump _will_ do.  He _should _bow out gracefully and support another candidate (notably, DeSantis).  But you know he won't.  His ego won't let him.


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## TLDR20 (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> You and millions of others. I do have an issue with people voting for an objectively worse candidate just because they don't like someone (see; brain damaged Pennsylvania candidate), because you're putting party lines ahead of the country, but that's what freedom allows for. In for a penny, and all that.



To be fair I said “might”. If it were against Biden or Harris and the candidate was good and not Trump. 

In my state I can’t vote I. The republican primary anyway. So I just get to watch who they pick.


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## AWP (Nov 18, 2022)

Politically, DeSantis is a polished Trump. I'm sure they differ here and there, but make no mistake, DeSantis is Trump with self control.

In RDS' favor he has a semi-retarded but attractive wife with cancer, whom he has no problem exploiting. Melania is hot, but over The Donald's shit; Casey won't side eye Ron. RDS wore a uniform unlike the bone spur dude. RDS is polished and measured, not the erratic, frothing MAGA 1.0. RDS came to power in part because of Trump, but Trump is astute enough to see RDS as arguably his greatest rival. Trump knows he created a contender and is trying to chip away at Ron. 

The main question is will RDS wait until 2028 or run in 2024? I used to think the latter, but DeSantis is smart and he probably smells blood in the water.


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

Colorado Democrat candidate for HoR concedes race to Lauren Boebert, another republican pick up in the House.

Colorado election results: Boebert opponent Frisch concedes race ahead of likely recount


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

It's only 'election denying' if you are a Republican, no?  Peolsi's possible replacement for minority leader denied Trump won 2016.

Election denier Hakeem Jeffries could replace Pelosi as House Dem leader


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## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> California governor Newsome?
> 
> If Pelosi stepped down as senator, Newsome would have to resign as governor, the California legislature would have to appoint him to fill out the remainder of her seat.  That would get him in Washington, but not speaker.


Yeah, that confused me as well (not difficult to do).  I wasn't sure how @amlove21 was getting Newsome out of the governor's office and into Congress in time for the 2024 election in his make-believe scenario.


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## Cookie_ (Nov 18, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> Colorado Democrat candidate for HoR concedes race to Lauren Boebert, another republican pick up in the House.
> 
> Colorado election results: Boebert opponent Frisch concedes race ahead of likely recount


Honestly surprised her race was as close as it was. Redistricting took away some of the more liberal ski town counties (like Vail) and gave her some more conservative ones down south.

She should have been up 10 points at least.


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## Marauder06 (Nov 18, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> It's only 'XXXXXXXXXXX' if you are a Republican, no?


Fixed it.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> Yeah, that confused me as well (not difficult to do).  I wasn't sure how @amlove21 was getting Newsome out of the governor's office and into Congress in time for the 2024 election in his make-believe scenario.


Don't think too hard. Just let it happen.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

Devildoc said:


> California governor Newsome?
> 
> If Pelosi stepped down as senator, Newsome would have to resign as governor, the California legislature would have to appoint him to fill out the remainder of her seat.  That would get him in Washington, but not speaker.


Quit putting your facts in here!!! Let's do this- don't need the speaker step- he just goes right in to VP for Harris.


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## Blizzard (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Don't think too hard. Just let it happen.


That's usually how it goes.


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## amlove21 (Nov 18, 2022)

Blizzard said:


> That's usually how it goes.


You and me both, my dude. You and me both.


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## Devildoc (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Quit putting your facts in here!!! Let's do this- don't need the speaker step- he just goes right in to VP for Harris.



That pesky political science degree coming home to roost.  Weird how the only class I recall worth a damn is the first one, American Government.


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## AWP (Nov 18, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Don't think too hard. Just let it happen.



Bite the pillow, I’m coming in.


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## amlove21 (Dec 1, 2022)

Nothing to see here. 

Wisconsin lawmaker questions why military ballot voting dropped over 80% in 2022


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## AWP (Dec 1, 2022)

amlove21 said:


> Nothing to see here.
> 
> Wisconsin lawmaker questions why military ballot voting dropped over 80% in 2022



There's a lot wrong with this.
1. You have a state where you can create a military ballot out of thin air
2. BUT military voting declined by 80%?

A battleground state, one that cost Clinton the election in 2016...and the shit above exists? Insane. But, digging into the link, I found something almost as stupid.

Brandtjen clarifies source of her military voting numbers



> After The Daily News could not match Brandtjen’s numbers provided in a Tuesday press release announcing the drop in military voting, Brandtjen has since contacted the newspaper and shared her data.
> 
> *Brandtjen, R-Menomonee Falls, had conducted a specific data request with WEC, which comes with a fee*, in order to get *a detailed list* of all registered military voters as of Nov. 21. *The Daily News acquired its data directly from the WEC website via publicly available documents*, but counted all issued military absentee ballots issued rather than those returned and approved. In both cases, a sharp decline in active military voting was observed from 2020 to 2022.



Where is the Space Rock of Absolution? You have to pay for the "real" data because a PUBLIC body won't publish the data. A "news" organization that doesn't know the above is a thing or knew and chose to "do it live" with whatever numbers it could find...then it challenged the Rep. to make her data public when it differed from the "news" organization.

To recap, in the "great" State of Wisconsin, you can fake a military ballot and STILL have a decline in voting. The government organization responsible for that data makes you pay to see the actual numbers which means the publicly available information is incorrect or incomplete. An elected official had to pay for that data. A news organization decided to call out said elected official when their numbers didn't match...instead of emailing or calling their office first.

And people wonder why I don't trust anyone and hate just about everyone? Election Results, please...

I don't care if we're talking about a presidential election, prom king/ queen, or if 4 out of 5 dentists really chose Dentyne, I will not entertain a discussion if the parties can't admit that fraud, corruption, bias, and rank incompetence exist in elections. Don't tell me an election is legit, tell me it is...93% legit or 97% legal or whatever. Don't look me in the eye and tell me we can trust the election results, don't play yourself like that.

ETA: amlove received a like because...what emoji does one use for that story? All of them apply, so I went with low effort.


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## Cookie_ (Dec 4, 2022)

Will calling for suspension of the Constitution to declare himself president because of the Twitter story lead republicans to turn on Trump in favor of DeSantis?

https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/109449803240069864

There have been a few comments either calling this Bonkers or stating the GOP should push for Article 5 convention of states to rewrite the Constitution.

Expect more will come out from senior GOP leaders tomorrow after the coordinate a response.

ETA: Added screenshot in case the link doesn't work. TruthSocial gets buggy sometimes


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## amlove21 (Dec 4, 2022)

Article 5 has been long overdue, but not in this context/case.  

As for the former president’s idea here? No. Not only no, but fuck you and no. Eat a bag of dicks. 

If there is a problem with politics in America, you disband the politics, both sides, not the constitution. And I’m willing to get as violent as you’d like to emphasize that point. “When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty.” - Thomas Jefferson. 

DeSantis is already light years ahead of Trump; Trump declared too early, got suckered into the dinner with Ye and Fuentes. Even the branding was off (“Desanctimonious” fell hilariously flat). He’s dead in the water. Just have to wait for rank and file to catch up. 

There’s a remarkable righting of the ship coming on both sides- wish it was a reckoning, but I’ll accept a changing of the guard.


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## Ooh-Rah (Dec 4, 2022)

Cookie_ said:


> Will calling for suspension of the Constitution to declare himself president because of the Twitter story lead republicans to turn on Trump in favor of DeSantis?


As a Republican, I cannot help reference this Star Wars scene. I believed in him, I really thought he was going to lead the Republican Party into years of prosperity. Instead he’s divided us (I’ll likely get hate for this post) and that division is costing us elections.


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## ThunderHorse (Dec 4, 2022)

So, I think I needed to vote absentee in Arizona instead of registering in Texas...because the wonderful people of Arizona voted in a racist as Governor. 

https://www.12news.com/article/news...hobbs/75-67f8e9ef-ca1d-42ed-81ad-8475b80c2c70

Fired staffer says she will file notice of claim against gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs

This real piece of shit used this situation in campaign emails and attempted to slander the claimant after she lost two different jury trials. Maybe Kari Lake was a bit too close to Trump or maybe too many Californians moved into Arizona and changed the dynamics of the state.


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## R.Caerbannog (Dec 5, 2022)

All this time and Orange Man bad is still living rent free in some of y'alls heads. 

Meme fits:


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## pardus (Dec 5, 2022)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599807947508310029


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## 757 (Dec 6, 2022)

His quote actually made me think of this part of star wars tbh.


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