# The Finance/Retirement Thread



## BloodStripe (Feb 5, 2019)

Let's talk retirement for a moment. We need to be educating people better with regards to 401k's and Roth accounts. Many people currently are in a lower tax bracket than they will be later in life. If you are at a low tax bracket, a Roth account will be better for you. Conversely, if you are in a higher tax bracket, a 401k account is better. I feel that far too many people are currently better off going Roth but don't because we are short sighted with regards to tax savings.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Feb 5, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> Let's talk retirement for a moment. We need to be educating people better with regards to 401k's and Roth accounts. Many people currently are in a lower tax bracket than they will be later in life. If you are at a low tax bracket, a Roth account will be better for you. Conversely, if you are in a higher tax bracket, a 401k account is better. I feel that far too many people are currently better off going Roth but don't because we are short sighted with regards to tax savings.



You hit the nail on the head with this one. There could be a whole thread on this stuff.


----------



## BloodStripe (Feb 5, 2019)

Isiah6:8 said:


> You hit the nail on the head with this one. There could be a whole thread on this stuff.



Agreed. It obviously isn't as simple as what I said, but in general terms it will work better for more people. Plus we will gain more tax income now as a country.


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 5, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> Let's talk retirement for a moment. We need to be educating people better with regards to 401k's and Roth accounts. Many people currently are in a lower tax bracket than they will be later in life. If you are at a low tax bracket, a Roth account will be better for you. Conversely, if you are in a higher tax bracket, a 401k account is better. I feel that far too many people are currently better off going Roth but don't because we are short sighted with regards to tax savings.



We have single income, six kids.  Right now I am in the lowest tax bracket there is; as the kids move out and I can't deduct them, my tax liability increases.  We moved almost all of our retirement into Roths.  I am also vested in a pension plan where I work, which won't be much even if I stay 30 years, but between the two will be OK.


----------



## Cookie_ (Feb 5, 2019)

I agree, a personal finance/retirement thread is a good idea. Didn't find one in the search, so one should get started.

If I knew 1/2 the stuff while I was active that I know now, I'd probably be 3/4 of the way to a stable retirement.


----------



## Brill (Feb 5, 2019)

I’m anti-Roth as I believe my retirement income/tax liability will be severely less than current levels, even after moving to a tax free state (NH or FL).

Plan is TSP, SS, Fed retirement, and reserve retirement at 59.5. Primary goal is sell both homes to fund retirement small home or condo.

Disadvantages Of The ROTH IRA: Not All Is What It Seems


----------



## Marine0311 (Feb 5, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> Agreed. It obviously isn't as simple as what I said, but in general terms it will work better for more people. Plus we will gain more tax income now as a country.



we should have a thread for all of us to beniefit from.


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Feb 5, 2019)

I've got all my money tied up in physical property now. I maintain some operating capital in money market accounts, but no where near what I've been putting into land, etc. 

You can make some money in 401k but I've known more people who lost their ass then I do who actually retired. My late father being one of them. 

My brother and I got into flipping houses on the side, we now rent out 3 houses and a duplex. Best "retirement" plan I've been involved with thus far. We have some plans to expand that to a camping/cabin village and possibly more rent house's. Between that, and our businesses, retirement is looking pretty good. 

We talked to an advisor, and real-estate in our area is where the future is, specifically rentals. But it is state and more specifically local specific.


----------



## Brill (Feb 5, 2019)

@Diamondback 2/2 fucking brilliant!


----------



## ThunderHorse (Feb 5, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> Let's talk retirement for a moment. We need to be educating people better with regards to 401k's and Roth accounts. Many people currently are in a lower tax bracket than they will be later in life. If you are at a low tax bracket, a Roth account will be better for you. Conversely, if you are in a higher tax bracket, a 401k account is better. I feel that far too many people are currently better off going Roth but don't because we are short sighted with regards to tax savings.



So for all the young guys in the Service on here.  Save your ducats.  Roth TSP immediately.  Max out your Roth TSP, Then open a Roth IRA and max that out.  Whatever is left is what you live on.

Currently running a Roth TSP, Roth IRA, and Single Register investment account.  Then on the side I've got some stocks I've fucked around with.

No property yet.  Sold my Dad's house because I didn't want to deal with that and needed to make sure my Special Needs Sister had all the money she'd ever need.


----------



## Cookie_ (Feb 5, 2019)

Thread for the discussion of all things related to personal finance and retirement:

IRAs, TSP, Invesments, Assets, etc


----------



## Brill (Feb 5, 2019)

ThunderHorse said:


> Then on the side I've got some stocks I've fucked around with.



Holy shit, THAT should be a thread: when to pull out. Obviously @Devildoc is clueless.

Buy EVERYTHING lindy sells & sell EVERYTHING lindy buys. Follow that advice and you’ll make all the $$$$ I’ve lost.


----------



## Cookie_ (Feb 5, 2019)

Created a thread for all this money talk:

The Finance/Retirement Thread

@Ooh-Rah will be along eventually to move these comments over, I'm sure.


----------



## Brill (Feb 5, 2019)

Please help fund my retirement. Free trips for all SS members.

Used 2017 LEOPARD 48, Hallandale, Fl - 33009 - BoatTrader.com


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Feb 5, 2019)

lindy said:


> Holy shit, THAT should be a thread. Buy EVERYTHING lindy sells & sell EVERYTHING lindy buys. Follow that advice and you’ll make all the $$$$ I’ve lost.



lol I tried to fuck around any penny stocks... Yeah, not so much. But it didn't cost me too much,  figured the cost of learning and I learned that I'm better working with my hands then a computer.


Just a heads up,  small investment stuff,  fucking T-shirt's... You make roughly 3-8 dollars a t shirt doing online sales. You have to have a marketing strategy, but man,  if you hit the right generational group/trend, you can make millions quickly. Some copy right stuff involved and it can be hit or miss,  but really low cost to start up.  Go through a t-shirt direct printing company,  and you basically have no over head,  pretty much cost of design and marketing.

Waiting on my oldest daughter to hit high school, and that will be our little business together. Hopefully grab her generation on a trend and leap frog that into her stated desire of graphic design.


----------



## BloodStripe (Feb 5, 2019)

Boats are great investments. 






















For banks. 

Bust
Out
Another
Thousand


----------



## Salt USMC (Feb 5, 2019)

lindy said:


> Please help fund my retirement. Free trips for all SS members.
> 
> Used 2017 LEOPARD 48, Hallandale, Fl - 33009 - BoatTrader.com


So many things suddenly make sense


----------



## Ooh-Rah (Feb 5, 2019)

Cookie_ said:


> Created a thread for all this money talk:
> 
> The Finance/Retirement Thread
> 
> @Ooh-Rah will be along eventually to move these comments over, I'm sure.


I’m staying off of the forum this week because of business travel, but tagging  me was too much pressure! 
Threads moved.


----------



## digrar (Feb 6, 2019)

Devildoc said:


> We have six kids.



And bad tv reception...


----------



## Brill (Feb 6, 2019)

Salt USMC said:


> So many things suddenly make sense



THIS is why the love button is REQUIRED.


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 6, 2019)

lindy said:


> Holy shit, THAT should be a thread: when to pull out. Obviously @Devildoc is clueless.
> 
> Buy EVERYTHING lindy sells & sell EVERYTHING lindy buys. Follow that advice and you’ll make all the $$$$ I’ve lost.



Hey, I can't help that I have to beat the women off me. She won't leave me alone.  I am all, like, woman, I need my sleep! 12 times a week, that's just too much even for me.


----------



## Devildoc (Feb 6, 2019)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> lol I tried to fuck around any penny stocks... Yeah, not so much. But it didn't cost me too much,  figured the cost of learning and I learned that I'm better working with my hands then a computer.
> 
> 
> Just a heads up,  small investment stuff,  fucking T-shirt's... You make roughly 3-8 dollars a t shirt doing online sales. You have to have a marketing strategy, but man,  if you hit the right generational group/trend, you can make millions quickly. Some copy right stuff involved and it can be hit or miss,  but really low cost to start up.  Go through a t-shirt direct printing company,  and you basically have no over head,  pretty much cost of design and marketing.
> ...



We had a rental property, ended up selling it because of issues with the city. But this is a great area to have property, we just got our revaluation, our value went up 40 grand in 2 years.  Maybe when my kids are out of high school we will do it again.


----------



## SOSTCRNA (Feb 6, 2019)

The wife and I are both retired mil and we have TEP, 401k money.  Right now we are in New Mexico because the pay is great here for CRNAs but we will eventually move back to Florida.  We continue to contribute to a company 401k but we are also saving heavily to pay cash to build our retirement home on our land in the panhandle.  We have on rental property but my parents live in it so not a money maker at this time.  May be interested in acquiring more in the future.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Feb 6, 2019)

Here is what I am doing currently, any advice appreciated:

Age: 33M 29F w/ 1st little friend on the way.  We rent in a HCOL city, looking to move and buy home in burbs.  Looking at public school areas but they are HCOL as well.  IL blows.

My 401k: max from portion of bonus each year.  Company adds 3% of comp on top later in the year. Composition is 85% equities.
Wife 401k: 15% contribution.  Composition is 90% equities.
Rollover IRA:  small trading account with stocks.  It suffers from the @lindy issue as well.

I don't have a Roth because I can't contribute or open due to restrictions on income.  I could take the Rollover IRA, and do a back door Roth conversion, but, I haven't until typing this thought about doing that.  Now I am wondering why I haven't and if it is beneficial or not.  I would appreciate any input and did read the disadvantages article posted earlier.

My thoughts on retirement are that by the time I am looking to retire there is a real possibility SS might not be what it is today or even be around, I don't know.  My time horizon is long, so I have an aggressive mix in our accounts because I can weather large market moves given I am not retiring for min 3 decades.  I need to create value, not protect it so diversification is not my primary focus at this point.  I look for low fee funds and each year just pick one to contribute to.  Every year going forward I just change the fund and try to build a forward allocation.

For us we save and budget aggressively in an attempt to keep lifestyle creep down.  It is inevitable, but, trying to minimize the impact.


----------



## Brill (Feb 6, 2019)

@Isiah6:8 , check out the T. Rowe Price mutual funds.  I like comm & tech fund because I like gadgets and 5G is going to blow our fricken minds.

Note: current phones won’t go 5G because the device needs more antennas and a separate processor just to handle the cell signal.

https://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/mfpathways/pathways.otc?facets=domesticStock,intStock


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Feb 7, 2019)

lindy said:


> @Isiah6:8 , check out the T. Rowe Price mutual funds.  I like comm & tech fund because I like gadgets and 5G is going to blow our fricken minds.
> 
> Note: current phones won’t go 5G because the device needs more antennas and a separate processor just to handle the cell signal.
> 
> https://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/mfpathways/pathways.otc?facets=domesticStock,intStock



Thanks I will check which ones I have access to and this is incredibly helpful.  I was/probably still am behind on retirement planning because I wasn't making as much early on in the grind out phase of the industry.  Now I am trying to find the most effective way to catch up without dumping cash flow I might need for a rainy day into penalized withdrawal funds.  It is a finicky balance.


----------



## Ball N' Chain (Feb 7, 2019)

Here is what I have got going so far.

-2 Years TIS, from FL so I pay no state tax.
-I opted into the Blended Retirement System.
-Currently contributing 5% of base pay into a Roth TSP with 5% matching contributions from the gov. 
-I own my condo in Hawaii and have already garnered a decent amount equity. Thanks VA home loan!
-I consider my Jeep an investment

I plan on keeping this condo and renting it out once I PCS. BAH is crazy high (2800 for E-1 through E-4 and higher for higher rank) when my mortgage/HOA fees is $1900/month should give me a small supplementary income while I am gone. I also plan on utilizing the rest of my VA Home loan to buy property on the mainland. 

That is it for now. I am open to any advice you guys have for a younger guy like myself! My wife and daughter are very important to me, and ensuring we have a secure future is a priority.


----------



## Brill (Feb 7, 2019)

Ball N' Chain said:


> I plan on keeping this condo and renting it out once I PCS.



How many bed, bath, and sqft? How far from Wheeler?


----------



## Ball N' Chain (Feb 7, 2019)

lindy said:


> How many bed, bath, and sqft? How far from Wheeler?



I live in the Mililani Tech Park, about a mile from Wheeler. 2 Bed one bath and 775 sq ft, ground floor👍


----------



## Art Vandelay (Feb 8, 2019)

I currently have 30% of my income going into my TSP. I have my TSP set up as a Roth with it being based off of the S&P 500. I have a separate index fund, also based on the S&P 500 run through Vanguard which I'm contributing to each month as well.


----------



## Art Vandelay (Feb 8, 2019)

Any advice on my current financial planning setup would be greatly appreciated as I am by no means an expert in this field.


----------



## Cookie_ (Feb 12, 2019)

Diamondback 2/2 said:


> lol I tried to fuck around any penny stocks... Yeah, not so much. But it didn't cost me too much,  figured the cost of learning and I learned that I'm better working with my hands then a computer.
> 
> 
> Just a heads up,  small investment stuff,  fucking T-shirt's... You make roughly 3-8 dollars a t shirt doing online sales. You have to have a marketing strategy, but man,  if you hit the right generational group/trend, you can make millions quickly. Some copy right stuff involved and it can be hit or miss,  but really low cost to start up.  Go through a t-shirt direct printing company,  and you basically have no over head,  pretty much cost of design and marketing.
> ...



I actually saw a video that covers creating a merch line. It's more focused on creating a merch line when you already have a YouTube audience, but it would apply to merch in general.


----------



## Diamondback 2/2 (Feb 12, 2019)

Cookie_ said:


> I actually saw a video that covers creating a merch line. It's more focused on creating a merch line when you already have a YouTube audience, but it would apply to merch in general.



Yeah I've read a few different articles on it and did some baseline research.  The big winners tend to be in age groups between 12-16 and 24-30 with regards to trends. Based on my limited research, I actually started looking at it because a couple of buddies have had some luck with veteran style shirts. So I figured being my daughter is into that stuff,  drawing, designing, and all around being a jokester, and being in that age group next year,  makes sense. We have kept her away from the net thus far,  but next year I'm going start letting grow up I guess.  If I can do that,  teach her some basic business skills,  money management and get her to develop an small business owners drive,  it's worth any potential money loss,  within reason of course.


----------



## Brill (Feb 18, 2019)

@Diamondback 2/2 , check out this article about Zillow and flippin’

Zillow Wants to Flip Your House


----------



## Brill (Feb 23, 2019)

Looking good!!!



> The Dow posted its ninth consecutive week of advances, its longest weekly winning streak in nearly 24 years, as investors continued to digest commentary surrounding progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal.
> 
> The Dow (^DJI) closed at 26,031.81 points, having climbed 0.7%, or 181.18 points, by the end of Friday’s session. This was the first time the index crossed 26,000 points since November 9, and its nine straight weeks gains marked the longest streak since a 10-week run between March and May 1995.
> 
> The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.64%, or 17.79 points, with tech stocks leading advances as the index posted its fourth consecutive week of gains. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) rose 0.91%, or 67.84 points, and posted its ninth straight week of advances, tying for the longest weekly winning streak since May 2009.



Dow's 9-week winning streak is the longest in nearly 24 years


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Feb 23, 2019)

All my investments are with a Nigerian Prince.......screw your 401 k,s.....I got like 500 k,s....in diamonds!!!!!!

💤


----------



## Brill (May 24, 2019)

Avg 401K balance by age group!

Average 401(k) balance by age group: See how your retirement savings compare



> According to the news site, the average 401(k) balance is $103,700. But it's worth noting balances vary greatly depending on age.
> 
> Fidelity provided data to CNBC to determine the average amount Americans have in their retirement savings account at each age (as of the first quarter of 2019). Here's what the company discovered.
> 
> ...


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 24, 2019)

lindy said:


> Avg 401K balance by age group!
> 
> Average 401(k) balance by age group: See how your retirement savings compare



Wow...I must be living skinny, because I have double that [30-39] between my Single Register and Roth IRA...guess I might be ok.  I've been trying to figure out my shit so I can contribute a couple more bones to my single Register.


----------



## Brill (May 27, 2019)

Another good article about the value of $1 in each state. Personally, if I were to leave MD for FL or NH, I’d get a $600 monthly pay raise (via no state income tax) JUST leaving in addition to the value cited below.

Here's the value of $1 in each state, according to new data


----------



## Marauder06 (May 27, 2019)

I live in Hawaii.  Cost of living and taxes are crazy here.  Thank God I'm in the military.


----------



## Brill (May 27, 2019)

Marauder06 said:


> I live in Hawaii.  Cost of living and taxes are crazy here.  Thank God I'm in the military.



My annual salary from MD to HI DECREASES $9k according to OPM pay tables but I assume civilians get COLA or something.  I know they’re having a helluva time filling USG billets because it’s so expensive.


----------



## compforce (May 27, 2019)

I'm inviting a friend of mine that is a former Cav Scout and is now a CFA® Program certified professional to join on this thread.  I'll see if I can drag him over.


----------



## Blizzard (May 28, 2019)

lindy said:


> Avg 401K balance by age group!
> 
> Average 401(k) balance by age group: See how your retirement savings compare


Interesting but, if this article rings true, and I imagine it does, it's probably a better gauge for determining "how you're doing":
$1 million may not last you in retirement—here's how to figure out how much you need


			
				CNBC article said:
			
		

> According to retirement-plan provider Fidelity Investments, a good rule of thumb is to have 10 times your final salary in savings if you want to retire by age 67. Fidelity also suggests a timeline to use in order to get to that magic number:
> 
> * By 30: Have the equivalent of your salary saved
> * By 40: Have three times your salary saved
> ...


But ultimately, it comes down to your lifestyle in retirement and how much you spend.


----------



## GOTWA (May 28, 2019)

I better die young 'cause I'm fucked at this point.  I'll need to contract OCONUS to get out of my hole.


----------



## Dienekes (May 30, 2019)

Ball N' Chain said:


> Here is what I have got going so far.
> 
> -2 Years TIS, from FL so I pay no state tax.
> -I opted into the Blended Retirement System.
> ...



You can refinance your HI condo, and that will replenish the VA loan guarantee back to the full amount, and you can do that into eternity so long as you follow the 2yrs worth of living in the property rule.


----------



## Dienekes (May 30, 2019)

I'm very interested in this stuff, and would love to get some sort of designation/credential so that while I'm in, I can better advise my soldiers or even have a small thing on the side because I find this sort of thing enjoyable. The problem is that a lot of those are like apprenticeship or professional licenses that require a good bit of experience before having the designator. I don't want that to be my job, I just want to be able to help myself, family, friends, friends of friends, etc. 

Coming from a small town in LA, people just don't talk about money because it's considered rude, but then we end up with a majority of people who know nothing about finance, investments, risk, and whatnot but don't want to pay a financial advisor to handle their money. They end up with a lot of toys in middle age but end up dependent on SS in retirement. I firmly believe that is a big reason that the middle class is dying, and this topic is something that should be just as mandatory in school as English and Math. Not just some one-off mandatory ECON class or business class that you have to take as general ed but like a straight up at least 4 semesters of personal finance in high school and preferably more in college.


----------



## ThunderHorse (May 30, 2019)

Dienekes said:


> I'm very interested in this stuff, and would love to get some sort of designation/credential so that while I'm in, I can better advise my soldiers or even have a small thing on the side because I find this sort of thing enjoyable. The problem is that a lot of those are like apprenticeship or professional licenses that require a good bit of experience before having the designator. I don't want that to be my job, I just want to be able to help myself, family, friends, friends of friends, etc.
> 
> Coming from a small town in LA, people just don't talk about money because it's considered rude, but then we end up with a majority of people who know nothing about finance, investments, risk, and whatnot but don't want to pay a financial advisor to handle their money. They end up with a lot of toys in middle age but end up dependent on SS in retirement. I firmly believe that is a big reason that the middle class is dying, and this topic is something that should be just as mandatory in school as English and Math. Not just some one-off mandatory ECON class or business class that you have to take as general ed but like a straight up at least 4 semesters of personal finance in high school and preferably more in college.


Most of the companies that hire Financial Planners make you sit for the exam before you're actually hired.  The salary you receive from them is a short term starter as you're supposed to build up your client base unless you get with Goldman or Charles Schwabb which they are big money advisors and the client is theirs rather than yours.  Looked into that when I was getting out.  To be a legit CFP you have to take the Series 6 and Series 7 Exams.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (May 31, 2019)

ThunderHorse said:


> To be a legit CFP you have to take the Series 6 and Series 7 Exams.



Dead on.  You also have to have a shop sponsor you for the Series exams which keeps everyday people from obtaining the designations and more importantly being able to sell or offer up advice.  

@Dienekes  - to obtain most designations, you will have to want a career of it or have continuing education as part of the designation depending on what acronym you want to go for.

That being said, if you want to have a lasting impact in your area there are groups that do financial literacy and have outreach programs.  It might be beneficial to get in touch with that group and have them come in to talk with your guys.  They break the ice quickly, and then meaningful conversation lasts as long as people want.  Usually afterwards there is one on one stuff.  The people speaking on the topics are vetted and that way you don't get yourself in a pickle if anything happens.

@Marauder06 I just got back from the islands, I was floored by how nice everyone was, but man it was expensive.


----------



## Brill (Jun 2, 2019)

Coming retirement eligible US genpop:



> The peak of the baby boom was in 1960. People born then will reach the typical retirement age of 65 in 2025. How many people are we talking about?
> 
> Answering this question is not only important for the Social Security Administration (SSA)—considering the potentially large group of retirees approaching their SSA benefit collection—but is also useful for policymakers interested in evaluating the performance of the labor market.



How Many People Will Be Retiring in the Years to Come? | St. Louis Fed



C’mon 2027!!!!!


----------



## Brill (Jun 2, 2019)

I occasionally poke around this guy’s TSP site for analysis of market trends that affect the various TSP funds.

https://tspsmart.com/Best-TSP-Allocation-in-2019

For federal employees, retirement consists of basic benefit (typically 1.1% of avg high salary X years of eligible service), social security, and TSP. Normally the most significant benefit is ability to retain medical insurance as a retiree but Tri-care offsets that as a tangible benefit (I’m not Tri-care eligible until 59 1/2) but I’m eligible to retire from USG at 57.

My current *plan* is to retire from USG at 57, work for @Florida173 as a contractor, and then FULLY retire at 59 1/2. The *GOAL* is to eliminate debt while maximizing TSP and shoot for complete retirement at 57 to live in a retiree tax friendly state.


----------



## Brill (Jun 20, 2019)

S&P hit record high!!!


----------



## BloodStripe (Jun 23, 2019)

I'm looking at 2050 for retirement (will have 40 years of Government service at that point and be  the ripe age of 67). My goal is to have at least $1m in my TSP account (assuming no major financial downturns my current projected growth puts me somewhere around $1.3m), plus SS, plus FERS. Theoretically that should be around $6,800 monthly before touching my TSP. That difference will be around a 35% reduction in salary, which I feel that my TSP will more than be able to sustain my wife and I through death (who ever is the last to go). This doesn't even include my wife's 401k. Even if I just withdrew the paycheck difference from preretirement, that should last an easy 30 years without any further growth). I could probably retire sooner but as long as I still enjoy working, it will give me something to keep busy. Maybe I'll look at retiring sooner if a defense contractor wants to hire me as a Contracts Manager and pays $250k a year I'll consider it. I'll just throw the extra $110k (this assuming I don't progress above GS 13 Step 10 pay) into a different investment portfolio for a couple of years.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jun 24, 2019)

Here are two pretty good reads, I am looking forward to the third part.  I think intuitively a lot of people in the industry when planning or if they have planners inflation adjust for cost of living 10/20/30+ years out, however, I think a big misconception this nails is the growth rates assumption.  Lot of talk about the double edged sword financial literacy is to the industry right now.

Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part I | RIA

Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part 2 | RIA


----------



## Brill (Jun 24, 2019)

Very possible @BloodStripe !

How Much Income Will My FERS Pension Provide in Retirement? : FedSmith.com


----------



## BloodStripe (Jun 24, 2019)

lindy said:


> Very possible @BloodStripe !
> 
> How Much Income Will My FERS Pension Provide in Retirement? : FedSmith.com


I do wish I fell under that old 0.8% FERS contribution amount. A 3% difference doesn't seem like much until you look at it over 30 plus years of service. 

Grandfathered in employees will have paid something like $9.2k into FERS over 30 years. Us newer hires will pay in around $42k. Big difference for equal benefits.


----------



## Brill (Jun 24, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> I do wish I fell under that old 0.8% FERS contribution amount. A 3% difference doesn't seem like much until you look at it over 30 plus years of service.
> 
> Grandfathered in employees will have paid something like $9.2k into FERS over 30 years. Us newer hires will pay in around $42k. Big difference for equal benefits.



Fed LEOs (@Kraut783) and other agencies (eligible at 50 with certain OCONUS service) have it even better than we do!


----------



## BloodStripe (Jun 24, 2019)

lindy said:


> Fed LEOs (@Kraut783) and other agencies (eligible at 50 with certain OCONUS service) have it even better than we do!



Very true, but there are pros and cons to that job. I get off every holiday, they can't say the same.


----------



## Marine0311 (Jun 25, 2019)

Isiah6:8 said:


> Here are two pretty good reads, I am looking forward to the third part.  I think intuitively a lot of people in the industry when planning or if they have planners inflation adjust for cost of living 10/20/30+ years out, however, I think a big misconception this nails is the growth rates assumption.  Lot of talk about the double edged sword financial literacy is to the industry right now.
> 
> Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part I | RIA
> 
> Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part 2 | RIA



Very eye opening!


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jun 25, 2019)

lindy said:


> Very possible @BloodStripe !
> 
> How Much Income Will My FERS Pension Provide in Retirement? : FedSmith.com



Wow, this is a very good program for those eligible.  Thanks for sharing, that was a good read, I had no idea.


----------



## LibraryLady (Jul 4, 2019)

Talking to a friend and I remembered these words of advice I got from my father when I was pursuing a divorce many years ago. 

After marriage of at least 10 years, the person you are married to is entitled to a portion of your SS and retirement. Doesn't matter how long you've been divorced and/or you remarry.  So when you plan your retirement and you've got a previous 10+ yr marriage in your history, make sure you remember that portion isn't yours.

LL - previously married for 10 years minus 3 days thanks to an attorney with mad skillz...


----------



## MikeDelta (Jul 5, 2019)

Took a beating this past October on the IRA, lost all 2018 gains, but the principal balance didn’t get hit. As we get closer to retirement I’m becoming risk averse, so I put everything into T-Bills. Low risk, low reward (2% max gain) FDIC insured. With that move I have a bit of $$$ allocated to invest after the supposed market correction happens in 2020, hoping for a substantial return on a low buying spree and a timed sell. Second home will be paid off in 3-5 years (that will be our primary retirement home). We are going to sell the home we’re in now and buy a rental property to assist with income generation. That’s about it. 

Any financial wizards out there? Your input is welcome.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jul 5, 2019)

MikeDelta said:


> Took a beating this past October on the IRA, lost all 2018 gains, but the principal balance didn’t get hit. As we get closer to retirement I’m becoming risk averse, so I put everything into T-Bills. Low risk, low reward (2% max gain) FDIC insured. With that move I have a bit of $$$ allocated to invest after the supposed market correction happens in 2020, hoping for a substantial return on a low buying spree and a timed sell. Second home will be paid off in 3-5 years (that will be our primary retirement home). We are going to sell the home we’re in now and buy a rental property to assist with income generation. That’s about it.
> 
> Any financial wizards out there? Your input is welcome.



All of the October through December losses had been re-realized as gains by March.  I would look more at how do I protect my assets downside vs limiting my upside.  If you have a financial adviser, I would talk about hedging options using longer dated options (12-18 months out) in securities that are more illiquid but correlate to downside S&P(almost everything).  It would cost 1% of your portfolio and if the market made that move again your 1% would hedge your downside and give you some upside.  But, if that doesn't happen, you can kiss that 1% goodbye.  Depends on what you are looking for.  *If your financial adviser does not know options or hedging strategies DO NOT GO ANYWHERE NEAR THIS!*  If you are doing this yourself look at changing up your allocation to income generation, just switch the percents up.

I think earning the T-bill is great for your money market funds, I would look at bond allocations to get a little more return than Tbills.  I still think everyone should have some exposure to equities, but as you get closer to retirement it should be about preservation of capital.  So equity exposure could rotate from smaller cap (alpha generation) to Dividend Growth strategies (income generation).  Just something to think about.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jul 5, 2019)

As I'm not close to retirement and have enough liquid assets for a major down payment on a house when we're ready, I'm not really worried about short market corrections when you dollar cost average.  Just keep investing in funds, have smart discussions with your advisor on where to move next.  Now, if you're closer to retirement and the market is high, it's smarter to shift your investment portfolio more towards T-bills and bonds etc.  

For anyone who's 25 and somehow ends up with an inheritance...I'd suggest you throw a lot of that at Amazon and Southwest Air.


----------



## MikeDelta (Jul 5, 2019)

Isiah6:8 said:


> All of the October through December losses had been re-realized as gains by March.  I would look more at how do I protect my assets downside vs limiting my upside.  If you have a financial adviser, I would talk about hedging options using longer dated options (12-18 months out) in securities that are more illiquid but correlate to downside S&P(almost everything).  It would cost 1% of your portfolio and if the market made that move again your 1% would hedge your downside and give you some upside.  But, if that doesn't happen, you can kiss that 1% goodbye.  Depends on what you are looking for.  *If your financial adviser does not know options or hedging strategies DO NOT GO ANYWHERE NEAR THIS!*  If you are doing this yourself look at changing up your allocation to income generation, just switch the percents up.
> 
> I think earning the T-bill is great for your money market funds, I would look at bond allocations to get a little more return than Tbills.  I still think everyone should have some exposure to equities, but as you get closer to retirement it should be about preservation of capital.  So equity exposure could rotate from smaller cap (alpha generation) to Dividend Growth strategies (income generation).  Just something to think about.



Thanks. That is where my head is at. I’m with Merrill Lynch now and I’ll ask my advisor about hedging strategies. We’re all about preservation, but I also don’t want to leave $$$ on the table by being too risk averse.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jul 8, 2019)

MikeDelta said:


> Thanks. That is where my head is at. I’m with Merrill Lynch now and I’ll ask my advisor about hedging strategies. *We’re all about preservation, but I also don’t want to leave $$$ on the table by being too risk averse*.



They might suggest the best hedge for you is to re-allocate your investment strategy, or you might find out that is already in motion.  That is also solid.  Just let them know you are worried about risk and repeat the last line, they will make sure you are set correctly.


----------



## MikeDelta (Jul 8, 2019)

Isiah6:8 said:


> They might suggest the best hedge for you is to re-allocate your investment strategy, or you might find out that is already in motion.  That is also solid.  Just let them know you are worried about risk and repeat the last line, they will make sure you are set correctly.



Thank you for taking some time on this. Appreciate it.


----------



## Marine0311 (Jul 8, 2019)

I am in low cost index funds


----------



## Brill (Jul 8, 2019)

Isiah6:8 said:


> They might suggest the best hedge for you is to re-allocate your investment strategy, or you might find out that is already in motion.  That is also solid.  Just let them know you are worried about risk and repeat the last line, they will make sure you are set correctly.



I’m very interested to see how the current “inverted yield curve” rights itself and what the Fed will do.

Deutsche Bank’s sudden layoffs are...interesting.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jul 8, 2019)

lindy said:


> I’m very interested to see how the current “inverted yield curve” rights itself and what the Fed will do.
> 
> Deutsche Bank’s sudden layoffs are...interesting.



I am with you on that one.  I don't know what the Fed will do, but I have long wondered if these hike/cuts have anything other than a media effect in all reality.  Over simplifying: Does +/- 50bps really get people moving to buy homes or do things they wouldn't, in my opinion, no.  I think the only thing they monitor is given how many variable rate mortgages there are in the market, they monitor the threshold on the upper end which would crush the average American on payments and so we will not see rates hit those late 2000s levels.  Will be interesting for sure.

Agreed.  Their research had split off a bit into Alex Brown and there was lots of conversation that this was a long time coming although appears 18k people didnt know that so I am sure there is some "Yeah we all saw this coming because if we say we didn't someone might think we are stupid" which plagues finance.  The fact they are doing some of these changes almost a decade after their counterparts is very interesting.  I think the notion of telling everyone you were the GS of Europe and being that, are two different things.  I have to imagine their IB is costing them so much money because they don't ever seem to bring anything solid to market which is why they have slipped to top 20 IB shops for deals.   18k people hitting the job market will be tough to pickup people depending on internal bloat, although I think they timed it well given unemployment in Europe hit a cycle low at 7.5 in May which is about what it was in 2007.  Big hits should be NYC and London, here in Chicago they have a big presence but they are more asset management and internal fund real estate sales, not sales or banking.  My guess is BNP will take most of their PB biz away since they want that, who knows though.  Just some random thoughts before I hop on a call here at 3.  I have never really done much business with them so hard for me to gauge any of this.  I think sell side sales and trading is a very tough business to be in, I would not want to be on a desk on that side of things.


----------



## Brill (Jul 13, 2019)

Winds of change are blowing.

Retirement reform bill: Key provisions that will affect you

“At the end of the day, *today’s retirement is on the employee*,” Iammarino said. “I don’t think the bill’s going to have an overall impact on people’s ability to save, but I do think people over the long haul will be happier in retirement with their annuity option.”


----------



## Brill (Jul 13, 2019)

Tax map!

Taxpayer Advocate: You Literally Need A Map To Navigate Our Tax System (So They Made One)

https://taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/Media/Default/Media/2020-JRC/TAS_Roadmap_32x32_FINAL-2.pdf


----------



## Brill (Aug 3, 2019)

Start save no early yunguns!

How much you should save a month to retire with a million dollars


----------



## BloodStripe (Aug 3, 2019)

I'm all for raising the retirement age. That will help the solvency of the SS fund. As it stands right now, by 2030 there will only be enough available for 80% payout rates. Raise it now on the boomers before they all retire.


----------



## Marine0311 (Aug 6, 2019)

My accountant tells me I am in good shape and yet I feel like I should be doing more.


?


----------



## LibraryLady (Aug 6, 2019)

Marine0311 said:


> My accountant tells me I am in good shape and yet I feel like I should be doing more.
> 
> 
> ?


Slacker.

LL


----------



## Devildoc (Aug 6, 2019)

I just started a new job, went from hourly (with optional 401k but a pretty good pension) to salary.  Salary is great: Duke contributes to 401k/403b 8.9% of first $64k, up to 13.2% of total salary, irrespective if the employee contributes anything.


----------



## BloodStripe (Aug 6, 2019)

That's a heck of a 401k plan.


----------



## digrar (Aug 6, 2019)

9% of pre tax pay into nominated superannuation account is our standard retirement plan in Australia. With extra tax free payments being able to be contributed if you desire.
 Our main issue is that people tend to accumulate superannuation funds as they bounce from job to job, which means doubling, tripling etc of fees. Employers like to use the same fund for all of their employees, although you can and should tell them to get bent and use your own fund, or roll all previous funds into the employers new fund.


----------



## Brill (Aug 11, 2019)

Beware when the Gub’ment wants to make things “better”.

Congress is considering big changes to the way you retire. Here's what could make the cut


----------



## Kraut783 (Aug 11, 2019)

got back from some training, one segment was taught by Amtrak Police, spoke to one of the guys about their job, pay and such. Their retirement is 30 years, but they retire at 100%, if married it's 50% on top of that and free medical. I always knew railroad guys had a good retirement, but...get this.....if you are married and divorce, the wife gets her %50 percent, but doesn't touch your pension....no matter how many times you get divorced.


----------



## Brill (Aug 11, 2019)

Kraut783 said:


> got back from some training, one segment was taught by Amtrak Police, spoke to one of the guys about their job, pay and such. Their retirement is *30 years, but they retire at 100%*, if married it's 50% on top of that and free medical. I always knew railroad guys had a good retirement, but...get this.....if you are married and divorce, the wife gets her %50 percent, but doesn't touch your pension....no matter how many times you get divorced.



Holy shit.


----------



## Kraut783 (Aug 11, 2019)

Age/Service: The earliest that Railroad Retirement benefits may begin is either age 60 with 30 years of qualifying railroad service, or age 62.


----------



## Brill (Aug 11, 2019)

Kraut783 said:


> Age/Service: The earliest that Railroad Retirement benefits may begin is either age 60 with 30 years of qualifying railroad service, or age 62.



So they only thing AMTRAK police lose is mando OT pay? Not a bad gig at all.

Edit: not just for AMTRAK LEOs but all AMTRAK employees get Railroad retirement, which includes time served in military during wartime.

https://rrb.gov/sites/default/files/2018-09/2018 RR Handbook_1.pdf

Another tidbit, AMTRAK employees and their families get free train travel.


----------



## Topkick (Nov 17, 2019)

BloodStripe said:


> I'm all for raising the retirement age. That will help the solvency of the SS fund. As it stands right now, by 2030 there will only be enough available for 80% payout rates. Raise it now on the boomers before they all retire.


Why? The baby boomers have paid into SS all of their adult lives. Is it their fault that the government has guided the ship off course? What money is in there, they've put there. If they change the game they should grandfather.


----------



## BloodStripe (Nov 17, 2019)

Topkick said:


> Why? The baby boomers have paid into SS all of their adult lives. Is it their fault that the government has guided the ship off course? What money is in there, they've put there. If they change the game they should grandfather.



Blame the great generation then for living longer. Theres about to be for the first time ever less money coming in versus money coming out. The program was designed for those currently paying in to pay for those currently withdrawing. SS needs to either raise the age or reduce benefits by 25% to maintain solvency.


----------



## Topkick (Nov 17, 2019)

@BloodStripe I believe there are other ways to fix SS. But if you have to change the rules in the middle to end of the game, you gotta at least take care of those who've played long and fair under the old rules. That's just my opinion.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Nov 18, 2019)

I would be very for phasing social security out by age.  I do not think that it would be doable for a lot of reasons but I think the sliding scale of benefits by age would be interesting.  Certain ages would not pay in or receive benefits, while others who have paid into the system will still see 100% of their benefits given their pay into the system.

My opinions are also based on the belief that one day the system will no longer be able to pay out, and  I don't think people will have enough lead time to mitigate that news when it is disseminated.  Because that would be a decades long lead time and my guess is that all the parties look at telling people they might not get benefits is a game of hot potato.  Nobody wants to get stuck with that news when it comes because they will be crucified.


----------



## Brill (Nov 18, 2019)

Maybe the USG needs to reign in the payees? Collecting benefits from a divorced spouse is total bullshit.

Social Security Questions - Social Security Payments

Is Social Security just for retired workers? No. As of June 2016, 16 percent of beneficiaries were disabled workers and their dependents, and *13 percent were survivors (such as widows, widowers and children)*.

At what age can I start collecting Social Security benefits? Workers can begin receiving retirement benefits at age 62, but your benefit will be greater if you wait until your full retirement age (currently 66 for those born after 1942) or later. *Widows, widowers, surviving children, the disabled and children of the disabled can start collecting earlier.* Full retirement ages are based on the year of your birth.

Can I receive Social Security benefits based on the earnings of a former spouse? *Yes, as long as you were married for 10 years and you aren't remarried. If so, you're eligible to claim Social Security benefits under your ex-spouse's earnings if they turn out to be higher than your own.*


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jan 2, 2020)

Do not forget to look at your W-4s.  You can adjust your withholding amounts for 2020 to stay in line with any new changes which there are.  The IRS withholding estimator is a good starting point.

Tax Withholding Estimator | Internal Revenue Service


----------



## Viper1 (Jan 2, 2020)

Any goals for 2020? Mine is to have an individual investment account for the entire year, learn some things (like what is a stop or hold?).


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jan 2, 2020)

@Viper1 -  

*Hold*:  A hold recommendation is a rating that a financial services firm will put on a security.  The normal ratings are Buy, Hold, Sell; although you might see Outperform, Market Perform, Under Perform as well as any other way of saying "I like, I am Neutral, or I don't like this stock".  A hold generally means that the security in question will perform in line with the market or their peers in that space over the next year given available info at this time.  Also note that most financial analysts also work at companies that have investment banks and so their ratings are always a little skewed to the positive because they want the banking business from the companies they cover.  

*Stop*: A stop order is an order where when the price of the security in question moves past a point dictated by the investor, a buy or sell of the security is executed. It helps people get in or out of a name at a price they have picked before hand, and limits the loss or locks in a profit on exit. If the order does not hit the predetermined price, you either do not get into the position, or, you still have a live position as the position has not been closed.

There are a few retired Green Berets here in Chicago who work in the Financial Services Industry, one joined GS in the Private Wealth Group last year and another just moved to NYC, he was with AON for a long time.  If you ever want to talk with them given it is always easier to talk with guys who have been down the same road, I would be happy to connect.

Goals for 2020:

Keep savings ratio above 25%.
Max out 401k
Look to increase home size due to 1st child joining us.  Rent in city or buy in burbs? The debate continues.
Contribute materially again to 529plan for the little one. 
Fun trip this year with the family


----------



## compforce (Jan 2, 2020)

Isiah6:8 said:


> *Stop*: A stop order is an order where when the price of the security in question moves past a point dictated by the investor, a buy or sell of the security is executed. It helps people get in or out of a name at a price they have picked before hand, and limits the loss or locks in a profit on exit. If the order does not hit the predetermined price, you either do not get into the position, or, you still have a live position as the position has not been closed.



On a related note, all of my biggest losing trades came as a direct result of hedging with stop orders before I learned better.  When a stock starts to rapidly drop, the stop order simply means "put in an immediate market buy/sell order to eliminate my position"  The problem is that the very next buy order could be significantly less than the price that you set.  In which case, the trade is executed at that low buy.  When that happens, you personally have dropped the price of the stock below market and everyone moves in to buy at the new low price, driving the stock back up to where it was when your order executed.  Had you manually set a trade price, you would have been much better, even if you have to reset the trade price manually multiple times to sell the position.

Do NOT use stops unless you absolutely have to.  Make your own trades.


----------



## Marine0311 (Jan 2, 2020)

I have a brokerage account and I want to learn to invest wisely. 

Index funds
No fees
Keep it simple


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jan 2, 2020)

I have a sell order on a stock I have...it could be great for my wallet or it could never sell...


----------



## SpongeBob*24 (Jan 2, 2020)

Santa brought me and the Kids a few books to get nerdy on........




2019 was suppose to be the year to become a Millionaire....that didn't work....I came up a few ZERO's short!!!!


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jan 8, 2020)

Marine0311 said:


> Index funds, No fees, Keep it simple



This statement had me really thinking the pas few days and wanted to share a few thoughts:

This methodology and thought process has probably come into view and focus due to the 10 year bull run we are in.  With compounding returns in the double digits for indexes, and their etf counterparts matching double the historical average, it makes sense to squeeze as much return as possible while you can.  When that pattern extends, then people do not see the value in paying to manage money because the market is only going one way.  The crowding into index funds and by proxy those names, and the EOD marking/volume that occurs daily has created a bubble so to speak.  If everyone crowds to the low fee indexes, then the real value in names would be in the names outside the index where there is still meaningful price discovery because they aren't as artificially inflated by flows/crowding/EOD marks/etc.  If the market always goes up why pay for anything extra, it is easy, invest and profit right?

One thing that has been troubling me is if there is a market reversal and then ensuing periods of volatility for a few years after (which a lot of the above has muted), what would be the proper way to navigate that environment.  Is it worth paying fees for that active navigation?  Part of me believes it is probably worth it but that would be broken down by net worth.  

FWIW - right now in my 401k I am 100% ETF.  In my IRA rollover I am 100% individual names.  In a cash account I monetize with double tax exempt munis instead of a high interest savings/checking.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jan 8, 2020)

Playing index funds can be interesting, and we've had a great run.  The likelihood of you losing big isn't too hard because it's a diversified stock.  But in the same way you could be in various funds from companies like Fidelity or Charles Schwabb.

I wish I'd had a few eggs to throw around in my stock portfolio because I could have purchased a 3xWTI ETN and be rich this morning.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jan 8, 2020)

ThunderHorse said:


> Playing index funds can be interesting, and we've had a great run.  The likelihood of you losing big isn't too hard because it's a diversified stock.



The index funds losing big though does carry a higher likelihood even being a diversified stock portfolio due to the reasons listed above.  The other issue is that in a sharp directional move down, the majority of the ownership in those ETFs is discretionary taxable assets which would further exacerbate the losses and valuation correction across the individual which creates a chain of events that are self explanatory to the ETFs.


----------



## Brill (Jan 17, 2020)

@SpongeBob*24 , I found the material here very useful and easy to leapfrog to other research topics.

Moneychimp: Stock Market Investing, Online Calculators, Valuation Models, and more.

The initial links are short but feather reading is linked in upper right:

Small Value Investing

upper right...”why small value”, “which small value”, etc.


----------



## LibraryLady (Mar 6, 2020)

Look into refinancing your mortgages.  Everyone's situation is different, but the mortgage market is downward trending right now.

LL


----------



## macNcheese (Mar 15, 2020)

Marine0311 said:


> I have a brokerage account and I want to learn to invest wisely.
> 
> Index funds
> No fees
> Keep it simple


Check out Sky View Trading on YouTube.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Mar 16, 2020)

macNcheese said:


> Check out Sky View Trading on YouTube.



I would under no circumstances in any lifetime ever tell someone purchase a subscription to any of those groups.  The suggestion you have if meant to learn about different option trading strategies is perfectly fine for learning, but it should be supplemented with better, more in depth resources. 

If you could print money, would you ever tell anyone?  No.  These guys at best are charging a subscription model taking advantage of those hoping to make it big and at worst are doing the Najarian scam of "Here are all my trades that I just executed".  Once the follow along happens the position gets inflated and the liquidity allows them an exit point at a profit, amplified in options trading.

If someone wants to get involved in options trading, I would suggest A LOT of reading, I would suggest A LOT (years) of trading vanilla equities to understand how moves and news in the underlying coupled with the greeks will move things.  I would suggest a solid understanding of the math behind the options. 

*I can't say this enough, do not just jump into option trading.  The stakes are higher, the capital you are up against can move names like you can't believe.  The things done at the institutional level especially in illiquid securities makes it ripe to lose money for an average retail investor.*


----------



## ThunderHorse (Mar 16, 2020)

Hope everyone is scratching all their pennies together because this market looks like it could shed a fuck ton more volume.


----------



## compforce (Mar 16, 2020)

Isiah6:8 said:


> *I can't say this enough, do not just jump into option trading.  The stakes are higher, the capital you are up against can move names like you can't believe.  The things done at the institutional level especially in illiquid securities makes it ripe to lose money for an average retail investor.*



Agreed!  Options are risky, that's why the big trading platforms require you to be approved to trade them.  Right now, 90% of the youtube "how to make a steady income" people are dying a quick financial death.  Especially the ones that were writing puts.


----------



## SaintKP (Mar 16, 2020)

Have a question for those more versed in the stock market, as stock prices plummet right now. Wouldn't now be the best time to buy up or just keep waiting until the knife stops falling? Why hold purchases when you can get a good price on certain shares?

I don't imagine the market would crash out completely, recession sure. But the market will have to take an upswing at some point?


----------



## compforce (Mar 16, 2020)

SaintKP said:


> Have a question for those more versed in the stock market, as stock prices plummet right now. Wouldn't now be the best time to buy up or just keep waiting until the knife stops falling? Why hold purchases when you can get a good price on certain shares?
> 
> I don't imagine the market would crash out completely, recession sure. But the market will have to take an upswing at some point?



Long hold isn't the way to go now unless something bottoms completely out.  For example, Cisco (CSCO) is getting crushed right now due to their dependence on Chinese manufacturing.  Fundamentally they are a very sound company.  If they were to drop to say 20 (they were in the low 30's today) you might think of them as a bargain that you buy and just hold because you know they will go back into the 40's at some point.  BUT you would only do that if you had money that you knew you wouldn't need before 2021.  It's an election year with a pandemic, anything can happen between now and the end of the year.  Basically it would be a pure gamble and too risky to lock that money up when there will likely be upswing opportunities that you could take advantage of when the market turns.

With the current volatility, I really like basic options long calls and long puts as pure leveraged gambles in very short terms (1-3 months).  I also like very short term (less than 3 day) shorts, but you better know what you are doing if you go that route.  That way be dragons.

Just remember that the little guys like us are cannon fodder for the institutional moves.  You have to think 3 steps ahead if you want to do anything other than gamble.  You have to think about what the market is doing, what the machines are going to predict the market will do next, how the small guys will try to follow the institutions and how the institutions will try to pull the rug out from under the small investors.  Once you have that, you place your bet to coincide with however they are going to screw the small guy.  If you can do that, you can win consistently.  If you can't do that, you are just gambling.


----------



## compforce (Mar 16, 2020)

oh, side note, Investopedia is a great resource for learning how options, derivatives, futures and various other types of instruments work and also has paper trading on a delay so you can "try" your idea for free to see how it would have worked out if you had really invested.  It simulates the trade platforms as far as fees and charges as well so you can come out profitable on a trade, but end up in the red from fees just like the real world.

Investopedia


----------



## Viper1 (Mar 16, 2020)

I’m planning on getting things in Cisco, airlines, vehicles, retail. Will hold for a year and see where it goes so I can learn some things.


----------



## compforce (Mar 16, 2020)

Viper1 said:


> I’m planning on getting things in Cisco, airlines, vehicles, retail. Will hold for a year and see where it goes so I can learn some things.



I'd probably go with LEAPs if I were going to do that.  Less risk, similar reward and lots of leverage if the market takes off.

LEAPS® Options Explained | The Options & Futures Guide


----------



## Brill (Mar 16, 2020)

With oil at $28, I‘m looking hard at Exxon and their 9% yield as a long term buy. Sure that will drop as they decrease dividends and sell assets but a ~65-70 stock at half price?


----------



## Brill (Mar 24, 2020)

Negative bonds here in the US. Whew.

U.S. bond yields go negative again as investors seek coronavirus safety



> Investors don’t physically pay the issuer when yields are negative. Instead, the bond’s new issue price trades at a high premium to par, which results in a negative yield. For example, in May, the German government issued a 2-year bond with a 0% coupon and an *issue price of €101.33.* Over the course of the bond’s life it will not distribute any coupons payments *but will payout a final maturity of €100*. Consequently, this bond has a yield of -0.65% at issuance because an investor paid €101.33 to receive €100 two years later.



Should you care about negative bond yields?


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 24, 2020)

Made an easy $450 last night on a small $3,000 investment. Right now is the time to be buying if you can. Once Congress passes this relief package, things are only going to rise.


----------



## LibraryLady (Mar 24, 2020)

LibraryLady said:


> Look into refinancing your mortgages.  Everyone's situation is different, but the mortgage market is downward trending right now.
> 
> LL


We managed to get into that very short, very steep dip.  Just notified to sign the closing docs.  We dropped our interest by 1.375%, gave us a nice little $140/mo bonus.  

LL


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 30, 2020)

I don't recommend this, but if you need the cash:

401k withdrawal penalties waived under coronavirus stimulus package


----------



## Brill (Mar 30, 2020)

BloodStripe said:


> I don't recommend this, but if you need the cash:
> 
> 401k withdrawal penalties waived under coronavirus stimulus package



free opportunity to move some assets from the C fund directly into Amazon!


----------



## BloodStripe (Mar 30, 2020)

lindy said:


> free opportunity to move some assets from the C fund directly into Amazon!



You have 3 years to pay it back or get taxed.


----------



## Brill (Mar 30, 2020)

BloodStripe said:


> You have 3 years to pay it back or get taxed.



Profits “may” cover taxes and then some!


----------



## SaintKP (Jun 21, 2020)

I tried gaining as much information as I could lurking in this thread but had some questions.

Recently had a catastrophic event and at first thought I would have to cash out my 401k to help cover but luckily was able to work things out without touching it. However, this was the wake up call I needed to start thinking about my financial future and the need to start saving/investing.

Right now my only real 'savings' I have is my 401k through work and if I remember currently its they match my contribution and I have it setup to take out $55 each check (but I'm looking at changing it to take out more).  Currently the total balance is 5,200 after about 2-3 years of having it. Should I see if I can move it to a different 'portfolio' (?) to see if I can get greater returns on it or?

Also aside from just stuffing 100 each check into a savings account what else can I look at to start building up my savings as fast as possible? Would it be prudent checking out companies like Robinhood or Vanguard to start investing?

I guess what are some of the best choices I can make right now at 25 to start generating and saving as much as possible to retire at  (hopefully) 60?


----------



## digrar (Jun 21, 2020)

What do they match your contribution up to, something like 10%? If that's the case, how much are you letting your employer off by not maximising your own contribution?


----------



## SaintKP (Jun 21, 2020)

digrar said:


> What do they match your contribution up to, something like 10%? If that's the case, how much are you letting your employer off by not maximising your own contribution?



I believe it's currently 5% matched but waiting on them to get back to me to be sure. Right now I'm basically a 1k above a tax bracket. Would it be prudent to increase my contribution so I can get taxed at a lower bracket?

Right now doing the math I'm contributing around 2.5% so I can definitely increase that.. I feel honestly pretty dumb not looking at all of this stuff sooner and getting a headstart.


----------



## Kaldak (Jun 21, 2020)

Do you typically itemize deductions or take the standard deduction?


----------



## SaintKP (Jun 21, 2020)

Kaldak said:


> Do you typically itemize deductions or take the standard deduction?




I've always just done the standard deduction, I tried doing the itemized deductions in the past, but I didn't have anything that qualified. AFAIK.


----------



## Kaldak (Jun 21, 2020)

You have to remember that 1000 to to a qualified retirement plan doesn't translate exactly to a 1000 reduction in income, from what I remember. I'm going to ask an IRS Agent I know to clarify for you better.

Stand-by a day or two.


----------



## SaintKP (Jun 21, 2020)

Kaldak said:


> You have to remember that 1000 to to a qualified retirement plan doesn't translate exactly to a 1000 reduction in income, from what I remember. I'm going to ask an IRS Agent I know to clarify for you better.
> 
> Stand-by a day or two.




No worries thank you for the help


----------



## digrar (Jun 22, 2020)

I'm Australian and our financial savings system for retirement is quite a bit different to yours, so definitely not the one to ask.
 However, I did have a pre tax deduction for a block of company shares that put me under a tax threshold, which ultimately led to me getting more in my take home pay. That's only happened one year out of 12 of having that share block deduction, but for that year I was hovering over the threshold, it was a nice bonus.
 If you're that close, I'd be bumping up the 401K payment at least $84 a month to get under it. The less tax you pay the better.


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Jun 23, 2020)

A few thoughts for you @SaintKP :

Every dollar you put into your 401k lowers your taxable income by that amount on your tax return up to 19,500 this year.  The company match does not lower your taxable income and will be taxed when you withdraw it.  If it was a Roth then it would be taxed going in, but not taxed coming out.  You could look at doing a back door Roth conversion to allow that money to grow tax free by paying taxes on it this year (it would increase your taxable income by the balance amount at year end taxes if you are unable to get below the threshold).

In order to make it earn more money you need to take more risk, equity etfs can do that (probably close to 100% allocation).  I would tell you that for all that is holy do not make your 401k into a trading account.  Deposit into it, forget about it for a few years, look at it as forced savings and let it grow.  Your time horizon is long, you can withstand short term moves, no matter how big, and just need to contribute.  If you want it to grow, what people don't tell you is that you need to contribute as much as you can each year.  There is no shortcut.  You can change the allocations in your plan to fit your risk appetite.

You should contribute to your 401k, but do not burden yourself by over contributing at 25.  Life is expensive, it will get more expensive.  If you can lower your cost of living then great.  Get in the habit of every year increasing your contribution amount which will help curb lifestyle creep.  When I was 22 I only contributed what the match was.  Year or two later I had a hospital visit that wiped out my savings.  I stopped contributing to my 401k to build up my savings again.  Then when built back I contributed again.  Point being, be fluid with this, don't cripple your immediate cash flow needs if you have them.

My personal .02 which goes against a lot of advice:  Early on you should be not diversified and 100% equities in your 401k.  If you want your 401k to grow realistically it won't be through market returns early on, it will be through contributions.  Your goal is correct to get the balance up, but swinging for the fences doesn't get there, it is just contributing.  Once you get a good balance then you should try to diversify to preserve and grow wealth.  This is a 35 year game for you, the sooner you can get your earnings up to where you can max out the better.  

Feel free to PM me if you want more in depth discussion on any of this.


----------



## Dame (Sep 3, 2020)

Anyone heard anything about the deferral of income taxes being other than an employer's share?
Anything different for federal employees?


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Sep 4, 2020)

Dame said:


> Anyone heard anything about the deferral of income taxes being other than an employer's share?
> Anything different for federal employees?



Memorandum on Deferring Payroll Tax Obligations in Light of the Ongoing COVID-19 Disaster | The White House

It appears if your gross income is ~104k or less, you are eligible for the deferral.  I believe the catch is that Federal employees are unable to opt out of the payroll tax and federal employees will have to pay back taxes starting in January.

My other takeaway is if you are a federal employee making ~104k or less, you will notice a temporary increase in your paycheck after Sept 1 but that added money will have to be paid back.  I believe _in most areas_ GS-13 step 5 and below will see a bump up.  It says in the memorandum that they are working on the elimination of the tax payback obligation, but, I would not expect that to happen.

The .02 - whatever amount of money is an increase, sock it away in a high interest savings account.  I wouldn't touch the increase if I didn't have to since there will be the obligation to pay back in January


----------



## Dame (Sep 4, 2020)

Isiah6:8 said:


> Memorandum on Deferring Payroll Tax Obligations in Light of the Ongoing COVID-19 Disaster | The White House


I read that. The problem is, employees do not have payroll tax. That's the employer's obligation. So I'm thinking even the government has no clue how to implement this.
ETA: The IRS's memo
Deferral of employment tax deposits and payments through December 31, 2020 | Internal Revenue Service


----------



## Isiah6:8 (Sep 4, 2020)

It seems you are correct, Federal News Network has a more encompassing article I can PM if you want @Dame .


----------



## Dame (Sep 4, 2020)

Isiah6:8 said:


> It seems you are correct, Federal News Network has a more encompassing article I can PM if you want @Dame .


Whatever you have I'd love to see/hear. The memos being put out on this are confusing the hell out of the federal employees and I don't want to send out even more misinformation.


----------



## ThunderHorse (Jan 2, 2021)

Alright, after not doing something thinking about this early when I first became aware of Zoom in Grad School last year and not throwing money at it when I first began reading through the China Covid stuff...what are the top 5 stocks for @compforce right now?


----------



## compforce (Jan 3, 2021)

ThunderHorse said:


> Alright, after not doing something thinking about this early when I first became aware of Zoom in Grad School last year and not throwing money at it when I first began reading through the China Covid stuff...what are the top 5 stocks for @compforce right now?


I'm short on everything right now.  I'm playing for the bubble to break.   The market is seriously overvalued and due for a correction.  I do like BP because it's a bargain that should shoot up as the vaccine rolls out and life starts heading to normal, but it already went up quite a bit.  It's probably priced in already at this point.  ATVI (Blizzard entertainment) will continue to rise with the release of Overwatch 2 this year.  

I really don't watch the market as a whole.  I focus on specific stocks and trade them in both directions.  Buy and hold is NOT my game.


----------



## Brill (Jan 3, 2021)

compforce said:


> I'm short on everything right now.  I'm playing for the bubble to break.   The market is seriously overvalued and due for a correction.



^^^^ pure wisdom right there!!!


----------

