# Is the war in Iraq having a negative effect on the larger GWOT?



## Marauder06 (Sep 24, 2006)

An article in today's Washington Post explores the possibility that the war in Iraq is having a negative effect on the larger GWOT.  A couple of excerpts (my emphasis in bold):

_A 30-page National Intelligence Estimate completed in April cites *the "centrality" of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the insurgency that has followed, as the leading inspiration for new Islamic extremist networks and cells that are united by little more than an anti-Western agenda.* Rather than contributing to eventual victory in the global counterterrorism struggle, it concludes that the situation in Iraq has worsened the U.S. position..._

_War as recruiting tool
According to officials familiar with the document, it describes *the situation in Iraq as promoting the spread of radical Islam by providing a focal point, with constant reinforcement of an anti-American message for disaffected Muslims.* The Web sites provide a narrative of a war with frequent victories for the insurgents, and describe an occupation that they say regularly targets Islam and its adherents. They also distribute increasingly frequent and sophisticated messages from al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, urging Muslims wherever they are to take up arms against the "Crusaders" on behalf of Iraq._

I see two points of view here.  One is that we're actually creating more terrorists than we are destoying by the fact that we are in Iraq, and our actions there.  An alternate point of view is that by bringing the fight to the enemy, we make the terrorists fight us in their own back yards, instead of in ours.  

I tend to subscribe to the point of view that both Iraq and Afghanistan are like giant jihadist bug zappers where we can get everyone who wants a piece in one or two places, where we can destroy them without having to fight it out with them in America.  Kind of like a roach motel- they check in, but they don't check out.

My question to the board is, "Does the ongoing situation in Iraq contribute to, or take away from, our ability to successfully wage the GWOT?"  Please explain your answer.


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## Viking (Sep 24, 2006)

I agree with, and find amusing, the "bug zapper" analogy. 


On the flip side, I think that Iraq is hurting the GWOT because of a loss of legitimacy on the foreign policy side, and the loss of focus on other areas of the GWOT which may be important. From a fiscal point of view, where could we have better spent the $ elsewhere, in both defense and other issues? How much HUMINT could we have purchased, how many satellites could we have put up? Of course, I have no idea how much good intel is being gathered at the national level from folks we've captured as a result of Iraq.

I can't really vote for either option


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## Looon (Sep 24, 2006)

I still sorta think that the war over there has helped keep the fuckers from attacking us here.

BUT, at the same time, we need to get hit again, in a big way for the idiots in this country to wake the fuck up.:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:


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## Boondocksaint375 (Sep 24, 2006)

I'm in between as well. I think we should fire up the super war machine!


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## Polar Bear (Sep 24, 2006)

I am with Luna, Americans in general have a very short memory. We are going to have to be bitched slapped again for us to get our head out of our butts.

Have we created more terrorists? I really don't thing so. I have nothing to back this up but I think Iraqi violence is more sectarian than anything. Iraqi is following the same lines as the former Yugoslavia.


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## Marauder06 (Sep 24, 2006)

Viking said:


> I agree with, and find amusing, the "bug zapper" analogy.



The bug zapper analogy was something that popped into my head when I was giving a presentation on my experiences in Iraq.  I'm not sure if it's something I came up with on my own, or if it's something I heard somewhere else and just decided to take credit for ;)


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## LibraryLady (Sep 24, 2006)

Hmm... 

I'm having problems with the choices in the poll.  Yes, there's a long-term benefit to the war, but I'm not sure about the effect on terrorism creation/reduction.  Your second bolded statement highlights the dichotomy.  Disaffected folks are easily led into radical beliefs and there in lies the problem.  It's possible the longer they see this war go on, the more inclined they will be to walk the radical road.  

As others have stated, our general populace is so self-absorbed, it won't get behind the concept of the GWOT unless we get hit again.  And then I'm not sure it will last very long.  

_... urging Muslims wherever they are to take up arms against the "Crusaders" on behalf of Iraq..._

As always they are trying to make this into a religious war.  So now they are calling us Crusaders?  The Crusaders conducted a religious war, yes, but we're not attempting to exterminate their religion, we're bending over backwards (and sometimes more) to keep religion out of the conversation.  Well, I suppose with our modern arms, we do appear to be armored knights...   

LL


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## Chopstick (Sep 24, 2006)

*yep*



Ranger Luna said:


> I still sorta think that the war over there has helped keep the fuckers from attacking us here.
> 
> BUT, at the same time, we need to get hit again, in a big way for the idiots in this country to wake the fuck up.:doh:  :doh: :doh:


I agree with this..and sadly I think we need to set someplace back to the stone age to get their attention.   Ask Japan about that:eek:


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## pardus (Sep 28, 2006)

The Iraq campaign MUST be won, a loss there will enhance the terrs immensley.

The Iraq campaign is a wonderful recruiting tool for the terrs, mainly for fighting in Iraq where we can kick the shit out of them.

Ive always thought the invasion was wrong simply because it was done without the UN's consent and is therefore illegal under international law therefore making us loose all credibility in some circles.
That being said im glad we got rid of Sadaam and it was just a matter of time anyway.

So at the moment Im leaning toward the top option right now, if we do destroy the insurgency in Iraq it'll be of great benefit to us later.

So I cant vote


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## Boondocksaint375 (Sep 28, 2006)

Zarqawi's replacement announced that we have killed 4000 foreign fighters.


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## AWP (Sep 28, 2006)

Boondocksaint375 said:


> Zarqawi's replacement announced that we have killed 4000 foreign fighters.



That's a good start!

From Aug. 2004 to Aug. 2006 fixed-wing CAS alone was credited with about 2,500 dead in Afghanistan. I think that number is inflated but I've seen enough imagery to believe that the above number isn't off by much.


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## pardus (Sep 28, 2006)

NICE!

Though I must add that means nothing, if we kill 40,000 it still means nothing, there is always someone else waiting to enlist, killing alone isnt going to win this war.


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## AWP (Sep 28, 2006)

One that sticks with me is of a JTAC talking to an A-10 while a Pred filmed the TIC. The audio was synced to the video so when the JTAC called out that an RPG launched you could see it in the video.

Rather surreal to watch men fight for their lives like that.


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## pardus (Sep 28, 2006)

wow, that would be very interesting to watch.


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## Frank S. (Sep 30, 2006)

Viking said:


> I agree with, and find amusing, the "bug zapper" analogy.
> 
> 
> On the flip side, I think that Iraq is hurting the GWOT because of a loss of legitimacy on the foreign policy side, and the loss of focus on other areas of the GWOT which may be important. From a fiscal point of view, where could we have better spent the $ elsewhere, in both defense and other issues? How much HUMINT could we have purchased, how many satellites could we have put up? Of course, I have no idea how much good intel is being gathered at the national level from folks we've captured as a result of Iraq.
> ...



Sums up what I think, pretty much. Particularly the policy (political) side both here and abroad. Currently it doesn't look good to me. But in the longer term, I hope efforts against terrorist financial networks will begin to pay off more visibly, but that remains a big question mark.


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## Polar Bear (Sep 30, 2006)

Frank S. said:


> I hope efforts against terrorist financial networks will begin to pay off more visibly, but that remains a big question mark.


 
From what little I know on this it is being done just not to the extent that I personally would like to see.


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## William Hazen (Sep 30, 2006)

Yes. The War is a Strategic Disaster. We have played right into the hands of OBL and his supporters. Our Army and Marines are slowly bleeding to death in the Iraqi Desert while our real enemies bide thier time and prepare. Everyday we are there... is one more fine soldier killed or wounded... one more disabled tank in need of repair... One more of our dollars loaned by the Chinese to spend us into debt...One more day of political polorization here at home...and One more day for our enemies to get ready.

When will fools in power realize that you cannot control the War Genie once you let it out of the bottle.

Who will step foward and lead us to victory?

William Hazen:soap:


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## Boondocksaint375 (Sep 30, 2006)

I think were doing fine.


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## Sigi (Sep 30, 2006)

William Hazen said:


> We have played right into the hands of OBL and his supporters.
> William Hazen:soap:


How so?  Do you really believe that OBL actually thought we'd enter Afghanistan, let alone Iraq?

What makes you believe OBL is pulling any strings right now?


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## MADMIKE175 (Sep 30, 2006)

God help us all if Pelosi and crew gain power.


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## Looon (Sep 30, 2006)

MADMIKE175 said:


> God help us all if Pelosi and crew gain power.


If that happens, OBL will be BBQing on the White House lawn.:doh:


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## William Hazen (Sep 30, 2006)

Sigi said:


> How so?  Do you really believe that OBL actually thought we'd enter Afghanistan, let alone Iraq?
> 
> What makes you believe OBL is pulling any strings right now?



Yes I do. The events he helped set into motion are playing themselves out perfectly. Anyone who has studied Maoist Insurgent tactics understands his Strategic Objectives, and as long as we are dependent on Oil Reserves from the Middle East and the Stability of the Autocratic Dictatorships we support like the Saudi's and the Egyptians we are bound to lose in the end. Why?? Because his idealogy only needs to survive to win while we need to a complete and utter victory just to maintain the status quo. It's funny how certain politicians use the 'we're fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them" here anology. That would be realistic if the terrorists had a navy, strategic weapons, and the ability for force projection. Thier only CHOICE is to fight us there. They could not get to us if we enforced our immigration laws... made Homeland Security a Real Agency instead of a Pork Barrel Trough... and protected our own borders (like the Saudies have done) Two Little Things called the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans have prevented foreign enemies from "fighting us here" that since 1812. But hey the Middle East is where the Oil is and as long as the American Consumer is dependant upon it while not willing to sacrifice in order to fight a War (Again OBL'S proof America has no will... TAX CUTS) we're only fucking ourselves and OBL knows this. We will run out of money and resources long before he runs out of bodies. This is the same mistake we made in Vietnam. The kill ratio was 10 to 1 in favor of us. We dominated the battlefield. Giap stated it didn't matter if it was a 100 to 1. He knew survival was the key and that America had no clear Political or Military Plan for Victory other than "Staying the Course" or Escalating the War into WWIII (hence the talk about Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, India, China, then Russia & Britain. That Pesky War Genie again LOL) Call it the TAR BABY Effect. Once you get your hands in it It is awful hard to get it off of you. I think it's cute since it's about Oil. LOL

Call it the Asymetric Paradox. The more we fight and kill insurgents the stronger his idealogy gets and the harder it becomes to achieve victory by military means alone.

I respectfully submit to you Sigi if we back off just over the border to Kuwait... Let the Iraqi's( Key here... Sunni's and Shia's We will always have a political/military presence in Iraq through the greatful KURDS) fight it out and focused on rebuilding Afganistan and Iraq after the Shia/Sunnis sort it out... They would not "follow us here" and oil prices might plummit to the floor.

William Hazen


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## William Hazen (Sep 30, 2006)

Also Sigi,

There are many other important factors I did not talk about which are relevant to the discussion. I hope we will be  to dialog those in upcoming posts.:)

William Hazen

PS. How was the Wedding you went to in Malibu? I'll bet I know them :)


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## Sigi (Sep 30, 2006)

It is hard to take you seriously sometimes, Bill.  None of what you said is based on facts - it is based on a myopic view of the circumstances.  I am at least openminded enough to listen to other points of view and not follow lock, stock and barrel to what those in power say.

Understand I am not belittling you for your point of view.  It just seems so.....out there.


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## Polar Bear (Sep 30, 2006)

He is ours and we love him. There is very few points that I agree with William on, but it does make me think and helps me be a better Devils advocate.


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## Boondocksaint375 (Sep 30, 2006)

Sigi said:


> It is hard to take you seriously sometimes, Bill.


 
lmao, im used to seeing those words!;)


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## William Hazen (Sep 30, 2006)

Sigi said:


> It is hard to take you seriously sometimes, Bill.  None of what you said is based on facts - it is based on a myopic view of the circumstances.  I am at least openminded enough to listen to other points of view and not follow lock, stock and barrel to what those in power say.
> 
> Understand I am not belittling you for your point of view.  It just seems so.....out there.



Gee I guess all thats left for you to do is rebut my "Myopic" Arguments with an Arguement of your own... We can either debate or you can comfort yourself with the myth that it is always better to attack ( I use this word in context) someone's point of view than to explain your own. Again out of respect for the other posters including you... I have chosen to explain mine.

It's also good to know like me you're not following the status quo. I would hope the you will elucidate your independent thought in future posts. You or I have no fear of some jerk censoring your post/thread because they do not subscribe to your point of view.

With all due respect SIGI... You have my respect and my attention without rancour. I hope you will find it helpful of me to suggest you check any "baggage" at the door before you enter.

William Hazen


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## Boondocksaint375 (Sep 30, 2006)

Take it to PM you two.


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## Sigi (Sep 30, 2006)

William Hazen said:


> Gee I guess all thats left for you to do is rebut my "Myopic" Arguments with an Arguement of your own... We can either debate or you can comfort yourself with the myth that it is always better to attack ( I use this word in context) someone's point of view than to explain your own. Again out of respect for the other posters including you... I have chosen to explain mine.
> 
> It's also good to know like me you're not following the status quo. I would hope the you will elucidate your independent thought in future posts. You or I have no fear of some jerk censoring your post/thread because they do not subscribe to your point of view.
> 
> ...


Bill, now you know I respect you.  Yeah, there was a time when I got out of line, but I learned from that and I learn from you.  You're very intelligent and always have a point of view.  Do I always agree with you? No.  But I was and never will be in favor of an echo chamber, and I know you do not either.

He is a for instance on your post:  You said we should pull back to Kuwait.  You also said we have shown we do not have the stones to fight (tax cuts??).  Pulling back to Kuwait does not show the stones you are referring to,

For one, OBL does not want us in the ME and has stated his actions were to remove us - pulling back to Kuwait accomplishes nothing.   Two, leaving Iraq now and "letting the two sects fight it out" is oversimplifying the situation - the same as the Neo-Cons you accuse of doing in 2003.  And what about Syria and Iran?  Do you think because we have a stable Afghanistan that Iraq is no longer strategic?  I would argue that now that we are in Iraq it is as strategic as the Stan.

IMHO.


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## Sigi (Sep 30, 2006)

William Hazen said:


> Also Sigi,
> 
> There are many other important factors I did not talk about which are relevant to the discussion. I hope we will be  to dialog those in upcoming posts.:)
> 
> ...


It was my cousin.  He got married on the beach, but no party afterward.  Very lame.

Saw some nice houses on the cliff, though.  My Mother saw one that looked like 3 Walmarts stacked on top of each other - she thought "wow, that has to be $15 million."  Ma, try $100 million.  

First time on the left coast - I envy you.


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## William Hazen (Sep 30, 2006)

Sigi said:


> It was my cousin.  He got married on the beach, but no party afterward.  Very lame.
> 
> Saw some nice houses on the cliff, though.  My Mother saw one that looked like 3 Walmarts stacked on top of each other - she thought "wow, that has to be $15 million."  Ma, try $100 million.
> 
> First time on the left coast - I envy you.



Sounds like Point Dume. Thats where I live. :) Not on the Cliff though. :) I've had a few folks from the other place over to surf or hang out. Your mom is closer in price. Sounds like she is talking about Anawalt House. Which is about 15 to 20 Million. Along that same cliff live Babara WAWA, A Hilton or two, Bob Dylan, Anthony Hopkins and a host of other "faces". I think I am the only small fry left. LOL

William Hazen


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## William Hazen (Oct 1, 2006)

Here you go Sigi. I am not the only one with an opinion regarding the Army's degrading combat readiness.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/opinion/01sun1.html

William Hazen


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## pardus (Oct 1, 2006)

William Hazen said:


> Here you go Sigi. I am not the only one with an opinion regarding the Army's degrading combat readiness.
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/opinion/01sun1.html
> 
> William Hazen



Bill, that piece while having some value in promoting grassroots counter insurgency infantry etc... training, is way off mark in saying projects such as the F-22 are misguided, there IS going to be confrontations with, China etc... in the future, the Major asset the USA has is a technological advantage, Bill, you know that, if we slip up on that aspect the USA will fall, rather quickly.
That being said, the USA Militray needs to refocuse in a more commonwealth type military with the emphisis on basic soldier skills, grunts etc... who can take on mohammed one on one and take him out without support, then with the support, that grunt is a fucking machine!


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## William Hazen (Oct 1, 2006)

Richard Clarkes take seems pretty close to mine in some key respects. :)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/opinion/01clarke.html

William Hazen


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## AWP (Oct 1, 2006)

Iraq is having a huge impact on OEF. Logistics, manpower, how higher commands view OEF, etc. Try calling the CAOC in Qatar about OEF, they will get with you after 2PM their time. Why? They work Iraq issues first, OEF and the HOA are cleanup efforts. Logostics: Not enough helos and cargo assets to move men and material and the material takes a back seat to Iraq when ordering parts. 

The plus side is without Iraq I'm sure that OEF would have more bad guys in it. I don't think the numbers would be like Iraq though. AND it would be a littler easier to deal with them if they were in one place instead of two.

I had a few captains (army and AF) tell me that an OEF tours wasn't as good as an OIF tour for promotion's sake, but I have no way of verifying that, just their stories and comments.


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