# Save the Ukraine



## DA SWO (Mar 1, 2014)

You ate too many mushroom with pizza, and now think you are SecDef.

What's your advice to the President regarding the Ukraine?

I'll go first.

82nd launches the DRB (via an EDRE) and conducts joint Airborne Ops with the Polish Army along the Polish/Ukraine Border.

You also try to get as many NATO countries to join the exercise and give the Poles some comfort that NATO is (no shit), with them on this.

Fire away.


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## AWP (Mar 1, 2014)

At this point I'd think we're talking about a show of force in the media and less about actual capabilities.

I'd add a small surface action group (SAG) in the Black Sea. I'd mention that we haven't ruled out sending an SSN to the area...even though I wouldn't send a sub.

I'd surge some AF assets to the region. Even a small component can generate press. Add an AWACS or two, some -22's, maybe a couple of tankers.

You're at least doing something, the cost and manpower impact is minimal, and you're setting the stage for larger forces as needed. You can always cloak them under the "assuring the safety of US citizens" mantra. Little things without too much escalation.

It is an absolute shame that we haven't learned a thing about IO operations in the last decade because this would a perfect opportunity for them to play a large role.


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 2, 2014)

Request CIA clandestine service shifts focus to the Ukraine.

FAST Company ROTA to the US Embassy in Kiev. 82nd DRB flies to Germany.  75th RRF to Poland, 1st Battalion 10th SFG quietly into the Ukraine, 1 Squadron Delta also quietly into the Ukraine.

HBCT from 3rd ID to Germany…it will take awhile.

Mediterranean Destroyer Squadron to Istanbul and prep to go into the Black Sea.  The last part may get us into a shooting war fast though.  All of this would need to be done in concert with NATO allies throwing down some manpower.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 2, 2014)

And I thought the Fulda Gap scenario was gone forever....where are the Pershings when you need them.  And hey, those A-10's they want to can may come in handy....

Freefalling....I would venture to guess some SSN's are already lurking pretty close by.


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## RackMaster (Mar 2, 2014)

Bet the fuck thay decided we pulled out of Germany is second guessing things now.  We should have never pulled out 4 Bde.

A full on cooperative Ex among NATO's finest.  Bring out the old tactics books and run a full assault East.  Then set up camp for "tea time".


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## DA SWO (Mar 2, 2014)

RackMaster said:


> Bet the fuck thay decided we pulled out of Germany is second guessing things now.  We should have never pulled out 4 Bde.
> 
> A full on cooperative Ex among NATO's finest.  Bring out the old tactics books and run a full assault East.  Then set up camp for "tea time".


As long as camp is in Poland.


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## 0699 (Mar 3, 2014)

Unless it goes nuclear, stay the hell out of it.  Nothing in either of those countries worth an American life.


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## DA SWO (Mar 3, 2014)

0699 said:


> Unless it goes nuclear, stay the hell out of it.  Nothing in either of those countries worth an American life.


Are you talking about Poland? or Ukraine/Russia.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 3, 2014)

Any escalation and or show of force will be met with escalation and further show of force by Russia.  They are not going to back down, that's just not how they roll. Since 2008 Russia has been poking us in the eye, both politically and militarily and they are not going to stop.

Bottom line, Putin is a better statesman and is outclassing our retard of an excuse for a POTUS, and lets not even get into SECDEF.

We are going to look stupid and weak from this, again. The best the we can do going forward from here is get our stupid POTUS to shut is stupid mouth and stay out of shit out of our control unless we are actually going to do something.

I honestly think Obama missed that gym locker-room fight where you learn to nut up or shut up.

My $.02


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## 0699 (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> Are you talking about Poland? or Ukraine/Russia.


 
All of them.  I have one question about any overseas conflict.  Is it worth my son's life?  If the answer is no, then I don't believe we should be there.

30 billion screaming NKs coming into Myrtle Beach is a different story of course.


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## DA SWO (Mar 3, 2014)

0699 said:


> All of them.  I have one question about any overseas conflict.  Is it worth my son's life?  If the answer is no, then I don't believe we should be there.
> 
> 30 billion screaming NKs coming into Myrtle Beach is a different story of course.


Poland is a NATO Member, we are obligated under Art 5 (IIRC) to assist in their defense.


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## pardus (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> Poland is a NATO Member, we are obligated under Art 5 (IIRC) to assist in their defense.



That didn't turn out too well last time...


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## Brill (Mar 3, 2014)

Wait until 0300 and call Hillary.  Oh wait, this is supposed to be hypothetical vice factual. Damn.


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## Centermass (Mar 3, 2014)

lindy said:


> Wait until 0300 and call Hillary.  Oh wait, this is supposed to be hypothetical vice factual. Damn.



Susan Rice is convinced that one of the Figure Skating venues at the Winter Olympics is directly responsible for the unrest in the Ukraine


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## Blizzard (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> You ate too many mushroom with pizza, and now think you are SecDef.
> 
> What's your advice to the President regarding the Ukraine?
> 
> ...


Overall, I don't view Crimea an issue that we should be overly involved in.   That said, we did give Ukraine security assurances around their sovereignty back in the mid-90's.  So, it is what it is and here we are....

First thing, I'd start by telling him to give give Polish President Komorowski a call and tell him, "About the missile defense stuff...I was wrong.  When is a good time for us to come over and install that for you?"  Make this a broad announcement and make sure it's clear that the decision was reversed in light of Putin's lack of trustworthiness.   See how that plays.

We've pulled out of G8 talks, so that's good too.

Lastly, I'd tell him and the rest of the administration to keep their collective yaps shut on the big boy talk until they really have a plan.


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## Worldweaver (Mar 3, 2014)

Centermass said:


> Susan Rice is convinced that one of the Figure Skating venues at the Winter Olympics is directly responsible for the unrest in the Ukraine



I blame Oshie


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## DA SWO (Mar 3, 2014)

pardus said:


> That didn't turn out too well last time...


Kind of late in the game to have second thoughts about that "common defense clause" isn't it.

Art 5 has been invoked once (twice?), and I find it ironic that American's would suddenly blanche at another NATO Nation invoking Art 5.


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## RetPara (Mar 3, 2014)

This is all over the Crimea...That's a British problem.  Let them send in a Light Brigade....


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## 0699 (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> Poland is a NATO Member, we are obligated under Art 5 (IIRC) to assist in their defense.


Then I resign and move to another country.


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## pardus (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> Kind of late in the game to have second thoughts about that "common defense clause" isn't it.
> 
> Art 5 has been invoked once (twice?), and I find it ironic that American's would suddenly blanche at another NATO Nation invoking Art 5.



No second thoughts here, I just think people should be aware of the potential consequences i.e. the USA suffered 416,000 + deaths in WWII.

Does anyone here think the US will go to Tawain's aid if China invades?

Some things are worth fighting and dying for. The Crimea? Not one of those things, to anyone (not even the Ukraine IMO), except Russia.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 3, 2014)

Fuck it, if we're going to have WW3 why not over Ukraine. 

I honestly don't see the strategic benefit for even being tied into NATO with of all places Russia's next-door neighbor Ukraine. If Russia had the same agreements with say Mexico or Canada, we would have an issue with it....say like how we did in the 60's and Cuba?

I really can't believe we (the world) are so stupid we are going to start the cold war all over again.


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## DA SWO (Mar 3, 2014)

pardus said:


> No second thoughts here, I just think people should be aware of the potential consequences i.e. the USA suffered 416,000 + deaths in WWII.
> 
> Does anyone here think the US will go to Tawain's aid if China invades?
> 
> Some things are worth fighting and dying for. The Crimea? Not one of those things, to anyone (not even the Ukraine IMO), except Russia.


No on tawain.
No on the Ukraine (but at least admidt we fucked them in the ass).
Yes on Poland.
FWIW- The US invoked Art 5 after Sept 11, 2001.  NATO AWACS assisted manning CAPs over the CONUS, and we were released from some other NATO Committments.
Turkey may have invoked Art 5 after their RF-4 was shot down (getting some money and a Patriot battery from us).

The point being, if Putin is trying to rebuild the USSR, eventually he runs out of 3rd rate opponents; what happens when he goes after the 2nd tier (former USSR allies), like Poland, or the Baltic States? 

There is not much we can do, but kicking him out of the G-8 (though symbolic) would hurt him domestically.
The EU needs to cut back on LNG purchases (ironically, the Ukraine can cut the pipelines as a last ditch measure, punishing Russia and the EU).


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## Red-Dot (Mar 3, 2014)

I guess Patton was on to something after WWII....sure would have made the current geopolitical conditions much different.


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## Kraut783 (Mar 3, 2014)

Hell, he said it during WWII....and was right


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## ThunderHorse (Mar 3, 2014)

To say the POTUS is getting outclassed is being blind to the reality that our hand freakin' sucks unless we want to shoot bullets.


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## Worldweaver (Mar 3, 2014)

ThunderHorse said:


> To say the POTUS is getting outclassed is being blind to the reality that our hand freakin' sucks unless we want to shoot bullets.



He was outclassed to begin with, as soon as the Vladster looked him in the eye.  The President has no business standing next to a man like Putin, and I'm not saying this to be disparaging to the POTUS, because Putin has been sizing up and manipulating people his entire life.  Putin is a Cold War era KGB agent who knows what buttons he can and cannot push, and the extent to which he can manipulate certain people.  The President has been measured on several occasions and, in my opinion, Putin has decided that he could move against this current administration without serious threat of consequence.  The situation with Syria and the administrations handling of Afghanistan, amongst other things, have emboldened Russia, however, I don't necessarily think that Putin chooses to move on Crimea with a different Commander in Chief in office.


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## Chopstick (Mar 3, 2014)

Worldweaver said:


> He was outclassed to begin with, as soon as the Vladster looked him in the eye.  The President has no business standing next to a man like Putin, and I'm not saying this to be disparaging to the POTUS, because Putin has been sizing up and manipulating people his entire life.  Putin is a Cold War era KGB agent who knows what buttons he can and cannot push, and the extent to which he can manipulate certain people.  The President has been measured on several occasions and, in my opinion, Putin has decided that he could move against this current administration without serious threat of consequence.  The situation with Syria and the administrations handling of Afghanistan, amongst other things, have emboldened Russia, however, I don't necessarily think that Putin chooses to move on Crimea with a different Commander in Chief in office.


So would you say that Putin has looked into Obama's soul?


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## Worldweaver (Mar 3, 2014)

Chopstick said:


> So would you say that Putin has looked into Obama's soul?



Yeah, we see how that worked out for President Bush.  :-"


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## pardus (Mar 3, 2014)

SOWT said:


> No on tawain.
> No on the Ukraine (*but at least admidt we fucked them in the ass*).
> Yes on Poland.
> FWIW- The US invoked Art 5 after Sept 11, 2001.  NATO AWACS assisted manning CAPs over the CONUS, and we were released from some other NATO Committments.
> ...



Oh yes, agree 100% on the bold quote. It would be really bad if we let Poland get fucked, it would be a shit show if we tried to physically step in though. As a nation and a military we are exhausted at the moment. Putin is like a wolf who can sense we are on the ropes, he is circling us now... 
Lets hope the Chinese don't think this is a good time to start forcing some major issues too. We'd be fucked.


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## RackMaster (Mar 3, 2014)

Throw in the fact that the West couldn't amass a force needed, the fuck sticks we have to choose from would probably lean towards Lenin, er I mean Putin's ideals.  Free ice cream for everyone!   Just dig this hole first....


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## RetPara (Mar 4, 2014)

This is fait acompli. No one aint't going to do nothing over the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.  

The Crimea was actually part of Georgia till Uncle Joe gave it to Ukraine in '46 (?).  The Eastern part of Ukraine is primarily ethnic Russian; probably from forced resettlement's of peasant's from Uncle Joe's time.  

Vladimir Vladimirovich is taking a lesson from history and running with it.  By that I mean one of the King Charles of France by taking nibbles away from bordering countries and such.  Other crowns raised a stink; but did nothing.  His Most Excellent Georgia adventure was the precursor for this.  

Also consider that the Russian naval base at Sevastopol is Russia's only warm water port...  even if it is bottle-necked leading out of the Black Sea.  That port  has to be protected.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 4, 2014)

You know I'll play devils advocate here.... I don't blame Putin one bit. He sees a VERY WEAK President in office, his cabinet (insert Kerry) and security advisors are a laughable group of keystone cops. He knows the American public in general won't stomach another "boots on the ground" war and he knows the American scare of communism is gone.  It's a perfect storm scenario for him. 

Would I like to go in and kick Putin's ass? Hell yes....   But the current POTUS can't and won't.


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## Centermass (Mar 4, 2014)

"Or else, we will be very, very, angry with you"

"And we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are......."


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## Chopstick (Mar 4, 2014)

Worldweaver said:


> Yeah, we see how that worked out for President Bush.  :-"


About as good as flexibility after someone's "last election"? :-"


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## DA SWO (Mar 4, 2014)

ThunderHorse said:


> To say the POTUS is getting outclassed is being blind to the reality that our hand freakin' sucks unless we want to shoot bullets.


No.

Kill the G-8 summit in Russia this summer.
Give Putin the boot and let it go back to being the G-7 Summit for awhile.
Ukraine can pimp the EU by charging extra transfer fees on the Nat Gas Pipelines, that might get Germany's attention.

Putin's loses face, and that is VERY IMPORTENT to him.


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## pardus (Mar 4, 2014)

RetPara said:


> The Crimea was actually part of Georgia till Uncle Joe gave it to Ukraine in '46 (?).  The Eastern part of Ukraine is primarily ethnic Russian; probably from forced resettlement's of peasant's from Uncle Joe's time.



It was part of Russia until Khrushchev gifted it to Ukraine in '54.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 4, 2014)

ThunderHorse said:


> To say the POTUS is getting outclassed is being blind to the reality that our hand freakin' sucks unless we want to shoot bullets.



Obama has divided our country.

Putin has united his.

Obama has made us look weak and incapable to the world. Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Egypt, Syria, etc, etc.

Putin has been very strong on many of the issues, stepping over every line in the sand Obama has called out.

Right now you have China and Russia, conducting global power grabs, strengthening their military presence, their economic alliances and really starting to re-shape the world, in their favor. It may not look like in the immediate, but the next 10-20 years are going to be very different than the last 20 years.

Obama is a idealist who think he understands the worlds current heart beat. The reality is he doesn't even understand his own country. That was evident in his world apology tour.

He is very much outclassed, he was outclassed before he ever got into office and he will be outclassed by leaders like Putin until he leaves office. The sad part about it, is that its his own mouthpiece that is causing him to be outclassed. He doesn't understand that he needs a united country behind him to get things done or to tell people like Putin, we (as in my country who I speak for) will not put up with your shit anymore, cut it out before we decide to fuck you up a bit. Instead he runs his mouth to this nation by saying if your house of reps won't do what I think is best for you, I'll just do it anyway with a stroke of my pen or a text from my phone. You can't look strong to the world, if you don't even look strong in your own country.

Obama is a joke, and the only thing IMHO that is worse than him fucking setting us up for epic fail over the next few decades, is that our people some how elected this fool twice.

To finish my little rant off, I will add that this jerkoff is running his suck to the world, pissing people off, meanwhile he is gutting our Military and crushing people financially with things like Obamacare and hyperinflation. People need to wake up and smell the pile of shit this retard is leaving our children with.


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## 0699 (Mar 4, 2014)

SOWT said:


> FWIW- The US invoked Art 5 after Sept 11, 2001.  NATO AWACS assisted manning CAPs over the CONUS, and we were released from some other NATO Committments.


 
I would argue that there is a big difference between "Hey, can you loan us a few AWACS for airspace control in a place where we have airspace dominance and your people in the aircraft will be under no threat what so ever?" and "American boots on the ground defending a shitty government all because our own government can't figure out what the fuck they want to do".


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## Red-Dot (Mar 4, 2014)

Yep....that "HOPE" campaign is really helping us out now.


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## DA SWO (Mar 4, 2014)

0699 said:


> I would argue that there is a big difference between "Hey, can you loan us a few AWACS for airspace control in a place where we have airspace dominance and your people in the aircraft will be under no threat what so ever?" and "American boots on the ground defending a shitty government all because our own government can't figure out what the fuck they want to do".



I am not saying put troops into the Ukraine, but bolstering Poland as part of a NATO agreement (to me) is a given, otherwise disband NATO as the Russians use our unwillingness to honor treaty committments against us.


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## AWP (Mar 4, 2014)

I'm no fan of Poland's military, but we have to honor our treaties or dissolve them.

Putin's no dummy. He'll push this to see how far he can go. The world will watch to see how we respond and how NATO responds. Even if the Russians straight up invaded with Putin taking a dump in downtown Kiev, no one will go to war for the Ukraine. We have options, but those are limited. What is sad is that I dont' see us exercising them or even acting like we'll exercise them and THAT'S where we are really losing. We aren't even trying.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 4, 2014)

If we want to survive the next century we will have to dissolve NATO and probably enter into some form of an alliance with China and Russia, probably India as well. More so we will have to watch the USD fall and jump into a new currency that will inevitably turn into a world currency.

Again, people need to wake up to shit sandwich we are about to take a bite out of, but more so the next two generations will be eating in full. We need to change our tune with both Russia and China and establish a three way pact that allows us the united states to remain a super power in the 21st century. Otherwise we all better get used to the idea of going to war to suppress China and Russia in power growth and maintain our failing alliances.

I know that sounds pretty shitty but that is the world we are currently living in.Who wants to bet the next spark of WW3 will be between China and Japan?


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## DA SWO (Mar 4, 2014)

JAB said:


> If we want to survive the next century we will have to dissolve NATO and probably enter into some form of an alliance with China and Russia, probably India as well. More so we will have to watch the USD fall and jump into a new currency that will inevitably turn into a world currency.
> 
> Again, people need to wake up to shit sandwich we are about to take a bite out of, but more so the next two generations will be eating in full. We need to change our tune with both Russia and China and establish a three way pact that allows us the united states to remain a super power in the 21st century. Otherwise we all better get used to the idea of going to war to suppress China and Russia in power growth and maintain our failing alliances.
> 
> I know that sounds pretty shitty but that is the world we are currently living in.Who wants to bet the next spark of WW3 will be between China and Japan?


So you are embrasing Communism?


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 4, 2014)

No. 

I'm stating that China and Russia are on the verge of exploding in the super power arena and we are cutting our military to pre-american super power levels. I'm stating that the USD is hyperinflated and is likely to devalue and collapse as the world currency by 2020. I'm stating that the whole world has been acting a fool, civil unrest, civil wars, border disputes and highly tense economic deals that are leading nations to build Armies while we are disassembling ours.

I'm just saying we should all wake up and take a hard look at the future and how our children will have to live in it. Do we send our.kids off to war to fight communist in order to slow their rate of growth/maintain our crazy failing system. Or do we stop acting like snobs and focus on ensuring a safe and prosperous future for our kids kids?

I don't really give two shits if China or Russia want to be communist. I don't care if the whole planet wants to be communist, as long as America gets to be America and my kids don't have to live through a fucking nuclear fall out.

Honestly China is really the only true Communist country right now (I put NK under China being the child leader is doing whatever he wants and is simply a puppet on a Chinese string). Russia is a democracy now, albeit a fucked up one. I don't think China will stay communist forever, the more their people become globalized, the more they will move to democracy.

But no I am not for communism here in the USA.


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## Blizzard (Mar 4, 2014)

Freefalling said:


> Putin's no dummy. He'll push this to see how far he can go. The world will watch to see how we respond and how NATO responds. Even if the Russians straight up invaded with Putin taking a dump in downtown Kiev, no one will go to war for the Ukraine. We have options, but those are limited. What is sad is that I dont' see us exercising them or even acting like we'll exercise them and THAT'S where we are really losing. We aren't even trying.


To add to that, Putin is still calling the shots here. I'm sure there will be an attempt to claim some sort of diplomacy win in the current pause today with Putin saying he sees no reason to invade Ukraine right now.  However, even if there is some amount of truth to it, Putin is clearly the one driving.  You can almost see around the corner here as he probes our responses.  We (and by that, I really mean the entre West) are merely reacting...and slowly at that.  It's a bit frustrating from that perspective.

But I'll try not to be too critical of our administration.  I know that being a community organizer was tough but this is really hard.



JAB said:


> No.
> 
> I'm stating that China and Russia are on the verge of exploding in the super power arena and we are cutting our military to pre-american super power levels. I'm stating that the USD is hyperinflated and is likely to devalue and collapse as the world currency by 2020. I'm stating that the whole world has been acting a fool, civil unrest, civil wars, border disputes and highly tense economic deals that are leading nations to build Armies while we are disassembling ours.
> 
> ...


I actually see China and Russia as opportunists.

The world does not view the U.S. on the idealistic pedestal that it perhaps once did.  In many ways we've become the big guy that everyone loves to hate; sure we have loyal fans but to many others we're also despised.   We're the New York Yankees and Dallas Cowboys of the world stage.  Putin has shown he understands this, knows exactly how to leverage this to his greatest advantage, and has the balls to stand up to us (mostly because we've built a policy over the years that has allowed it).   Many admire him for that.  Like Putin, the Chinese recognize this and will use it to their advantage to expand their sphere of influence.  As another post/editorial eluded to, Putin lives in the reality of the world and knows how to navigate it to his advantage as opposed to living some fantasy of what the world should be.

We need to adjust our approach such that we place ourselves clearly at the top of the pyramid again as the country others look to and aspire to.   We need to begin _*leading*_ again.


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## dknob (Mar 4, 2014)

JAB said:


> Fuck it, if we're going to have WW3 why not over Ukraine.
> 
> I honestly don't see the strategic benefit for even being tied into NATO with of all places Russia's next-door neighbor Ukraine. If Russia had the same agreements with say Mexico or Canada, we would have an issue with it....say like how we did in the 60's and Cuba?
> 
> I really can't believe we (the world) are so stupid we are going to start the cold war all over again.



We fought WWI and WWII over less important countries


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## Mac_NZ (Mar 4, 2014)

Blame the ensuing disaster on a little known you tube video

.....

Profit?

Actually this crap Ukrainian recruiting video may just have been insulting enough to kick it off.


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## dknob (Mar 4, 2014)

Love the attacks against Obama over this. 
I'm going to start browsing the forums back to 2008 and see if there were any attacks against Bush over Russia invading Georgia.

oh the hypocrisy


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## dknob (Mar 4, 2014)

oh you lucked out. they only go to January 2013


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## Blizzard (Mar 4, 2014)

dknob said:


> Love the attacks against Obama over this.
> I'm going to start browsing the forums back to 2008 and see if there were any attacks against Bush over Russia invading Georgia.
> 
> oh the hypocrisy


The Obama administration is weak without question.  But there is also no question that how we got here is larger than just him.


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## 0699 (Mar 4, 2014)

SOWT said:


> I am not saying put troops into the Ukraine, but bolstering Poland as part of a NATO agreement (to me) is a given, otherwise *disband NATO* as the Russians use our unwillingness to honor treaty committments against us.


 
I agree with disbanding NATO, or at least pulling the US out of NATO.  IMO, we've given a lot more than we've ever gotten, both in material and moral support.  Let the Europeans go it alone for a while.

Crap, I'm starting to sound like a Bircher... :wall:


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 4, 2014)

@dknob, I remember the Georgia invasion thread, its a shame its gone.

As for Bush, he really screwed us up economically without a doubt and Obamas policies from what I can tell have been nothing more than an extension of Bush's. However Bush didn't want to gut our military, and to be fair the Georgian war with Russia (if you can call it that) was as Bush was on his way out of office. Bush seemed to have better relations with Putin then Obama has had. 

But anyway, there is no hypocrisy, a few things have changed in the last 6 years, under Obama and not all of it had to do with Bush or is comparable between the two administrations.

That said, I have no doubt Bush would have claimed Russia as part of the axis of evil and and had a Wanted Dead or Alive poster made up with Putin's face on it. 

Between blow-job Willy, studering Bush and don't cross my red line Obama, its not hard to see how we have gotten here to this point.


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## Brill (Mar 4, 2014)

JAB said:


> Honestly China is really the only true Communist country right now (I put NK under China being the child leader is doing whatever he wants and is simply a puppet on a Chinese string).



Been to China lately? They are about as Communist as California.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101462380


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## Brill (Mar 4, 2014)

dknob said:


> We fought WWI and WWII over less important countries



Those were fought over principles and values.

Now if Ukraine had a community that needed to be organized, we'd shock and awe the shit out of them.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Mar 4, 2014)

lindy said:


> Been to China lately? They are about as Communist as California.
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/101462380



The rural areas of China are still feeling the pains of communism, but yes I agree China is changing. There is an interesting video on youtube that gives the Taiwan view on having to deal with Communist China. I'll see if I can dig it up later.


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## RetPara (Mar 5, 2014)

C&P from a friend who posted this elsewhere.....



> From a retired Soldier over in Ukraine. Something to think about, for Ukraine AND the United States.
> 
> -----------
> 
> ...


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## DA SWO (Mar 5, 2014)

RetPara said:


> C&P from a friend who posted this elsewhere.....


Saw that.

Very interesting.

Well, like everyone here has said; the Ukraine isn't worht fighting over.

I still think a long term exercise in Poland would be beneficial.


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## RetPara (Mar 6, 2014)

Bottling up the Ukrainian naval flotilla.

http://navaltoday.com/2014/03/06/ru...ck-ukrainian-navy-ships/#.UxiUVqqYr1I.twitter


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## reed11b (Mar 6, 2014)

Freefalling said:


> I'm no fan of Poland's military, but we have to honor our treaties or dissolve them.


 Why is that? My experience was that that they were only non-anglo (US-Brit-Canada- Aussie) troops conducting agressive operations in the multi-national zone in Iraq. They seemed pretty profesional for a recently eastern block military.
Reed


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## AWP (Mar 6, 2014)

reed11b said:


> Why is that? My experience was that that they were only non-anglo (US-Brit-Canada- Aussie) troops conducting agressive operations in the multi-national zone in Iraq. They seemed pretty profesional for a recently eastern block military.
> Reed


 
Having worked with and been around their battlegroup in Afghanistan from 08-11. I won't openly list the many reasons why I think that though I'm told they've improved somewhat since 2012 or so. Their first 3 years in country were..."poor."


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## Scotth (Mar 6, 2014)

Their no will in the country regardless of who is sitting in the White House to go to war in Crimeria, Syria, Iran, NK , Russia or anywhere else in the world.  That probably isn't going to change for the next President's term even if we get out of Afghanistan this year.  That is what Russia sees and that is the same calculus Russia used in Georgia and Crimeria. 

Honestly let Russia reconstitute the old empire,  I would love to see their empire come crashing down a second time in my life time.  If Putin wasn't greedy he would take eastern Ukraine for the obvious strategic importance to Russia.  I don't think Putin has the ego to allow him to be satisfied with just makes sense though.


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## DA SWO (Mar 6, 2014)

Scotth said:


> Their no will in the country regardless of who is sitting in the White House to go to war in Crimeria, Syria, Iran, NK , Russia or anywhere else in the world.  That probably isn't going to change for the next President's term even if we get out of Afghanistan this year.  That is what Russia sees and that is the same calculus Russia used in Georgia and Crimeria.
> 
> Honestly let Russia reconstitute the old empire,  I would love to see their empire come crashing down a second time in my life time.  If Putin wasn't greedy he would take eastern Ukraine for the obvious strategic importance to Russia.  *I don't think Putin has the ego to allow him to be satisfied with just makes sense though.*



That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?


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## pardus (Mar 6, 2014)

SOWT said:


> That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?



I honestly don't see that as a viable scenario. Possible? Yeah, but the Krauts aren't going to stand for that again, I think the west would go into mobilize mode pretty quickly.


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## Scotth (Mar 6, 2014)

SOWT said:


> That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?



I hear what your saying and it is obviously a concern.  I don't think we need to be overly worried or at least react in a way that doesn't make sense to our interest.  Worse case scenario is Russia doesn't stop in Crimeria and tries to reconstitute the old empire.

At the end of the day Russia would try to reabsorb a bunch of weak countries.  The economics of Russia hasn't really changed much since the Soviet Union other then oil.  If they have to use their oil money to prop up these weak countries all the better for the US.  We all have to remember that Russia is a HUGE country with a lot of borders to protect.  With China being there closest adversary, absorbing more countries on the western front doesn't make their job easier on the eastern front, it makes it harder.  The oil revenue they are using today to rebuild, is going to be quickly depleted considering the rise in Canadian and US coming power in oil and natural gas exporting and the rise of the Chinese and the weakness of the former Soviet Union countries..

Granted your talking about things that will take decades to play out.  If Russia gets greedy it will probably not be stopped by use but it will lead to their eventual down fall and once again and I can only hope it will happen again in my life time.


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## 0699 (Mar 7, 2014)

SOWT said:


> That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?


 
They'll invade Poland again.



pardus said:


> I honestly don't see that as a viable scenario. Possible? Yeah, but *the Krauts aren't going to stand for that again, I think the west would go into mobilize mode pretty quickly*.


 
My brother, Europe gets a shit ton of their natural gas and petroleum from Russia.  Not sure how'd well they'd mobilize with no POL.


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## AWP (Mar 7, 2014)

Wonder who we'll appoint to command Army Group Vistula?


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## pardus (Mar 7, 2014)

I think I'm going to watch Stalingrad again tonight. 



0699 said:


> My brother, Europe gets a shit ton of their natural gas and petroleum from Russia.  Not sure how'd well they'd mobilize with no POL.



Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier. 

But again, I just don't see Russia as a real threat to the west... at this stage anyway.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 7, 2014)

Looks like this shit sandwich is turning into a shit supper!!

All I can say is line 1-3 N/A, 338ft, Russian Horde, LS 68375235, none, 600m to the east, egress as needed. Call in with heading, all your GBU-31's, instantaneous fuze, expect clearance from Shocker on final.  Word to your Mom it's time to drop bombs!!


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## AWP (Mar 7, 2014)

pardus said:


> Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier.


 
The Americas. For example, Germany consumed 44 million barrels in 1938, the UK 76 million barrels, and Russia consumed 183 million barrels. Germany imported 28 million barrels in 1938. Doing some scattered reading, it looks like Mexico was a major player in oil exports along with Venezuela.

A hard answer would take some digging, but it appears the Americas provided the lion's share of Europe's POL supplies in the 1930's.

ETA: a study of synthetic fuel in Germany. This has some basic numbers and sources.
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm


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## pardus (Mar 7, 2014)

Freefalling said:


> The Americas. For example, Germany consumed 44 million barrels in 1938, the UK 76 million barrels, and Russia consumed 183 million barrels. Germany imported 28 million barrels in 1938. Doing some scattered reading, it looks like Mexico was a major player in oil exports along with Venezuela.
> 
> A hard answer would take some digging, but it appears the Americas provided the lion's share of Europe's POL supplies in the 1930's.
> 
> ...



Yeah that's what I figured. Between the Americas and the ME I think Europe would cope, providing they can keep the supply lines open.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 7, 2014)

Pretty funny, Obama.  Putin sends in troops, seizes Ukrainian military bases and begins large scale air defense preparations.   Obama....he makes a phone call and sends six F-15's.  Those won't last long when the SA-12's and 
SA-15's get spun up....


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## TLDR20 (Mar 7, 2014)

Red-Dot said:


> Looks like this shit sandwich is turning into a shit supper!!
> 
> All I can say is line 1-3 N/A, 338ft, Russian Horde, LS 68375235, none, 600m to the east, egress as needed. Call in with heading, all your GBU-31's, instantaneous fuze, expect clearance from Shocker on final.  Word to your Mom it's time to drop bombs!!



Good luck getting those bombs when our AirForce is going against a horde of quality opposing fighters....


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## Brill (Mar 7, 2014)

If I were CINC, I'd convene my war counsel on Key Largo this weekend!!!


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## DA SWO (Mar 7, 2014)

TLDR20 said:


> Good luck getting those bombs when our AirForce is going against a horde of quality opposing fighters....


I thought all their stuff was second rate.


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## TLDR20 (Mar 7, 2014)

SOWT said:


> I thought all their stuff was second rate.



It is(to an F-22) but there are a lot of them and they could fly from bases in their home country.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 7, 2014)

SOWT said:


> I thought all their stuff was second rate.



Say what?


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## Red-Dot (Mar 7, 2014)

TLDR20 said:


> It is(to an F-22) but there are a lot of them and they could fly from bases in their home country.



Don't know how many of the T-50's they have on line yet....they are pretty nasty.


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## pardus (Mar 7, 2014)

SOWT said:


> I thought all their stuff was second rate.



I just watched a doco about German Mig-29's going up against US F-18s in war games/training, they were at least holding their own, with the US even putting restrictions on what the Germans were allowed to do to win. 
Ive also been hearing that the USAF is having major problems now with the aircraft being worn out during the last two campaigns.


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## DA SWO (Mar 7, 2014)

Red-Dot said:


> Say what?


Gates killed the F-22 (in-part) based on a lack of 1st rate opponents.

The big question is how well trained/maintained are the Russian Pilots/aircraft.


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## 0699 (Mar 7, 2014)

pardus said:


> Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier.


 
Sorry for the shitty source, but I think one of the major reasons Germany invaded Russia was for the raw materials and POL.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa


> *The German economy needed more oil – controlling the **Baku Oilfields** would achieve this; as **Albert Speer**, the German Minister for Armaments and War Production, later said in his post-war interrogation, "the need for oil certainly was a prime motive" in the decision to invade.*





> But again, I just don't see Russia as a real threat to the west... at this stage anyway.


 
IMO, the only way they can be a threat is if we let them be a threat by getting ourselves entangled in their bullshit.  If we decide to get involved (against our own true national strategic interests), it could suck down a lot of money and people.


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## DA SWO (Mar 7, 2014)

The can get big by getting us out of Europe, whic is what the next BRAC could accomplish (geesh, I am argueing in favor of keeping all the existing bases, I hate you Mr Putin).


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## SpitfireV (Mar 7, 2014)

Red-Dot said:


> Don't know how many of the T-50's they have on line yet....they are pretty nasty.



None ATM, all still testing. 



pardus said:


> I just watched a doco about German Mig-29's going up against US F-18s in war games/training, they were at least holding their own, with the US even putting restrictions on what the Germans were allowed to do to win.
> Ive also been hearing that the USAF is having major problems now with the aircraft being worn out during the last two campaigns.



IIRC the main reason they did so well (and it was back in the mid/late 90s too I think?) was because of the IRST aiming that the MiGs had that the US aircraft didn't. US aircraft have got a bunch of helmet mounted aiming systems now so that side of things is a bit more even. That said, it's all about BVR these days, kill them first at range before they you. I'm not sure how good the Russians are at that but they've had 20+ years of others using their systems against the US to learn.


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## pardus (Mar 7, 2014)

0699 said:


> Sorry for the shitty source, but I think one of the major reasons Germany invaded Russia was for the raw materials and POL.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
> 
> .



I disagree, the prime motive for Barbarossa was _Lebensraum_ ('living space') . If the prime motivator was POL, Hitler would have put serious resources into the Afrika Korps and have them take the Caucasus oil fields and saved himself a huge amount of effort and resources.


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## pardus (Mar 7, 2014)

SpitfireV said:


> IIRC the main reason they did so well (and it was back in the mid/late 90s too I think?) was because of the IRST aiming that the MiGs had that the US aircraft didn't. US aircraft have got a bunch of helmet mounted aiming systems now so that side of things is a bit more even. That said, it's all about BVR these days, kill them first at range before they you. I'm not sure how good the Russians are at that but they've had 20+ years of others using their systems against the US to learn.



That was a big factor in the advantage they had, the other was the huge power to weight ratio they had over the US aircraft. The Migs could go vertical without any restriction.

Anyway, here is the doco I watched.


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## RackMaster (Mar 7, 2014)

Sounds like a good reason for Obama to approve Keystone and for us to run another pipeline to a major Eastern port.


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## Red-Dot (Mar 8, 2014)

RackMaster said:


> Sounds like a good reason for Obama to approve Keystone and for us to run another pipeline to a major Eastern port.



F*@$ it.... I say we just frikin' take over Venezuela....oil problem solved and one less asshole country to worry about.


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## 0699 (Mar 8, 2014)

pardus said:


> I disagree, the prime motive for Barbarossa was _Lebensraum_ ('living space') . If the prime motivator was POL, Hitler would have put serious resources into the Afrika Korps and have them take the Caucasus oil fields and saved himself a huge amount of effort and resources.


 
I agree, the PRIME motive for the invasion was "living space"; I never said it wasn't.  I said "one of the major reasons" was POL.  Heck, I'm just quoting Albert Speer, the German Minister for Armaments and War Production.  I assume he'd have known.

My main point is still valid; anything happening in that region is not worth a single American life, including that of my son.


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## pardus (Mar 8, 2014)

0699 said:


> I agree, the PRIME motive for the invasion was "living space"; I never said it wasn't.  I said "one of the major reasons" was POL.  Heck, I'm just quoting Albert Speer, the German Minister for Armaments and War Production.  I assume he'd have known.
> 
> My main point is still valid; anything happening in that region is not worth a single American life, including that of my son.



I just got off the phone with Hitler and he said Speer was full of shit. lol

You are correct.


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## AWP (Mar 8, 2014)

You know the difference between Operation Barbarossa and Operation Iraqi Freedom?

Barbarossa had a civil affairs/post-hostilities plan.


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## 0699 (Mar 8, 2014)

Freefalling said:


> You know the difference between Operation Barbarossa and Operation Iraqi Freedom?
> 
> *Barbarossa had a civil affairs/post-hostilities plan*.


 


I notice you didn't call it a "good" plan...


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## pardus (Mar 8, 2014)

You know the Soviets were a real bunch of pricks when the Ukrainians were celebrating the arrival of the Nazis!


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## JHD (Mar 9, 2014)

http://conservativetribune.com/romney-right-about-russia/


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## DA SWO (Mar 9, 2014)

0699 said:


> I notice you didn't call it a "good" plan...


Patton said a bad plan today is better then a good plan tomorrow.

So why do you think the Post WW II reconstruction plan wasn't good?


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## 0699 (Mar 9, 2014)

Freefalling said:


> You know the difference between Operation Barbarossa and Operation Iraqi Freedom?
> 
> Barbarossa had a civil affairs/post-hostilities plan.


 


0699 said:


> I notice you didn't call it a "good" plan...


 


SOWT said:


> Patton said a bad plan today is better then a good plan tomorrow.
> 
> So why do you think the Post WW II reconstruction plan wasn't good?


 
???

You think the Nazis post-invasion of Russia civil affairs plan was good? :-/


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## MOTOMETO (Mar 9, 2014)

Palin might know a thing or two about a thing or two.


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## DA SWO (Mar 9, 2014)

0699 said:


> ???
> 
> You think the Nazis post-invasion of Russia civil affairs plan was good? :-/





0699 said:


> ???
> 
> You think the Nazis post-invasion of Russia civil affairs plan was good? :-/


Gotcha, mind is fuzzy today.  Thought you were talking about our Post WW II plan.


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## Scotth (Mar 9, 2014)

MOTOMETO said:


> Palin might know a thing or two about a thing or two.



Because the weak Senator Obama's reactions to the Georgia invasion impacted the Russian's actions more then the POTUS actions?  Solid Palin logic.  Surprising that Palin didn't see this coming from her back yard.

Make fun of Joe Biden for all his faults he actually has a record of achievement, what does Palin have for actual achievements.  A pipeline as governor that was suppose to qualify her to be VP and after she quit as governor the project never was completed.


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## 0699 (Mar 9, 2014)

SOWT said:


> Gotcha, mind is fuzzy today.  Thought you were talking about our Post WW II plan.


 
Dude.  You had me worried there for a few...


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## pardus (Mar 10, 2014)

0699 said:


> Dude.  You had me worried there for a few...



LOL me too!


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