# Clarification of U.S military view on DPRK



## Justin Goodwin (Apr 5, 2017)

What do you men think of what is going on with North Korea? You have experience and can make sense of all what President Trump has said and what it means for our military. Is a war coming? I ask just because it is nice to know as a citizen, and someone who would fight for our country. I am of course not asking for actual inside knowledge if anyone thinks that, just asking how I should interpret what I see on the news, and how serious our military is taking this threat.


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## Marauder06 (Apr 5, 2017)

That's an interesting question as only your fourth post on this site.

None of here speak for the "US military."  All of us, even those on active duty, are here in our capacities as private citizens.  In my capacity as a private citizen, my answer to your question is that the decision to go to war or not is probably above the pay grade of those of us here.  It's certainly above mine.

With regard to how you should interpret the news, I suggest you view them in context, taking a look at the source and the history of the issue, using multiple sources to make up your own mind about what is happening now and what is likely to happen in the future.  

For example, North Korea fires off a bunch of missiles every time we do an exercise like Ulchi Focus Lens.  Most new presidents want to talk tough about thorny international issues like China, North Korea, or Israel/Palestine.  None of that necessarily puts us closer to conflict.

As far as readiness goes, you'll find out more details when you join up.  In the meantime, rest assured that our military takes all threats seriously, from rogue states to non-state actors to global warming, and plans accordingly.


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## Justin Goodwin (Apr 5, 2017)

Thank you, and sorry I meant no disrespect or anything wrong in wording, I just did not know how exactly to ask the question the way I intended. I will take that advice!


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## Teufel (Apr 5, 2017)

We wish for best relations with glorious leader!


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## pardus (Apr 17, 2017)




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## Queeg (Apr 17, 2017)

Glorious DPRK forces Final Victory over imperialists is imminent! Surrender now and receive complementary transportation to camp.  #DrinkTheJuche


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Apr 18, 2017)




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## TLDR20 (Apr 18, 2017)

North Korea Successfully Detonates Nuclear Scientist


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## Red Flag 1 (Apr 18, 2017)

[Q


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## Gunz (Apr 18, 2017)

Justin Goodwin said:


> What do you men think of what is going on with North Korea? You have experience and can make sense of all what President Trump has said and what it means for our military. Is a war coming? I ask just because it is nice to know as a citizen, and someone who would fight for our country. I am of course not asking for actual inside knowledge if anyone thinks that, just asking how I should interpret what I see on the news, and how serious our military is taking this threat.



You've just witnessed the science of thread de-evolution. 

In all seriousness, it's typically in character of North Korea to try to antagonize S. Korea, Japan and consequently the US through threats or acts of aggression. This has been going on for decades. It's like a little kid poking a stick at a caged tiger. Our usual reaction is to issue angry statements or conduct naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. And eventually the whole matter just fizzles out.

Whether or not we go to war depends entirely on how much risk North Korean leadership is willing to take. Should the day ever come that NK launches a serious attack against S. Korea, you can pretty much bet the US will step in with at least a massive non-nuclear air and missile response.

Kim would have to be insane to try something like that. Oh, wait...:wall:


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## Devildoc (Apr 18, 2017)

The day NK attacks SK, NK ceases to exist.  There will be a whole lot of property in NK on the cheap for South Koreans who wish to get some elbow room.  NK knows that.


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## CQB (Apr 19, 2017)

The issues for me as a dispassionate civilian observer are firstly the flood of refugees on the likelihood of armed conflict. China will be the first to deal with this problem and as has been noted in open source, to deal with this they have tightened the NK/Chines border. Sth. Korea and possibly Japan also have a problem if north Koreans can get to boats. The primary strategic issue is, if in the case of jus in bello is realised, is that the US will be cheek by jowl against a Chinese border after the dust settles. This is not a circumstance China would want or wish for.  Historically, the Koreans have wanted  a unified peninsula, but it looks to be a way off. Best bet is to break out the cotton wool and apply liberally. The Trump administration has lately has a penchants for surprise attacks (Syria & MOAD) and North Korea may well fit the bill & as all options are 'on the table' I wouldn't dismiss it.


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## Gunz (Apr 19, 2017)

According to Globe Magazine, SEAL Team Six has been assigned the mission to assassinate Kim Jong-un by infiltrating his secret underground bunker. Just reporting what I read in the supermarket check-out lane.


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## Diamondback 2/2 (Apr 19, 2017)

My real opinion on NK and the current situation is, yes something is going to go down. ROK, Japan and China don't want a psychopath thirty something year old with a nuclear weapon capable of going anywhere. Yes I get it, they figured out how to make a bomb, but the mode of delivery is really the ultimate concern.

What I personally see happening, heavy pressure from ROK, USA, China to basically blockade all commerce in or out. Backed with missile defense systems and preempt strike option. Objective here would be to obviously bring NK to its knees and get NK to disarm and stop all nuclear activities to include a possible leadership change.

I think the bullshit has gone as far as it's going to go, so they will either bring them to the table, or we will collectively smack them into shape. Do I think we will use nukes on NK? Not unless they use them first. But that doesn't mean we won't wipeout their deployment capabilities, their military capabilities and leave their government in shambles, via use of conventional weapons. I agree China being part of the coalition is key, and they would have a significant role in the execution of operations and rebuilding of NK. Hell a unified Koera under the ROK system would be beneficial to China, opening up better trade and sales of raw materials, etc.

Anyway, I've watched the back and forth since the 80's. I can honestly say that this is the first time Ive personally seen China show interest in a possible coalition approach, first time Japan has been ramping up their forces and the US has been extremely strong in its words and show of force.

My $.02


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## AWP (Apr 19, 2017)

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump traded acceptance of China's man-made and disputed islands for a Chinese coup/ invasion in NK with the US providing some form of support, especially ballistic missile defense and some limited airstrikes. Chinese troops supported by the strategic use of US airpower? It wouldn't surprise me. The wildcard is NK doing something to SK feeling like it has nothing to lose and wants to take as many with it as possible.


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## CQB (Apr 20, 2017)

That's quite an interesting scenario, given that the PRC is becoming increasingly dominant in the region and could increase their dominance with that outcome. But downstream, what would peace look like? I'm not too sure Koreans would like to be ruled by Han Chinese, given that could be the logical outcome. Would the US give up a long term strategic ally?


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## AWP (Apr 20, 2017)

CQB said:


> That's quite an interesting scenario, given that the PRC is becoming increasingly dominant in the region and could increase their dominance with that outcome. But downstream, what would peace look like? I'm not too sure Koreans would like to be ruled by Han Chinese, given that could be the logical outcome. Would the US give up a long term strategic ally?



To me, when I look at military options for NK the only scenario I envision is total destruction and occupation. There's no building democracy/ partnering with local allies crap....loot and pillage, kill and destroy. I'd like for it to never come to that, but how else do you end NK's nuke program or force that little shit out of power or anything else with a peaceful outcome?

When you look at force you either have doomsday scenarios or really bizarre options. There aren't any sane answers where NK is concerned.


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## Gunz (Apr 20, 2017)

CQB said:


> That's quite an interesting scenario, given that the PRC is becoming increasingly dominant in the region and could increase their dominance with that outcome. But downstream, what would peace look like? I'm not too sure Koreans would like to be ruled by Han Chinese, given that could be the logical outcome. Would the US give up a long term strategic ally?




I can't imagine the US abandoning or dealing ourselves out of an almost 70-year Mutual Defense Treaty and a 113-billion per annum trade partner with whom we have an almost sacred relationship...but who knows? And surely Japan would oppose expanded PRC influence/control on the peninsula.




AWP said:


> To me, when I look at military options for NK the only scenario I envision is total destruction and occupation. There's no building democracy/ partnering with local allies crap....loot and pillage, kill and destroy. I'd like for it to never come to that, but how else do you end NK's nuke program or force that little shit out of power or anything else with a peaceful outcome?
> 
> When you look at force you either have doomsday scenarios or really bizarre options. There aren't any sane answers where NK is concerned.




I wonder if (and it's a big IF) a decapitation strike would be on the table for Trump? Too many unknowns, I suspect, and an intel black hole. But Kim is, more than most dictators, the true head of the snake. The German people worshipped Hitler. Kim's power seems based solely on the abject fear he generates in the top tiers of NK government. But if the Trump Administration tinkered with some EOs, made a few amendments, the legal aspects could be ironed out. Presuming we could actually target the guy, the big question is what kind of reaction would ensue? I think we could rule out any popular involvement, the people are virtual automatons when it comes to political expression...but would Kim's sister take the reins? Would the generals sue for peace or launch nukes at Seoul? How would the PRC react? Not well, I imagine.

Ultimately I think you're probably right. All or nothing.


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## Devildoc (Apr 20, 2017)

Good read on a couple scenarios should NK choose to get froggy:

What Would the Second Korean War Look Like?


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## Il Duce (Apr 20, 2017)

AWP said:


> To me, when I look at military options for NK the only scenario I envision is total destruction and occupation. There's no building democracy/ partnering with local allies crap....loot and pillage, kill and destroy. I'd like for it to never come to that, but how else do you end NK's nuke program or force that little shit out of power or anything else with a peaceful outcome?
> 
> When you look at force you either have doomsday scenarios or really bizarre options. There aren't any sane answers where NK is concerned.



I think the regime is no where near as stable as it was in the last two generations.  I can see civil war and dissolution of the country that way.  Not a peasant uprising - factions within the government fighting.  When you look at how power has become a zero sum game - with the executions of top military folks and family members - I think the calculus for leaders becomes different.  If you're in the ruling junta you go from disagreement to ready for all out war in a snap now, because any disagreement or shift is grounds for execution by AA gun.  Of course, in that scenario control of nuclear sites becomes the ultimate bargaining chip for internal actors.


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## Devildoc (Apr 20, 2017)

Il Duce said:


> I think the regime is no where near as stable as it was in the last two generations.  I can see civil war and dissolution of the country that way.  Not a peasant uprising - factions within the government fighting.  When you look at how power has become a zero sum game - with the executions of top military folks and family members - I think the calculus for leaders becomes different.  If you're in the ruling junta you go from disagreement to ready for all out war in a snap now, because any disagreement or shift is grounds for execution by AA gun.  Of course, in that scenario control of nuclear sites becomes the ultimate bargaining chip for internal actors.



Most of the military are barely-fed conscripts.  I think in the even of a war, civil or external, it would not take much for them to swap their uniforms for civvies and desert.


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## Il Duce (Apr 20, 2017)

Yeah, although I've read the Army gets the majority of the country's supplies - so they'll be better fed than the population.

I would think in a coup or civil war we'd be talking about corps level commanders or above, with a force they could count on a high level of loyalty.  The DPRK fields a huge number of 'special forces' - though I think they're probably more analogous to more elite light infantry forces along the lines of the ROK Marines.

I would think anything like that would start with the seizure or assassination of the supreme leader and a few top lieutenants, followed by factional fighting as each corps commander - or maybe Army Group CDR - tries to figure out which way the wind is blowing and how to pick the best side.  Of course, with a conscript Army the potential for forces to implode, defect, desert, etc. is also very high.  You add unsecured nuclear facilities to that mix and it's a nightmare.

To me, that's one of the reasons China and the ROK may feel pressure to act in the years to come.  Central nuclear facilities are important to the regime - but they become stationary targets of strategic importance.  No nuclear facility owner is going to be able to launch a missile on their own - at best/worst they're in control of fissile materials and technology worth a great deal on the black market.  If the DPRK nuclear program progresses to the point of having mobile launchers - or even hidden fixed sites with autonomous launch capability - you have a totally different situation.  Now, in the event the regime starts falling apart to infighting, a local commander could conceivably launch missiles on their own if they seize the right facilities and codes.  That's a totally untenable situation for the peninsula.  China and the ROK (and maybe Japan) could not allow themselves to be caught in that situation - because they'd have the danger of facing an existential threat without the means to counter it in time.  It's the way a lot of Israelis look at a fully nuclear capable Iran - because that's just how they would structure their launch sites (having learned the lesson from Iraq that when you put all your eggs in one basket the IDF blows your basket to hell).


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## Marauder06 (Apr 20, 2017)

TLDR20 said:


> North Korea Successfully Detonates Nuclear Scientist



Started laughing just reading the headline


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## Jammer (Apr 22, 2017)

There's a great book that I read recently called, "Dear Leader."  It's by a North Korean defector that was one of  Kim Jong Il's  history revisionists.  Having lived inside the regime, he pretty clearly outlines why North Korea does what they do in terms of policy.  A lot of it boils down to food.  When the outside world had policies that were lenient toward North Korea's regime  they'd begin saber rattling all over again to get food.  The author of the book claims that the closest that the Kim regime ever came to losing it's control over the people was when we stopped giving them food.    In fact, since we never actually signed any sort of treaty to formally end the Korean war, the North Korean regime refers to any sort of aid they get as "spoils of war".


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## Red Flag 1 (Apr 22, 2017)

[Q


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## Jammer (Apr 24, 2017)

According to the book, it really is like a cult over there. The Kim family didn't rise to their positions by being military experts. They  got there by being expert propagandists first and foremost and ruthless politicians.  Whenever there's a food shortage there's bullshit about how the "great leader" only sustains himself on one ball of rice to help people.  In practice, only loyalty to the regime is rewarded, and with more food.


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## Red Flag 1 (Apr 24, 2017)

[Q


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## Devildoc (Apr 24, 2017)

Ooh-Rah said:


> Been a long time since I've seen a headline where China was attempting to be the calming factor:
> 
> China calls for restraint as U.S. carrier group heads for Korean...



China is well aware of the potential for collateral damage, and the potential for goodwill by being the "calm presence" in the region.


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## CQB (May 1, 2017)

I posted this interview some time ago now but its' worth a rerun given the current bruhaha, if you have the time... 

Anna Broinowski: inside the North Korean film industry


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## Jammer (May 3, 2017)

I've spent some time in China working there (maritime industry).   As best as I understand, their economy and standard of living has increased dramatically since they started trading with us.  Most of the Chinese would much rather get rich off of us rather than fight us.  North Korea definitely threatens that.


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## Blizzard (May 3, 2017)

Jammer said:


> According to the book, it really is like a cult over there. The Kim family didn't rise to their positions by being military experts. They  got there by being expert propagandists first ...


What do you mean propagandists?  I just don't see it...


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## Topkick (May 3, 2017)

Jammer said:


> the "great leader" only sustains himself on one ball of rice to help people





When was that?


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## Red Flag 1 (May 3, 2017)

I


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## BloodStripe (May 3, 2017)




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## Ooh-Rah (May 4, 2017)

You are welcome...


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## Frank S. (Nov 17, 2017)

Bullet points....

N Korea defector has 'enormous parasites'

"The defector crossed the demilitarised zone on Monday, but was shot several times by North Korean border guards.

Doctors say the patient is stable - but "an enormous number" of worms in his body are contaminating his wounds and making his situation worse.

His condition is thought to give a rare insight into life in North Korea.

"I've never seen anything like this in my 20 years as a physician," South Korean doctor Lee Cook-jong told journalists, explaining that the longest worm removed from the patient's intestines was 27cm (11in) long. [...] 
"I don't know what is happening in North Korea, but I found many parasites when examining other defectors," Professor Seong Min of Dankook University Medical School was quoted by the Korea Biomedical Review as saying.

But Prof Lankov points out that compared with other countries with a similar per capita income - like Bangladesh or many African countries - the population in North Korea is healthier than one would expect."


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## Red Flag 1 (Nov 17, 2017)

.


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## Topkick (Nov 17, 2017)

Justin Goodwin said:


> What do you men think of what is going on with North Korea? You have experience and can make sense of all what President Trump has said and what it means for our military. Is a war coming? I ask just because it is nice to know as a citizen, and someone who would fight for our country. I am of course not asking for actual inside knowledge if anyone thinks that, just asking how I should interpret what I see on the news, and how serious our military is taking this threat.



Prepare for war, but hope and pray for peace. That's what most of us do.


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## BloodStripe (Nov 17, 2017)

Red Flag 1 said:


> This is really quite revealing. The most likely source is through their diet, how the food is grown and prepared for eating. They mention using "night soil" as their fertilizer and this just passes parasites from one person to another. Once the parasites are in the GI tract, they pull a lot of nutrients from the food that is eaten. So you have people with healthy and thriving intestinal parasites, with chronically ill and malnourished host.
> 
> This snapshot suggests that at least some of N Korea's military is malnourished and chronically ill. They may have trouble mounting much of a defense with a fighting force that is so malnourished. Even if they are getting sufficient amounts of food, the intestinal parasites are the winners, not the soldiers.



DPRK leadership has to think that most NK soldier's won't survive past the first couple of days. They (DPRK) will more than likely use nuclear or other WMD's and know this will cause us to retaliate with our own nukes.


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## Il Duce (Nov 18, 2017)

Red Flag 1 said:


> This is really quite revealing. The most likely source is through their diet, how the food is grown and prepared for eating. They mention using "night soil" as their fertilizer and this just passes parasites from one person to another. Once the parasites are in the GI tract, they pull a lot of nutrients from the food that is eaten. So you have people with healthy and thriving intestinal parasites, with chronically ill and malnourished host.
> 
> This snapshot suggests that at least some of N Korea's military is malnourished and chronically ill. They may have trouble mounting much of a defense with a fighting force that is so malnourished. Even if they are getting sufficient amounts of food, the intestinal parasites are the winners, not the soldiers.



I think it's also a reasonable assumption that the DPRK works hard to ensure the military is better fed and cared for than the population at large.  I'm sure there are significant differences within unit types but if that Soldier is indicative of the nutrition of active-duty conventional forces I can only imagine what the population at-large is like.

I read years ago - and I can't remember the source so not sure the data behind it - that the average North Korean was 6 inches shorter and 30 IQ points dumber than their average South Korean counterpart due to malnutrition.


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## Totentanz (Nov 18, 2017)

Il Duce said:


> I think it's also a reasonable assumption that the DPRK works hard to ensure the military is better fed and cared for than the population at large.  I'm sure there are significant differences within unit types but if that Soldier is indicative of the nutrition of active-duty conventional forces I can only imagine what the population at-large is like.
> 
> I read years ago - and I can't remember the source so not sure the data behind it - that the average North Korean was 6 inches shorter and 30 IQ points dumber than their average South Korean counterpart due to malnutrition.



The part that jumped out to me is that I assume that NK and SK handle their border deployments in similar fashion to India and Pakistan (fuck Pakistan) in that - in addition to what you said above - they send their biggest dudes to eat well, work out, and intimidate the other side as best they can.  One article said the defector was 5'5" and 132 lbs.  If that's at all representative of NK's goon squad... holy crap.


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## Kaldak (Nov 18, 2017)

When I accompanied my grandfather to Korea as part of a 6th Anniversary tour, when we visited the DMZ, our briefing included a diagram showing how much defectors have shrunk in average hieght. The male average was 5'5" and the female was 4'11". They also informed us that the NK's we would see at the border are the tallest soldiers in their military to present a picture of strenght. They were insanely skinny, but all 6ft+. It was very bizarre including the dude standing way back using a camcorder from the 80s to record us.


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