Ukraine - Russia Conflict

So this war is about to heat up. You know, emplacing restrictions on the use of war material is how you create a strategic defeat. We currently have emplaced significant restrictions on Ukraine, which has enabled Russia to re-create the Northern front. Remember that amazing counter-offensive to retake Kharkiv? Well...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1790201973779693920

One day, when this entire country is just a bunch of cloned transvestites, they might look back on the horrible decisions that led to our downfall.

Let them fight.
 
Before the whole funding 'freeze" or whatever, when people were screaming about money for the Ukraine...

How much had we already delivered? Let's say we delivered...70%, then the other 30% wasn't of the type required? The other 30% of promised aid just wasn't delivered, so why do we need to spend more...

There's absolutely no way we have delivered everything we said we would, so until that benchmark is met, why are we sending more? If we're falling short with that undelivered aid, is it so vital its absence is creating the current conditions or are we spending money on bullshit and each aid package has a pretty high "fluff to kill" ratio?
 
AWP said:
Before the whole funding 'freeze" or whatever, when people were screaming about money for the Ukraine...

How much had we already delivered? Let's say we delivered...70%, then the other 30% wasn't of the type required? The other 30% of promised aid just wasn't delivered, so why do we need to spend more...

There's absolutely no way we have delivered everything we said we would, so until that benchmark is met, why are we sending more? If we're falling short with that undelivered aid, is it so vital its absence is creating the current conditions or are we spending money on bullshit and each aid package has a pretty high "fluff to kill" ratio?
Click to expand...

So there was some chart somewhere on the socials talking about of the 175B authorized for Ukraine, only 103B went to Ukraine and less than 100B of that was lethal aid. (probably even less but still classed as military material) And you know, it hasn't been delivered on time.
 
AWP said:
Before the whole funding 'freeze" or whatever, when people were screaming about money for the Ukraine...

How much had we already delivered? Let's say we delivered...70%, then the other 30% wasn't of the type required? The other 30% of promised aid just wasn't delivered, so why do we need to spend more...

There's absolutely no way we have delivered everything we said we would, so until that benchmark is met, why are we sending more? If we're falling short with that undelivered aid, is it so vital its absence is creating the current conditions or are we spending money on bullshit and each aid package has a pretty high "fluff to kill" ratio?
Click to expand...

Whatever we eventually physically get into their hands will never be enough to do anything north of maintaining a stalemate, delaying the inevitable. I’m convinced no matter what we send it won’t be enough to turn the tide of battle and lead to a Ukrainian victory.

Belousov, Putin’s new defense minister, is by all accounts, competent…and may have more success managing Russia’s military-industrial complex in such a way as to better counter western aid to Ukraine.
 
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It's still costing the Russians a lot, tightened up NATO, and got Europe thinking about their own security w/o the U.S. in the mix, all while grinding down Soviet-era stocks that still take a missile or a round to kill, while stripping the blinders off anyone who thought Russia or China were our 'friends.' And forced Western Powers to seriously address the idea that wars are not cheap and the military, diplomatic, and economic preparations they have to fight them are all crappy, at best. And forced the US to revamp our own weapons manufacturing as we figured out we'd eat a lot faster into our war stocks than we thought. Never mind the intel--UAVs! Hypersonics! UAS! Oh my!--and operational testing we're getting out of this.

All that for a couple hundred billion or so? Without one US military life lost? Seems like a good deal to me. We'll just print more.

FWIW, I want the Ukrainians to win. Frankly, as long as Putin draws breathe and/or the Russians taking out the sitting government themselves, it won't end well for Ukraine. I don't see it as a lost cause, not yet; but it's long past the time to start looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.
 
Keep in mind - it costs money just to administer a program

You want to give foreign aid money?

Gotta pay the government staffers that oversee the programs
Gotta pay the employees that write the policy.
Gotta pay the contractor that prepared the proposal.
Gotta pay the accountants.
Gotta pay the logisticians.
Gotta pay the acquisitions specialists.
Gotta pay the software engineers.
Gotta pay the IT folks.
Gotta make a few campaign donations.
Gotta pay the maintenance folks.

THEN...
...whatever is left, you give to the folks that transfer the funds
...they pay THEIR staff with whatever is left over from that pile
...then the bag man gets his the 'bag-person' gets Xir cut and delivers it to the nation that is getting the 'aid package'
...then they pay THEIR folks
...then, whatever is left after putting a few bucks in your off-shore bank account, can be used to pay for lethal aid
...and THAT check is cut and given back to the company that lobbied the government staffers that oversee the programs in the first place

Rinse
Repeat
 
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I do wonder how the F-16s they're supposed to be getting will be employed and what success rate they'll have. I doubt it will turn the entire thing around, but it might just make AD a little easier. A whole lot of 'it depends' in that, I know, but it should still prove interesting to watch.
 
talonlm said:
I do wonder how the F-16s they're supposed to be getting will be employed and what success rate they'll have. I doubt it will turn the entire thing around, but it might just make AD a little easier. A whole lot of 'it depends' in that, I know, but it should still prove interesting to watch.
Click to expand...

I agree. The Su-25s and MIGs they've been getting are old. They're supposed to get around 50 or so F16s from Netherlands, Sweden and Norway (I think)...but about a dozen of those are non-operational and are being sent just for spare parts.

I guess the big delay is training the Ukrainians to fly them.
 
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talonlm said:
It's still costing the Russians a lot, tightened up NATO, and got Europe thinking about their own security w/o the U.S. in the mix, all while grinding down Soviet-era stocks that still take a missile or a round to kill, while stripping the blinders off anyone who thought Russia or China were our 'friends.' And forced Western Powers to seriously address the idea that wars are not cheap and the military, diplomatic, and economic preparations they have to fight them are all crappy, at best. And forced the US to revamp our own weapons manufacturing as we figured out we'd eat a lot faster into our war stocks than we thought. Never mind the intel--UAVs! Hypersonics! UAS! Oh my!--and operational testing we're getting out of this.

All that for a couple hundred billion or so? Without one US military life lost? Seems like a good deal to me. We'll just print more.

FWIW, I want the Ukrainians to win. Frankly, as long as Putin draws breathe and/or the Russians taking out the sitting government themselves, it won't end well for Ukraine. I don't see it as a lost cause, not yet; but it's long past the time to start looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.
Click to expand...

Are you sure? Pretty sure this administration has no idea about what you've written. We're losing all over the place to China.
 
Without writing a whole bunch... I think we're going to pay a hefty price by focusing on tactics of Ukr and Rus when a Chinese conflict will be focused on cyber. And that truly scares me. I tell people at work all the time that I don't care about Russia and Ukraine. I don't think they understand how China can rearrange our living situation in the states. From their large scale offensive cyber operations to SCM/SCRM. When our lights go out, and there's no way to power gas pumps, cool our food, and keep our homes warm/cool, what are we going to do? NSA going to be able to handle all that?
 
GOTWA said:
Without writing a whole bunch... I think we're going to pay a hefty price by focusing on tactics of Ukr and Rus when a Chinese conflict will be focused on cyber. And that truly scares me. I tell people at work all the time that I don't care about Russia and Ukraine. I don't think they understand how China can rearrange our living situation in the states. From their large scale offensive cyber operations to SCM/SCRM. When our lights go out, and there's no way to power gas pumps, cool our food, and keep our homes warm/cool, what are we going to do? NSA going to be able to handle all that?
Click to expand...

I think we're learning from the current conflict's cyber attacks, and we're getting better. My concern is China's headstart and their ability to pour more resources into cyber attacks than we can into cyber defense.
 
AWP said:
I think we're learning from the current conflict's cyber attacks, and we're getting better. My concern is China's headstart and their ability to pour more resources into cyber attacks than we can into cyber defense.
Click to expand...
Exactly. "Getting better," means we're already behind. If we're going to heavily rely on contractors to support, can you imagine if they're the Boeing(s) of the cyber world? Lord help us.
 
GOTWA said:
When our lights go out, and there's no way to power gas pumps, cool our food, and keep our homes warm/cool, what are we going to do?
Click to expand...

Raise taxes?
No, wait, we'll ban assault weapons.
Wait, I meant, we'll blame Trump.
No - we will blame climate change.
Even better, we can blame Trump for the climate change that caused our lights to go out.
Then we can ban fossil fuels and mandate that everyone buys an electric car.
...and THEN we can impose tarfifs on electric cars !!

because FUCK cHynUh
 
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