A Prudent Discussion

[CQB]

After several white papers the Defense Strategist Review (DSR) here, our government is getting into gear. It’s a little too late and a bit slow but a least they’re having a go. What’s been missing and has been labeled ‘a frightening discussion’ in the Australian Financial Review (20-21 April p.06) is the reluctance to how we’d mobilize support in the event of a major conflict. This covers supply resilience, local manufacturing (currently nonexistent), roads, railways, ports are all supported, evacuation, shelter, food and meds. If there’s an acknowledged credible risk, where’s the plan to mitigate it? Apparently no-one wants to talk about an evident threat to the wider public. We’ve had plans here in the past but it doesn’t make sense not to have one now.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

Any way Australia can pull what Japan does regarding small scale manufacturing? Like in how they have small scale factories that focus on making specific components and can be retooled to do different things? Think like a small scale machine shop that can go from milling parts to painting metal sheets, but highly automated.

Another thing. Given that y'all have a smaller population than the Japanese, maybe some of their automated manufacturing practices and tools could also help shore up your manufacturing issues.

 

[AWP]

Any way Australia can pull what Japan does regarding small scale manufacturing? Like in how they have small scale factories that focus on making specific components and can be retooled to do different things? Think like a small scale machine shop that can go from milling parts to painting metal sheets, but highly automated.

Another thing. Given that y'all have a smaller population than the Japanese, maybe some of their automated manufacturing practices and tools could also help shore up your manufacturing issues.

That's not a bad model, but the tooling is the long pole in the tent. Those shops would have to be carefully designed and maintained to support multiple industries within the same building. That said, I like the idea and think you could perform that on a small scale with industries which don't require a huge footprint or that can easily retool. The Brits did what you describe in WWII. Bicycle manufacturers retooled to make Sten guns and furniture makers did the same to make Hurricanes and Mosquitos. You also need workers familiar with those manufacturing methods for a distributed manufacturing base.

I like your idea and it could work. The problem is retooling costs, availability, and time required. The upside is your skilled workforce would need minimal training to shift gears.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

That's not a bad model, but the tooling is the long pole in the tent. Those shops would have to be carefully designed and maintained to support multiple industries within the same building. That said, I like the idea and think you could perform that on a small scale with industries which don't require a huge footprint or that can easily retool. The Brits did what you describe in WWII. Bicycle manufacturers retooled to make Sten guns and furniture makers did the same to make Hurricanes and Mosquitos. You also need workers familiar with those manufacturing methods for a distributed manufacturing base.

I like your idea and it could work. The problem is retooling costs, availability, and time required. The upside is your skilled workforce would need minimal training to shift gears.

Thanks. Honestly yeah, the availability of automated tooling and the cost of it will be a bottle neck. Design and maintenance of workshops might be easier to implement thanks to 3D modeling. The Nippons already have working small scale factories, it wouldn't be much to fly out Aussie engineers to see how they do it.

That said, manufacturing isn't Australia's only bottle neck. They're going to have to apply the same process to processing and refining their natural wealth. In one case, it would mean figuring out how to make small automated foundries; to melt iron ore into primary and then intermediary grades of steel. They basically have to figure out how to be their own China, but with a handful of people.

Mexico's materials processing model might also be palatable to the Australians. Though they'll have to use German or Japanese technology to automate those processes.

 

[AWP]

Thanks. Honestly yeah, the availability of automated tooling and the cost of it will be a bottle neck. Design and maintenance of workshops might be easier to implement thanks to 3D modeling. The Nippons already have working small scale factories, it wouldn't be much to fly out Aussie engineers to see how they do it.

That said, manufacturing isn't Australia's only bottle neck. They're going to have to apply the same process to processing and refining their natural wealth. In one case, it would mean figuring out how to make small automated foundries; to melt iron ore into primary and then intermediary grades of steel. They basically have to figure out how to be their own China, but with a handful of people.

Mexico's materials processing model might also be palatable to the Australians. Though they'll have to use German or Japanese technology to automate those processes.

I don't have a clue about the answer, so this is semi-rhetorical, but what raw materials do they depend upon? What don't they possess and how hard is it to ramp up production if needed?

Anyway, you'd also have to spread your shops around the country as the Japanese discovered during WWII. Fun fact: XX Bomber Command almost ran out of napalm and the US had to go to some extraordinary lengths to resupply the B-29's with fire juice.

Other problems with distributed manufacturing are cost and the all important logistics. Great, you've spread out your assets and it is very difficult to degrade your manufacturing efforts. Do you have the trains and trucks to move the stuff? The US strategic bombing campaign didn't really pay dividends until A) P-51s showed up and B) they switched to rail yards and bridges (though the latter was usually a medium bomber problem and less than effective).

"But what about the Ho Chi Minh Trail?" Eh, not the same. Modern nations require modern logistics. Shut down some bridges, interstate overpasses, interstate junctions like I-95 and I-10, regional truck yards (some of those terminals are massive) and now you can make all you want, but you can't deliver. That goes for raw materials and the finished product alike.

Another fun fact and then I'll stop because you're all probably bored: Get a Masters in Logistics and you become sought after by intel agencies. Why? You know how to compute throughput based on factors like roads, bridges, etc., plus a whole host of other things related to shipping. In the 90's I worked with a guy whose brother did just that from the University of Maryland. Dude graduated and started at the CIA at their next pay cycle.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

I don't have a clue about the answer, so this is semi-rhetorical, but what raw materials do they depend upon? What don't they possess and how hard is it to ramp up production if needed?

Anyway, you'd also have to spread your shops around the country as the Japanese discovered during WWII. Fun fact: XX Bomber Command almost ran out of napalm and the US had to go to some extraordinary lengths to resupply the B-29's with fire juice.

Other problems with distributed manufacturing are cost and the all important logistics. Great, you've spread out your assets and it is very difficult to degrade your manufacturing efforts. Do you have the trains and trucks to move the stuff? The US strategic bombing campaign didn't really pay dividends until A) P-51s showed up and B) they switched to rail yards and bridges (though the latter was usually a medium bomber problem and less than effective).

"But what about the Ho Chi Minh Trail?" Eh, not the same. Modern nations require modern logistics. Shut down some bridges, interstate overpasses, interstate junctions like I-95 and I-10, regional truck yards (some of those terminals are massive) and now you can make all you want, but you can't deliver. That goes for raw materials and the finished product alike.

Another fun fact and then I'll stop because you're all probably bored: Get a Masters in Logistics and you become sought after by intel agencies. Why? You know how to compute throughput based on factors like roads, bridges, etc., plus a whole host of other things related to shipping. In the 90's I worked with a guy whose brother did just that from the University of Maryland. Dude graduated and started at the CIA at their next pay cycle.

I don't really know. I know Australia is an agricultural exporter and produces an excess of coal, metallic ores, and a rare earth materials. For imported raw materials best guess would be rubber, fertilizer, and petrochemicals. Regarding finished and semi finished materials there are a lot of holes, but we're only in a better position due to our proximity to Central and South America.

I think the biggest handicap is their population and finding suitable land to build industry on. China will be going the way of the dodo, which means that Australia won't be able to rely on Chinese manufacturing. European manufacturing is looking spotty with the war in Ukraine. Which means that the Australians are going to have to start processing their own raw materials into finished products or rely on stuff coming from the Americas.

Logistically, most of Australia's habitable lands are near the coasts. So the issue would be getting raw materials to coastal manufacturing hubs, processing them, and then shipping those materials via water. The southern side of Australia is out of missile range for Chinese assets which should provide a measure of safety.

@CQB How are the inland transportation routes? Could a small inland community have a small manufacturing plant and get materials out?

 

[CQB]

@R.Caerbannog It can be done. Down in Hobart Tasmania the rail yard there was making train engines and carriages and along side that, they swapped to artillery pieces during WW2. So the finished product would have been shipped. Lithgow Small Arms Factory is a little way inland behind Sydney which is another example as they made sewing machines along with the .303 rifle and others like the SLR.

I also think the Draft might have to considered and that would be part of the very difficult conversation. There's rockets and drones but someone had to push the button and someone else has to assess battle damage. We don’t have enough of anything TBH. Anzac Day is coming up so there might be a whisper or two about the general situation.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

@R.Caerbannog It can be done. Down in Hobart Tasmania the rail yard there was making train engines and carriages and along side that, they swapped to artillery pieces during WW2. So the finished product would have been shipped. Lithgow Small Arms Factory is a little way inland behind Sydney which is another example as they made sewing machines along with the .303 rifle and others like the SLR.

I also think the Draft might have to considered and that would be part of the very difficult conversation. There's rockets and drones but someone had to push the button and someone else has to assess battle damage. We don’t have enough of anything TBH. Anzac Day is coming up so there might be a whisper or two about the general situation.

That's rough, I'm sorry. On the bright side, you guys have the logistical infrastructure already in place to move stuff around. Same with the raw materials to build an army of drones. For recruiting, I have no idea. If you can sell drone warfare to the generation raised by video games they might bite. For the guys on the ground assessing battle damage maybe a call to national and civic pride?

Given your population numbers though, a draft might not be a bad idea. If you can show every Australian their stake in the coming conflict they'll likely be more invested in retooling, rearming, and manning the ranks of your armed forces. That said you're going to be competing with the degeneracy that is modern society. Sorry I can't help.