I'm actually not all that worried about this. Sure, when you see the words
China and
Pakistan and
Nuclear in one sentence it sets off every single alarm bell in your head. Consider this, though: Pakistan already has
three aging nuclear reactors. Two are in Chashma (which is in central Pakistan) and the aforementioned one in Karachi. China already has plans to
build two more modern reactors in Chashma, which are expected to come online in the next 2-3 years. They'll generate a shitton of energy for Pakistan, which currently gets about 60% of its energy from burning fossil fuels. Pakistan has also suffered economic slowdown in the past due to constant energy crises.
Okay, I know there are a lot of concerns about this. Earthquake, terrorism, and Pakistan being Pakistan all top the list (as they should). However, there are a number of reasons that these concerns aren't as big as you think. Caveat: I am not an expert in nuclear science, but I generally follow the technology side of things.
The first thing to understand is that nuclear power is
one of the safest forms of power production per terawatt hour. Granted it does make for huge and splashy headlines when it happens, but realistically nuclear power has had an incredibly safe and efficient track record.
Okay, so how about that earthquake threat? First: the earthquake that triggered the Tsunami that fucked up Fukushima registered
9.0 on the richter scale. Nine point zero. It was the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history. By comparison, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami combo measured 9.1 on the scale and killed over 200,000 people. The point is this: there is no building on earth that could have survived that earthquake. And that brings me to my second point: Fukushima Daaichi units 1-4 were built in the 60's and 70's, and were what are typically called "Generation II" reactors. Both Chernobyl and Three Mile Island were built in the mid-70's, for comparison. Essentially, these were all older designs that did not have many of the safeguards that are to be integrated into the Gen III reactors that China is building. These safeguards essentially prevent the out-of-control, self-sustaining reactions that occurred at Chernobyl. One of the most significant is a feature of pressurized-water reactors. Put simply, these reactors require a constant flow of highly pressurized water in order to sustain the nuclear reaction. If there's a loss of pressure due to, say, an earthquake or explosion, the plant loses pressure and the reaction just shuts down. It self-regulates. Granted, if a magnitude 9.0 earthquake hits, the plant is going to be hyperfucked anyway, but the likelihood of having a meltdown is very low.
So, terrorism, right? Well for one, Pakistan's existing nuclear stockpile is a much juicier target for terrorism than the slightly-enriched uranium as is typically used in heavy water nuclear reactors. By "slightly-enriched", I mean that regular uranium fuel has a concentration of the U235 isotope of between 1-2%, far below the threshold for a conventional nuclear weapon (which starts at 20%). Of course, to breach a nuclear facility, steal the fissile material, and get out without dying of supercancer, you would need state sponsorship and a ton of assets in place. Johnny Talib isn't going to saunter down from Peshawar, shoot a few gate guards and scientists, shout some Allahu Ackbars and get out with a uranium fuel rod in his shalwar. For one, the
each fuel assembly is pretty big. It's also under a ton of water and generating crazy amounts of heat. A pair of thieves in Mexico
found out the hard way that carting around even a tiny amount of unshielded material is bad news. Now, I get that some of you might be thinking about
Israel's alleged theft of weapons-grade material back in the 60's, but again consider that this was highly-enriched uranium suitable for building a bomb. Not a nuclear fuel rod sitting inside a reactor. Like I said, Pakistan's existing nuclear stockpile would be much more attractive to a state-sponsored terrorist group with significant technological and material backing.
Lastly, even the IAEA thinks that Pakistan does a
decent-enough job with its nuclear program.
Alright, I'm all out of effort with that post. Hope you enjoy!
