Devildoc
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Most of the military are barely-fed conscripts. I think in the even of a war, civil or external, it would not take much for them to swap their uniforms for civvies and desert.
Clarification of U.S military view on DPRK
- Thread starter Justin Goodwin
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Most of the military are barely-fed conscripts. I think in the even of a war, civil or external, it would not take much for them to swap their uniforms for civvies and desert.
Yeah, although I've read the Army gets the majority of the country's supplies - so they'll be better fed than the population.
I would think in a coup or civil war we'd be talking about corps level commanders or above, with a force they could count on a high level of loyalty. The DPRK fields a huge number of 'special forces' - though I think they're probably more analogous to more elite light infantry forces along the lines of the ROK Marines.
I would think anything like that would start with the seizure or assassination of the supreme leader and a few top lieutenants, followed by factional fighting as each corps commander - or maybe Army Group CDR - tries to figure out which way the wind is blowing and how to pick the best side. Of course, with a conscript Army the potential for forces to implode, defect, desert, etc. is also very high. You add unsecured nuclear facilities to that mix and it's a nightmare.
To me, that's one of the reasons China and the ROK may feel pressure to act in the years to come. Central nuclear facilities are important to the regime - but they become stationary targets of strategic importance. No nuclear facility owner is going to be able to launch a missile on their own - at best/worst they're in control of fissile materials and technology worth a great deal on the black market. If the DPRK nuclear program progresses to the point of having mobile launchers - or even hidden fixed sites with autonomous launch capability - you have a totally different situation. Now, in the event the regime starts falling apart to infighting, a local commander could conceivably launch missiles on their own if they seize the right facilities and codes. That's a totally untenable situation for the peninsula. China and the ROK (and maybe Japan) could not allow themselves to be caught in that situation - because they'd have the danger of facing an existential threat without the means to counter it in time. It's the way a lot of Israelis look at a fully nuclear capable Iran - because that's just how they would structure their launch sites (having learned the lesson from Iraq that when you put all your eggs in one basket the IDF blows your basket to hell).
I would think in a coup or civil war we'd be talking about corps level commanders or above, with a force they could count on a high level of loyalty. The DPRK fields a huge number of 'special forces' - though I think they're probably more analogous to more elite light infantry forces along the lines of the ROK Marines.
I would think anything like that would start with the seizure or assassination of the supreme leader and a few top lieutenants, followed by factional fighting as each corps commander - or maybe Army Group CDR - tries to figure out which way the wind is blowing and how to pick the best side. Of course, with a conscript Army the potential for forces to implode, defect, desert, etc. is also very high. You add unsecured nuclear facilities to that mix and it's a nightmare.
To me, that's one of the reasons China and the ROK may feel pressure to act in the years to come. Central nuclear facilities are important to the regime - but they become stationary targets of strategic importance. No nuclear facility owner is going to be able to launch a missile on their own - at best/worst they're in control of fissile materials and technology worth a great deal on the black market. If the DPRK nuclear program progresses to the point of having mobile launchers - or even hidden fixed sites with autonomous launch capability - you have a totally different situation. Now, in the event the regime starts falling apart to infighting, a local commander could conceivably launch missiles on their own if they seize the right facilities and codes. That's a totally untenable situation for the peninsula. China and the ROK (and maybe Japan) could not allow themselves to be caught in that situation - because they'd have the danger of facing an existential threat without the means to counter it in time. It's the way a lot of Israelis look at a fully nuclear capable Iran - because that's just how they would structure their launch sites (having learned the lesson from Iraq that when you put all your eggs in one basket the IDF blows your basket to hell).
Started laughing just reading the headline
There's a great book that I read recently called, "Dear Leader." It's by a North Korean defector that was one of Kim Jong Il's history revisionists. Having lived inside the regime, he pretty clearly outlines why North Korea does what they do in terms of policy. A lot of it boils down to food. When the outside world had policies that were lenient toward North Korea's regime they'd begin saber rattling all over again to get food. The author of the book claims that the closest that the Kim regime ever came to losing it's control over the people was when we stopped giving them food. In fact, since we never actually signed any sort of treaty to formally end the Korean war, the North Korean regime refers to any sort of aid they get as "spoils of war".
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According to the book, it really is like a cult over there. The Kim family didn't rise to their positions by being military experts. They got there by being expert propagandists first and foremost and ruthless politicians. Whenever there's a food shortage there's bullshit about how the "great leader" only sustains himself on one ball of rice to help people. In practice, only loyalty to the regime is rewarded, and with more food.
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Devildoc
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China is well aware of the potential for collateral damage, and the potential for goodwill by being the "calm presence" in the region.
I posted this interview some time ago now but its' worth a rerun given the current bruhaha, if you have the time...
Anna Broinowski: inside the North Korean film industry
Anna Broinowski: inside the North Korean film industry
I've spent some time in China working there (maritime industry). As best as I understand, their economy and standard of living has increased dramatically since they started trading with us. Most of the Chinese would much rather get rich off of us rather than fight us. North Korea definitely threatens that.
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Bullet points....
N Korea defector has 'enormous parasites'
"The defector crossed the demilitarised zone on Monday, but was shot several times by North Korean border guards.
Doctors say the patient is stable - but "an enormous number" of worms in his body are contaminating his wounds and making his situation worse.
His condition is thought to give a rare insight into life in North Korea.
"I've never seen anything like this in my 20 years as a physician," South Korean doctor Lee Cook-jong told journalists, explaining that the longest worm removed from the patient's intestines was 27cm (11in) long. [...]
"I don't know what is happening in North Korea, but I found many parasites when examining other defectors," Professor Seong Min of Dankook University Medical School was quoted by the Korea Biomedical Review as saying.
But Prof Lankov points out that compared with other countries with a similar per capita income - like Bangladesh or many African countries - the population in North Korea is healthier than one would expect."
N Korea defector has 'enormous parasites'
"The defector crossed the demilitarised zone on Monday, but was shot several times by North Korean border guards.
Doctors say the patient is stable - but "an enormous number" of worms in his body are contaminating his wounds and making his situation worse.
His condition is thought to give a rare insight into life in North Korea.
"I've never seen anything like this in my 20 years as a physician," South Korean doctor Lee Cook-jong told journalists, explaining that the longest worm removed from the patient's intestines was 27cm (11in) long. [...]
"I don't know what is happening in North Korea, but I found many parasites when examining other defectors," Professor Seong Min of Dankook University Medical School was quoted by the Korea Biomedical Review as saying.
But Prof Lankov points out that compared with other countries with a similar per capita income - like Bangladesh or many African countries - the population in North Korea is healthier than one would expect."
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Prepare for war, but hope and pray for peace. That's what most of us do.
DPRK leadership has to think that most NK soldier's won't survive past the first couple of days. They (DPRK) will more than likely use nuclear or other WMD's and know this will cause us to retaliate with our own nukes.
I think it's also a reasonable assumption that the DPRK works hard to ensure the military is better fed and cared for than the population at large. I'm sure there are significant differences within unit types but if that Soldier is indicative of the nutrition of active-duty conventional forces I can only imagine what the population at-large is like.
I read years ago - and I can't remember the source so not sure the data behind it - that the average North Korean was 6 inches shorter and 30 IQ points dumber than their average South Korean counterpart due to malnutrition.
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