Iraq and ISIS Discussion

Another issue would be that some Kurds see their historic homeland as extended much farther south than what modern history credits them with. After all, Tikirt was the birthplace of Salah al Din, who was a Kurd.

Is there a Kurdish desire to return to the status of the Ayyubid dynasty? Just imagine how that would change US foreign policy in the region! We're talking WWII-era "cooperation" with the ME states (plus a proxy to battle the IS)!!!
 
When seeing stuff like this, it's very disheartening.

Iran-Backed Militias Are Getting U.S. Weapons

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-08/iranbacked-militias-are-getting-us-weapons-in-iraq


The spread of Iran-backed militias are more disheartening to me now than the origin of their weapons. It seems to me that Iran is destined to become the regional power in the ME, supplanting us and everybody else. Apparently the Iranians are rapidly expanding their influence throughout Iraq and may, in the not too distant future, have a considerable degree of control there. Saddam is no longer a threat. The Taliban are occupied elsewhere. Syria's in turmoil, so is Yemen. Iran is stable, powerful and perhaps on the verge of weaponized nukes. Does anyone agree with this?
 
The spread of Iran-backed militias are more disheartening to me now than the origin of their weapons. It seems to me that Iran is destined to become the regional power in the ME, supplanting us and everybody else. Apparently the Iranians are rapidly expanding their influence throughout Iraq and may, in the not too distant future, have a considerable degree of control there. Saddam is no longer a threat. The Taliban are occupied elsewhere. Syria's in turmoil, so is Yemen. Iran is stable, powerful and perhaps on the verge of weaponized nukes. Does anyone agree with this?

It was a foreseeable outcome - a Shia government in a country where a) Shi'ites are the minority and b) that used to be an enemy (ie the friendly faction has just taken over) on the border of Iran was going to not only accept Iranian help, but likely to pursue it as an ideologically-aligned friendly government. It would be akin to Cuba being overtaken by a pro-western movement during the Cold War - they would have immediately sought the help of the US and we would have given it. None of this makes Iran any less of an enemy.

Stable? Debatable. Iran has a HUGE amount of tension between the 18-35 voting block (35 and under comprise more than half the population) and the fundamentalists who overthrew the Shah in 1979. They're doing better than many in the CENTCOM AOR, but they have some significant internal issues to resolve. As with everything else, basic services (namely power and water) are also causing issues between "Yusuf the Plumber" and the powers that be.

Iran stands in a good position to exploit the current situation (and they DEFINITELY don't want to see a violent Sunni caliphate sitting on their western border), but their ability to emerge as a world power (and dominate the region) rests entirely on how well the government - namely the IRGC, Supreme Leader, and Assembly of Experts, along with the other government entities - manages to handle how Iran interacts with the modern world and the younger elements of their nation.
 
Well there's an increase in political bullshit over our guys firing back at the goat fuckers that fired on our guys. So the Prime Minister responded today...

"This is a robust mission ... if those guys fire at us we're going to fire back and we're going to kill them, just like our guys did, and we're very proud of the job they're doing in Iraq," he told reporters in St. Catharines, Ontario.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/re...Iraq-militants-attack-Canadian-troops-PM.html
 
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Apparently the media has gotten so used to covering the US rolling over and making excuses for everything that they weren't expecting someone to stand FOR shooting those bastards in the face.
 
Well there's an increase in political bullshit over our guys firing back at the goat fuckers that fired on our guys. So the Prime Minister responded today...

I was actually talking about just this with my CANSOF LNO today.. He seems to think that it's mostly just political though and that most of the population are all about killing ISIL.
 
I was actually talking about just this with my CANSOF LNO today.. He seems to think that it's mostly just political though and that most of the population are all about killing ISIL.

Oh it is. The people for the most part are all for killing all those fuckers. There's an election coming this year and the other parties are looking for anyway to get ahead.
 
ISIS Suffers Heaviest Defeat in Iraq in a Single Day

Over the last 24 hours, ISIS has been defeated in every front in Iraq in unprecedented way. From Mosul to the north to Anbar to the west and Diyala to the east, Iraqi government forces, Shiite militias, Sunni tribes and Kurdish forces were all victorious in battle.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/isis-suffers-heaviest-defeat-iraq-101500786.html


Suuuuck it!
 
Oh it is. The people for the most part are all for killing all those fuckers. There's an election coming this year and the other parties are looking for anyway to get ahead.
If the people were all for killing IS, then it wouldn't be a problem.

It's the same with the Taliban- they DO have support and people DO favor them in the regions they control. Don't for a second think that Sunni Arabs in Iraq are not ready for a change.
 
...Stable? Debatable. Iran has a HUGE amount of tension between the 18-35 voting block (35 and under comprise more than half the population) and the fundamentalists who overthrew the Shah in 1979. They're doing better than many in the CENTCOM AOR, but they have some significant internal issues to resolve...

That's true, good point. And I believe there was, or is, some pie-in-the-sky hope that exposure to social media will somehow ignite an Arab Spring in Iran among that 35 and under demographic. But the Iranian government, as I understand it, has been pretty good at clamping the lid on that kind of interaction.

Likewise, when Clinton was POTUS the going theory among the same kind of idealists was that if you expose China to Western capitalism, i.e. trade, human rights and democracy would naturally follow. So far, that hasn't exactly worked out, and judging by the amount of cheap Chinese shit in my house, that deal kind of backfired.

I don't see social media or even tech-media igniting another Iranian revolution. And the West is making a terrible mistake thinking Iran's nuclear program is intended for peaceful energy. I suspect Netanyahu will make that point when he addresses a joint session of Congress upcoming. If all you want is a reactor, you invite foreign investment and foreign experts in and poof pretty soon you have a powerplant. You do it in the open, you don't spend the kind of effort Iran has spent on trying to hide and cloak every aspect of their nuclear program.

As Iran fights ISIS and makes inroads through its militias and spreads political influence through Iraq and Syria, it draws physically closer to Israel. I think Netanyahu is very concerned about this.
 
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Igniting a revolution IS pie in the sky. The movements in Iran will be on the strategic, not tactical level. The exposure to social media isn't going to be the instant-gratification panacea our current culture likes so much. But it has exposed that voting block to outside thoughts and ideas (not necessarily Western thoughts and ideas, and they don't have to be) that scare the current establishment. This isn't going to be a giant "ooh, democracy, let's get right on that". But it has forced the government to acknowledge and address the desire of Iranian youth to do things like 1) engage the rest of the world (via social media), 2) access Western/outside entertainment 3) shift social norms such as apparel, public behavior, and so forth and so on.

To give you an example, Facebook has been banned for quite a while, but during the last presidential election, all candidates (to include the fundamentalists, not just the progressives, and yes "progressive" is a relative term) had both Facebook and Twitter accounts. It's a small change, but a telling one when they're forced to violate their own rules to keep up with the populace.

So no, Iranian change won't be quick, but it is occurring, and in ways the government is having a hard time controlling.

On Israel - I'm really not sure how many people ACTUALLY want to nuke Israel. Nuclear strike capability, sure (that brings the regional/global standing we've been talking about, and domestically makes the government look good/competent), but IMO, while there are some who would eliminate the Israelis, for a LOT of Iranian politicians, it's more about having a common enemy for your Two Minutes Hate in the state-controlled messaging than it is about an actual ideology.
 
Given the improbability of escape, rescue or ransom, becoming a hostage of these sadistic fucks is an almost guaranteed death sentence. On the other hand, if you go around sawing people's heads off you're not gonna make any friends and payback, eventually, will be a painful motherfucker. Let's hope it comes sooner rather than later.
 
Reading the comments on that story (like a fool idiot), I was appalled at how many people I saw who actually think this was a terrible idea on Jordan's part. "Eeeewww, no, don't do it! Don't be like ISIS! Execution is always wrong." Never have I seen wholesale ignorance of a culture in such stark relief before.
 
ISIS isn't going to give two fucks if Jordan executes their guys. I like Jordan's thinking though.
 
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