Iraq and ISIS Discussion

Saw a tweet from CNBC...apparently we're considering sanctions against Russia and Syria because of Aleppo...we need to quit wasting treasure on that conflict before we start wasting blood.
 
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Got a few questions about daesh militants in/around Mosul. Most news outlets quote the Pentagon and intelligence agencies claiming there are 5,000-15,000 militants in Mosul. Just wondering what this community estimates. I find it hard to believe that they can only field a max of 15,000 militants from a city of 1 million people living underneath their rule. Also, is it likely that ISIS moves combatants in from Tal Afar or commits to a large counter offensive out of Hawija? (civilian with intro completed a couple years ago).
 
This is what happens without a cohesive national strategy and only "hope &change".

Plans to send heavier weapons to CIA-backed rebels in Syria stall amid White House skepticism

The proposal, which involved weapons that might help those forces defend themselves against Russian aircraft and artillery, made its way onto the agenda of a recent meeting President Obama held with his national security team.

And that’s as far as it got. Neither approved nor rejected, the plan was left in a state of ambiguity that U.S. officials said reflects growing administration skepticism about escalating a covert CIA program that has trained and armed thousands of Syrian fighters over the past three years.

The operation has served as the centerpiece of the U.S. strategy to press Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step aside. But U.S. officials said there are growing doubts that even an expanded version could achieve that outcome because of Moscow’s intervention. Obama, officials said, now seems inclined to leave the fate of the CIA program up to the next occupant of the White House.
Click to expand...
 
Phoenix15 said:
Got a few questions about daesh militants in/around Mosul. Most news outlets quote the Pentagon and intelligence agencies claiming there are 5,000-15,000 militants in Mosul. Just wondering what this community estimates. I find it hard to believe that they can only field a max of 15,000 militants from a city of 1 million people living underneath their rule. Also, is it likely that ISIS moves combatants in from Tal Afar or commits to a large counter offensive out of Hawija? (civilian with intro completed a couple years ago).
Click to expand...

That's one of the frustrating things about this whole situation, the fact that such relatively low numbers of fighters can take over such a strategically important city.

I don't know what the numbers are, if the public reports are 5-15k then that's fine with me. We often saw masses of fighters drift away when they figured out that the Americans... er, I mean the Iraqis were "serious this time." They're probably leaving enough fighters behind to make things really, really difficult for everyone, but I don't think they're interested in "fight and die" en masse.
 
Marauder06 said:
That's one of the frustrating things about this whole situation, the fact that such relatively low numbers of fighters can take over such a strategically important city.

I don't know what the numbers are, if the public reports are 5-15k then that's fine with me. We often saw masses of fighters drift away when they figured out that the Americans... er, I mean the Iraqis were "serious this time." They're probably leaving enough fighters behind to make things really, really difficult for everyone, but I don't think they're interested in "fight and die" en masse.
Click to expand...

I think it's a really interesting aspect of these failed or low-functioning state insurgencies - the ability for insurgents to control large swathes of territory and population with a limited force, especially when conventional expeditionary forces (like the US) cannot do so even with much larger formations. I read that in the American Revolution only about 1/3 of the white male citizenry had a strong position on independence on each side - with the remaining 1/3 having no position. Then, from that ideological base still less than 10% of the people actually participated in any form in the revolution (troops, resources).

The idea that a small portion of the population with organization, motivation, and supply (arms, ammunition, communication) can dominate a much larger area/population is one we really ought to explore more thoroughly in examining COIN or just political science in general. Islamists have dominated the counter-revolution, if not the revolution itself throughout the middle east and increasingly Africa. It seems to me the scholarship and understanding of the practical aspects of those accomplishments is very thin.
 

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