Is Al Qaeda Over-Rated?

[Rabid Badger]

SunTzu's books and quotes are relative to ongoing world events and shouldn't be ignored (as they have been for the last 7 years).

Here's an example:

http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/s/sun_tzu.html

Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent's fate.
Sun Tzu

 

[Typhoon]

"I reject the notion that Al Qaeda is waiting for 'the big one' or holding back an attack," Sheehan writes. "A terrorist cell capable of attacking doesn't sit and wait for some more opportune moment. It's not their style, nor is it in the best interest of their operational security. Delaying an attack gives law enforcement more time to detect a plot or penetrate the organization."

Are you kidding me? Now, obviously in my civilian position I don't have my finger on the pulse of all the activity going on in the AQ world; but then again, does anyone? These are folks who operate as tribal groups virtually off the grid in some of the most remote places on the face of the earth. That makes them extrordinarily difficult to monitor electronically and penetrate using human intelligence.

People forget that it was 8 years from the first attack on the World Trade Center until the second one. These are people with a lot of patience, fortitude, and intelligence. In my humble opinion it would be a mistake to underestimate either their will or their capabilities. Of course I'm not saying that AQ's operational capabilities haven't been seriously degraded. However, we have to be right everywhere and everytime, AQ only has to be right one time...

As my attorney, a former SF VN Vet, once advised me: "Keep your left up!"

SunTzu's books and quotes are relative to ongoing world events and shouldn't be ignored (as they have been for the last 7 years).

Dead on...

 

[Royal]

People forget that it was 8 years from the first attack on the World Trade Center until the second one. These are people with a lot of patience, fortitude, and intelligence.

Ain't that the truth

Of course I'm not saying that AQ's operational capabilities haven't been seriously degraded.

Degraded? Where exactly?

They're smaller in Afghanistan than they were in 2001, but they're far bigger just across the border, either around Quetta or in NWFP/FATA.

They're smaller in Iraq than a couple of years back, but then they weren't in Iraq in 2001.

They've taken some hits in Algeria, but they've spread to cover most of the Maghreb, bar Libya. Never thought I'd say thank you Qadafi

They've hit the UK (several times), Spain once (but they changed the result of an election), nearly hit Germany and Denmark (and got their Embassy in Pakistan anyway).

We're spending billions on defence and can't even stand up to a third rate tinpot dictator like Putin when he invades an ally (oh and they're slotting his troops and police by the dozen on a weekly basis too).

Then there are the are they, aren't they, AQ franchises - Lebanon, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, India, China, Nigeria.

Still, keeps me in a job

 

[Swill]

Michael Scheuer doesn't think so.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JI27Ak03.html

 

[Rabid Badger]

Thanks Swill. Great article!

Pak, Iraq, A-stan, Mindanao, North Caucasus, Gaza..and many more....

and now:

Islamists in Somalia have regrouped and rearmed since the December 2006, US-backed Ethiopian invasion of the country and are now again contesting with the Ethiopians for control of Mogadishu.

Can you say collateral damage? Sink the boat now. Somalia is ripe for an AQ insurgency.

Pretty soon they'll have their own political party because of their ability to affect the security of other African nations through strife....Can you say PLO?

Sink the ship now.

AQ cannot be allowed to port with 33 Russian tanks and rocket launchers. When a ship embarks with rocket launchers, we're not talking 2 or 3. We're talking 2 or 3 thousand, or 2 or 3 hundred thousand.

I regret to say the hostages will not survive the sinking.....RIP.....you knew what was onboard and where you were going...

 

[Ravage]

Never underestimate your opponent.

No I do not think AQ is 'over-rated'.

 

[Blackjack78]

Overrated? Almost 3,000 dead on 9/11/01 alone. Perhaps they are less capable but they still exist. I believe that the CONUS threat is homegrown,small cells and probably leaderless. Think youth gangs, they need a charismatic mentor or person of influence if you will and an identity. In addition, Muslim Brotherhood is a big problem IMHO.

 

[7point62]

Al Qaeda's not overrated. If they get hold of a WMD they will not hesitate to use it.

 

[AugieSpook]

AQ is no different than Hamas, Hezbollah and the rest of the jihadists. Collectively they may be the most difficult to combat as they blend in very well with the general public and they are almost superhero like to the youth in their communities. I would say they are very dangerous but not necessarily the biggest threat we are facing. China and N. Korea and possibly Russia are major forces to contend with. Iran needs a major ass whoopin but who has time for that right now?