Richard K. Betts. Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security. New York: Columbia University Press, September 2007. 264 pp. ISBN: 978-0-231-13888-8 (cloth).
Reviewers: Erik J. Dahl, Glenn Hastedt, Richard Russell
Introduction by Joshua Rovner, Williams College
"The intelligence community," writes Richard Betts, "is the logical set of institutions to provide what one might call the library function for national security: it keeps track of all sources, secret or not, and mobilizes them in coherent form whenever nonexpert policymakers call on them" (5). Intelligence is also the logical place to explore how states perceive the world around them. Decades of work by political scientists and diplomatic historians have attempted to uncover the roots of misperception and misjudgment in international relations. Betts' book focuses on the intelligence community itself: the set of institutions that is specifically tasked to ferret out information on international threats and opportunities. In the ideal, good intelligence informs policy judgment and leads to better decisions about strategy and statecraft. In reality, accurate and timely intelligence is hard to come by, and leaders are often wary of the intelligence community itself. Betts' long study of intelligence has revolved around the question of why it so often fails to approach the ideal. Enemies of Intelligence revisits some of his well-known answers, adds some new ones, and applies them to contemporary controversies.
The obstacles to the effective use of intelligence are what Betts > calls the "enemies of intelligence." Outside enemies are the foreign targets of intelligence collection who conceal their activities and deceive the watchers. Innocent enemies include professional incompetence, poor organizational design, or other self-inflicted wounds that inhibit the quality of intelligence. Finally, inherent enemies refer to human limitations and trade-offs that come with decisions about intelligence. Human beings suffer from cognitive biases that skew their perceptions; this happens to the intelligence producer as well as the intelligence consumer. The low-level intelligence analyst and the high-level policymaker both interpret information through the prism of their own preexisting beliefs. The fact that information necessarily passes through these filters ensures that there will always be space between the objective facts, the analysis of those facts, and the policymaker's response to new intelligence. Moreover, psychological limitations make it difficult to sense important changes in the international environment. Individuals look for patterns in the data, and this causes them to downplay or ignore anomalies.
The implications are unsettling. The existence of inherent enemies means that the major problems of intelligence are unsolvable. The intelligence community can try to outfox the outside enemies and mitigate the innocent ones, but the inherent enemies limit the accuracy of estimates, the timeliness of warnings, and the ability of intelligence to influence decisions about national security. Surprise attacks and intelligence failures are inevitable.
The reviewers in this roundtable agree that this is as a useful way to conceive of the obstacles to effective intelligence. Betts is unique among intelligence scholars for his devotion to theory, as well as his effort to make sure that his theories lead to practical recommendations for policymakers and intelligence officials. His three-part typology not only sheds light on the causes of failure, but it also speaks to the ongoing debates about intelligence reform in the aftermath of September 11 and the war in Iraq. Appropriate reforms must start with a plausible explanation for the causes of failure. Reforms that are decoupled from those causes will not improve performance, and those that ignore the inherent enemies of intelligence will be costly and futile. This idea, of course, is anathema to reform advocates who believe that the solution to intelligence failure is reorganization and that surprise attacks can be prevented through better bureaucracy.
While the reviewers find the typology helpful, they also ask for elaboration. Erik Dahl begins by arguing that Betts puts too much emphasis on the inherent enemies. This is important for Betts because it underlies his claims about the futility of large scale reorganization, but the external and innocent enemies of intelligence beg for more discussion.
Richard Russell argues that focusing too much on the inherent enemies cannot help us distinguish between different levels of intelligence performance over time. In the short term, intelligence officials need fine grained measures of success and failure in order to determine best practices. But there are broader implications in Russell's critique. The sense of fatalism in Enemies of Intelligence has implications for the public view of intelligence as well as the role of intelligence in the policy process. How can Congress and the public judge the intelligence community if we assume that surprises are inevitable? Why should we invest billions of dollars annually into a bureaucracy that is doomed to fail at least some of the time? What can policymakers expect from the intelligence services? Why should they bother reading intelligence in the first place?
Russell and Dahl are both experienced intelligence officers and scholars, and they sympathize with the difficulties involved in providing accurate estimates and early warning of future attacks. But they worry that Betts is too forgiving. Indulging in the view that failure is inevitable can absolve the intelligence community of serious shortcomings. As Russell puts it, "his argument that intelligence failures are inevitable can be too easily used as a shield to protect downright negligent strategic intelligence performances." For instance, Betts argues that the flawed conclusions about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction were reasonable given the paucity of available evidence. To Russell, this obscures the bigger point: the U.S. intelligence community focused on Iraq for more than a decade without being able to uncover useful data about its WMD program. This failure of collection was compounded by "shoddy analysis," and the result was a series of overly confident intelligence estimates that were based on extremely flimsy information.
The other side of the coin is that focusing on failure makes it hard to understand the success stories. There is no reason to let intelligence agencies off the hook if they have demonstrated the ability to succeed in difficult situations, and Dahl notes that several recent terrorist plots have been foiled partly because of effective intelligence work. A better understanding of the prospects and limits of intelligence requires looking beyond familiar failures like Barbarossa, the Yom Kippur War, and the sudden fall of the Shah. There may not be perfect solutions for the inherent enemies of intelligence, but there are ways of managing the problem.
Turning from the related issues of failure and surprise attack, Glenn Hastedt addresses the question of how policymakers use intelligence. Scholars have traditionally focused on intelligence producers while giving short shrift to the behavior of intelligence consumers. But intelligence only matters inasmuch as it affects policy decisions; even perfect intelligence products are useless if they do not find a receptive audience.
In Enemies of Intelligence, Betts revisits a longstanding debate on the appropriate relationship between leaders and intelligence officials. On one side are those who seek to insulate intelligence from policymakers so that they are not infected with policy biases. On the other side are those who argue that insulating intelligence from the policy process makes it irrelevant to decisions about national security. Betts has previously leaned in the direction of relevance over pure objectivity, but admits to some doubt given the controversy over prewar intelligence on Iraq.
Hastedt identifies a different kind of tension lurking just under the surface of this discussion: whether it is possible for intelligence to remain objective in a democracy. Hastedt notes that preserving the analytical integrity of intelligence estimates is difficult because policymakers are strongly tempted to use intelligence in bureaucratic battles and public debates. Unfortunately, the public presentation of intelligence is usually stripped of nuance because policymakers cannot afford to hedge when they are trying to mobilize support for their plans. The incentives to politicize intelligence are thus built into the structure of the policy process.
Going public might make it impossible for intelligence agencies to remain independent of political considerations. Intelligence estimates offer conditional forecasts and usually do not include point predictions about future events. The reason is that information is ambiguous and international politics are uncertain. Recognizing these truths is fine as long as intelligence estimates are not used as political footballs in public or bureaucratic fights. The increasing use of intelligence in public, however, may force intelligence officers to make firmer conclusions than the evidence allows. If this is correct, then politicization has less to do with the interaction between leaders and intelligence officials than with the nature of contemporary policymaking.
The idea that September 11 marked a significant change in world politics has become commonplace in discussions of intelligence and national security. But did 9/11 really change everything? The answer has important implications for debates over the future of intelligence. Reform advocates warn against complacency in an era of change, where rogue states and terrorists have replaced great powers as the main threats to U.S. security. Skeptics warn against overreaction. Unsurprisingly, the question is the subject of debate among the participants in this roundtable. Betts argues that intelligence in the Cold War faced more straightforward challenges. The main target was a nation-state instead of a shadowy network of non-state actors, and important questions like the disposition of Soviet strategic forces could be answered with advanced technological collection assets like imagery satellites. Dahl agrees, noting that success against modern threats will require prosaic solutions (e.g. better cooperation between intelligence and law enforcement) rather than exotic technologies. On the other hand, Hastedt argues that Betts is too nostalgic for what he calls th e
Betts' answer is more complicated, however. He recognizes the emergence of new threats like al Qaeda, but he also emphasizes that some problems are inherent and unchanging. This informs his view of the appropriateness of different kinds of intelligence reform. The rise of non-state threats requires changes in how intelligence agencies are allowed to operate. For example, Betts provocatively argues that the United States ought to set "priorities among liberties" when considering the balance between the need for domestic intelligence and the personal right to privacy (162-168). He rejects the choice between security and liberty as a false dichotomy, arguing instead that expanded domestic surveillance is permissible as long as the principle of due process is strengthened. The legal consequences of this argument are profound because, as Betts notes, there is no "hierarchy of liberties" in the Constitution. But the seriousness of the threat means that Congress and the courts need to think proactively about how to best maintain civil liberties while also improving intelligence collection. Failure to do so could lead to a situation in which individual rights are jettisoned in the aftermath of another attack.
But while some things have changed, Betts argues that most things have not. The inherent enemies of intelligence are not sensitive to changes in international politics. Psychological shortcomings and ambiguous data will inhibit intelligence regardless of whether the threats are from great powers or transnational terrorists. Betts' attention to the inherent enemies causes him to warn against radical efforts to reorganize the intelligence community.
The question of continuity and change is also related to Betts' distinction between "normal theory" and "exceptional thinking" (53-65). Normal theory involves the accumulation of knowledge that generates predictions about "golden age of intelligence." Estimates of the Soviet Union were consistently plagued with uncertainty. Without the benefit of hindsight, the mysteries about Soviet intentions were no less perplexing than the mysteries about al Qaeda or Iran. adversaries' expected behavior. Intelligence agencies cultivate institutional methods of predicting the most likely course of events in any given place, based on specific assumptions about adversaries' intentions and general theories about international politics. Normal theory is a necessary precaution against pure speculation and unchecked fantasizing about nightmare scenarios that lead to irrational and counterproductive policy responses.
The problem is that unusual events, however unlikely, can have catastrophic consequences for the unprepared. Events that are outside the parameters of normal theory are unlikely to be predicted by analysts working in the confines of the intelligence community. Nonexpert observers are more open to the possibility of anomalies, possessing the kind of exceptional thinking that may alert policymakers to looming dangers. The difficulty for intelligence community is cultivating the right balance between normal and exceptional thinking; that is, to make the most of the accumulated wisdom of professional analysts without falling victim to bureaucratic inertia and intellectual sclerosis.
Enemies of Intelligence is chock full of both kinds of thinking. Betts' theories on intelligence are informed by a long study of dip lomatic and military history, but the book also offers fresh ideas on new > dilemmas. Careful theorizing and historical analysis have been conspicuously > absent from public controversies over intelligence since the September 1 attacks. Betts' book, as well as the following commentaries, injects some badly needed sobriety into the debate.
Participants:
Richard K. Betts (Ph.D., Harvard, 1975) is a specialist on national security policy and military strategy. He is director of the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Betts was a Senior Fellow and Research Associate at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC from 1976-1990, and has taught at Harvard University and the Johns Hopkins University's Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. In addition to numerous journal articles in International Security, World Politics, Foreign Affairs, and elsewhere he has published Military Readiness (Brookings, 1995); Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, 2nd edition (Columbia University Press, 1991); Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance (Brookings, 1987); and Surprise Attack (Brookings, 1982). He has also coauthored or edited three other books, including The Irony of Vietnam (Brookings, 1979), which won the Woodrow Wilson Prize; and Conflict after the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace (Pearson Education, 2005)
Erik J. Dahl received his Ph.D. from The Fletcher School of Tufts University, and was until August 2008 a research fellow at the Belfer Center of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. In September 2008, he will join the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School as an assistant professor of national security affairs. He retired from the U.S. Navy in 2002 after serving 21 years as an intelligence officer, and from 1999 to 2002 he served on the faculty of the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. In addition to his Ph.D. and a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School, he holds master's degrees from the London School of Economics and the Naval War College. His work has been published in The Journal of Strategic Studies, the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Joint Force Quarterly, Defence Studies, and The Naval War College Review. He is currently working on a study of unsuccessful terrorist plots against Americans during the past twenty years.
Glenn Hastedt received his Ph.D. in political science from Indiana University. He is professor and chair of the justice Studies Department at James Madison University, prior to that he was professor and chair of the political science department. He is the author of American Foreign Policy: Past, Present, Future, 7th edition (Pearson Prentice Hall 2008). He has edited two books on intelligence, Controlling Intelligence (Frank Cass, 1991) and Intelligence Analysis and Assessment (co-editor, Frank Cass, 1996). His most recent articles on intelligence include "Foreign Policy by Commission: Reforming the Intelligence Community," Intelligence and National Security, (2007), "Public Intelligence: Leaks as Policy Instruments," Intelligence and National Security (2005 and "Estimating Intentions in an Age of Terrorism: Garthoff Revisited," Defense Intelligence Journal (2005).
Joshua Rovner received his Ph.D. in Political Science from MIT in 2008. He is currently the Stanley Kaplan Postdoctoral Fellow in Leadership Studies and Political Science at Williams College, where he teaches courses on international security and American foreign policy. His dissertation, "Intelligence-Policy Relations and the Problem of Politicization," won the Lucian Pye Award for best thesis in political science at MIT. He has published in International Security, The International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Strategic Insights, and The Boston Globe
Richard L. Russell holds a Ph.D. in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia and is a member of the International Institute for strategic studies. He is Professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University's Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. He also holds appointments as Adjunct Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program and Research Associate in the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. Russell has published widely the fields of international relations, American foreign policy, security studies, intelligence, > and Middle Eastern security. Russell is the author of three books: Sharpening Strategic Intelligence: Why the CIA Gets It Wrong and What Needs to be Done to Get It Right (Cambridge University Press, 2007); Weapons Proliferation and War in the Greater Middle East: Strategic Contest (Routledge, 2005); and George F. Kennan's Strategic Thought: The Making of an American Political Realist (Praeger, 1999).
Review by Erik Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School/Harvard Kennedy School of Government
Richard Betts is arguably America's foremost scholar of intelligence, and in his excellent new book, Enemies of Intelligence, he offers reflections based on three decades of studying intelligence failures and the role of intelligence in national security. A number of the book's chapters > are revisions of earlier works, including his classic 1978 World Politics article in which he first laid out his case for the inevitability of intelligence failure.1 Roughly half the book is new, however, and while the book reads in spots more like a collection of essays than a coherent whole, it nonetheless represents a valuable overview of the key issues facing American intelligence today.
His typology of "enemies of intelligence," introduced in chapter 1, is somewhat useful: outside enemies (foreign adversaries), innocent enemies (such as intelligence professionals or policy makers who fail to produce or use intelligence effectively), and inherent enemies (such as natural human cognitive limitations and organizational constraints). But I found the title to be a bit of a red herring, because Betts quickly dispenses with the first two sets of enemies, and for most of the book focuses on the third set of inherent enemies, which he argues are the most difficult to overcome. A more tightly organized book might have maintained the "enemies" theme throughout, examining each type in turn, looking in more detail at questions such as how today's outside enemies-primarily terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, but also nation states like Iran and China-compare with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The real primary focus of the book-familiar to readers of Betts's other works on intelligence-is on the limitations of what intelligence can do. Betts argues that politicians and pundits who expect the intelligence community to do a significantly better job than it has in the past are likely to be disappointed. The best we can hope for, in his view, are "limited but meaningful improvements" in intelligence performance (184). As have a number of other scholars of intelligence, Betts writes that improving intelligence is similar to increasing a baseball player's batting average-marginal improvements can be possible, but in the end, even the best player will strike out much of the time. Betts calls this a "tragic view" of intelligence failure, and repeats a phrase of his that has been widely quoted: "intelligence failures are not only inevitable, they are natural" (51).
At the same time, Betts makes what might seem to be a contrary argument: that even though failures are inevitable, the U.S. intelligence community has actually done a pretty good job in recent years. He acknowledges that Intelligence agencies failed to predict the 9/11 attacks and erred in estimating the state of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction > programs, but he sees both as understandable and excusable mistakes. Before 9/11, he writes, the intelligence community had provided a considerable amount of long-range, strategic warning on the threat from al Qaeda. What it couldn't produce was tactical, specific warning of the plot being developed-but that, he believes, was not surprising, because such tactical warning is almost never available. And even if more intelligence had been collected-and more dots connected-the added information might just have resulted in more noise, drowning out whatever meaningful data there was.
Similarly, Betts lets the intelligence community off easy when it comes to the issue of Iraq's WMD. At first glance he seems to be harshly critical of intelligence, calling the episode "the worst intelligence failure since the founding of the modern intelligence community" (114). But he goes on to explain that the mistaken intelligence estimate was not itself an egregious failure, because it was the right estimate to have made based on the intelligence available. The real failure, in Betts's view, was in two different effects that the mistaken intelligence estimate had on American society and policy. First, it tarnished the credibility of the intelligence community, distracting attention from the otherwise good work done by American intelligence in the run-up to the war in Iraq. Second and more importantly, the mistaken WMD estimate "provided the warrant for war against Iraq, a war that was unnecessary and that cost far more blood and treasure than the September 11 attacks" (115).
I have relatively minor quibbles about two incidents Betts recounts in the book. In the first, he relates the often-told story about how on September 10, 2001, the National Security Agency intercepted messages that appeared to discuss the upcoming attacks-but it didn't get around to translating them until September 12 (107). Betts rightly notes that because these messages were unspecific, they would not have made much difference even if they had been translated more quickly. But he should have pointed out that the staff of the 9/11 Commission dete rmined that those communications had probably referred not to the 9/11 attacks, but to the opening of a Taliban and al Qaeda military offensive in Afghanistan at about the same time.2
The second incident has practically achieved the status of an urban legend. Numerous authorities, including the 9/11 Commission, President Bush, and now Betts in this book, have reported that as a result of leaks in the Washington Times in 1998, Osama bin Laden learned the U.S. was monitoring his satellite phone calls (181). Not surprisingly-or so the story goes-bin Laden immediately stopped using that phone, and the U.S. lost a crucial source of intelligence that could possibly have led to his capture and the prevention of the 9/11 attacks. The problem is that the story may well be false. Although Betts notes in an endnote that the Washington Times has disputed the story, it would have been appropriate to mention that others have challenged the story as well, arguing that bin Laden's satellite phone usage had been described in media accounts dating back to 1996 and that it is quite possible he decided to adopt a lower profile in August 1998 because the U.S. had just tried to kill him with cruise missiles.3
My own view is that Betts is more right than wrong in his key point about the inevitability of intelligence failure, but I have two major concerns about the book. The first is that he is too easy on the intelligence community. Acknowledging that some intelligence failures are inevitable does not mean that intelligence agencies and officials should be given a pass when they screw up. Betts writes so clearly, and he appears to dismiss his critics so casually, that a reader might easily come away from the book believing that what he calls his "charitable view of intelligence" is the last word on the matter among serious students of intelligence. He tells us, in fact, that his view "is widely accepted among the small > corps of scholars who have studied cases of failure, but not among politicians or the public" (27).
While it is true that many prominent scholars do share Betts's charitable view toward intelligence,4 others are much more critical of the American intelligence community and offer prescriptions quite different from that offered by Betts. Such alternative views can be found in the work of two other scholars whose recent books cover much the same ground as Enemies of Intelligence, but which take a very different perspective. Amy B. Zegart focuses on organizational and bureaucratic limitations on intelligence, and her Spying Blind is a harsh critique of the CIA and FBI for failing to adapt to the growing threat of terrorism despite numerous blue-ribbon commissions and studies before 9/11 that warned of the danger.5 Richard L. Russell, on the other hand, in Sharpening Strategic Intelligence, emphasizes the failures of the CIA to produce high quality human intelligence and strategic analysis.6 It is beyond the scope of this essay to examine who might be wrong and who might be right in this debate. But my point is that there is a debate underway among serious students of intelligence over the causes of, and possible remedies for, intelligence failure-a debate Betts only briefly acknowledges.7
My second concern is a broader one, about what I believe Enemies of Intelligence says about the state of intelligence studies and in particular the study of intelligence warning and failure today. I found the book mildly depressing-not simply because intelligence failure cannot be helped, but because it appears that the study of intelligence failure has > n ot come very far in the 30 years since Betts began writing about it. As Betts describes, a rather large literature has developed dating back to the Cold War on the topic of intelligence failure and strategic surprise, so much so that the question of why intelligence fails might be called "overdetermined" (22). What is lacking, however, is a theory of why and when intelligence succeeds. Betts does describe a number of cases in which intelligence agencies have successfully warned of approaching dangers, but these are cited mostly to support his argument that "intelligence often does its job
quite well" (190), and Betts does not attempt to analyze these cases in depth or draw conclusions from them.
I believe it is time to take a new look at the question of intelligence success. Studying success is difficult: As Betts observes, intelligence successes are less well publicized than failures, and it can often be difficult to determine whether a particular incident should count as a success or failure. The U.S. intelligence community does not appear to keep close track of its own successes, and what it does know it does not like to talk about, because revealing successful intelligence operations could provide useful information to our nation's enemies.
But intelligence successes, in the form of failed terrorist plots, are already a part of the national discourse on terrorism. The administration frequently cites failed plots as evidence that the terrorist threat is real and its counterterrorism programs are effective. For example, in his State of the Union address in January 2007, President Bush described several prevented attacks, and said that "Our success in this war is often measured by the things that did not happen."8 As Betts notes, in October 2005 the White House released a list of ten "serious al-Qaeda terrorist plots" that had been disrupted since September 11, 2001, along with five additional efforts by al Qaeda to case targets in the U.S. or infiltrate operatives into the country.9 Administration critics, on the other hand, argue that the cases cited by the government amount to little more than a molehill. And some scholars believe that the absence of successful terrorist attacks since 9/11 indicates there are few terrorists in the United States and the threat of international terrorist attacks against the U.S. is very low.10
Despite the difficulty of studying unsuccessful terrorist attacks, reliable information is available on enough cases to suggest that terrorist plots fail-which means that intelligence and security officials succeed more often than many might realize. Three prominent examples are:
The New York City "Day of Terror" Plot. This plot, which was disrupted soon after the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, is still one of the most important thwarted attacks in American history, but it is little remembered today. A group of Islamist extremists planned to bomb a number of New York City landmarks including the UN Headquarters, the Manhattan Federal Building, and the Lincoln and Holland Tunnels. The FBI had an informant among the plotters, and the men were arrested at a safehouse in Queens while they were mixing fuel and fertilizer in 55-gallon steel drums.
The Lackawanna Six. The case of these Yemeni-Americans, who traveled to Afghanistan in the Spring of 2001 to attend an al Qaeda training camp and met with Osama bin Laden, has been described by many observers as an example of government overkill. Most of the men appear to have turned away from violence after 9/11, and they were not actively plotting any attacks when they were arrested. But the group had clear links to senior al Qaeda leaders, and the case is instructive as an example of how a wide range of intelligence sources can be useful to authorities: the group first came to the attention of the FBI through an anonymous tip, and later information came from intercepted emails and from a detainee captured in Afghanistan.
The Fort Dix Plot. This more recent case typifies the sort of plots seen today and the variety of methods authorities are using to disrupt them. Six men described as Islamic militants were arrested in May 2007 and charged with plotting to attack the Fort Dix Army base in New Jersey and "kill as many soldiers as possible." The men took part in paramilitary training together and conducted surveillance of Fort Dix and other military installations, but authorities were tipped off by a store clerk who became concerned when they brought in a video to be converted to DVD-and on the video they could be seen firing weapons while calling for jihad. The FBI eventually placed two different informants in the group, and watched for 15 months before arresting them when they attempted to buy AK-47 and M-16 machine guns.
Despite Betts's argument that the business of intelligence has not changed fundamentally in recent decades (6), these few examples of thwarted terrorist plots suggest that there may in fact be something new about intelligence failure and success today against the problem of terrorism, compared with the challenges intelligence faced during the Cold War. Especially at the domestic level, intelligence and law enforcement officials appear to be successful in providing tactical warning of terrorist plots. It is this kind of warning that most experts, including Betts, tell us is not to be expected, and without which policy makers are left having to rely on broader, strategic-level warnings that often confuse as much as they enlighten.
More study is needed before we will be able to draw firm conclusions about the future of American intelligence in the war on terrorism. These cases of failed plots do, however, suggest that the study of surprise attack and intelligence failure is at least as relevant today as it was during the Cold War when Professor Betts wrote his early, pioneering work. As Betts argues, intelligence can never be perfect, and some failures are inevitable. We may never be able to get completely past the "tragic view of intelligence failure" so eloquently described here by Betts. But in this age of mass-casualty terrorism, it seems clear that we need to try. The good news is that by studying cases of failed terrorist plots we may be able to learn something new about intelligence success, both to advance intelligence scholarship and (much more importantly) to offer new ideas for policy.
Notes
1 "Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable." World Politics 31:1 (October 1978).
2 9/11 Commission Staff Statement Number 11, "The Performance of the Intelligence Community," 9. Available at
http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/staff_statements/> staff_statement_11.pdf.
3 Glenn Kessler, "File the Bin Laden Phone Leak Under 'Urban Myths,'" The Washington Post, 22 December, 2005. The leak about bin Laden's phone habits has also been described as occurring during public testimony in either the trial of 1993 World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef, or of the 1998 East Africa Embassy bombers, but neither of those scenarios is convincing. See Richard B. Zabel and James J. Benjamin Jr., In Pursuit of Justice: Prosecuting Terrorism Cases in the Federal Courts. Human Rights First White Paper, May 2008, pp. 88-89, at http:/ /
www.humanrightsfirst.org/.
4 See for example, Richards L. Heuer Jr., "Limits of Intelligence Analysis," Orbis 49:1 (Winter 2005), and Robert Jervis, "Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq," The Journal of Strategic Studies 29:1 (February 2006). For a more recent expression of a similar view, see Mark M. Lowenthal, "The Real Intelligence Failure? Spineless
Spies," The Washington Post, 25 May, 2008, available at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/22/ AR2008052202 961.html.
5 Amy B. Zegart, Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007).
6 Richard L. Russell, Sharpening Strategic Intelligence: Why the CIA Gets it Wrong, and What Needs to be Done to Get it Right (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
7 Betts does note Zegart's criticism of the intelligence community for failing to adopt organizational and other reforms, but he argues that reorganizations tend to lead to significant disruption, and often cause new problems even as they fix old ones (144).
8 State of the Union Address, January 23, 2007, transcript as provided by the New York Times, 24 January, 2007.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/23/washington/23bush-transcript.html.
9 The White House, "Fact Sheet: Plots, Casings, and Infiltrations Referenced in President Bush's Remarks on the War on Terror," 6 October, 2005. Available at
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/10/20051006-7.html.
10 See for example, John Mueller, "Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?" Foreign Affairs, September/October 2006, and his Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them (New York: Free Press, 2006).