We are sorry... we were wrong...

mike_cos

Folgore
Verified Military
Joined
Jan 22, 2010
Messages
1,105
Location
Standing in the door
The elections in Egypt will not produce a government of liberal, secular parties as some believed during the tumultuous days of the so-called Arab Spring, but an Islamist-dominated parliament. It is not yet clear what political power the parliament will be delegated by the constitution, but this is only one constraint among the many that the Islamist parties must deal with. They do not have experience in official administration and have many audiences that they must address. To the SCAF, they will try to balance encroaching on the military regime's prerogatives against their political ambitions. To international spectators and liberal, secular elements in Egypt, they will try to portray themselves as inclusive and pragmatic. And to the large segments of society that voted for them -- the urban poor, the professional middle class, and the others who just see them as an uncorrupted alternative to the Mubarak regime and the military -- they will strive to meet the promises laid out in their campaign platforms, as the failure to do so will erode their leverage against the military council and allow their opportunity to take control of the country's affairs to pass unrealized...
This is the conclusion of STRATFOR's Analisys about the end of Arab Spring, Libya probably will be even worse...
 

tigerstr

Verified Military
Joined
Dec 17, 2007
Messages
182
Location
ATHENS
Muslim Brotherhood was the dominant underlying political force in Egypt for ages- although officially outlawed. It’s only natural that they would emerge powerful from any election, Arab Spring or no Arab Spring. And they played their cards right during the whole thing. They were very careful not to scare either the military or foreign powers and to avoid a harsh crack down.

But was there an alternative to these developments? When the cat gets out of the bag it’s difficult to catch.

As the saying goes, a revolution depends on the masses, in order to succeed. Demands are usually about freedom, equality, food etc.

But after the revolution, when there is time to establish a new form of governance, the best organised elements rise to the top. And in most revolutions these elements are extreme political and/or religious parties. Iran is a textbook case.

Keeping all this in mind, I would say that the way things played out in Egypt up to now, was really the best case scenario for the West.

The world is changing, even in third-world areas. There is no avoiding this. And shit will happen.

It always does in pivotal periods of geopolitical and financial change, like this one we are going through.
 
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