.Dissertation on statistical predictors for BRC

[Devildoc]

Through a weird confluence of activities, I found the following dissertation regarding statistical predictors of success in BRC. Warning: there's for-real statistics here.

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/53025/17Mar_Nowicki_Albert.pdf?sequence=1

 

[Marine0311]

Wow
Bookmarked

 

[Ooh-Rah]

Damn, I'll be reading this in far more detail. Interesting find on page 5

27% DOR
17% get cut for Medical
14% get cut for failing Land Nav

So if you don't quit, don't get hurt, and can use a compass, you are about 60% there. Really backs up what @Teufel keeps preaching to those seeking advice about BRC...."Don't Quit".

 

[PCRWizard]

My takeaways: number one predictor of success is physical fitness.

Age isn't a significant predictor of success.

Having deployed in combat is *negatively* associated. (no idea why but this held true through multiple controls)

"having completed at least one semester of college is associated with an
20.5 percent increase in the probability of graduating BRC."

 

[Salt USMC]

Warning: there's for-real statistics here.

 

[Teufel]

Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine.

I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.

I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?

 

[Ooh-Rah]

I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?

Sir,

It made a point of stating that BRPC data was not included:
The scope of this study focuses on BRC and does not examine the data associated with the newly formed Basic Reconnaissance Primer Course (BRPC). (page 3)

I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.

Combat deployments was a factor he had a formula for:
h. Combat Deployments The number of combat deployments is statistically significant, but the sign of the coefficient is negative (𝜕𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏(𝐺𝑅𝐴𝐷=1) 𝜕𝐶𝑂𝑀𝐵𝐴𝑇_𝐷𝐸𝑃 = [-] .0998, P>0.000). I control for age and all other constants, yet a candidate with one more combat deployment is less likely to graduate. I hypothesize combat deployments is negatively correlated with mental health or resiliency, and if resiliency is positively correlated with graduation, the omitted variable bias results in the negative coefficient.

 

[Devildoc]

Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine.

I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.

I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?

Just BRC.

Regarding your combat vet perception, my best friend flunked out of Ranger school on first pass, after having seven or eight combat deployments. Once he got his head on straight and understood the rules of the game he did just fine and passed it on a second attempt.

 

[Teufel]

The bulk of attrition occurs at BRPC.

 

[Marine0311]

Nowicki was an enlisted Force Reconnaissance Marine before he commissioned into the officer ranks. He’s a great Marine.

I believe that a lot of the combat vets convince themselves they are too good for the games they have to play to pass BRC.

I didn’t read the entire report, does it address attrition at BRC and BRPC, or just BRC?

What do you mean?

 

[Teufel]

I don’t think they want to deal with all the bullshit. You’re treated respectfully but it’s tough going back through an entry level course when you’ve been around the block a few times. You have to swallow your pride and get it done. Sometimes that’s easier said than done.

 

[BloodStripe]

Force Recon Officer

Just tying a few threads together.

Has the officer rate attrition rate improved, @Teufel ?

 

[Teufel]

Force Recon Officer

Just tying a few threads together.

Has the officer rate attrition rate improved, @Teufel ?

Not really

 

[Gunz]

I don’t think they want to deal with all the bullshit. You’re treated respectfully but it’s tough going back through an entry level course when you’ve been around the block a few times. You have to swallow your pride and get it done. Sometimes that’s easier said than done.

 

[Poet-Philosopher]

A part of the study that I hope to be further explored is the medical attrition of 17%. More specifically, the injuries warranting the med drop and what can be done to prevent them at the end of each training day. Researching that statistic may help with the high attrition rate. Something tells me those Marines/Corpsmen are not doing ankle stretches/yoga at the end of each TD...

 

[Scubadew]

@Poet-Philosopher

Even though you’re a necromancer and brought back this thread…I can only give what recent data I have. We have a legit candidate that hurt his ankle in RTAP. Command retained him and will reclass him. I don’t even know what I’m adding to this thread other than the command understands candidates will be injured and they are taking the motions to retain and rehab top performers.

@Teufel to this day still probably has better SA than I do.

 

[Teufel]

A part of the study that I hope to be further explored is the medical attrition of 17%. More specifically, the injuries warranting the med drop and what can be done to prevent them at the end of each training day. Researching that statistic may help with the high attrition rate. Something tells me those Marines/Corpsmen are not doing ankle stretches/yoga at the end of each TD...

Some injuries are preventable, others are unavoidable. They try to teach candidates to prevent injury through stretching and warming up but there is only so much you can do when it comes to ruck running. The gopher holes in Camp Pendleton have claimed many casualties, especially when you are wearing a ruck. In my opinion though, some medical drops are just excuses for quitting. I wouldn't be surprised if most of those drops are driven by the student and not the staff. I suffered a gopher hole induced avulsion fracture in my ankle during the third week of the course and they let me continue on the course until I graduated.