Iran discussion

[Gunz]

Iran's got cash flow now that the nuke deal's been signed and sanctions have been eased. But UN Resolution 2231 stipulates that Iran has to have approval from the Security Council before embarking on any shopping sprees for arms. That gives the US veto power (provided the prospective deal is overt) but how effective it might be remains to be seen.

In terms of the Nixon initiative, I don't see a comparison with regard to the prospective "fertility of the objective," that is how open is Iran to US influence vice China's position some 40 odd years ago. The Russians and Chinese are very much involved in Iran and a chance to "open it up" may rest with somebody else.

And sorry @CQB for misunderstanding your question above.

 

[CQB]

All good, no problem. I guess my question has been answered.

 

[CQB]

ETA: so Turkey & Russia are smoozing & with Russia making overtures to Iran, there looks to be the realisation of a long held principle of Russian expansion; a warm water port. (Pick one near the Persian Gulf). The reach to Pakistan was IMO too hard to complete, and frustrated by Zia al Huq, though this time around there may be success. Looks like they're there for the long haul.

 

[Red Flag 1]

ETA: so Turkey & Russia are smoozing & with Russia making overtures to Iran, there looks to be the realisation of a long held principle of Russian expansion; a warm water port. (Pick one near the Persian Gulf). The reach to Pakistan was IMO too hard to complete, and frustrated by Zia al Huq, though this time around there may be success. Looks like they're there for the long haul.

It is beginning to feel like the old Soviet Stalin, and post Stalin thinking that was the Cold War. Their military is building, and Putin has an eye to expanding turf. He does not see the current POTUS as a threat, and pretty much behaves as if obama is a non person. An alliance with the Turks seems like a win-win, so why not. There is nothing in Europe to challenge Putin, and there is the vacuum left after the UK pull out.

Do we still have access to Russian Nukes, in keeping with reduction in Nuke stores?

My $.02.

 

[Salt USMC]

Speaking of Russian cooperation with Iran...

Iran acknowledges Russia using its air base to strike Syria

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A prominent Iranian lawmaker confirmed Wednesday that Russia is using an Iranian air base for airstrikes in Syria, as Moscow said another wave of airstrikes launched from the Islamic Republic struck the east of the war-ravaged country.

The comments by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, are the first official acknowledgment that Russian planes are flying out of Iran's Shahid Nojeh Air Base.

Meanwhile, Russia's foreign minister rejected allegations that its use of Iranian military bases for airstrikes in Syria violates United Nations sanctions on Iran.


Russia on Tuesday first announced that it had launched the strikes from near the Iranian city of Hamedan and struck targets in three provinces in northern and eastern Syria. The Defense Ministry on Wednesday announced a new wave of airstrikes out of Iran, saying its jets took off earlier in the day from a base southwest of the Iranian capital, Tehran, to strike targets in the east of Syria.

I'm sure that this comes as no surprise to people in the defense community. After all, ATC radar would have undoubtedly picked these guys up over Iraqi airspace. Still, it's more than a little disquieting to see this kind of cooperation between Russia and Iran. To be fair, it's not exactly like Russia has an established military base inside of Iran (and I sincerely doubt that anti-colonial Iran would even consider allowing that), but allowing Russian use of their air bases shows that Rouhani is pretty good buds with Putin.

I'm curious to see if this military cooperation will end if or when Syria stabilizes. Russia seems like it's trying to maintain operations in Syria without expanding its footprint in the region, which seems like it could only be accomplished by establishing a permanent presence in Syria (such as we did in OIF) or doing flights out of Iran. That may change in the near future if Turkey jumps over to the Russian side.

EDIT: Interestingly, American Enterprise Institute seems to have spotted Russian aircraft at the Shahid Nojeh base back in November The Russo-Iranian Military Coalition in Syria may be Deepening | Critical Threats

 

[Gunz]

Iran's got a hodge-podge of aging aircraft from various countries and it wants very badly to keep up a capable force. The inventory scale is decidedly weighted in Russia's favor. Iran has Su-24s, Mig 29s, Mi-17s from Russia; J-10's, Y-12's and Chengdu F-7s from China. (They also have a bunch of old F4s, but they won't get shit from us.) So they need Russia for new parts and planes and I suspect the use of Iranian air bases by Russian aircraft is closely tied to this deal.

 

[Brill]

Yeah, it's definitely (I hate myself for using this phrase) "bad optics"

I think you mean a direct lie to the American people. No biggie; we ain't seen nothing yet. Seriously though, I just wish our government would give us some credit.

DOS has admitted payment was on condition of release of the captive USPs.

State Department Spox Confirms U.S. Sent Money To Iran After Hostages Were Released

Full Definition of ransom

1. 1: a consideration paid or demanded for the release of someone or something from captivity
   
   Definition of RANSOM

 

[Florida173]

(a)
Whoever transmits in interstate or foreign commerce any communication containing any demand or request for a ransom or reward for the release of any kidnapped person, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.

18 U.S. Code § 875 - Interstate communications

(a)
Whoever receives, possesses, or disposes of any money or other property, or any portion thereof, which has at any time been delivered as ransom or reward in connection with a violation of section 1201 of this title, knowing the same to be money or property which has been at any time delivered as such ransom or reward, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both

18 U.S. Code § 1202 - Ransom money

 

[Brill]

18 U.S. Code § 875 - Interstate communications


18 U.S. Code § 1202 - Ransom money

That's only for serfs.

 

[DA SWO]

I think you mean a direct lie to the American people. No biggie; we ain't seen nothing yet. Seriously though, I just wish our government would give us some credit.

DOS has admitted payment was on condition of release of the captive USPs.

State Department Spox Confirms U.S. Sent Money To Iran After Hostages Were Released

Full Definition of ransom

1. 1: a consideration paid or demanded for the release of someone or something from captivity
   
   Definition of RANSOM

Iran-Contra all over again.

 

[Brill]

Iran-Contra all over again.

No, that was those evil Republicans enriching their rich partners in the weapons industry while bypassing Congress.

This is an instance of peace loving people returning our patriots by simply returning Iran's rightful money to the owner (I wonder what legal right a country has to previous treaties, property, monies, etc when it's government is overthrown via revolution).

 

[Brill]

I thought the US policy was to buy our friendship with Iran.

If Hollywood made an Iranian anti-US revenge fantasy
If Hollywood made an Iranian anti-US revenge fantasy - BBC News

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Our issues with Iran run pretty deep, but what's going to force us into WW3 is the currency issue. More specifically, the USD remaining the world reserve currency and even more to the point, keep countries selling and buying oil in USD's.

Iran Says No Thanks To Dollars; Demands Euro Payment For Oil Sales | Zero Hedge

Do you know why we invaded Iraq and took out Saddam? He stated in 2000, that he would no longer take USD as payment and Eruo.Guess what we did as soon as we took over the country? Started selling Iraqi oil in USD again.

Foreign Exchange: Saddam Turns His Back on Greenbacks

Libya, and getting rid of Gaddafi? Gaddafi wanted an African gold backed currency to compete with the USD & ERUO.

Hillary Emails Reveal True Motive for Libya Intervention | Foreign Policy Journal

WTF is going on with Syria? It's called the Iran-Iraq-Syria oil pipeline. With all Obama's red lines and shit.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-secret-stupid-saudi-us-deal-on-syria/5410130

Remember Venezuela being and the Axis of Evil list?

Chavez Launches War Against US Dollar | The Daily Bell

Shit heating up with Russia, looking like some shit could go down? Putin always claiming that he needs to protect Russians economic intrest.

De-Dollarization Accelerates As Russia Nears Launch Of Ruble-Priced Oil Trading Platform | Zero Hedge

China? Yeah they actually want to be the next world reserve currency...

China Is Laying The Foundation For The Next World Gold Standard System

Russia and China? Yeah they have an alliance now.

Goodbye Petrodollar: Russia Accepts Yuan, Is Now China's Biggest Oil Partner

Bottom line, we all need to get our financial situation straight and hope and pray we kick the shit out of Russia, China, and Iran without going all nuclear...

 

[AWP]

I think one aspect to our foreign policy which lags behind the rest of the world is the long game. We're left with being reactionary while other nations can afford to plan and wait. It gives them the initiative.

 

[Brill]

I think one aspect to our foreign policy which lags behind the rest of the world is the long game. We're left with being reactionary while other nations can afford to plan and wait. It gives them the initiative.

A clear indication of an absence of strategy (IS, Iran, Russia, China). At least our front 9 game is improving.

 

[Etype]

I think one aspect to our foreign policy which lags behind the rest of the world is the long game. We're left with being reactionary while other nations can afford to plan and wait. It gives them the initiative.

Iran has been working to master their long game since '79. IRGC agents leave Iran for extended periods of time, maybe indefinitely- plotting, waiting, calculating.

Iran is also smart when it comes to Islamic in-fighting, they are staunchly against it- unless they think the other side is working towards a Western end. This is why they are working to prop up Assad, they think the high profile activity of Nusra and ISIS only brings unwanted US attention.

They fancy themselves as masters at operating just below the threshold of violence- which is key for the long game.

 

[Gunz]

I think one aspect to our foreign policy which lags behind the rest of the world is the long game. We're left with being reactionary while other nations can afford to plan and wait. It gives them the initiative.

I don't give the last three presidential administrations and their respective Secretaries of State a whole lot of credit as shrewd chess players in the great game. While our adversaries are thinking four and five moves ahead, we're trying to pin the tail on the donkey.

 

[Etype]

I don't give the last three presidential administrations and their respective Secretaries of State a whole lot of credit as shrewd chess players in the great game. While our adversaries are thinking four and five moves ahead, we're trying to pin the tail on the donkey.

With a presidential term being 4 years, max time in office 8- the theme is usually to change as much as you can in that amount of time in case the other party takes power.

The ayatollahs plan on staying in power indefinitely.

 

[Red Flag 1]

I think one aspect to our foreign policy which lags behind the rest of the world is the long game. We're left with being reactionary while other nations can afford to plan and wait. It gives them the initiative.

That is one of the pitfalls of managers, leading the military-V- Leaders, leading the military. Managers like to live in quiet, smooth, and calm waters. Leaders use the waters as a tool.

 

[Etype]

All this talk like these guys are geniuses. The SECSTATES have to focus on a bout a 100 other fucking huge things besides Iran and whatever the fuck their "game" is. We are involved in everybody's shit. Right or wrong.

True, but if I were secretary of state (crazy, I know), Iran would be on the short list (top 5) of concerns.