Iran nuke deal signed? Or, what Iran deal, oil prices drop in time for summer road trip!

[Il Duce]

Thought this was an excellent summary of a number of lines of reasoning, as well as a thoughtful position - though it differs from my own in some areas:

Why I'm torn about the Iran deal: Was it worth it?

 

[DA SWO]

It's easy to complain about the deal and a whole lot harder to have a different plan.

Does anyone believe Russia and China was going to voluntarily not sell Iran military technology if no deal was reach? Does anyone believe Russia wasn't going to help Iran build nuclear reactors if no deal was in place? The deal did get a 5 year moratorium on conventional weapon sales to Iran and 8 years on ballistic missile technology.
How the Pentagon got its way in Iran deal

Does anyone believe that Iran was going to voluntarily stop it's nuclear pursuit if no deal was reached?

People will argue we could have gotten a better deal. How did that strategy work out with North Korea?

Nobody has offered a different path that doesn't lead to Iran getting a nuclear weapon at the end of the day. That is the big fail over this whole issue.

You miss the point regarding the North Korea deal.
It was a good deal, except the North Koreans never honored their part, and Clinton waffled over forcing them to honor the deal.
Which is why this deal stinks, another weak President who will look the other way as Iran instantly ignores the deal they signed.
Unfettered access is a joke when you consider the 24 DAY notification requirement.

 

[Scotth]

What was wrong with the current plan: economic sanctions and isolation?

Your last sentence is, in my opinion naive as there was no clear and present NEED for a different plan, save Obama's legacy. With or without the deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran WILL become a nuclear power in the future, that is a shared reality. This agreement simply unfreezes the $100 billion in assets and allows Iran to begin selling their oil on the world market...and that flow will dramatically increase upon upgrading their oil extraction/transportation infrastructure.

The Iranian proxy forces just went on a shopping spree and unfortunately we will be on the receiving end of their new toys....AGAIN. 5-year moratorium on weapons purchases??? Really??? Where the hell did they get these in 2013 or these in 2015?

Obama arrogantly believes he can negotiate and reason with Iran because he has economic leverage. Why not wait to gain MORE leverage and tip the scales to our advantage? Oh, let's piss off all of our allies in the region at the same time. Brilliant statesmanship.

My last statement isn't naive. No deal means the international sanctions go away. The Russian and Chinese went along with the understanding that a deal would be reached and some normalcy would eventually take place and they could conduct business with Iran. Chinese want there oil and Russia has been dealing with Iran for a long time now. European's wanted Iran's oil as well.

Russia actually had military hardware sales pending that they with held off on and now there is a 5 year moratorium on military hardware sales to Iran and 8 years for ballistic weapons. That was a pretty big achievement to get the Russian's to agree to that. No I'm not talking about sending AK's to Hezabollah we are talking Air Defense missiles.
Russia-Iran Weapons Sale a Deal of Mutual Opportunity

Sure the US could have kept our sanctions in place but how affective was that going to be really when we don't do business with Iran in the first place and the Chinese are buying Iran's oil and Russia is selling them military hardware. Add into that equation with the Chinese build their own financial market Iran could easily circumvent the American banking system. So our ability to go it alone on economic sanctions are getting cut dramatically in the future as the Chinese try to become important world players.

Bush argued that very same idea of increased economic sanctions to force a better deal from North Korea and that didn't work out well at all. Bush was also doing that unilaterally and Obama had to work with 5 other nations and Iran. It probably makes the deal a little weaker overall but if you have China and Russia in on the deal the chance of cheating go down substantially as well. You can wait longer and then what? Israel was never going to like any deal with Iran outside invading them. Eventually, Iran would have said screw it, just like North Korea did, an gone nuclear.

 

[Brill]

Thought this was an excellent summary of a number of lines of reasoning, as well as a thoughtful position - though it differs from my own in some areas:

Why I'm torn about the Iran deal: Was it worth it?

Very good post!

 

[Brill]

Russia actually had military hardware sales pending that they with held off on and now there is a 5 year moratorium on military hardware sales to Iran and 8 years for ballistic weapons. That was a pretty big achievement to get the Russian's to agree to that. No I'm not talking about sending AK's to Hezabollah we are talking Air Defense missiles.
Russia-Iran Weapons Sale a Deal of Mutual Opportunity

I fully agree that Iran will go nuclear...as will Saudi Arabia.

The SA-10 deal signed with Rostec Corp back in 2007 but put on hold in 2010 because of...UN resolution 1929. Hell, even Iran filed a $4 billion lawsuit in international court for breach of contract. So in Feb, Rostec's CEO (a former KGB buddy of Pootie Poo), offered Iran the Antey-2500 (an even more modern version of the SAM system offered in 2010) if they withdraw the lawsuit. Worth noting that Medvedev place a ban on missile sales to Iran but Pootie lifted that ban in April.

Russian arms sales have ZERO to do with money and are all about foreign policy in the form of power projection (like pissing off adversaries via a friendly government). The US is talking about providing weapons to Ukraine so what will Russia do? Any bets whether there will be a Russian military base in Iran before the 5 years is up?

This nuclear deal really just solidified the Russian, Iranian, and Chinese alliance in the Near East and has nothing to do with business. Obama is focused on his library and legacy whereas our enemies are looking at more strategic targets (e.g. backing this deal, OPM database, etc).

Mr Chow, a possible Chinese "illegal", said it best when he jumped out of the trunk of the Mercedes in Vegas.

 

[Scotth]

I fully agree that Iran will go nuclear...as will Saudi Arabia.

The SA-10 deal signed with Rostec Corp back in 2007 but put on hold in 2010 because of...UN resolution 1929. Hell, even Iran filed a $4 billion lawsuit in international court for breach of contract. So in Feb, Rostec's CEO (a former KGB buddy of Pootie Poo), offered Iran the Antey-2500 (an even more modern version of the SAM system offered in 2010) if they withdraw the lawsuit. Worth noting that Medvedev place a ban on missile sales to Iran but Pootie lifted that ban in April.

Russian arms sales have ZERO to do with money and are all about foreign policy in the form of power projection (like pissing off adversaries via a friendly government). The US is talking about providing weapons to Ukraine so what will Russia do? Any bets whether there will be a Russian military base in Iran before the 5 years is up?

This nuclear deal really just solidified the Russian, Iranian, and Chinese alliance in the Near East and has nothing to do with business. Obama is focused on his library and legacy whereas our enemies are looking at more strategic targets (e.g. backing this deal, OPM database, etc).

Mr Chow, a possible Chinese "illegal", said it best when he jumped out of the trunk of the Mercedes in Vegas.

Again with no deal what will happen with the Iran/Russia and Iran/Chinese relationship?

There will be no rules so you can complain all day long about this deal but what other solutions does anyone offer because the status quo goes away if the deal goes away? Complaining is the easy part, solution are a lot harder.

 

[Brill]

It's a sad day when a disadvantagous deal is better than no deal. At least Congress will be part of the debate...oh wait, the deal will go before the UNSC well before the Sept US deadline so POTUS made Congressional approval completely irrelavant.

I just don't understand the logic.

 

[Rapid]

Heh...

Iran nuclear: Ayatollah Khamenei chastises 'arrogant' US - BBC News

"Iran's stance towards the "arrogant" US will not change despite the nuclear deal reached earlier this week, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said. In a speech marking the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, he said Iran still had sharp differences with the US, above all over the Middle East. Iran would continue to back Syria, Iraq, the Palestinians and "oppressed people" in Yemen and Bahrain, he said."

"'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel' slogans were chanted during Friday prayers at the Tehran University campus in spite of the nuclear deal agreed earlier this week"

 

[poison]

Again with no deal what will happen with the Iran/Russia and Iran/Chinese relationship?

There will be no rules so you can complain all day long about this deal but what other solutions does anyone offer because the status quo goes away if the deal goes away? Complaining is the easy part, solution are a lot harder.

The negotiations should have been tied to Iranian behavior, not in a vacuum, as if their terror-supporting and American-killing ways did not exist. If Iran were a peaceful country, no one would give a damn about their desire for nuke power; but they are a problem, and that's why it's such a big issue.

You want sanctions to go away, and a nuke program? OK, stop supporting Hizbullah, the Houthis, and whtever other fucked up organizations you foster, acknowledge Israel's right to exist, stop with the regional hegemony bullshit, and maybe, over the next 5 years, we will lessen or drop sanctions. THEN we can come to the table, and negotiate nukes.

 

[Scotth]

The negotiations should have been tied to Iranian behavior, not in a vacuum, as if their terror-supporting and American-killing ways did not exist. If Iran were a peaceful country, no one would give a damn about their desire for nuke power; but they are a problem, and that's why it's such a big issue.

You want sanctions to go away, and a nuke program? OK, stop supporting Hizbullah, the Houthis, and whtever other fucked up organizations you foster, acknowledge Israel's right to exist, stop with the regional hegemony bullshit, and maybe, over the next 5 years, we will lessen or drop sanctions. THEN we can come to the table, and negotiate nukes.

That's all well a good. The only downfall is the international sanctions go away. Russia and China say we are done with this process and walk away meaning the UN as well. Iran sells it's oil to China unabated and uses the Chinese financial market to get paid and avoid our sanctions. They take their new found cash and buy military arms and new nuclear reactors from Russia. Even the Europeans will buy Iran's oil so they don't have to depend on Russian oil as much.

How bad do you think US sanction alone will hurt them now and how willing do you think they will be to change their ways and negotiate then?

You pick the fights you can win. It doesn't mean you ignore the others things in the future.

 

[DA SWO]

That's all well a good. The only downfall is the international sanctions go away. Russia and China say we are done with this process and walk away meaning the UN as well. Iran sells it's oil to China unabated and uses the Chinese financial market to get paid and avoid our sanctions. They take their new found cash and buy military arms and new nuclear reactors from Russia. Even the Europeans will buy Iran's oil so they don't have to depend on Russian oil as much.

How bad do you think US sanction alone will hurt them now and how willing do you think they will be to change their ways and negotiate then?

You pick the fights you can win. It doesn't mean you ignore the others things in the future.

China's economy is getting ready to sink.
Their stock market hasn't crashed because the government is forcing investors to stay in.
They can buy Iranian oil all day long with little impact here.
The Chinese want Alaskan oil, cheaper to ship. They can now trade Alaskan crude for Iranian crude and ship the Iranian crap here.

 

[poison]

China's economy is getting ready to sink.
Their stock market hasn't crashed because the government is forcing investors to stay in.
They can buy Iranian oil all day long with little impact here.
The Chinese want Alaskan oil, cheaper to ship. They can now trade Alaskan crude for Iranian crude and ship the Iranian crap here.

Sure, it's too late now. But negotiations have been going on for years now, they've strung everyone along, built secret facilities, etc. If the negotiations had started years ago by addressing behavior, we might be in a different place today.

 

[policemedic]

Sure, it's too late now. But negotiations have been going on for years now, they've strung everyone along, built secret facilities, etc. If the negotiations had started years ago by addressing behavior, we might be in a different place today.

Shame the Israelis didn't bury their nuke project under a hundred tonnes of rubble.

 

[Il Duce]

Thought this was also a well-reasoned argument in favor of the Iran deal, though I think the rational argument for Iran's pursuit of nuclear capability is incorrectly dismissed as the province of 'ideologues' alone.

For the Iran Deal, Against the Conservation of Enemies

 

[amorris127289]

This is Allen West speech from time square, I do not know if it has been posted, I searched and found no one posted it. I think it is awesome, not sure if this is the right place to post it, but he does mention the Iran deal a few times.

 

[AWP]

I wish Allen West would go away.

 

[poison]

Assad did not give up entire chemical weapons arsenal — report

Last month, the world’s chemical weapons watchdog said all effluents from Syria’s neutralized chemical weapons arsenal have been destroyed. Of the 1,300 metric tons of Syria’s declared chemical weapons only 16 metric tons of hydrogen fluoride remain to be destroyed at a facility in Port Arthur in Texas, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The international operation to rid Syria of its chemical weapons was welcomed by the US as a success, even as various reports emerged in May of additional chemical attacks in Syria and the discovery of undeclared chemical weapons.

The Wall Street Journal account said international inspectors in 2013 only entered sites declared by Syria as chemical weapons labs, and fearing Damascus would end its cooperation — and fearing for their personal safety — were reluctant to press their hosts for more information and to demand access to other suspicious facilities.

“Because the regime was responsible for providing security, it had an effective veto over inspectors’ movements. The team decided it couldn’t afford to antagonize its hosts, explains one of the inspectors, or it ‘would lose all access to all sites.’ And the inspectors decided they couldn’t visit some sites in contested areas, fearing rebels would attack them,” the report said.

“Under the terms of their deployment, the inspectors had access only to sites that the Assad regime had declared were part of its chemical-weapons program. The US and other powers had the right to demand access to undeclared sites if they had evidence they were part of the chemical-weapons program. But that right was never exercised, in part, inspectors and Western officials say, because their governments didn’t want a standoff with the regime,” continued the report.

lol!

IT'S A SUCCESS! shhhhhhhhh

Who's in for round two of 'success'?

 

[Brill]

It's amazing how this administration has the ability to determine how dangerous the world would be had some of the chem weps not been surrendered.

 

[Totentanz]

Assad did not give up entire chemical weapons arsenal — report

 

[Scotth]

Assad did not give up entire chemical weapons arsenal — report
lol!

IT'S A SUCCESS! shhhhhhhhh

Who's in for round two of 'success'?

The Times of Israel is a source? They write three piece and cite a series of anonymous reports and quotes and cite nothing to support their story. Then they come up with some great logical arguments like inspectors couldn't go where they wanted of course they can't name any names for that claim. Then they come up with this gem of a quote,

"According to a Reuters report citing diplomatic sources, samples taken from the site by inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition and Chemical Weapons (OPCW) tested positive for traces of sarin gas and VX (nerve agent).

“This is a pretty strong indication they have been lying about what they did with sarin,” a diplomatic source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “They have so far been unable to give a satisfactory explanation about this finding.”

They make the case they couldn't inspect what they wanted to but some how they inspected an undeclared cite with traces of Sarin and VX in it. Not even the actual agents just the precursors for the agents according to Reuters. So obviously they have to be lying because the inspectors that found the traces obviously didn't pursue the issue any further and didn't ask where the munitions went or looked around further for them according to unnamed sources and with no reports to back up that claim.

I remember being sold a similar bill of goods not so long ago. At the end of the day 1290 metric tons of less chemical weapons in the world is a win.

Most interesting about all of this is funny how these reports about things that happened in 2013 are just getting publish as an Iran deal is coming together.