Iraq and ISIS Discussion

[Diamondback 2/2]

Disagree
I think Shinseki knew what he was talking about when he gave post hostilities troop requirements, and no one wanted to hear those figures/costs.

Shineki was run out and didn't plan or execute OIF. But I agree he would have probably done a better job than Rumsfeld and Franks. I think the evasion allthrough an impressive operation. Completely failed to understand the culture and tribalism of Iraq. We bypassed alot of Iraqi units and equipment to take Baghdad. Alot of weapons found there way into tribal militias. This coupled with a period of open borders and lack of civil rule, allowed these tribes to develop ruler influence and gave incentive to fight the "American Puppet" Iraqi government that we tried to emplace. As we tried to back our chosen civil governments, we spit in the eyes of the Iraqi tribes and pushed ourselves into the middle of a civil war between the tribes and a insurgency influenced by Iran.

But I digress.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Disagree
I think Shinseki knew what he was talking about when he gave post hostilities troop requirements, and no one wanted to hear those figures/costs.

It could even be said that his post-war occupation estimates were even conservative. With the amount of infrastructure we removed from operation; De-Baathification and the full disbanding of the Iraqi Security Force apparatus regardless of ethnic group, and political affiliation, made the task impossible without the political will to be stuck there for 50 years. 14 years in, 36 more to go.

 

[Topkick]

I am not sure Shinseki knew anything except that 10,ooo troops wasn't enough. The guy that took the black beret from the rangers only knew that we needed more than 10,000 troops. I am not convinced that only a General could make that recommendation???

 

[AWP]

I am not sure Shinseki knew anything except that 10,ooo troops wasn't enough. The guy that took the black beret from the rangers only knew that we needed more than 10,000 troops. I am not convinced that only a General could make that recommendation???

I think you're off a bit here. The US sent 130k, Shinseki stated we'd need "several hundred thousand" troops which was in line with many CENTCOM estimates. Rummy steamrolled Franks and Co. at CENTCOM for that 130k; Rumsfeld wanted fewer troops.

Maybe it is a case of a broken clock/ twice a day and all, but Shinseki was right on that one point. I vaguely recall the book Cobra II stating CENTCOM war gamed estimates were in the neighborhood of 300k+ troops required for after the invasion.

https://www.amazon.com/Cobra-II-Inside-Invasion-Occupation/dp/1400075394

 

[Marauder06]

I am not sure Shinseki knew anything except that 10,ooo troops wasn't enough. ...

He sure "knew" the Army needed those damn black berets. And we haven't forgiven him for it since.

 

[Topkick]

And I hated wearing a beret instead of a PC while in garrison.

 

[Topkick]

I am reading the book Fiasco right now. It talks about Shinseki predicting there would be an influx of fighters from surrounding countries and that the next phase would be the toughest fight. He requested 260k but was ignored. AWP was right. We kicked it off with about 150k total. Apparently Shinseki was using his nugget on this one.

 

[ThunderHorse]

I am reading the book Fiasco right now. It talks about Shinseki predicting there would be an influx of fighters from surrounding countries and that the next phase would be the toughest fight. He requested 260k but was ignored. AWP was right. We kicked it off with about 150k total. Apparently Shinseki was using his nugget on this one.

Crazy amount of stuff going down in that book.

 

[Gunz]

Ref. the "pigs kill ISIS fighters" story, I'm calling bullshit.

I know it was in a credible source, but the story is utter garbage. Look, I spent a lot of time in backwoods Georgia and I know wild boars are aggressive, territorial, and can in rare cases kill people. Just usually not groups of people. And definitely not groups of people armed with AK-47s.

We're to believe that a group of ISIS fighters numbering at least 8 (and probably considerably more) were setting up for an attack (which, by definition, means they were armed), and not only didn't hear a group of wild pigs coming, but the pigs were so ninja-like that they got the drop on a large group of armed men and KILLED THREE OF THEM AND WOUNDED FIVE OTHERS? It reminds me of the Pesh propaganda: "Our female fighters have killed dozens--no HUNDREDS--of ISIS fighters!!!! OMG!!!" Wow, if that's the case then maybe you should just let your women do all the fighting, and the war would be over in weeks.

Same thing with the pigs. How did this (anti-ISIS) sheikh even know the thing with the pigs happened? Did the pigs come back to the village like "Bro, you're never going to guess what we did to a group of ISIS fucks that was setting up to take down your village!"

I'd find it more realistic if the sheikh said "We killed three ISIS fighters and fed them to the wild pigs." Or "We captured a bunch of wounded ISIS dudes and we let the pigs finish them off." That would at least have been credible. This story isn't.

You're right, sir, it's fantasy. I've been hunting wild hogs for 20 years. I'd believe--maybe--that a big boar could maul one guy before mags were emptied on him. And once the shooting starts, any hog that isn't dead is running for the next county.

 

[Gunz]

I think you're off a bit here. The US sent 130k, Shinseki stated we'd need "several hundred thousand" troops which was in line with many CENTCOM estimates. Rummy steamrolled Franks and Co. at CENTCOM for that 130k; Rumsfeld wanted fewer troops.

Maybe it is a case of a broken clock/ twice a day and all, but Shinseki was right on that one point. I vaguely recall the book Cobra II stating CENTCOM war gamed estimates were in the neighborhood of 300k+ troops required for after the invasion.

Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq: Michael R. Gordon, Bernard E. Trainor: 9781400075393: Amazon.com: Books

Absolutely. Rummy was so infatuated with the exploits of the Special Forces/Northern Alliance/Terminal Guidance/horse-soldier stuff in Afghanistan in '02 that he thought less rather than more would work in Iraq, too...failing to consider the enormous differences in cultures, infrastructure, population, terrain, politics, weapons. It illustrates Rumsfeld's ignorance and it cost lives.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

260k troops, 500 troops even wouldn't have stopped the mess that took place.

Our fuck ups:

1) disbanding Iraqi government, to include public services, military and civil athourity.

2) not securing the borders. You had every freaking jihadi from the region poring into Iraq to fight the Americans in late 03 to about 06. Hell my platoon snatched an Afghan at a local bazaar trying to buy semtex and det cord. Local reported him. We should have had the Syrian and Iranian border locked down asap. We didn't.

3) centralized ruling government vs regional governments (Kurdish region did okay, but different government, and if not for their control of oil, they would have been fucked). Again the tribal bullshit.

4) promising the Iraqi people rainbows and unicorns. Yeah we'll get the power and water back on, yes we will stop the kiddnapings, blood right killing, robbing and looting.

5) not taking out the Iranian government. If we had kept the Iraqi government in place with a contengent of coalition forces and immediately pushed east into Iran, it would be a different world today.

6) allowing shit head psycho's to guard prisoners with cameras. Yes abu grabe didn't help the whole "were the Americans here to liberate you from the your oppressors" image.

7) bouncing out before the Iraqi forces had been properly established and regional governments had been emplamented. We had a short period in time with the sons of Iraq to turn the tide and make that mission a true success. We fucked up big on that one.

Anyway I can go on and on. What we did was manuever warfared our asses to Baghdad and applied a Bosnia/KFOR style police action and that shit blew the fuck up in our faces. Then we were behind the 8 ball trying new shit, some worked and some didn't.

$.02

 

[ThunderHorse]

5) not taking out the Iranian government. If we had kept the Iraqi government in place with a contengent of coalition forces and immediately pushed east into Iran, it would be a different world today.

That's a whole lot of hell no.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

That's a whole lot of hell no.

How do you figure? You think the countless Joe's who were mutilated and killed by Iranian made EFP's was something to be over looked? Or the Iranian infultrater Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army (militia) or the political and psychological controls they placed on Iraqis and disruption of our own strategy was something to be over looked? You think Iran having political and economical influence over a war torn Iraq is a good thing? You believe Iran's threat to our partnerships in the middle east and there vowing promise to destroy Israel, is a good thing for the region? Won't even get into the terrorism sponsoring they have been doing for the last 35 years.

Nah dude, we should smoked that government while we had the momentum and the semi backing of the world/coalition governments. It ain't going to happen now, until they directly attack the United States or one of our allies. Something we should have never waited for IMHO.

 

[Totentanz]

taking out the Iranian government.

I agree with most of what you wrote but this has some severe negative consequences the last time we actually did it and would be a bad idea today.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I agree with most of what you wrote but this has some severe negative consequences the last time we actually did it and would be a bad idea today.

Obviously it isn't going to happen today, but in 2003, it would have been the perfect time. We would have faced some backlash from Russia, but at the time Putin didn't have the political pull or military reforms to really do anything about it. And they were still dealing with Chechen jihadi's themselves.

But yeah it's not happening now. I was mainly pointing out what we should have done back in 03 vs what we did.

 

[Topkick]

Yes, Iran aided/ aids greatly to the insurgency And as much as I agree that the Iranian government needed to be taken down, that could've made things much worse. Another country in turmoil and without a government could have created even more insurgents. They would have access to more sophisticated weapons and even WMDs. Who knows, it was and still is a mess.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Yes, Iran aided/ aids greatly to the insurgency And as much as I agree that the Iranian government needed to be taken down, that could've made things much worse. Another country in turmoil and without a government could have created even more insurgents. They would have access to more sophisticated weapons and even WMDs. Who knows, it was and still is a mess.

Possibly so, there is a large undergrowth of Iranians who do not care for their government rule. How large respectively to those who are for it I have no idea. But the Arab spring 2011-12 was a pretty good indication. Another chance our government had a chance to really influence change, instead we bombed Libya.

 

[Topkick]

Possibly so, there is a large undergrowth of Iranians who do not care for their government rule. How large respectively to those who are for it I have no idea. But the Arab spring 2011-12 was a pretty good indication. Another chance our government had to really influence change, instead we bombed Libia.

You make good points here, but we thought that we would be welcomed as liberators in Iraq after we took out that POS Saddam and we were wrong. Yes, you would think these people would want to be free but as we both know, those dudes don't think like we do!

 

[Totentanz]

Possibly so, there is a large undergrowth of Iranians who do not care for their government rule. How large respectively to those who are for it I have no idea. But the Arab spring 2011-12 was a pretty good indication. Another chance our government had to really influence change, instead we bombed Libia.

The biggest thing that would undermine disaffection toward their government and galvanize them against the west is any perception (real or imagined) that they're being externally influenced. They don't like their own government making up their minds for them (see also the 2009 election of Ahmedinejad), and they REALLY don't like outsiders doing it.

Change would be great, but it's a place to tread extremely lightly.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

14 years later, not much has changed. I'm not saying Bush had it right, obviously some of his department heads were fucked up, Rummy being a good example. But shit didn't get better under Obama and honestly got alot worse...