This is a piece I wrote about 4 months ago.. Might be relevant or it might not..
Syria’s Conundrum: Has the West Backed the Wrong Horse?
After nearly three years of fighting and many thousands of innocent civilians dead and nearly two million displaced in the country all the fighting sides finally came to Geneva to try and hammer out a peace deal. This is the first time that all the warring factions have come together in one room to negotiate a peace plan with the UN and the General Secretary, Ban ki moon.
Currently Syria’s warring factions comprise of state army defectors and civilians namely the free Syrian army. Fighting alongside them are various fundamentalists’ Islamic groups, who originate from outside of Syria such as the Al-Qaeda-backed al-Nusra Front and Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Al Islami. These groups that vehemently oppose Western ideals and culture have declared a post-Assad Syria will be a sharia state whilst the other, the Western government backed National Coalition and its transitional government led by Ahmad Tumeh is made up of the FSA who desire a Western influenced democratic model.
The two main factions fighting on the opposition side have now turned their attention to the Free Syrian Army in a bid to ensure the moderate pro-west FSA will not gain the upper hand and achieve any status in a new post Assad Syria. While this possible outcome is extremely bad for Syria, it could have dire repercussions for the international community should the fundamentalists gain the upper hand and win the current civil war.
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has called for the various groups to stop the infighting and come together under one banner of the Islamic flag. Both Al-Qaeda-backed al-Nusra Front and Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Al Islami have stepped up their attacks on the moderate FSA which has resulted in over 1,000 deaths in this year alone.
The chemical attacks of the 21st August of 2013 brought the international community’s spotlight firmly on the Assad regime for breaking international norms. The immediate consensus was for an intervention under a responsibility to protect mandate however, Russia and China fearing that this has the possibility to be exceeded like that of the Libyan crises vetoed the mandate.
As we have set the playing field on the various actors in this civil war, the long term outcome of whoever wins will have a longer bearing in the region and that of the wider international community. Can the west afford to let the fundamentalist groups gain an upper hand?
Former CIA Director General Michael Hayden (PRESSE, 2013) has stated that keeping Assad in power could be the best possible outcome for Syria and the international community to bring back some stability into the region. While this might sound impalpable for the regional actors who have backed the anti-Assad rebels, the fact remains that there is a possibility that the fundamentalist could gain control and install a Shariaist backed Islamic state.
After a decade long war in Afghanistan, no one in the west needs a reminder of what another anti –western sharia state could evolve to and the possibility of another state harbouring all who oppose the western way of life and ideals. What this could lead to down the road from now all because the west failed to pick the right horse to back.
While the talks in Geneva continue and will no doubt fail a number of times before all the factions get concessions, the war will continue in Syria and the fundamentalists groups get stronger with more and more disjointed men women and children joining their ranks. This current situation with the various groups baying for power could have far reaching implications for many years until there is a decisive victor. Who that victor is, will decide the regional hegemony and current policy on the region from the west.
Works Cited
Karen DeYoung, 2014.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c80874-8451-11e3-8099-9181471f7aaf_story.html. [Online]
Available at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c80874-8451-11e3-8099-9181471f7aaf_story.html
[Accessed 26 Jan 2014].
PRESSE, A. F., 2013.
http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-hayden-syria-assad-2013-12. [Online]
Available at:
http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-hayden-syria-assad-2013-12
[Accessed 26 Jan 2014].
