Some...unpopular observations.
- Is China our greatest threat or not? What's Japan's? "Enemy of my enemy" and all that.
- What vetting has taken place IRT to Japan as a whole? That's clearly not open source, but a topic to consider.
- With that said, what does our CI posture look like WRT Japan?
- Our security is trash at the moment, China has penetrated us in ways porn can never rival. Adding Japan harms us how?
I don't know if Japan is ready for FVEY, but maybe it is time to consider a new security group that encompasses nations who have more to lose than to gain by partnering w/ China.
1) China is the greatest nation state threat. Russia is a close second, Iran is at third. North Korea has potential to be higher, but I wouldn't peg them above 4th.
2) Won't discuss here.
3) Won't discuss here, except that I feel comfortable with them in ways I'm not when it comes to our other allies like France (personal experience/anecdote)
4) China has some good capabilities for sure, but I've seen that mostly against NIPR and non-TS or SCI networks, discounting encryption. Japan has the technical capacity to be secure from China, and I think with discipline (hardly lost on their culture) they can effectively safeguard things we share with them as well as current FVEY members.
Totally agree on India. At the same time, India is our best regional option to blunt the Chinese/ PK/ AFG relationship militarily and economically.
I like India- a lot. I also trust them as much as the French on topics they aren't interested in (so not much).
Another article from August. The proposed expansion includes Japan, Germany, France and South Korea. Very interesting strategic choices.
Is Seoul Prepared to Join a Five Eyes Plus Framework? | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Why the f*** would we bring Germany and France into FVEY? Truth be told, they would be great in a framework that provides limited (VERY LIMITED) access, but French and German CI threats are far too significant to provide the necessary connections and access to reveal current FVEY capabilities. That's not classified- just fact. France invests in espionage instead of R&D, and the Germans have made it clear how they feel about US/FVEY SIGINT usage in their country.
Not to say we don't have trusted partners in each country- we do, but it would be a significant increase in risk to loss of control of information to deeply broaden access to that information.