http://www.thespectrum.com/article/20101217/OPINION/12170355
"The shift has started to take effect," said General James Cartwright, in that understated Pentagonese that obscures what's actually happening. Cartwright, currently vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, addressed reporters last week on the fight in Afghanistan.
"(Our) counterinsurgency strategy is balanced by a counterterrorism strategy," he said. "Now we need to reduce (Taliban) lines of communication and reduce that flow," he said. "Counterinsurgency is starting to shift to have an element of counterterrorism larger than we thought (we'd) need."
He's referring to the stepped-up tempo of Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan, which includes Special Forces, Delta, Navy SEALs, Rangers, the British SAS and other elite units. For whatever reason, the results of SOF "counterterrorism" efforts have been getting quite a bit of media play lately. For example, coalition officials recently disclosed to the Long War Journal that from June to December 2010, SOF troops executed about 7,100 raids. In those operations, more than 4,100 Taliban fighters were captured and more than 2,000 killed. More than 600 of those were insurgent leaders, those leading Taliban cells and coordinating attacks. In a similar release, officials told a reporter for Brit newspaper The Sun that 3,200 Taliban had been taken out in just 90 days, with 387 being leaders.
Assuming these numbers are relatively accurate, some back-of-the-napkin calculations reveal the following stats:
¥ Crank it up. Those 7,100 missions in six months works out to more than 1,100 a month and almost 40 raids a night. That's a lot of door kicking. But also, think of all the supporting efforts that go into that. That level of activity represents a ton of helicopter, logistics, comms and intel support.
¥ Roll 'em up. The 180-day and 90-day tallies of Taliban captured or killed in the above sources averages to between 33 and 35 insurgents removed from the battlefield each day. Yes, of those captured, some are released through the sieve of Afghanistan's judicial system, but many of them stay for awhile, leave the insurgency or give up important intel.
¥ Put 'em down. Of course dead insurgents don't come back. Two thousand Taliban fighters killed in 180 days is about 11 per day. Sure, others take their place, but attrition exacts its toll on an insurgent force. Experience suffers. Morale decreases. Desertions increase.
¥ Wear 'em out. The figures above translate into three to five Taliban leaders killed or captured daily. The big target of the SOF raids is the mid-level Taliban leadership. As we found out in Iraq, when you keep taking out the middle layers, an insurgent/terrorist organization breaks down. Another recent general officer statement is telling. "Every 24 hours on average we're killing three to five mid-level (Taliban) leaders," said General John Nicholson. "It's lowered the average age of enemy leadership because they're getting killed so quickly. It's severely disrupting their command and control."
One more detail. These numbers only reflect the reported results of Special Ops missions. Add in what conventional U.S. Army, Marine, coalition and Afghan units are doing and you start to see the kind of pressure being put on the Taliban.
Tad Trueblood has more than 20 years experience in the U.S. Air Force and national security community. He lives in Santa Clara.
One more detail. These numbers only reflect the reported results of Special Ops missions. Add in what conventional U.S. Army, Marine, coalition and Afghan units are doing and you start to see the kind of pressure being put on the Taliban.
Tad Trueblood has more than 20 years experience in the U.S. Air Force and national security community. He lives in Santa Clara.
"The shift has started to take effect," said General James Cartwright, in that understated Pentagonese that obscures what's actually happening. Cartwright, currently vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, addressed reporters last week on the fight in Afghanistan.
"(Our) counterinsurgency strategy is balanced by a counterterrorism strategy," he said. "Now we need to reduce (Taliban) lines of communication and reduce that flow," he said. "Counterinsurgency is starting to shift to have an element of counterterrorism larger than we thought (we'd) need."
He's referring to the stepped-up tempo of Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan, which includes Special Forces, Delta, Navy SEALs, Rangers, the British SAS and other elite units. For whatever reason, the results of SOF "counterterrorism" efforts have been getting quite a bit of media play lately. For example, coalition officials recently disclosed to the Long War Journal that from June to December 2010, SOF troops executed about 7,100 raids. In those operations, more than 4,100 Taliban fighters were captured and more than 2,000 killed. More than 600 of those were insurgent leaders, those leading Taliban cells and coordinating attacks. In a similar release, officials told a reporter for Brit newspaper The Sun that 3,200 Taliban had been taken out in just 90 days, with 387 being leaders.
Assuming these numbers are relatively accurate, some back-of-the-napkin calculations reveal the following stats:
¥ Crank it up. Those 7,100 missions in six months works out to more than 1,100 a month and almost 40 raids a night. That's a lot of door kicking. But also, think of all the supporting efforts that go into that. That level of activity represents a ton of helicopter, logistics, comms and intel support.
¥ Roll 'em up. The 180-day and 90-day tallies of Taliban captured or killed in the above sources averages to between 33 and 35 insurgents removed from the battlefield each day. Yes, of those captured, some are released through the sieve of Afghanistan's judicial system, but many of them stay for awhile, leave the insurgency or give up important intel.
¥ Put 'em down. Of course dead insurgents don't come back. Two thousand Taliban fighters killed in 180 days is about 11 per day. Sure, others take their place, but attrition exacts its toll on an insurgent force. Experience suffers. Morale decreases. Desertions increase.
¥ Wear 'em out. The figures above translate into three to five Taliban leaders killed or captured daily. The big target of the SOF raids is the mid-level Taliban leadership. As we found out in Iraq, when you keep taking out the middle layers, an insurgent/terrorist organization breaks down. Another recent general officer statement is telling. "Every 24 hours on average we're killing three to five mid-level (Taliban) leaders," said General John Nicholson. "It's lowered the average age of enemy leadership because they're getting killed so quickly. It's severely disrupting their command and control."
One more detail. These numbers only reflect the reported results of Special Ops missions. Add in what conventional U.S. Army, Marine, coalition and Afghan units are doing and you start to see the kind of pressure being put on the Taliban.
Tad Trueblood has more than 20 years experience in the U.S. Air Force and national security community. He lives in Santa Clara.
One more detail. These numbers only reflect the reported results of Special Ops missions. Add in what conventional U.S. Army, Marine, coalition and Afghan units are doing and you start to see the kind of pressure being put on the Taliban.
Tad Trueblood has more than 20 years experience in the U.S. Air Force and national security community. He lives in Santa Clara.