Response by the BCT S2 in question. Lifted from Intelst:
Thanks all for the vote of confidence. As the BCT S2 in question it is
heartening to know that none of my peers would second guess me. Since I
know exactly what the CJTF and I put together to inform MG Burgess'
testimony, I can tell you that the "anonymous official" does not have a
clue on the subject.
The two reports in question, misquoted in the original newspaper article
as three reports, were more than three weeks apart, came from an organic
HCT so the data was mine, and one of the reports referred to an entirely
different location from Keating. Both my BCT and I know that we did not
"miss" anything. I am relatively certain that the CJTF also feels that
way. Unfortunately, in the end, I think that some other Operations type
guys will pin this as an "intel failure". I would hope that no one on
this forum falls into that trap.
Damn, I feel for the guy! I've been in similar situations over the years, and he's right - the meat eaters, hand wringers, and chair warmers will blame it on intel. They just don't get it that intel isn't a be all/end all. And they don't like to hear qualifiers like "Possible" or "Probable." I've been involved in some pretty politically hot problems over the years - some for Burgess when he was a mere COL and can honestly say that I never reported anything except for what I knew to be certain without qualifying it. I don't want to send a bunch of operators after a target with some distorted/skewed picture of what they're about to run into.
If any of you are "plugged-in" right now try and find other SIGACTS from that area. Specifically, a UH-60 shoot-down at the base of the hill Keating is on, across the river from the Mirdish school. O/A 20 July 07. First one to find anything gets a prize.;)
I was the senior IO/SIGINT dude in the N2K at that time. We had TONs of reports from between Dokalam and Barge Matal. Two overrun outposts later (Wygal Jun, 08/Warheight 09) we now admit that is enemy territory?
S-2 needs to look at historical data going back further than the standard 30-60-90-180 day trend. That is a seasonal battlefield. The passes don't thaw sometimes until June. Haji goes to PK to live, train, study, or teach for years at a time. Thus, he falls off the JPEL. That's why this stuff keeps happening. The overelays/targeting matricies get scrubbed and BINGO, Haji is now an ANA CDR. Read the reports today of the OGA Gym at Chapman.