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They were already getting stung in the Ukraine. See how many points Putin earns for involvement in a Venezuelan conflict. He needs to tread carefully.
Venezuela
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Devildoc
Verified Military
It's also gonna create more refugees, and guess where they'll go....
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Florida has enough problems. We're gonna' have to sit this one out. Good luck, America.
Exactly. And guess who will have to #DoSomething about the whole situation.
What you guys need, is a WALL!
R.Caerbannog
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Great post! Left me thinking for a bit. Since the RUS are obviously making moves to destabilize Venezuela in order to keep us out of Ukraine, I'm wondering if what's stopping us from doing the same. I mean RUS's economy and population demographics are in tatters and this game they're playing (for security) seems to rely on alot of pieces falling into place. I don't think that it would be terribly hard to throw a monkey wrench into their grand plans.
If someone can create enough of a maelstrom within the various Russian ethnic groups, maybe they'll turn they're focus inward. On the other hand, maybe Ukraine could be turned into a sort of pyrrhic campaign for the RUS. Get the RUS to focus all their attention in UKR, while we quietly clean up VEN, and focus on whittling RUS's fighting forces down.
Chavez made deals with Russia, Cuba and the PRC. A 2-billion arms deal with the Russians in 04...Cuba supplied intel officers who helped shape Venezuela's DIM (great initials for an intel service) into an agency geared to undermine political opposition.
It's been awhile since I've been down that way, but in addition to the military there's a grassroots paramilitary outfit there called the Bolivarian Circles...groups of independently organized squad-sized civilian units that Chavez and Maduro have armed...and a few years ago the estimated strength of these cells was about 10,000. The BC is modeled after Cuba's Committees for the Defence of the Revolution... and in my view these irregulars would be the Maduro regimes first response for violence against the opposition. And violence, I believe, is pretty inevitable here.
As far as Russian bombers and contractors or GRU paramilitaries or whatever they are...eh, just a little dog and pony from Moscow.
BTW, my son was slated to travel to Venezuela for the Caribbean baseball series February 2nd, but MLB is now warning players and staff about safety concerns. I don't know if Geoff is still planning to go, I'll talk to him tonight and tell him he might want to stay in FL. If his boss goes, he'll have to go too.
It's been awhile since I've been down that way, but in addition to the military there's a grassroots paramilitary outfit there called the Bolivarian Circles...groups of independently organized squad-sized civilian units that Chavez and Maduro have armed...and a few years ago the estimated strength of these cells was about 10,000. The BC is modeled after Cuba's Committees for the Defence of the Revolution... and in my view these irregulars would be the Maduro regimes first response for violence against the opposition. And violence, I believe, is pretty inevitable here.
As far as Russian bombers and contractors or GRU paramilitaries or whatever they are...eh, just a little dog and pony from Moscow.
BTW, my son was slated to travel to Venezuela for the Caribbean baseball series February 2nd, but MLB is now warning players and staff about safety concerns. I don't know if Geoff is still planning to go, I'll talk to him tonight and tell him he might want to stay in FL. If his boss goes, he'll have to go too.
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If he goes have an escape plan.
You do not want to be a white boy walking around in Venezuela right now. Especially military aged, clean cut, etc. Good way to get snatched up...
As for the russian deal, yeah when it jumps off, I imagine Russia is going to attempt to sell the weapons and ammo, probably try to get a foot in the door on their oil production, in an attempt to steer prices, etc.
Venezuela's been on our "freedom" list for 20+ years, we will be in there, if we are not already. Brazil and Colombia are all in on cleaning that place up as well. We ain't talking Syria here, a couple of bombers and maybe a sub is about all the influence russia can project in our hemisphere. And that won't last very long, unless Trump really is on Putin's payroll, I don't see how this ends well for Russia in any way. In other words Putin is biting off way more than he can chew.
As for the russian deal, yeah when it jumps off, I imagine Russia is going to attempt to sell the weapons and ammo, probably try to get a foot in the door on their oil production, in an attempt to steer prices, etc.
Venezuela's been on our "freedom" list for 20+ years, we will be in there, if we are not already. Brazil and Colombia are all in on cleaning that place up as well. We ain't talking Syria here, a couple of bombers and maybe a sub is about all the influence russia can project in our hemisphere. And that won't last very long, unless Trump really is on Putin's payroll, I don't see how this ends well for Russia in any way. In other words Putin is biting off way more than he can chew.
Devildoc
Verified Military
Snatched up as in.....what, exactly? For-reals curious, I am behind the curve with all-things South American.
As far as Russia, everything old is new again. Cold War part....II? III? Whatever. Wherever they are, we'll be. Vice versa. But it is a whole lot harder for Russia to be a legit threat staging there with a log train over a billion miles. They'll sell arms and give them cash but I can't see it growing into too much of a military threat.
Venezuela's Intel services, loyalist, etc, etc. They are going to be looking for Americans, especially with Trump openly backing the interim president.
Might be alright with a major group, but I wouldn't consider it...
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I just learned they're moving the series to Panama, one of my old stomping grounds. Relieved, to say the least.
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Kidnapping for ransom is big business in Central and S. America. Has been for years. They target anybody they think has money. I tell people I know going south, dress poor, don't throw money around, situational awareness at all times, stay away from ATMs. Tourists and business people are often targeted, sometimes it's political, or for revenge--but mostly it's profit motivated and carried out by criminal gangs. Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela have the biggest numbers.
Junglefalls
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My family was pretty close with a family of Venezuelan asylum-seekers that came here a few years ago after the father got kidnapped for ransom in Caracas. They had some pretty eye-opening stories of the organized crime and corruption down there.
Selfishly hoping all of this shakes out in a way that allows me to visit the country safely in my lifetime...
I read a story a few years back that talked about the break down of the justice system and how bands of cops formed kill squads. Not that it's all that uncommon in South America. But always disturbing nonetheless.
The problems with Venezuela is numerous, you have a government that at best is willfully oblivious and at worst completely involved with the cartels.
While they have had problems since the early 70's. That evolved with people like Chavez who already took a corrupt government and military and made it even worse through spreading corruption from the very top downward. You have groups like FARC, ELN, Los Zetas, and the Sinaloa Cartel who are arguably allowed to operate freely by the government and suspected to support said groups. Which is highly plausible considering the fact that you have someone like Maduro promoting members of The Cartel of The Sun to high ranking government positions, and Diosado Cabello a member of the National Assembly and former head speaker who is believed to be the head of the previously mentioned Cartel De Sol.
Not to mention Venezuea is a major drug corridor to the coast for global shipping and as Columbia cracks down more on drug trafficking more and more organizations are finding the leniency and arguably asylum of Venezuela appealing versus their old stomping grounds.
The largest issue though is the apathy of the general public, not to say that there are people who don't care but Venezuela is not unlike Mexico in the sense that the general overall populace has gotten used to the status quo. That the people who could make changes for the better from the ground up won't.
Is all of this to say that you can't enjoy a night out on the town in Caracas? No. But as @Ocoka said you need to he aware of what's going on around you.
ETA: the anti drug strategy of playing whack-a-mole country to country and group to group is not effective what so ever, you need to change the perception and mentality of the populace if you want to succeed in this.
While they have had problems since the early 70's. That evolved with people like Chavez who already took a corrupt government and military and made it even worse through spreading corruption from the very top downward. You have groups like FARC, ELN, Los Zetas, and the Sinaloa Cartel who are arguably allowed to operate freely by the government and suspected to support said groups. Which is highly plausible considering the fact that you have someone like Maduro promoting members of The Cartel of The Sun to high ranking government positions, and Diosado Cabello a member of the National Assembly and former head speaker who is believed to be the head of the previously mentioned Cartel De Sol.
Not to mention Venezuea is a major drug corridor to the coast for global shipping and as Columbia cracks down more on drug trafficking more and more organizations are finding the leniency and arguably asylum of Venezuela appealing versus their old stomping grounds.
The largest issue though is the apathy of the general public, not to say that there are people who don't care but Venezuela is not unlike Mexico in the sense that the general overall populace has gotten used to the status quo. That the people who could make changes for the better from the ground up won't.
Is all of this to say that you can't enjoy a night out on the town in Caracas? No. But as @Ocoka said you need to he aware of what's going on around you.
ETA: the anti drug strategy of playing whack-a-mole country to country and group to group is not effective what so ever, you need to change the perception and mentality of the populace if you want to succeed in this.
DoS Level 4 Travel Warning for Venezuela:
https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...el-Country-Information-Pages/Venezuela.html#/
This was updated today. DoS has been issuing travel warnings for Venezuela since July 2017, but these latest conform to the current deteriorating situation.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...el-Country-Information-Pages/Venezuela.html#/
This was updated today. DoS has been issuing travel warnings for Venezuela since July 2017, but these latest conform to the current deteriorating situation.
My brother has a Venezuelan girlfriend who wanted him to go to VZ with her last Thanksgiving. I'm pretty sure I said he was a "fucking idiot" if he went and then explained why. Vagina being what it is and the power it holds had him convinced he would be safe. I eventually talked him out of it, one of my arguments being kidnapped gringos make for good ransom.
He didn't go, but the power of vagina...we'll have this conversation again.
He didn't go, but the power of vagina...we'll have this conversation again.
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