Iraq and ISIS Discussion

[Diamondback 2/2]

The biggest thing that would undermine disaffection toward their government and galvanize them against the west is any perception (real or imagined) that they're being externally influenced. They don't like their own government making up their minds for them (see also the 2009 election of Ahmedinejad), and they REALLY don't like outsiders doing it.

Change would be great, but it's a place to tread extremely lightly.

I don't disagree, but the other side of the coin is their dedication to supporting terrorist groups who attack us and our allies. Allowing these proxi conflicts and political influences to go unchecked has put where we are today. Our sailors getting snatched up, buzzing our ships, Iranian government throwing us the finger as they attack us covertly and we do nothing about it.

I'm all for stabilizing the middle east, and definitely don't want my son chewing they same sand I did 10 years from now. But damn, some times you have to cut out that cancer so the body can begin to heal. We had that opportunity in 2003, we had a similar opportunity in 2011. Who knows when we will get another one.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

You make good points here, but we thought that we would be welcomed as liberators in Iraq after we took out that POS Saddam and we were wrong. Yes, you would think these people would want to be free but as we both know, those dudes don't think like we do!

Initially we were welcomed as liberators, a year with looting, murder, kiddnapings, no work, no utilities, midnight raids and prisoner abuse being front page to the world, tends to change that welcome to a big fuck you. Than clerics pushing their anti American bullshit start to get a lot more support and uneducated masses, don't question or think for themselves. Than you have supporters of al-Sadr, or AQ-I and waring tribes locked into a civil war. I had the front row seat for 31 months of my life, hell half the people we rolled up didn't even know why they were fighting us "dick head leader over here said to" type shit. Hell most couldn't even read much less research their own religion. I think we got played by a few smart guys controlling a shit load of dumb ones.

I'm not saying I'm right on all counts, but my experience, research and thoughts have lead me to my opinions. It ain't some shit I'm just throwing out as "what if's". But hell, I've been wrong 'once' before.:-"

 

[Topkick]

Initially we were welcomed as liberators, a year with looting, murder, kiddnapings, no work, no utilities, midnight raids and prisoner abuse being front page to the world, tends to change that welcome to a big fuck you. Than clerics pushing their anti American bullshit start to get a lot more support and uneducated masses, don't question or think for themselves. Than you have supporters of al-Sadr, or AQ-I and waring tribes locked into a civil war. I had the front row seat for 31 months of my life, hell half the people we rolled up didn't even know why they were fighting us "dick head leader over here said to" type shit. Hell most couldn't even read much less research their own religion. I think we got played by a few smart guys controlling a shit load of dumb ones.

I'm not saying I'm right on all counts, but my experience, research and thoughts have lead me to my opinions. It ain't some shit I'm just throwing out as "what if's". But hell, I've been wrong 'once' before.:-"

I got to embrace the suck too my friend. The insurgency started almost immediately and part of this was because we are infidels occupying their holy land, which stems from the first gulf war. You are not wrong at all, its just a really big can of worms.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I think there is alot of things that have lead us to where we are with regards to modern day Iraq. The mongols sacking Baghdad and killing off all the educated people, the crusades, the British Empire rule and subsequent dividing border lines, forcing tribes to attempt to unite under one banner called "Iraq". Or the division of those tribes by borders that have existed for less than a century, while the tribes have beliefs they are the decedent's of the cradle of life itself. The western influences in attempting to exploit their oil. The backing and arming of a brutal dictator, who ruled these tribes with an iron fist. Who we later turned against, than placing crippling economic sanctions for over a decade. Only to invade and overthrow that dictator while leaving there infrastructure in shambles, etc. Not even diving into the fuck ups along the way during OIF, we're just talking a brief overview of Iraq. Iran is another ball of wax in of itself, much less the region.

Yeah it's a can of worms...

 

[ThunderHorse]

How do you figure? You think the countless Joe's who were mutilated and killed by Iranian made EFP's was something to be over looked? Or the Iranian infultrater Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army (militia) or the political and psychological controls they placed on Iraqis and disruption of our own strategy was something to be over looked? You think Iran having political and economical influence over a war torn Iraq is a good thing? You believe Iran's threat to our partnerships in the middle east and there vowing promise to destroy Israel, is a good thing for the region? Won't even get into the terrorism sponsoring they have been doing for the last 35 years.

Nah dude, we should smoked that government while we had the momentum and the semi backing of the world/coalition governments. It ain't going to happen now, until they directly attack the United States or one of our allies. Something we should have never waited for IMHO.

An invasion of Iran would have been a blood bath.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

An invasion of Iran would have been a blood bath.

Dude sometimes I have a serious time deciphering if you are trolling or trying to make a legitimate statement.?

Iran's military capabilities is a joke in comparison to ours. The only "blood bath" would be their own military forces. In a head to head conventional war, we would monkey stomp the shit out of them. I mean just going off of manpower, equipment, munitions and budgets, they literally stand no chance. Not even getting into the technical advances we have over them. We would rule their skies and coastal waters in a matter of hours, and their land forces in a matter of days.

I don't like to make light of any war, but come on man, Iran? The Army that rolled out the fake fiberglass "stealth fighter" and who does military demonstrations of dudes in pajamas repelling from power poles, or their great Navy commandos acting like kids at a pool with Kbar, or their great demonstrations of the "martial arts" of the Iranian forces. I mean I'm not saying they're not shit for the region, they just ain't shit for us.

The big bad Iranian boogie man. LOL

 

[ThunderHorse]

Difference between and Iranian Moderate politician and a far right politician when put on our scale is negligible. It's just the amount of times over they would desire to destroy Israel. Yeah, there are some groups that they have to deal with from time to time.

Immediately turning to the right flank to do some thunder run on Iran when they had roughly 300,000 regulars between volunteers and conscripts, another 700k in reserves, then add IRGC regulars and irregulars. Do you really think going in another mountain country would be remotely a good idea. Yeah, we'd probably kick some serious ass during the invasion, but this would become a defensive and irregular fight very fast. And then you add to the fact that there's 82,000,000 people that would definitely want to shoot every US Soldier in the back. No thank you.

We also have that awesome benefit of hindsight that shows invading Iraq didn't necessarily get us much.

 

[racing_kitty]

Difference between and Iranian Moderate politician and a far right politician when put on our scale is negligible. It's just the amount of times over they would desire to destroy Israel. Yeah, there are some groups that they have to deal with from time to time.

Immediately turning to the right flank to do some thunder run on Iran when they had roughly 300,000 regulars between volunteers and conscripts, another 700k in reserves, then add IRGC regulars and irregulars. Do you really think going in another mountain country would be remotely a good idea. Yeah, we'd probably kick some serious ass during the invasion, but this would become a defensive and irregular fight very fast. And then you add to the fact that there's 82,000,000 people that would definitely want to shoot every US Soldier in the back. No thank you.

We also have that awesome benefit of hindsight that shows invading Iraq didn't necessarily get us much.

I agree with the part in bold. Turning our sights on Iran in conventional combat during our foray into Iraq would've been an absolutely ghastly idea. We were barely able to fight a two-front war as it was, with help, and look how Afghanistan turned out as a result. Even our special operations assets were working overtime with what we already had on our plate. Entering combat with Iran during that misguided decade would only sound like a good idea in a Tom Clancy novel.

As far as why we didn't topple the theocracy when the opportunity presented itself, I don't have a ready, in-depth answer for that. To really effect change from the inside, we would've needed contacts on the inside that could provide the "nudge here, push there" needed for that pile of Jenga blocks to fall over. Those assets would've taken time to establish. time that we did not invest in for the longest. Even if we dropped in a small group of trigger pullers and door kickers, and pulled them right back out before the smoke had cleared, we'd still be in the wrong in the eyes of the Arab world; whoever came to power afterwards would bear the taint of being an American puppet just because they benefited from our presence.

 

[Gunz]

Dude sometimes I have a serious time deciphering if you are trolling or trying to make a legitimate statement.?

Iran's military capabilities is a joke in comparison to ours. The only "blood bath" would be their own military forces. In a head to head conventional war, we would monkey stomp the shit out of them. I mean just going off of manpower, equipment, munitions and budgets, they literally stand no chance. Not even getting into the technical advances we have over them. We would rule their skies and coastal waters in a matter of hours, and their land forces in a matter of days.

I don't like to make light of any war, but come on man, Iran? The Army that rolled out the fake fiberglass "stealth fighter" and who does military demonstrations of dudes in pajamas repelling from power poles, or their great Navy commandos acting like kids at a pool with Kbar, or their great demonstrations of the "martial arts" of the Iranian forces. I mean I'm not saying they're not shit for the region, they just ain't shit for us.

The big bad Iranian boogie man. LOL

I like a lot of what you write, J... emotionally I'm all about turning Iran into a big sandy hole. But to try and take it on with everything else on our plate at the time would've been a disaster for many of the reasons already stated. From a resource standpoint alone, it would've drained the barrel dry.

If you look at the bright side, Iran may give us any number of reasons to make it a big sandy hole in the future. There are a few other places just asking for it, too.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Difference between and Iranian Moderate politician and a far right politician when put on our scale is negligible. It's just the amount of times over they would desire to destroy Israel. Yeah, there are some groups that they have to deal with from time to time.

Immediately turning to the right flank to do some thunder run on Iran when they had roughly 300,000 regulars between volunteers and conscripts, another 700k in reserves, then add IRGC regulars and irregulars. Do you really think going in another mountain country would be remotely a good idea. Yeah, we'd probably kick some serious ass during the invasion, but this would become a defensive and irregular fight very fast. And then you add to the fact that there's 82,000,000 people that would definitely want to shoot every US Soldier in the back. No thank you.

We also have that awesome benefit of hindsight that shows invading Iraq didn't necessarily get us much.

That was a good well thought out post.

So are you stating that we wouldn't have accomplished anything by thumping on the Iranian military? Or are you stating that if we did, the civilian population would turn against us and or kill us all?

Do you think leaving Iran unchecked has accomplished anything? They have literally been directly responsible for the death and wounding of thousands of our services members. They have sponsored terrorism around the globe, they al-Sadr and his Mahdi army, and manipulated Iraq political gov. And now gone as far as to start snatching our sailors and our allies sailors.

Now they are trying to build a nuclear weapons program.

Do you really, truly, honestly believe that facing Iran 5-10 years from now when they have nuclear weapon capabilities is going to be better than it would have been in 2003?

 

[ThunderHorse]

That was a good well thought out post.

So are you stating that we wouldn't have accomplished anything by thumping on the Iranian military? Or are you stating that if we did, the civilian population would turn against us and or kill us all?

Do you think leaving Iran unchecked has accomplished anything? They have literally been directly responsible for the death and wounding of thousands of our services members. They have sponsored terrorism around the globe, they al-Sadr and his Mahdi army, and manipulated Iraq political gov. And now gone as far as to start snatching our sailors and our allies sailors.

Now they are perusing a nuclear weapons program.

Do you really, truly, honestly believe that facing Iran 5-10 years from now when they have nuclear weapon capabilities is going to be better than it would have been in 2003?

So in that same breadth, why have we not exacted regime change in SA, UAE, Qatar?

I don't really know where you're going with this, but I'm just doing the math and going towards Tehran would have done nothing for us. Policing the world makes you a lot of dangerous enemies.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

So in that same breadth, why have we not exacted regime change in SA, UAE, Qatar?

Oil, they play ball by our rules and Iran will not. Russia's backing of Iran and Syria has nothing to do with being buddy-buddy andeverything to do with Oil, an oil pipe line to a deep port and removing our economic influence through oil.

I don't really know where you're going with this, but I'm just doing the math and going towards Tehran would have done nothing for us. Policing the world makes you a lot of dangerous enemies.

When you run the world, you have to police it. Heavy is the crown and whatnot. Limiting Iranian influence in the middle east, specifically keeping an arms race from happening and maintaining our middle eastern allies, who are adamantly opposed to Iran and their influence in the region is a major reason why. Never mind the fact that they want to destroy the only true democracy in the middle east, Israel.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Yeah I'm not starting a World War on a whim. If you want to turn the place into green glass, I'm up for that!

I'm trying to see how you figure we could have done it as well. It becomes a logistical nightmare let alone the cost in blood.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Yeah I'm not starting a World War on a whim. If you want to turn the place into green glass, I'm up for that!

I'm trying to see how you figure we could have done it as well. It becomes a logistical nightmare let alone the cost in blood.

I'll reply later tonight.

 

[TLDR20]

Saw Eagles of Death Metal tonight. They were playing during the shootings in Paris, just another daily reminder: FUCK ISIS.

 

[DocIllinois]

Love that Eagles of Death Metal are included in a modern conflict section.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Yeah I'm not starting a World War on a whim. If you want to turn the place into green glass, I'm up for that!

A bit of a contradiction in that statement. But, nobody is saying start WW3 on a whim.

I'm trying to see how you figure we could have done it as well. It becomes a logistical nightmare let alone the cost in blood.

How is Iran any different from a logistical stand point than Iraq?

As for how I figure the US Military could have done it, really? 1)an Arab coalition to step in immediately post conflict. 2) Air and Sea Campaign to hit all their airfields, weapons sights, major communication and command centers. You know the whole "shock and awe" thing. 3) amphibious assualt from the south, overland assualt from the west, and some good old mischief from the east. I'd send the Army heavy from Iraq, I'd send the Marines from the south and I'd use Army light units back with alot of anti armor and arty on the east. Link SF with the Kurds on the northwest, maybe drop an Airplane gang some where's in there. Let SOF hunt down key leaders.

Oh wait, where does that sound familiar from...

I think you and I have very different views on Iran's capabilities. I don't see a blood bath, I don't see a long term conflict, and I think an Iran in shambles vs a regional power is a good thing. Take out their military, take out their leaders, destroy their nuclear programs, and leave them in shambles. Let the Arab world deal with it. Eventually that region is going to evolve, either on their own, or through the barrel of a gun. But it's going to happen, the world can't keep being held up up by goat herding donkey fuckers. We got better shit to do.

 

[ThunderHorse]

How is Iran any different from a logistical stand point than Iraq?

As for how I figure the US Military could have done it, really? 1)an Arab coalition to step in immediately post conflict. 2) Air and Sea Campaign to hit all their airfields, weapons sights, major communication and command centers. You know the whole "shock and awe" thing. 3) amphibious assualt from the south, overland assualt from the west, and some good old mischief from the east. I'd send the Army heavy from Iraq, I'd send the Marines from the south and I'd use Army light units back with alot of anti armor and arty on the east. Link SF with the Kurds on the northwest, maybe drop an Airplane gang some where's in there. Let SOF hunt down key leaders.

Oh wait, where does that sound familiar from...

I think you and I have very different views on Iran's capabilities. I don't see a blood bath, I don't see a long term conflict, and I think an Iran in shambles vs a regional power is a good thing. Take out their military, take out their leaders, destroy their nuclear programs, and leave them in shambles. Let the Arab world deal with it. Eventually that region is going to evolve, either on their own, or through the barrel of a gun. But it's going to happen, the world can't keep being held up up by goat herding donkey fuckers. We got better shit to do.

1) There was no Arab coalition prepared or willing to occupy Iraq or Afghanistan (yes Afghans are not Arab, but they are Muslim). Saudis getting their ass kicked in Yemen still. Turks would definitely tell us to piss off, again.
2) Air Campaign, we'll lose a some planes but I see air supremacy eventually happening.
3) Amphibious Assault quickly becomes a fight through mountains. Coming from the West is a fight through mountains.
4) Our coalition of the willing quickly beats feet out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

When it comes to capabilities, I'm not worried about Air Land Battle on an open plain, it's getting to that open plain where you can somehow achieve your decisive victory that you think is going to happen. Logistically it's a nightmare, the people in the surrounding countries already hate us and their governments tolerate us because our backing is in their interest against Iran. But this isn't some punitive expedition, if you didn't notice we're back in Iraq. We'd be exposed on both of our flanks and I'm not willing to bet that any of those Arab countries would provide a logistical hub. You're talking about owning a battle space with over 100 million muldoons that would drop a grenade in your rucksack and shoot you in the back.

No thank you.

 

[Topkick]

Whether or not we can take down the Iranian Army and its government is not in question. We could. Its what happens after that I would be concerned with. These countries do not want to evolve. Research the Iran hostage crisis of 1979. If we ever do take Iran, we better have a fool- proof post invasion plan or I am afraid we have not seen the depths of terrorism we could see.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

1) There was no Arab coalition prepared or willing to occupy Iraq or Afghanistan (yes Afghans are not Arab, but they are Muslim). Saudis getting their ass kicked in Yemen still. Turks would definitely tell us to piss off, again.
2) Air Campaign, we'll lose a some planes but I see air supremacy eventually happening.
3) Amphibious Assault quickly becomes a fight through mountains. Coming from the West is a fight through mountains.
4) Our coalition of the willing quickly beats feet out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

When it comes to capabilities, I'm not worried about Air Land Battle on an open plain, it's getting to that open plain where you can somehow achieve your decisive victory that you think is going to happen. Logistically it's a nightmare, the people in the surrounding countries already hate us and their governments tolerate us because our backing is in their interest against Iran. But this isn't some punitive expedition, if you didn't notice we're back in Iraq. We'd be exposed on both of our flanks and I'm not willing to bet that any of those Arab countries would provide a logistical hub. You're talking about owning a battle space with over 100 million muldoons that would drop a grenade in your rucksack and shoot you in the back.

No thank you.

I've changed my mind, you are absolutely right. There is no way we can move logistics through two sea ports (I mean not like we did it in a landlocked country or anything). We would never be able to protect our flanks against the amazing military forces of Iraq and Afghanistan (which we had already owned at that point) and we would totally be stopped cold by 100 million Iranian booger eaters (that didn't exist in 2003, yeah it was more like 60 mil than and 90 mil now, but thats beside the point not every civil is going pick up a gun). I guess while you tremble at the prospect of taking out our enemies in Iran, we can wait and see what they end up doing with that nuclear program.

At least if we had done it in 03, I wouldn't have to worry about my kids having the finish the job, or if these fuck end up sneaking a nuke into our country.