Official Ukraine/Georgian Thread

[Marauder06]

 

[Chopstick]

Rachel Maddow is a fucking clown. I'd rather receive a foreign policy lecture from a class of third graders.

Stay tuned for Kerry in Kiev tomorrow......

Here you go @Freefalling. About 35 seconds in.

 

[DA SWO]

Did the intel community see this coming?

I was in Kuwait when he annexed parts of georgia (we assisted the Georgian Goverment by expediting their troops return from OIF).

Seems like a pretty similar situation. If I was a former Soviet sates I'd just let my Russian Speaking provinces return to Russia and avoid all the dangers an accidental war could bring.

Again, the issue (like Hitler in Pre-WW II Germany), what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking Provinces to annex?

 

[AWP]

Again, the issue (like Hitler in Pre-WW II Germany), what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking Provinces to annex?

Depends on his end-state. He can only go so far. Putin doesn't strike me as being blind to reality. I think he knows he can push buttons in the Ukraine or Georgia, but I don't see him trying to have a Warsaw Pact Class of 56 reunion or anything. Is this just about power, resources, strategic positioning, all of the above?

All the more reason to check him, even a little. Events ripple and our actions here, Syria, Libya, etc. will ripple out to the next foreign policy crisis and the next and the next. Nations and leaders learn from other nations and leaders.

I did see that SECSTATE is in Kiev. Not a bad move, invading a country while our Sec. of State is in town? Even Putin's not that crazy.

 

[Marauder06]

Depends on his end-state. He can only go so far. Putin doesn't strike me as being blind to reality. I think he knows he can push buttons in the Ukraine or Georgia, but I don't see him trying to have a Warsaw Pact Class of 56 reunion or anything. Is this just about power, resources, strategic positioning, all of the above?

All the more reason to check him, even a little. Events ripple and our actions here, Syria, Libya, etc. will ripple out to the next foreign policy crisis and the next and the next. Nations and leaders learn from other nations and leaders.

I did see that SECSTATE is in Kiev. Not a bad move, invading a country while our Sec. of State is in town? Even Putin's not that crazy.

Putin already got what he wanted, he stuck his thumb in America's eye and we did nothing of consequence.

Putin doesn't want Ukraine, if he did he would have taken over the country before Kerry could have gotten there. Putin already took the part of the country he wanted, which is Crimea. If Kerry ends up going to Crimea... that's a different story. But I don't think he will.

Putin accomplished what he wanted and I don't think he stands to gain a lot by further provocation. He just intimidated the hell out of all of Eastern Europe and in so doing made Russia look strong and America look weak. Mission accomplished.

 

[DA SWO]

Putin already got what he wanted, he stuck his thumb in America's eye and we did nothing of consequence.

Putin doesn't want Ukraine, if he did he would have taken over the country before Kerry could have gotten there. Putin already took the part of the country he wanted, which is Crimea. If Kerry ends up going to Crimea... that's a different story. But I don't think he will.

Putin accomplished what he wanted and I don't think he stands to gain a lot by further provocation. He just intimidated the hell out of all of Eastern Europe and in so doing made Russia look strong and America look weak. Mission accomplished.

Which is why the G-8 becomming the G-7 would act as a stick in Putins eye. But the Europeans are too afraid he'll cut off the gas.

 

[Blizzard]

Which is why the G-8 becomming the G-7 would act as a stick in Putins eye. But the Europeans are too afraid he'll cut off the gas.

Agreed. What exactly will be Russia's consequence for this little indiscretion, assuming Putin goes no further? Nothing, kind of like Georgia...everyone just moves along? Is that acceptable?

 

[CQB]

Instant Ukraine toolkit

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffee...bluffing-your-way-through-the-ukraine-crisis/

 

[goon175]

Ya know, I wish someone would put sanctions on our country. Then we could go back to good ol' U.S. manufacturing and employment. It would also stimulate a lot of innovation I bet.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Ya know, I wish someone would put sanctions on our country. Then we could go back to good ol' U.S. manufacturing and employment. It would also stimulate a lot of innovation I bet.

Any sanctions that could be brought to bear against us will come in debt/currency and would have a totally different effect. Keeping it short, it would not only crush us, but a majority of the planet. And of course would further boost Russia and China...

 

[Salt USMC]

Russian markets are showing the world that we don't even need sanctions in order to bitchslap Russia's economy
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/03/investing/russia-markets-ruble/

 

[Poetic_Mind]

Did the intel community see this coming?

I was in Kuwait when he annexed parts of georgia (we assisted the Georgian Goverment by expediting their troops return from OIF).

Seems like a pretty similar situation. If I was a former Soviet sates I'd just let my Russian Speaking provinces return to Russia and avoid all the dangers an accidental war could bring.

Again, the issue (like Hitler in Pre-WW II Germany), what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking Provinces to annex?

Sad to say Ukraine will lose a lot more of its territory if Russia were to take the areas with a Russian-speaking majority. The entire eastern side of Ukraine could be annexed. Scary stuff.

The real end state to me still boils down to influence. It makes little sense for Russia to keep taking territories. It only wants to influence these countries economically, politically, and militarily. Crimea is more of an exception rather than a norm because it has so much intrinsic value to them containing the ports that house its black sea fleet.

And even with Georgia, I remember that conflict having to do with control over those pipelines that run through Russia. Once again, Russia wanted to only make a point who would control all of that precious oil that Eastern Europe still relies on. Economic infrastructure built upon the foundation that was the Cold War.

 

[TLDR20]

Ya know, I wish someone would put sanctions on our country. Then we could go back to good ol' U.S. manufacturing and employment. It would also stimulate a lot of innovation I bet.

No one has the ability to enforce a sanction on us .

 

[SpitfireV]

The EU could. It would be incredibly dumb of them but they could do it in theory.

 

[DA SWO]

Sad to say Ukraine will lose a lot more of its territory if Russia were to take the areas with a Russian-speaking majority. The entire eastern side of Ukraine could be annexed. Scary stuff.

The real end state to me still boils down to influence. It makes little sense for Russia to keep taking territories. It only wants to influence these countries economically, politically, and militarily. Crimea is more of an exception rather than a norm because it has so much intrinsic value to them containing the ports that house its black sea fleet.

And even with Georgia, I remember that conflict having to do with control over those pipelines that run through Russia. Once again, Russia wanted to only make a point who would control all of that precious oil that Eastern Europe still relies on. Economic infrastructure built upon the foundation that was the Cold War.

It may not make sense to you, but to Putin (and other Russian's) it makes perfect sense.

We can't expect the Russians to look at this through our eyes.

 

[Brill]

Sad to say Ukraine will lose a lot more of its territory if Russia were to take the areas with a Russian-speaking majority. The entire eastern side of Ukraine could be annexed. Scary stuff.

The real end state to me still boils down to influence. It makes little sense for Russia to keep taking territories. It only wants to influence these countries economically, politically, and militarily. Crimea is more of an exception rather than a norm because it has so much intrinsic value to them containing the ports that house its black sea fleet.

And even with Georgia, I remember that conflict having to do with control over those pipelines that run through Russia. Once again, Russia wanted to only make a point who would control all of that precious oil that Eastern Europe still relies on. Economic infrastructure built upon the foundation that was the Cold War.

The BTC doesn't go anywhere near South Ossetia in Georgia. The Russia-Georgia war was about NATO expansion into Russia's backyard.

Interesting ideas from a former National Security Advisor:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary...ormally-recognize-Ukraine-prepare-NATO-troops

 

[TLDR20]

The EU could. It would be incredibly dumb of them but they could do it in theory.

They have the ability to project force ?

 

[Brill]

http://nn.by/photos/z_2014_03/atkritka.jpg

"Speak Russian quietly or Putin will hear you

And send troops to your country for your salvation."

 

[RackMaster]

No one has the ability to enforce a sanction on us .

I'm pretty sure we could, shut down the border, block traffic into the Great Lakes and turn off pipelines.

Now that would never happen but it's possible.

 

[Brill]

I'm pretty sure we could, shut down the border, block traffic into the Great Lakes and turn off pipelines.

Now that would never happen but it's possible.

We'd escalate and PNG Bieber.