Official Ukraine/Georgian Thread

[DA SWO]

I'm pretty sure we could, shut down the border, block traffic into the Great Lakes and turn off pipelines.

Now that would never happen but it's possible.

True, but that would force more traffic into coastal ports.
Plus you'd have to stop exporting whaet via US waterways, and only use the St lawrence, are you guys a net exporter of food?

Remember, sanctions are always a two way street, limit imports and we would be forced to stop exporting food, and fuel (yes we EXPORT OIL).

That's why sanctions against Russia would fail, Russia would stop exporting Natural Gas, and the Arabs (and others) would hike the rates on what they sell to Europe.

That said, I wonder what kind of transit fees Russia and the EU pay the Ukraine?

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

China is about the only country that could really fuck us with import/export sanctions. And no they would not need a massive cooperation to do so. They also could dump our debts and send us in a downward spiral, or they could refuse to trade in the USD and basically collapse it. Of course all of those actions would immediately affect China as bad as us, but in the long term, China could recover, meanwhile we would be fooooooooocked for a long time.

Another thing to think about is we don't produce a lot of food, we mainly produce fuel based grains and we import a shit ton of food from Latin America, and right now China has been working trade agreements in Latin America.

I think the logic that we can't be effectively sanctioned is being a bit short sighted. Its very possible, it will just fuck everyone along the way.

 

[RackMaster]

We'd escalate and PNG Bieber.

He's your's now, remember the Olympics; we stay true to our word and a bet is a bet.

 

[Totentanz]

China is about the only country that could really fuck us with import/export sanctions.

As RM pointed out, if Canada (hypothetically) decided to stop playing nice with the oil, that would fuck up a significant part of US oil imports. Could we work around it? Absolutely, but life would become uncomfortable very quickly, especially given the volatility of oil prices and their tendency to fluctuate based on speculation and fear.

 

[SpitfireV]

They have the ability to project force ?

Projecting or using military force isn't the only way to enforce a sanction, as you well know.

 

[goon175]

So I want to preface this with the fact that my suggestion about sanctions against us was more in jest than anything else...

I do think there obviously would be some serious impacts on us initially, BUT our iconic American ingenuity would take over. I think it would be a net gain in efficiency as well as our economy. Companies would have to go back to hiring americans, our country would have to start using the renewable energy technology that we have in this country already instead of relying so heavily on oil trade, and farmers would have to step up to the plate for providing food. I think we would fuck other countries that don't have our technology, ingenuity, and massive resources a lot more than we would fuck ourselves.

 

[DA SWO]

China is about the only country that could really fuck us with import/export sanctions. And no they would not need a massive cooperation to do so. They also could dump our debts and send us in a downward spiral, or they could refuse to trade in the USD and basically collapse it. Of course all of those actions would immediately affect China as bad as us, but in the long term, China could recover, meanwhile we would be fooooooooocked for a long time.

Another thing to think about is we don't produce a lot of food, we mainly produce fuel based grains and we import a shit ton of food from Latin America, and right now China has been working trade agreements in Latin America.

I think the logic that we can't be effectively sanctioned is being a bit short sighted. Its very possible, it will just fuck everyone along the way.

We exported 114.03B in ag products during 2012.
That's a lot of stuff that can become bio fuel, or big macs.

 

[TLDR20]

Kissingers view on things.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinion...11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?tid=HP_lede

 

[DA SWO]

Kissingers view on things.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinion...11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?tid=HP_lede

I tend to ignore Kissenger.

His time is past.

Plus he sucks.

 

[DA SWO]

From the AF web page:

http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispl...c-135-to-augment-nato-mission-in-baltics.aspx


WASHINGTON (AFNS) --
Following Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's announcement today during Senate testimony that the United States is augmenting its participation in NATO's air policing mission in the Baltics and will increase joint training through its aviation detachment in Poland, a defense official provided additional information.

In a statement provided on background, the official said the United States currently provides four F-15s to fill NATO's January-through-April air policing rotation in the Baltics.

For the past 10 years, the official said, allies have provided on-call aircraft on a rotational basis to help in identifying and responding to violations of Baltic airspace. In addition to the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Turkey and Czech Republic all contributed rotations over time since the mission's inception, the official added.

This week, the United States will send six additional F-15s and one KC-135 to augment the mission, the official said. These aircraft -- currently based at Lakenheath in the United Kingdom -- will be deployed to Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania.

This action comes at the request of the United States' Baltic allies and "further demonstrates our commitment to NATO security," the official said.

Poland hosts 10 U.S Air Force personnel to support rotations of U.S. F-16s and C-130s for joint training with the Polish air force, the official said. The aviation detachment, or AVDET, is a practical way to strengthen interoperability with a key NATO ally, the official added, and represents the first continuous presence of a U.S. military unit on Polish soil.

The AVDET has supported four training rotations for U.S. aircraft since late 2012. During his trip to Poland earlier this year, the official noted, Hagel visited with U.S. and Polish airmen from the AVDET alongside Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak.

The detachment's presence in Poland also makes it possible to host multiple allied Air Force elements and serve as a regional hub for air training and multinational exercises, the official said, and the Defense Department is consulting with Polish allies on increasing activities associated with the detachment.

These are the low key actions that can be taken. Reassures NATO Partners that we won't run as soon as the Soviets, err, Putin rattles his sabre.

 

[Phil M]

According to the BBC... "Vladimir Putin has obtained parliamentary approval for troop deployments not just in Crimea, but Ukraine as a whole. Moscow, which regards the new authorities in Kiev as fascists, could send troops to "protect" ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.

That would enrage nationalists in western Ukraine, who hold positions in the new government. There could also be international repercussions. Western powers have strongly condemned the Crimea takeover. Nato is unlikely to react militarily, but is beefing up air force cover in the Baltic republics, warning of increased Russian military activity in the enclave of Kaliningrad.

The US and EU are considering sanctions, but President Putin may believe that they will not last - as was the case during the Georgian war".

My issue is that the fact that Ultra-Nationalists have gained power and is not headlined in the papers as a major problem with the new Ukraine Government. Also France, Greece and the Netherlands have all got strong Nationalist politicians gaining power.

This to me is a massive worry and horrifically similar to 1930s Europe.

 

[Brill]

Post

Would this be the first President to send KC-135s and C-130s in order to demonstrate resolve and commitment?

 

[Robal2pl]

Current news here say about 12 F-16s in Poland, 300 Airmen will arrive in Monday.

http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,15580214,Amerykanskie_samoloty_w_Polsce.html (Polish only)

DoD news relase says about supporting NATO Air Policing (it's US shift now)

http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121785

But as close as it os to Poland i feel quite calm. It was thing waiting to happen. When USSR was over, all republics became "nation" states, in many cases it was hardly regardless of any ethnical groups. That was the case of 2008 war in Ossetia - in fact there are to Ossetias, one after 1991 was Russian province, second was part of Georgia...that triggered long lasting conflict. Abkhazia, Transnistria etc - still the same old story.

 

[DA SWO]

Would this be the first President to send KC-135s and C-130s in order to demonstrate resolve and commitment?

No, I remember a KC-10/RC-135 deployment as a show of resolve (though it did get much bigger).

 

[TLDR20]

I hope we don't get involved.none of our business.

 

[pardus]

I hope we don't get involved.none of our business.

I kind of agree but we do have agreements with the Ukraine over this exact thing. I doubt we'll do anything regardless, then again I also doubted we'd be stupid enough to want to intervene in Syria too...

 

[TLDR20]

I kind of agree but we do have agreements with the Ukraine over this exact thing. I doubt we'll do anything regardless, then again I also doubted we'd be stupid enough to want to intervene in Syria too...

We didn't get involved in Syria because other better options presented themselves. I for one am done getting involved in regional squabbles or other countries civil wars. We have no obligation to come running every time someone gets their feelings hurt or their peepee's slapped. I don't give a shit if Russia takes over the whole Ukraine, not at all. Is the juice worth the squeeze? Not for me, not one bit. I also don't buy that this somehow reflects on our status as a superpower. It is a territorial dispute that we should have no part of.


I'm no expert, and don't claim to be, but to me this whole mess seems overblown.

 

[pardus]

We didn't get involved in Syria because other better options presented themselves. I for one am done getting involved in regional squabbles or other countries civil wars. We have no obligation to come running every time someone gets their feelings hurt or their peepee's slapped. I don't give a shit if Russia takes over the whole Ukraine, not at all. Is the juice worth the squeeze? Not for me, not one bit. I also don't buy that this somehow reflects on our status as a superpower. It is a territorial dispute that we should have no part of.


I'm no expert, and don't claim to be, but to me this whole mess seems overblown.

Thanks to a foreign power, we acted like idiots in Syria.

I do agree with you about Ukraine, but like I said, we have given our word that we would help them if this scenario happen to/in the Ukraine.

 

[TLDR20]

Thanks to a foreign power, we acted like idiots in Syria.

I do agree with you about Ukraine, but like I said, we have given our word that we would help them if this scenario happen to/in the Ukraine.

Wasn't the agreement with the previous government?

 

[SpitfireV]

That doesn't matter.