The Afghanistan and Pakistan Thread

[Marauder06]

It doesn't matter what we do, it doesn't matter what the Afghans do, war will always exist in AFG so long as PK exists. "A-dub this is your typical hardline, anti-PK rhetoric we've heard for years. You're a broken record, be realistic."

I am. PK is the reason AFG is a destabilized mess and has been LONG before we arrived. PK is a known supporter of the Taliban and a known supporter of the Haqqanis, which makes them a known supporter of terrorist groups. The effects of a friendly border on insurgencies are well known and documented. The notion that we can negotiate with PK to eradicate the TB safe haven(s) is folly. Asking them to kill their fellow Muslims (Pashtuns, family) is laughable. It will never happen to the degree which is required.

Unless we're willing to invade a nuclear-armed country, we need to leave AFG.

Concur. The war in Afghanistan isn’t in Afghanistan, it’s in Pakistan. We bribe those folks with a bajillion dollars annually in foreign aid and their intel service active works against us.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

Concur. The war in Afghanistan isn’t in Afghanistan, it’s in Pakistan. We bribe those folks with a bajillion dollars annually in foreign aid and their intel service active works against us.

Considering PK's agricultural industry is dependent on western ag tech and knowledge, we can always cut them off there. If PK can't grow cotton, they can't fund their government. Like all historically utilized agricultural land, PK's soil health is in tatters and reliant on western tech, fertilizers, and seed. Considering PK's main exports are cotton and cotton based products, they're fucked if we decide to pull agricultural support (which we should).

The other thing that can hurt PK is banning their exchange students from US universities; especially those in fields relating to environmental remediation, engineering, and anything agricultural/plant science related. Good luck generating ag based goods with a (historically) heavily degraded biosphere and no knowledge to stop it.

 

[RackMaster]

Pull out the region, full blockade on PK, give all funding to India and let them finish the job. The whole AO ends up a nuke wasteland and we all go get ice cream.

 

[MikeDelta]

Pull out the region, full blockade on PK, give all funding to India and let them finish the job. The whole AO ends up a nuke wasteland and we all go get ice cream.

I want sprinkles on mine...and I never get sprinkles

 

[RackMaster]

I want sprinkles on mine...and I never get sprinkles

Sprinkles and then chocolate dip...

 

[MikeDelta]

Considering PK's agricultural industry is dependent on western ag tech and knowledge, we can always cut them off there. If PK can't grow cotton, they can't fund their government. Like all historically utilized agricultural land, PK's soil health is in tatters and reliant on western tech, fertilizers, and seed. Considering PK's main exports are cotton and cotton based products, they're fucked if we decide to pull agricultural support (which we should).

The other thing that can hurt PK is banning their exchange students from US universities; especially those in fields relating to environmental remediation, engineering, and anything agricultural/plant science related. Good luck generating ag based goods with a (historically) heavily degraded biosphere and no knowledge to stop it.

Thanks for the insightful post, great site work as well. It would have to be a coalition ban on exchange students though, otherwise they would just go to the UK or EU. I can only imagine the politicing that would go up against this type of sanction/warfare.

 

[SpongeBob*24]

Everything Tibet east to Nepal drains into India (Ganges maybe can't remember)....Everything Tibet west to Kabul drains into Pakistan (Indus).


Get what I'm saying.......

 

[Gunz]

Pull out the region, full blockade on PK, give all funding to India and let them finish the job. The whole AO ends up a nuke wasteland and we all go get ice cream.

I'm all for that.

Obviously the status quo in Afghanistan is not going to change. No matter what we do, as @AWP has pointed out, no matter how we approach it tactically, it's a fucking sinkhole. We've got thousands of SF/SOF units and advisory people there risking death and dismemberment every day for nothing.

Karzai was right about the one thing he kept insisting to the Americans: Why do you keep fighting here when the war is in Pakistan?

 

[Topkick]

Obviously the status quo in Afghanistan is not going to change

Says everyone in history.

 

[Gunz]

Says everyone in history.

To be more specific, it's not going to change as long as the Paks continue to aid and subsidize the Taliban and the Haqqani's and give them safe haven. I don't see them turning their back on the monster they created and have nurtured for decades. Not without a major internal upheaval or, as @RackMaster suggests, the Indians annihilate the whole fucking shitshow.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

Thanks for the insightful post, great site work as well. It would have to be a coalition ban on exchange students though, otherwise they would just go to the UK or EU. I can only imagine the politicing that would go up against this type of sanction/warfare.

Thanks dude. Most of it was just the application of the archaeology behind failed agrarian societies in the SW United States. The rest of the post was some lazy googling. For the most part, agrarian based cultures are very susceptible to weather and soil conditions. Intensive farming, over a long period of time, also tends to degrade soils to the point of infertility. Since cotton is a resource intensive crop to grow, it only makes sense that PK's land is on chemical life support.

PK's strength is it's ability to produce food and fiber (for SE asia). For the most part, PK has no material or cultural resources worthy of export or exploitation.

Everything Tibet east to Nepal drains into India (Ganges maybe can't remember)....Everything Tibet west to Kabul drains into Pakistan (Indus).


Get what I'm saying.......

This! Geographically, PK's most productive land is in a giant floodplain. The Indus is the lifeblood of PK, diverting it's headwaters would literally turn PK into a giant dust bowl. The devastation, behind a diverted Indus, would be biblical. Like, old testament wrath of god stuff.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

To be more specific, it's not going to change as long as the Paks continue to aid and subsidize the Taliban and the Haqqani's and give them safe haven. I don't see them turning their back on the monster they created and have nurtured for decades. Not without a major internal upheaval or, as @RackMaster suggests, the Indians annihilate the whole fucking shitshow.

If we can break the back of PK's agricultural based economy, they won't be able to fund a darn thing. Nukes or not, create enough hunger and the dogs created by Pk will turn their teeth on them.

 

[Marauder06]

If we pull out and sent PK into an economic tailspin it will probably be worse for us in the long run. Islamists, China, and Iran would step into the gap, there would be millions more displaced people and refugees, and PK would probably start another war with India in order to hold onto power.

I would be quite happy to completely abandon both AF and PK if the end result want probably going to worse for us in the long run.

That’s part of what makes this such a wicked problem.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

If we pull out and sent PK into an economic tailspin it will probably be worse for us in the long run. Islamists, China, and Iran would step into the gap, there would be millions more displaced people and refugees, and PK would probably start another war with India in order to hold onto power.

I would be quite happy to completely abandon both AF and PK if the end result want probably going to worse for us in the long run.

That’s part of what makes this such a wicked problem.

I dunno, maybe. I know that PK would be a rich prize (arable land) for any of the parties mentioned. Probably why Pakistan keeps trying to expand and has created such a mess for us in Afghanistan. As long as we keep our noses out of it, the best case for the world is a fractured and divided Pakistan. Without the Indus, PK is little better than a vast wasteland.

 

[MikeDelta]

Thanks dude. Most of it was just the application of the archaeology behind failed agrarian societies in the SW United States. The rest of the post was some lazy googling. For the most part, agrarian based cultures are very susceptible to weather and soil conditions. Intensive farming, over a long period of time, also tends to degrade soils to the point of infertility. Since cotton is a resource intensive crop to grow, it only makes sense that PK's land is on chemical life support.

PK's strength is it's ability to produce food and fiber (for SE asia). For the most part, PK has no material or cultural resources worthy of export or exploitation.

This! Geographically, PK's most productive land is in a giant floodplain. The Indus is the lifeblood of PK, diverting it's headwaters would literally turn PK into a giant dust bowl. The devastation, behind a diverted Indus, would be biblical. Like, old testament wrath of god stuff.

That is some Kit Carson scorched earth Indian War kind of stuff

 

[MikeDelta]

If we pull out and sent PK into an economic tailspin it will probably be worse for us in the long run. Islamists, China, and Iran would step into the gap, there would be millions more displaced people and refugees, and PK would probably start another war with India in order to hold onto power.

I would be quite happy to completely abandon both AF and PK if the end result want probably going to worse for us in the long run.

That’s part of what makes this such a wicked problem.

Hmmmm, good point. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction...

 

[Gunz]

PK and the PRC are comfortably in bed together with economic, military and nuclear aid. It's cozy as hell and meant to counter the US-India relationship. It also gives the PRC an inroad into the Muslim world.

As @Marauder06 has pointed out, the PRC is more than prepared to fill any vacuum in Pakistan. That would include, I think, @R.Caerbannog, any agricultural support withdrawn from the US.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

PK and the PRC are comfortably in bed together with economic, military and nuclear aid. It's cozy as hell and meant to counter the US-India relationship. It also gives the PRC an inroad into the Muslim world.

As @Marauder06 has pointed out, the PRC is more than prepared to fill any vacuum in Pakistan. That would include, I think, @R.Caerbannog, any agricultural support withdrawn from the US.

I agree that to a certain extent the PRC will try to fill the ag-tech void in PK when we leave. Problem for the Chinese, is that they're having issues with their own agricultural technologies. They can't even grow enough rice for themselves and that's with the PRC using GMO's developed in-house or stolen.

Western agricultural innovation and technology have been lynchpins in keeping PK's and the PRC's agricultural machine running. If PK and China lose our ag tech and expertise, they won't be able to function like they have. Hence why the elite, of both shitholes, send their spoiled brats to western colleges and universities.

 

[Florida173]

PRC has their own Muslims.. Not doing all that well

 

[AWP]

China's interest in PK is nothing more than a hedge against a strengthened India; Muslims don't factor into the relationship. China needs to offset its regional economic and military adversary. PK can use China to ward off any threat from India or the US. A solid strategic move by both countries.

As much as I'd like to see PK eradicated from the map and confined to the dustbin of history, it isn't happening.