The Artificial Intelligence Problem (or not)

[r.nitrogen]

Why do you think those in the field of Machine Learning and AI (maybe some robotics engineers) feel the need to implement such vast and far-reaching neural networks of machines, data mining databases and continue to research the breakthrough in Artificial Consciousness? The computer, robots, advanced specialized supercomputers -- these are awe-inspiring modern wonders of the world. Everyone knows Excel sucks, and entering data is like the 4th or so rung of hell. But, with a simply scripting language like Python and a list of the data we want logically compiled, we can make a machine do all that dirty work in under 1 minute. Maybe to some, enough is enough is defeatist on its face, or maybe trust in the TelCo monopolies and DARPA and Catholics in Action are obscure enough for most of the world that nobody looks into the investments that In-Q-Tel (it's an Elon Musk startup for those of you who don't know- it builds MagLev neo-titanium textiles) has been making in regards to AI and in particular to Palantir, Invacio, and the especially disturbing startups like AZte Vision.

Maybe I'm being reactionary. It could be argued that despite having studied Computer Science and InfoSec at high levels, I am perhaps bitter that I never got a doctorate in robotics or BioTech. I just think that when we are working towards creating what could effectively be as all-knowing as God, as "logical" as Stalin or Mao and as unlimited in reach as our very farthest space exploration vessels, we might need to say that the edge that would be given to us in economic standing or in Cyber Warfare is little gain for a potential extinction-level event.

I would love to hear your take on this, as many of you work in these higher-level, more clandestine technology sectors. I'm not a moron asking for some sweet gossip, just a view on AI, machines and war/civvie applications.

 

[4859]

I'm not worried about as something as fantastical as an extinction level event.

It's a classic creative destruction problem (New creations destroy old jobs that are now obsolete), similar to plenty that have happened in the past since the industrial revolution (and before of course) with one key difference.

In times past the costs of the destruction of the old obsolete industries by being replaced by newer better faster and cheaper methods were not only offset, but surpassed by utilizing freed up human resources to be deployed elsewhere, in the new job markets and demands created by the new industry/method.

With ai, you just have robots doing the same job, with little to no new jobs being created by them, particularly when compared to the amount of jobs destroyed by them.

When the horseshoe smith became obsolete because of the automobile, there was a huge new market for all things automobile. One that rapidly grew much larger and employed many more people than the previous industry

When the 8 million human US truck drivers are replaced by the ai self driving semis....

That's it. There is no new industry created by that that's going to need 10, 15, 20 million workers.

 

[Ranger Psych]

When the 8 million human US truck drivers are replaced by the ai self driving semis....

Full. Fucking. Stop.

Everyone that thinks that AI trucks are going to magically take away jobs in the trucking industry is deluded.

Lemme break this down two times. First for dry van or refrigerated rolling up to/from walmart. Let's see if ya'll can identify where the human quotient in the equation is an absofuckingtootly necessary portion of the mystery mix getting your random bullshit from the random manufacturers to the random locations you buy/use/need/want/musthaverightfuckingnow...

Show up with empty trailer on time or earlier at a location you can't park inside so you're violating no parking zones with a goddamn big rig
check in with human who may/may not be at the desk so your time is wasted
move through yard dodging other truckers whos skill levels/competence/coherence vary greatly
open doors of trailer
back into assigned specific dock
put chock on, remove air line
sit monitoring for a green light to turn red, meaning you're being loaded
wait for red to turn green, at which point you pull out and depending on location now you either
check in with the office to get the specific paperwork and serialized seal related to your cargo
check the back of the trailer for said paperwork and seal
check with the dude that comes and tells you they're done in the trailer
unchock, replace air line
pull out
inspect cargo for proper securement according to cargo type
inspect paperwork and air gauges for proper weight and balance on vehicle AND RAISE HELL IF WRONG
apply proper securement if more is necessary for proper transit/unloading safety
close doors and apply seal(s)
leave location

go crosscountry moving shit

Arrive at location exactly on time, no sooner no later because they're kicking you off property if you're too early or late
Check in with guards that don't give a fuck about you because you ain't walmart, they check your identification, truck number, trailer number, bills, seal number, shoe size and blood type
drive to secondary staging dodging yard spotters doing 30mph more than your 15mph yard limit oh and they have right of way
check your ass in with the shipping department, oh yeah that time spent in guard checkin doesn't count as being checked in, the time matters here
put the loaded trailer in the area specified
Physically FIND an empty trailer they may or may not have actually assigned you and may or may not actually be residing in the area that they are supposed to and may or may not actually even be empty
hook to said trailer
go back and check in with shipping regarding your empty trailer number
move to guard shack for guard inspection of trailer to ensure you aren't leaving with anything you're not supposed to
on to the next episode

There's a whole lotta human touches there that the shipper and receiver are not going to touch as a pretty basic rule, as they all fall under transport of the cargo, which is the responsibility of the company and more specifically the drivers of that company as they are the ones that will be subject to random inspections for weight/safety. The onus for anything wrong with that cargo is on the trucking company, anything wrong with the truck or trailer(s), anything wrong with the paperwork or permitting. All of these things have to be confirmed by a human who's actually involved with the shipment and knows the regulations. It's not like a DOT cop is going to ticket the SHIPPER for packaging hazmat incorrectly, it's going to be the company transporting it.

Now let's do the holy grail of "fuck skynet" aka open deck aka flatbed work... what I do for a living now.

Show up at appropriate location at appropriate time
Park truck
Confirm cargo to be loaded with onsite people
confirm cargo weight
confirm cargo loading order/configuration
confirm cargo is safe to carry
manipulate various trailer controls to put it into loading configuration
deploy multiple ramps to be able to load said cargo
drive cargo onto trailer where appropriate
stow ramps
supervise safe and proper loading/placement of additional cargo on trailer
check air gauges for weight distribution and legality of transit
determine off cargo weight and placement what type and amount of securement is necessary for safe transit
determine off cargo weight distribution and states to be traveled through, what configuration trailer needs to be in for safe and legal transit
throw straps over cargo
throw chains over cargo
apply appropriate protection means between straps, chains, and cargo to protect both from damage
hook straps to trailer
winch straps down
hook chains to appropriate tiedown points on trailer
hook chains to appropriate tiedown points on cargo
use appropriate securement devices to secure chains depending on cargo type
tighten chains
unfold tarps on cargo
secure tarps to trailer in appropriate configuration
confirm paperwork is correct for cargo amount/type
depart down the road
stop within 50 miles and check every single securement used as well as cargo to determine if securement is safe/adequate or if more is needed
adjust securement as necessary
add securement as necessary
add protection as necessary for securement/cargo
continue driving
stop within 3 hours/150 miles and recheck
continue until at delivery site at appropriate time/place, having confirmed delivery time/place while enroute as it can/does change
place vehicle in appropriate location
deploy ramps
undo and stow all securement
supervise unloading of cargo
conduct unloading of cargo needing operation
stow ramps
depart to next job

Sorry, but AI ain't gonna do these examples of my bread and butter unless you have a Golem 25 rocking it outside the vehicle.

 

[DC]

RP must be a trucker. I agree a lot of tasks that require human accomplishments. What about an AI driver and a human assistant? Maybe even an AI codriver while on the road to get beyond the mandatory stop meter. I think that would be more logical...to start.

 

[medicchick]

RP must be a trucker. I agree a lot of tasks that require human accomplishments. What about an AI driver and a human assistant? Maybe even an AI codriver while on the road to get beyond the mandatory stop meter. I think that would be more logical...to start.

Only if every vehicle is AI driven. Add one 4 wheeler driver and the stupid shit they do in and you can't program for that. You just plan you driving out to get the load where it needs to be when it needs to be there.

Oh and fuck tarps.

 

[medicchick]

Well then maybe they have their own route like toll roads. Call it AI only.

Who is going to pay for it, enforce it and maintain it?

 

[4859]

Full. Fucking. Stop.

Everyone that thinks that AI trucks are going to magically take away jobs in the trucking industry is deluded.

Lemme break this down two times. First for dry van or refrigerated rolling up to/from walmart. Let's see if ya'll can identify where the human quotient in the equation is an absofuckingtootly necessary portion of the mystery mix getting your random bullshit from the random manufacturers to the random locations you buy/use/need/want/musthaverightfuckingnow...

Show up with empty trailer on time or earlier at a location you can't park inside so you're violating no parking zones with a goddamn big rig
check in with human who may/may not be at the desk so your time is wasted
move through yard dodging other truckers whos skill levels/competence/coherence vary greatly
open doors of trailer
back into assigned specific dock
put chock on, remove air line
sit monitoring for a green light to turn red, meaning you're being loaded
wait for red to turn green, at which point you pull out and depending on location now you either
check in with the office to get the specific paperwork and serialized seal related to your cargo
check the back of the trailer for said paperwork and seal
check with the dude that comes and tells you they're done in the trailer
unchock, replace air line
pull out
inspect cargo for proper securement according to cargo type
inspect paperwork and air gauges for proper weight and balance on vehicle AND RAISE HELL IF WRONG
apply proper securement if more is necessary for proper transit/unloading safety
close doors and apply seal(s)
leave location

go crosscountry moving shit

Arrive at location exactly on time, no sooner no later because they're kicking you off property if you're too early or late
Check in with guards that don't give a fuck about you because you ain't walmart, they check your identification, truck number, trailer number, bills, seal number, shoe size and blood type
drive to secondary staging dodging yard spotters doing 30mph more than your 15mph yard limit oh and they have right of way
check your ass in with the shipping department, oh yeah that time spent in guard checkin doesn't count as being checked in, the time matters here
put the loaded trailer in the area specified
Physically FIND an empty trailer they may or may not have actually assigned you and may or may not actually be residing in the area that they are supposed to and may or may not actually even be empty
hook to said trailer
go back and check in with shipping regarding your empty trailer number
move to guard shack for guard inspection of trailer to ensure you aren't leaving with anything you're not supposed to
on to the next episode

There's a whole lotta human touches there that the shipper and receiver are not going to touch as a pretty basic rule, as they all fall under transport of the cargo, which is the responsibility of the company and more specifically the drivers of that company as they are the ones that will be subject to random inspections for weight/safety. The onus for anything wrong with that cargo is on the trucking company, anything wrong with the truck or trailer(s), anything wrong with the paperwork or permitting. All of these things have to be confirmed by a human who's actually involved with the shipment and knows the regulations. It's not like a DOT cop is going to ticket the SHIPPER for packaging hazmat incorrectly, it's going to be the company transporting it.

Now let's do the holy grail of "fuck skynet" aka open deck aka flatbed work... what I do for a living now.

Show up at appropriate location at appropriate time
Park truck
Confirm cargo to be loaded with onsite people
confirm cargo weight
confirm cargo loading order/configuration
confirm cargo is safe to carry
manipulate various trailer controls to put it into loading configuration
deploy multiple ramps to be able to load said cargo
drive cargo onto trailer where appropriate
stow ramps
supervise safe and proper loading/placement of additional cargo on trailer
check air gauges for weight distribution and legality of transit
determine off cargo weight and placement what type and amount of securement is necessary for safe transit
determine off cargo weight distribution and states to be traveled through, what configuration trailer needs to be in for safe and legal transit
throw straps over cargo
throw chains over cargo
apply appropriate protection means between straps, chains, and cargo to protect both from damage
hook straps to trailer
winch straps down
hook chains to appropriate tiedown points on trailer
hook chains to appropriate tiedown points on cargo
use appropriate securement devices to secure chains depending on cargo type
tighten chains
unfold tarps on cargo
secure tarps to trailer in appropriate configuration
confirm paperwork is correct for cargo amount/type
depart down the road
stop within 50 miles and check every single securement used as well as cargo to determine if securement is safe/adequate or if more is needed
adjust securement as necessary
add securement as necessary
add protection as necessary for securement/cargo
continue driving
stop within 3 hours/150 miles and recheck
continue until at delivery site at appropriate time/place, having confirmed delivery time/place while enroute as it can/does change
place vehicle in appropriate location
deploy ramps
undo and stow all securement
supervise unloading of cargo
conduct unloading of cargo needing operation
stow ramps
depart to next job

Sorry, but AI ain't gonna do these examples of my bread and butter unless you have a Golem 25 rocking it outside the vehicle.

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RP must be a trucker. I agree a lot of tasks that require human accomplishments. What about an AI driver and a human assistant? Maybe even an AI codriver while on the road to get beyond the mandatory stop meter. I think that would be more logical...to start.

Do you really think they are going to pay the human assistant ie the truck babysitter anywhere near as much as they pay a highly skilled, experienced professional like RB?

And unfortunately I don't see the vast majority of what rp brought up requiring a driver.

They are either already easily capable of current automation technology, or easily replaceable through much cheaper ground labor at the stops.


These companies wouldn't be spending millions, and have investors pumping millions Into them if they didn't think they'd be able to sell their shit.

And the main draw of the self driving truck, is getting rid of the cost of employing the highly and specifically skilled rp's of the world.

 

[medicchick]

RP= Ranger Psych
RB=Razorback, a different member

How can an AI do a load check? It is a federal requirement to do them at specific times. Cheaper ground labor at the stops? Do you have any idea what lumpers charge now to just run a pallet jack? Add in the hours it can take to secure and tarp a load and you are talking hundreds of dollars for only a few trucks a day. A local siding company processes ~50 trucks a day, all tarped load. Tarping takes between 1-3 hours depending on the load. It's not quick or easy, each one weighs around 100 pounds and trailers take 2 with loads being 8 feet high (hence the fuck tarps). If you don't secure them properly and check them while driving you can destroy them at a cost of $400+ each. Local labor isn't going to care, they are having to mule several of them around everyday now.

Everything RP mentioned is what a driver has to do now. It's not just driving from point A to point B, especially with open deck. If a load is wrong who do you blame, the AI driver or the ground crew hundreds or thousands of miles away? Driver check everything before they leave.

 

[medicchick]

Who pays for toll roads, infrastructure now? Taxes. Not a new novel idea really. Enforcement? Cameras are used widely for toll roads.
Truckers now pay more taxes and fees than ever. Then we allow trucks from mexico freely use our roads without paying anything. I digress.

Oh I know how.much tolls for trucks cost. There is a reason certain states are avoided. One state just raised the toll for trucks only by over 30%. Cars don't have to pay anymore. But you want to charge people MORE for a road they will never be able to use (what I meant by enforcement, can't have cars in the AI only road)? Lets see how that goes over...

 

[4859]

RP= Ranger Psych
RB=Razorback, a different member

How can an AI do a load check? It is a federal requirement to do them at specific times. Cheaper ground labor at the stops? Do you have any idea what lumpers charge now to just run a pallet jack? Add in the hours it can take to secure and tarp a load and you are talking hundreds of dollars for only a few trucks a day. A local siding company processes ~50 trucks a day, all tarped load. Tarping takes between 1-3 hours depending on the load. It's not quick or easy, each one weighs around 100 pounds and trailers take 2 with loads being 8 feet high (hence the fuck tarps). If you don't secure them properly and check them while driving you can destroy them at a cost of $400+ each. Local labor isn't going to care, they are having to mule several of them around everyday now.

Everything RP mentioned is what a driver has to do now. It's not just driving from point A to point B, especially with open deck. If a load is wrong who do you blame, the AI driver or the ground crew hundreds or thousands of miles away? Driver check everything before they leave.

Argh you caught It! Damn you autocorrect!

A constant Wi-Fi signal can send continuous data about the truck like it's weight for monitoring.

They will only really care about wrong loads, if it ends up costing them more money than getting rid of the rp's would save them.

Regulations are only A lobbying push away from being deregulated.

 

[DC]

RP= Ranger Psych
RB=Razorback, a different member

How can an AI do a load check? It is a federal requirement to do them at specific times. Cheaper ground labor at the stops? Do you have any idea what lumpers charge now to just run a pallet jack? Add in the hours it can take to secure and tarp a load and you are talking hundreds of dollars for only a few trucks a day. A local siding company processes ~50 trucks a day, all tarped load. Tarping takes between 1-3 hours depending on the load. It's not quick or easy, each one weighs around 100 pounds and trailers take 2 with loads being 8 feet high (hence the fuck tarps). If you don't secure them properly and check them while driving you can destroy them at a cost of $400+ each. Local labor isn't going to care, they are having to mule several of them around everyday now.

Everything RP mentioned is what a driver has to do now. It's not just driving from point A to point B, especially with open deck. If a load is wrong who do you blame, the AI driver or the ground crew hundreds or thousands of miles away? Driver check everything before they leave.

Like I suggested a human assistant and believe technology is going to progress in ever facet as well. We can fight it, not believe it or whatever but the future is coming faster than we think. I grew up without microwaves, cell phones, computers and electric cars...

 

[medicchick]

Argh you caught It! Damn you autocorrect!

A constant Wi-Fi signal can send continuous data about the truck like it's weight for monitoring.

They will only really care about wrong loads, if it ends up costing them more money than getting rid of the rp's would save them.

Regulations are only A lobbying push away from being deregulated.

A load check isn't about weight though it's about checking the securement to make sure your load isn't going anywhere. You should also be checking tires while stopped.

 

[DC]

Oh I know how.much tolls for trucks cost. There is a reason certain states are avoided. One state just raised the toll for trucks only by over 30%. Cars don't have to pay anymore. But you want to charge people MORE for a road they will never be able to use (what I meant by enforcement, can't have cars in the AI only road)? Lets see how that goes over...

No cars? Easy. Automatic huge fines via plate cam directly to your bank account, vehicle registration, etc.

 

[medicchick]

No cars? Easy. Automatic huge fines via plate cam directly to your bank account, vehicle registration, etc.

Great in theory but I was surprised at the number of cars out there with no plates at all. Add in the fact that fine or no they are in the AI road which circles back to unpredictable 4 wheelers and all cars needing to be AI. I know it has it's place but starting the the vehicles most likely to kill someone they hit is not the place. Work up to them...

 

[medicchick]

We have TPI in vehicles. Loads can be sensor equipped to notify of issues. I’ve seen it done on rockets and satellites. Right now it’s cost. Someday could be.

How does that physically check straps for wear or tighten them? How can it see the load has shifted and needs more securement thrown? Ever carried a load if round steel? It's hinky as shit and you have to be very careful.

 

[DC]

Great in theory but I was surprised at the number of cars out there with no plates at all. Add in the fact that fine or no they are in the AI road which circles back to unpredictable 4 wheelers and all cars needing to be AI. I know it has it's place but starting the the vehicles most likely to kill someone they hit is not the place. Work up to them...

Then engine shutdown technology and driver take over. Remember as AI begins in one arena it will spread to others.

 

[4859]

A load check isn't about weight though it's about checking the securement to make sure your load isn't going anywhere. You should also be checking tires while stopped.

Also easily done 'good enough' via sensors in the cargo area.

You guys seem to be hung up on the fact that it's not going to be as good, or even anywhere near as good as the real deal.

Of course it's not. Never has been. ESPECIALLY not when it first starts. It's cheaper, faster and brings in more profit with less overhead. And that's what matters to them. Not RP feeding his family

 

[DC]

How does that physically check straps for wear or tighten them? How can it see the load has shifted and needs more securement thrown? Ever carried a load if round steel? It's hinky as shit and you have to be very careful.

I am very familiar with what are saying as for loads go. Again technology with figure it out. There are self tightening mechanisms. Maybe an block system to correct load shift. Who knows? I’m saying someday all this will come to pass. Unless Ragnarok happens first

 

[medicchick]

Then engine shutdown technology and driver take over. Remember as AI begins in one arena it will spread to others.

In your scenario you still have a driver, in the other just local workers who loaded it. You are talking teaming with an AI truck, not 100% replacement.

I'm not stubborn or stupid, I know AI is the future but so many out there want to have it now without thinking it through. I have appreciated the civil debate however, other forums it degrades to kindergarten level fingers in ears because AI is the bestest ever and it means I can never leave my chair...lol There is no current good answer but seeing what is tossed around is fun.

 

[DC]

In your scenario you still have a driver, in the other just local workers who loaded it. You are talking teaming with an AI truck, not 100% replacement.

I'm not stubborn or stupid, I know AI is the future but so many out there want to have it now without thinking it through. I have appreciated the civil debate however, other forums it degrades to kindergarten level fingers in ears...lol

Humans will always be involved somewhere. We are a very greedy organism. Our lust for power pushes us to it. The future will be really rich and really poor. Don’t forget humanity is impatient. They want it now for power. They can have it.

PS @medicchick your are far from stupid...stubborn aren’t we all