I'd love to go back and frankly the G5 Sahel and French are losing badly to JNIM. That's for another topic though.
It'll be interesting to watch the traditional alliances shift in favor of an Arab-Israeli coalition against Iran and other actors..
The Israel / Palestine Thread
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It'll be interesting to watch the traditional alliances shift in favor of an Arab-Israeli coalition against Iran and other actors..
Locksteady
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Yes, and I think it will also be interesting to see the extent to which other NENA countries ignore UAE's pivot and drift further away from normalizing relations with Israel - especially those sharing a common enemy with Israel in Iran.
@Marauder06 I know this is a little gauche but....told ya' so!
I can't wait for Harris-Biden to fuck this up. I am dead serious. The only way they don't is if they can spin it to their advantage and yes, I am next level cynical.
Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates.
There aren't many MENA nations left to ignore the UAE pivot. Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, and Syria (probably add Libya and Kuwait) won't follow the UAE and others, but the rest will fall in line or are non-events. Some of the players above could come into the fold in upcoming years (Algeria and Libya).
More importantly, this is as much about real estate as it is anything else: location, location, location. Once Saudi and Oman join up (inevitable in my opinion), you'll have most of the Arabian Gulf nations onboard. You'll also have substantially-sized militaries in Egypt and Jordan who even if they don't take up arms against Iran, they won't join a fight either.
Funny how we've discussed an anti-China NATO-esque organization...the anti-Iran coalition seems to be forming up quite well.
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Cynical world view/ conspiracy theory time: I've long said Saudi approved all of this...what if it instigated the pro-Israel pivot? Have smaller Islamic nations sign the Abraham Accords so Saudi can judge the reactions of its citizens and the world's? Now you have it "leak" that you could sign by the end of 2021...let it marinate and see what happens. A litmus test. You have Trump take point on "negotiating the deal" so as to hide your role in aligning with the hated Jews.
I can't wait for Harris-Biden to fuck this up. I am dead serious. The only way they don't is if they can spin it to their advantage and yes, I am next level cynical.
I had to look up MENA countries. The Bold have already normalized relations w/ Israel.
Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates.
There aren't many MENA nations left to ignore the UAE pivot. Iraq, Yemen, Qatar, and Syria (probably add Libya and Kuwait) won't follow the UAE and others, but the rest will fall in line or are non-events. Some of the players above could come into the fold in upcoming years (Algeria and Libya).
More importantly, this is as much about real estate as it is anything else: location, location, location. Once Saudi and Oman join up (inevitable in my opinion), you'll have most of the Arabian Gulf nations onboard. You'll also have substantially-sized militaries in Egypt and Jordan who even if they don't take up arms against Iran, they won't join a fight either.
Funny how we've discussed an anti-China NATO-esque organization...the anti-Iran coalition seems to be forming up quite well.
---
Cynical world view/ conspiracy theory time: I've long said Saudi approved all of this...what if it instigated the pro-Israel pivot? Have smaller Islamic nations sign the Abraham Accords so Saudi can judge the reactions of its citizens and the world's? Now you have it "leak" that you could sign by the end of 2021...let it marinate and see what happens. A litmus test. You have Trump take point on "negotiating the deal" so as to hide your role in aligning with the hated Jews.
I'm glad I'm on vacation. It is always fun to be at work when we do stuff like this:
U.S. flies B-52 bombers over Persian Gulf as show of force against Iran
U.S. flies B-52 bombers over Persian Gulf as show of force against Iran
Anything can happen, especially with a new administration on the way in. But I'm guessing... none of them?
To add to AWP's post, Mauritania had formal relations with Israel until about ten years ago. They broke relations after Israel's 2009 Gaza op (and also after a coup in the country). Now that the bloom is off the Palestinian rose, and other Arab countries are making the change, I expect Mauritania would also be willing to come back around, especially if they want to continue to get that sweet, sweet US foreign aid. I can see Tunisia and Oman getting on board as well.
Libya, Qatar (maybe?), Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq will be tougher due to their relationships with Iran. The good news is, their relationships with Israel can't get much worse so it's hard to see how most of them would get "further away" simply because other Arab nations are getting closer.
At the end of the day, most of the most-influential Arab nations are getting behind the normalization efforts. The tide has shifted. It has been a long time coming, but one of the major reasons we are where we are in this moment is because of President Trump's bold decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem combined with his strong action against Iran. That gave other nations the last pieces of they needed to assemble their own policy to move in this direction.
Oh, for those of you old enough to remember the Cold War...
BET YOU MISS THAT MOTHERFUCKER NOW, HUH?
Kinda' wish we could send Trump back in time with some of that border wall money to help Gorby keep his maintained. Hell, if we're going to give PK money for "gender studies" then giving the East Germans the same to scrub the graffiti off of their wall is a bargain. Get Doc Brown and the DeLorean, I have solutions.
BET YOU MISS THAT MOTHERFUCKER NOW, HUH?
Kinda' wish we could send Trump back in time with some of that border wall money to help Gorby keep his maintained. Hell, if we're going to give PK money for "gender studies" then giving the East Germans the same to scrub the graffiti off of their wall is a bargain. Get Doc Brown and the DeLorean, I have solutions.
Locksteady
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ThunderHorse
Verified Military
If Biff was the billionaire rather than the windshield wax guy. Sure.
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ThunderHorse
Verified Military
I seriously can't read the liberal media takes on this, they're trashy as hell. So I'm just gonna go with Lindsey Graham's tweets.
Brill
SOF Support
What difference does it make?
A word on the Abraham Accords:
Something I have observed from my experiences, travels, and many relationships with Palestinians/Muslims/Arabs is the disconnect between what their governments accomplish versus what the "people" think and say. Angst and fury against Israel has only been growing, not dissipating. Sheiks and Imams are gearing up their flocks for yajuj w'majuj, "Gog and Magog". For those who skipped Sunday school, that is the giant shit sandwich that humanity will all take a bite of when apokálypsis occurs- lit. "uncovering".
Palestinian dogma is especially unique in this regard. Many imam's tell them that there are 72 groups of Muslims in the world and that 71 of these groups are kuffar- "infidels"- and that the Palestinians are the singular group that will attain salvation. Shi'a dogma has its own headspace for its end-of-the-world scenario and its just another freight train self-fulfilling its own train tracks towards prophesy. The common denominator of all these Islamic dogmas is that Jews will be the big bad wolf that needs to be slaughtered to bring peace to the world.
Historical tangent- its related, I swear!
Historically speaking, Islam was a religion that disdained government yet at the same time had and still has no concept of separation of Mosque and State. From its inception it placed an unrealistic ideal before society that precludes an "Islamic Government", yet instead of deal with the discrepancy Islam shattered itself to pieces in the disagreements that followed Mohammed's death. This wasn't just a Shi'a-Sunni split; myriads of religions and sects sprang up only to be crushed. When you add this paradigm to the social fabric of the Middle East- namely developed city-states enriched by trade routes- you get a situation where Muslim strongmen place themselves over pre-existing power structures and leech their resources from a suspicious and recalcitrant population.
These emirs did not recruit their power bases from this recalcitrant population. They purchased slaves, converted them to Islam, trained and educated them and employed them as heavy cavalry. This meant that an emir was almost wholly disconnected from his fiefdom. Because government and politics literally took place inside of the mosque, the fellahin and urbanite population only knew who was ruling them based on who the Imam blessed during the jumah, "Friday Prayers". This could change blindingly quickly.
Tangent over.
What all of this means is that these Abraham Accords, at least according to what I know and see, are the machinations of bribery and manipulation. I'm not saying it's a bad thing- fake allies are better than no allies. What I am suggesting is that these accords are actually super fucking dangerous because we are slipping more shooty guns and advanced machinery into the hands of governments that will most likely fall if true democracy actually happens in the Middle East. Egyptians voted in the Muslim Brotherhood, after all, when they had the chance given to them.
Something I have observed from my experiences, travels, and many relationships with Palestinians/Muslims/Arabs is the disconnect between what their governments accomplish versus what the "people" think and say. Angst and fury against Israel has only been growing, not dissipating. Sheiks and Imams are gearing up their flocks for yajuj w'majuj, "Gog and Magog". For those who skipped Sunday school, that is the giant shit sandwich that humanity will all take a bite of when apokálypsis occurs- lit. "uncovering".
Palestinian dogma is especially unique in this regard. Many imam's tell them that there are 72 groups of Muslims in the world and that 71 of these groups are kuffar- "infidels"- and that the Palestinians are the singular group that will attain salvation. Shi'a dogma has its own headspace for its end-of-the-world scenario and its just another freight train self-fulfilling its own train tracks towards prophesy. The common denominator of all these Islamic dogmas is that Jews will be the big bad wolf that needs to be slaughtered to bring peace to the world.
Historical tangent- its related, I swear!
Historically speaking, Islam was a religion that disdained government yet at the same time had and still has no concept of separation of Mosque and State. From its inception it placed an unrealistic ideal before society that precludes an "Islamic Government", yet instead of deal with the discrepancy Islam shattered itself to pieces in the disagreements that followed Mohammed's death. This wasn't just a Shi'a-Sunni split; myriads of religions and sects sprang up only to be crushed. When you add this paradigm to the social fabric of the Middle East- namely developed city-states enriched by trade routes- you get a situation where Muslim strongmen place themselves over pre-existing power structures and leech their resources from a suspicious and recalcitrant population.
These emirs did not recruit their power bases from this recalcitrant population. They purchased slaves, converted them to Islam, trained and educated them and employed them as heavy cavalry. This meant that an emir was almost wholly disconnected from his fiefdom. Because government and politics literally took place inside of the mosque, the fellahin and urbanite population only knew who was ruling them based on who the Imam blessed during the jumah, "Friday Prayers". This could change blindingly quickly.
Tangent over.
What all of this means is that these Abraham Accords, at least according to what I know and see, are the machinations of bribery and manipulation. I'm not saying it's a bad thing- fake allies are better than no allies. What I am suggesting is that these accords are actually super fucking dangerous because we are slipping more shooty guns and advanced machinery into the hands of governments that will most likely fall if true democracy actually happens in the Middle East. Egyptians voted in the Muslim Brotherhood, after all, when they had the chance given to them.
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Locksteady
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Do you think that Israel's interest in engaging potential trading opportunities superseded its concern about the dangers you mention in the last paragraph - perhaps something borne of its own projection of that potential danger to the nation - and if so, do you think it (the decision and/or the projection about the danger) reflects a critical oversight?
If it reflects a critical oversight, what do you think caused Israel to make it, and why?
Answered in a PM.
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To keep the thread moving and address at least part of this question, I will say that Israel is not a country that makes oversights easily.
The interesting thing about Israel is that they know everything. Mossad is one of the most voracious intelligence organizations in the world. Because of the international nature of Jewry, loyal agents are a dime a dozen. This has given Mossad an unparalleled edge in intelligence operations, and their signature is found in many of the strangest places.
What Israel does, at least geo-politically speaking, is a well-thought out path that considers intelligence that none of us will probably ever know.
That being said, the appearance of a thing doesn't truly entail its nature.
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I'm not going to address Israel specifically, because I think ODGreen is much better-suited to address that than I. As far as trade vs. security, I'm reminded of Economic Interdependence and the Trade Expectations Theory of International Relations. Basically, if countries think they're going to make a lot of money through each other in the future, the potential for conflict is lessened.
In more recent literature, there are insights such as this:
So, by taking an up-front security risk by promoting better trade, a country might make significant long-term security gains.
That's a solid take, no doubt about it. Since the mercantile class pulls so many strings, it is logical to assume they would at least attempt to pump the brakes on international conflict between their business partners.
Something that I learned, however, is that this isn't always the case.
Standard Oil: Axis Ally
Standard Oil was caught doing business with IG Farben before and during WWII. It was also common practice in Europe during the 17th and 18th centuries that bankers would finance both sides of a conflict. I will search for links to illuminate the latter claim.
edit: The Rothschild Gang: Shadow Conspiracy Or Rumor? edit: this is a Business Insider article, not alienabductionsandbigfoot.net. lol, ignore the title.
I think both paradigms are happening: tried and true mercantile ties throwing water on a conflict because of $$$, and nefarious mercantile ties that sell to the enemy because of $$$.
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