The Trump Presidency 2.0

[Marauder06]

I understand tariffs at only a very basic level.

What I don't get is, if the net negatives of us doing it to other people are so bad, why do so many other countries do it to us? I mean, it HAS to work at some level, for so many countries to do it, right?

 

[compforce]

Bah, this is pretty standard. A "hacker" breaks into a government or corporate network. The organization makes a big $ offer to the hacker to keep news of the breach silent and prevent their data from getting out. Then they hire the hacker for their cybersecurity department. Note that this doesn't apply to script kiddies, only the original hackers who are smart enough to tell the company "we got you" before anyone else. The entire cybersecurity industry was born in the 90's this way. I actually did something similar to my college back in the day leaving a text document on the admin's desktop with what I did, the steps to reproduce it, how to fix it and my contact info. He called me the next day to thank me.

 

[Ooh-Rah]

I have to keep reminding myself that she and her Administration would be worse than he and his. I guess.

I’m beginning to question whether I still believe that.

TLDR:
Tariffs and questionable appointments aside, his habit of firing anyone who does not pass his ‘loyalty test’ is ridiculously unnerving.
If the media is purposely using scare tactics to make me question my vote, they are succeeding.

 

[compforce]

I understand tariffs at only a very basic level.

What I don't get is, if the net negatives of us doing it to other people are so bad, why do so many other countries do it to us? I mean, it HAS to work at some level, for so many countries to do it, right?

The position is that we are incentivizing them to do business with other countries rather than the US. We basically gave up some of our leverage to get the cash. In the short term other countries will see boosts to their economies while the US will see a downturn. It's good for the little guy to inflate their revenue, but bad for the big guy because it incentivizes the little guys to do business with each other rather than with the big guy.

I personally subscribe to the other point of view. Yes, there will be short term turmoil while the world adjusts to the massive, rapid changes. But in a year or so, we will be stronger than ever as foreign companies put their manufacturing in the US to avoid the tariffs, resulting in job growth for US citizens and a massive capital influx into the economy (which incidentally will drive prices back down through cost reduction).

 

[Cookie_]

I understand tariffs at only a very basic level.

What I don't get is, if the net negatives of us doing it to other people are so bad, why do so many other countries do it to us? I mean, it HAS to work at some level, for so many countries to do it, right?

Most tarrifs work best when implemented for specific industries. We tarrif Chinese EVs so that American automakers can compete. We see similar things across other countries for similar industries.

The reason these tarrifs are causing concern is because the numbers aren't based on these countries actually having tariffs, but trade deficits. This tweet breaks it down pretty well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907559189234196942

The concern is that by tarrifing allies and non-antagnostic countries for essentially no reason, we're going to weaken our position as the world's #1 importer, I.E. why the dollar is the reserve currency.

China, South Korea, and Japan already working on trade agreements in anticipation of these tarrifs isn't a good thing for us.

 

[GOTWA]

I understand tariffs at only a very basic level.

What I don't get is, if the net negatives of us doing it to other people are so bad, why do so many other countries do it to us? I mean, it HAS to work at some level, for so many countries to do it, right?

I dropped my truck off with the mechanic this morning and I was informed that Ford has responded to the 25% tariffs by offering their vehicles at employee pricing. Is that employee pricing going to change following the tariffs? It didn't read that way. I've been looking at picking up a new Landcruiser so I decided to see where Toyota was at with it; they're going to eat the cost of the tariffs.

I’m beginning to question whether I still believe that.

TLDR:
Tariffs and questionable appointments aside, his habit of firing anyone who does not pass his ‘loyalty test’ is ridiculously unnerving.
If the media is purposely using scare tactics to make me question my vote, they are succeeding.

If you read all of the hysteria, things are often caveated with "could" as a fear motivator. Trump's tariffs 'could' end the world. Trump's decision to not back Ukraine 'could' start WW5. Trump's decision to higher Hegseth 'could' set the US back 47 years in the defense sector. Could could could; it's all for clicks. Hold strong. The truth is, NOBODY knows, which is why things are so turbulent at the moment. Some of our allies have bigger issues than tariffs, like the UK banning 'ninja' swords to combat knife crime. Canada continues to ban guns and will in-turn send confiscated weapons to Ukraine.

We're pushing towards the next world war and I don't think it matters who is in charge at this point. I think the only thing that changes with who's in charge is how ready we are and the day it starts.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Most tarrifs work best when implemented for specific industries. We tarrif Chinese EVs so that American automakers can compete. We see similar things across other countries for similar industries.

The reason these tarrifs are causing concern is because the numbers aren't based on these countries actually having tariffs, but trade deficits. This tweet breaks it down pretty well:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1907559189234196942

The concern is that by tarrifing allies and non-antagnostic countries for essentially no reason, we're going to weaken our position as the world's #1 importer, I.E. why the dollar is the reserve currency.

China, South Korea, and Japan already working on trade agreements in anticipation of these tarrifs isn't a good thing for us.

Honestly, trade deficit based tariffs are great. I don't know why people think that isn't a high level process. One of our biggest issues with say China is de minimis. Time for all your wives and girlfriends to start shopping at the Nordstrom Rack instead living on Shein. This doesn't affect most US Companies who have major manufacturing in China, but the Chinese companies doing drop ship to your house with their cheap crap? Yeah, no mas. You're gonna have to be like Nike and ship containers full of stuff and pay duties on them. The Chinese Oligarchs have been getting wealthy off our market for the last 8 years since e-commerce exploded. Time to tone that down. Will it change much? Unsure. But at least we'll end up with less trash in our country.

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Closes De Minimis Exemptions to Combat China’s Role in America’s Synthetic Opioid Crisis

Tariffs based on trade deficits is swinging a way bigger stick than one based as a retaliatory action. For certain things it will create re-investment into the American heartland. Make no mistake, NAFTA destroyed this countries middle class. They keep throwing charts at us telling us we're richer by saying if you make 100k you're not middle class. Have you seen what things cost?

ETA: Free Trade has destroyed a lot of craftsmanship which is one of the reasons why we ship these massive shows and movies off to other countries. Like the tailoring and the costuming you can do in Romania because their economy didn't go hi-tech etc. It's cheaper to ship everything to Romania for GoT etc.

 

[757]

With regard to the Tariffs, I found this video very informative. The whole video is worth the watch imo, but I started it at the part that I found particularly relevant to the discussion.

 

[amlove21]

Personal opinion? This is cope and the best possible framing of the recent stock market moves. But, it fleshes out the conversation with another talking point.

The facts are true- only 34.6% of Americans (ages 15-46) have a 401k, and the top 8-10% of earners in America own 95%+ of stock portfolios. The market dip isn't a MAGA problem- it's a MAG7 problem. Lower interest rates, lower food prices, lower energy prices and better trade deals with adversaries and "allies" alike benefit lower and middle class Americans and American workers.

The fun little wrinkle here is watching the left- supposedly the party of the working class and righteous fighters against the oligarchy- rail against tariffs that specifically harm oligarchs and not regular Americans writ large.

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[ThunderHorse]

Not only did we destroy American manufacturing with NAFTA and other trade agreements. We destroyed American farming and agriculture like dairies. Almost all dairies have left California either through bullshit tech billionaire lobbying or migration that doesn't make sense. Real Cheese Comes from Happy Cows, and Happy Cows come from California...but if you're in LA and you drink milk, I'm unsure where it comes from. It used to come from Chino when I was a kid, but those dairies were plowed under for cheap tract homes (not exactly cheap anymore).

 

[Blizzard]

This kind of sums things up for me...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908169766088454153

 

[amlove21]

With regard to the Tariffs, I found this video very informative. The whole video is worth the watch imo, but I started it at the part that I found particularly relevant to the discussion.

Fantastic post. +2

 

[AWP]

The funny thing to me is that Trump signaled this back when he was running and NOW people are shocked?

 

[GOTWA]

The funny thing to me is that Trump signaled this back when he was running and NOW people are shocked?

Nah, it's just an opportunity to feign outrage/shock. If they blow their load every time he does something they don't like, it'll seem very underwhelming. Gotta save it up...ya know?

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

He's got 2 years before the country turns on him.

I don't think it's enough time or continuity for tariffs to work like we should all want. If there isn't significant investment and refurbishing of USA manufacturing, next congressional elections happen in Nov 26 the Rs will get their ass kicked. Then it'll be back to square one if the Dems control house and senate. We'll be back to holding our tongues for fear of losing our job, and beating women in sports.

 

[amlove21]

The funny thing to me is that Trump signaled this back when he was running and NOW people are shocked?

He. Fucking. Ran. On. It.

Everything people (read: the left)are railing against are exactly the things he said explicitly he would do and the plurality of Americans voted for.

It's almost like these people are completely disconnected from actual Americans... nah. It's us who is wrong.

 

[ThunderHorse]

He's got 2 years before the country turns on him.

I don't think it's enough time or continuity for tariffs to work like we should all want. If there isn't significant investment and refurbishing of USA manufacturing, next congressional elections happen in Nov 26 the Rs will get their ass kicked. Then it'll be back to square one if the Dems control house and senate. We'll be back to holding our tongues for fear of losing our job, and beating women in sports.

My brother in Mace Windu.

Have you seen what the Dems are talking about? We're still all in on trannies and Hamas.

 

[Cookie_]

I don't think it's enough time or continuity for tariffs to work like we should all want. If there isn't significant investment and refurbishing of USA manufacturing

And there's the rub of this whole thing. Spinning up manufacturing takes a decent chunk of time.
Does it make sense to uproot your overseas production if it will wind up costing more in the long term?

The fun little wrinkle here is watching the left- supposedly the party of the working class and righteous fighters against the oligarchy- rail against tariffs that specifically harm oligarchs and not regular Americans writ large.

I think it's a bit ironic talking about oligarchs when the world's richest man is working with our first billionaire President. Elon's the literal definition of an oligarch.
They aren't making decisions that hurt their pocketbooks. This shit doesn't hurt the oligarchs, it hurts the "rich" on the lower end of the spectrum and the middle/lower classes (at best in the short term) through higher consumption prices.

Dave said it perfectly years ago:

 

[Jaknight]

Wow, stocks keep going down—so much winning, President Trump, so much.

 

[GOTWA]

The market 'crashing' is going to be the brightest and largest headline in the news until it starts to normalize. The talking point of the billionaires trying to enrich themselves is getting old. It's a played out response. I'm convinced there is nothing on the planet that will cripple a billionaire other than prison time.

Manufacturing coming back to the states 'could' take time, but I would bet the incentives to speed through the transition will be worth it in the end. I'm sure a lot of that regulatory red tape that truly makes zero sense will also be removed. Again, that's probably part of the incentive.