It won't matter if they provoke any action. The second they kill Americans Democrats can claim what? This only happened because Trump killed the Obama era nuke deal? The attack on what's his name terrorist in Iraq? Dead Americans outweigh those narratives with middle-of-the-road voters. There's something in the human condition that wants revenge, so despite 20 years of war Americans would hop on that train in a heartbeat, especially the higher the body count.
What’s happening in Iran?
- Thread starter CQB
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It won't matter if they provoke any action. The second they kill Americans Democrats can claim what? This only happened because Trump killed the Obama era nuke deal? The attack on what's his name terrorist in Iraq? Dead Americans outweigh those narratives with middle-of-the-road voters. There's something in the human condition that wants revenge, so despite 20 years of war Americans would hop on that train in a heartbeat, especially the higher the body count.
I think you missed the crux of what I was saying; if they managed to posture in such a way to get Trump to react, I think it would hurt him politically. The Iranians love to play that "I'm not touching you" game, and I'm wondering if that's what is happening now; keep threatening, but don't actually do anything and see if they cant get him to fuck up himself.
If they actually did something though? Fully agree with everything you posted.
You mean if he strikes the first killing blow? I totally agree with that.
Exactly. Something like shooting at/sinking one of the Iranian gunboats, like He said the Navy would do back in April, might be enough to throw public opinion away from him.
Iran gets to claim they did "nothing" to deserve such aggression and his opponents get to claim he's got an itchy trigger finger and is going to drag us into another war.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
Part of that is rhetoric, but part of that is public posturing and telling guys on the ground that he's not gonna be down with our riverine types getting captured.
I think those of us who actually pay attention to that side of the world fully understand that; I'm not so sure about the average American voter though.
I don't think Trump (or Iran, for that matter) will do anything hostile between now and the election other than talk hard, because the political fallout for whoever swings first could be massive.
Jaknight
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I agree I don’t think Iran would want to risk Trump winning again especially if Biden wants to return to the Iran nuke deal
as a civilian with no immediate family in the military, you are correct that even a few dead Americans warrants revenge... and I believe that mindset is understood by our enemies as a result of decades of immediate response to any aggression
*slinks back in to lurk mode*
*slinks back in to lurk mode*
This ^ seems to be happening a lot lately.
attacks on Iranian scientists affiliated with Iran's nuclear program:
I think the Gulf/ Sunni/ Muslim world are tired of Iran's antics. Just reading between the lines and all, but someone wants us to think these events aren't related? Abraham Accords. Normalization of relations, F-35's. The sudden deaths of Iranian nuke scientists. What else am I missing?
The Iranians aren't stupid. The noose is tightening and the US isn't driving this. Israel isn't a sole partner. Saudi and the UAE are tired of Iran's shit. Qatar is Pakisan light. Oman... I don't know. Kuwait is hedging its bets. The Saudi-UAE alliance is THE power in the Gulf right now.
The Sunni vs. Shia split is hiding behind foreign policy, but it is there. Make no mistake, it is part of the equation where the Arabian Gulf/ Arabian Peninsula are concerned.
People speeding things up in anticipation of a regime change in the US?
Trump will make a run at Iran's nuke program before he leaves office. He won't leave Biden with a negotiating platform. Israel will be involved but of the methods, I know not.
Anyone taking that bet?
He was allegedly already talked out of doing it.
Trump Reportedly Asked for Options to Attack Iran But Was Talked Out of It
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if I woke up one morning to find out we either attacked Iran or Trump says fuck the wars bring the troops home. Both options seem just as likely.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
If something does happen, I hope it's spectacularly spectacular.
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