Afghan Election Candidates

[AWP]

Fox had this story, so I did a little digging behind it.

Uh....not good.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/1...or-to-run-for-president-in/?intcmp=latestnews

http://www.khaama.com/sayyaf-files-nomination-for-presidency-with-gen-dostums-support-1933

Fox keys in on Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf and his relationship with UBL. Fair enough and bad enough, but now the Paul Harvey moment.

Sayyaf has Ismail Khan on his ticket and is allegedly back by Abdul Dostum. Who are these gentlemen?

Khan is a former Muj commander from the Soviet era. While he is liked in the West he is also supported by Iran...largely in part to him "owning" Herat province. He was also anti-Taliban which is pretty good, and is a Tajik and formerly allied with Masood. Other thant he Iran thing he isn't that bad.

Then there's Dostum and he deserves a book, not a post. To sum up he's a crass opportunist and human rights violator (think about what you need to do there IOT stand out in this country). He'll switch sides at the drop of a hat and is the leader of the Uzbek community in Afghanistan.

Sayyaf...Pashtun, has Wahabbi ties with Saudi Arabia from the Soviet era, the UBL connection, possibly involved in Massood's assassination...

You have 3 Soviet-era Muj commanders of different ethnicities and locals seemingly joining forces. Those are some big personalities in a country where warlords are still king (and these guys ARE warlords). Muppet Karzai hasn't backed anyone but one of his brothers is expected to run on someone's ticket.

I think people are positioning themselves for Civil War 2: Electric Boogaloo after we withdraw most of our forces.

Elections are in April...I really need to be out of here in April.

 

[AWP]

What is significant is that the Pakistani's never controlled these guys. Their ties were weak during the Soviet era and they've fought the Taliban at various stages. While Dostum and Sayyaf are opportunitsts, this coalition represents a serious threat to the TB and to Pakistani interests. One of the driving factors behind the "creation" of the TB and now the ISI was for PK to influence Afghanistan, which PK has sought to do for well over 30 years now. It looks at AF as a vassal or puppet and not another sovereign nation. These guys pose a threat to PK/ TB/ HQN and that won't be taken lightly.

 

[Totentanz]

Is this an alliance that has a potential to last, or is it just enough to throw out the current powers that be and hang on for 6 months before they go after one another? (ie, is the fight going to be between this group and ISI/HQN/TB, or among each other with ISI, HQN, TB taking what they can, when they can?)

 

[DA SWO]

What will Waky-stan do to preserve their influence? or do these guys start the next civil war and kill TB inside ass-crackistan?

 

[AWP]

Is this an alliance that has a potential to last, or is it just enough to throw out the current powers that be and hang on for 6 months before they go after one another? (ie, is the fight going to be between this group and ISI/HQN/TB, or among each other with ISI, HQN, TB taking what they can, when they can?)

Yes.

It could go either way. If you look at the history of the players involved and Afghan political history, nothing's permanent. They've all fought one another at some point, fought the TB, fought with the TB, you name it. Dostum alone has switched teams numerous times since 1980. The TB drive north from Kandahar was stopped outside of Kabul by the Northern Alliance until bags of money were handed over (thanks, Islamabad!) to various NA commanders. Masood and Hekmatyar were frenemies who fought to capture and then over control of Kabul in '92.

I think these guys will stick it out until a better offer comes along. They all have different financial backers and motives, but I tend to think they will oppose the TB and maybe the new gov't if they lose. They've positioned themselves to control an arc from Herat- Maiamana - MeS- Konduz and then down to the Kabul area. They'll control trade from the west and north and have the support of the Tajik and Uzbek communities plus some Pashtuns and their ties to Iran and Saudi Arabia are excellent sources of cash and weapons.

Anyone associated with Karzai will have his stench on their ticket. The three above can position themselves as semi-modern Afghans commited to an Islamic way of life. Modern without being too modern, religious, anti-Taliban, and decidely not pro-Western. For Afghans they are a good counterweight to the TB without being too cozy with the West.

 

[pardus]

I would take Ismail Khan over anyone else there. Despite Iran he was fairly pro western IIRC.

I'd be quite happy to see Pakistan fighting a war on two fronts with Iran backing Khan against them and India from the other side.

 

[AWP]

Now I'm supposed to spell check my thread titles?

This site's academic standards are unrealistic. English? Ain't nobody got time for dat!

 

[Chopstick]

It is disturbing my OCD. Sorry.

 

[Kraut783]

Mmmm...bad thing is Ismail Khan likes Iran....but better than Pacha Khan Zadran, met that guy in 2002....did not like him one bit, plus the whole tantrum he threw and rocketed Gardez city.

 

[texaspete]

From my point of view I think it's strange that Ismail Khan is being backed by Iran considering he is tied in with Sayyaf, I mean sure Khan fled to Iran during the bad years, but who didn't? I'm not sure there is enough evidence to make the assessment to say that Iran supports him. I can't find any articles really defining his ethnic alliances (which even during the early 2000's and prior he was less tribally aligned than most) but I do find it unfortunate that most of the power players in Afghanistan are the same ones from early days.

 

[AWP]

From my point of view I think it's strange that Ismail Khan is being backed by Iran considering he is tied in with Sayyaf, I mean sure Khan fled to Iran during the bad years, but who didn't? I'm not sure there is enough evidence to make the assessment to say that Iran supports him. I can't find any articles really defining his ethnic alliances (which even during the early 2000's and prior he was less tribally aligned than most) but I do find it unfortunate that most of the power players in Afghanistan are the same ones from early days.

You need to do some more reading on this country and its history.

 

[Chopstick]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/0...residential-election-results-indicate-runoff/

Afghanistan presidential election ends with no clear winner, runoff expected in May

:wall::wall::wall:

 

[AWP]

That's only surprising to anyone who doesn't follow this country. '09 was a runoff and this was guaranteed to be one before the polls opened. The two front runners are the best of the available options; Karzai's crony won't make the show.

 

[Kheenbish]

The book First In: An Insider's Account of How the CIA Spearheaded the War on Terror in Afghanistan by Gary Schroen has a good insight on some of the candidates since the beginning of the war in Afghanistan. It showcases how some of them acted and played well...