ThunderHorse
Verified Military
If they had the Ayatollah dead to rights we probably should have let them do it.
Israel and Iran
- Thread starter TLDR20
- Start date
If they had the Ayatollah dead to rights we probably should have let them do it.
“Let them” is a weird way to phrase that.
The developing narrative here is interesting depending on your feelings about Israel.
The whole world seems to forget that Israel is the size of New Jersey and completely propped up by America militarily. All all equipment all our intel all our clout when the fecal matter hits the oscillation device- but not this time.
Israel seems to have forgotten that when you kill people, those people get to kill you back and war isn’t fair, it’s a zero sum game.
So, here’s my guess- it’s not that we didn’t “let them” kill the ayatollah. We were just super clear with Israel that we weren’t on board with the little regional war they got going. Killing the head of the country didn’t work out well in Libya, Syria, Iraq and probably wouldn’t work well for Iran, and it looks like we told Israel “You wanna destabilize the entire country? Cool. How you gonna hold it? Rebuild it? Cause you don’t get Big Daddy America on this one.”
Just a guess. Also, you guys should look up the Clean Break Memo. Israel has been talking about destabilizing these countries for like, 30 years.
TLDR20
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Everyone has a boner for the Israeli military but they have zero ability to follow through with any real action against Iran. Likewise Iran has no ability to do anything apart from what they’ve done to Israel. Neither country has the ability to project power outside of air and missile strikes.
I hope we don’t get involved in this developing shit show.
Yuuuup. Israel outran its headlights. Haifa and Tel Aviv getting absolutely hammered.
Sucks to suck, I just hope both teams have fun and get exactly what they asked for.
What's happening now is what needs to happen. Israel and Iran are implacable foes. There will be no peace between them as long as both continue to exist in their current structure.
Iran has been at war with America since at least 1979 and with Israel since like the mid-1980s. There is no room for peace as long as long as the US is a Western democratic power, Iran is run as an Islamic theocracy, and Israel exists as a Jewish state. I'm ok with two of those three conditions, but the one I'm not ok with has to go. To be clear, I'm talking about Iran.
Iran and its many proxies are negatively affecting US interests all around the world. The US doesn't have the political will to do anything kinetically meaningful about it at the moment, but the Israelis do. They've crippled Hezbollah (which regularly attacks Americans) and Hamas (which regularly attacks Americans) and helped mitigate the Houthis (which regularly attacks Americans).
What is happening in Iran right now is not the standard "Iraq-Osirik-bomb-the-shit-out-of-you-and-go-home" event. To the contrary, it looks a lot more like decisive regime-change type operations. And regime change in Iran is exactly what is needed in order to mitigate future threats to US interests in the Middle East and around the world.
There are always unintended consequences with this type of thing, but I'd rather it happen now, when another country is bearing the majority of the operational and political costs, then when it gets big enough that we have to put US boots on the ground.
Iran has been at war with America since at least 1979 and with Israel since like the mid-1980s. There is no room for peace as long as long as the US is a Western democratic power, Iran is run as an Islamic theocracy, and Israel exists as a Jewish state. I'm ok with two of those three conditions, but the one I'm not ok with has to go. To be clear, I'm talking about Iran.
Iran and its many proxies are negatively affecting US interests all around the world. The US doesn't have the political will to do anything kinetically meaningful about it at the moment, but the Israelis do. They've crippled Hezbollah (which regularly attacks Americans) and Hamas (which regularly attacks Americans) and helped mitigate the Houthis (which regularly attacks Americans).
What is happening in Iran right now is not the standard "Iraq-Osirik-bomb-the-shit-out-of-you-and-go-home" event. To the contrary, it looks a lot more like decisive regime-change type operations. And regime change in Iran is exactly what is needed in order to mitigate future threats to US interests in the Middle East and around the world.
There are always unintended consequences with this type of thing, but I'd rather it happen now, when another country is bearing the majority of the operational and political costs, then when it gets big enough that we have to put US boots on the ground.
I'm not sure that would have been the right thing to do. In the ensuing chaos, the country would probably unite instead of remaining fractured, and we've seen time and again that sometimes having a really shitty leader of the opposition is better than having no leader, especially in Islamic societies.
Besides, they can get him later probably as easily as they can get him now. It's easier to put someone back on the target deck, it's a lot harder to un-murder them.
Frankly, everyone should have got on board with the Israeli's and hit every military/theocratic leader possible; in one night. Make sure to include the regional Arab nations, that are also sick of Irans shit. Then we all go home and let SOF do SOF shit, in the dark. Letting the Iranian "moderates" sort the country out. Forget anything conventional.
That didn't happen.
So now that Israel has air superiority, flood the airspac. Help them hunt down and destroy everyone that chanted death to anyone.
That didn't happen.
So now that Israel has air superiority, flood the airspac. Help them hunt down and destroy everyone that chanted death to anyone.
Super hard disagree, although I get the intent of what you are getting at. I think there's nuance and we can cut the cord with some "allies", might as well start with our "greatest ally".
Israel has air superiority, looks like a tactical victory. They want to unleash some King David type retribution? Cool. The outcome (decimation of Iran and their terror state) is exactly the same if we don't engage, and it's better optics generally for America. The real move is negotiation of a peace deal after Israel gets done glassing Iran.
Israel has Mossad, everyone here seems to agree they're super capable, good. They can go in and foment regime change without our second-tier CIA or their resources.
Europe wants to help? Sure, but don't ask us for money and weapons when Russia comes calling and you winchestered your resources supporting Israel. Ukraine needs more funding? Nope. We are worried about China.
I am not a true "anti-inverventionalist"- but let's take a page out of our pacing threat (China's) playbook. Did they send money weapons or resources to Russia? Ukraine? Yemen? Anywhere else? Nope. They sat back and watched while we poured trillions into these other countries.
America first.
TLDR20
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Where does Israel even have Air superiority? Not over Iran. I’d say if you are getting missles rained down on you you don’t have it over your own country. You don’t have true air superiority until your tankers are orbiting the capital. Israel has a capability to strike Iran, at great cost and risk to an extremely finite resource.
Live updates: Israel claims aerial superiority over Iran's capital, Tehran
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/16/isr...ice-as-attacks-continue-for-a-fourth-day.html
Take it up with the Israeli's, not my claim.
TLDR20
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I’m not arguing with you. I’m just commenting. If it came across like that my bad.
According to JP 1-02, air superiority simply means that you can do what you want in the air without "prohibitive interference" from aircraft or missiles. It doesn't mean none of them are flying; that's air supremacy.
Air superiority is 100% the correct description of what Israel has over Iran right now, IMO.
Air superiority is 100% the correct description of what Israel has over Iran right now, IMO.
I didn't take it that way, you're good.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
I don't think they've forgotten anything. We're talking about a country that plays for keeps. Enemies on all sides and kicks every one of their ass every time they raise their paw. The same people who turned lipstick canisters into bullet casings.
As far as destabilizing things, I said for years on this board we should not have been in Syria and got told I was wrong. We destabilized the middle East with our support of the Arab Spring. We were dumb enough to think we could export our style of democracy to Iraq...what it's led to is a government that is unstable but kinda sorta is allied with Iran because Shi'a and Sunnis and stuff.
Fair point that it could be a problem, but I remember when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad elected president and a moderate was running against him. Just like I talk about all the women and the LGBTQIA+ers that support Palest...err I mean Hamas. A Moderate in Iran makes @AWP look liberal. These people still want to murder us and still want to wipe Israel off the map. I'm not even sure a liberal in Iran wants peace.
Not certain that is the case, they knew what they signed up for.
Just my opinion here; it looks like they signed up for a war with Big Daddy America backing them. Looks like they had a little boo boo in their FACL quad (that's usually in the early pages of a formalized MDMP brief).
Blizzard
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Re: non-concur on the statement above.
While it's true, China has not overly provided the Soviets with arms, the technology they've provided them has been instrumental in allowing the Soviets to retain their progress in the Ukraine. While indirect, their assistance shouldn't be understated.
U.S. intelligence shows China is surging equipment sales to Russia to help war effort in Ukraine, AP says
"... in 2023 about 90 percent of Russia’s microelectronics came from China, which Russia has used to make missiles, tanks and aircraft. Nearly 70 percent of Russia’s approximately $900 million in machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023 came from China.
Chinese and Russian entities have also been working to jointly produce unmanned aerial vehicles inside Russia, and Chinese companies are likely providing Russia with nitrocellulose needed to make propellants weapons, the officials said. China-based companies Wuhan Global Sensor Technology Co., Wuhan Tongsheng Technology Co. Ltd. and Hikvision are providing optical components for use in Russian tanks and armored vehicles...
...Russia has received military optics for use in tanks and armored vehicles manufactured by Chinese firms iRay Technology and North China Research Institute of Electro-Optics, and China has been providing Russia with UAV engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles...
...Beijing is also working with Russia to improve its satellite and other space-based capabilities for use in Ukraine, a development the officials say could in the longer term increase the threat Russia poses across Europe. The officials, citing downgraded intelligence findings, said the U.S. has also determined that China is providing imagery to Russia for its war on Ukraine."
Ok- what's that compared to the total money we have given Ukraine and Israel? Information and tech sharing, ok, that doesn't hurt China especially in regards to the US; it actually benefits them monetarily thanks to trade agreements.
I get what you're saying here, but we are comparing apples to steamrollers.
