Israel and Iran

amlove21 said:
Ok- what's that compared to the total money we have given Ukraine and Israel? Information and tech sharing, ok, that doesn't hurt China especially in regards to the US; it actually benefits them monetarily thanks to trade agreements.

I get what you're saying here, but we are comparing apples to steamrollers.
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I hear ya. Just pointing out they aren't exactly sitting on the sidelines either. They're a sly and measured foe.
 
Blizzard said:
I hear ya. Just pointing out they aren't exactly sitting on the sidelines either. They're a sly and measured foe.
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Yep, tracking and I agree. I think I am saying that there is a middle ground where we don't endlessly throw money, weapons and support at either side on this one, and emulate that sly and measured approach- sorry if I was unclear (I am not smart).
 
Marauder06 said:
We'll see, I guess.

Momentum for regime change in Iran surges amid Israel's conflict with Tehran
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I honestly don't see how that's going to happen. The "momentum" seems to be among Iranians living in America. Who leads the regime change? Civilian opposition groups in Iran who have no weapons?

I don't think Israel is capable logistically of supporting any kind of grassroots Iranian rebellion. And I don't think they're capable of turning the IRGC or the Army against the Ayatollah.
 
Gunz said:
I honestly don't see how that's going to happen. The "momentum" seems to be among Iranians living in America. Who leads the regime change? Civilian opposition groups in Iran who have no weapons?

I don't think Israel is capable logistically of supporting any kind of grassroots Iranian rebellion. And I don't think they're capable of turning the IRGC or the Army against the Ayatollah.
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Awwww, cmon! It could be fun! What if we were right all along and you CAN spread democracy via GBU?
 
Marauder06 said:
I'm OK with that.
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How Dare You Greta GIF
 
AWP said:
If we give Iran the same amount of democracy we gave Iraq no one will have running water, power, or food.
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Although.. We gave Iraq to Iran to help finalize the Iran/Iraq war. In this situation, I think it would just go to the Azeris.
 
The Iranian regime wants every Jew to burn. It’s how they get the Mahdi to return.

I was thinking some more about Iran's situation. They are on their back foot. Their little Shia crescent is coming apart. The Syrian regime that they propped up for so long has been overthrown by hardcore Sunnis. Lebanon is a mess. Hezbollah is neutered. Hamas is all but defeated. The Yemenis are still a bother but not much of a real threat. Israel wiped out most of Iran's nuclear capacity and senior military leadership. Most of their vaunted missile and drone force is either used up, shot down, or in hiding. If we take our foot off of their throats now, they will just emerge from the rubble like angry cockroaches and rebuild the threat for future US generations.

I'm all about regime change in this instance. I think it's a very America First perspective. If we get rid of the Iranian theocracy, most (looking at you, Qatar) of the support to Hamas and Hezbollah dries up. The oil flows unimpeded. The threat to our military forces and other vital interest dies down. America is better off.

Lesson learned from the last couple of times we attacked other countries in the region: it needs to come from the people on the ground. We can bomb the shit out of them, kill off their military leaders, murder their scientists and secret police, and destroy every piece of offensive capability that they have. But it's not going to work if we roll in heavy on the ground with US forces. The ground game has to be grass roots Iranian. Are we there yet? I don't know...
 
Marauder06 said:
The Iranian regime wants every Jew to burn. It’s how they get the Mahdi to return.

I was thinking some more about Iran's situation. They are on their back foot. Their little Shia crescent is coming apart. The Syrian regime that they propped up for so long has been overthrown by hardcore Sunnis. Lebanon is a mess. Hezbollah is neutered. Hamas is all but defeated. The Yemenis are still a bother but not much of a real threat. Israel wiped out most of Iran's nuclear capacity and senior military leadership. Most of their vaunted missile and drone force is either used up, shot down, or in hiding. If we take our foot off of their throats now, they will just emerge from the rubble like angry cockroaches and rebuild the threat for future US generations.

I'm all about regime change in this instance. I think it's a very America First perspective. If we get rid of the Iranian theocracy, most (looking at you, Qatar) of the support to Hamas and Hezbollah dries up. The oil flows unimpeded. The threat to our military forces and other vital interest dies down. America is better off.

Lesson learned from the last couple of times we attacked other countries in the region: it needs to come from the people on the ground. We can bomb the shit out of them, kill off their military leaders, murder their scientists and secret police, and destroy every piece of offensive capability that they have. But it's not going to work if we roll in heavy on the ground with US forces. The ground game has to be grass roots Iranian. Are we there yet? I don't know...
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Just to add a twist (pointing out an aspect of this that IMO should not be ignored): Iran for generations (since pre-1979) has used the West (and the United States as the most visible symbol) as a galvanizing enemy, and the threat of US/Western interference in Iran (both real in our support of the Shah, and perceived) as a influencing theme in their domestic messaging. It’s one of the reasons (if not THE reason) that their fairly-unpopular theocracy has retained power as long as it has.

This both means that any revolution HAS to be grass roots and that if a regime change starts to take place it can be quickly and easily derailed by that external influence manifesting.

I’ll remain curious if that holds true for Israel’s recent actions (specifically if they strengthen Iranian support for their government), but I definitely think it will of the US steps in.
 
Totentanz said:
Just to add a twist (pointing out an aspect of this that IMO should not be ignored): Iran for generations (since pre-1979) has used the West (and the United States as the most visible symbol) as a galvanizing enemy, and the threat of US/Western interference in Iran (both real in our support of the Shah, and perceived) as a influencing theme in their domestic messaging. It’s one of the reasons (if not THE reason) that their fairly-unpopular theocracy has retained power as long as it has.

This both means that any revolution HAS to be grass roots and that if a regime change starts to take place it can be quickly and easily derailed by that external influence manifesting.

I’ll remain curious if that holds true for Israel’s recent actions (specifically if they strengthen Iranian support for their government), but I definitely think it will of the US steps in.
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I think everyone--including the Iranian people--are tired of the Iranian regime's shit. Young people in particular know that there's a better way, one that doesn't involve burkas and mullahs and sanctions and constant war with the West. Iran has a lot going for it, and could be a really great place to live and work, *if* it wasn't run by bronze-age savages.
 

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