Kidnapped Nigerian Girls

[TLDR20]

Would the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps (ICDC) back 2004 count? LOL

No worries man, I'm just running my suck. I don't know what you guys do outside of the very little I read.

I withdraw my opinions, we should do nothing, b/c it will cost too much and its not worth it.

Yeah that counts. Now would you have trusted those yahoos with rescuing 200 civilian schoolgirls?

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Yeah that counts. Now would you have trusted those yahoos with rescuing 200 civilian schoolgirls?

LOL, we couldn't trust them not sell their equipment, much less not blow all their ammo at first contact.

However, its a bit of apples to oranges, we had monkeys who went through a 6 week BCT and had to OJT their asses. Nigeria has a professional Army and Air Force, Andrea has been investing in what they call "counterterrorism training" which honestly looks less then the equivalent of light infantry skills, however they are well equipped and I find it hard to believe that an ODA or equivalent has not been working with their SOF. The fact that they have several divisions with light and mech equipment and training, a modern Air Force and probably the Intel assets to fix the position of these school girls. I find it hard to believe that select group of professionals cannot go in their, train, plan and advise a good rescue operation without years of prep training, millions of dollars, countless SIGINT and ISR, and a JSOFTF.

That said, I see your point along with others, and I'm really not attempting be an ass here. With any hostage rescue (large numbers or small) their is a probability percentage of success and failure. I come from the better to try than not camp, not that a cordon, isolate, negotiate option is not possible, but I guess someone would at least need to put that Intel wheel in motion, etc.

I guess I just expect different response from some of you guys and than get all "WTF" when the discussion turns to "fuck these kids, not our problem, cost too much, etc". My admiration may have gotten the best of me, causing and adverse mental combustion, followed by my inability to not voice my angers and frustration.

 

[pardus]

Morally you are absolutely correct, something should be done, but bottom line is that it's not our problem.
The UK does have some SAS guys on the ground helping out.

Why doesn't Nigeria hire PMC's to do the job? Why doesn't Nigeria ask OAS to help them out? Why is this our problem if Nigeria doesn't do something itself?

As for logistics...

"But the task of recovering the girls appeared to grow more complicated with news that U.S. intelligence believe the 276 girls have been split up.

"We do think they have been broken up into smaller groups," U.S. Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said.

He declined to detail how U.S. officials came to the conclusion. It is a sentiment that has been echoed by a number of others, who believe the girls already have been moved out of Nigeria and into neighboring countries.

"The search must be in Niger, Cameroon and Chad, to see if we can find information," former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the U.N.'s special envoy for global education, told CNN." *

Just supposed we do allocate $X million and X amount of troops and equipment needed and we do go in and rescue the girls. "We" come home hailed as heroes around the world, awesome. Then Boko Haram kidnaps another 200 a week later... and then the Lord's Resistance Army kidnaps another 200 in the Congo a week after that... What do we do then?

Also, why are we concerned about the kidnapping but not concerned about all the murders?

"And on Monday, Boko Haram attacked Gamboru Ngala, a remote state capital near Nigeria's border with Cameroon that has been used as a staging ground for troops in the search for the girls. Some of the at least 310 victims were burned alive." *

Personally I would love to see all of Boko Haram swinging from the neck, I'd go there myself and help do it in a heartbeat if I could.

As to your question about human trafficking, I recently read an article that stated human trafficking was the 2nd biggest criminal money earner in the world, 2nd only to drugs and ahead of animal poaching.

So your argument is that b/c child trafficking is prolific throughout the world, we should just not offer assistance with this one? Or that b/c it’s a Commonwealth that we should let the UK (which I’ve seen no offer of assistance from in the news) should handle it?

I get that you think it’s a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, and I know you are correct. But my issues, is why are we (The USA), so worried about drug trafficking, weapons trafficking and not human trafficking. What really irritates me is that we have all these SOF units, designed, equipped and trained to go in and help with situations like these globally, but on this very forum (all things SOF) everyone has been about “Fuck these kids”. It’s not just this incident or just the fact that it is kids; it’s the big picture, what is the point of having all this awesome SOF, if we don’t even want to use it on saving some school kids stolen from their families and being held by Muslim extremist? Maybe my heart is bleeding, but I think if we are going to spend the money, it might be a good place to start with the children who will grow up to remember “when my own country didn’t shit to save me, these Americans did vs supporting countries like fucking Pakistan (IDK brownie points for the future vs funding for future enemies).

That all said, the bottom line is, we don’t have to spend millions of dollars and it wouldn’t take much to get these kids back. I probably agreed more with the Troll’s post as for the “why we shouldn’t get involved, or the at least get the Nigerian gov to pay the bill” but to be honest, I find it hard to believe that this is even something that is being argued. If SF and some IC guys don’t want to go do it, hire a damn PMC to do it, and take the funding to pay for it, out of the SF and IC budget. I mean shit, 4-6 trainers/advisors working with a Nigerian Btn, and some old spook who knows the area with a few hundred thousand cash to get a pin-point on the whereabouts of these kids, and this shit would have already been over.

The child trafficking throughout South America, Asia and Africa, is ridicules and something should be done about it, and if countries don’t want to spend the money, or put boots on the ground, they should at least deregulate the PMC side of things, and allow people who do give a shit, to get the funding and go do the “right thing”.

Sorry for the rant, and no I really don't want to take SF's budget away, just wondering where the lines got crossed from "liberate the oppressed" to "not our problem".

My $.02

* http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/08/world/africa/nigeria-abducted-girls/

 

[pardus]

Becareful when you use "professional" and "African army" in the same sentence...

LOL, we couldn't trust them not sell their equipment, much less not blow all their ammo at first contact.

However, its a bit of apples to oranges, we had monkeys who went through a 6 week BCT and had to OJT their asses. Nigeria has a professional Army and Air Force, Andrea has been investing in what they call "counterterrorism training" which honestly looks less then the equivalent of light infantry skills, however they are well equipped and I find it hard to believe that an ODA or equivalent has not been working with their SOF. The fact that they have several divisions with light and mech equipment and training, a modern Air Force and probably the Intel assets to fix the position of these school girls. I find it hard to believe that select group of professionals cannot go in their, train, plan and advise a good rescue operation without years of prep training, millions of dollars, countless SIGINT and ISR, and a JSOFTF.

That said, I see your point along with others, and I'm really not attempting be an ass here. With any hostage rescue (large numbers or small) their is a probability percentage of success and failure. I come from the better to try than not camp, not that a cordon, isolate, negotiate option is not possible, but I guess someone would at least need to put that Intel wheel in motion, etc.

I guess I just expect different response from some of you guys and than get all "WTF" when the discussion turns to "fuck these kids, not our problem, cost too much, etc". My admiration may have gotten the best of me, causing and adverse mental combustion, followed by my inability to not voice my angers and frustration.

 

[x SF med]

JAB... Nigeria has 2 faces - the public and the private.
Public face -"we are an enlightened and educated country" private face - "if you do not have ties to the royal families, you will never be truly educated nor will you have a voice."
Public face - "we have a large, strong well trained, well equipped and ready army." private face - "we have the presidential guard units made up of hand picked men to guard our interests and the rich, the rest of the country has barely equipped untrained units from the lower classes, fuck them."

Nigeria borders Cameroon, Niger, Benin and Chad... Nigeria is divided into 36 states and Abuja, the federal capital territory. The states are further divided into 774 Local Government Areas - most of which are corrupt. Nigeria has 10 separate intelligence services - that don't talk to each other and report to different factions of the government.

Want to know about the Nigerian Army - from a respected source.... here's a link to Global Security.org's take on the Nigerian Army.

You are sadly misinformed of the resources needed to undertake the rescue or even start looking for them... Africom and Soceur have probably been looking at this wondering when they'd be tasked with a humiliating failure before it even got off the ground.... It is embarrassing t oeven contemplate this operation without a military infrastructure in the host nation that can even support itself, much less a truly sophisticated plan you suggest.

So, feel free to go grab your NCO buddies and offer to train the Nigerians, find and rescue these schoolgirls for the $1.6 million you believe it would cost to put an ODA on the ground... you will have no Intel, imagery nor reliable support... Have fun. (Btw, in order to do it right, the mission would require an SF Bn, with full Interagency support, including Air, Naval and allied SOF .... plus logistics, and paying the Host Nation for any damage incurred - cost upwards of $2 Billion at the low end, to get on the ground - figure quadrupling that if the op lasts longer than 2 weeks, and about $1 bil a week after the first 4 weeks).

Explain where your 1.6 mil total to put an ODA on the ground and train a Bn of Nigerians in 6 weeks came from? that's less than one day's cost.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

JAB... Nigeria has 2 faces - the public and the private.
Public face -"we are an enlightened and educated country" private face - "if you do not have ties to the royal families, you will never be truly educated nor will you have a voice."
Public face - "we have a large, strong well trained, well equipped and ready army." private face - "we have the presidential guard units made up of hand picked men to guard our interests and the rich, the rest of the country has barely equipped untrained units from the lower classes, fuck them."

Nigeria borders Cameroon, Niger, Benin and Chad... Nigeria is divided into 36 states and Abuja, the federal capital territory. The states are further divided into 774 Local Government Areas - most of which are corrupt. Nigeria has 10 separate intelligence services - that don't talk to each other and report to different factions of the government.

Want to know about the Nigerian Army - from a respected source.... here's a link to Global Security.org's take on the Nigerian Army.

You are sadly misinformed of the resources needed to undertake the rescue or even start looking for them... Africom and Soceur have probably been looking at this wondering when they'd be tasked with a humiliating failure before it even got off the ground.... It is embarrassing t oeven contemplate this operation without a military infrastructure in the host nation that can even support itself, much less a truly sophisticated plan you suggest.

So, feel free to go grab your NCO buddies and offer to train the Nigerians, find and rescue these schoolgirls for the $1.6 million you believe it would cost to put an ODA on the ground... you will have no Intel, imagery nor reliable support... Have fun. (Btw, in order to do it right, the mission would require an SF Bn, with full Interagency support, including Air, Naval and allied SOF .... plus logistics, and paying the Host Nation for any damage incurred - cost upwards of $2 Billion at the low end, to get on the ground - figure quadrupling that if the op lasts longer than 2 weeks, and about $1 bil a week after the first 4 weeks).

Explain where your 1.6 mil total to put an ODA on the ground and train a Bn of Nigerians in 6 weeks came from? that's less than one day's cost.

I don't have my laptop to give this post its proper reply...but will give a formal reply in a few hours.

Numbers were crunched on what it would take to put 12 guys on the ground, sustain them using commercial means and pay them a going contractor day rate, with a "buy info" budget of $1mil. I'll spell it out for you a little later. I was not saying that what an ODA would need, although I find it interesting that 1 ODA needs so much support and funding to covertly train a btn worth of HN forces.

 

[x SF med]

I don't have my laptop to give this post its proper reply...but will give a formal reply in a few hours.

Numbers were crunched on what it would take to put 12 guys on the ground, sustain them using commercial means and pay them a going contractor day rate, with a "buy info" budget of $1mil. I'll spell it out for you a little later. I was not saying that what an ODA would need, although I find it interesting that 1 ODA needs so much support and funding to covertly train a btn worth of HN forces.

the issue is not just the ODA on the ground, nor the support, but the parameters of the mission... you do realize that a single ODA on the ground at a minimum needs 120 people in rear D support... those same 120 people can support one or two other ODAs, but by the time you throw contingent assets into the mix, and intel sources/assets into the mix the costs multiply exponentially. I also jumped it to the logical conclusion that it would take an SF Bn, and the mission would go allied and Joint source based on the Host Nation's inability to contribute fully in a nominal time frame for a successful rescue of the hostages... A nominal timeframe to get the Nigerians ready to undertake a mission of tis type is ~2-3 years with a single ODA, and mission success after 2 years wold still only be 55-60% based on the cultural/social/political implications and corruption. I'm over simplifying the parameters, thought process and planning for this, but not nearly as much as you were.

You tossed a white paper scenario at me that's inside my lane, and outside yours and you're telling me that I'm wrong? Wow. I did not realize that you were such an expert on Special Operations planning for UW/GW/FID ops in a combined nation/Force scenario.... I'm sorry for doubting you... It can be done for $1.6 million with a single ODA and no support in 6 weeks like you said. I thought I was trained in this, but I guess I'm wrong.

Please enlighten me, Yoda.

 

[TLDR20]

although I find it interesting that 1 ODA needs so much support and funding to covertly train a btn worth of HN forces.

Covertly training them to do infantry tasks like ambushes, raids, and patrol, we can do it for very little. Training a Bn to rescue 200 hostages in difficult terrain and no on the ground c&c assets. That takes lots of time. There are reasons things like the Q, and SQT are over a year long. Not to mention, the people who would actually rescue hostages have even more specialized training in the forms of OTC.

 

[DA SWO]

I don't have my laptop to give this post its proper reply...but will give a formal reply in a few hours.

Numbers were crunched on what it would take to put 12 guys on the ground, sustain them using commercial means and pay them a going contractor day rate, with a "buy info" budget of $1mil. I'll spell it out for you a little later. I was not saying that what an ODA would need, although I find it interesting that 1 ODA needs so much support and funding to covertly train a btn worth of HN forces.

Food for thought, a covert operation is more expensive then an overt op.
Log trail can get more complex.

 

[Ranger Psych]

Here's some other reasons I know for a fact this shit would be a JTF mission:

Last time I was anywhere in Africa, the ODA we linked up with said "No, I don't think you really want to do a live fire with these guys" and so we didn't even end up doing any training WITH the local nationals because they were that scary. I've seen ANA I trusted further and I didn't trust a fuckin one of em.

TLDR20 hit it on the head. Go read what 6th Ranger BN did in WWII.

You aren't uptraining local troops. If they aren't ready for it now you aren't training them to do it tomorrow. Especially with african military standards being in place, and trying to do it quietly so they don't end up beefing up/moving the obj around in a shell game.

Figuring that they're armed and have a 4 hostages to 1 enemy ratio that means you have a heavy platoon size element, never mind surrounding areas.

That means the primary objective is a Bn minus due to the manpower plus being able to handle 200 people. Figure dispersed companies IOT support main effort of effecting rescue in various ambushes, additional raids since "lol we're here, why not make sure they can't pull this shit again anytime soon" etc.

 

[DA SWO]

Everyone assumes the hostages are together, increase force requirements for dispersed locations.

Odds of finding all the locations and hitting them together are pretty slim.

 

[pardus]

Everyone assumes the hostages are together, increase force requirements for dispersed locations.

Odds of finding all the locations and hitting them together are pretty slim.

Check post #63, the hostages have been split up. Getting them back will require a miracle without Boko Haram's help.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

the issue is not just the ODA on the ground, nor the support, but the parameters of the mission... you do realize that a single ODA on the ground at a minimum needs 120 people in rear D support... those same 120 people can support one or two other ODAs, but by the time you throw contingent assets into the mix, and intel sources/assets into the mix the costs multiply exponentially. I also jumped it to the logical conclusion that it would take an SF Bn, and the mission would go allied and Joint source based on the Host Nation's inability to contribute fully in a nominal time frame for a successful rescue of the hostages... A nominal timeframe to get the Nigerians ready to undertake a mission of tis type is ~2-3 years with a single ODA, and mission success after 2 years wold still only be 55-60% based on the cultural/social/political implications and corruption. I'm over simplifying the parameters, thought process and planning for this, but not nearly as much as you were.

You tossed a white paper scenario at me that's inside my lane, and outside yours and you're telling me that I'm wrong? Wow.

No I was not saying you or anyone else was wrong, just that I am shocked at the expense and support being stated as “needed” If you read back a bit, I actaully said you guys are the experts, but whatever.

I did not realize that you were such an expert on Special Operations planning for UW/GW/FID ops in a combined nation/Force scenario.... I'm sorry for doubting you...

I never claimed to be an expert in anything, but I do watch a lot of TV… :-"I get it man, only SF knows how to perform FID, train HN forces, anyone who has ever done it who is not SF is full of crap and only coming from an less than knowledgeable point of view.

It can be done for $1.6 million with a single ODA and no support in 6 weeks like you said. I thought I was trained in this, but I guess I'm wrong.

Please enlighten me, Yoda.

My force is not special enough for enlightenment…

No worries, I was going to type out this long ass response and make my points, but it’s obvious that is futile at this point. Thanks for squaring me away, from this point forward I will be in full understanding that in order to train anyone in Africa, you will need an SF Btn and a 2 billion dollar budget. And if you want to rescue kidnapped school girls, it will take the full force of the USASOC, JSOC and probably the 82nd Airborne standing by.......Just in case.

 

[AWP]

For better or for worse, the world looks to us for solutions, answers, help...whatever. The Cold War kept a lot of bad guys from being worse guys. Today the perception is that the US is the world's policeman and we're the point man for keeping it together. That doesn't mean the rest of the world gets a pass, far from it, but the third world looks to the US first, so it behooves us to find a solution.

A solution doesn't have to be US forces on the ground, it can be as "low cost" as some transports while Europe or local countries contribute manpower. ISR support is another area where we can contribute. Let other nations/ regions bear the brunt of failure. If their troops hit the OBJ and kill off half of the hostages...to be frank, better them than us.

I'm a huge proponent of not acting unless it is in our national interest, but I'm acutely aware that sometimes we have to "do something" if only for a moral or political high ground. "Something" doesn't need to be everything and it doesn't mean our troops have to be in harm's way. "Something" also costs money and "something" will have second- and third-order effects which must be considered.

As for Nigeria, I don't know enough about the problem to offer a solution. I do know that we should be involved, but to what degree I'm not certain. I also know opportunities like these are ripe for an ISR presence and what better way than to gather on the region than something like this? Hell, maybe we could convince the NSA to spy on someone other than Americans for a change?

 

[RackMaster]

The Canadian government gave a blanket offer but US officials had already took the lead. So we offered anything that wasn't committed. I think more communication before commitments are made, could save resources but I think a lot of countries wait for the US to react first.

 

[AWP]

The Canadian government gave a blanket offer but US officials had already took the lead. So we offered anything that wasn't committed. I think more communication before commitments are made, could save resources but I think a lot of countries wait for the US to react first.

And that's where the regional organizations should take the lead. Org. of African States or whatever should start the process. "What do we need? Who do we ask for XXXXX?" Maybe they did that in this case, I don't know, but developing countries need to help themselves a little.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Fox is reporting 80 troops deployed to Chad to support the ISR side.

 

[x SF med]

No worries, I was going to type out this long ass response and make my points, but it’s obvious that is futile at this point. Thanks for squaring me away, from this point forward I will be in full understanding that in order to train anyone in Africa, you will need an SF Btn and a 2 billion dollar budget. And if you want to rescue kidnapped school girls, it will take the full force of the USASOC, JSOC and probably the 82nd Airborne standing by.......Just in case.

Your scenario was to train the HN forces to accomplish the mission in 60 days for $1.6 Million with a single unsupported ODA sized force, or was I mistaken?
I took your stated parameters and used them as a basis for a real world mission of the same scope as described, but added in the relevant political and support functions needed to make that happen. IF the mission were to rescue the hostages without training the HN forces, you chose the wrong assets to accomplish the mission, and the fact that due to the surrounding countries you would need Arabic, French and Italian speakers to interface with the locals/Boko Haram... these speakers would need to be as highly trained as the American forces... So, we need Italian SF/Paras and LEdF ReT 3... The D boys and Rangers are abetter choice from the American side - set out in multiple mixed units to get at the scattered Bn minus compounds - probably using HALO or HAHO infiltration due to probable remoteness and lack of infrastructure....

Don't change what you said to support your point - I set out the needs to train for an immediate mission as advisors, within the current political constraints of the area and world opinion, not as combat troops... YOU set the parameters and failed to take into consideration the further ramifications of the plan you suggested without knowing the state of the units to be trained and the trust level of the Trainers for the Trainees... and just where is your intel coming from for free? I want to know how you did that.

 

[JBS]

What would happen if the mission failed(which is likely)? All those friends you think we would make would suddenly not be so friendly.

This is the most compelling reason I've read so far on why such an endeavor could very easily backfire. A hastily executed failed mission that resulted in hundreds of dead little girls would be about as big of a disaster as one could imagine. The only comment I'd interject is this thread is devoid of anything like a threat assessment. We haven't talked about the level of hardness of the target(s) on any level, and until we do, it's a bit tough to start to throw together even the loosest numbers on likelihood of success.

About 90% of the picture just isn't available to us (and by us I mean most of us here), in terms of target hardness. Boko Haram is broken down into about a half dozen "families", with only a small percentage of them having anything that would resemble quality training. They're extremely violent, responsible for the slaughter of more than 10,000 people since about 2000 IIRC; much of that killing, however, was perpetuated by 12 and 13-year-old boys. They do the child soldier thing.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Your scenario was to train the HN forces to accomplish the mission in 60 days for $1.6 Million with a single unsupported ODA sized force, or was I mistaken?

Yep, put some guys covertly on the ground through commercial means, take their forces (Nigerian CT btn) and spend some time honing their skills and assist them with their planning. At the same time get some IC guys who know the A/O and give them a million dollars cash to buy whatever information they can.

I took your stated parameters and used them as a basis for a real world mission of the same scope as described, but added in the relevant political and support functions needed to make that happen. IF the mission were to rescue the hostages without training the HN forces, you chose the wrong assets to accomplish the mission, and the fact that due to the surrounding countries you would need Arabic, French and Italian speakers to interface with the locals/Boko Haram... these speakers would need to be as highly trained as the American forces... So, we need Italian SF/Paras and LEdF ReT 3... The D boys and Rangers are abetter choice from the American side - set out in multiple mixed units to get at the scattered Bn minus compounds - probably using HALO or HAHO infiltration due to probable remoteness and lack of infrastructure....

I never once said we should deploy any combat forces, and I don’t think we should. I think we should give them Intel, Training, Planning and Advisory assistance. Nothing more and nothing less. If they want it, cool, if not, we offered. My overall point was that we did not have to spend millions of billions of dollars to offer that form of assistance.

Don't change what you said to support your point - I set out the needs to train for an immediate mission as advisors, within the current political constraints of the area and world opinion, not as combat troops... YOU set the parameters and failed to take into consideration the further ramifications of the plan you suggested without knowing the state of the units to be trained and the trust level of the Trainers for the Trainees... and just where is your intel coming from for free? I want to know how you did that.

Go back and read what I posted, it has not been edited and I am not spinning things around, etc. You guys keep getting stuck on making this a “Team America” rescue mission b/c that would give a better success ratio, I wont disagree that the success percentage will increase, but that shouldn’t happen. We should not be sending our forces in there to rescue these girls; the Nigerians will not want our forces on the ground in that capacity. Throughout this thread, I have never stated “send the Rangers and everyone else”. I said we should be doing something, and I spelled that out in offering some FID and IC assistance to the Nigerian forces.

A couple of you stated that my 60 days with $1,515,600 budget idea is not enough time and not enough funds. So okay, its not enough time or funds, I got it, no worries. I am not disagreeing with you or anyone else, I am just stating I crunched the number using googlefu, and I can pay travel, housing, meals, incidentals, and a $500 a person day rate to put 12 guys on ground for 60 days. That’s with giving them way more spending cash than they would need and rounding the funds up everywhere I went, and the grand total was $515,600. I tossed in $1 million cash to buy information and grease wheels (i.e. develop some informants, pay off locals, etc). I never said that’s what an SFODA would need, I never said that that would guarantee 100% recovery of all the school girls, I simply stated based on the number crunching, you could put 12 knowledgeable people on the ground for that amount, that can give some assistance to the Nigerian security forces.

So that would not be helpful in your opinion, I got it, again, no worries...