Opinions on Afghanistan

[Mac_NZ]

The internet sound of the nail being hit on the head

The Troll nailed it. IMHO to succeed the focus needs to move off Afghanistan as a whole and towards the tribal groups. A lot of what needs to be done is SF work backed up by the big Army stick. By that I don't mean just kicking in doors and grabbing HVTs I mean teaching these people a better way and getting them involved in the fight. Most of the Afghanis I met were Hazaran and were very anti-taliban which does shape my thoughts on the matter. A central govt will never rule completely in that country. If you can get the provinces onside one by one the country will follow. Hand in hand with that the external support and safe haven needs to end, if the Pakis don't want to come to the party than maybe they need to be brought kicking and screaming.

 

[Looon]

Until we look at the area with a less politically modern set of eyes, we are going to end up as every other civilization that has tried to control the area - mired and confused and stymied.

And there you have it.

I firmly believe that Afganistan is 'unconquerable'.

Going in with guns a blazen has never worked.

 

[Boondocksaint375]

I don't think it's necessarily unconquerable, we just need to adapt and overcome the correct way.

 

[AWP]

I don't think it's necessarily unconquerable, we just need to adapt and overcome the correct way.

I agree. People that know me know I'm a pessimist, but I do believe that we can beat down al Q, the TB, the HiG, the HiK, and anyone else that tries to stop a legitimate, pro-Western government from taking root. I believe that we can turn this country around.

We've blown a lot of credit with the people here, but we can win them back. I don't think they've turned their backs on us yet, but they could if we aren't careful.

We can still win this, but will we?

 

[Looon]

We can still win this, but will we?

The "we" is the key. Does this country have the stomach and the will to see it through? I don't think so.

One thing that has always pissed me off, is that we haven't totally destroyed the poppy fields.

That's a whole other 'political' dynamic.

 

[x SF med]

And there you have it.

I firmly believe that Afganistan is 'unconquerable'.

Going in with guns a blazen has never worked.

Afghanistan may be unconquerable as a collection of tribes, but the war is winnable. Ther eis a large segment of the population that is anti-Taliban and Anti Al Qaeda - for purely selfish or tribal reasons. There is also a large segment of the population that is ambivalent, and wants nothing more than to survive, unmolested and without foreign (meant as outside the tribe/clan) influence other than trade. One needs to understand the mindset and motivation of the partisans and the resistors as well as the sympathisers to the current regime. We are not talking about Americans with the same set of learned and observed behaviors - this is a different culture and set of social norms. One week/month/year the guys across the valley are your allies, the next your bloodsworn enemies - and that is likely to change.

I don't think it's necessarily unconquerable, we just need to adapt and overcome the correct way.

see above.

I agree. People that know me know I'm a pessimist, but I do believe that we can beat down al Q, the TB, the HiG, the HiK, and anyone else that tries to stop a legitimate, pro-Western government from taking root. I believe that we can turn this country around.

We've blown a lot of credit with the people here, but we can win them back. I don't think they've turned their backs on us yet, but they could if we aren't careful.

We can still win this, but will we?

That remains to be seen if the right type of influence and or force is applied. Dropping off bags of drought resistant food crop seed could go a long way - further than guns in many cases. Show them better ways to irrigate, help improve roads and sanitation. And take out the leadership of the local arms of AQ, Taliban, HiQ, etc. - quietly and with as little fuss as possible. It's doable if it's done properly in conjunction with a good FID/UW plan and CA support.

The "we" is the key. Does this country have the stomach and the will to see it through? I don't think so.

One thing that has always pissed me off, is that we haven't totally destroyed the poppy fields.

That's a whole other 'political' dynamic.

Destruction of the poppy fields would be a diastrous step - see above for a better way to turn that corner. Why reduce an already scoured economy without some type of replacement - poppies buy food for these people, you need to give them a way to self suppoort, not a path to slow starvation and the grave - it's counter productive. Don't poison the river, teach them to fish and to conserve the fish population.

Can the politicians understand these methods - probably not, it is a hybrid that is totally foreign to them - Hearts and minds and blowing away the opposition all at the same time. Education, support and military action at the same time.

 

[Looon]

I saw a report early in the war. Growers were approached about growing other crops for export. They wanted nothing to do with it because NO OTHER crop would bring in as much $. The Afgan Govt was willing to overlook it as well.

 

[AWP]

I saw a report early in the war. Growers were approached about growing other crops for export. They wanted nothing to do with it because NO OTHER crop would bring in as much $. The Afgan Govt was willing to overlook it as well.

I think last year was the first year where wheat was more profitable than poppy. The gov't won't touch eradication with much vigor because Karzai's brother is one of the biggest exporters.

 

[Manolito]

I can only go on what I read I have never been in country. Only 4% of the available land is in production mostly due to eradic snow fall and almost no irrigation. USGS has found large deposits of minerals and natural gas but no production has started.

China has signed a 2.6 Billion dollar project to mine copper. Go figure we do the hard work and China moves in on the opportunities.

We promised $26 Billion in aid and have only delivered a small portion as well as the other countries that promised support have backed out on their support.

There is a real need for tractors and irrigation before we can expect the poppies to go away. In order to be profitable they will need mechanical plant and harvest equipment. I understand the poppie is scored by hand and the resin is harvested by hand not requiring any up front capitalization.

I truly believe if we don't fight on his soil we will have another loss on our soil.

 

[rwtbkk]

winning?

Well from a VFOG I can tell you winning is political. Don't matter how many bodies you stack up, it ends up with who is holding the plate at the dinner table.
So there are two problems.
First is perception of winning, unfotunately we never manage that part too well becaus there are waaay too many politicians who can make hay by nay saying (can anyone say Murtha).

Then there is security, something you will never have as long as an enemy has safe havens just across the border.. (believe me I know about this one). Without security no amount of aid works. Insecure people do whatever is best for NOW and screw the future.

Opium can be eliminated if you did what the King of Thailand did. He didn't destroy the fields. He brought in agri specialist, found the right crops then built roads to deliver it to market. The the farmers figured it out, more money and no one trying to kill them over the production rights. Worked. Some might call it enlightened...

And Afghanistan isn't much different than a lot of tribal areas. They all are on about the same level whether Africa, Asia or anywhere else.

I thought we learned this lesson once but then again we "lost" there so everone tried to forget it as soon as possible.

 

[crapgame]

FWIW, Rory Stewart - yes, him - was interviewed this week on a radio program called To The Point. I'd post a link with this to a audio file if I knew how.

I think he pretty much nailed the big picture about "winning" and "what we're doing there" and explained also the bigger questions we're overlooking.

I'd be interested in learning if anyone else has listened to the interview, and what they think.

 

[///M3]

saw this online, anyone read it yet? I'm just starting to stab away at it:

http://blog.stevenpressfield.com/wp-content/themes/stevenpressfield/one_tribe_at_a_time.pdf

"One Tribe at a Time"
Major Jim Gant

 

[car]

The Troll nailed it. IMHO to succeed the focus needs to move off Afghanistan as a whole and towards the tribal groups. A lot of what needs to be done is SF work backed up by the big Army stick.

I think the backup should be from the State Dept. Diplomacy and nation building is not the Army's job. We've already proved that point in Iraq. The USSD sent 2nd and 3rd stringers to Iraq who couldn't find their collective ass with both hands (because the 1st stringers didn't want to get their hands dirty - and disagreed with GW's policies), so the commanders on the ground did what they do best - ID'd a void and filled it, even though those filling the void weren't trained for the job. That's how Dave Petraeus made his bones......enough of that.

We shouldn't conquer A-stan any more than we should conquer Iraq. Just stabilize it so that there's no longer a threat to our way of life. They're gonna do what they want to when we leave anyway.....don't fool yourself. As stated early on - it has been, and will always be a global xroad - whether it's silk or opium, the goods will flow. Ameican ideas and ideals will never take hold. They've been getting along just fine without us since long before we became an "us." :2c:

 

[AWP]

We shouldn't conquer A-stan any more than we should conquer Iraq. Just stabilize it so that there's no longer a threat to our way of life.

Which is the issue..... Iraq is/ will be easier to accomplish, Afghanistan will be much, much more difficult to get to that point IMO. Calling it a third world country is classing it up a level or two beyond what it is. I think we are years away from stabilizing it such that it isn't a breeding ground for anti-American/ anti-Western threats. This is also a question of Pakistan as well, we can't divorce one country's problems or influence from the other. The result is that we have to "fix" two countries and not one.

I really question if we are up to it.

 

[Shifty]

saw this online, anyone read it yet? I'm just starting to stab away at it:

http://blog.stevenpressfield.com/wp-content/themes/stevenpressfield/one_tribe_at_a_time.pdf

"One Tribe at a Time"
Major Jim Gant

The link isn't working, can you post again? Major Gant is one hell of a warrior, I would follow him as my Team Leader any day of the week. During the period I was with him I learned more than I ever though I could.

 

[Mac_NZ]

Agreed SGM but I would't want to be working out there in the wop wops without the CSS, FSPT and Aviation assets that big Army has. I'm not too sure of how big a logistical footprint an SF Bn has, if they are self supporting in all those areas then it's a non point.

The link isn't working, can you post again?

This one will work Shifty. Just click on the PDF download link from there. I read this a few weeks ago, it's a very good read. http://blog.stevenpressfield.com/category/one-tribe-at-a-time/

 

[///M3]

The link isn't working, can you post again? Major Gant is one hell of a warrior, I would follow him as my Team Leader any day of the week. During the period I was with him I learned more than I ever though I could.

that's awesome. very cool that you had the opportunity to serve with him.

 

[7point62]

I think the backup should be from the State Dept. Diplomacy and nation building is not the Army's job. We've already proved that point in Iraq. The USSD sent 2nd and 3rd stringers to Iraq who couldn't find their collective ass with both hands (because the 1st stringers didn't want to get their hands dirty - and disagreed with GW's policies), so the commanders on the ground did what they do best - ID'd a void and filled it, even though those filling the void weren't trained for the job. That's how Dave Petraeus made his bones......enough of that.

The State Department needs risk-taking Foreign Service Officers as civilian counterparts to military units, people who will go out in the field and not just stay in the green zones. Military commanders shouldn't have to be saddled with nation-building, conflict termination, stability and political operations. There are plenty of experienced people, many of whom are contract employees of USSD or DHS, who'd probably jump at the chance for a career as risk-taker FSOs. COIN is as much political--if not more--as it is tactical.

 

[7point62]

McChrystal understands what stabilization entails and requires, the resources and time that it will take. The most important thing is that the focus needs to shift to the development of Afghan involvement in every phase, security, political, economic, governance, military, etc, (while the hunt for UBL and AQ continues). If this means long-terming the advisory efforts and/or extending tours of critical personnel to 18-24 months, so be it.

This can't be our victory, it has to be an Afghan victory. The US/UN/NATO/ISAF is not going to win the hearts and minds of the Afghans--we have nothing in common with them--only the Afghans can win the hearts and minds of the Afghans. We should move into a supporting role as soon as possible.

If the Administration wants to stabilize Afghanistan, it needs to get off its ass and send McChrystal what he needs: enough troops for security so the COIN/FID/Advisory specialists can work at ramping up Afghan participation to the point where they can dominate the battle and we can actually start stepping into the background. Obviously this is going to take time. The American/NATO/ISAF warfighters will have to buy that time.

Exiting is not the answer. Condoleeza Rice said if we abandon Afghanistan we will pay for it with another 9/11 scenario and I think she's right. If we give up and get out we will create a vacume, a free zone that empowers not only the Taliban and AQ but other Islamic Jihadist cells worldwide.

Unfortunately, I don't think anybody who keeps his or her job at the whim of the voters is going to have the balls to see this through. And I think Obama right now, with his indecision and delay, is like a mouse being chased by a fat lady with a broom...he wants to get the fuck away and he's scurrying around looking for a hole.

 

[AWP]

Great post 7point62, but one thing is missing: the new troops being requested need not arrive until we figure out logistics, infrastructure, funding, and construction. We have some bases here with logistical shortfalls, poor infrastructure, not enough room, and no plan on the books to resolve this. Winter is coming so we can rule out construction in many parts of the country. New troops arriving next year are going to look around and wonder what in the hell we did in this country since 2002. Those who have gone to Iraq will be treated to an entirely different world when they step off a plane in Bagram or Kandahar.

We can send eleventy billion troops over here and it won't matter without the proper amount of support. To paraphrase Gen McC: we can do everything right and still lose this war.