Sit down, grab a beer and put your feet up, this is going to be a long one.
As far as what I've been able to gather one of the sole reasons America is "lagging behind" now in terms of cyber space is due to the multitude of leaks that have occurred in the past 15+ years (Snowden, Shadow Brokers, Harold Martin, Kaspersky, Vault7, etc. ad nauseam). Even then, its less that we're falling behind and more of our rivals catching up through stolen Intel instead of through individual ingenuity. Look to China's fancy new stealth fighter which has many of the same characteristics that are individual to our own F35 for a prime example of our rivals paying "homage" to us.
In terms of a nuclear conflict, I sincerely believe it'll never occur outside of either a terror organization signing their own death warrant, or through human/computer error. At this point in human history I think all of the players know that if anyone decided to go ahead with a launch it would be the end of the world and no one would win.
What will most likely happen is continued micro wars between smaller states with background support through the big guys (Read: US, China, Russia). With "direct" conflict between said big guys occuring through economic and cyber warfare. I have no doubt that the US intelligence community will recover from this, with increased interest in recruiting in the various branches and not to mention the monumental embarrassments the NSA/CIA have suffered recently will increase funding and a drive for further advancement to get "back on top" so to speak.
In terms of Russia putting us on watch I believe it has more to do with China experiencing a surge in nationalism and militaristic interest unseen since Mao, Russia is looking to piggy back this new attitude and find someone to buddy up with so they can have support when it comes to confronting the US (i.e. trying to put us on watch). We're going to be seeing this attitude not only from China but from Russia for the foreseeable future, as previously stated Xi Jingping basically becoming president for life, and Putin moving to do the same with his latest act of essentially barring Alexei Navalny from even running.
Looking to the future, it will be interesting to see what the successor of Jingping will do, especially considering his predecessor Hi Jintao abdicated all positions of power after his term was up and in all honesty Jingping is a complete outlier in terms of the presidents China has had. In addition to whether Putin can continue his grip on the political spectrum in Russia.
In short, Russia while having made significant advancements in terms of cyber warfare and socio-political manipulation, is still playing second fiddle to China as well as fielding an outdated and quite frankly obsolete nuclear strategy. As long as Xi Jingping continues his strong rule and keeps advancing Chinese interests we'll continue to see Russia acting boldly.
Apologies if this appears convoluted or confusing, tell me and I'll be more than happy to explain further.