The China Thread (Threat)

[Gunz]

The Danes can resist. Other countries welcome the Chinese because they bring useful stuff. What are we offering? Democracy? Our Navy that steams around crashing into itself?

I have a friend who was a consultant to the NSC/DoD among other things. He says the only way to compete with the PRC is through technological innovation...for example: The Chinese are spending billions to build chip fabrication plants. We find a way of doing it better and they've got billions worth of worthless chip manufacturing plants. Make competition with the PRC a national security requirement, let DARPA, NASA and the big defense contractors innovate better tech than the PRC has.

On the surface it sounds okay but it would probably piss off the private sector because China makes all their software etc.

 

[Devildoc]

Does not sound like a man who wants a tariff war and full military control of the SCS....

Xi Vows Greater Access to China, Warns Against ‘Cold War Mentality’

Xi vows ‘open door’ policy amid foreign demands for market access

Facing trade war with U.S., China’s Xi renews vow to open markets, import more

 

[Devildoc]

I cant read the article without a subscription.

Try these:

Xi vows ‘open door’ policy amid foreign demands for market access


Facing trade war with U.S., China’s Xi renews vow to open markets, import more

 

[CQB]

Interesting, even though the first article is from last year. China is kicking the tyres in the western Pacific.
Chinese military base in Pacific would be of 'great concern', Turnbull tells Vanuatu
What’s really needed is an ole fashioned monkey stomp.
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Riots highlight Chinese tensions

 

[Devildoc]

@CQB , you always have a unique perspective. There's like a billion miles of ocean between the US and China so a lot of the perspective of the threat is academic. We are pretty insulated; joking aside it's not like we are at risk of war with Canada or Mexico.

 

[Poccington]

@CQB , you always have a unique perspective. There's like a billion miles of ocean between the US and China so a lot of the perspective of the threat is academic. We are pretty insulated; joking aside it's not like we are at risk of war with Canada or Mexico.

I dunno man, @RackMaster seems pretty pissed these days...

 

[Marauder06]

I dunno man, @RackMaster seems pretty pissed these days...

Only at his own government, lol.

What's interesting to me is that it appears China, and the Philippines, and Syria, and North Korea, and maybe even Russia, appear to be responding favorably (in terms of our interests) to the current administrations heavy-handedness and saber rattling. Does anyone else perceive this to be the case?

 

[Devildoc]

What's interesting to me is that it appears China, and the Philippines, and Syria, and North Korea, and maybe even Russia, appear to be responding favorably (in terms of our interests) to the current administrations heavy-handedness and saber rattling. Does anyone else perceive this to be the case?

I have, and I can't figure out why. They are probably responding favorably because they can't figure out why. Like him or lump him, Trump is unlike any other president; that is, he's unpredictable, and unable to be reigned in by his party. I wonder if these countries are saying, "screw it, the man is nuts, let's see what happens...."

 

[Marauder06]

The major school of thought in International Relations that covers the way the President governs is called Realism. President Trump appears to be a hard core Realist. I'm more of a constructivist myself but it's hard to argue with what seem to be the accomplishments in trade, economics, defense, and international relations under the current administration.

realism: Political Realism in International Relations (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

 

[Devildoc]

@Marauder06 , my first degree is poli sci/intl relations. I'm so old, though, that the only school of thought back them was to smite your enemies with plagues of locusts. In all seriousness, I fall in more with the realism perspective, but understand that the consequences for the negatives can be quite significant.

 

[Gunz]

Only at his own government, lol.

What's interesting to me is that it appears China, and the Philippines, and Syria, and North Korea, and maybe even Russia, appear to be responding favorably (in terms of our interests) to the current administrations heavy-handedness and saber rattling. Does anyone else perceive this to be the case?

Hard agree, sir.

Nobody respects weakness, especially bully regimes like NK and Syria. Putin is a macho man: he's more likely to respond favorably when he comes up against somebody who talks tough and has the power to back up the smack.

 

[Gunz]

Interesting, even though the first article is from last year. China is kicking the tyres in the western Pacific.
Chinese military base in Pacific would be of 'great concern', Turnbull tells Vanuatu
What’s really needed is an ole fashioned monkey stomp.
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Riots highlight Chinese tensions

I don't know if Australia or the US can compete financially with the deals the PRC lays on the table. China's got bags of cash and attractive incentives to toss around in poor countries that are eager to sign.

The people in the Solomons can holler all they want about low wages and unethical business practices, but their local leaders sold them out and ate the forbidden fruit...and no doubt lined their pockets in the process. Since when did the Chinese ever give a shit about ethics or working conditions.

 

[Isiah6:8]

What's interesting to me is that it appears China, and the Philippines, and Syria, and North Korea, and maybe even Russia, appear to be responding favorably (in terms of our interests) to the current administrations heavy-handedness and saber rattling. Does anyone else perceive this to be the case?

Talking only about China/Russia I would agree they are responding favorably. I believe both Xi and Putin would like their country to be the world's leading superpower and could care little about where the other two fall as long as the fall doesn't come at a cost of their end goal (not that Trump is much different). With the prior administration, I think they probably played the same game they are now, just differently, as Obama was a "pure" politician. The linear path of the future from Obama was more likely an easier task to project out including who would be where in terms of the US government and their positions for the next 4 years and possibly longer. If you know who is where, then the results of your decisions, and the projected response to your decisions have a greater probability of being planned out accurately. Trump changed all of that. I think that they realize that any drastic response they make, there might be a repercussion they have not planned on which could materially impact them. Until they and their staffs get the hang of this President, favorable response keeps things copacetic. I would think that based on their actions they are more likely to think he will be in power for another 4 after this term.

When I was in China the other year there were two distinct story lines I heard: Everything is great in China and it is the greatest place in the world to be, and everything is great in China but there is material concern about the future of China due to the fact the economics of the state aren't fully known. Travelling around from Beijing to HK that story didn't really change, but what become very pronounced when I got to HK was talking with folks about how much the money laundering areas in HK were hurting due to tighter restrictions on the very wealthy. Normally, the mainland helps bolster the HK economy, but talking with directors of certain businesses they were noticing that restrictions on capital leaving the mainland was significantly hurting business in HK and Macau.

My .02 for what little it is worth.

 

[CQB]

The riots I mentioned above were in 06 but if a bunch of islanders can convey a blunt message, it looks like it can be done. The riot destroyed 90% of Chinese property & businesses.
The next western Pacific spot to watch is Bougainville, which has a significant election next year.

 

[AWP]

China doesn't want a Cold War mentality?
The islands its built in the Pacific, buzzing our aircraft, the on again/ off again support for NK...but it doesn't want tensions to escalate?

Please....

 

[Isiah6:8]

China doesn't want a Cold War mentality?
The islands its built in the Pacific, buzzing our aircraft, the on again/ off again support for NK...but it doesn't want tensions to escalate?

Please....

China loves it. Xi has a history (as does China), of saying one big thing publicly while manipulating big things behind the scenes for China.

I think Xi's response the other night was a bunch of hogwash but right now they can't afford to get materially impacted economically so they say some nice things on TV and go back to doing what they do.

 

[Grunt]

China will always be China just like Russia will always be Russia!

They say one thing in public and do another in private.

Those are principles that will never change unless they have a *complete* transfusion of the old way of thinking....

 

[Gunz]

I think the Trump administrations hardline approach prompted Xi to say what he did. Yes, China is doing many provocative things, but there may be growing uncertainty in Beijing (and Pyongyang) that they're going to push things too far.

The South China Sea, the Sea of Japan, the Indo-Pacific are brimming with warships. US Carrier Strike Group 5, Australian Navy, S. Korean Navy, Japanese Navy, French Navy, Indian Navy, everybody engaged in freedom of passage operations in China's backyard swimming pool, not to mention US & PRC submarines playing underwater hide n seek.

It's only a matter of time before things get ugly. The PRC is risking war. And war is bad for the kind of business the PRC has been conducting.

US carrier sails in disputed sea as China shows own force

The Chinese have got one operational aircraft carrier. We have twelve. We're not playing dead in the SCS. We're ready to go. All it's gonna take is an incident.

 

[CQB]

The five Japanese commands have just been united under one command for the first time since WW2.

 

[RackMaster]

I dunno man, @RackMaster seems pretty pissed these days...

@Marauder06 is right. Canuckistan is run by a full blown Marxist puppet that admires China's basic dictatorship. I'm sure if he could get away with it, we'd be a Chinese territory by end of the week. I was shocked when he took such a hard line against Russia.