The China Thread (Threat)

China is patient, they don't have to take Taiwan by force. They would most likely go in on small scale under the guise of some sort of emergency, disrupt the Taiwanese gov and then have some kinda of sham vote/legal proceedings to bring them under China's control.

Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are the ones who are in trouble if we allow China to gain major control in the region.

Manufacturing and military dominance, China wants both in that region, and the Chinese have not forgotten what Japan did to them in the 1930-40's. They play nice now because of our assured defense agreement with Japan, if that were to waver in any way, China would thump the hell out of Japan.

$.02
 
China is patient and wants to do this as close to bloodlessly/fait accompli as possible. They wait as long as they perceive that their relative power vs whoever might respond (Taiwan, Taiwan backed by US, etc) is growing. IMO, as soon as they see that curve hit an apex and start to move the other direction (strategically and permanently, not momentarily), they go for it.

The only thing stopping them today is that it's assessed to be easier tomorrow.
 
Kheenbish said:
100% agree. IO is a huge capability that is being built up by China. While attending a recent Rand Corp. open source presentation, they spoke about the PRC's interest in heavily building up their Information Operations Unit which has Cyber and EW falling under it.

Was trying to navigate their website to find the white paper, but couldn't locate it. However, found a nice breakdown of the PLA's modernization efforts.
Click to expand...

Check out Else B Kania @ElsaKania (Twitter).

She’s written a few solid papers on PRC, specifically covering the very recently raised Strategic Support Force as well as fused military civil integration.

I’ll be even more direct:

I don’t see China EVER wanting a kinetic fight with the US.

It’s bad for business. The business of the PRC staying in power permanently

I definitely see China having several Operation Urgent Fury/Grenada type options on standby to:
1)Give it’s professional military a chance to show off it’s modernisation shift
2)Signal China’s growing dominance.
3)Provide an external focal point distraction

I think a kinetic invasion of Taiwan would represent too much of an unknown risk for PRC leadership and would run contrary to Chinese policy of incrementalism combined with Sun Tsu: The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

So I think it’s reasonable to think the PLA will remain below the public detectability threshold in terms of size, speed, and scale to prevent a US response.

I’m far more worried about One Belt, One Road(20-50x Marshall Plan) being used to integrate the planet’s economy around China combines with BATH:
Baidu
Alibaba
Tencent(WeChat)
Huawei

All of which are integrated into China/PLA diplomacy and foreign policy functioning in a combined arms unity of effort.

I believe we are far too worried about a near future kinetic fight when a much less exciting but far more insidious and largely one sided battle is being fought,

Just my 0.02c
 
The way I look at it China sees Taiwan as a territory when history says other wise. China expands infiltrates and enforce their Ideologies and laws on people when it sees fit.IMO the Iran build up is like a play action pass for the Chinese in some type of way.
 
The issue is greater than Taiwan. The PRC regards Tibet & Hong Kong, along with Taiwan as rebel provinces which have to be returned. There is also the Second Island Chain, which stops at the western tip of Irian Jaya. Drop a line directly south & where do you end up? (That's funny, last time I looked there was a Chinese lease on the port, the only major port that links the Indian/Pacific). Also, given the PRCs' propensity for debt trap diplomacy, the island nations of the entire western Pacific haven't fallen into this piece of economic entrapment, if they that haven't already.
 
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CQB said:
The issue is greater than Taiwan. The PRC regards Tibet & Hong Kong, along with Taiwan as rebel provinces which have to be returned. There is also the Second Island Chain, which stops at the western tip of Irian Jaya. Drop a line directly south & where do you end up. (That's funny, last time I looked there was a Chinese lease on the port, the only major port that links the Indian/Pacific). Also, given the PRCs' propensity for debt trap diplomacy, the island nations of the entire western Pacific have to not fall into this piece of economic entrapment, or those that haven't already.
Click to expand...

Kenya may be about to lose some major infrastructure assets.

Cambodia has China debt issues as well.

Southwest Pacific, like Fiji and Solomon Islands have been on the board for a while.

Solomon Islands was one of the last vestiges of the China/Taiwan

My guess with Taiwan is that China would strongly prefer taking Taiwan back without a single shot fired, or as few fired as possible.

I see most of their strategy as economic/political warfare.

Civil military fusion is much, much stronger and more granular/unified with China.
 
Devildoc said:
I think if China was to surround and quarantine the island the whole world would lash out. I don't think China would do that. The economic sanctions alone would cripple their economy to the point that they would resemble the 1800s. I also think at that point some non -Chinese subs in the strait would be engaging in target practice.
Click to expand...

I don’t think “the world” would do anything without the US. If the US doesn’t act, no one else has the capability + will to do anything other than make strongly worded statements.
 
Marauder06 said:
I don’t think “the world” would do anything without the US. If the US doesn’t act, no one else has the capability + will to do anything other than make strongly worded statements.
Click to expand...
0

Agreed.

But in having said that, I don’t see a realistic/likely scenario where China invades Taiwan.

Absorb over 10/20 years? Yes.

Invade over 10/20 days? No.

If I had to guess at future Chinese kinetic action it would be a 1983 Grenada-like action to display China’s return to the global stage, but with external distraction motivations more akin to the Argentine junta invading the Falklands in 1982.

Started on a Friday after global markets close, gains consolidated, and global markets assured by Sunday evening, but continuing to be harvested for external distraction. A bit like the 2016 Turkish coup.....except 100% likelihood of success.

I think China’s strategy towards Taiwan is not too different from it’s strategy towards the US:

Very long-term, very slow, below the threshold of public detectability to deter counter-mission...patient like an anaconda, not an obvious strike like a cobra.

More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.

Just my 0.02c
 
CQB said:
If everyone can tear themselves away from their cigars & etc., what's happening in Hong Kong is brilliant, if you'd care to notice. The Hong Kongers are serving it up to the PRC in spades, this is even better than the Umbrella Revolution.
Click to expand...

It's a brilliant example of the holes in China's economy and control. It goes to show that even though China owns this piece of land, the people don't see themselves as under the PRCs rule. This is a good example of how the takeover of Taiwan would pan out, post China's takeover of Taiwan.
 

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