It’s been on for a couple of days now & looks nation wide.
Iranians chant ‘death to dictator’ in biggest unrest since crushing of protests in 2009
Iranians chant ‘death to dictator’ in biggest unrest since crushing of protests in 2009
Another interesting thing I've read about the 2009 protests - and may apply to the current ones - is that it displays both the strength and weakness of social media 'resistance.' The crux of the argument goes that social media makes it easy to organize massive protests and generate large organizational structures for political action. However, because social media makes it easy the political organizations that arise do not have the depth, strength, or organization to truly affect change - they can draw big crowds for a few weeks but can't play the long game. In contrast, political 'resistance' organizations like the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt have had to spend time in prison, live in hiding, publish literature, build a political organization in difficult circumstances - and thus have a better long game.
Is the lack of "staying power" because of social media or because the participants don't have a physical sense of participation? Social media and something like prison are vastly different beasts. With SM one can distance themselves (to a certain degree) from reprisals unlike prison. If you're imprisoned you have no choice but to play the long game, whereas social media offers a lot of "outs" for lack of a better word.
To me, social media means you can run your mouth without total commitment, but something like prison where physical danger and hardship are present.... that's as real as it gets. Social media allows distance at (usually) minimal cost.
Some of the Iranian military/militia would have to take their weapons and join the protests in order for this to turn into a conflict with real teeth. What are the chances of that? I doubt the military has much freedom to engage in social media so the rank and file might be somewhat out of the loop for the short term..
But in '78, the protests against the Shah led to general strikes that culminated in a strike by oil workers that pretty much shut down the economy...And then it was the Army high command that started to reach out to the protest leaders.
It's possible if the state of unrest continues to worsen, the same thing could happen again. The question is, would it have the drive and intensity of that earlier revolution necessary to sweep enough of the trigger-pullers along with it?
If Soleimani is in fact dead, it's good news for the West in the long term, as it deprives Iran of "the most powerful operative in the Middle East today." But Soleimani is revered inside of Iran, having risen from his humble peasant roots to the head of the largest and most active terrorist-sponsoring organization in the world. He earned his way up by battling some of Iran's toughest foes: Kurds, Iraqis, drug dealers, Israel, ISIS, and various militias inside Lebanon. He is a hero to Iran, and his "martyrdom" at the hands of America will drive an intense desire for revenge, and may even help distract average Iranians from the political dissent that has been percolating in Iran for some time now.
Some people are even speculating that this might be some kind of "Archduke Ferdinand" moment for Iran, which will strengthen the current regime and plunge the region into a conflagration of violence. What that will ultimately result will be, no one yet knows. But it is likely that dramatic attacks against US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as against Israel. It's also not outside the real of possibility that attacks against US interests at home could even be targets, either kinetically or via cyber. Increased vigilance for the next couple of months would be a prudent move for everyone.
Stay frosty, friends.
They also got Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the commander of the PMC (up until a few minutes ago). I don't know exactly what the various militias thought of AAM, but the hard-core ones are going to flip their shit over Soleimani getting capped.Reuters
Why did he feel safe enough to travel to BIAP? Did he not think US/Israeli assets weren't watching his every move, waiting for him to step outside Iran?
I think this is huge and I'd expect Iran to respond.