What about Latin America and the Cartels?

Thought I'd resurrect this thread for this. Declaring cartels terrorists is a great idea. Get a joint Op with Canadian, Mexican and American SOF; go head hunting. I guess we could throw in some Central and South American counterparts, it'd be a great training opportunity.


 
Mexico will never work with us. The best way, IMO, is to kill cartel leadership anytime they leave Mexico.
Limiting their travel isn't going to solve the problem, but it impacts people who view themselves as untouchable.

True. It would take the coming of Jesus to wrench Cartel influence out of Mexican government at all levels--local, state, federal. Even if it didn't exist, there's enough subsurface resentment of American interference in Mexican affairs to make cooperation difficult if not impossible.
 
We won't shoot down a Chinese balloon, we bow to China is so many regards anyway, there is almost a 0.0 percent chance of us going into Mexico. Yeah, back in the day the ISA and CAG went after Escobar and did great work, but we'd believe that the Biden presidency would turn JSOC loose in Mexico when we won't even acknowledge a problem with our own borders?

I think the best we could hope for is to send some ISR and ISA assets down with some bubbas to continue training Mexican SOF, but not running operations.

None of it matters anyway. Not a bit. Why do we have Mexican cartels? Because we USED to have very powerful Colombian cartels. We created a vacuum when we helped destroy the Colombians so who stepped up? The Mexicans. So we kill off Mexican cartels, who is taking over? In other words: how many #2's or #1's of the Taliban and ISIS did we kill?

We need to get the Mexican cartels down to a level of violence and importation we can control. That's our "win" here.
 
We can't even control what happens at our own borders, there's no way we're going to meaningfully influence what happens inside Mexico's borders through anything that the State Department does with a meaningless missive like an FTO designation.

The cartels in our hemisphere are powerful for one main reason: America's insatiable desire for drugs. And to me, a "War on America's vices" sounds slightly-less Quixotic version of a "War on Terror," and would probably have the same result as Prohibition.

The FTO designation is, like most of what the State Department does, pretty much useless when it comes to "combating" anything. I'll explain:

It took State until 2012 to designate the Haqqani Network as an FTO, when it was open-source to anyone who could read, and was readily apparent to us on the ground, that the ISI was more or less the "Delta Force" of the Taliban and AQ. Speaking of which, you know who never made it to the FTO list? The Taliban. Weird how that works! (they were given a separate terrorist designation, SDGT, which the HQN was also given). https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/

Why is the above true, you may ask? Well, because for decades now we knew that the "HQN was a veritible arm of the ISI." I recognize that the 20-year war in Afghanistan is pretty much memory-holed ancient history at this point, so for those new to this site, ISI is a wing of Pakistan's intel service. And, as it turns out, we needed Pakistan, because Afghanistan, the country we decided we wanted to invade, occupy, and "build democracy in," is landlocked and hemmed in by some powerful countries who don't like us very much (including Iran and China), and three inconveniently-situated former soviet socialist republicans with "-stan" in the name.

Take a look at the list of organizations that **are** on the FTO list. Notice any... similarities? I'll help: with a few notable exceptions they are, almost completely, Islamic militant organizations that almost no one has heard of and almost no one gives a fuck about. They are economically, militarily, and most importantly, politically safe to go after. And that's important because if you designate something an FTO, then hoooboy do you open up Pandora's box.

You see, if you give something an FTO designation, then there are all kinds of sanctions involved if you provide any material support to that organization. Given the extremely broad definition of that term, it could be just about anything. And if, I don't know say your erstwhile "ally" in the war in Afghanistan was found out to be, I don't know, providing material support to the Taliban, HQN, and/or AQ, then yeah, someone might expect you to #DOSOMETHING about it.

But hey, we did something about the HQN after they were designated an FTO, right? I mean, it's not like their main guy has a cabinet position in the new Government of Afghanistan, right?

Oh, wait...

At any rate, designating Mexico's cartels as FTOs is an empty political gesture that will probably cause more problems politically for the US in the long run than just maintaining status quo, because it will happen our ability to pursue other national interests with political figures in Mexico and Central and South America, because guess what, they all have their hands in the cartels' cookie jars to one degree or another.

You know who I would really like to see us get after? China. Topic for a different thread, but definitely related to the cartels issue.
 
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^So you're saying, in great foresight back years ago when they were still suicide bombing all over AFG, committing genocide against minority groups, and generally causing fear to people through the use of violence to further a political or religious agenda, that the Taliban were spared FTO status knowing they would eventually be the gov't of AFG once again? Or some other reason? Both mind blowing to me.

Overdose deaths from opioids hovered around 10k/year in the 1990s (mainly heroin), increased in the early 2000s as people started doing Oxycontin (but still heroin) then shot up more in 2010 as people transitioned from pills to heroine but was still around ~20k/year. In 2014 synthetic opioids such as the type that are manufactured in Mexico made from precursors from China, started killing way more people to the tune of over 100k/year today.

In my eyes...people are going to do drugs yes...but China together with Mexico are complicit in the deaths of ~80,000 drug abusers per year.

edit: heroin not female hero
 
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If we declared the Taliban an FTO, which they clearly were, then we wouldn't have been able to negotiate with them like we did. It would also have further complicated our relationship with Pakistan, which was sheltering and supporting the Taliban in, among other places, Miram Shah in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). Leaked NATO Report Alleges Pakistani Support for Taliban | FRONTLINE

This is, of course, the same Pakistan that was getting like a billion dollars a year in aid from us, while they were training, equipping, supporting, and (IMO) directing the people who were trying to kill us in Afghanistan.

...and oh yeah they were sheltering Osama bin Laden just down the road from their equivalent of West Point.

The above notwithstanding (and yes, I'm still mad about it), to get myself back on track with the topic of this thread, the Mexican cartels are dangerous to the US and our overseas interests, but they don't want to destroy America. Economic turmoil in the US is bad for their business. China, on the other hand, wants to destroy us. It is my belief (have no evidence to support) that China sees the fentanyl epidemic, which is absolutely fueled by precursors that they are allowing to be developed en masse in China and trafficked to Mexico and Central/South America, as both payback for the Western-focused forced-opium situation from back in the day (see Opium Wars) and as way to weaken America to the point where we collapse, either partially or totally. (yes, that was a very long run-on sentence, no, I'm not going to fix it) They'll take the short term economic hit, they DGAF.
 

In other news, breakaway states in the southern US are alleged to formerly support slavery, Capitalism is potentially "pro-money," and water is pretty goddamn wet.

Also, fuck a "retrograde", whatever that is...is that even a word?

ETA: It isn't like a book came out in 2005 that detailed ISI support for the Taliban as early as the mid-90's. It was pretty obscure text, I'm sure, not many readers I'm guessing.

Oh, wait...

The Pulitzer Prizes
 
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^I was saddened to learn that one of my favorite government groups aided the guys who were pioneers of throwing acid in girls faces back in the 90s because they fought the Soviets....
 
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