About china's aircraft carrier...

Marauder06

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We're decreasing R&D and military spending at the same time China is increasing theirs. We're going to be downsizing our military at the same time China is building up. At the rate they're stealing secrets from us, it's not going to be long before we lose our technological edge. China's power-projection capability is going to have some very chilling effects on US economic, military, and political affairs.
 

mike_cos

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From what I understand you say it's just a matter of time... what were the factors that affected the most? Political , social or economic? I mean, 9/11, Obama, double deep?
 

Marauder06

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Political. Every other instrument of national power (military, information, law enforcement, intelligence, financial, economic) stems from our political system. Next most important is economic. With both of those in disarray, everything else is going to be adversely affected.
 

AWP

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Equal us by 2020? I seriously doubt that.

Make control of the seas a very bloody battle? That I can see.
 

mike_cos

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Yet it seemed to me that the U.S. had lost sight of the China because they are too involved in the fight against AQ worldwide... but you are absolutely right when you say that you have in disarray political and economical system... (but it's a problem of almost all the western states today)
 

Manolito

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I know it is easy for you to believe the Navy has just sat on its backside while the rest of you fought the wars in the sand. There is a saying that goes something like this. There are US Nuclear Submarines in the oceans of the world and the rest are targets. Russia was never able to quiet their subs so we couldn't follow them I can assure you if we quit making anything new for the next fifty years we will be the dominant force in the oceans of the world. There are a lot of little countries that aligned themselves with Mother Russia so they could rattle the can and act like Mother would defend them. If the Iraq army bit the big bananna in less than ten days how can a Pakistan hope to rattle the can. So they go out and kiss some Chinese ass and hope that buys them a ticket to the big game. Remember a carrier is only a platform and the battle group is only carrier protection. The terror of a carrier is its air wing and you don't believe the Chinese have a plane capable of defeating all plains the US could and would place in the fight?
I don't buy it Mike
 

mike_cos

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I know it is easy for you to believe the Navy has just sat on its backside while the rest of you fought the wars in the sand. There is a saying that goes something like this. There are US Nuclear Submarines in the oceans of the world and the rest are targets. Russia was never able to quiet their subs so we couldn't follow them I can assure you if we quit making anything new for the next fifty years we will be the dominant force in the oceans of the world. There are a lot of little countries that aligned themselves with Mother Russia so they could rattle the can and act like Mother would defend them. If the Iraq army bit the big bananna in less than ten days how can a Pakistan hope to rattle the can. So they go out and kiss some Chinese ass and hope that buys them a ticket to the big game. Remember a carrier is only a platform and the battle group is only carrier protection. The terror of a carrier is its air wing and you don't believe the Chinese have a plane capable of defeating all plains the US could and would place in the fight?
I don't buy it Mike
Probably you are right Bill... but don't underestimate the dragon....
 

Marauder06

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I know it is easy for you to believe the Navy has just sat on its backside while the rest of you fought the wars in the sand. There is a saying that goes something like this. There are US Nuclear Submarines in the oceans of the world and the rest are targets. Russia was never able to quiet their subs so we couldn't follow them I can assure you if we quit making anything new for the next fifty years we will be the dominant force in the oceans of the world. There are a lot of little countries that aligned themselves with Mother Russia so they could rattle the can and act like Mother would defend them. If the Iraq army bit the big bananna in less than ten days how can a Pakistan hope to rattle the can. So they go out and kiss some Chinese ass and hope that buys them a ticket to the big game. Remember a carrier is only a platform and the battle group is only carrier protection. The terror of a carrier is its air wing and you don't believe the Chinese have a plane capable of defeating all plains the US could and would place in the fight?
I don't buy it Mike

Good points. I kind of think of it like this, when our President wants to do some saber rattling, pretty much anything short of war, does he send in a submarine or a carrier task force? Possession of a carrier task force is a huge step forward for the Chinese. In the future, when there's some dustup over the Spratleys or mineral rights in Africa or... whatever, when our President sends in one of our carriers, the Chinese will be like, "That's cool, I've got one of those too," and the risks for major confrontation are much higher. Moreover, the Chinese will be able to use their carrier task group to basically extort concessions from other countries. "You think the U.S. is going to risk war with us over you guys? No? Then you better get with our program before our MiGs reduce you to dust. Bitches."

As far as force-on-force between us and the Chinese, I think we'd win but I don't think we'd risk it. By 2020 I'm not sure some of the tensions we have with the Chinese, like north Korea or Taiwan, are going to be worth fighting over. And with Chinese weapons development, anti-satellite warfare capacity, and their cyber capabilities (likely based on technology stolen from us or developed by their scientists educated in our colleges), I think in the future they will be able to neutralize a lot of our current advantages.
 

Manolito

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I am not underestimating the Dragon Mike I am sure they are a real threat and Mara is in a better position than I am to know how things are now.
Is it possible the world is a better place with two super powers instead of one. If you are the only super power what incentive do you have to keep up the space program. We hitch hike to the space station now right?
Power is a strange thing and often needs balance on the other side to keep it from becoming corrupt. Even the US may need an opposing side to keep us honest and true to the cause of Liberty.
The Diesel Electric boats are very quiet and often worry people more than any other maratime threat. Their range is limited but they are very hard to detect when operating on Battery. Look at Janes fighting ships and see who owns a lot of Diesel boats. They may have a very real threat signature.
I would never say the Chinese are not a threat I just think it takes a long time to develop the tools of war and you can't just copy something and make it work all the time.
If you look back in time when President Carter was in office the world was sure the US was weak and incapable of competing with Mother Russia. A simple change of leadership brought about dramatic changes in the world and keeping hostages for example became a risky business.
As Europe struggles with its economy I have more faith in England and Italy overcoming their problems than I do a socialist regime like Korea or Cuba becoming a powerful projecting Nation.
Just my thoughts today and remember I was having a great time working research during the cold war and woke up one morning with a quiet ocean and all the sound signatures headed back to Russia. Then I had to go get a real job:-x the cold war was over and I think the US has had trouble focusing ever since.
Bill
 

mike_cos

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well said Bill... great post... but probably two superpowers are better then one... at least split the costs of mantaining the world peace...LOL
 

Scotth

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Militarily, China is not a threat to project power in the near term IMHO. They could be a threat beyond there region but it won't be until 2040 or later.

The Chinese are just taking there first carrier, which is a retrofitted old Soviet shell, out for sea test. That boat appeared to be the ramp variety carrier. To think the Chinese are going to be able to produce 2 carriers by 2015 that can challenge our carriers is pretty optimistic at best and ramp variety carriers are no match for our nuclear powered cat launched carriers. I will need to see far more evidence before I believe the Chinese are able to project any power beyond Taiwan anytime in the near term.

Like Bill said in his posts there is a lot more involved in sea power then just carriers and without having all the pieces to the puzzle and equal capabilities there aircraft carriers are nothing more then a show piece for generating national pride.

For the US and it's military I think economics is the biggest problem we face. Regardless of who is sitting in the White House economics is what provides the $$$ to be spent on the military. With huge deficits the military budget won't be spared. Additionally, with the gridlock we are currently experiencing our economy is going to take far beyond this administration and probably the next before the economy will be fixed.

The President can be pro-military or anti-military and it won't make a difference, we don't have the money today to spend on the military. Democrats don't spend on the military traditionally and the Republicans are content with economic disaster because they want to dismantle social programing and they aren't willing to participate in fixing the economy until they get those cuts. Even more dangerous is some of the tea party freshman are more then willing to cut defense which isn't a traditional position for Republican's and will make it easier for Defense cuts to take place because the House Republican's won't protect it. The Defense budget just took a $400 billion cut in the last round of cuts and it will take more unfortunately.

China is kind of like the Soviets were 30-40 years ago. I think we over estimate there capabilities and make them into the bigger bogey man then they really are. The Chinese economy is dependent on the US and there economy is slowing as well. They are huge and so is there economy and that is a threat but it also makes them fragile. They are hugely dependent on imports to keep there economic machine running. They have huge masses of people to support and huge borders that need guarding as well. The standard of living is starting to creep up as well. They're a problem that deserves our attention but I don't fear them as a military adversary anytime soon. I fear there computer hacking far more then I fear there military today.
 
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