Bulls and Bears - The Market

compforce said:
I'm not sure what you disagree with. I was sharing the day trade I made today. That was in the bear ETF so I was betting on gold going down, which it did. No opinions there, just a trade.
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To be honest I have to re-read stuff every time someone says bear and bull, yeah you're right on that.

compforce said:
Feel free to disagree. Ad revenue is getting cheaper because there is an oversupply and the market is saturated. Meanwhile the NFL ratings have been tanking so that's no big win. 1/4-1/2 of twitter users are bots. It's the same fallacy as the dot com era. Users do not equal revenue, especially on platforms where a user can have multiple accounts that are being calculated as 2 people. If they can monetize it and turn a profit, then fine. Their fundamentals are horrible as well. I wouldn't touch twitter with a 10 foot pole as a 3 month or longer hold. JMO, I truly hope you make some money on it. I'll be surprised if it ever hits $25 again.
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If it hits $25 I'm cashing as fast as possible. But I will probably sell before then. Other than the huge buy rumor I have to say it's pretty flat stock for the moment. One of the things with the NFL ratings that the NFL has been unable to calculate the streams into its ratings, which I wholly do not understand, but Goodell is an idiot.
 
ThunderHorse said:
If it hits $25 I'm cashing as fast as possible. But I will probably sell before then. Other than the huge buy rumor I have to say it's pretty flat stock for the moment. One of the things with the NFL ratings that the NFL has been unable to calculate the streams into its ratings, which I wholly do not understand, but Goodell is an idiot.
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The only buy rumor currently out there is a supposed Disney buyout, but Disney flat said they were not interested in November. The source of that rumor is intereconomia.com who has a HORRIBLE record with rumors. Here's the original article: Disney hará una oferta por el 100% de Twitter

It also says something that the spike yesterday was on rumors of Jack Dorsey leaving (which were deliberately false).
 
ThunderHorse said:
Other than the huge buy rumor I have to say it's pretty flat stock for the moment. .
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I was with a company whose ownership was a PE firm that owned 25% of TWTR pre IPO. They do news, they do news better than maybe anyone. Problem I see with TWTR is they don't really think they can monetize that at this point and are trying to branch out, which isn't working (see price). It is why I don't own TWTR and won't, because it appears they don't know how to monetize what they are truly best at and maybe they can't right now.

I highlighted your comment because a huge buy rumor is just a rumor. If there was a lot of truth to it you would see it start to get priced in. Great example is DEPO on those rumors and takeout price over the last 24 months. Not sure if I am filtered out of your view, but I would seriously consider alternatives in that space given the out performance relative to peers. Unless this is your first salvo in it on a value play.
 
So I got hit with a bullshit margin call (there was enough cash to cover it in the account, but they insisted on an additional deposit) by one of my two accounts. I closed that account after satisfying it. That took away my ability to day trade every day without being pegged as a pattern day trader. So now I am trading a combination of futures and the ETF's. I'm still specializing in gold, just now I am trading the ETF 3 times a week and gold futures (/GC) every day. The good side is that I can trade the futures as many times as I want without worrying about the PDT rules. The bad side is that it means I am very heavily concentrated in the future and subject to heavy punishes if I get it wrong. Yesterday was the first day I've traded the future and ended up with a $60 net profit. I think as long as I don't get greedy, I should do OK.
(as I was typing this, I lost $150 :P )

I definitely need to keep an eye on these trades, the futures move very fast...
 
compforce said:
So I got hit with a bullshit margin call (there was enough cash to cover it in the account, but they insisted on an additional deposit) by one of my two accounts. I closed that account after satisfying it. That took away my ability to day trade every day without being pegged as a pattern day trader. So now I am trading a combination of futures and the ETF's. I'm still specializing in gold, just now I am trading the ETF 3 times a week and gold futures (/GC) every day. The good side is that I can trade the futures as many times as I want without worrying about the PDT rules. The bad side is that it means I am very heavily concentrated in the future and subject to heavy punishes if I get it wrong. Yesterday was the first day I've traded the future and ended up with a $60 net profit. I think as long as I don't get greedy, I should do OK.
(as I was typing this, I lost $150 :p )
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Did you get hit with a margin call because one of the platforms decided you were a PDT and needed to have the 25k in the account to satisfy?

Are you going to use your system and see how it works with futures or does it already have data to track? I wonder because $10 a tick changes the game a wee bit!

I used to use futures to monetize cash in a few funds, but the issue was what you typed above and those swings on what could be up to 5% of a fund was not beneficial and could be considered speculative at times, so we went the ETF route. Also, if you make a calculation error in a future, the punishment can be much greater.
 
Isiah6:8 said:
Did you get hit with a margin call because one of the platforms decided you were a PDT and needed to have the 25k in the account to satisfy?
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No, the issue was that they used the account balance at the beginning of the day to determine the margin available for day trading during the day. I had held a big position overnight, liquidated it in the morning and then established another smaller position. The smaller position's initial margin requirement was higher than the day trade margin based on account balance at open. So I got hit with a margin call and deposit requirement even though the cash in the account was 3X what was needed.

Isiah6:8 said:
Are you going to use your system and see how it works with futures or does it already have data to track? I wonder because $10 a tick changes the game a wee bit!
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I've been paper trading the future for the last month and am going to be working it manually. Parts of the system will work, but the basis for it doesn't because the ETF has an underlying assumption around how far it can fall. The future has no such assumption. Also the future moves much much faster than the ETF. If I had 100k or so in there, I could weather the big moves and the system would likely work. With the size of my account, a single miss could take me below the cash requirement and end my ability to trade the future.

Isiah6:8 said:
I used to use futures to monetize cash in a few funds, but the issue was what you typed above and those swings on what could be up to 5% of a fund was not beneficial and could be considered speculative at times, so we went the ETF route. Also, if you make a calculation error in a future, the punishment can be much greater.
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The futures are definitely bigger risk, bigger reward. I lost $150 in about 3 minutes, but gained 200 in the next 10 so I'm ahead (barely). You definitely need to have some balls to trade this market...

One big bonus to me is that the fees on futures are about 1/20 of the fees on equities/etfs so I can also trade more often and a single tick up is profitable.[/quote][/QUOTE]
 
compforce said:
You definitely need to have some balls to trade this market...
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Amen to that, the guys that trade that stuff for a living have some ice in them.

compforce said:
margin calc...
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Gotcha, still a PITA I am sure.

compforce said:
Futures Algo...
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Makes a lot of sense, I am sure looking at the vol and having an algo decide initially is just way too risky until you get enough data and capital from it trading manually live before you start to explore that. Just looking at the move today is enough to make the pucker factor increase.
 
ThunderHorse said:
I just got rid of my TWTR holdings...a day after they get upgraded they post shit earnings.
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It's going to get worse too. I'd think about going short on them. Advertisers have stopped putting hashtags in their ads. That's a precursor to the advertisers pulling their cash out of advertising directly on the platform.

For me, I'm still playing gold. Net after fees I am up 13.08% YTD Gross I am up 23.96% The disparity is going to start going down now though. I changed the frequency of my trading and am making fewer, bigger bets to lower the impact of fees.
 
Going very long financials and health care. Looking at industrial allocations but not really my bread and butter. Trying to trade what I think will be the most likely reforms coming.
 
Right so four months later, how are you guys all going? I'm on a demo account on one of the major NZ traders (they're worldwide too). Learning FOREX at the moment, also doing well on some of the indices, mostly.
 
Net +12% YTD. Had a few really nice winners in AKRX, NVRO, ABMD, SF. Had some dogs, DEPO, OXY, AKRX (early on).

I would really love to see some volatility enter in. Unfortunately, I think that would only come with a material down move in the market which would hurt the middle class a lot more than it should as it usually does. I don't think that is good for the average, but there is a lot more to be made in a more volatile environment.
 

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