Covid-19

Blizzard said:
Time to seal it off like that shitty Kurt Russell movie from the 80's.
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That was discussed. And people left. Taking the virus with them. The chance of a surprise quarantine is gone. Even now, I'm willing to bet that more lower income people in NYC will be infected than wealthy. That's solely an opinion for which I don't have data on, but historically those tend to be the hardest hit.
 
BloodStripe said:
That was discussed. And people left. Taking the virus with them. The chance of a surprise quarantine is gone. Even now, I'm willing to bet that more lower income people in NYC will be infected than wealthy. That's solely an opinion for which I don't have data on, but historically those tend to be the hardest hit.
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Many of the wealthy have already left for their second homes in Rhode Island, Connecticut, the Catskills, and Florida. It's eerily similar to what the rich did throughout history, including back during the Peloponnesian Wars.
 
BloodStripe said:
That was discussed. And people left. Taking the virus with them. The chance of a surprise quarantine is gone. Even now, I'm willing to bet that more lower income people in NYC will be infected than wealthy. That's solely an opinion for which I don't have data on, but historically those tend to be the hardest hit.
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The argument from a few experts on the topic is to just open the spigot, let people largely get back to normal, while taking a more focused, tactical approach in protecting those at high risk. To me, there is a fair amount of sense in the approach.
 
I am no where near enough educated in the medical field to know what thst would look like. I get what you are getting at, as I think back to being a child and my parents taking me purposefully to a neighbor's house because they had the chickenpox and just wanted me to catch it to get it over with, but it seems to be playing Russian roulette and we lack hospital bed space to treat the potential fall out from that.
 
Blizzard said:
The argument from a few experts on the topic is to just open the spigot, let people largely get back to normal, while taking a more focused, tactical approach in protecting those at high risk. To me, there is a fair amount of sense in the approach.
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The interesting thing is that different countries and, in the US, different states and cities seem to be taking different approaches. After this is all over it will provide great data for what one actually turned out to be the best method and why.
 
BloodStripe said:
I am no where near enough educated in the medical field to know what thst would look like. I get what you are getting at, as I think back to being a child and my parents taking me purposefully to a neighbor's house because they had the chickenpox and just wanted me to catch it to get it over with, but it seems to be playing Russian roulette and we lack hospital bed space to treat the potential fall out from that.
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It's a bit more involved than I made it out to be. Russian roulette is overstating it. They're suggesting we gather more info to make intelligent, data driven decisions about who and when people can return to work.

By understanding the risk differentials, which appear to be pretty large, those at low risk could return and productivity could resume while more focused care is made to protect those at high risk. They don't quite have enough data yet to make such a call, although they may be getting there. As an example, one interview I saw stated the current info from Italy, with 10K+ deaths, indicates only 1.2% of deaths occurred in people under 50 yrs , only 2.1% occurred without some major prior underlying health issue, and only a fraction of that were both healthy and under 50.

If that continues to prove out, does it make sense to put civilization on hold, potentially for years, where many of those at risk could potentially die from other factors in the meantime?

That's kind of the discussion.
 
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Another story that, while unconfirmed, adds more fuel to the argument that all these numbers being reported from around the world are suspect:
Tokyo's infection spike after Olympic delay sparks questions

But, the silver lining remains the idea that the spread of the virus is vastly under-reported. As a result, actual number infected is probably much higher. This is good news because while infection rate is higher, this means death rate is even lower. This is because actual deaths are tracked much closer and more difficult to fudge. In turn, further evidence that this remains mild for most.

Why isn't the media reporting on recovery cases?
 
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Blizzard said:
It's a bit more involved than I made it out to be. Russian roulette is overstating it. They're suggesting we gather more info to make intelligent, data driven decisions about who and when people can return to work.

By understanding the risk differentials, which appear to be pretty large, those at low risk could return and productivity could resume while more focused care is made to protect those at high risk. They don't quite have enough data yet to make such a call, although they may be getting there. As an example, one interview I saw stated the current info from Italy, with 10K+ deaths, indicates only 1.2% of deaths occurred in people under 50 yrs , only 2.1% occurred without some major prior underlying health issue, and only a fraction of that were both healthy and under 50.

If that continues to prove out, does it make sense to put civilization on hold, potentially for years, where many of those at risk could potentially die from other factors in the meantime?

That's kind of the discussion.
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See, just looking at death statistics makes it seem as if this is really no big deal, and we should reopen everything.

But we also have to take into account just how debilitating this virus can be. When A gold medal swimmer says the virus is so rough he can barely walk without being exhausted, maybe that's the sort of thing we should be extrapolating.

Sure, its sucks that most businesses are taking hits right now; but how much more utterly chaotic would it be if a business suddenly has to shut down because half their staff is bedridden. Let that happen on a large enough scale, and isn't that much more likely to create economic chaos?
 
Cookie_ said:
See, just looking at death statistics makes it seem as if this is really no big deal, and we should reopen everything.

But we also have to take into account just how debilitating this virus can be. When A gold medal swimmer says the virus is so rough he can barely walk without being exhausted, maybe that's the sort of thing we should be extrapolating.

Sure, its sucks that most businesses are taking hits right now; but how much more utterly chaotic would it be if a business suddenly has to shut down because half their staff is bedridden. Let that happen on a large enough scale, and isn't that much more likely to create economic chaos?
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I don't think the suggestion is to reopen "everthing"; ex. significant protections need to be in place for assisted living centers, etc.

Caution is needed when looking at cases anecdotally. The virus may be debilitating for a period of time, but by most accounts, it's mild and many recover within a week or two. Did you hear about Tom Hanks and Eita Wilson returning to LA from Aus the other day? Me neither. But I sure as shit heard all about it when they announced to the world they'd contracted it.

As I've said before, that's not to suggest this novel isn't serious. It is. However, that also doesn't mean a thoughtful, risk based approach developed from quantitative data can't be effective. It's important to explore because the secondary effects of a prolonged economic shutdown are not trivial.
 
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Cookie_ said:
See, just looking at death statistics makes it seem as if this is really no big deal, and we should reopen everything.

But we also have to take into account just how debilitating this virus can be. When A gold medal swimmer says the virus is so rough he can barely walk without being exhausted, maybe that's the sort of thing we should be extrapolating.

Sure, its sucks that most businesses are taking hits right now; but how much more utterly chaotic would it be if a business suddenly has to shut down because half their staff is bedridden. Let that happen on a large enough scale, and isn't that much more likely to create economic chaos?
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And it also did nothing to any of the NBA players that were infected. So, what should we be extrapolating? That people react very differently to the virus.

Does van der Burgh have underlying conditions?
 

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