Covid-19

[DA SWO]

View attachment 32445

Stolen

 

[Totentanz]

Boy, things are happening fast and furious. Our university has suspended classroom instruction until further notice, people who have gone away from spring break are told to not come back until further notice.

I got the same - face-to-face classes are suspended in prep for a transition to online-only starting next week. I'm not sure it's necessary; in the grand scheme of things though it's also a relatively mild disruption that can be worked through.

 

[AWP]

GMBN, a mountain bike YT channel, has a weekly show where it covers news, race results, crashes, interviews, etc. Watching this week they covered how at least one rider was unable to compete down in New Zealand because he flew in from Italy and was quarantined.

Demonetized.

A channel with 1.33 million subscribers covering a legit news story had a video demonetized.

Insane.

 

[ThunderHorse]

GMBN, a mountain bike YT channel, has a weekly show where it covers news, race results, crashes, interviews, etc. Watching this week they covered how at least one rider was unable to compete down in New Zealand because he flew in from Italy and was quarantined.

Demonetized.

A channel with 1.33 million subscribers covering a legit news story had a video demonetized.

Insane.

How'd you find that out? I don't see anything from them. That means pretty much the entire network of channels will be demonetized since GCN and GTN also have Coronavirus news stories.

However, I would say that youtube ad revenue is small compared to what they bring in from sponsors.

 

[AWP]

How'd you find that out? I don't see anything from them. That means pretty much the entire network of channels will be demonetized since GCN and GTN also have Coronavirus news stories.

However, I would say that youtube ad revenue is small compared to what they bring in from sponsors.

A lack of ads. You have 2-3 "cut scene" ads for Toyota, but no ads on the bottom. I thinik it was Datto, a Destiny 2 content creator, who had a mention or two of it last week and his video was in the same boat: no ads at the bottom.

I agree with you on their revenue stream, but it still blows my mind YT is doing this.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

 

[Blizzard]

Sorry, but I'm gonna say enough bullshit.

I know of Michael Osterholm; he hails from my neck of the woods. More importantly, he's one of these "doomsday" alarmists. It doesn't help.

Consider some of his past "expert" forecasts:

Chicken Little

"...And, among these doomsayers, none has been more strident than former Minnesota Department of Health epidemiologist Michael T. Osterholm, now head of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

In a series of articles for the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, and Foreign Affairs, Osterholm threatens us with nothing less than the end of civilization...

...But now, Osterholm says that even the Spanish flu would be nothing compared with what awaits us next year, or next week. He forecasts that, because of population growth, the next pandemic will claim 180 to 360 million people (1.7 million in the United States alone)--and that's assuming the disease is no more lethal than the 1918 flu.

...Osterholm has been on the disease and terrorism circuit for a long time. In November of 1997, he published an article in Newsweek stating that the smallpox virus was in the hands of several rogue states, possibly including Iraq. He briefed Jordan's King Hussein on bioterrorism: In 1999, at a symposium held by the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense, Osterholm said, "If there's any doubt whether Iraq has smallpox, His Majesty told me a month before he died that he knew Iraq had smallpox." This claim formed much of the basis for the Bush administration's belief that Saddam Hussein's bioweapons program had illegal stores of smallpox. "Osterholm's story had a significant impact in high places" in the run-up to war, says one administration official.


In the wake of the hysteria over West Nile virus, which entered the United States in the summer of 1999, Osterholm threatened us with deadlier mosquito-borne infections, such as Rift Valley fever, malaria, and dengue. "It's going to happen," Osterholm told a 2003 meeting of mosquito-control experts. "As water runs down a hill, it's going to happen."
It hasn't happened..."

No More Crying 'Spanish Flu'

"...Michael Osterholm, director of the federal Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy estimated in 2005 in The New England Journal of Medicine, that there would be 180-360 million deaths worldwide and 1.7 million here if bird flu became readily transmissible between humans. He restated those figures during countless national TV appearances. His source: An extrapolation to today’s population from the worst estimates of Spanish Flu fatalities..."

Researchers: No strong evidence chronic wasting disease could infect humans, but it's possible

An infectious disease expert predicts chronic wasting disease will be transmitted to humans, and possibly in substantial numbers, according to a recent article in USA TODAY.

"In the USA Today story published Feb. 16, Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, was quoted as saying, "It is probable that human cases of chronic wasting disease associated with consumption with contaminated meat will be documented in the years ahead. It's possible the number of human cases will be substantial and will not be isolated events.''"

These are just a few examples...based on known outcomes! So, sorry if I don't take the word of some "expert" on the Joe Rogan show.

BTW: How does one get to be so wrong, yet still be called an expert. It's akin to being a Bigfoot expert.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

@Blizzard I get you don't trust the guy, but the majority of what's said in that 10 min clip is true. The initial estimates of the # of dead, cutthroat triage going on in Italy, rate of infection, morbidity, and supply chain issues are all very real. Reason I posted that Rogan vid is because of it's digestibility.

All this has been out on the web for days, weeks, and even months. Based on the information that has been out, we're in for a kick in the nads. Covid-19 is going to catch a large chunk of our populace with their pants down. Like it or not, Covid's here and it's about to lay bare the many deficiencies in our supply chains, society, and govt.

 

[GOTWA]

@Blizzard
Covid-19 is going to catch a large chunk of our populace with their pants down.

Maybe the toilet paper panic buyers were onto something...

 

[R.Caerbannog]

Maybe the toilet paper panic buyers were onto something...

Dude, forget the toilet paper. Imagine what's gonna happen when people can't get their meds or when schools start closing. Don't look at what people are saying, but what they are doing. The CDC and White House are giving pressers discussing covid impacts and worker protections for a reason.

Edit: Apologies. I know what you're saying is in jest, but many Americans live very close to the margins.

 

[AWP]

Part of the problem is that how this affects people is all over the place. Some are seeing a high fever and a slight cough with almost no other issues. Obviously, it is killing others as well. We can't predict how it will affect anyone.

Looking at the Johns Hopkins dashboard, worldwide mortality is 3.6%, but how many of those deaths are people over 60 or with compromised immune systems? Once those are factored out we're looking at probably less than 3%, maybe less than 2% or even 1%?

From the WHO, dated March 6:

While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

Worse than the flu, but also 80% have either no symptoms or mild symptoms.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Our greatest infection right now is fear. Some fear or worry isn't bad, maybe nasty-ass people will wash their hands now, but the worldwide response is a bit overblown. I'm washing my hands longer now, I'm making a conscious effort to not touch my face...stuff I should do anyway. I go home in May via Heathrow, but the only alteration to my vacation is that I won't visit my parents. They are in their mid-70's and dad has surgery in late April, my decision mitigates their risk.

Our greatest problem is a disruption to the world's supply chain, especially Just in Time supply models. A lot of this is being driven by fear, by a media desperate for news, anything to keep us tuning in. Russia and Saudi Arabia are in an oil price war...CNN has one mention on its front page, MSNBC has one, Fox has zero. This has some pretty large economic potential but it isn't juicy or salacious. "It it bleeds, it leads" is on display. The media vermin are fueling our fear and making this worse than it needs to be. I wish the impeachment circus was kicking off about now because the media wouldn't know what to do.

 

[Blizzard]

@Blizzard I get you don't trust the guy, but the majority of what's said in that 10 min clip is true.

Look at the source for a lot of the alarmist stories right now. Guess who's at the root of many of them? This guy. He's showing up all over the place..tv, news, prodcasts, etc. That's how he ended up on Rogan. He's being called upon by the media looking to sensationalize a story. It's not helpful and fuels the "panic".

He works in the field. He apparently knows a lot of stuff. He leverages a lot of facts. He should know better, however, he's chosen to be an alarmist. He's selling books (he promoted it in the Rogan clip). But here's the problem I have with him...

His forecasts have been wrong on every major outbreak so far! Yet, neither he, nor anyone else, ever mentions this important fact!

Here's another example:
- SARS: IS MINNESOTA PREPARED?

...Mr. Osterholm: As you may recall, in the first hearing, Senator Lautenberg asked Drs. Gerberding, Fauci, and me if we believe the SARS virus will return. We all answered in the affirmative, and even commented that though it appeared to be eliminated from the Toronto area, it may have been a prematurely declared victory.

Two days later, the second wave of SARS hit the Toronto area, and it would be another 6 weeks before that outbreak could be brought under control. I also suggested at that time that the reduction of new cases of SARS throughout the world was due in part to the heroic efforts of public health and nursing communities, and the likely waning of cases with the oncoming summer months. I still believe that conclusion to be true.

I am convinced that with the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere just a few months away, we may very well see a resurgence of SARS that could far exceed the experience of last year. We have every reason to believe that this disease may show up in multiple U.S. cities as we continue to travel around the world in unprecedented numbers and speed. With this backdrop, let me provide a few comments on State and local preparedness...

...Senator Coleman: Thank you very much, Dr. Osterholm. Let me throw out the first question. We haven't heard much about SARS for a while--whether it is fabulous outside--the cold and flu season isn't upon us yet. It has been pretty quiet. Both Dr. Osterholm and Commissioner Mandernach, are you surprised at the lack of activity? As we sit here today, how likely is it that we will see cases of SARS in Minnesota in the coming months?

Mr. Osterholm: Well, first of all, it has been relatively quiet, as you may know. We actually had a confirmed case of SARS that occurred approximately 3 weeks ago in Singapore. A laboratory worker that we believe actually was associated with ongoing contamination within that laboratory from SARS isolates that were obtained last spring. This always is a reminder to us that that virus is still out there, even in laboratories. And for no other reason, somebody who may want to potentially initiate a situation can do so without Mother Nature being involved. That was not the case here, but is a reminder of that.

As far as the potential for this to come back, I think that we believe it is very high. Once you have a virus like this in a reservoir or a location of animals that are wild in the population or confiscated and used for a food source, that is a constant source of that virus being reintroduced into the population, much like influenza or other seasonal viruses like that. So I think it is possible. Will it come to Minnesota? That is the million-dollar question. And frankly, it is a crapshoot. I hope not, but I think we have to be prepared for that event.

Perhaps he's taken it upon himself to ensure everyone is prepared so that an outbreak can be controlled and eliminated. Fine. However, if that's the case, I take big issue with his alarmist, "doomsday" approach; ie. scaring people into action. At worst, he's simply trying to capitalize on public fear by selling some books.

 

[Blizzard]

Part of the problem is that how this affects people is all over the place. Some are seeing a high fever and a slight cough with almost no other issues. Obviously, it is killing others as well. We can't predict how it will affect anyone.

Looking at the Johns Hopkins dashboard, worldwide mortality is 3.6%, but how many of those deaths are people over 60 or with compromised immune systems? Once those are factored out we're looking at probably less than 3%, maybe less than 2% or even 1%?

From the WHO, dated March 6:


Worse than the flu, but also 80% have either no symptoms or mild symptoms.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Our greatest infection right now is fear. Some fear or worry isn't bad, maybe nasty-ass people will wash their hands now, but the worldwide response is a bit overblown. I'm washing my hands longer now, I'm making a conscious effort to not touch my face...stuff I should do anyway. I go home in May via Heathrow, but the only alteration to my vacation is that I won't visit my parents. They are in their mid-70's and dad has surgery in late April, my decision mitigates their risk.

Our greatest problem is a disruption to the world's supply chain, especially Just in Time supply models. A lot of this is being driven by fear, by a media desperate for news, anything to keep us tuning in. Russia and Saudi Arabia are in an oil price war...CNN has one mention on its front page, MSNBC has one, Fox has zero. This has some pretty large economic potential but it isn't juicy or salacious. "It it bleeds, it leads" is on display. The media vermin are fueling our fear and making this worse than it needs to be. I wish the impeachment circus was kicking off about now because the media wouldn't know what to do.

Agree with this 100%.

Perspective is needed but it's not being provided.

Since Jan 22, 119K reported cases resulting in 4,300 deaths worldwide to date:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 119,245 Cases and 4,300 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

To give perspective:

Approx. 150K people die each die worldwide, of those, 100K die from age related illness:
Mortality rate - Wikipedia - sorry for the Wiki cite but it's the easiest to find

2019 - 2020 Flu season in the U.S. only:
Flu shot better than last year, despite tough season for kids
So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC.

2018 - 2019 Flu season in the U.S. only:
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season.

I'm not suggesting coronavirus should just be blown off, but it shouldn't be blown out of proportion either. The suggested precautions for prevention are no different than most of those for the flu; things we should be doing anyway.

 

[R.Caerbannog]

@AWP 15% of people needing oxygen, with 5% needing ventilation is going to break our medical system.

@Blizzard The Rogan clip was posted for it's digestibility, not because of the speaker.

Right now, I'm looking at Italy and what I'm seeing there is what I expect to see here in a few weeks.

 

[Ranger Psych]

@AWP 15% of people needing oxygen, with 5% needing ventilation is going to break our medical system.

@Blizzard The Rogan clip was posted for it's digestibility, not because of the speaker.

Right now, I'm looking at Italy and what I'm seeing there is what I expect to see here in a few weeks.

15% of people needing o2 isn't going to fricking break our medical system. Ventilation? Still a no.

There's so much in the US that kills more within our borders than this has killed internationally (granted in nations willing to share the information) that this is seriously a election year freakout that is intended to keep the "at risk" population home from the polls.

But hey, it's not like every election year there's some pandemic that you shouldn't be out in public as protection for. Gee. Wonder why.

 

[Bypass]

Just to get sirus (yes I purposely misspelled that) for a moment. This virus is very dangerous for the sick and the old. Virtually everyone I know is either old or sick. Heck, I'm 50ish and smoke two packs a day so it could and will probably kill me. My parents both in their 70s don't smoke but won't fare to well either. I swear this virus was created to cull the worlds population. Well at least all my family and friends will be hangin with Jesus while the world goes through War, famine, pestilence, and death. See you all on the other side.

 

[GOTWA]

Part of the problem is that how this affects people is all over the place. Some are seeing a high fever and a slight cough with almost no other issues. Obviously, it is killing others as well. We can't predict how it will affect anyone.

Looking at the Johns Hopkins dashboard, worldwide mortality is 3.6%, but how many of those deaths are people over 60 or with compromised immune systems? Once those are factored out we're looking at probably less than 3%, maybe less than 2% or even 1%?

From the WHO, dated March 6:

Worse than the flu, but also 80% have either no symptoms or mild symptoms.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Our greatest infection right now is fear. Some fear or worry isn't bad, maybe nasty-ass people will wash their hands now, but the worldwide response is a bit overblown. I'm washing my hands longer now, I'm making a conscious effort to not touch my face...stuff I should do anyway. I go home in May via Heathrow, but the only alteration to my vacation is that I won't visit my parents. They are in their mid-70's and dad has surgery in late April, my decision mitigates their risk.

Our greatest problem is a disruption to the world's supply chain, especially Just in Time supply models. A lot of this is being driven by fear, by a media desperate for news, anything to keep us tuning in. Russia and Saudi Arabia are in an oil price war...CNN has one mention on its front page, MSNBC has one, Fox has zero. This has some pretty large economic potential but it isn't juicy or salacious. "It it bleeds, it leads" is on display. The media vermin are fueling our fear and making this worse than it needs to be. I wish the impeachment circus was kicking off about now because the media wouldn't know what to do.

I might be in the minority, but I believe the numbers are a bit skewed because we don't fully know due to a) the asymptomatic infections and b) countries that hide the truth, like China. The fact the main stream media has sensationalized the virus also pushes me to not believe the hype because...that's what they do. /sarcasm I'm glad it took a story like this for people to stop acting like animals. Like you, I've become more cognizant about what I touch after washing my hands in places like the chow hall. It's rather unavoidable elsewhere though. The other day I was in the office and dudes brought in a bottle of purell like it was their saving grace. They all got a little bit of that action then went back to typing away on their keyboards. Like...what the fuck is the purell gonna do for you at that point? I watched a CSM in the chow hall yesterday wash his hands, sanitize, then grab his phone as he waited in the 10 minute line. Perfect.

I'm pretty big skeptic when it comes to the news. I tend to believe less based on the amount of hype. It's ignorant, sure, but the media has conditioned me to it.

@AWP 15% of people needing oxygen, with 5% needing ventilation is going to break our medical system.

Right now, I'm looking at Italy and what I'm seeing there is what I expect to see here in a few weeks.

I understand your worry, but it's simple statements like that that is causing all of the panic and fear. The fear is worse than virus at this point. You have Iranian's pounding bootleg liqueur because they heard it kills the virus. I mean, it does, in a way.

 

[AWP]

Tootsie rolls? I want full bricks!

That's what they were buying/ selling at Bagram and Kabul for $20 a pop (the rolls).

 

[Scarecrow]

We are at over 100 confirmed cases now and so far 3 deaths. One was 78, the others were 82 and 95. Two of them were already in poor health and in an aged care home. Whilst sad, a common cold have killed these people.

The hysteria and apocalypse type behaviour is causing more problems than the virus itself.

 

[Scarecrow]

*could have killed these people.