Israel and Iran

Iran is cooked.

Definitely some serious business going on behind the scenes. Tel Aviv to Tehran is 965 mi. straight line. Add in some of the strikes have been far south and it becomes way more than 1000 miles. They have to be using a bunch of their F-16s and 15s, both of which have about 500 mi range, unless outfitted with extra fuel tanks. Doubtful, we all know what they're hauling and it's not more gas. Israel has 7-KC-130H refuelers, and 7-707 refuelers. None of these are stealth.

What's going on with airspace? Israel to Iran flight path goes straight through Iraq. Iraq has over 30 fighter jets, F-16s and Czech L-159s, plus Pantsir air defense systems. They still won't let you in their country with an Israeli passport stamp. Hard to believe they're letting sorties fly by unimpeded to smash on their big buddy Iran, but that's exactly what's happening. People think Iran has huge sway in Iraq still, but most of that is gone. The mortal enemies are flying by a few times day and night untouched. Just a little rocket retaliation from militia in the desert. People have been waiting years wishing they would bomb Iran and now it's game on.

Everything is happening over Saudi air space. And if some of it is happening with Iraqi Government cooperation or plausible deniability then that will be interesting because they have been cozy with Iran no matter how much money we've thrown at them.
 
I'll be honest, With how many sorties have to be flying over Iraq to make this sustainable, how long have they been chit chatting with ol Rashid and Al-Sudani. At this point I'll pull back from my Saudi Air Corridor theory because damn. Also, haven't lost a single airframe?
 
I'm really torn on this one.
I'm with the 80% who don't want Iran getting a nuclear capability.
I'm also with the 53% who don't want to get involved.
I know those are opposite options.

I would totally support B-2's dropping GBU-57's onto the remaining nuke facility.
Yes, I know that means we are involved, but I want our involvement to end with airstrikes on a single target.

I'm also smart enough to know that strike will probably result in Iran activating the sleeper cells Joe Biden allowed in.
I am willing to deal with those attacks, and hope the FBI has them under surveillance.
 
I'm really torn on this one.
I'm with the 80% who don't want Iran getting a nuclear capability.
I'm also with the 53% who don't want to get involved.
I know those are opposite options.

I would totally support B-2's dropping GBU-57's onto the remaining nuke facility.
Yes, I know that means we are involved, but I want our involvement to end with airstrikes on a single target.

I'm also smart enough to know that strike will probably result in Iran activating the sleeper cells Joe Biden allowed in.
I am willing to deal with those attacks, and hope the FBI has them under surveillance.

everyone seems to be interested in their nukes.. and I'm like.. they're still the largest sponsor of state sponsored terrorism, right? also.. something something EFPs.. /shrug
 
everyone seems to be interested in their nukes.. and I'm like.. they're still the largest sponsor of state sponsored terrorism, right? also.. something something EFPs.. /shrug
I'm old enough to have played GALLANT KNIGHT and GALLENT EAGLE.

Boots on the ground quickly turns into a 20 year quagmire, no thanks.
 
I'm old enough to have played GALLANT KNIGHT and GALLENT EAGLE.

Boots on the ground quickly turns into a 20 year quagmire, no thanks.

I'm not suggesting that boots on the ground is the solution here either, but I don't agree with conflict fatigue keeping us from engaging at any level either. We wouldn't even be in this situation if we didn't have Democrat administrations constantly providing them billions of dollars. We are complicit in this.
 
Why is there this one remaining facility we “have” to bomb? Israel saved us the last slice of pizza? It’s so dug in only we have the capability to destroy the site?

This smells.
 
Why is there this one remaining facility we “have” to bomb? Israel saved us the last slice of pizza? It’s so dug in only we have the capability to destroy the site?

This smells.
The going theory is that they simply don't have the capability. The only weapon that is publicly acknowledged as being able to ensure the destruction of the Fordow site is the GBU-57, a monstrosity so big that apparently only a B2 can launch it. And the only country with a B2 is the US. And even then, it will probably take at least two of them.

There may be other reasons why the main site hasn't been attacked yet (apparently, the Israelis already struck the outer buildings). One, Israel may want to put people in on the ground, as a show of force, to gather intel, and to make sure it's completely destroyed from the inside out. Hugely risky but big payoff. Unlikely. Two, they may be holding this out as some kind of bargaining chip to Iran. "Hey, we'll stop bombing the shit out of you if you allow international inspectors in there to dismantle it." Again, unlikely. They may be holding off on that site until the end so that they can use their bunker-busters on other bunkers, and will do a spendex on that site at the end of the conflict. Less likely.

More likely, they're holding off as part of a plan with the US. Pres Trump keeps calling for the Iranians to come to the table. If/when they don't, a GBU-57 is a pretty good exclamation point.
 
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