Death by unga bunga lol.
Israel and Iran
- Thread starter TLDR20
- Start date
Also for @R.Caerbannog and the pizza delivery post elsewhere:
You can go to Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24 and see civilian traffic, plus some Mil, in real time. As I type this a pair of RAF Typhoons accompanied by a RAF tanker have flown in from Cyprus, coasted in north of Tel Aviv, and orbited near the Jordanian/ Saudi border. Very few civilian flights over northern Israel and none over central and southern Israel.
So this latest Israel/Iran kerfuffle is very interesting. And by "interesting," I mean "concerning."
So if I remember correctly, Iran-backed Hamas launched a very large and highly complex terror operation against Israel in October. Israel responded by going in heavy in Gaza, which is what Iran and Hamas wanted. Hezbollah, another terrorist proxy of Iran, participated in some of the subsequent violence a *little* but seem to be held in reserve for the most part as... I don't know a deterrent against Israel?
Israel blew up a handful of Iranians who were in a diplomatic complex in Syria, which seriously pissed off the Iranians, who responded by sending a whole bunch of rockets, missiles, and drones directly against Israel. This attack was pretty much useless except as a face-saving measure for Iran, since the US, UK, Israel, and even Jordan shot down most of the munitions Iran fired at Israel.
More recently, Israel murdered a senior leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which they took credit for, and are suspected of the death of a senior Hamas official who was blown up in Iran, which they didn't take credit for but everyone kind of knows that they did.
Iran has vowed revenge, and this time it probably won't be token, like what they did after we blew up Soleimani in Iraq, or feckless like the last big attack against Israel. While Hamas is largely in survival mode, Hezbollah is well equipped and organized and can rain down thousands of missiles on a large swathe (maybe all?) of Israel. If Hezbollah were to go all-out with everything they could do, both through the air and on the ground, and Iran decided to send everything they had, and also went directly after Israel's interest elsewhere in the world, it could be tough going for Israel. It would also cost the US a whole lot of money, and most likely, lives of American citizens and service members.
Iran looks SUPER weak right now, and one thing any regime wants to avoid is looking weak. Weakness is fatal. So now they're going to want to do something to show that they're not weak, and they are going to need to deter further attacks and embarrassments.
I think their response is going to be bloody this time around.
So if I remember correctly, Iran-backed Hamas launched a very large and highly complex terror operation against Israel in October. Israel responded by going in heavy in Gaza, which is what Iran and Hamas wanted. Hezbollah, another terrorist proxy of Iran, participated in some of the subsequent violence a *little* but seem to be held in reserve for the most part as... I don't know a deterrent against Israel?
Israel blew up a handful of Iranians who were in a diplomatic complex in Syria, which seriously pissed off the Iranians, who responded by sending a whole bunch of rockets, missiles, and drones directly against Israel. This attack was pretty much useless except as a face-saving measure for Iran, since the US, UK, Israel, and even Jordan shot down most of the munitions Iran fired at Israel.
More recently, Israel murdered a senior leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which they took credit for, and are suspected of the death of a senior Hamas official who was blown up in Iran, which they didn't take credit for but everyone kind of knows that they did.
Iran has vowed revenge, and this time it probably won't be token, like what they did after we blew up Soleimani in Iraq, or feckless like the last big attack against Israel. While Hamas is largely in survival mode, Hezbollah is well equipped and organized and can rain down thousands of missiles on a large swathe (maybe all?) of Israel. If Hezbollah were to go all-out with everything they could do, both through the air and on the ground, and Iran decided to send everything they had, and also went directly after Israel's interest elsewhere in the world, it could be tough going for Israel. It would also cost the US a whole lot of money, and most likely, lives of American citizens and service members.
Iran looks SUPER weak right now, and one thing any regime wants to avoid is looking weak. Weakness is fatal. So now they're going to want to do something to show that they're not weak, and they are going to need to deter further attacks and embarrassments.
I think their response is going to be bloody this time around.
I think there's more to that as well, but from the Israeli POV. I really think our current situation at home is going to be the driver behind their next steps. It seems like Israel is just itching to go all in, and with a potential Trump win, they won't get to do that. If they truly want it, they'll need to go soon so they get the full backing of this administration. And then Trump will have no choice but to eat that shit sandwich. With Lindsey Graham calling for action against Iran, their time is now.
ETA: There is nothing anyone can say to make me think we aren't going to war. For the last couple years I've been saying Israel kicks everything off for China and Taiwan.
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That's interesting. So you think the Israelis are acting now, as a hedge against a Trump win, because Trump will reign them in? I kind of think the opposite is true. I think Trump will be far more supportive of Israel than the Biden administration.
Locksteady
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I agree.
Israel has already largely won in terms of securing support from the US and, Trump and PM Netanyahu's off-and-on beef during President Biden's tenure notwithstanding, the meeting they had last week suggests they're both ready to put that behind them and double-time those efforts for Israel.
I think that's a smart strategy. They tried coexistence, they tried a two-state solution, they tried any number of things. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran chose violence. Now it's time to reap the fruits of that decision.
Locksteady
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I'd consider the Soleimani strike a good example of a direct aggression that could have triggered just that, especially if the geopolitical pieces and tensions then were how they are currently laid.
I don't think 'his itching for a war' necessarily has to mean intending to start one before other (f)actors aren't already well on their way towards that end.
Perspective by one of my Modern War Institute colleagues regarding Israel's strikes against terrorist leadership:
Israel has nearly wiped out Hamas' military leadership
Israel has nearly wiped out Hamas' military leadership
I know we had a/c waiting to strike back after the TBM attacks, but Iran smoked that civilian airliner and we canceled the strikes. I know we sent the Bomber Task Force over to poke Iran and we even had some not-subtle-at-all exercises trying to provoke Iran.
Why didn't we go to war with Iran? Don't know. Why did we keep provoking Iran even after we showed them we weren't going to strike? I also don't know. Considering Milley was neck-deep in intrigue, I've never ruled out he and others playing some role in our very odd stance towards Iran.
Trump recalled jets as they were taxing out after the Global Hawk was shot down.
He also said Milley kept pressing him to go to war with Iran.
I actually question whether he has the spine to go to war, a drone strike is one thing. Airplanes dropping bombs and risking getting shot down is another.
Topkick
Verified Military
He has a history of being against going to war. We can all opine whether thats a good or bad thing.
Then that's two strikes he recalled.
If Milley was so hell-bent for war with Iran under Trump, why did he shrink from it under Biden?
Jaknight
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I dunno if this some sort of sign
I was flying around Iran before it was cool.
Drones and SRBMs inbound any min now.
Drones and SRBMs inbound any min now.
Someone better tell the Emiratis, Europe to Dubai routes fly right through Iran and they haven't slowed down today.
Currently there's a Qatari AF C-17 flying south from Russia, NNE of Bushehr.
I saw a report earlier that markets are reacting badly. Some of it might be US-recession related, but some of it also might be anticipation of something a little more disruptive than token missile fire by Iran.
