Israel and Iran

[Cookie_]

Tulsi Gabbard the DNI saying the Iranians don’t have a nuclear weapon, and are not attempting to get one, then POTUS saying he doesn’t agree with her is just fucking bananas.

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/trump-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapon-testimony

Well clearly the AI process she's a fan of using is an older model that doesnt have the most up-to-date Iranian nuke data.

Know what else is tickling my little red-pilled brain?

So we are putting the USS Nimitz carrier group in striking distance. The USS Nimitz is set to be decommissioned in 2026. The admin has said repeatedly, "defensive posture, the only way we are engaging is if someone strikes Americans."

So you put an old asset in striking distance... and then let's say that ship catches a hypersonic missile... that drags us in to the conflict in a real sense.

Good thing no one involved in this little regional skirmish has ever committed a false flag attack on a war ship with the express purpose of dragging America into a war against one of their enemies, right? RIGHT??

 

[Gunz]

I am shocked that Israel was capable of this. I seriously have to wonder if they straight up set up a FARP in the desert. Would not surprise me.

I’m not too surprised. Israel has been outsmarting its enemies since 1948. You have a well educated technically sophisticated Israeli population pitted against dogmatic, fanatically religious, autocratic dictatorships with some modern weapons but who still have their heads stuck in the 8th century.

 

[TLDR20]

I’m not too surprised. Israel has been outsmarting its enemies since 1948. You have a well educated technically sophisticated Israeli population pitted against dogmatic, fanatically religious, autocratic dictatorships with some modern weapons but who still have their heads stuck in the 8th century.

It is still impressive to have fighters with a 600 mile combat radius loitering 1500 miles away.

 

[TLDR20]

 

[Gunz]

It is still impressive to have fighters with a 600 mile combat radius loitering 1500 miles away

Yes, sir, absolutely

 

[CQB]

 

[ThunderHorse]

I am shocked that Israel was capable of this. I seriously have to wonder if they straight up set up a FARP in the desert. Would not surprise me.

I'm not shocked at maybe one or two waves. Known they've had the capability for this even if they had to go the long way (they didn't). What surprises me is the ability to sustain the aerial campaign. This operation clearly has been building for some time. But they can also launch cruise missiles from their submarines which I don't think we've seen yet in this short conflict.

 

[AWP]

Israel has KC-130’s and Iran has a lot of desert.

 

[Gunz]

It is still impressive to have fighters with a 600 mile combat radius loitering 1500 miles away.

Israel’s in-flight refueling capabilities are limited. Over the last few days there’s been an unusual uptick of KC-135 traffic headed east over the Atlantic, fueling (no pun intended) speculation that we are involved in those operations…or planning significant operations of our own.

6th Air Refueling Wing is at MacDill and the word around here is they’re headed east.

 

[TLDR20]

Israel’s in-flight refueling capabilities are limited. Over the last few days there’s been an unusual uptick of KC-135 traffic headed east over the Atlantic, fueling (no pun intended) speculation that we are involved in those operations…or planning significant operations of our own.

6th Air Refueling Wing is at MacDill and the word around here is they’re headed east.

Yes, but they are dragging US fighters, and they left today.

 

[amlove21]

Tehran getting hammered, time now.

 

[Jaknight]

Iran keeps saying there is a big surprise tonight something the world will remember. I really can’t think of anything besides they surrender

 

[Ooh-Rah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934815615073542569

 

[AWP]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934815615073542569

Dubai is picking up someone or something.

 

[Gordus]

Interesting discussion about the Israeli air campaign.

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

I am shocked that Israel was capable of this. I seriously have to wonder if they straight up set up a FARP in the desert. Would not surprise me.

Iran is cooked.

Definitely some serious business going on behind the scenes. Tel Aviv to Tehran is 965 mi. straight line. Add in some of the strikes have been far south and it becomes way more than 1000 miles. They have to be using a bunch of their F-16s and 15s, both of which have about 500 mi range, unless outfitted with extra fuel tanks. Doubtful, we all know what they're hauling and it's not more gas. Israel has 7-KC-130H refuelers, and 7-707 refuelers. None of these are stealth.

What's going on with airspace? Israel to Iran flight path goes straight through Iraq. Iraq has over 30 fighter jets, F-16s and Czech L-159s, plus Pantsir air defense systems. They still won't let you in their country with an Israeli passport stamp. Hard to believe they're letting sorties fly by unimpeded to smash on their big buddy Iran, but that's exactly what's happening. People think Iran has huge sway in Iraq still, but most of that is gone. The mortal enemies are flying by a few times day and night untouched. Just a little rocket retaliation from militia in the desert. People have been waiting years wishing they would bomb Iran and now it's game on.

 

[Totentanz]

Iran is cooked.

Definitely some serious business going on behind the scenes. Tel Aviv to Tehran is 965 mi. straight line. Add in some of the strikes have been far south and it becomes way more than 1000 miles. They have to be using a bunch of their F-16s and 15s, both of which have about 500 mi range, unless outfitted with extra fuel tanks. Doubtful, we all know what they're hauling and it's not more gas. Israel has 7-KC-130H refuelers, and 7-707 refuelers. None of these are stealth.

What's going on with airspace? Israel to Iran flight path goes straight through Iraq. Iraq has over 30 fighter jets, F-16s and Czech L-159s, plus Pantsir air defense systems. They still won't let you in their country with an Israeli passport stamp. Hard to believe they're letting sorties fly by unimpeded to smash on their big buddy Iran, but that's exactly what's happening. People think Iran has huge sway in Iraq still, but most of that is gone. The mortal enemies are flying by a few times day and night untouched. Just a little rocket retaliation from militia in the desert. People have been waiting years wishing they would bomb Iran and now it's game on.

FWIW, SA-22/Pantsir is modern/advanced, but it’s a short range system designed for point defense of a high-value location, not denial of an entire area. I haven’t put a ton of research into this but based on the list quoted above would expect that Iraqi ability to deny Israeli overflight would be limited to their fighters.

 

[Totentanz]

Iran is cooked.

Definitely some serious business going on behind the scenes. Tel Aviv to Tehran is 965 mi. straight line. Add in some of the strikes have been far south and it becomes way more than 1000 miles. They have to be using a bunch of their F-16s and 15s, both of which have about 500 mi range, unless outfitted with extra fuel tanks. Doubtful, we all know what they're hauling and it's not more gas. Israel has 7-KC-130H refuelers, and 7-707 refuelers. None of these are stealth.

What's going on with airspace? Israel to Iran flight path goes straight through Iraq. Iraq has over 30 fighter jets, F-16s and Czech L-159s, plus Pantsir air defense systems. They still won't let you in their country with an Israeli passport stamp. Hard to believe they're letting sorties fly by unimpeded to smash on their big buddy Iran, but that's exactly what's happening. People think Iran has huge sway in Iraq still, but most of that is gone. The mortal enemies are flying by a few times day and night untouched. Just a little rocket retaliation from militia in the desert. People have been waiting years wishing they would bomb Iran and now it's game on.

FWIW, SA-22/Pantsir is modern/advanced, but it’s a short range system designed for point defense of a high-value location, not denial of an entire area. I haven’t put a ton of research into this but based on the list quoted above would expect that Iraqi ability to deny Israeli overflight would be limited to their fighters.

Another thought/stream of consciousness… if I were playing Israel’s cards and I had to conduct SEAD vs Iraqi air defense and I don’t want to carry more than necessary (ie I don’t want to task aircraft/munitions to that as well as what I’m carrying to Iran), I’d let Mossad do Mossad things in northern Iraq to achieve it. Which makes me wonder if the part that we aren’t seeing is a cyber capability denying Iraqi air surveillance and ability to respond. (If the Iraqis have no clue what’s flying overhead, I doubt they’re going to say it out loud, and that cyber capability from Israel would surprise me 0%)

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

Another thought/stream of consciousness… if I were playing Israel’s cards and I had to conduct SEAD vs Iraqi air defense and I don’t want to carry more than necessary (ie I don’t want to task aircraft/munitions to that as well as what I’m carrying to Iran), I’d let Mossad do Mossad things in northern Iraq to achieve it. Which makes me wonder if the part that we aren’t seeing is a cyber capability denying Iraqi air surveillance and ability to respond. (If the Iraqis have no clue what’s flying overhead, I doubt they’re going to say it out loud, and that cyber capability from Israel would surprise me 0%)

We know Israel could wipe out Iraqs AF. The Pantsir has like a 40km range. They have other weapons too. Right? But Iraq does know when missiles and jets are flying over their airspace, which is the airspace between the two. Not just radar capability, but line of sight.

Iraq isn't doing anything. They're not even bitching about it. There's a news story they took the military off high alert two days ago.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Iran is cooked.

Definitely some serious business going on behind the scenes. Tel Aviv to Tehran is 965 mi. straight line. Add in some of the strikes have been far south and it becomes way more than 1000 miles. They have to be using a bunch of their F-16s and 15s, both of which have about 500 mi range, unless outfitted with extra fuel tanks. Doubtful, we all know what they're hauling and it's not more gas. Israel has 7-KC-130H refuelers, and 7-707 refuelers. None of these are stealth.

What's going on with airspace? Israel to Iran flight path goes straight through Iraq. Iraq has over 30 fighter jets, F-16s and Czech L-159s, plus Pantsir air defense systems. They still won't let you in their country with an Israeli passport stamp. Hard to believe they're letting sorties fly by unimpeded to smash on their big buddy Iran, but that's exactly what's happening. People think Iran has huge sway in Iraq still, but most of that is gone. The mortal enemies are flying by a few times day and night untouched. Just a little rocket retaliation from militia in the desert. People have been waiting years wishing they would bomb Iran and now it's game on.

Everything is happening over Saudi air space. And if some of it is happening with Iraqi Government cooperation or plausible deniability then that will be interesting because they have been cozy with Iran no matter how much money we've thrown at them.