Israel and Iran

Marauder06 said:
Iran has never been weaker. At very little relative cost to us, they have been neutered. Their proxies are crippled. They have largely used up their arsenal of missiles, drones, and external combat forces. Their skies belong to Israel. And us, apparently, whenever we want them to.
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I guess we’ll find out in the next day or two whether concerns about sleeper cells in the U.S. were justified.
 
Kraut783 said:
Iran has crossed the lines so many times.....the latest, being the force behind the Oct 7th attacks. The drone strikes on the US forces located at the Jordan base, the IRGC plot to kill Trump (subject arrested in Houston for the actions in NY....on a side note, the original investigation started in at the Dallas FBI office)

As we all know...that region of the world only respects force....not diplomacy.
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In no particular order.

Embassy Hostages.
Tanker wars
Beirut Bombings
Khobar Towers
EFP's in Iraq/Afghanistan
Funding terror groups who kill Americans and other's.

Trump told them what would happen; they thought he was no different than Bush I, Clinton,Bush II, Obama, and Biden.
 
Marauder06 said:
Iran has been at war with us since 1979. They attacked our embassy and held our people hostage. The fund terrorist organizations around the world that threaten our interests and kill our people. They actively attacked, and helped others attack, us in Iraq. They fund some of the worst terrorist organizations in the world: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Huthis. They completely destabilized Lebanon and instilled puppet regimes in Lebanon and Syria. They orchestrated the October 7 attacks. They regularly directly and indirectly attack and threaten our regional partners. including Israel and Saudi Arabia. Their shenanigans with the Straight of Hormuz threaten a large part of the world's oil supply.

Their flavor of Islam, Twelver Shiism, is apocalyptic. They believe the only way to bring the 12th Imam (the Mahdi) out of occultation is armaggedon against the Jews. That's why they hate Israel so much, and why they would absolutely use a nuke on Israel if they thought they could get away with it.

Iran has never been weaker. At very little relative cost to us, they have been neutered. Their proxies are crippled. They have largely used up their arsenal of missiles, drones, and external combat forces. Their skies belong to Israel. And us, apparently, whenever we want them to.

There is never any appeasing zealots. You have to do something that makes sure that they can't threaten you or your interests. This is a step in that direction.
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You don’t win a war in the air. Israel will never be able to take Iran by themselves as they lack the Army size to do so.

I’m with @amlove21 on this one except I believe we need to fully sit it out.

Also, we keep saying we’re going to war with China yet we’re blowing through munitions in CENTCOM and AFRICOM like they are going out of style.
 
Cat's already out of the bag. Iraq ain't even trying to act like they support Iran's regime. "They" have been using regional airspace all week.

I didn't want to get involved...but Fuck Iran... they were working towards a bomb maybe just to prevent regime change, but fuck them anyhow. How many rockets do they have to send clowns to shoot at the rest of the world before we realize they'd do it anywhere they could?

For those who don't know, after Trump took out Soleimani in 2020, attacks in Iraq went way down. Way down, pretty much went away. Pro Iran protesters haven't even been getting anywhere. I've heard Iraqis say they wished somebody would bomb Iran, Syria, etc. since '04. They've still been saying it.
 
Muppet said:
Side note, who here thinks besides me that Israel knew Oct 7th was going to happen and let it?
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Good question, and thank you asking it here it in spite of how you probably knew some would predictably respond.

History gives me no reason to believe government leaders are incapable of and/or unwilling to permit bad things to happen to their own people for perceived benefits to themselves and/or "the nation", at large, long-term.

I don't know if that is the case here, but at minimum it is far too early to rule it out at this point.
 
@Muppet And to clarify, by 'early' I mean that while multiple outlets have repeatedly reported on Israeli government officials' advance knowledge about the impending attack, it could be another generation or two before a decisive admission or rejection of your theory is collectively advanced to the public from the government.
 
Ooh-Rah said:
I don’t believe that any more than I believe the U.S. was somehow complicit in 9/11.
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The crazy thing is this has been pushed by Bibi himself.

“This is a fact and not a conspiracy,” a statement from the premier’s office read, asserting that at 4:30 that morning, “it was already clear to the outgoing Shin Bet head that an invasion of the State of Israel was likely.”

The statement went on to ask: “Why at that moment did he not wake up the prime minister? Why didn’t he warn the community heads in the Gaza periphery? Why was the prime minister’s military secretary only updated minutes before the start of the attack?”
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Personally, I think this is more likely Bibi trying to put the blame on somebody else so he deflect blame, which the article also addresses.
But when the PM is "asking questions" that imply the attack was allowed to happen, people are gonna run with that.
 
Muppet said:
Side note, who here thinks besides me that Israel knew Oct 7th was going to happen and let it?
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There was overconfidence, complacency and some toxic leadership aspects involved in IDF's dropping the ball before October 7th. Israeli Signals Intelligence gave warning but certain pockets along the chain downplayed it or discounted it. The atmosphere, I am told, at certain levels, was similar to that which existed prior to October 6th 1973.

I don' t believe the warnings were deliberately ignored.
 
DA SWO said:
My understanding is the 57 uses speed to penetrate, can it get the same speed from a 130, then it can from a B-2?

FWIW-Multiple outlets tracking 6xB-2 headed towards/Guam or Diego Garcia.
UK is saying we can't strike from DG, so Guam will probably be the launch point.
0300 Tehran time on 25 June is still my prediction.
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Irrelevant now, I suppose, but the GBU-57 just needs enough AGL under it; gravity does the rest. Speed of release isn't really that big of a factor; increased time of fall will make up for the difference. There's math out there for that, and it's too early for me to do it, and Trump's already made his call, so, yeah.

Iran's been thumped (Trumped?). Guess we'll just have to see what the next moves are.
 
Muppet said:
Side note, who here thinks besides me that Israel knew Oct 7th was going to happen and let it?
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Israeli Army intelligence knew things, they didn't know where or when, that's been covered. That the bureaucracy failed them and put their near side bases at lower levels of alert is now well know.

But this is like saying we took down the trade center ourselves and FDR knew when the Japanese were attacking Pearl Harbor.
 
Gunz said:
The Democrats, and some Republicans, are already joining their friends, the Iranians, in condemning the attack. There are even moves to begin the impeachment process. Same old shit, different day.

They forget Clinton's cruise missile launches in 1993 and 1998, etc
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You don’t have to be friends with the Iranians to be against involving ourselves in a regional conflict with high potential of escalation.
 
TLDR20 said:
You don’t have to be friends with the Iranians to be against involving ourselves in a regional conflict with high potential of escalation.
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I'm torn on this one. I agree this will be messy, and not yet sure how I feel about it. Definitely don't want a ground war, but also long sick and tired if Iran's fuck-fuck games.
 
TLDR20 said:
Gross. I’ll wait to jerk off today until I see the footage, but it will be shameful.

Eta: I hate that we are involved. But I have such a hard on for combat aviation I just love to see it. I am torn between where I think we should be policy wise, and how much I love to see us skull fuck other people.
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From a military perspective that was a beautifully designed and executed operation, from the diversion aircraft being pinged going west, to the placement of the tankers, to the fighter escort, to the naval participation, and then executing and getting out of theater with zero notice.
 
talonlm said:
Irrelevant now, I suppose, but the GBU-57 just needs enough AGL under it; gravity does the rest. Speed of release isn't really that big of a factor; increased time of fall will make up for the difference. There's math out there for that, and it's too early for me to do it, and Trump's already made his call, so, yeah.
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Something, something, terminal velocity, math and numbers.
 

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