Israel and Iran

[ThunderHorse]

Maduro out - disrupts flow of oil to China
Bombing Iran - disrupts flow of oil to China

China Getting Less Oil - disrupts flow of various chips and boards flowing to Iran
China Getting Less Oil - disrupts flow of various chips and boards flowing to Russia
Bombing Iran - disrupts flow of drones to Russia

And we wanting him to end the War in Ukraine?

Well idk, seems like a lot of positives.

Unlike the Palestinians who have been brainwashed since gestation. There is a significant portion of the Iranian population that doesn't hate the Unite States. Whether or not we will do enough to keep pressure on the Theocratic Government for a sustained period to lead to a regime change is one thing and I'm even sure that's the goal.

What I know is the enemies of our nation are being degraded and that is a good thing. Just as Joe Scarborough told Chuck Schumer.

 

[Marauder06]

Not a response to anything anyone else has said, just my own musings.

Like many of us, I'm not entirely convinced that this "Chinese national planting a bomb at MacDill" has any connection to the government of China. China has far better ways of hurting us--or demonstrating the ability to hurt us than some clown-shoes attempted with a bomb that didn't even go off. If they were Uighurs or some other flavor of Chinese Muslim, I could see that. But this is a chump move. "OH NO YOU PUT A BOMB--THAT DIDN'T GO OFF--IN A PLACE WHERE LITERALLY ANYONE COULD PUT A BOMB THAT DIDN'T GO OFF!!!" China is more subtle and more powerful than that.

 

[757]

It's important to note that Iran is not as monolithic as a lot of individual have commonly assumed. Only around 61% of Iran is Persian. Part of the reason the IRGC is so good at asymmetric warfare is that is also has to, frequently, police within its own borders to prevent Afghanistan levels of tribalism. For-instance, According to some sources, around 90% of those killed in the 2022 protests were minorities within Iran.

The issue going forward is, even if the Persian minority also hates the Mullah's and would like to return to a more western country, how do they view the almost 40% of the country who are not Persian and would like more autonomy? I think that is a critical question for deciding what to do moving forward.

 

[amlove21]

It's important to note that Iran is not as monolithic as a lot of individual have commonly assumed. Only around 61% of Iran is Persian. Part of the reason the IRGC is so good at asymmetric warfare is that is also has to, frequently, police within its own borders to prevent Afghanistan levels of tribalism. For-instance, According to some sources, around 90% of those killed in the 2022 protests were minorities within Iran.

The issue going forward is, even if the Persian minority also hates the Mullah's and would like to return to a more western country, how do they view the almost 40% of the country who are not Persian and would like more autonomy? I think that is a critical question for deciding what to do moving forward.

Additional wrinkle here- Iran's Mosaic Plan. 31 separate military organizations operating without decentralized control across a wide swath of capabilities, desired end states, and willingness to continue the fight.

Makes negotiation nearly impossible, 1 province could negotiate for peace while the province next door sends missiles at the Gulf partners, while 1 province mines the strait and blows up oil tankers.