It is better not to attack Iran...

[Marauder06]

Yes, I totally believe it. Once the world sees (another) nuclear-armed, rogue country out there with little consequences of note, it will spawn a chain reaction. Especially when the one so armed is a threat to its neighbors.

Nukes do wonders for the foreign policy of those nations that have them.

 

[tigerstr]

Yes, I totally believe it. Once the world sees (another) nuclear-armed, rogue country out there with little consequences of note, it will spawn a chain reaction. Especially when the one so armed is a threat to its neighbors.

Nukes do wonders for the foreign policy of those nations that have them.

Totally agree, such a development would destabilise the whole area. On the other hand I dont see a realistic way to avert it, besides trying to derail/stall the nuclear program (wth various means) and really trying for regime change.

Lots of people in the international Intel/Foreign Affairs community think that it could be done, but requires some sort of catalyst to get to the next level.

 

[QC]

Let's assume it's all turned to custard and a nuclear attack on Israel is imminent or has occurred. What about fallout? Would this be a consideration for Iran to consider, given the closeness of the Levantine nations and Irans proxies?

 

[Marauder06]

I think most of Iran's proxies in the region are utilized to attack Israel. If they successfully nuked the crap out of Israel, I think it would be a blow from which the country of Israel might never recover, and it would obviate the primary need for Iran's proxies.

 

[mekwt]

Speaking of contradictions... lol

i am begining to think the word "contradiction" is your favorite word. Look drug dealers live freely in the US however most are being unknowingly watched. How is my statement contradictory?

 

[mekwt]

Let's assume it's all turned to custard and a nuclear attack on Israel is imminent or has occurred. What about fallout? Would this be a consideration for Iran to consider, given the closeness of the Levantine nations and Irans proxies?

I dont think Fallout would really affect Lebanon, Syria or Jordan like one would think it would, however I do think fallout will harm the Palestenian. Most Tactical Nukes have a fallout shield of around 60miles from initial blast, and another 60 for prevailing winds, I suspect minimal if any damage beyond the point of a 60 mile radius.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I completely agree with Mara here, Iran with a nuke is going to be the most devastating thing to happen in our modern times. Iran without a doubt will attack Israel directly or through a proxy terror group. The Shi'ite Iran government has and will continue on their path to returning Persian Empire, as well as their religious genocide of all Sunni Muslims and Jews and Christians. Anyone who truly believes that a nuclear armed Iran will not destroy any security/peace in the Middle East is a complete fool.

Israel will attack Iran, probably along with a NATO task force to keep Iran from possessing any nuclear capability. If these new economic sanctions fail (and they most likely will) we will have no choice but to attack Iran. The world’s economic trade security, the Middle East security and peace and the future of Israel all depends on Iran not possessing nuclear capability.

If we already know Iran would attempt a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz with their chicken shit Navy, WTF do you think they will do if they have a nuclear capability? What do you think the world economics will look like with even a 30 to 90 day shut down/stall of oil trade from the ME, due to Iran simply rattling the nuclear saber? Much less a long term, drawn out military arms race and show down in the ME. Think Europe is in trouble now, think $5 a gallon of gas sucks, yeah let them get a nuke and see what happens.

 

[QC]

The shutting of the Straits is a hollow threat, it's been mentioned here before. Vis a vis the gaining of nuclear arms, the Iranian regime may find it comes at a big price in terms of being prudence and responsability. In other words, more trouble than it was worth.

 

[CDG]

I completely agree with Mara here, Iran with a nuke is going to be the most devastating thing to happen in our modern times. .

Read an interview with Jimmy Carter in this weeks issue of "Time". He actually said Iran having a nuke would "not be a catastrophe" because they would only have one or two whereas Israel has around 300.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

The shutting of the Straits is a hollow threat, it's been mentioned here before. Vis a vis the gaining of nuclear arms, the Iranian regime may find it comes at a big price in terms of being prudence and responsability. In other words, more trouble than it was worth.

It’s not a completely hollow threat, if Iran can’t sell their oil due to the sanctions they have two options. One they stop their nuclear program and come to the table completely (and I doubt they will) or two they continue with the development of a nuclear weapon and attempt to shut down the strait. We obviously know that Iranian navy will not be able to shut down the strait without getting destroyed by a NATO/US task force. However, if they have a nuclear capability while shutting down the strait, the US and NATO will not attack the Iranian Navy. As Mara pointed out, it will start an arms race in the ME in the same format as cold war. This threat is met with this threat; this blockade is met with this threat, etc.

The problem with the theroy of "more trouble than it's worth" is that Iran will use a nuclear weapon. They will not be leveraged by the fear of collateral damage or nuclear fallout, they will view it as martyrdom and the coming of prophecy.

 

[Marauder06]

...

The problem with the theroy of "more trouble than it's worth" is that Iran will use a nuclear weapon. They will not be leveraged by the fear of collateral damage or nuclear fallout, they will view it as martyrdom and the coming of prophecy.

I agree. Unless there are some sweeping social changes in Iran in the very near future, the Iranians will arrange for Israel to get nuked (they'll either do it themselves or more likely by proxy) and the world will be standing around wondering, "how did this happen?"

 

[mekwt]

I completely agree with Mara here, Iran with a nuke is going to be the most devastating thing to happen in our modern times. Iran without a doubt will attack Israel directly or through a proxy terror group. The Shi'ite Iran government has and will continue on their path to returning Persian Empire, as well as their religious genocide of all Sunni Muslims and Jews and Christians. Anyone who truly believes that a nuclear armed Iran will not destroy any security/peace in the Middle East is a complete fool.

Israel will attack Iran, probably along with a NATO task force to keep Iran from possessing any nuclear capability. If these new economic sanctions fail (and they most likely will) we will have no choice but to attack Iran. The world’s economic trade security, the Middle East security and peace and the future of Israel all depends on Iran not possessing nuclear capability.

If we already know Iran would attempt a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz with their chicken shit Navy, WTF do you think they will do if they have a nuclear capability? What do you think the world economics will look like with even a 30 to 90 day shut down/stall of oil trade from the ME, due to Iran simply rattling the nuclear saber? Much less a long term, drawn out military arms race and show down in the ME. Think Europe is in trouble now, think $5 a gallon of gas sucks, yeah let them get a nuke and see what happens.

Borrowing who airspace? I can without a doubt guarantee KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman & UAE will not allow such a thing. FOX NEWS is not a reliable source of information. As a matter of fact no US news agency is reliable. Thay tend to embellish their stories for ratings. Look I live less than a hours boat paddle from Iran and their is no tension whatsoever. This is all talk to see who has the biggest pants. Iran is out of cards at this point and has no more moves politically. Plus the sanctions will not take affect for another 6 months, which I may add can be reversed before then as the 6 month buffer allows the EU to conduct a economic study on such sanctions.

 

[CDG]

Borrowing who airspace? I can without a doubt guarantee KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman & UAE will not allow such a thing.

How is it you're in a position to make such guarantees about 6 different nations? You must have missed JJ sloan posting this article earlier in the thread. Or does this not count as valid news becasue it didn't come from InfoWars or some other "real" news agency?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3765304...t/saudis-clear-israel-bomb-iran/#.Txx6XyO5L8A

 

[Marauder06]

That was an interesting article.

 

[JBS]

The Arabs care about the Palestenians, and IMO way to much. ...

Palestinians are Arabs. Arabs all over the ME sympathize with Palestinians a great deal.

Huh? "Arabs" hate Palestinians. There's not as much sympathy as you might think in the Arab world going back over the past 20+ years.


Here's the Hierarchy of Hate:
"I against my brother, my brother and I against my cousin, my cousin and I against the stranger"

Cousin Pal is higher up the Hierarchy of Hate than you are, because you are the stranger (foreigner) that's all.

 

[JBS]

As to the thread content, most here know I am a vocal critic of politics, but I very much like the way we've handled Iran in the past 90 days; particularly, I honestly like how we just rolled into Hormuz without too much talk or deliberation. That's how it needs to be done. Just show up like a boss.

Our carrier out there reminds me of a Great White shark; it just surfaces without much warning, there's not much talk, and when it shows up, every other fish in the sea knows it's not there to fuck around. As soon as we showed up, Iranian rhetoric quickly changed. That's how we have to do it.

 

[alibi]

Huh? "Arabs" hate Palestinians. There's not as much sympathy as you might think in the Arab world going back over the past 20+ years.


Here's the Hierarchy of Hate:
"I against my brother, my brother and I against my cousin, my cousin and I against the stranger"

Cousin Pal is higher up the Hierarchy of Hate than you are, because you are the stranger (foreigner) that's all.

Completely agree.

One thing I find interesting is that the original British Palestinian Mandate has the area of Palestine as stretching through Jordan, Syria, and Iraq...funny how I don't see any of those countries offering up land in exchange for peace, like they demand the Israeli's do. I have some sympathy for the Palestinian people (I wonder if they realize they are getting played for fools), but unless the Arab countries actually sit down and iron out a deal with Israel in good faith that has them sacrificing something (Instead of trying to gradually erode Israeli influence), fuck them.

 

[JBS]

Incidentally, what I jokingly refer to as the "Hierarchy of Hate" is actually an old Bedouin tribal saying that sort of defines the parameters of loyalty among many Pan-Arabic, Semitic, and North African people.

It's amazing how the human race will allow medieval, tribal, and ancient ideas derived from feuds hundreds or even thousands of years old to dominate their lives in the modern world.

 

[Servimus]

It's amazing how the human race will allow medieval, tribal, and ancient ideas derived from feuds hundreds or even thousands of years old to dominate their lives in the modern world.

Very true..

 

[QC]

Our legal system stems from such common law perceptions.