Yes, there's not much good will there towards the Ukraine if you consider the separatist events 1945-47 and even more animosity concerning Russia.
Official Ukraine/Georgian Thread
- Thread starter CQB
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I agree but this is totally different, this is a potential world ender if this go massively to shit.
Oh indeed!
Long time reader and have only posted a few times here. (intro complete)
I've been following this crisis pretty closely through the available news outlets and I always enjoy the opinions/insights of this community.
With the continuation of this crisis would you guys consider this a proxy war between Western and Russian powers? Porshenko and Putin seem to have pretty open channels of dialogue but it appears they consistently say one thing and do another. Porshenko's peace plan has been laughed at by the rebels and its apparent volunteer fighters and arms flow freely across the border.
How do you guys see this playing out? Another Russian annexation? A successful de-escalation and unification of Ukraine? Just looking for any and all opinions. Thanks!
I've been following this crisis pretty closely through the available news outlets and I always enjoy the opinions/insights of this community.
With the continuation of this crisis would you guys consider this a proxy war between Western and Russian powers? Porshenko and Putin seem to have pretty open channels of dialogue but it appears they consistently say one thing and do another. Porshenko's peace plan has been laughed at by the rebels and its apparent volunteer fighters and arms flow freely across the border.
How do you guys see this playing out? Another Russian annexation? A successful de-escalation and unification of Ukraine? Just looking for any and all opinions. Thanks!
Assuming at some point Putin invades the Ukraine.
Does he annex the eastern third and stop?
Conquer the whole country?
Assuming he takes the entire country over, then what? Poland? would NATO roll over?
Does he annex the eastern third and stop?
Conquer the whole country?
Assuming he takes the entire country over, then what? Poland? would NATO roll over?
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I don't see him going beyond this. Right now the international pressure is too great. Too many other factors such as the UN, NATO and U.S allies with eyes on him.
I think he's going to want to remove all ties to the separatists in Ukraine. He's either got to back off completely or go full tilt crazy invasion of Europe.
How much pressure is really on him though? Strong words and UN sanctions? Yawn. We can't afford to get into a war with Russia, and the country would raise hell if we put troops on the ground en masse. The UN isn't going to do anything, and what European country can afford to go to war without us?
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Cross-border artillery strikes?
That said, watching made me wish we had a ground launched HARM system.
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Possibly or air power?
Consolidate his hold on the Ukraine and then move to Central Asia. So much the better for him if he can tie an "uprising" to Islamic extremists. Failing that, Belarus and Moldava are not NATO members. There's too much heat on Europe right now, but with the Ukrainian "bulge" between those nations he has some room to fabricate "rebels" crossing the border and aiding Ukr. nationalists.
Scotth
Verified Military
Prior to the downing of the commercial airliner I would have agreed with you. Europe wasn't willing to risk 30% of their natural gas imports and would let Russia do what ever. That is why sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine were limited.
Who was going to get into shooting war with someone your dependent upon?
With all the worlds attention now focused on Russia and such a high cost, in European life in the jet downing, the dynamics have certainly changed from what they were 4 months ago.
Does Obama capitalize on this opportunity, to soon to render a verdict, but they are trying at least and hopefully Europe will jump on board.
In the short term Russia is just trying to preserve what they have already gained. What happens long term will be determined on how the next 6 months play out.
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I agree, but my (honestly) non-partisan view is that he won't. He'll wait to see what Europe wants, Europe will look to the US for some leadership and guidance. We have our own issues here and despite the stakes will leave it to Europe to "take point" unless this thing escalates. The pot boils, but it doesn't boil over. Barring another major incident this falls off our radar by Christmas. Russia's not leaving the Ukraine so unless this blows up Putin's already won and our response was, is, and will remain token.
To paraphrase from Full Metal Jacket, "We gotta' keep our heads until this sanction craze blows over." - V. Putin
Scotth
Verified Military
The Russian 'pacification' of Afghanistan lasted 9 years... and guess who was in country for a good portion of that as part of the Intel machine?
Ukraine is closer.
Ukraine is closer.
Putin's a rock star. The Russian ladies love him. They think he's James Bond. He probably thinks Obama, Kerry and the EU are gay-loving whining bitches. So while the West is weak, he'll take the opportunity to clean up his backyard. He may wistfully hunger for the glory days of the USSR but I believe his goals are less ambitious than many people think. He may make a few more minor moves but not Poland. He'd be crazy to do that. A move that bold would galvanize the West. As simpering as Western leadership often appears, it has a nuclear arsenal.
IMHO, I don't think the downing of the commercial aircraft changed things in any substantial way. It's great news fodder for all the talking heads to get all fired up over, and everybody knows it's fucked up. But again, who's going to DO something about it? I don't see Europe making any kind of military move unless we're out in front of them. I doubt President Obama is going to go that route, and maybe that's the smart move. A war with Russia would bankrupt us.
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Scotth
Verified Military
We certainly aren't going to get into a shooting war with Russia, regardless of who is in the White House, but economic sanctions could put a serious hurt on Russia. IF and let me say it again IF Europe gets on board it could make a difference.
Look at Iran. Obama brought China and Russia on board for sanctions and in 2007 Iran was exporting 2.75 million barrels of oil day. Today they are at 1.1 million. Tell me that isn't hurting Iran's economy.
Russia is still just as fragile economically as they were when the Berlin wall came. It's a big country with lots of people and lots of borders to defend. They need a lot of money to make it all work.
Russia can play that game as well. They're the world's largest titanium exporter. They are a big market for several European companies whose employees would find themselves unemployed if Russia retaliates and pulls the plug on those products. The EU average for dependence on Russian gas is 25%. So it goes both ways. Europe as a whole is fragile economically, and so are we right now. It's a very delicate game with potentially disastrous consequences for a misstep.
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