Official Ukraine/Georgian Thread

CDG said:
Russia can play that game as well. They're the world's largest titanium exporter. They are a big market for several European companies whose employees would find themselves unemployed if Russia retaliates and pulls the plug on those products. The EU average for dependence on Russian gas is 25%. So it goes both ways. Europe as a whole is fragile economically, and so are we right now. It's a very delicate game with potentially disastrous consequences for a misstep.
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/agreed. The silver lining is Russia can't hurt Europe without hurting themselves as well.
 
And through all of this, no one has mentioned Crimea. Putin's a slick little bastard, isn't he?

There is little or nothing the US can do--we don't have the political will to do much of anything right now. The EU is too weak to defend themselves, much less the Ukrainians. Putin is ambitious and aggressive but not reckless; he will simply lie low for a year or so. Already, the news is crowding out Ukrainian coverage with the Israel-Hamas conflict. Something else will crop up after that. Like the Georgian incursion, Ukraine's loss of a few provinces will disappear off the MSM and off everyone's concerns will be re-focused on what the must-have toys are for Christmas before you know it.
 
As I understand NATO, specifically in regards to this Ukraine incident, is that if a country is not a member of NATO (as Ukraine is not), NATO countries are not under any real pressure to help that country out. What does NATO gain by helping Ukraine? The strength of NATO is only as strong as the weakest country in NATO. The NATO Articles clearly state that if any NATO country comes under pressure or attack that the other NATO countries must help defend it (See Article 5 http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm). If NATO were to at present accept Ukraine, it would thrust NATO in a direct confrontation with Russia. This clearly in my opinion would be the start of WW3 as Russia would be forced to then act with force against any number of the post-Soviet states (specifically Georgia and Moldova). That is not to say we should not have them as allies, but allies do not always see eye to eye or help each other out in the time of need.
 
SOWT said:
Assuming he takes the entire country over, then what? Poland? would NATO roll over?
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I honestly doubt it'd ever go that far... but if it did, NATO wouldn't roll over -- we're at least planning for it. Funnily enough I'm over there right now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...combat-Russian-threat-says-David-Cameron.html
The alliance should also look to move more military hardware into the region and consider how to strengthen the reaction times of its response force, Mr Cameron said.

Nato’s headquarters in Szczecin, Poland — which was established only in 1999 — is likely to be expanded to cope with the new threat from the east.
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http://inserbia.info/today/2014/07/...-szczecin-base-in-response-to-russian-threat/
General Philip Breedlove, NATO’s top commander in Europe, has proposed that the Polish city of Szczecin expand its existing base to help the military alliance respond faster to any threat posed by Russia, EurActiv.com reports.

According to the Atlantic Council, Britain and other NATO allies backing the general’s plans to place supplies — weapons, ammunition and ration packs — at a new headquarters in eastern Europe, to enable a sudden influx of thousands of NATO troops to be ready for action in the event of a crisis.

“The Russians have decided that they are willing to use force to achieve their aims […] and that breaks with 25 years of building a security structure in Europe built around certain fundamentals,” a NATO official is quoted as saying.
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I don't think it'll turn into much of a proxy war just because the U.S. knows we don't get much for helping Ukraine but it could obviously lead to a lot of problems for us. Sure it's the right thing to do but we know the Russians are more invested to take (parts of) Ukraine than we are to help. It seemed the only way to end it was through negotiations but Geneva II fell through (if there was even hope to begin with). Russia seems determined nearly at all costs to annex Donetsk and Luhansk and they make no effort to hide that, they actually make subtle (or not so subtle) references to it pretty often. That would be terrible for Ukraine because that's the industrial heartland while the western part is more service-sector/government administration oriented. In general, Russia has been beefing up its military, just as Putin promised all along. They're actually issuing matching uniforms, they're in the process of implementing voluntary military service vice conscription, and sweet Jesus they're even trying to improve the quality of chow! The Kremlin just released its Arctic policy not too long ago and they're planning on opening up previously abandoned Soviet bases there and re-establishing a constant military presence. Hell, they even tried to re-open an old Soviet SIGINT base in Cuba (but because of budgeting issues the idea has been shelved). Their new class of submarine I think has started to be deployed and they've been testing SLBMs and ICBMs over this past week with live-fire exercises in Kamchatka. One curious thing that's going on right now is a lot of mothers are starting to ask questions about their service-member children dying. It's obvious they're being killed in Ukraine but the Russian government is covering it up and now dead Russian soldiers are being buried in unmarked graves in Russia. The mothers that are putting political pressure on the government have actually been labeled "foreign agents" believe it or not. Surprisingly this story got some airtime on Russian state controlled news.

[All sources: DoS PAO, Foreign Policy Magazine, The Economist Magazine, Russian Foreign Ministry PAO, Kremlin PAO, NTV News, ROSSIYA News, RIA Novosti, RT]

10668954_10152413228741936_4866583925090147040_o.jpg

"Those who are searching for the truth about the fallen soldiers face violence and intimidation. What is the Russian Government hiding?" - State Department image on the US Embassy Kiev's Facebook

10519542_10152386780966936_3417980850437340501_o.jpg

"Soldiers' mothers of St. Petersburg were declared 'foreign agents'. Is that how people who want to know the truth are treated?"
- State Department image on the US Embassy Kiev's Facebook
 
xbQUHIm] said:
I don't think it'll turn into much of a proxy war just because the U.S. knows we don't get much for helping Ukraine but it could obviously lead to a lot of problems for us.
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Which is WHY we should use surrogate forces as a tool to forge our foreign policy, which should be "anything and everything to piss off Putin". Jan 2017 perhaps?
 
Which is pretty much what we're doing right now. We're helping Ukraine by sending uniforms, rations, tents, body armor, and NVGs on the record - who knows about off the record. As far as pissing off Russia, it seems like we don't have to try that much to do so. The sanctions are biting them in the ass and they're pretending like they're not feeling the repercussions but in reality they're artificially inflating the Ruble by depleting the state treasury. They're super butt-hurt from being kicked out of the G8 and are pretty much like "F%&k it, we'll make our own economic union, and China'll be there, and Brasil, and South Africa!" We just have to wait for them to spend all their money and the military and go broke again in Cold War II.
 
Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said they watched a cargo vehicle cross the border on Nov. 4 near Donetsk as it headed back to Russia. The vehicle was among the troop movements and military vehicle crossings OSCE chronicled in a weekly report.

The vehicle had the marking Груз 200, or Gruz 200—Russian for “Cargo 200,” which is a well-known Russian military designation for the bodies of soldiers killed in action.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-war-in-ukraine-is-killing-lots-of-russians-cdf321c369
 
It will all come out in the open eventually. That said, it's not like anyone knows this isn't Russia vs Ukraine, so it'll make no difference anyway unless someone stands up to Russia, and really what will that achieve?

Bottom line, sucks to be the Ukraine.
 
pardus said:
It will all come out in the open eventually. That said, it's not like anyone knows this isn't Russia vs Ukraine, so it'll make no difference anyway unless someone stands up to Russia, and really what will that achieve?

Bottom line, sucks to be the Ukraine.
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I am surprised, but not surprised that Putin is allowing the Army to take these losses, eventually it comes out and his popularity will drop. He'll go all in when that happens.
 

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